My order of finish has one similar horse compared to the community rankings. I have ArchArchArch third. I think he is going to run a hard race and he will be right there as always, just think he comes up short. I will not disclose my top two, as I am sure I would not hear the end of it if I do.

My picks are quiet different - I don't have Dailed In, Nehro and Midnight Interlude in my top 10.

I am going for Archarcharch, Soldat and Master of Hounds

Shackleford. He's been working well in both slop and on dry, and man, what a looker he is! At least from the pictures I've seen, he would appear to have a huge chest and honestly be very sturdy and stable overall. Plus, that horse has heart. If he came that close to beating Dialed In, why can't he do it again?

Second place, Nehro. I know, I know, two buzz horses, but I've liked Nehro and Shackleford for a long time... Nehro, if he can fire again, should have enough speed late stretch to finish well.

Third, Comma to the Top. Mainly because, well, I think he's fast enough to be there, and from a totally not handicapping point of view, I gotta have a California horse. Since my original Derby picks were Jaycito and The Factor, he's my backup CA horse. ;)

And fourth, Twice the Appeal. Mainly because of Calvin, LOL.

That's right, you heard it here first: 14 19 6 3!

This is hard to do this year! I am going stay with Soldat to win though, we'll see.

I don't have a good feeling about Uncle Mo, he just doesn't look right to me. If I were his owner I don't think I would run him Saturday. I did not like his work with ST a couple of days ago. My opinion is that he needs more time. He is just too nice a horse to run Saturday. Would not surprise me at all if he is scratched; his owner is very conscientious.

Good luck to everyone and safe trips for all!

Can anyone tell me if there is such a thing as a 20 horse superfacta box and how much it would cost...LOL  This is as much a toss up as any Derby I can remember. I like Brilliant Speed, Midnight Interlude, Mucho Macho Man, ArchArchArch, Uncle Mo, Dialed In, not necessarily in that order.

Pants on Fire,Master of Hounds,AAA.Only thing that will sway me is the draw.

DANG IT!!!

There goes my whole opinion on the last blog!  

AAA draws the 1 hole- toss

Mo draws the 18- toss

Nehro draws the 19- toss

Those are 3 of my top 5 that I was ready to bet, back to the drawing board...

I am really thinking that the run of no wins from Storm Cat related runners ends this year.  He has 8 family members in the field (his most ever), so this is a great opportunity for it to happen.

Given the post positions, here is my 6 horse tri box:

4 Stay Thirsty

7 Pants on Fire

8 Dialed In

13 MMM

14 Shackleford

15 Midnight Interlude

I will also use those 6 in my Oaks/ Derby Double with Kathmanblu and Zazu.

Good luck, and good handicapping to all!

Let's just say I have the same Top 5 as the community. I tentatively put ArchArchArch on top but am in no way sure of the winner here.

Obviously, the shape of the track will be a big factor on Saturday. Shackleford moves up while Uncle Mo and Dialed In will move down at least for me. I suspect Mucho Macho Man will run his race no matter what and I figure him as lock to hit the superfecta.

The trip will determine who wears the roses. I just hope they all come back safe and ready for the Preakness.

Uncle Mo & Stay Thirsty for me, Midnight Interlude or perhaps Soldat after that. Mucho Macho Man, Santiva, Nehro, and Shackleford just don't do it foe me. Dialed In is the major question mark. Master of Hounds could be an intersting thought as well.......20 horses, wide open, who knows.  

Uncle Mo

Shackleford

Mucho Macho Man

That's the order I put, but I honestly think my actual pick will be:

Mucho Macho Man

Shackleford

Uncle Mo

Either way, these are the three to do it!

For this year’s Kentucky Derby, Dialed In will be one of the strongest contenders.  I like how he can hang off the pace, and compete well even with dirt in his face.  Dialed In has proven that he can go wide, which is a strong possibility, with a large Derby field.  Dialed In is the equivalent of a super-model with a high IQ; he has star-quality, speed and beauty.

Aside from the subject, I am a 14 year old horseracing enthusiast, and I write a blog about everything thoroughbred horseracing.  I think you all will be interested in reading.  Find me at:

bitsnbunny.blogspot.com

Bunny,  went to your site and enjoyed your writing!  Especially loved your piece about the great Native Dancer, very nicely done and well researched! How exciting that you actually get to discuss him with people who saw his races.  I have yet to find anyone I can talk to who saw him! I am considerably older than you but not old enough to have seen him either (I was 1 when he passed).  However I have loved him since I first discovered him when I was about 8 and have devoured everything I can find about him!  I have always felt that he was the BEST, both as a racehorse and sire but unfortunately he has never really gotten the credit he deserves thanks to that Derby loss!  :-(   So glad to hear that his legacy is continuing with the younger generation!!!!

When I saw that Borel drew post 3 and was the first pick my gut reaction was that they might as well just give him the trophy right now.   I'm surprised his hoss isn't getting more love in this survey.    

Gotta root for Dialed In or for Uncle Mo to return to form (you have to admit it's creepy when you say he was the 2 yr old champ who ran 3rd in the Wood...Secretariat was the 2 yr old champ who ran 3rd in the Wood...both had something that threw them off their feed, no matter the other differences...). I think those 2 have the best shot at the Triple Crown unless the lightly raced Nehro or M.I. put it all together...

i will box in order of preference midnight, dialed, pants and brilliant. midnight(athletic, dialed(proven),pants(hot jockey)and brilliant(rounding to form)

MUCHO MACHO MAN

ARCHARCHARCH

PANTS ON FIRE

DIALED IN

BRILLIANT SPEED

MY SUPER HI 5!!

my favorite all time sire is bull lea. he produced horses that eventually sired roberto, stormcat, stormbird and giants causeway. those running with the bull lea genes this year are brilliant,dialed,thirsty,decisive,santiva and shackleford. dialed and brilliant stand out here so my exotics will start with these. hope old bull lea genes fire big in derby.

