By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
The feature race at Saratoga this Saturday is the historic
$1.25 million Travers (G1), but there are four other Grade 1 stakes on the
agenda as well.
Travers (G1)
At least on paper, the Travers isn't shaping up as a great
betting race. Only five horses have entered, and #4 Sovereignty (2-5)
figures to start as an overwhelming favorite.
Sovereignty's credentials are compelling. He's already won
twice at the highest level over 1 1/4 miles, the distance of the Travers. In
the Kentucky Derby (G1), he stormed home from 16th place to defeat next-out
Preakness (G1) winner Journalism by 1 1/2 lengths. Then in the Belmont (G1) at
Saratoga, he stayed within two lengths of a respectable pace before finishing
strongly to conquer Journalism by three lengths.
On every level, Sovereignty's Belmont performance was
stellar. Despite racing much closer to the early pace than usual, the Godolphin
homebred rocketed his final quarter-mile in :23.69, earning a massive 117
Brisnet Late Pace rating. And the form of the Belmont was flattered when
Journalism came back to win the Haskell (G1) in his next start.
Sovereignty prepped for the Travers by cutting back in
distance for the 1 1/8-mile Jim Dandy (G2) at Saratoga. He probably wasn't
cranked for a peak performance, but he nevertheless stayed closed to the pace
and wore down Kentucky Derby and Belmont third-place finisher Baeza to win by
one length.
With a successful prep run under his belt, Sovereignty
should be poised for a maximum performance in the Travers, which has been his
summer target ever since the Belmont. He's the fastest entrant from a Beyer
speed figure and Brisnet Speed rating standpoint, so I expect to see
Sovereignty deliver a fourth straight win this Saturday.
His main opposition is #1 Magnitude (2-1), and I can
see where some bettors might side with Magnitude for an upset. He caught eyes
during the winter at Fair Grounds when he led all the way to obliterate the 1
1/8-mile Risen Star (G2) by 9 3/4 lengths, earning a 108 Beyer only one point
lower than Sovereignty's career-best number.
Unfortunately, an ankle chip prevented Magnitude from
pursuing the Triple Crown. But he picked up where he left off in the 1
1/16-mile Iowa Derby last month, wiring the field by 9 1/4 lengths with a 105
Beyer.
Magnitude is clearly a talented colt, but there are some
possible chinks in his armor. One, he's unproven racing 1 1/4 miles. Two, he's
stepping up in class. Three, he could face meaningful pace pressure from #2
Bracket Buster (20-1), who led nearly all the way to win the Pegasus S. by
seven lengths. For these reasons, I'm skeptical whether the stage is set for
Magnitude to upset Sovereignty, but I do believe he's the most likely
runner-up.
For third place, I'll take #3 Strategic Focus (6-1).
He's adding blinkers off a close third-place finish to multiple Grade 1 winner
Chancer McPatrick in Saratoga's 1 1/8-mile Curlin S. As a son of Gun Runner out
of a mare by Curlin, Strategic Focus is bred to relish 1 1/4 miles, and with
only three starts under his belt he still has upside.
Selections
1st: Sovereignty
2nd: Magnitude
3rd: Strategic Focus
Forego (G1)
Since I've backed a chalky outcome in the Travers, I'll
offer a somewhat more creative selection in the Forego (G1), a seven-furlong
sprint for older horses that directly precedes the Travers on Saturday's card.
The obvious choice is #4 Book'em Danno (8-5), whose
3-for-4 record at Saratoga includes wins in the seven-furlong Woody Stephens
(G1), 6 1/2-furlong True North (G3), and six-furlong Alfred G. Vanderbilt (G2).
The latter two wins have come this season, and in the Vanderbilt, Book'em Danno
earned a powerful 111 Beyer that ranks as the co-highest number earned by any
horse racing one mile or less in 2025.
But I'm willing to take a shot against Book'em Danno with #1
Most Wanted (5-1), simply because I believe Most Wanted is an underrated
talent with upside for improvement while cutting back in distance.
Most Wanted is best known for winning the 1 1/8-mile
Oklahoma Derby (G3) last fall. He's a capable two-turn competitor; during the
spring, he ran second to champion Fierceness in the 1 1/16-mile Alysheba (G2),
earning a 105 Beyer.
But Most Wanted is also 4-for-4 racing one mile or less. He
was especially impressive in a one-mile $175,000 allowance optional claimer at
Churchill Downs last time out. After dueling for the lead through increasingly
stiff fractions of :23.79, :46.96, and 1:10.63, Most Wanted accelerated his
final quarter-mile in a strong :23.56 to draw off and win by four lengths in
1:34.19.
That fast finish suggests Most Wanted had plenty left in
the tank and might have clocked an even faster final time if he'd been asked
for his best earlier in the race. Cutting back to seven furlongs in the Forego,
I hope to see Most Wanted drop off the early pace before unleashing a powerful
finish down the homestretch. I believe he can outkick Book'em Danno and spring
a surprise.
Now it's your turn! Who do you like at Saratoga this week?
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
