2011 Florida Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

Who will win the 2011 Florida Derby? Who will finish last? Is it Soldat's race? Will Dialed In be flying late? Can Flashpoint carry that speed? Which son of Bernardini (To Honor and Serve, Stay Thirsty) will get home first? Now is your chance to see how your picks stack up against the rest of the BloodHorse.com community.

Need more information about the Florida Derby? Read the race preview, or watch That Handicapping Show.

To participate, use your cursor to drag the selections on the left (currently arranged in post position order) to the blank placeholders on the right. Once you have completed ranking all of the horses, submit your entries and compare your results to the rest of the community. A first place ranking will earn 7 points, second place receives 6 points, and so on.    

90 Comments

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Johnny in Arizona

Great field, but watch a couple of entries disappoint us all. My picks are....Stay Thirsty for the win...Soldat places...and Dialed In to show.

01 Apr 2011 6:33 PM
Dawna

Soldat is the one to beat, but I'm pulling for To Honor and Serve still to at least place >.> Dialed In has shown nothing but class, so he's up there as my #2.

01 Apr 2011 6:34 PM
todd winne

dialed in is dialed in

01 Apr 2011 6:42 PM
early speed

Flashpoint (if he is as good as I hear he is)

Soldat

Dialed In

Stay Thirsty

To Honor And Serve

Shackleford

Arch Traveller

Bowman's Causeway

01 Apr 2011 7:15 PM
Ranagulzion

This is no prep race.  It is a true Derby and the winner, provided that he comes out of it healthy and is able to recover in five weeks, is gonna take some beating at Churchill Downs.  My top three: 1) Dialed In 2) Bowman's Causeway 3) Flashpoint (if he gets comfortable on the lead and stays the trip we could have a runaway winner and track record - that's my sneaky suspicion about how good this colt is).

It appears that eyeryone is in it to win it and thats great for racing.  Great spectacle.

01 Apr 2011 8:00 PM
KAM

I think Dialed In and Soldat are the ones to beat but watch one of the longshots get up and get the win.

01 Apr 2011 8:01 PM
gyt moran

Class always tells! (Mott)

01 Apr 2011 8:07 PM
Peggie

Stay Thirsty

Dialed In

Soldat

To Honor and Serve

Shackelford

Bowman's Causeway

Arch Traveller

Flashpoint

01 Apr 2011 8:13 PM
skyfire

THS redeems himself, with Dialed In and Stay Thirsty close.

01 Apr 2011 8:16 PM
KC

Looking for a big move from Arch Traveler. He's tossed aside in this field of already stakes placed/winners but I think he has the potential to upset them all. Hoping for a safe trip for all with AT in front.

01 Apr 2011 8:41 PM
SnakeEyes

THAS, if he can get the trip I thought he would in the FOY, will be my top selection.  He'll get first crack at the dueling speed in Soldat and Flashpoint.   $10 EX THAS over Soldat, Stay Thirsty, Dialed In

01 Apr 2011 8:44 PM
Tom Wallace

I think that Staythirsty will win

01 Apr 2011 8:47 PM
Christy in Kansas

Stay Thirsty goes by Flashpoint and Soldat rating off their pace.

Dialed In comes late to place...

THAS whos been right with ST most of the way gets edged to show...

01 Apr 2011 8:47 PM
kalidinrs

Soldat to win with Dialed In 7 Stay Thirsty neck and neck to place. After that THAS, BC to run big over Flashpoint. Stay Thirsty has that look of a champion.

01 Apr 2011 9:38 PM
Alydarstar

Winner: To Honor  and Serve

Second: Stay Thirsty

Third: Dialed In

01 Apr 2011 9:39 PM
Sarah

Flashpoint is definitely the one to beat followed by

Soldat

Stay Thirsty

Dialed In

To honor and Serve

Arch Traveler

Bowman's Causeway

Shackleford

01 Apr 2011 9:46 PM
Mutuelbob

Soldat is a runner.

01 Apr 2011 9:49 PM
CatJen

I love Soldat, and I think he has a real shot at the Derby. However, I think with Flashpoint in the field, Soldat might be forced to go with him, to keep the pace honest, and that could set things up for a closer, like Dialed In.

01 Apr 2011 10:01 PM
vtb

Gotta go with Stay Thirsty. Pletcher should have him ready to take another step forward after his Gotham win last month.I expect Dialed in to be running big at the end since Flashpoint will keep the fractions hot in the early stages. Dontount out Arch Travler, he was a little green in his win Feb. 26 in an allowance race at gulfstream, but has had over a month to improve on that. It was hard to leave out Soldat but his trainer does not want him taking the lead, so he might get shuffled back on the rail going into the first turn.                      

01 Apr 2011 10:39 PM
Zenyatta John

To Honor and Serve

Dialed In

Soldat

That's all you need to know.

01 Apr 2011 11:06 PM
scotty

Dialed In will come running. He's still raw, but all class.

01 Apr 2011 11:19 PM
joedracer79

1st. Shackleford 2nd place soldat 3rd place stay thirsty 4th bowmans causeway 20 bucks straight super and many more great bets from joedracer79@yahoo

02 Apr 2011 12:04 AM
Ruffian

To Honor and Serve will WIN. It's his 2nd race off the shelf.  He hasn't shown all he can do on the racetrack, yet.

02 Apr 2011 12:14 AM
Seattle Slew

I think that To Honor and Serve is the horse to beat, don't count his last race because he came from too much rest. To me he looked like R Heat Lightning after the layoff she came flat but on her 2nd race this year she was supper. Johny V. was talking about that after the race. He is out of him  because Bill wants a commitment and he already has Mo.

