Casper is going to Suprise some folks on Sat.

To honor and serve and soldat are the class of the field.  Caspers touch is a close third.  I don't see any surprises happening.

The FOY doesn't really offer much to the handicapper trying to cash a juicy ticket but this is a Derby prep that is bound to benefit several of the competitors. Looking forward to seeing an exciting stretch duel between Soldat and Thas.

THAS is by far the best horse in the race; if he's close to 100% ready, I expect him to roll

To Honor And Serve has too much class for these,should win on sheer ability.

My longshot to round-out exotics?.. Racing Aptitude who will run all day.Some of these will be staggering home,i.e., Gourmet Dinner,Shackleford and El Grayling.

I don't wanna say anything regarding the winner, seems I have a curse going on. I liked Tapizar, he's out with a knee chip. I love Awesome Feather, she developed a tendon profile. I adored Eskendereya, he retired with swelling in his leg... So nothing from me.

TO HONOR & SERVE

My Kind OF 3yr old

McFly, I'm tellin ya, wth is going on?...I Want Revenge, Eskendereya, Winslow Homer, Odysseus, Old Fashioned, Tizchrome, The Pamplemousse, now Tapizar... and even Big Brown's meltdown at Belmont...It seems like every year since 2007 the horses I like are done before we get to the gate in Louisville. Uggggg ! Maybe those horses who ran in 2007's TC will give us some nice 2 yr olds to watch this year who grow into sound 3 yr olds like they were(Street Sense, Curlin & Hard Spun) although we have to wait another year for Curlin's.

Gulfstream is pretty consistant with favorites...To Honor And Serve, Soldat,and Gourmet Dinner should be a good exacta.

Anyone else wondering if McFly has been a Chicago Cubs fan for the past 102 years?

@Giddyup

Haha, actually I hate the Chicago Cubs. I'm happy when they lose.

Race looks very formful, Shackelford should keep Soldat honest upfront allowing THAS a stalking trip. At the top of stretch, Soldat and THAS will pull away from field.  I like a trifecta with THAS over Soldat and Gourmet boxed underneath!

Kiaran McLaughlan gets the honor to serve Soldat his gourmet dinner after the F.O.Y. romp.

Why pick against Soldat because he has not started on a fast dirt track? He fires a big race every time he steps on the track. But 2-1 is nothing to get excited about, a straight exacta over THAS is my play. A Crossbow/Soldat daily double is in order also.

I belive that Gourmet Dinner will redeem himself with the Holy Bull effort setting him up for a much better effort. Good luck to all.

Look for To Honor And Serve to run big, he is a serious Derby race horse. Stay Thirsty is also a serious Derby race horse. Uncle Mo will not be effective at a mile and a quarter.

look for an upset, all the way around. there is nothing sit in anything, in this race. look for new comers & green horses coming around. its a race of "the new dawning".

I tend to agree with you Rail Bird...  I think Soldat will win with Bowman's Causeway, Shackleford, and THAS boxed underneath.  It doesn't sound like THAS will be coming in at 100%, which is what the trainer wants, and he may not need to be to outclass the rest, but I don't think an 85% THAS beats Soldat right now.  In 5-6 weeks, THAS will get there, but just not the first off the layoff in this company.

Agreed, TJ. Love 'Honor' but I can't decide for sure if he'll win in the FOY. However, Gulfstream is usually fairly consistant with favorites. Look for an exciting stretch run with him and Soldat, 'Dinner could be third or fourth, it'll be close between him and Casper. *knocks on wood* go ahead, call me superstitious!

Call me crazy but I am for Shackleford and Racing Aptitude.

I am taking a stand against THAS.

He has only won two end of season stakes at AQU vs. short fields in slow time.  He won easily on uncontested leads and the only horse of note he beat was Mucho Macho Man who was forced out of his game to provide token pace pressure.  I think Mott will not push him in this race and will be satisfied if he is a good 3rd or 4th.  I expect Casper's Touch, Soldat, andGourmet Dinner to slug it out in this one.  THAS may win in his next if as good as some think.

(1) Soldat

(2)Bowmans Causeway

(3) THAS

SOLDAT

TO HONOR AND SERVE

GOURMET DINNER

SOLDAT

TO HONOR AND SERVE

SHACKLEFORD

No matter the pace, Soldat will have the edge coming home.

JuneBugHorsePlay: Ibid  -- though I have a sneaky hope that Bowman's Causeway takes it instead.  Looks good long.

On the other hand, rememaber that I also picked Black N Beauty in the Holy Bull -- and I think it's better that he went back to the 7F Hutcheson.  Looks good short.

