By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
The summer racing season is
heating up on the East Coast. Saratoga and Colonial Downs are opening for
business this Thursday, and both have stakes races on their Saturday agendas.
The $500,000 Diana (G1) is
the feature event at Saratoga, while the $125,000 Million Preview S. leads the
Colonial Downs slate. Let's give both races a look:
Diana (G1) at Saratoga
A stellar field of fillies
and mares will race 1 1/8 miles over the inner turf course in the Diana. Nine
of the ten entrants in the main body of the field are graded stakes winners,
and four of them are Grade 1 winners.
I anticipate #10 Chili Flag will start as the
favorite for trainer Chad Brown, who has won seven of the last eight editions
of this race. The five-year-old mare has come to hand impressively in recent
starts, rattling off three straight graded wins in stretch-running style.
First, she closed from out of the clouds to take the Honey Fox (G3) by a neck
over Walkathon, who recently won the Anchorage S. at Churchill Downs. Then
Chili Flag got up to win the Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (G2) by a neck.
Finally, she unleashed a terrific homestretch surge to win the Just a Game (G1)
here at Saratoga by half a length over 2023 Diana winner #6 Whitebeam.
According to the Equibase
GPS chart, Chili Flag ran the final quarter-mile of the Just a Game in an
excellent :22.12. She's a logical Diana win threat, but there may be some
chinks in her armor. For starters, she's marooned in post 10 and risks a wide
trip in this large field. For another, she's stretching out from one mile to 1
1/8 miles, a distance over which she's yet to win. And she's meeting a field
without a ton of pace on paper, which could make it harder to catch up.
For all these reasons, I'm
going to side with #4 Didia to
spring a mild upset. On the same day that Chili Flag won the Just a Game, Didia
conquered a strong field in the 1 3/16-mile New York (G1). In a 13-horse field,
Didia raced in fourth place early on behind solid fractions of :23.18, :47.74,
and 1:11.92 (significantly quicker than in the Just a Game) before surging her
final quarter-mile in :22.60 per the GPS chart to win by 1 1/2 lengths.
Didia's finishing speed was
impressive given the longer distance of the New York compared to the Just a
Game, not to mention the quicker pace. Racing 1 1/8 miles against a modest pace
in the Diana should give Didia a tactical advantage over Chili Flag. Certainly
that was the case in the 1 1/16-mile Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf
(G2) back in January; on that occasion, Didia vied for command through modest
splits of :24.88, :48.62, and 1:12.01 before accelerating strongly to win by a
neck. Finishing in sixth place—compromised by the pace and unable to gain sufficient
ground down the lane—was Chili Flag.
So there you have it. If #9 Evvie Jets and Whitebeam vie for
early supremacy, I envision Didia slotting in behind them, tracking the pace in
third or fourth position. Assuming the tempo is modest, Didia can take first
run at the leaders and outkick Chili Flag down the Saratoga homestretch.
Million Preview S. at Colonial Downs
I won't try to beat the
favorite in the Million Preview, a 1 1/8-mile steppingstone to the Arlington
Million (G1). #4 Integration simply looks
too tough while dropping in class.
I don't believe Integration
has gotten a fair chance to win any of his three starts this year. In the
Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1), he didn't get the clearest run while finishing
fifth by 1 3/4 lengths against a deep field. In the Maker's Mark Mile (G1), he
was compromised by settling behind a slow pace over a yielding turf course he
possibly didn't care for; even still he rallied for third place against
Breeders' Cup Mile (G1) winner Master of The Seas. Another wet course came
Integration's way in the Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic (G1), where he raced
behind a slow pace before closing ground to finish fourth by 2 1/4 lengths.
Hopefully Integration
catches a firm turf course for the Million Preview, though the early weather
forecast suggests that's an iffy proposition. But regardless, dropping in class
should be sufficient to yield victory. Integration went 2-for-2 at Colonial
Downs last year, trouncing a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight before taking
the 1 1/8-mile Virginia Derby (G3) over eventual three-time Grade 1 winner Program
Trading. For good measure, Integration ended the year with a five-length score
in the 1 1/8-mile Hill Prince (G2) at Aqueduct, where he ran his final furlong
in a terrific :10.85 to beat future Pegasus World Cup Turf runner-up I'm Very
Busy.
I still believe Integration
has the talent to be a serious middle-distance turf horse, and I'm optimistic
he'll get back to his winning ways in the Million Preview.
Now it's your turn! Who do you
like this week?
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