02 Apr 2011 12:48 AM
craftylord

Soldat.  The horse has wins at the distance (2), has the back class, has speed, has ability rate, has two wins at the track, 3rd off layoff, 5 weeks' rest...what other angle did you want to use?!  This is a n2x race.  Soldat has three wins and THAS has three wins.  Two horses are precocious in Dialed In and Flashpoint...1 1/8 miles...Dialed In for 2nd...Stay Thirsty for 3rd...see you at the Derby!

02 Apr 2011 2:17 AM
Carlos in Cali

The pace should be solid so it will benefit Dialed In,the best closer in this field.

With Flashpoint setting a brisk pace and Soldat,To Honor and Serve and Stay Thirsty(blinkers)hustling right behind him,they separate themselves from the field until they reach the far-turn.First one to shorten stride is Flashpont with Soldat and THS moving as a tandem,Stay Thirsty is being pushed to keep-up.Arch Traveler who's been on the rail all along keeps improving his position and Dialed In starts making his move.

Rounding the far turn,Soldat & THS take over the lead still matching strides with Flaspoint fading badly and Stay Thirsty still in the hunt.Arch Traveler keeps grinding away while Dialed In suddenly slingshots his way into contention and....

Wheel-box Dialed In/THS/Soldat on top w/Stay Thirsty/Arch Traveler.

02 Apr 2011 3:43 AM
TC

Looking at the comments, Stay Thirsty might get slammed at the windows. I like him at 5-1 or better, Dialed In at 3-1 or better, and I think Shackleford will be the best longshot to use underneath my top two choices. He may have bounced in his last and I think he'll beat either Soldat or To Honor and Serve and give a little pep to the exotic payouts. I'm not sure where to place Flashpoint, he has a much tougher task than The Factor had in the Rebel. So I'll just place him behind the most obvious contenders. A good edition of the Florida Derby, that's for sure. The winner will probably take on the role as the "one" who can upset Uncle Mo in Kentucky.

02 Apr 2011 3:48 AM
Criminal Type

Dialed In, Flashpoint, Soldat & Stay Thirsty, not necessarily in that order but it looks like a nice superfacta to me. R Heat Lighting & Unriveled Belle

02 Apr 2011 4:13 AM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

My learned colleague where have you been? I have missed our spirited exchanges. What is this I am seeing? Mr. Pletcher has a colt in the FL Derby and you do not have him in your top 3. Does it have anything to do with the fact that he is a Bernardini? I think your #1 choice Dialed In is unlikely to be the winner. There has only been one instance where the same connections have been back to back winners of the FL Derby. Calumet Farm won the 1957 & 1958 renewals. Dialed In action is far from smooth and he appears to use a lot of energy in motion. Any distances over a mile will be very testing for him. His stalemate swerved badly in the allowance race and his momentum could not take him pass as he was one pace. Before you label me crazy take a look at how effortlessly THAS and Soldat cover ground. I have told you about his big neck. It’s a burden going that long. Your #2 choice Bowman's Causeway will not hit the board as he wants no part of 9F against this group. Your #3 choice Flashpoint will be consumed and it is ironic that the name of his second dam is Morning Snack. He will become an afternoon snack for the big boys. The winner will emerge from THAS, Soldat, Shackleford and Stay Thirsty. Of the four, I will be using Shackleford in my exotics as he deserves another chance. The fractions from his allowance win at 9F preceding the FOY suggested he would have been competitive. See below:

Shackleford Allw.     24.33, 48.39, 1:12.22, 1:36.83, 1:50.04

Soldat FOY               24.34, 47.99, 1:12.43, 1:37.19, 1:50.23

To be beaten a distance 5th suggests that something must have gone wrong. He probably came back too quickly (21 days). In his allowance win he swerved and finished the race on his wrong lead. He might have exited that race with some issues that 21 days was enough time to address. At 20-1 if he is capable of splitting the big boys the returns will be lucrative.

Some Cold Facts: In the last 10 running of the FL Derby, four of the winners emerged from the Northern Dancer sire line i.e., Big Brown, Scat Daddy, High Fly and Harlan’s Holiday. The 2011 running has four from this sire line i.e., Soldat, Shackleford, Bowman’s Causeway and Flashpoint. Unbridled won the FL Derby and sired two winners i.e., Empire Maker and Unbridled’s Song.

Unbridled has clearly left his impact on the race. Shackleford was produced from an Unbridled broodmare. Could the greatest extension of Mr. Prospector complete is résumé in the 2011 FL Derby? You never know!

02 Apr 2011 5:27 AM
AustinBnike

1) Dialed In is your winner!! He's sitting on a big one especially now that there will be an honest pace w/Flashpoint in there.

2) THAS will run back to his 2-yo form. I still think he's an awesome horse with a great pedigree that says he should be able to run all day. Don't dismiss this guy even if he doesn't win. As long as he runs well against this group he could be looking to peak on Derby day! I just hope he can rate cuz he has the speed and he has the stamina influences to be a dangerous horse!

3) Soldat is a great runner, but in both of his races this year at 9f he has had the lead setting easy fractions of :24, :48 and 1:12. He won't get that here! I think he's more like his daddy in that he's a need to lead type. He hasn't been tested yet, but obviously he will be on Sunday. Now, if he stalks and wins I'll stand corrected and move him way up into my top 5.

