By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
A strong field has turned
out for Saturday's $1 million Stephen Foster (G1) at Churchill Downs. Nine
horses have entered the 1 1/8-mile contest, including eight graded stakes
winners and another who has placed at the Grade 1 level. Don't be surprised if
one or more of these runners wind up in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) or
Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1) later this year.
It's tempting to side with morning
line favorite #2 First Mission (6-5),
who delivered a resounding victory in the 1 1/16-mile Alysheba (G2) at
Churchill Downs last time out. After rating in third place behind a runaway leader,
First Mission advanced steadily and burst clear in the final furlong to win by
four lengths, earning a career-best 106 Beyer Speed Figure. That improved
nicely upon the 100 he posted two starts back when dominating the Essex Handicap
(G3) by five lengths.
#9 Skippylongstocking (5-2)
is another compelling contender. If you draw a line through his no-show in the
Pegasus World Cup (G1), in which he pulled up after fading from a pace-tracking
position, his recent form lines are rock-solid. He won the Charles Town Classic
(G2) and finished third in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1) last fall, and
since the Pegasus he's posted sharp victories in the Challenger (G3) and
Oaklawn H. (G2). In the latter race, he defeated next-out Blame (G3) winner
Highland Falls by two lengths while earning a 107 Beyer.
But I'm going to think a
little bit outside the box and make #4
Disarm (6-1) my top choice. While he's not as accomplished as the two
favorites, I believe this four-year-old son of Gun Runner has lots of upside
for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen.
Disarm ranked among the best
three-year-olds of 2023. While he only visited the winner's circle once, taking
the Matt Winn (G3) by half a length over next-out Indiana Derby (G3) winner Verifying,
he snagged top-four finishes in the Kentucky Derby (G1), Travers (G1),
Louisiana Derby (G2), Lexington (G3), and Jim Dandy (G2). His Travers effort
was particularly sharp, as he closed ground nicely to finish second by one
length against Belmont (G1) winner and champion three-year-old male Arcangelo.
Among Disarm's beaten rivals were Blue Grass (G1) winner Tapit Trice, champion
Forte, Preakness (G1) hero National Treasure, and Kentucky Derby (G1) winner
Mage.
Disarm took time off
following the Travers and only recently returned to action in a 1 1/16-mile
maiden special weight at Churchill Downs, which he won by 1 1/2 lengths with an
unremarkable 85 Beyer. But his slow final time of 1:45.88 can be blamed on the
snail-like pace. In a four-horse field, Disarm was allowed to set incredibly
slow fractions of :25.74, :52.01, and 1:16.49 before blazing his fourth
quarter-mile in :23.49 and his final sixteenth in :05.90. Clearly he was full
of run and had a lot left in the tank; if he'd rationed out his speed more
effectively, he could have posted a faster final time.
As a three-year-old, Disarm
posted Beyers in the 100-103 range on four occasions. If we project improvement
as a four-year-old, then Disarm fits well against First Mission and
Skippylongstocking. Facing a larger field with more pace in the Stephen Foster should
allow Disarm to revert to the midpack closing tactics he employed as a sophomore
and fire a big effort. I'm willing to bet his best run will be sufficient to
win the Stephen Foster at enticing odds.
Selections
1st: Disarm
2nd: First Mission
3rd: Skippylongstocking
Also, I would like to
briefly mention Saturday's running of the $125,000 Chicken Fried S. at Lone
Star Park. While betting isn't available outside of Texas, horseplayers in the
Lone Star State can feel confident #1
Ova Charged (6-5) is the most likely winner among a dozen fillies and
mares.
The Chicken Fried is a
five-furlong turf sprint, and Ova Charged is undefeated in four grass starts.
She was terrific in the Mardi Gras S. and Page Cortez S. during the winter at
Fair Grounds, winning by daylight margins with powerful Beyers of 102 and 113.
Ova Charged didn't run quite
as fast when tackling tougher competition over a yielding turf course in the
Unbridled Sidney (G3) at Churchill Downs, posting a 93 Beyer, but she
nevertheless led all the way to win by a neck. And then she switched to dirt
for the Louisiana Legends Mademoiselle S. at Evangeline Downs and prevailed under
a hand ride for her sixth straight victory.
Getting back on (presumably)
firm turf for the Chicken Fried should make Ova Charged mighty tough to defeat.
There's an abundance of speed in the field, but pacesetters have won 53% of
five-furlong turf sprints at Lone Star this meet, and if Ova Charged breaks
sharply from post one her rivals may be running for second place.
Good luck!
*****
Want to test your handicapping skills against fellow Unlocking Winners readers? Check out the Unlocking Winners contest page—there's a new challenge every week! (Please note: older contest entries can be found here.)
J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
