By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
A small but high-quality
field is slated to start in Saturday's $600,000 Alabama (G1) at Saratoga.
Unlike most dirt stakes for
three-year-old fillies, which are held over 1 1/8 miles or less, the Alabama takes
place over 1 1/4 miles. Sometimes, the unusually long distance gives late
runners an advantage; if they have the stamina to stay 1 1/4 miles, they can
run down tiring speed horses. Remember when 9-1 shot Eskimo Kisses closed from
out of the clouds to dominate the 2018 Alabama by 6 1/2 lengths?
But I don't anticipate the
2025 Alabama unfolding in that manner. The six-horse field is severely lacking
in pace. #6 La Cara (5-2) is the lone
frontrunner in the field, and the only horse who appears capable of pressing
the pace is La Cara's stablemate #4
Nitrogen (9-5). Since a speed duel between these Mark Casse trainees seems
unlikely, the stage may be set for La Cara to lead all the way and secure her
third Grade 1 win of the year.
La Cara has struggled with consistency
at times; during the spring, she tired over a wet-fast track at Churchill Downs
to finish a distant ninth in the Kentucky Oaks (G1). She sandwiched that defeat
in between decisive wins in the Ashland (G1) and Acorn (G1).
In the Ashland, La Cara
carved out the pace and opened up a 3 1/2-length lead in midstretch before
digging down to beat Take Charge Milady by 1 1/4 lengths. The latter went on to
defeat 2024 champion two-year-old filly Immersive in the June 14 Monomoy Girl
S.
La Cara conquered an even
stronger field in the Acorn. Racing over a sloppy track, she led at every call
through solid pace fractions to score by three lengths over Eight Belles (G2)
winner Look Forward and Frizette (G1) heroine Scottish Lassie. The form was
flattered when Scottish Lassie returned to smash the Coaching Club American
Oaks (G1) at Saratoga by 15 1/2 lengths.
The Acorn came back quick on
the speed figure scales. La Cara earned a 101 Brisnet Speed rating (the highest
number in the Alabama field) and a 93 Beyer.
With her strong speed figures
and proven Grade 1 form, La Cara is a formidable Alabama win contender. Throw
in the tactical advantage of being the lone frontrunner, and La Cara may prove
impossible to catch. She's my top choice.
For runner-up honors, I'll
side with Nitrogen, who figures to work out a favorable trip tracking La Cara
in second position. The daughter of Medaglia d'Oro has spent the vast majority
of her career competing on turf, winning five stakes and posting top-three
finishes in the Belmont Oaks (G1), Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1),
and Natalma (G1).
But Nitrogen has also shown
potential on dirt. In an off-the-turf renewal of the Wonder Again (G3) at
Saratoga, she crushed her competition by 17 lengths. Granted, she beat only two
rivals over a sloppy track, but nothing in Nitrogen's pedigree suggests she can't
be a highly effective dirt racer. Plus, in this small Alabama field, she
shouldn't have to deal with dirt kickback.
#2 Good Cheer (8-5)
is my third choice. Her form is a little tricky to interpret. She won her first
seven starts in a row by margins ranging from 2 1/4 lengths to 17 lengths,
including the Kentucky Oaks (G1). But she ran dramatically below her best in the
Acorn last time out, failing to mount a challenge while finishing fifth by 9
1/4 lengths.
Good Cheer has been
freshened since the Acorn and could certainly bounce back in the Alabama. But she's
yet to run particularly fast from a Beyer speed figure or Brisnet Speed rating
perspective, and her stretch-running style could place her at a tactical disadvantage
against La Cara and Nitrogen. For these reasons, I view Good Cheer as a
vulnerable favorite.
#1 Margie's Intention (8-1)
can round out the superfecta. A stablemate to Good Cheer trained by Brad Cox,
Margie's Intention enjoyed a productive spring, winning the Black-Eyed Susan
(G2) and finishing a closing second in the Delaware Oaks (G3). While not as
accomplished (nor as fast on paper) as the Alabama favorites, Margie's
Intention is a consistent filly who figures to run her race and land a spot in the
top four.
Selections
1st: La Cara
2nd: Nitrogen
3rd: Good Cheer
4th: Margie's Intention
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the Alabama?
*****
Want to test your handicapping skills against fellow Unlocking Winners readers? Check out the Unlocking Winners contest page—there's a new challenge every week! (Please note: older contest entries can be found here.)
J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
