Unlocking Winners

Handicapping strategies and picks for top Thoroughbred races

May 2014 - Posts

TimeformUS Weekend Stakes Plays - The Californian and The American Oaks

Saturday Santa Anita, Race 7 The Californian By Justin Finch The Grade 2 Californian has attracted a field of eight horses to run nine furlongs on the Santa Anita main track for a purse of $200,000. A Special Offer on Unlimited TimeformUS PPs for Bloodhorse Readers According to the TFUS Pace Projector, Fury Kapcori (#2, 4-5 Morning Line) will be on a clear lead at the opening half-mile, with Storm... Read More

TimeformUS Memorial Day Stakes Plays - The Gamely, The Poker, and the Lone Star Park Handicap

Monday Santa Anita, Race 7 The Gamely Stakes By Justin Finch A Special Offer on Unlimited TimeformUS PPs for Bloodhorse Readers The Grade 1 Gamely has attracted a field of nine fillies and mares to run nine furlongs on the grass for a purse of $300,000. The morning line gives a good indication of just how contentious this field is: Five horses are listed at odds between 3-1 and 5-1. With so many horses... Read More

Pedigree handicapping w/ Brisnet.com & Doug Salvatore: Friday's babies

Nice score on Thursday at Santa Anita with 7-to-2 on Seduire to kick off that card, so let’s see what we can come up with on Friday. Churchill Downs Race 2 (click for free Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances) A field of seven runners will dash five furlongs in this Maiden Special Weight event. The two fancied debuters are #2 Cloverdale Nine (5/2 morning line) and #6 Lucky Player (2/1 morning line... Read More

Thursday babies with Dougie Sal: Churchill & Santa Anita

As a bettor, I very much enjoy early season two-year-old sprint races. In the past, I've found them to be the most profitable type of race to bet, and they've helped me endure through many years as a professional horseplayer who, for a long time, had no other source of income. It's been a great frustration that far fewer of them are being carded in recent years. Not only are crop sizes smaller but... Read More

The Emotional Value of California Chrome

Sometime between the Santa Anita Derby and the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands , I decided that California Chrome was no longer worth betting. And it’s cost me, but more in terms of prestige than in my wallet. The $7 he paid winning the Derby was OK, but I have no regrets about missing out on $3 in the Preakness (though if you loved him, $3 to place wasn’t bad). But he could have paid $2.10... Read More

Free Money Headlines Preakness Day Wagering Opportunities

Well, we didn't embarrass ourselves yesterday , as the horses we figured could win did, though with a few underlays in that bunch and neither of our longshots (Image of Anna in the Black-Eyed Susan and Valid in the Pimlico Special) doing anything (in races both won by the favorites, no less) we didn't make any money either. That's OK, though, as there will be plenty of money up for grabs today with... Read More

Preakness weekend Friday: A Special BESt Bet

Rain washed races off the turf on Friday at Pimlico Race Course, and while the main track is sloppy neither the Black-Eyed Susan nor the Pimlico Special lost any horses to scratches, and it is those two races where I plan to take my biggest stands not only today but also the whole weekend. There will be no clear favorite in Black-Eyed Susan with #4 Stopchargingmaria the morning line choice at 7-to... Read More

TimeformUS Stakes Plays - The Preakness, Plus Fri and Sat Stakes at Pimlico and Belmont

Saturday Pimlico, Race 12 The Preakness By Robert Finnegan If handicapping the 2014 Kentucky Derby was nasty, brutish, and long, handicapping the 2014 Preakness was nasty, brutish, agonizing, and almost as long. Here is where we ended up, for better or worse: The TFUS Pace Projector indicates that the Preakness will be run at a fast pace, and that Social Inclusion will be on a clear lead at the opening... Read More

Handicapping Who's Fastest Today, Not Who's Historically Fast

Granted, this is somewhat a self-fulfilling statistic, as the best last-out Brisnet.com Speed Rating is most often the Kentucky Derby winner, and in this time range the Derby winner has won the Preakness six times. Still, the best last-out Brisnet.com Speed Rating would have landed you on non-Derby starters and Preakness winners Bernardini and Rachel Alexandra as well as longshot runnerup Scrappy T.... Read More

California Chrome's Derby-winning Style Fits Preakness

A lot has been made about the unimpressive final time of the 2014 Kentucky Derby. As you may know, Old Rosebud won the 1914 Kentucky Derby in a faster time (2:03.40) than this year’s edition (2:03.66), which is pretty remarkable considering how much slower final times were a century ago. For instance, the two six-furlong races on the 1914 Kentucky Derby card went in 1:14 and 1:13.40. In 1914, the Churchill... Read More

Pedigree Handicapping With Brisnet.com & Doug Salvatore: Race 6 Friday at Churchill

The sixth race on Friday at Churchill Downs (click for FREE Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances ) is a tough and interesting Maiden Special Weight event for two-year-olds going 4 ½ furlongs. One interesting horse is #6 Stonebriar. This Two Punch colt debuts for trainer Al Stall, who has enjoyed a brilliant start to this Churchill Downs meeting with four wins from nine starts with all nine starters... Read More

TimeformUS Weekend Plays from Belmont and Santa Anita

Check back Saturday for Sunday stakes previews from Belmont Saturday Belmont, Race 9 G2 Peter Pan Stakes By Mike Beer A field of seven is set to enter the gate for the Grade 2 Peter Pan. They will go nine furlongs over Belmont's main track, and when all is said and done, one of these three-year-olds will be a newly minted graded stakes winner. Depending upon who that winner is and, perhaps, how impressive... Read More

Betting Ride On Curlin's Number To Come Up in Kentucky Derby Roulette Plus Full-Card Picks

I’ve compared this year’s Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands to two things: a roulette wheel and the NCAA men’s basketball championship tournament. A roulette wheel because most horses can win (i.e. have some chance of winning), and it’s up to the handicapper to determine which odds are better than the horse’s chance of winning. That doesn’t work in roulette where you get 35-to-1 no matter which... Read More

Predicteform Analysis of the 2014 Kentucky Derby

In-depth analysis of the 2014 Kentucky Derby including Pace Figures and Form Cycle Pattern of each starter. Please refer to the Legend or Pattern Guide for back-up definitions and patterns. The Predicteform.com Pace Figures will tell you if a horse is likely to improve or regress in its next start. Pace Figures are not just a single speed number, but rather a series of numbers that are incredibly powerful... Read More

TimeformUS Derby and Oaks Day Analysis

For Kentucky Oaks Day Analysis, scroll to the second half of this blog post Saturday, Churchill Downs Race 11 The G1 Kentucky Derby By Robert Finnegan Handicapping the Kentucky Derby tends to be nasty, brutish, and long, and handicapping the 2014 edition was certainly no exception for us. There are so many approaches one can take, so many angles one can embrace, so many rumors one can listen to...there... Read More

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