4) Flashpoint

5) Stay Thirsty adds blinkers for the 1st time. Don't think he's that good. Hasn't been working that well hence the blinkers. Gotham was a weak race.

6) Arch Traveler

7) Bowman's Causeway

8) Shackleford

02 Apr 2011 8:00 AM
pomdeterre

to honor

followed by a ready topeak atthe right time bowman's causeway

02 Apr 2011 8:00 AM
El Kabong

Like the way Flashpoint and Soldat are coming into the race. Flash will set the early fractions and Soldat will have the best shot of taking over at the 1/16th. I think these two are the two sharpest and will prevail. If Flashpoint can carry that speed he may upset the field, but I look for Soldat to get him provided the fractions are around 1:10 + 1:36+ . That is really the key to the race. If he runs any faster, anyone close will be toast. But I don't think anyone will be pushing Flashpoint so maybe he will relax and surprise us.

02 Apr 2011 8:07 AM
Dr. Peter

From Minnesota all of these FL Derby entries look good. I remain a Soldat Fan although Bernadini's are my personal breeding favorite. Super Sunday and a competitive race for all concerns. Dr. P.

02 Apr 2011 9:21 AM
nickie

I would not ignore two M/L 20-1 plays. The #3 Arch Traveler comes from barn that deserves a break. He was betting favorite vs Nacho Biz going 2 turns for the first time...20/1 is giant overlay imo. The other is the #4 Bowmans Causeway...barn going well, allthough I must admit the lack of AM works is somewhat perplexing, his last was clearly a prep, and is another that deserves a shot at the number. Dialed In, Flash Point,Stay Thirsty,To Honor and Serve and Soldat are all getting the "print", but as the Wall Streeters like to say "buy on the rumor, sell on the news". They may all well run but their price will be "short". Good trips for all!

02 Apr 2011 9:25 AM
kevinm

soldat

dialed in

stay thirsty

flashpoint

still a question mark on

to honor and serve after his last race did he need the race or just not as good as we thought !

02 Apr 2011 9:27 AM
smartyjones#1

i like the fact dialed ran  vs.older horses..i blame the loss on the stablemwnts jockey-he really needed to quicken the pace,,,soldat is  vey good ,,i'm concerned with flashpoint...if he's NOT pressured he can steal the race

02 Apr 2011 9:29 AM
Barefoot

It's going to be a great race!

02 Apr 2011 9:48 AM
Pedigree Ann

I don't know who is going to win this race; but I do know that it's dollars to donuts that somebody is going to declare the winner the a sure thing in the Kentucky Derby. The candidates from CA, LA, ARK, NY and KY might as well not even show up. The enthusiasm of youth, I suppose.

I've too many Derby prep seasons to take the form of any one race as definitive. My most recent 'enthusiasm' was for Hard Spun and even he ran a stinker in one of his preps. That's the problem with a 2-prep schedule; your horse doesn't have the option to run a stinker and regroup afterwards. They are, after all, only 3-year-olds and most are still growing.

02 Apr 2011 10:11 AM
trackjack

Most competitive prep so far.  They'll all be gunning to finish well.  I need to continue to refine my 4 horse ex. box for the Derby.

Soldat

THAS

Dialed In

Flashpoint will fizzle in the stretch.  They should have kept him in sprints.

Good Luck to all!

02 Apr 2011 10:28 AM
Coldfacts

I just watched a 5F work done by Premier Pegasus and if the FL derby winner does not record a time in the low 1:49 he and those behind him can stay home. Premier Pegasus is a monster in the making that is going to destroy the SA derby field. The most Powerful Force in Triple Crown history is the Raise A Native sire line. It has produced 23 winners of the last 30 TC races. Premier Pegasus will be added to the list on the 1st Saturday in May.

02 Apr 2011 12:13 PM
Your Only Friend

Its a horse race......that is why we are running ......who ever brings their "A" game will win.

Everyone will say ..."I told you so" after the race is over.

02 Apr 2011 12:34 PM
AnneM

Soldat - Flashpoint and Stay Thirsty. And Flashpoint could be very dangerous if left on the lead. I think Dialed In and THAS are overrated but of course I could be wrong

02 Apr 2011 12:51 PM
Ranagulzion

Coldfacts,

I read you loud and clear Bro. Lets meet on here after the Wood Memorial and exchange views.  I greatly respect the chances of Premier Pegasus (he's #3 on my ratings right now) but I'm still convinced that "Mo" is a cut above all.  This Florida Derby is a fan's dream.  If Flashpoint stays he'll break that 1:49 and change marker that you set, no doubt, and if Dialed In is good enough to run him down, even you will have to recalibrate your Kentucky Derby calculator my friend.  See ya.

02 Apr 2011 1:55 PM
El Kabong

Coldfacts,

Something was wrong alright, your time for time analysis in another time is what is wrong. Shackleford should have pointed something out to you, but instead you make excuses for the obvious answer starring  you right in the eye. You cannot compare times, even on the same track, on different days. There is a big reason why Shackleford received a 94 for going 150.04 for his win at Gulfstream and why Soldat received a 104 for his win going 150.23 at Gulfstream from brisnet, same track, same distance, different days. It is based on the performance of other horses running that distance that day and other factors.  That's why when they went head to head Soldat was that much better.  He still is,  so don't be silly and try to explain it any other way. Please, if you want to point out times and fractions they must be compared to times run that day, not another day, not another track, it is useless without the other variants of that day.  

