By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
They're not as rich and
prestigious as the Kentucky Derby (G1), but the $300,000 Indiana Derby (G3) at
Horseshoe Indianapolis and the $250,000 Iowa Derby at Prairie Meadows have
drawn Kentucky Derby alumni and could have an impact on the second half of the
2024 racing season.
Let's check out both races:
Indiana Derby (G3)
The most accomplished
entrant in this 1 1/16-mile contest is #2
Stronghold, winner of the Sunland Park Derby (G3) at Santa Anita Derby (G1)
during the spring. The Phil D'Amato trainee never runs a bad race; even his
seventh-place finish in the Kentucky Derby (G1) was respectable given that he was
35-1 and entered with slower Beyer Speed Figures than the favorites.
Stronghold has churned out
fast workouts (including a bullet five furlongs in :59) since the Kentucky
Derby and looms as a logical Indiana Derby win threat. But we shouldn't underestimate
#8 Dragoon Guard as an upset threat
for high-percentage trainer Brad Cox.
Whereas Stronghold posted
Beyers of 90 and 89 in the Sunland Park Derby and Santa Anita Derby, Dragoon
Guard threw down figures of 88 and 91 in his two races this year, both of which
resulted in victory. In a maiden special weight sprinting about seven furlongs
at Keeneland, the Juddmonte homebred pressed the pace before taking over to win
by 3 3/4 lengths with an 88 Beyer. He subsequently improved to his 91 when
wiring a one-mile $100,000 allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs.
Dragoon Guard finished
strongly in his allowance win (running the final quarter-mile in :24.83) to win
by 3 1/4 lengths over the graded stakes-placed Lat Long. That quick finish
bodes well for stretching out around two turns in the Indiana Derby, and Dragoon
Guard's pedigree is equally encouraging. He's a son of long-winded champion and
Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) winner Arrogate, whose progeny win at a lofty
average distance of 7.9 furlongs per Brisnet statistics. Arrogate's best
runners include Belmont (G1) hero Arcangelo and Preakness (G1) victor Seize the
Grey.
I'm willing to bet Dragoon
Guard can spring a mild upset against Stronghold. It's encouraging to note that
Cox has won two of the last four editions of this race with Verifying (2023)
and Shared Sense (2020). The latter was ridden to victory by Florent Geroux,
who will guide Dragoon Guard on Saturday.
Iowa Derby
The second 1 1/16-mile Derby
of the day has come up with a lighter field, which means #9 Just a Touch is hands-down the horse to beat for Cox.
Just a Touch never fired in
the Kentucky Derby, racing in midfield on his way to finishing last of 20. But
he got bounced around significantly in traffic during the early stages of the
race and didn't seem to relish racing behind rivals.
Just a Touch fared much
better when employing outside pressing tactics in his first three starts. He
won his debut sprinting six furlongs at Fair Grounds by 4 1/4 lengths, then
finished second in the Gotham (G3) and Blue Grass (G1) on the Road to the
Kentucky Derby. In the latter race, contested over 1 1/8 miles at Keeneland,
Just a Touch was beaten only 1 1/2 lengths by next-out Kentucky Derby runner-up
Sierra Leone while pulling 3 3/4 lengths clear of the rest of the field, which
included future Belmont winner Dornoch.
Those three exacta finishes
yielded improving Beyer Speed Figures of 89, 90, and 96. Drawing post nine in
an 11-horse field for the Iowa Derby should allow Just a Touch to resume his
pressing style and bounce back with a victory under Florent Geroux.
For second place, I like the
chances of #8 Dimatic. Conditioned
by Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, Dimatic exits a runner-up finish in the
1 1/16-mile Texas Derby at Lone Star Park, in which he was beaten only one
length by Santa Anita Derby third-place finish E J Won the Cup while pulling
six lengths clear of Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) runner-up Real Men Violin. That
form line is sharp, and Dimatic's reward was a 91 Beyer, suggesting he's talented
enough to complete the Iowa Derby exacta.
Bonus pick: Brooklyn (G2)
Racing fans are in for a
treat this Friday. Aqueduct is hosting the 1 3/8-mile Brooklyn (G2), and #6 Next is in the entries.
Next is an absolutely
sensational long-distance dirt runner. His last seven starts have yielded six
stakes wins, including a confident triumph in last year's Brooklyn. The
three-time graded stakes winner ended 2023 with a 25-length demolition of the 1
1/2-mile Greenwood Cup (G3) at Parx Racing, and he picked up where he left off
in the 1 1/2-mile Isaac Murphy Marathon S. two months ago at Churchill Downs,
dominating by 11 1/4 lengths in the track-record time of 2:27.93.
#3 Crupi,
fresh off a rallying victory in the 1 1/4-mile Suburban (G2) at Saratoga, is a capable
challenger. But Crupi benefited from closing into a decelerating pace in the
Suburban, and a similar setup might not be forthcoming in the Brooklyn. Next is
loaded with early speed and figures to set or press a modest early pace, leaving
him with plenty in the tank for a powerful homestretch finish. In the Isaac
Murphy, he ran the final quarter-mile in :24.90, and that was after pressing
decent early fractions of :24.64, :48.71, and 1:13.45. A similar performance on
Friday can land Next a second straight Brooklyn title.
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like this week?
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
