By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
This week's stakes-packed
Saturday card at Aqueduct includes the Remsen (G2) and Demoiselle (G2), early
qualifiers for the 2025 Kentucky Derby (G1) and Kentucky Oaks (G1).
Let's take a look at both
races:
Remsen (G2)
It's a bit hard to believe
that trainer Chad Brown has won the Remsen only once, with Leave a Light On in
2014. Brown has saddled some excellent horses in the Remsen, including Sierra
Leone, Zandon, and Normandy Invasion. But those three all finished second by a
nose, accounting for three of Brown's five runner-up finishes in the Remsen
since 2012.
Perhaps 2024 is the year
Brown can return to the Remsen winner's circle. He trains two of the seven
entrants in Saturday's edition of the 1 1/8-mile Road to the Kentucky Derby
qualifier, including #5 Keewaydin,
the fastest horse from a Beyer Speed Figure and Brisnet Speed rating
perspective.
Keewaydin debuted on Aug. 24
in one of the deepest maiden special weights of the Saratoga meet. After settling
a couple lengths off the lead, Keewaydin closed to finish third by a neck
against future Champagne (G1) runner-up Tip Top Thomas and next-out maiden
winner Rookie Card. Other participants in the six-furlong sprint included
future Street Sense (G3) winner Sovereignty and next-out maiden winner C K
Wonder.
Keewaydin's second start
came on Oct. 12 in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Aqueduct. This time
Keewaydin dueled for the lead through honest fractions before finishing up
strongly (final three furlongs in :36.39, including a final furlong in :12.10)
to prevail by 1 3/4 lengths over Volt, who in turned pulled 10 lengths clear of
the third-place finisher.
That maiden victory came
back fast on the speed figure scales. Keewaydin earned a 91 Beyer Speed Figure
and a 92 Brisnet Speed rating. None of the other Remsen entrants have posted
numbers as high.
I'm optimistic Keewaydin's
speed figure advantage will translate to victory in the Remsen. Stretching out
over 1 1/8 miles is a question mark for the speedily bred son of Instagrand,
but on the bright side there isn't an overabundance of early speed entered in
the Remsen field, and I think there's a good chance Keewaydin will shake loose
on a relatively uncontested lead and take this field all the way on the front
end.
After that, who knows? Sierra
Leone, Zandon, and Normandy Invasion all went on to record top-four finishes in
the Kentucky Derby (G1), and I won't be surprised to see Keewaydin progress
down a similar path.
Demoiselle (G2)
A field of 10 fillies will
race 1 1/8 miles in the Demoiselle (G2), a Road to the Kentucky Oaks qualifier
that has been won in recent years by champions Malathaat and Nest.
Trainer Todd Pletcher has
won the last four editions of the Demoiselle, and nine editions overall, but
his lone entrant this year—#4 Carmen's
Candy Jar—may need improvement to take down #1 Muhimma, a Brad Cox trainee unbeaten and unchallenged in two
starts.
Muhimma is shaping up as a
serious contender for the 2025 Kentucky Oaks (G1). She debuted on Sept. 20 in a
6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs, in which she tracked
and pressed a quick pace before seizing command to dominate by 7 1/2 lengths
over a next-out winner.
Muhimma was every bit as
impressive in a seven-furlong $100,000 allowance optional claimer on Nov. 1 at
Churchill Downs. Again, she pressed a solid pace. Again, she took over to trounce
her rivals by daylight, winning geared down by 5 1/2 lengths over Pocahontas
(G3) runner-up #2 Liam in the Dust.
Those runaway wins yielded
sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 89 and 87, which are two of the three highest
numbers in the Demoiselle field. The only entrant who has run faster is #7 Five a Side with a 94, but her
latest numbers (86 and 80) aren't as sharp, and she exits a fifth-place finish
in the one-mile Tempted S. at Aqueduct, which marked her route debut.
Stretching out from seven
furlongs to 1 1/8 miles is the main obstacle Muhimma faces in the Demoiselle, given
that her sire (Munnings) was a sprinter/miler who primarily passes on speed at
stud. But Muhimma's dam is Princesa Carolina, a daughter of Tapit who won the
Dueling Grounds Oaks racing 1 5/16 miles, so I'm confident Muhimma will see out
the Demoiselle distance. She's my choice to win.
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the Remsen and Demoiselle?
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