02 Apr 2011 2:36 PM
TiznowM

# 1 Boweman's Causeway(he's a giant) #2-Flashpoint #3-Soldat #4-To Honor and Serve #5-Dialed In (on any given raceday,thats why it's a horse race)

02 Apr 2011 3:27 PM
William

I smell a pace meltdown and it's coming from Florida.  

There's only two closers to choose from here.  Short priced Dialed In and long shot Bowman's Causeway.  So I'm taking Bowman's Causeway for the win with fingers crossed.

02 Apr 2011 4:10 PM
GREGODM

to honor and serve "end of story!!

02 Apr 2011 4:17 PM
Ranagulzion

Carlos in Cali,

Ma Bredrin!  I see you are trying to get your handicapper's groove back in the Florida Derby. Interesting scenario you've painted.  However you're treating the big horse Flashpoint like some cheap speed.  Big mistake my friend.  I think that you need to take another look at the Hutcheson Stakes.  This colt is coming to fly like the Starship Enterprise (Star Trek) and he's going to take THAS and Soldat into new frontiers of pace and speed figures never seen before. If either of them dare to test him the effort will cost them big time.  I figure that he'll at the very least carry this field into the home stretch at a good clip.  I don't know how far his pedigree will carry him but it is very possible that he's a freak and could find another gear up the lane.  Dialed In is only colt with the finishing burst to run him down.  To Honour and Serve as well as Soldat are in a "damned if you do damned if you don't" situation with Flashpoint in this race.  It turn out to be a jockey's race but Cornelio Velasquez is quite a tough jock on a rateable front runner.  Of the "lesser lights" I think that Bowman's Causeway is coming to upset the applecart and that he'll get close to doing so.  

Every ardent race fan must be salivating over the competitiveness and promise of this race because this is a quality field and any one or two in here could produce an astonishing break-out performance.

02 Apr 2011 4:49 PM
dakota

come on now, SOLDAT get on the wagon!!!!

02 Apr 2011 5:05 PM
joe c.

to honor and serve & bowman's causeway exacta box.

02 Apr 2011 5:09 PM
Ivan

Flashpoint from the go. Reminds me of Big Brown.

02 Apr 2011 5:13 PM
Fran Loszynski

SOLDAT

TO HONOR AND SERVE

DIALED IN

02 Apr 2011 6:51 PM
Kathy

G. Gomez is obsessed with winning the Kentucky Derby.  This is a VERY IMPORTANT race for him to win.  If he doesn't win it on To Honor and Serve.  He will have a hard time finding a possible KD mount to his liking at the Santa Anetia derby.  I am going with To Honor and Serve because he will be ridden like never before!

02 Apr 2011 7:02 PM
Scott's Cause

I really want Dialed In to make that giant late move and finish a neck in front at the wire. To Honor and Serve, honest and deserving, Flashpoint winning could really shake things up and the rest of the cast, who knows?  Soldat will win, unless his connections really don't want to win.  I think I'll sit back and wager some longshot "Combo" plates and see what happens.  I'm saving the real money for Premier Pegasus in May...  

02 Apr 2011 7:06 PM
jon

Hmm...I like Stay Thirsty...but I have to say R Heat Lightning shoul run in the Derby to beat this woeful group of 3 year olds.....otherwise Uncle Mo is going to run away with the Triple Crown.

02 Apr 2011 7:29 PM
Ranagulzion

Coldfacts,

consecutive victories in the Florida Derby are rare but has occurred before and is well overdue now, hence your logic against Nick Zito is fuzzy.  Dialed In has a great shot at winning. I know that you've drawn upon Track & Field analogies in the past to make your point, with reference to the great sprinter Usain Bolt.  Let me remind you that his running action as well as that of Tyson Gay are not as smooth and elegant as Asafa Powell yet the latter will never beat either of the former in a 100 meter final.  Dialed In's action doesn't have to be the most elegant to see him home fist.  I'm sure you'll need to find another angle to talk him down.  See ya.  

02 Apr 2011 8:11 PM
qa55

shackleford, dialed-in, all, all

02 Apr 2011 9:01 PM
Dennis

well...I like the proven horse

..the one that can run on every surface, and also wins on them!

this horse is Soldat, I am not afraid

of Monkey Mo, as every year Pletcher sends out a favorite only to be injured, or beaten he was lucky last year, when he won with Super Saver!!and then his slave John Velasquez, was not the winning jockey!!wicked game!!Soldats trainer is battle tested, because he defeated Bernadini in the breeders cup classic, and knows how to win money races hopefully Soldat stays healthy, and wins the Florida derby 4/3/2011

and recuperate in 5 weeks time for the Derby, and only have to run one more furlong, while the others like Monkey Mo, who have never gone over 1/16miles, will run good but when the real running begins,

the man will be separated from the boys, Monkey Mo should win the Wood Memorial next weekend in Aqueduct, as he will apparently hjave nothing to beat, which will make him the 1-5 favorite for kentucky,and thuis willm help me to get 3/1 on my choice

02 Apr 2011 9:11 PM
furlongs

Stay Thirsty needs more then blinkers to beat this field. EVERY horse in the race outside of Stay Thirsty has a race over the track and in no way does Stay Thirsty look fast enough to win. As for who will win? I think there should be enough speed up front to make sure Dialed In wins the race. I would not be suprised at all if THAS runs a ton better and makes the first move on Dialed in and hangs on at the wire. But I think anyone who bets Stay Thirsty to win is wasting money. Good luck at the windows everyone...

