So everyone has put in their two cents or even ten cents except me. So here is my 50 cents or so.
After listening and observing all the handicappers and horse enthusiasts that I care to listen too, co-workers ect...
Pedigree matters most in the Belmont. Distance will get you at the end.
Big Brown will have to shoot out of the starting gate to take the lead and he needs to do that due to the maiden horse that is breaking from the gate next to him. I have a bad feeling about a maiden in the Belmont, though the maiden horse has raced before. If that goes well, the competition comes down to Denis of Cork and Casino Drive. Other horses will do their thing, but after the mile is over, the following half mile will separate the men from the boys.
Once Big Brown hits that long stretch, it will play to his strength, but Casino Drive has a wonderful stride and looks like his past family in motion. I still don't predict the second coming of Secretariat. I do predict myself potentially peeing my pants.
Anyway, The Derby worked well for me, so I am going to follow the same format. Knowing the mind of Big Brown...
$2 Big Brown across the board.
$1 Boxed Exacta Big Brown, Casino Drive, Denis of Cork
$2 To Show Denis of Cork, Anak Nakal, Maiden Horse (these are the value long-shot back ups to win my money back, if the first bets do not work out.)
Adventurous bet that I am still on the fence about: $.10 or $1 boxed superfecta for Big Brown, Casino Drive, Denis of Cork, Icabad Crane, (either Maiden Horse or Anak Nakal)
--- All Photos by Anne M. Eberhardt ---
Caption: Casino Drive
Caption: Anak Nakal
Caption: Denis of Cork
A quote still sticks in my head I heard from Zito, that "Horses don't race on paper." Referring to the horses have to run on the track against competition. I have to say on paper though, Big Brown is amazing and I am not giving into him losing. Nope, not on my birthday weekend. All the rules are out this Triple Crown anyway, just ask Steve Haskin and Lenny Shulman on the ATO show form BloodHorse.com