(And I keep getting THAS's name mixed up with the TO Police Force Motto: To Serve and Protect.  If THAS wins the Derby, I will forever after continue to be so confused)

Soldat has the run the distance, is fit and should easily win.

Shackeford to complete the excata

I agree with the statement above in that THAS will not be fully cranked for this race and this is SOldats race to lose. Soldat is better than most people think THAS is not all that. Soldat and the field for the exacta box!

Soldat

Casper's Touch

THAS

Gourmet Dinner

Soldat will probably blast this field but who really cares when Uncle Mo is at least 10 lengths better than anyone else if he was ever asked for his best. Stay Thirsty is a toss in the Gotham. His pedigree doesn't mean anything because the longer he goes the slower he gets. Uncle Mo if anyone bothered to check his pedigree is full of an equal amount of speed and stamina and he's running to it. I don't know why so any people on this site say he won't win the Derby coming off the most dominant 2 year old campaign ever but Smarty Jones, Barbaro, and Big Brown who weren't as fast were locks to win the Derby even though they were much slower than Mo.

Love Soldat and dont think that THAS will be cranked up...I think that Casper's Touch and Bowman's Causeway could make it interesting.

FYI,   Soldat's big performance on the slop was aided by a speed bias. The closers were at a severe disadvantage that day.  gonna have to prove he can win on a level playing field.  nonetheless, have to respect his class. will be using Bowman's Causeway as a longshot in all my tri's.  Good luck!

1) THAS

2) Casper's Touch

3) Soldat

4) Bowman's Causeway

Soldat. Kieran McLaughlin one of the very good underrated trainers in the game. He wouldnt be ehre if he didnt think he could win.

THAS got away with a 24 opening 1/4 in the Nashua and a 24 1/5 opening 1/4 in the Remsen. How could anyone possibly think that he will be on the lead? Soldat should have his way with this field, earning his due respect on a fast track.

Good luck to all

To Honor and Serve /over/ Soldat /over/

Casper's Touch-Bowman's Causway-Shackleford... fighting it out for 3rd, ...and showing us all that evening with all that earnings $$ that Gourmet Dinner (Trippi) isn't bred for more than a mile and has the speed of a Minqua Turtle ...

I live here in Miami and let me tell you there hasnt been any significant rain in awhile.It wouldnt surprise me if a horse such as gourmet dinner won the FOY with such a hard surface that the track should be tommorrow.It is also windy right now which helps keep a hard track dry even if they water it.Speed should carry in the FOY barring any extreme change in the weather from recent pattern.

THAS got a 102 BSF in his last - hardly slow. He won't be on the lead tomorrow - he can rate, he's done it before.

@ Fran Loszynski, once again Fran we agree:

Soldat

To Honor and Serve

Gourmet Dinner

$5 tri -  Soldat/all/thas,bowmn

$1 sup- bow,thas/soldat/all/thas, bow, cap

$15 cigar, $12 Martinis..............Telling Coldfacts I told you so........priceless:)

the illum

good info,  thanks. I'll be watching for that in the races leading up. Good luck to you.

I believe that To Honor and Serve will come up a bit short in his bid to win the Foutain of Youth at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, and here is why. He may be vunerable at the mile and eighth distance coming off such a long lay-off. For some reason I see him losing in deep stretch. And this leaves me to believe that Soldat will be the horse that beats THAS. Starting from the rail, jockey Alan Garcia should be able to get good early position and possibly even grab the lead while saving ground all at the same time. If the other speedsters don't show their best foot early, he could end up setting slow fractions and wiring the field. And if the other runners do show early speed, Soldat has enough tactical speed to sit off the pace and make a nice sustained move and run em down in the lane. Soldat's allowance win at Gulfstream in his last start was very impressive and it earned him a nice triple digit Beyer. This Kiarnan McLaughlin trained runner will be a handful on Saturday. I also like Casper's Touch, but I think he may be in a bit over his head. He's a big colt, who is still learning the game, and might need a few more tune-ups before he's ready for the big time. Still I wouldn't toss him. I think Shackleford is a horse to throw in the exotics as well. He beat Casper's Touch in his last race, and looked good doing it.  So here's how I think the Foutain of Youth will shake down in order. (Win) Soldat, (Place) To Honor and Serve, (Show) Shackleford, Caspers Touch.  

3/5 w 3/5 w all = $12

3/5 w all w 3/5 = $14

all w 3/5 w 3/5 = $16

Small wager with big reward if track turns up cuppy...that last panel could wipe out the chalk if the pace gets too hot.

Bowman's Causeway...............

