2011 Arkansas Derby - Predict the Order of Finish

How will they finish in the Arkansas Derby (gr. I)? Will The Factor reign again? It is rebound time for Brethren? Will Elite Alex break through? Now is your chance to see how your picks stack up against the rest of the BloodHorse.com community.

Need more information about the Arkansas Derby? Read the race preview.

To participate, use your cursor to drag the selections on the left (currently arranged in post position order) to the blank placeholders on the right. Once you have completed ranking all of the horses, submit your entries and compare your results to the rest of the community. A first place ranking will earn 12 points, second place receives 11 points, and so on.    


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Johnny in Arizona

America hopes The Factor is the real-deal. I do....Put him 1st.

Sway Away     2nd

Archarcharch  3rd

Caleb's Posse 4th

Elite Alex    5th    Watch the local jockeys because of the large field...Calvin Borel, Terry Thompson, etc.

13 Apr 2011 6:32 PM

I know now that it will be Sway Away. I was there to see Afleet Alex in the Rebel and I can remember how sad we all were on the drive home, only to find out he was sick. So, we of course went to see him for the third time in the Arkansas Derby. The way he moved up on the outside and picked off horses without a word from Jeremy Rose, then he just rocketed through the stretch when asked. Amazing! His best race for sure before his Triple Crown heroics. Sway Away too has an excuse for his dismal performance in the Rebel, and if he can rebound as well as his sire, he can run down The Factor and become a factor himself in the Kentucky Derby. Elite Alex also has a shot and I would be equally thrilled if he were to win this as well. I haven't seen him in person, but he resembles Afleet Alex more than anyone of his sons have to date. Plus he has the coolest name. I've followed both of these guys since they broke their maidens so it would be awesome for them to be the winning exacta in the Arkansas Derby. I hope they all have a good safe trip and come home sound, with a couple or more going on to the Kentucky Derby.

13 Apr 2011 7:10 PM

Why for the last 2 weeks have my "picks"  been made for me

13 Apr 2011 7:23 PM

what's up with the very good horse named astrology?

13 Apr 2011 7:33 PM

I am hoping that The Factor can cover that much ground with that blazing speed and hold onto it.  I love how he runs with his down and almost totally leveled.  Reminds me a lil bit of A.P.Indy's running style.  

This is a tough field.

13 Apr 2011 7:36 PM
Blood-Horse Staff

Dear ???, Are you saying that the right column is already populated when you go to the website? Is anyone else having this problem? Are you using a shared computer? I do notice that the left side says "Your Choices" when you start, but that is just the horses to choose from. You drag the names to the right to make your selection. After you submit your picks, they will appeal on the left. Does this help? What browser are you using?

13 Apr 2011 8:25 PM

Come on Alternation!

13 Apr 2011 8:49 PM
harold claver

if it were my wife calvin would get off and out run the horse. harold

13 Apr 2011 9:43 PM
Karen in Texas

Would love to see a strong performance by Elite Alex--either to win or place. Maybe the blinkers will make a difference.

zimmy----I believe Astrology is going to the Jerome Handicap.

13 Apr 2011 9:49 PM

I left the site and came back and it was fine but, The last time the right column was completed it is not a shared comp. I use Firefox. thanks for responding!

13 Apr 2011 10:02 PM

did anyone even notice the great ride p-val gave indian winter,just remember on the first sat.in may undercard and please get a real jock,can anyone spell sawoosh,gimme a alan garcia ride

13 Apr 2011 10:11 PM

PVAL has more talent than A Garcia could ever borrow

13 Apr 2011 10:37 PM

1)The Factor (wire to wire no problem, Louisville,Kentucky here we come)

2)Saratoga Red (sticking to TF like a stamp to a letter)

3)Archarcharch (consistent grinder)

4)Caleb's Posse (hard trying colt but class-deficient)

5)Brethren (the real dark horse here that could surprise and win it all)

14 Apr 2011 12:05 AM

Boxing Alternation,Elite Alex,and Nehro.Still looking for two more horses to complete my Derby trifecta with Dialed In.The Factor like Uncle Mo looks like a great sprinter/miler.