02 Apr 2011 9:45 PM
Deacon

SOLDAT!

Coldfacts: Premier Pagasus will not beat Uncle Mo come Derby day, take that to the bank. Your many hours of breeding configurations will do nothing but confuse you. There is a simple, logical reason why the Raise A Native line is prominent in the triple crown, many, many more horses that are pointing to these races are bred through this line.............we have already agreed to disagree on many subjects, and this is just one more............nuff said!

02 Apr 2011 11:55 PM
furlongs

I am going to box THAS/Dialed In in a large EX Box and then Key those 2 on top with everyone other then Soldat as savers. If Soldat runs 1st or 2nd in the race the Ex won't pay that good. He will be way overbet in the EX pools cause he has those two wins over the track at 1 1/8th.

03 Apr 2011 12:10 AM
SPLITSOF12

There's only three horses in the Florida Derby who have won a Grade 2 event. They are Soldat, To Honor Serve, and Flashpoint. There is only one horse who has run in a Grade I race and that is Stay Thirsty my friends. This was a tough race to handicap for me. As hard as it was to do, I decided to toss Stay Thirsty and To Honor and Serve. I think Flashpoint will break well and get an easy lead. Soldat will be sitting in second with To Honor and Serve just flanked to his outside. I expect Arch Traveler will be forwardly placed, with Stay Thirsty and Shackleford just behind those four. Pulling up the trailer will be Dialed In and Bowman's Causeway. I can see a scenario where Soldat gets trapped on the inside and gets a rough trip, as THAS and Arch Traveler lean on him early. As they turn for home, Flashpoint opens up on them and kicks clear with a 3 length lead. Soldat is stuck on the rail, as To Honor and Serve and Arch Traveler start to sputter. Then Stay Thirsty, Bowman's Causeway, make their moves but flatten out. Still 7 lengths behind Dialed In uncorks his run and starts picking em off one by one. With an 1/8th of a mile to go Cornelio and Flashpoint are still strong on the lead running the mile in 1:36. Dialed In continues his rally but Flashpoint is too strong and closes out his last eighth in 12 and 2/5ths,to win the Florida Derby by 5 lengths over Dialed In. The final time for the race is 1:48.62. Soldat runs on for third some 7 lengths behind after enduring a rough and brutal rail trip. To Honor and Serve, fills in the superfecta.    

03 Apr 2011 12:24 AM
furlongs

Deacon

People can argue alot of things and angles when it comes to the KY Derby but one you can not argue and look smart at the same time is trying to go against a RAN sired horse on the first Saturday in May. I think Uncle Mo is a fine racehorse but between the lack of points in his pedigree as well as a light easy 3 year old season I would be totally suprised if he wins the Derby. I just know that when I handicap the Derby if I have two horses that I like and one has RAN in his sire line and the other does not, I feel much more comfotable taking the RAN horse then the other. Last year was a great example I liked Ice Box a whole lot based on his closing kick in the FL Derby but I also thought Super Saver would be in a great spot pace wise to make that important first run in the Derby. It came down to looking at there breeding when I put my bets together. RAN is the reason why I had the EX as well as the TRI. Year before that I bet Pioneer ofthe Nile and I thought on the final turn I was the winner and then another RAN horse ran me down!! Thats right even Mine that Bird has RAN in his side line!! It is one angle that you are a fool to ignore simple as that.

03 Apr 2011 12:30 AM
The Bid

Dialed In

To Honor and Serve

Stay Thirsty

I see The true speed wearing each other out by the 3/8 pole and this finish working it's self out.

After this race and "everyone" clamoring for an interview...A HUGE YAWWN is heard all the way across the country to San Anita...as Mo embarks, for GREATNESS!!!

03 Apr 2011 1:29 AM
Coldfacts

Deacon,

“Premier Pegasus will not beat Uncle Mo come Derby day, take that to the bank.”

We are all entitled to our opinions. Since the race is pending we are both winners. Premier Pegasus has a proven Triple Crown Pedigree and Uncle Mo does not. He made his 3YO debut in a Gll race against one of the fastest 3YO colts in the country. He was a dead short horse but it did not prevent him from getting involved in a 43 seconds half mile and a 1:07 three quarter mile. The Mighty Mo could have faced Flashpoint in the Hutchinson but that would have been too difficult. He instead opted for a race where he was able to set fractions of split 25, 50, 1:13. One colt went to war and the other opted for Conscientious Objector status. Who would you want in your fox hole?

Premier Pegasus sire is from the RAN sire line that has produced the winners of 47 Triple Crown races and have finished second or third 33 other times; a total of 80 top three finishers. His dam sire is from the Northern Dancer sire line. Broodmares sired by ND line stallion have produced the winner of 20 TC races. There is nothing confusing about historic facts. Premier Pegasus is a product of the most successful sire and broodmare sire lines in TC history. He has displayed just as much speed as Uncle Mo and has more stamina in his pedigree. He is a quality colt that has all the credential to defeat Uncle Mo. It might be difficult for you to appreciate but be not dismay the first Saturday in May is not far away.

“There is a simple, logical reason why the Raise A Native line is prominent in the triple crown, many, many more horses that are pointing to these races are bred through this line”

Are you aware that 300 of Storm Cat’s sons entered stud. Do you know the number of A P Indy sons presently carrying out stallion duties?  The Storm Cat and A P Indy stallions sire just as many or more foals than the RAN sire line stallions. The reason for the dominance of horses from the RAN sire line is simply because they better than the rest. The 2010 Derby, Preakness and Belmont were won by horses from the RAN Sire line It represented the 8th time this feat was achieved. What you regard as confusion I regard as respect for a phenomenal record. There is a fantastic 2YO in Australia by the name Sepoy. Watch a couple of his races on YouTube and you will see what this line is capable of producing.

