Free Money Headlines Preakness Day Wagering Opportunities

Well, we didn't embarrass ourselves yesterday, as the horses we figured could win did, though with a few underlays in that bunch and neither of our longshots (Image of Anna in the Black-Eyed Susan and Valid in the Pimlico Special) doing anything (in races both won by the favorites, no less) we didn't make any money either.

That's OK, though, as there will be plenty of money up for grabs today with that $173,323 in the dime Pick 5 paying out today to any number of winners plus 10-million points exclusively for TwinSpires.com members who hit the all-stakes Pick 4 ending with the Preakness Stakes.

The Pick 5 starts in race 8 and the Pick 4 in race 9 with both sequences ending in the Preakness, and the right approach depends entirely on what you make of Kentucky Derby winner California Chrome, who figures to be 3-to-5 in the win pool but is more likely to offer value in the multis if the Pimlico Special-Preakness double will pays with favored Revolutionary are any indication.

I'm mostly against California Chrome from the all-powerful-gotta-have-one-because-it's-a-big-race "TOP PICK" standpoint, but obviously I'd have no problem cashing a multi-race bet the ends with Quick Wit winning the Dixie and California Chrome the Preakness.

The aforementioned TOP PICK honors go to Social Inclusion, who I see as the most likely winner after California Chrome and better value in the win pool. Depending on the numbers you look at, Social Inclusion is the fastest horse in the race or co-fastest, and a third in the TwinSpires.com Wood Memorial Stakes behind the eventual fourth- and fifth-place finishers in the Kentucky Derby is no knock considering that was his third career start, first in graded company, and coming off less than three weeks rest.

With all the added money in the Pick 5 and Pick 4 pools, I won't get too cute trying to beat Chrome in those pools and use him in equal strength with my others. An all As & Bs Pick 5 is $200 and the Pick 4 is $250. From a verticals standpoint in the Preakness, I'll definitely box my five picks outside of California Chrome ($20) and wheel Social Inclusion up and down ($18). Then depending on what the will pays are (assuming were alive) I'll look at California Chrome and Social Inclusion on top. Good luck today!

8 Comments

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Pedigree Ann

You see what going after so-called 'value' gets you? Another fading third place when going more than 1 1/16. This horse is not what people want him to be, at least not yet and maybe never.

18 May 2014 7:53 AM
Rusty Weisner

How could you like SI?  Did you see what a mess he was before the race?

21 May 2014 2:42 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Whoaaaaa.

What's all the red-boarding, post race slamming of a guy that takes the ball each week ?  There was plenty of time to talk smack on Social Inclusion here long before the sun rose Saturday morning.

21 May 2014 6:09 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

Give me a break.  All the pre-race chatter was on the other thread, and the reservations about SI were stated well and often by the majority.  A lot of people mistrusted the trainer and pegged SI as a nervous horse, and his appearance and behavior Saturday bore that out.  Here, on the other hand, we got a rotten pick in a look for "value" with no acknowledgment of the peculiarities of the horse and his connections.  Come on, the author's a professional, he can take criticize for a bad pick in the sport's easiest race to handicap.  Meanwhile, I'll go with the advice of the commenters over there, including you.

22 May 2014 10:31 AM
Rusty Weisner

There was plenty of smack talked there about SI, including from both Pedigree Ann and myself.  There was no smack here because no one comes here, not even the author of the blog.

22 May 2014 10:37 AM
Rusty Weisner

Pedigree Ann,

I agree with your criticism.  Where is the logic in this? --

"The aforementioned TOP PICK honors go to Social Inclusion, who I see as the most likely winner after California Chrome and better value in the win pool."  

In other words, his top pick is not the most likely winner.  You see this a lot.  It seems like putting the cart before the horse, so to speak.  Shouldn't you look for the likely winner and determine your bet based on what "value" it offers, i.e., if you think its an overlay?  It doesn't seem to me you should be looking for value first, then the horse to pick.  I mean, I'm not the best handicapper or player, but I lose more money when I try to play this kind of roulette and I win when I am confident of picking an overlay winner, so caveat emptor to anyone just trying this game out.

And as far as this goes, I don't know what to make of it:

"With all the added money in the Pick 5 and Pick 4 pools, I won't get too cute trying to beat Chrome in those pools and use him in equal strength with my others. An all As & Bs Pick 5 is $200 and the Pick 4 is $250. From a verticals standpoint in the Preakness, I'll definitely box my five picks outside of California Chrome ($20) and wheel Social Inclusion up and down ($18). Then depending on what the will pays are (assuming were alive) I'll look at California Chrome and Social Inclusion on top. Good luck today"

Who were the "five picks outside of California Chrome"?  (And who on earth picks five other horses along with dead-solid chalk in a ten-horse Preakness field? -- I'm kicking myself for going beyond my top two in the exacta.)  Did the author win any money?  Who'd he like in the other races?  What if you're a novice or a sort of conservative bettor and don't even know what "wheeling SI up and down means"?  

Maybe the guy's a great player, but I'm not being unfair about how half-a**ed the blog is.  

22 May 2014 11:22 AM
Rusty Weisner

I'm sorry!  There's a whole table of picks at the bottom.

Still, what are these "A", "B" and "C" columns?

22 May 2014 11:43 AM
Rusty Weisner

For some reason, the table doesn't always appear in the browser.

22 May 2014 11:56 AM

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