14 Apr 2011 4:05 AM

The Factor looks like much the best, and being in front is key with a large field like this.  I think he can make the distance.  The other 2 I like are Archarcharch (12-1? really???) and Brethren (blinkers may come up huge).

14 Apr 2011 4:10 AM
Fran Loszynski




Go Elite Alex and Calvin, a little girl named Alex Scott will be in the saddle with you both. God Bless, safe trip- Kentucky Derby is next!

14 Apr 2011 7:49 AM

Dear Blood-Horse Staff,

I have had my "choices" written-in for me three times, mostly on Haskin's Derby Dozen. This column today was fine. Anyway, I have been back to lurking and not writing anything because I don't trust computers and think I have been hacked.

But, I have been following along faithfully The Derby Trail and blogs,news, etc. silently.

I hope The Factor or Elite Alex wins the Arkansas Derby. Overall,though, my "Derby horse" is Santiva. Hope you can find and correct the problem for the future.

14 Apr 2011 8:38 AM
Simply Majestic

I am warming up to the idea that the Factor may be more than a miler, but I have to stick with Archarcharch grinding him down.

14 Apr 2011 9:12 AM
By a nostril

With 3yr olds they improve over night.. Especially the ones who were lightly races as a 2 yr old. Im throwing out the tampa bay derby due to a lackluster ride by ramon dominguez. Brethen will get back to form.. Brethen with the win, the factor and nehro closes out the trifecta....

14 Apr 2011 9:29 AM

So many contenders have encountered bad luck and been forced off the Derby trail that I half expect the Factor to be next. Sway Away will be coming hard late and he looks like the most likely to score an upset if one occurs.

14 Apr 2011 10:08 AM

As Mo was shut down at a longer distance so will The Factor.....watch the Rebel again.....who was just kicking it in.......Nehro will get up to win this and throw is name in as a Derby Favorite...........his racing style fits.............nobody is going wire to wire anymore.......the Derby is setting up for closers......there will be too many speed horses......who is going to get the best trip...........Dialed In may just be "Dialed In" for the Derby.....and we may still get him at 5-1............put him on Top and box your favorites and you will have the Exacta, Trifecta and Super   I think you're safe using all the other horses that are 14-1 and better...........no sleeper coming in from Sunland or Remington in this Derby

14 Apr 2011 10:55 AM
Jon Who

Caleb's Posse...enough said.

14 Apr 2011 11:06 AM


14 Apr 2011 11:46 AM
I Know

Hey Dickbee, if you know Oaklawn the way I know Oaklawn, you will know that it is a speed favoring track (thats why I always lose there). The Factor will win easily,but the KD? I don't know.

And Jon Who, Calebs Posse has had his chances and is simply not on the same level as TF.

14 Apr 2011 12:33 PM
Your Only Friend

12 horse field......while others are jocking around for position in first quarter  the Factor will be gone....

14 Apr 2011 12:41 PM

In a shocker JW Blue will win the Ark Derby!! The Factor will hang on for second and Brethren will bounce back with a solid effort and finish 3rd. I like Elite Alex but not sure how good he really is. Another 4th place finish is more than likely. Very difficult race but I'm looking for value. Good luck everyone

14 Apr 2011 1:09 PM
Zen's Auntie

Arch3x (my favorite little grinder) will be in the money - I agree with you Simply maj. I cant wait to see If the Factor can rebreak again and we will know he is the real deal. just speaking astheticly his stride is so beautiful to watch, I love how he covers ground.  