El Kabong,

Again you have missed the point I was making. I stated that Shackleford was expected to be COMPETITIVE based on his allowance race. A horse can be competitive without actually winning. He was beaten 23L consequently his final time was in the region of 1:55. The times for the FOY and allowance race were just to indicate why the colt was expected to be competitive. Do you believe his connections expected him to run 1:55 after running 1:50 in his first attempt at the distance?  The pace of the FOY was very slow and irrespective of the difference in the track he should have finished closer.  Shackleford got into a challenging position and flattened out badly. This leads me to believe he did not run to his true potential. To assume that a colt has not run to his best potential is in no way an excuse. Is he in the race to fill it? If he is capable of running only 1:55 for 9F, what is he doing in a race against some of the best colts in Florida? I think he is better than his FOY performance and I am going to include him in my exotics. It’s a horse race!

03 Apr 2011 2:05 AM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

“Dialed In's action doesn't have to be the most elegant to see him home fist.  I'm sure you'll need to find another angle to talk him down”

A large neck, an energy consuming action, a Storm Cat broodmare and sire line that has produced only 2 winners of TC races in 26 years is more than any one colt can manage. I do not have to take him down. The burden of his historic negatives will do the job.  If Dialed In could not run by his stalemate that darted sharply to his right, how is he going to pass top class colt keeping a straight course?

NB:Storm Cat mare do not produce winner of TC races so in the event Dialed In win the FL Derby forget about him in the KD.

You actually have two colt ranked ahead of Premier Pegasus? I guess they are Mighty Mo and Dialed In. Well, it is clear you have no regard for two of the most Powerful Force in TC history.

.  

03 Apr 2011 2:24 AM
Kowabonga

1) To Honor And Serve

2) Dialed In

3) Soldat

4) Arch Traveler

5) Stay Thirsty

6) Flashpoint

7) Bowman's Causeway

8) Shackleford

03 Apr 2011 3:44 AM
Horseman Eric Wayne

I know we have not seen Flashpoint do this distance. But, I think he will surprise. Soldat will be tough to beat, at least by past performance and on paper.

It would be great for racing to see two horses Run To The Roses as an undefeated horse: Uncle Mo and Flashpoint.

You cannot ignore what The Factor is doing. So, he will also be in the mix. We should have a pretty large field in May.

03 Apr 2011 4:01 AM
GoldenBroom

I like Dialed In but I think I'll go with Stay Thirsty who may get a little better price to win. His win wasn't overwhelming but I still think your competition says more about you...he was training alongside Mo most of the winter and the way he spanked everyone in the BCJ...I think may have rubbed off on Thirsty. I'll be rooting for Zito but won't be surprised if Stay Thirsty pulls mild upset over Soldat, Dialed In and everyone's favorite named horse, THAS.

03 Apr 2011 7:10 AM
EL Kabong

Coldfacts,

I missed nothing of the point. You compared two times run under different circumstances and based  your decision that he would be competitive on that. You displayed their times side by side and suggested that because they were so alike, shackleford would be competitive.  I tried to point out to you that equal times run on the same track under different conditions are not comparable. You have to check how the other horses ran that time at the distance to adjust for a tighter or slower track or a head wind down the lane which longer distance races would face twice at Gulfstream Park(they are very close to the Atlantic shore where strong winds will be frequent. When you do that, I believe you will determine quite easily that Soldat is almost a full 2 seconds faster under similar conditions which their race did suggest. I think Shackleford is still in over his head with this crowd which includes horses just as good or maybe better than Soldat. So what did I miss?

03 Apr 2011 10:53 AM
angels begone

great field ! whos missing ? uncle mo of course , i wouldnt be suprised if his handlers tried to enter him in the kentucky oaks instead of the derby , god knows his candy ass has dodged everyone else !

03 Apr 2011 11:11 AM
Thats Just the Way It Is

Looks like Soldat, who has in fact rated in the past, should get first crack at Flashpoints wobbling knees down the stretch.  Hoping Billy put enough bottom end into THAS so he has some lasting power this time out - Mott hasnt exactly been winning alot lately so you have to at least ask ourself the question (despite his hall of fame status).

Arch Traveler and Shackleford are the sneaky value plays in here and the only question is will one or both pass a tiring Flashpoint for third.  

Stay Thirsty should have Stayed Home - for second in the Wood.

Dialed In's has a lumbering stride -  he has a Benny the Bull running style and will have a Benny the Bull type career  . .. sprinting.  

03 Apr 2011 11:15 AM
southern dancer

i see several folks on here are falling for the uncle mo hype thats been created by the media to draw intrest to the sport , but lets get real here , its mostly little girls and naive old widows who are on the band wagon , you ask the insiders and they will tell you this horse is running up his resume against third rate claimers , uncle mo ? triple crown ? yeah right ! lol !

03 Apr 2011 11:30 AM
Suzie

Mott will get her done!