This race looks like the don on paper. Closer wins,To much speed up front. $10 exacta key, 2 over 1,4,5

I think Bill Mott has the goods this year and he's more than due to win his first Derby. To Honor and Serve is a classic Derby name. Both he and Uncle Mo will distance themselves in this better than average crop. It's going to be fun watching these two do battle! Let's hope they both make it to the the Triple Crown.

looking fora great meal.

Soldat will win.

I wish I had read the race preview first.  I wouldn't have changed my 1st two picks, but I probably would have placed the rest a little differently.

bowman's causeway out of giant causeway is going to be the long shot in the superfecta mix.  

Betsy you have to read the past performances. In the Champagne on a track that wasn't suped up Uncle Mo beat Mountain Town by 4 and 3 quarters of a length in 1:34.2 under a hand ride dueling through six furlongs in 1:10.2 while in hand and getting his final quarter in 24 flat. The final time was a fifth of a second off the stakes record and Mo only gets a 94 beyer when he probably ran anywhere from a 105 to a 110. In the Remson To Honor and Serve beat Mountain Town by 5 lengths getting his fourth quarter in 25.3 and his final eighth in 13.2 and he gets a 102 beyer? Give me a break. That beyer should have been somewhere around 90 which is right on because another eighth and To Honor and Serve would have went a mile and a quarter in about 2:04. Beyer just doesn't like Pletcher's struggle in Triple Crown races but it's not Todd's fault that his owners gave him precocious 2 year olds who were bred to win early. It's a misconception that he runs his 3 year olds into the ground because all he wants to be is a successful Triple Crown trainer. He actually did a pretty good job at getting sprinters like More Than Ready to finish fourth in the Derby.

The race confirmed what I had been thinking. 1) That Soldat was best going into the race and would win and 2) that THAS is way over-rated

This is what I had for The FOY

1st- Soldat

2nd- To Honor And Serve

3rd- Gourmet Dinner

I was sooo close!

Like I said on other blogs onhere, To Honor and Serve is too slow and wouldn't win the FOY even in a small weak field and I aslo said Soldat would win easy because of the weak field he was facing. So lets see, who will will win the Derby? Oh I know, Uncle Mo!

Can anyone tell me what happened to Black N beauty for him to run last in the Hutchenson. He was spectacualr two races back running away from a good allowance field. He looked like he flattened out in the Holy Bull when finishing fourth and I though, Ok he's a miler at best. But what I saw yesterday makes me think something is wrong with him, he's injured or sick. Anyone know?

I was getting ready to box my picks

Soldat, To Honor and Serve and Gourmet Dinner. My car broke down and didn't make it. GEEEEEEE Wilikers. We are on a roll Katherine though, so everybody

ELITE ALEX TRIPLE CROWN.

SOLDAT SECOND

TO HONOR AND SERVE THIRD

Tim,

I have to keep reminding all of you Pletcher groupies that 2010 is over. Enjoy your big wins over Mountain Town and Boys @ Tosconova. Mo has 3 career races to date, Soldat just completed his 8th career race. Have fun eating chalk in the Timely Useless and Wood Memorial. Please let me know when Mo wins a graded stakes race in 2011.

THAS did not look good the last 1/4. I know he needed the race but it was a poor third.

Wow!  I got #4 thru #8 in the right order of finish, but the top three out of order.  

Had Honor to win ... Soldat for place ... and Dinner for show.

Best I've ever done with a bunch like those fellas.  

No that the dust has settled from Saturdays FOY let's make some notes for future Derby preps. First, Casper's Touch and Shakelford are phonies and should be taken off of the Derby trail. No I will agree that Soldat looked impressive in winning the FOY but let me ask a simple question. Name me a horse that has come from 10 lengths off the pace to win a stakes race at Gulfstream? I have never in all my years for handicapping seen such a speed bias at any track! If your a follower of Bris ratings all you have to do is bet the E's and the E/P's and stand by the window to collect. Like I said earlier Soldat did look good in winning but let's not make him the favorite for the Kentucky Derby just yet. He is now pointing to the Florida Derby and unless Gulstream corrects the speed bias he will probably wire the field again. I hope Nick Zito realizes this with Dialed In and waits to see if the track changes from such a profound speed bias. If this bias continues Zito should be looking at the Louisiana Derby or the Wood.

My last post should have read, Soldat has 7 career starts.

The last Fountain of Youth winner to win the Kentucky Derby was Thunder Gulch in 1995. The best a Fountain of Youth winner has done in the Kentucky Derby since they lengthened it to 9f is 10th (High Fly), and half of them haven't even made it to the gate. Not very encouraging, is it?