Got roped into a local pool for the race and pulled out "Mucho Macho Man" on the first try.  Was not unhappy with the pick.  So I got in a second pool and ended up with "Decisive Moment"   HUH????  Had to look him up and not feeling too good about that but stranger things have happened (Mine that Bird??)  So in my winner-take-all pools, I have a better shot with MMM for the bigger prize and a far, far, outside shot with DM in the lesser pool.  But it's all fun and games; if I don't win, I'm only out a few bucks!  This is such a wide open race and unless the favorite wins, I think anyone else is gonna be considered a surprise. (ie: if AAA overcomes the #1 hole, if Uncle Mo runs at all, if a speedball runs wire to wire, etc etc...)  As long as they're all safe and sound afterwards, that's all we can hope for!

Rancingfan,

I'm thrilled to hear how much you enjoyed my blog on The Dancer!  No posters of teenage stars on my bedroom wall-just pictures of my all-time favorite Native Dancer. (about fifty) I agree completely with you that he is truly the one horse that has had an impact on thoroughbred horseracing like no other!  I will continue my "quest" to educate people to this fact!  If you haven't read any other of my articles, you may also enjoy a piece that I published on Native Dancer's Birthday and the other was my very first post which explains how I became interested in The Dancer.

Happy Birthday, Native Dancer!

bitsnbunny.blogspot.com/.../happy-birthday-native-dancer.html

Finding Love:

bitsnbunny.blogspot.com/.../finding-love.html

Warmest regards,

Bunny

Katherine,

I'm with you on Soldat. Drew a line through FD, besides, he ran that same time weeks earlier in FOY. He's poised to make a big effort. He'll like this track much better, wet or dry. Looking more and more like we're going to lose our odds when Mo scratches and rain falls. Oh well, I'll put DI, MMM, A3, Nehro under with few LS shots(brilliant speed, twinspired, 2appeal) sneaking into 4th for a meaty super. Salute Soldat!

Bunny, those are two more terrific pieces you wrote! Polka sounds like a sweetie! A grandson of Northern Dancer and a great-grandson of THE DANCER! How cool is that!

I kinda like Dialed In.  Not too sure about Uncle Mo.  I don't feel he's 100%.  Wish that he doesn't run - don't want to see anything bad happen.  Bunny, I REALLY liked your website.  I live in MD very near to Sagamore.  It's a beautiful place to drive by and dream of what was once there.  Kevin Plank has done a remarkable job restoring it to it's potential.  Whoever wins the big dance Congrats!!! To everyone else have a safe trip.  Godspeed to all.

If he is live (feeling good) I think Master of Hounds will run away from this bunch.  My super box will be him with Midnight Interlude, Soldat, Pants on Fire and Archarcharch.

I really like Archarcharch here is a quick video with Jon Court from this morning talking about his chances.

http://www.thederbydream.com/

Shackleford, Stay Thirsty, Dialed In, Uncle Mo.  My personal fave is Uncle Mo, my logic says he won't win.  Shackleford is a beast, and seems to be doing really well at Churchill.  Archarcharch might have been my pick with a better post.

I have to put Shackleford on the top of my list..have been looking at some past races, like what I see, he has a nice coat looks healthy and has put in some of the best works of derby contenders at churchill.

1) Dialed In

2) Shackleford

3) Mucho Macho Man

4) Archarcharch

5) Soldat

El Kabong

Glad to hear you feel as strong about Soldat still. Nice to hear your read on his chances. I agree with you completely about his liking the track and I think he is sitting on a big race too. I have been more and more impressed with Shackleford and Midnight Interlude.

I have to tell you I don't know a thing about betting (have never even placed a bet), I, like Zen's Auntie, just love horses and and the sport. I used to have horses and I like to 'read' them.

I'm gonna drop AAA due to the post and use Dialed in.So my trifecta box is Pants on Fire Master of hounds and Dialed in.Good Luck

Looks like it might be a wet track tomorrow, so I'll post two sets of picks.

If fast or wet fast:

1) Nehro

2) Midnight Interlude

3) Pants on Fire

4) Archarcharchy

If muddy or sloppy:

1) Midnight interlude

2) Pants on Fire

3) Dialed In

4) Twice the Appeal

Longshots who scare me:

Decisive Moment

Animal Kingdom

Shackleford

Twice the Appeal (this horse should have no chance, but with Calvin in the irons on the first Saturday in May... [insert historical quote here]

first of all i was one of the few who posted and picked  midnight interlude  to win the santa anita derby. i also last year in january posted and said that todd p  would win his first derby with super saver and calvin bo-rail would go back to back. that saying this derby is confusing but now that uncle mo is gone his off the pace style is no longer a danger.these horses  i list pass my eye test.  nehro. dialed in. and pants on fire. my pick is DIALED IN he seems to have it his maiden score at the ch.downs in nov.was special his win in the holy bull after one start was super his speed number from the florida derby was not great. but i am confident julian will get him home just in time over pants on fire and nehro for third

Dang, Rosie is REALLY hot In ever thought she could move that St Johns River filly up like she did.  Makes Pants on Fire that much more possible.

Nice pick of Plum Pretty (another BH blog) there Bunny, You sound like you could have been me when I was a kid seems like 100 years ago keep at it we NEED young people in this sport.

Im sticking with my 3

AAA MMM DI