03 Apr 2011 12:32 PM
tcc

Just going to try the exacta, trifecta, and superfecta boxes on #'s 1-2-3-4-6-8

03 Apr 2011 1:08 PM
Matthew W

I always look at things that point to a horse as sort of a reason to bet them--To Honor And Serve has two good angles, first, he needed that race--second, he'll be much better odds today--he's my bet, although it will be a task to beat Soldat--I, too, like Bowman's Causeway as an outsider--if they stalk a fast pace, look for a closer--for that matter, I hope To Honor And Serve may be close to the pace--I hope not! I want him to come from at least five back--after all, if The Factor is in the Derby, he'll have to come from farther back, so why not get that part down today....of corse, winning a race at Gulfstream has not exactly been my forte over the years--I love the bigger fields, though, Florida has those--just look at Gulfstream and Tampa Bay Downs--the Skip Away (race #9) is a nice race--I like Drosselmeyer and Gomez to run big--also Jardim at 10-1, as well as the fave, Colizeo...the best race of the day just might be the race #11 allowance--I love #1 Hudson Steele (6-1, but I don't think I'll get that) as well as #4 Deal Making (10-1 and I'll be suprised if I get that as well)...good luck/good racing....

03 Apr 2011 2:28 PM
The Bid

Some may call it "Hating", I prefer to call it IGNORANCE!!! Mo has NOTHING to prove to ANY OF YOU!! WE are fans on a blog who know NOTHING in regards to training a MULTI-MILLION DOLLAR stakes horse!! His connections are doing right by the horse and like it or not MO IS A WINNER!!!!HE IS BY FARRRRR The best 3yr. old in this current crop and NO ONE IS IN HIS Hemisphere...Believe IT or Not!!!??? The Wood will prove how FAST he truly is...Baffert had an opportunity to run Jaycito and chose to dodge MO...FACT not a low blow!! Many are going to spew utter stupidity by downgrading The Wood and The Writer by refering to "Lack of Competition"...I just ignore utter ignorance as FODDER and move on to the realization that MO IS SPECIAL and utterly The Definition of CLASS and SHINE those who prefer to knock Him instead of REVERE HIM!!!!

03 Apr 2011 4:02 PM
Zen's Auntie

Well, Crowded or not I wish I was in FL.  It does not look like the perfect track condition for closers - But the pace scenario does. I feel FP and Soldat with cancel each other on the lead.  the track is not unusually fast today but It seems to be carrying speed (the fam's giving me reports wish I was there) and its fairly hot and sounds like the tracks hardening up as they go, the humidity is pretty low for the area.  

What happens if Flashpoint carries?   I like TH&S too, who ever takes it I feel they can leave to much to do in the stretch and TH&S might get a perfect stalk.  

I havent seen a big close all day here, the winner should be just stalking. If Dialed In can somehow get a good 2nd turn  and an inside run maybe he can pull this off on good conditioning.  

Arch Traveler for Minor LS -

Most of all I Hope they all stay safe. And ask for a moment quiet for Meteore - and all those TB's who give us ALL they have.  

03 Apr 2011 4:22 PM
Betsy

Pretty awful race. Shackleford is not that good - Dialed In is, though. Everyone else was bad. ST is better than that - I assume he'll move on to KY without blinkers. THAS is obviously a disappointment - he was completely rubber legged. I've no idea what happened to Soldat.

03 Apr 2011 6:03 PM
OLD TIMER

Nice handicapping Coldfacts on Shackelford. I hope that you had the exacta.

The pace was honest, although not spectacular.

Come May, discount Mr. Zito at your own peril.

03 Apr 2011 7:02 PM
papillon

had a win bet on shackleford at 60-1 grrrr--i love dialed in but i was pretty mad at him today =)

soldat never fired was pretty much just jogging around the track--maybe he threw a shoe or something--but then again he did look pretty hot and sweaty in the post parade which made me wonder if he was ok.

THAS is this year's jackson's bend--an over rated 3 year old based on his 2 year old results. it was the FOY all over again, he basically shut down as they turned for home and was just lucky nobody passed him has he stumbled over the finish line.

stay thirsty is all hype.

flashpoint is a huge horse (physically).

03 Apr 2011 7:10 PM
Paula Higgins

I think what we can take out of this race is that the horses running here, outside of Dialed In, are no threat to Uncle Mo, The Factor or Premiere Pegasus. Shackleford was a pleasant surprise but he isn't going to beat Uncle Mo either. Soldat was the surprise here. He just didn't fire at all. A completely lackluster race for him. The rest did what I expected.

03 Apr 2011 7:23 PM
Ranagulzion

Coldfacts,

Here are some of my thoughts in the aftermath of the Florida Derby: I see where you taught El Kabong a thing or two about handicapping by your astute analysis of comparitive split times re Shackleford.  Good job. I just love it when the result on the track shows who knows what they are talking about. Next time pick on someone your size, Okay Bro?

Sorry El Kabong but you have to be careful how you rush in to tackle Professor Coldfacts (LOL).

Now let me remind you about your fuzzy logic re Nick Zito winning back to back Florida Derbies. You sock it to El Kabong but now I'm socking it to you 'Professor'.  Please check the logic of your arguments before rumbling with Ranagulzion, okay?(LOL). The final time of the Florida Derby was not earth shattering but you have to give Dialed In his due. You may not like it that he tagged Shackleford on the wire, but you must admit that it was a pretty awesome performance by a confirmed "hell for leather" closer on a speed-favouring track. His scorching late run will be more devastating at Churchill Downs, over which surface he's already sparkled.  