I really like this race, and love these guys running here for the condition it will give them going into the KD -

Good luck and God Bless to all and stay safe everyone

14 Apr 2011 1:40 PM

Dance City will run huge and I hope, win...regardless, he will run huge and I'd be shocked if he doesnt hit the board

14 Apr 2011 1:55 PM

Wheel ArchArchArch w/ the field for a $1 ex. box. The Factor will not be, dare I say, a factor. He will set the pace and then will fade to 5th or 6th.

14 Apr 2011 2:41 PM
40 year santa anita guy

i just have one thing to say , and try to prove me wrong , there was another horse a decade or two ago that worked real fast and had a tremendous cruising speed , he only beat a horse called easy goer , his name was SUNDAY SILENCE and except for easy goer being a monster at anything longer than a mile and an eighth , SUNDAY SILENCE would've won the triple crown . oh i must say i wish the best rider in the world was on THE FACTOR , like he was on SUNDAY SILENCE , but PATRICK VALENZUELA will have to wait his turn and maybe get a derby horse next year!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

14 Apr 2011 3:51 PM
Forbidden Apple

I am giving Sway Away one more chance to prove himself on dirt at 2 turns. He looks like the only horse that could possibly catch The Factor in deep stretch. With a clean break and the swift hands of Joel Rosario, Sway Away has a good chance of winning the AK Derby. If he runs back to his san Vicente effort the race is over for everyone.

14 Apr 2011 3:54 PM

Can I root for 3 horses in a triple dead heat? The Factor, Elite Alex and Brethren. How cool for the sport to see any of these win this and the derby? The Factor - front running, weird color horse. Elite Alex, the back story of his daddy, the lemonade stand girl story AND Calvin Borel...and there is Brethren. A brother to last years winner! How cool would it be...oh, I still love Mo and thrilled they found he truly had a belly ache. Going to be a GREAT 3 weeks...

14 Apr 2011 4:08 PM

Sway away from the field.

14 Apr 2011 5:01 PM

The Factor should find the wire first unless he gets riled up on the lead with Dance City and JP's Gusto.  Still, I think The Factor runs those two off their feet and holds on over Sway Away and Elite Alex.

14 Apr 2011 5:59 PM


14 Apr 2011 6:19 PM
Mike Relva


14 Apr 2011 6:20 PM

The Factor


Sway Away


Unless The Factor has a horrible break,NO HORSE in this race will beat him to the lead.  He has such a natural ability to glide to the lead that the others will be spinning their wheels.  Some may get up close enough to put some pressure on him and I hope this toughens him up, but NO HORSE is going to take the lead from The Factor.

14 Apr 2011 6:49 PM
Indiana Johnny

At a short price I will be betting against the Factor, and if the Ark. Derby's outcome is anything like the other recent preps, and the distance issue with Factor. I'll side with others,but I won't tie much money into the race.

I'm going to bet $10 win on Sway Away, and hope he improves off the San Vincente(?), where he was flying at the end and just short to the Factor. In the Rebel, I kinda think slamming his head against the gate and knocking a tooth out cost him. I'd hate to think I had to run in a marathon race after getting a tooth knocked out, I'd want to sit down and cry!

I'll bet a $1 Ex box with sway away, the entry 1/1a, #2 Nehro, and # 10 JP's Gusto. If I loose, I'll probably still sit down and cry,but, at least I'll have all my teeth!....On the flip side, I'm not an Uncle Mo basher, or downing anybody for picking him in the Ky Derby, I just don't think he has ran back to his 2yr. old form, and a lot of horses don't carry that over, and to compound it, there may be fitness issues now, and prob. not great value.

I'm going to watch Soldat and MMM in the coming weeks in their w/o's, and find a few more to put with them to fill out my ex.'s and tri.'s. As of right now, I wouldn't be shocked if any of 15 horses won the Ky Derby. Good luck all this weekend:-)

14 Apr 2011 7:39 PM

Dance City is a live longshot: a fresh face who is well-bred and connected with strong form entering this, he will be in perfect position.  Elite Alex is eligible to improve off his latest (2nd stake at 9f).  The Factor is a tad vulnerable as the favorite facing his toughest test yet first-time going 9f.

