By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
An exciting weekend of racing is on the agenda.
In North America alone, 11 graded stakes are slated for
Saturday and Sunday. We'll focus our attention on two contests: the Old
Dominion Derby (G3) and the Del Mar Futurity (G1).
Saturday: Old Dominion Derby (G3) at Colonial
Downs
Nine three-year-olds will race 1 1/8 miles over the
Colonial Downs turf course in the Old Dominion Derby, a race formerly known as
the Virginia Derby. #6 World Beater is a formidable favorite who looks mighty
tough to beat.
Most of the Old Dominion Derby entrants have been competing
with mixed results in allowance and ungraded stakes. In contrast, World Beater
has excelled competing in Grade 1 races at Saratoga. On July 4, he closed from midfield
to finish second in the 1 1/8-mile Belmont Derby (G1), beaten only 1 1/4
lengths by Transylvania (G3) winner and American Turf (G1) runner-up Test Score,
who reached the finish line in the fast time of 1:45.56.
World Beater then stretched out over 1 3/16 miles for the
Saratoga Derby (G1). Again, he rated in midfield before launching a strong
rally. He had plenty of ground to gain in the final furlong, but a relentless
late charge carried World Beater to victory by half a length in 1:52.82. Test
Score settled for third place, a head behind the runner-up.
World Beater is improving with every start and should cruise
to victory while dropping in class for the Old Dominion Derby. He's my top
choice, but for second place I'll go a little outside the box and recommend
longshot #7 Thirteen Colonies (10-1).
Last time out, Thirteen Colonies ran strongly in a 1 1/16-mile
$100,000 allowance optional claimer over the Saratoga turf. He tracked a solid
pace in second place, took over the lead in midstretch, and then weakened late
to finish second by 2 1/4 lengths against Simulate. The latter clocked a quick
final time of 1:40.32 and subsequently proved graded stakes caliber when
finishing second by one length in the Secretariat (G2).
Based off his showing against Simulate, Thirteen Colonies
looks like a good fit for the Old Dominion Derby, and I'm optimistic he'll
outrun his odds to land a spot in the top two or three.
Sunday: Del Mar Futurity (G1) at Del Mar
Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has won the Del Mar
Futurity a staggering 18 times since 1996, including 11 out of 17 editions
since 2008 and every renewal since 2021.
Baffert has a strong chance to win the seven-furlong sprint
again in 2025. He trains four of the six horses entered in this year's Del Mar
Futurity, including expected favorites #2 Brant and #5 Desert Gate.
Desert Gate is the most accomplished Del Mar Futurity
entrant. After winning his debut at Santa Anita, he tackled Del Mar's
six-furlong Best Pal (G3) and romped by 8 3/4 lengths.
But Baffert often wins the Del Mar Futurity with last-out maiden
winners rather than proven stakes performers, and it's worth noting Desert Gate's
first two Beyer speed figures (86 and 79) pale in comparison to the 101 Brant
posted in his stellar debut win on July 26 at Del Mar.
Back in March, Brant was purchased for $3 million after
breezing a furlong in :09 3/5 at the OBS March 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale.
Earning back such a lofty purchase price won't be easy, but Brant may be
capable of pulling it off.
Brant entered his debut off an impressive series of
workouts at Santa Anita at Del Mar. Favored at 4-5 against eight rivals, Brant
rated in third place by 1 1/2 lengths through an opening quarter-mile in :21.56,
then took over and drew clear through fast closing fractions to dominate by 5
1/4 lengths in 1:02.63.
In the process, Brant defeated a quality field. Runner-up #4
Civil Liberty is entered in the Del Mar Futurity, while third-place
finisher #3 Balboa returned to crush his next start by 7 3/4 lengths and
is likewise part of the Del Mar Futurity field.
Brant has posted four timed workouts since his maiden win,
including a swift five furlongs in :58 2/5 and six furlongs in a stiff 1:11
2/5. Under red-hot jockey Flavien Prat (who has gone 5-for-10 at Del Mar this
meet), Brant is a compelling choice to win the Del Mar Futurity. Consider
betting him over Desert Gate in a cold exacta.
Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the graded stakes this
weekend?
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