As I posted in the pre-race discussions, Flashpoint cooked To Honour and Serve's goose. He did it a little differently than I expected because of missing the break from that deadly Gulfstream outside post, but he prompted a brisk pace from being a close-up third and made a move outside of THAS going into the far turn that forced Garret Gomez's hand on THAS to move earlier than he'd like. That pretty much did him in, and like in the FOY he ploded on a well beaten third.  It will be interesting to see if any of the AP Indys or Bernardinis will still be on anybody's Derby Dozen list next week.  What do you think Coldfacts?  You and I knock heads a lot on here but to a large degree the track results are testifying on our behalf.  Keep up the good work my learned sparring partner.

BTW what happened to Soldat? I think that he was forced out of his preferred running style on dirt, which is to be on or near the lead.  He is a good colt but lost a lot of marks here especially since there was a question mark about his speed.

As of now the Derby elite has four colts: Uncle Mo, Dialed In, Premier Pegasus and The Factor.  The latter still has to show that he will get ten furlongs but his series of super 100 Beyer figures place him firmly in the upper echelons.

It is not a sure thing that Shakleford will qualify for the Derby on earnings but he showed that he belongs.  Based upon the history of the performance of the graded earnings system I believe that he'll get in.

03 Apr 2011 7:29 PM
tcc

Pool #3 odds on these horses before the Florida Derby were, and then after the race to closing time.

Dialed In 10-1 5-1

Soldat 14-1 17-1

Stay Thirsty 28-1 32-1

To Honor And Serve 15-1 15-1

Not in this race,but the odds on

Uncle Mo 5/2 3-1

before and after this race to closing time.

03 Apr 2011 7:39 PM
skyfire

My two Bernardinis, THS on east coast and Wilburn, at Santa Anita, did not run as I had hoped.  

Don't see anything in Florida to cause Uncle Mo a problem.

03 Apr 2011 7:39 PM
Saratoga AJ

What a comeback from being 14 lengths down entering the far turn!

Does history repeat itself?

Exactly 50 years this past Friday, April 1,1961, a small, 15 1/2 hands, modestly bred colt burst on the Derby scene with a great come from behind victory, making up 14 lengths from the far turn to the wire, to win the Florida Derby by a head, just like today. Five weeks later, he came from an incredible 18 lengths back to win the Kentucky Derby by 3/4 lengths. Two weeks later, he came from 16 lengths back in the last 3 furlongs to win the Preakness by 3/4 again after a furious stretch run. He became known as "the people's horse", the rags to riches Hall of Famer Carry Back.

And now we have Dialed In, another smallish colt with the same incredible come from behind style.

And is there really anything more exciting in Racing than the great come from behind stretch runner?  

Don't know if Dialed in can catch Uncle Mo. But get ready for another exciting stretch run from out of the clouds on May 7th. One that would have made old Carry Back proud. Perhaps history WILL repeat itself.

www.kentuckyderby.com/.../1961

03 Apr 2011 8:50 PM
Zen's Auntie

Make that Good Conditioning, A great prep race, and a LOT of want to. Dialed In got my number. It's obvious Nick Loves this colt - good for them!

God I love a deep closer - I hope he wins the Preakness for the 5.5 that would be SMASHING!

03 Apr 2011 9:02 PM
Johnny

Gulfstream has got to be the worse track setup for big races..

Friggen people with no track courtesy coming up to the window and asking the ticket guys with a friggen dollar in their hand what horse should I bet? People taking 2-3 minutes to make a 2dollar bet..

Gulfstream was JAMMED Pack..

In the paddock the horses come out for the 10th Soldat does not look all that good to me yesterday coat a little dull I waver on him he was my bet.. Looking at all the horses THAS looks wound up and ready to go thinking about him now.. Then comes the 5 Schakelford biggest horse oin the paddock trancing on coat dappled as can be odds of 45-1..I say okay Ive seen it happen before and that is why they run the race..

2$ exacta box 5 with all

of at 68-1 I thought I nailed the winner.

300 change payout.

I had abig day yester day hit the exacta in the 1st the 4th and the 10th and 20 dollars on the winner on the 9th.. It was a good day besides the mob..

Soldat I do not know.. Dialed In with a 1 1/4 is going to be tough especially the way he closed at Gulfstream. Churchill wil play different..  

04 Apr 2011 8:43 AM
joeywoge

Unpredictability!! That's Horse Racing!! Flashpoint makes a right hand turn out of the gate and never gets a chance to take the lead. Gets caught 5 or 6 wide around the first turn and his race was over. Changed the whole dynamics of the race. Shackleford guns to the lead and uses the track bias to hang around at the end and almost upset Dialed In. Soldat let's us know he doesn't like dirt in his face so why would you bother running him in the Derby. He can't get the lead!!! THAS needs to run in a 4 horse field in NY against Much Macho Man in order to win!! Stay Thirsty need to come off the Derby dozen in a hurry!! Dialed In is obviously the real deal. No one closed from that far back all day at Gulf. He's a special horse and needs to be respected come Derby day!!

04 Apr 2011 8:59 AM
Forbidden Apple

Stay Thirsty and Flashpoint were always pretenders on the trail. To Honor And Serve is just not as good as most people keep hoping for. I lost some spark with Soldat, I know that he is far better than his FL Derby race. He deserves another chance on dirt in the KY Derby. If he fails to run big there, he can always be a champion on TURF.

All of you Dialed In doubters received a wake up call. The final time is meaningless at this point in time. He finished fast and wants a 1 1/4 mile race. His big neck is being supported by tremendous stallion power! In only his fourth career start, the sky is the limit with this fine colt.

Uncle Mo is the horse who has distance limitations and will be exposed soon.

05 Apr 2011 6:28 PM

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