By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
The final Road to the
Kentucky Derby qualifier of the year is coming up on Saturday at Fair Grounds,
that being the $100,000 Gun Runner S. worth 10-5-3-2-1 points to the top five
finishers.
A small but competitive
field has turned out for the 1 1/16-mile contest. Only five horses have
entered, but they're a talented bunch, and it won't be surprising if one or two
wind up competing in the 2025 Kentucky Derby (G1).
Two of the entrants have
already started on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. #2 Render Judgment (4-1) gained some ground into a slow early/fast
late race shape to finish fifth in the 1 1/16-mile Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at
Churchill Downs last month. The Gun Runner is an easier spot on paper, so
Render Judgment is a logical contender for 2024 Kentucky Derby-winning trainer
Kenny McPeek.
#3 Magnitude 2-1)
dominated a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Ellis Park by 5 3/4 lengths,
then faltered in his first foray on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, fading from
a pace-pressing position to finish seventh in the one-mile Iroquois (G3) at Churchill.
But he bounced back nicely in a $100,000 allowance optional claimer at
Churchill Downs, sticking close to the early tempo before taking over to win by
one length. Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen has won two of the first three
editions of the Gun Runner, and red-hot jockey Jose Ortiz is named to ride, so
there's a lot to like about Magnitude.
But don't overlook two
up-and-comers making their Road to the Kentucky Derby debuts. #1 Built (7-2), for example, defeated
Render Judgment by 1 1/2 lengths in a seven-furlong maiden special weight in
October at Keeneland. He hasn't run since, but strong workouts (including five
furlongs in 1:00 4/5 at Fair Grounds) suggest he's sitting on a strong showing.
Plus, as a son of Hard Spun out of a mare by Curlin, Built is bred to shine
while stretching out around two turns.
#5 Admiral Dennis (9-5)
looks like an even stronger contender. Conditioned by high-percentage trainer
Brad Cox, the son of Constitution ran into tons of traffic trouble in his debut
sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Churchill Downs. He basically never had a clear
path down the homestretch, but nevertheless battled on to finish second by two
lengths.
Admiral Dennis got a clear
trip when making his second start in a one-mile maiden special weight at
Churchill Downs, and the result was a decisive victory. After sticking within
one length of honest pace fractions (:22.92 and :46.32), Admiral Dennis wore
down the pacesetter and kicked clear late to prevail by 3 1/2 lengths.
Admiral Dennis finished
strongly on the clock, running his final two furlongs in :12.20 and :12.37 for
a final quarter in :24.57. His combination of tactical speed and finishing
power should be tough to deny against this small Gun Runner field, so I'm
optimistic Admiral Dennis will deliver victory. He's my top choice.
Selections
1st: Admiral Dennis
2nd: Built
3rd: Render Judgment
Lock of the Week
In my opinion, one of the
likeliest winners of the entire week can be found during the Thursday card at
Fair Grounds.
Race 5 is a six-furlong
allowance for Louisiana-bred juveniles who have never won two races, and the
conditions appear made to order for #4
Dapper Moon (3-5).
During the summer at
Saratoga, Dapper Moon performed strongly in a pair of maiden special weight
sprints. He debuted in a six-furlong dash and rallied strongly after a slow
start to finish second by 2 1/2 lengths. Then in a seven-furlong contest, he
tracked the pace in third place before taking over to trounce a next-out winner
by five lengths, earning a strong 93 Brisnet Speed rating.
Dapper Moon didn't fare
quite as well when stretching out over 1 1/16 miles for a trio of starts on the
Road to the Kentucky Derby, but he didn't run badly by any means, finishing
fourth in the Breeders' Futurity (G1), Street Sense (G3), and Kentucky Jockey
Club (G2). Those efforts yielded Brisnet Speed ratings in the 83-87 range.
Cutting back to a sprint
distance while dropping in class and tackling the Louisiana-bred ranks for the
first time should make Dapper Moon mighty tough to beat. None of his rivals
have ever earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 77, so Dapper Moon is my
lock of the week.
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like at Fair Grounds?
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
