By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
These days, in the United States, it isn't common to see
three-year-olds defeat older horses in Grade 1 races before the Breeders' Cup. With
so many rich targets for sophomores on the summer and fall calendar, there isn't
much incentive for three-year-olds to step outside their own age group.
But most of those age-restricted opportunities are found in
the East and Midwest. In the West, specifically California, there aren't many
options. That's one reason why the $1 million Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar remains
a viable target for three-year-olds. Sure, older horses win the 1 1/4-mile contest
more often than not, but sophomores Dullahan (2012), Shared Belief (2014), and
Arabian Knight (2023) have taken home top honors in the last 15 years.
Can #6 Journalism (9-5) become the latest three-year-old
to conquer older rivals in the Pacific Classic? This is a tough year to attempt
the task, but I believe Journalism is up to the challenge.
Journalism never runs a bad race. He's won six of his last
eight starts, taking the Preakness (G1), Haskell (G1), Santa Anita Derby (G1),
San Felipe (G2), and Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). His two defeats this year were
strong runner-up finishes in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Belmont (G1) to
Sovereignty, who won last week's Travers (G1) to cement his favoritism for the
Breeders' Cup Classic (G1).
Journalism wasn't quite up to beating Sovereignty during
the spring, but Sovereignty is as talented a three-year-old as we've seen so
far this decade, and Journalism may find defeating older horses in the Pacific
Classic to be an easier assignment.
When he's not knocking heads with Sovereignty, Journalism has
proven to be almost unstoppable. In the Preakness, he bulled his way through severe
traffic and bumping to gain five lengths in the final furlong and defeat
Lexington (G3) winner Gosger by half a length. In the Haskell, he raced a bit
sluggishly during the early stages, but rallied relentlessly down the
homestretch to again defeat Gosger by half a length.
Time and time again, Journalism runs fast on the Beyer
speed figure and Brisnet Speed rating scales. He's posted triple-digit Beyers
on five occasions this year, peaking with a 108 in the San Felipe. He's also
posted six straight Brisnet Speed ratings in the 102-108 range.
These numbers stack up well against the Pacific Classic
field. One of his key rivals, 2023 champion three-year-old male #1
Fierceness (3-1), has run faster on his best day. But this year, Fierceness'
highest Beyer and Brisnet numbers are the 107s he posted when winning the
Alysheba (G2), and he's since regressed when finishing second in the
Metropolitan H. (G1) and fifth in the Whitney (G1).
#4 Nysos (8-5) is shaping up as an
even greater threat to Journalism after dominating five of his first six
starts, including last month's San Diego H. (G2) at Del Mar. His lone defeat
came when second in the Churchill Downs (G1) off a long layoff, beaten only a
neck by next-out Stephen Foster (G1) winner Mindframe while finishing ahead of
future Forego (G1) winner Book'em Danno. But Nysos has yet to earn a Brisnet
Speed rating higher than 106, and his best Beyer this year—a 108—was earned in the
seven-furlong Triple Bend (G3).
Looking beyond speed figures, the Pacific Classic race
dynamics should play to Journalism's strengths as well. Landing post six in an
eight-horse field should allow Journalism to work out a favorable trip racing
in the clear—no need to battle through traffic like in the Preakness. In
contrast, Fierceness must try to negotiate a clean trip from the rail post,
which could be tricky since outside stalking trips seem to be his preference.
The post draw shouldn't bother Nysos, but the 1 1/4-mile
distance is a potential obstacle. He's never run farther than 1 1/16 miles, and
while his pedigree suggests the longer trip is within reach, it's worth noting
Nysos has done his best work in sprints.
For all these reasons, I'm keen to back Journalism to win
the Pacific Classic. Fierceness and Nysos are formidable foes, but they're not
without chinks in their armor. I believe Journalism's strong form and proven
affinity for classic distances will win the day.
If you want to mix a longshot into your trifecta tickets,
try #2 Midnight Mammoth (12-1). He's shown talent and stamina winning
the 1 1/2-mile Cougar II (G3) and finishing second in the 1 1/4-mile Hollywood
Gold Cup (G2), so this speedy six-year-old should see out the Pacific Classic
distance just fine.
Selections
1st: Journalism
2nd: Nysos
3rd: Fierceness
4th: Midnight Mammoth
Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Pacific Classic?
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
