By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
Opening day of the Santa
Anita Classic Meet is Thursday, the day after Christmas. The stakes-packed post-holiday
card is highlighted by a stellar renewal of the $300,000 Malibu (G1), a
seven-furlong sprint for three-year-olds.
The eight-horse field has
come up deep, with severable viable win contenders. #1 Bentornato (3-1) is bound to be a popular choice after winning
the Gallant Bob (G2) and finishing second in the Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) sprinting
six furlongs. And I'm confident #8
Raging Torrent (9-2), the seventh-place finisher from the Breeders' Cup Sprint,
will relish stretching back out to seven furlongs, the distance over which he
defeated older rivals in the Pat O'Brien (G2) during the summer.
But guess what? I'm not
going to back any of the tried-and-true stakes-caliber sprinters as my top
choice. Instead, I'm on board the bandwagon of Kentucky Derby (G1) winner #6 Mystik Dan (5-2).
It might seem strange to pick
a route racer to win a sprint, but the Malibu is often won by established Grade
1-caliber route racers. Examples from the last decade include Shared Belief
(2014), McKinzie (2018), Omaha Beach (2019), Charlatan (2020), and Taiba
(2022).
And for all Mystik Dan has
accomplished running long—his ground-saving Kentucky Derby triumph, his
runner-up effort in the Preakness (G1), his eight-length demolition of the
Southwest (G3), his third in the Arkansas Derby (G1)—I still wonder if he might
be better sprinting.
This belief stems in large
part from Mystik Dan's stunning win in a November 2023 5 1/2-furlong maiden
special weight at Churchill Downs, his most recent sprint start. After dueling
for the lead through fractions of :22.78 and :45.88, Mystik Dan blew the race
apart with a sensational fifth furlong in :11.35, after which he cruised his
final sixteenth in :06.04 to win by 7 3/4 lengths.
Mystik Dan is obviously a
capable route racer—you don't win the Kentucky Derby if you can't handle two
turns—but it's worth noting he's lost ground from the eighth pole to the finish
line in six of his seven starts racing one mile or farther. He's been freshened
since fading to finish eighth in the 1 1/2-mile Belmont (G1), and I think there's
a good chance Mystik Dan will absolutely thrive while cutting back to seven
furlongs.
The Malibu should feature
plenty of pace to set up Mystik Dan's late rally, so the Kentucky Derby champ
is my top pick.
Selections
1st: Mystik Dan
2nd: Raging Torrent
3rd: Bentornato
Locks of the Week
In an effort to end 2024 on
a high note, I've scoured the upcoming entries in search of horses that I
believe are almost certain to visit the winner's circle. Consider them as
singles to build multi-race wagers around.
The first is #1 Madaket Road (3-5) in Thursday's
second race at Santa Anita, a six-furlong maiden special weight for juveniles.
The Bob Baffert-trained son of Quality Road debuted against tougher competition
in the seven-furlong Bob Hope (G3) at Del Mar last month. Despite taking on
experienced rivals, Madaket Road ran well to finish second, 2 3/4 lengths ahead
of Del Mar Futurity (G1) runner-up and American Pharoah (G1) third-place finisher
McKinzie Street. Dropping into a maiden race should allow Madaket Road to
prevail under Juan Hernandez, a 38% winner teaming up with Baffert over the
last two months per Brisnet statistics.
On Saturday at Santa Anita,
the Blue Norther S. for two-year-old fillies racing one mile on turf looks ripe
for conquest by #9 Will Then. She
failed to fire in her debut over the European-style turf course at Kentucky
Downs, but has been unstoppable since switching to more typical turf courses.
She employed pace-tracking tactics to nab a one-mile maiden special weight at
Woodbine over a next-out winner, then rallied from far back to take the one-mile
Jimmy Durante (G3) at Del Mar by 2 1/4 lengths. Will Then has already defeated
six of the eight rivals she'll face in the Blue Norther, so a repeat of her Jimmy
Durante performance should be sufficient to nab a comfortable victory.
Louisiana-bred juveniles
will star on Sunday at Fair Grounds in two divisions of the six-furlong Louisiana
Futurity: one for colts and geldings, the other for fillies.
The colts and geldings
division ought to be won by #4 Smoken
Wicked. After hitting the board against non-state-restricted company in the
Bashford Manor S., Saratoga Special (G2), Hopeful (G1), and Champagne (G1), Smoken
Wicked trounced a $100,000 allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs, then
shipped to Fair Grounds to beat Louisiana-breds in the six-furlong Louisiana
Champions Day Juvenile. He's already defeated key Louisiana Futurity rivals #1
Tdz Hint of Power and #2 Voila Magic, so the stage is set for Smoken Wicked to
record a third straight win.
Arguably an even more likely
winner is #7 Secret Faith in the
fillies division of the Louisiana Futurity. She won her first five starts,
including four stakes, and four of those wins came by six lengths or more. Secret
Faith did manage to lose the Louisiana Champions Day Lassie S. sprinting six
furlongs at Fair Grounds last month, but she was beaten only a head by the promising
Blue Fire while pulling 9 1/4 lengths clear of the rest, and even in defeat she
earned a career-best 93 Brisnet Speed rating. Blue Fire is skipping the
Louisiana Futurity, so Secret Faith shouldn't have much difficulty bouncing
back to the winner's circle.
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like this week?
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