14 Apr 2011 7:52 PM
Point Given






14 Apr 2011 8:03 PM
Big Paulie

It's BRETHREN , folks !

14 Apr 2011 9:28 PM

With this strong of a field, I wish two or three of them had decided to run in the Wood.  The Factor will be tough.  Baffert does not hide the fact that he is the real deal.  The horses that try to hang with him will fade, leaving room for the closers who save ground.

14 Apr 2011 10:52 PM

I go with my heart which is why I never bet. It's Brethren for me. I know he has it deep down inside to take it all. Is it his day?  We shall see. Safe trips home to all.  

15 Apr 2011 2:39 AM

I am rooting for The Factor!

15 Apr 2011 6:53 AM
Fran Loszynski

In the Paddock:

Elite Alex to Sway Away:

"So Bro who should we look out for?"

Sway Away: "The Factor" could be a "Factor".

Elite Alex: "Okay then you on one side and me on the other!"

Sway Away: "The way Dad taught us!"

Elite Alex: See you at the finish line. Keep your head low, you have great teeth. Kentucky here we come!"

15 Apr 2011 11:22 AM

The Factor will win this easily but it's highly doubtful he'll win the Derby. He's probably unbeatable at this distance but the only way he will win the Derby is if this years crop ends up weak.

15 Apr 2011 12:59 PM
Point Given


Good luck to EA & SA.The Factor respects those dudes.The Factor's response,tomorrow "WILL DO IT LIVE"

15 Apr 2011 1:23 PM
It aint easy being good

Fran you have lost your mind but funny though.

15 Apr 2011 2:25 PM

love the factor but think he will be beat

15 Apr 2011 5:53 PM

$10 Exacta Box The Factor and Elite Alex.  Good luck everyone!!

15 Apr 2011 7:58 PM
Sunny Farm

I feel like dancing....in the city.

Go win DANCE CITY ! He was full of vital energy in his last race and still fresh and full of run. Good luck everyone !

15 Apr 2011 8:18 PM

The Factor because of the Baffert factor.

15 Apr 2011 8:55 PM

The Factor by 4 lengths over Brethern and Alternation with Elite Alex 4th

15 Apr 2011 9:34 PM

Im rooting for Brethern.... As for a longshot what about Saratoga Red?

Any comments?

15 Apr 2011 11:21 PM

sway away will be flying with p-val

16 Apr 2011 12:03 AM

Sway Away completes a three stakes win in three days trifecta for the Jeff Bonde barn. ArchArchArch is two lengths back in second and Brethren is third. The Factor quits at the eighth pole and runs 7th

16 Apr 2011 9:30 AM
Point Given

Santa Anita Jockeys Trifecta

(1)The Factor (M. Garcia)

(2)Nehro (C. Nakatani)

(3)Sway Away (P. Valenzuela)

The Legends Trifecta

(1)The Factor (Baffert)

(2)Truman's Commander (Zito)

(3)Sratoga Red (Lukas)

Good Luck at The Races.

16 Apr 2011 12:09 PM


Sway Away

Elite Alex

The Factor

16 Apr 2011 5:16 PM
Carol in Minnesota

I'm a novice but am going with what I've read in the trades...

16 Apr 2011 5:33 PM

If you watched the Rebel, you know that Caleb's Posse is a great horse in his own right. The Factor outclassed him in the Rebel.

I love The Factor and I can see no reason why he wont run off the screen, I don't think the distance will bother him.

Brethren could show up and snatch the race, but I doubt it. Pletcher at Oaklawn? Not saying it couldn't happen.

Upset winner, Caleb's Posse, never count Von Hemmel out!

16 Apr 2011 6:07 PM
Simply Majestic

Archarcharch FTW! Too bad I probably won't get those odds on him in the derby....

17 Apr 2011 7:11 AM

Mike was right!!!!!!!


17 Apr 2011 9:16 AM

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