Bodacious Belmont

So everyone has put in their two cents or even ten cents except me. So here is my 50 cents or so.

After listening and observing all the handicappers and horse enthusiasts that I care to listen too, co-workers ect...
Pedigree matters most in the Belmont. Distance will get you at the end.

Big Brown will have to shoot out of the starting gate to take the lead and he needs to do that due to the maiden horse that is breaking from the gate next to him. I have a bad feeling about a maiden in the Belmont, though the maiden horse has raced before. If that goes well, the competition comes down to Denis of Cork and Casino Drive. Other horses will do their thing, but after the mile is over, the following half mile will separate the men from the boys.

Once Big Brown hits that long stretch, it will play to his strength, but Casino Drive has a wonderful stride and looks like his past family in motion. I still don't predict the second coming of Secretariat. I do predict myself potentially peeing my pants.

Anyway, The Derby worked well for me, so I am going to follow the same format. Knowing the mind of Big Brown...

$2 Big Brown across the board.
$1 Boxed Exacta Big Brown, Casino Drive, Denis of Cork
$2 To Show Denis of Cork, Anak Nakal, Maiden Horse (these are the value long-shot back ups to win my money back, if the first bets do not work out.)

Adventurous bet that I am still on the fence about: $.10 or $1 boxed superfecta for Big Brown, Casino Drive, Denis of Cork, Icabad Crane, (either Maiden Horse or Anak Nakal)

--- All Photos by Anne M. Eberhardt ---


Caption: Casino Drive

 
Caption: Anak Nakal


Caption: Denis of Cork

 A quote still sticks in my head I heard from Zito, that "Horses don't race on paper." Referring to the horses have to run on the track against competition. I have to say on paper though, Big Brown is amazing and I am not giving into him losing. Nope, not on my birthday weekend. All the rules are out this Triple Crown anyway, just ask Steve Haskin and Lenny Shulman on the ATO show form BloodHorse.com
 

14 Comments

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WT

Anak Nakal could be a surprise, but not for the win. I can't buy into Casino Drive, and now it seems he may not run. Go Big Brown all the way!

06 Jun 2008 1:27 PM
Barbaro fan

BB first, the rest nowhere. Go Brownie, go!

06 Jun 2008 1:36 PM
Karen

Physically, CD is a sight to see. So is BB. They seem far more "mature" than the others. In fact, Anak Nakal looks like a little baby physically still. I have a feeling CD will get scratched. He shouldn't be running if he isn't 100%.

I had to laugh when I read you might pee your pants. I would venture to guess there will be a lot of soiled pants on Saturday. I can hardly wait for the race. I can't remember the last time I wished something would just hurry up and get here already. Maybe it was when I was 9 and waiting for Santa. I watched the coverage on the Today show and I could hardly contain my emotions then. There is a lot of eyes on this industry right now. Perhaps after the tragic breakdown of the beautiful Eight Belles, BB will win this Triple Crown and breath life back into the industry. Hopefully we will see great strides forward in making some much needed changes. We just can't sit idle anymore. There has to be a lesson and meaning behind her tragic death. I feel BB will be running with Eight Belles tomorrow. Not only with Eight Belles, but with all who have been lost in the past. Tragedy gives way to hope.

06 Jun 2008 2:15 PM
Marc W

With due respect, you obviously don't gamble.

The only way to win money is to have BB completely not fire and miss the board. If he hits the board there will be show bridge jumpers bettors, that will make the show next to nothing even "IF" the maiden hits the ticket -about $4.00 for a 99-1 shot, not exactly good value. With Casino Dr now questionable the exactor with BB-Dennis of Cork paying about $5/6. The reverse would net $20 with him out of the race.

The across the board bet on BB if "on track" makes the tickets more valuable on Ebay as they will be worth about $7.00 total for your $6.00 investment. (I still have uncashed win tickets on Secretariat's last race where he paid $2.80 Big Brown will pay less especially if Casino Dr. scratches))

The best case scenario is for him (BB) to fall out of the money and your show tickets hit, with possibly a million dollars on him to show, the payoffs with be huge-then you need two horses that have shown no indication they are competitive to place in the race. Dennis of Cork who figures in the hunt still won't cover the total wagers in that  scenario because he will have ample show money on him.

Just enjoy the race and hope we get to see a Triple Crown winner. If you "MUST BET" try a Trifecta or Superfecta keying BB on top with your picks and enjoy seeing history made.------Maybe? I suspect so.

A note-Belmont has a super undercard and with 120,000 people on track and betting from across the nation flowing in the pools in ALL RACES that day will be huge and value abundant. That is where I will be looking to take advantage of people who don't go to the races regularly and silly money will come in on horses with no chance-inflating the prices of logical horses-I did quite well on Preakness and Derby Day although in the main events even keying BB on top (I missed The filly and Ichy in the 2 races-had the other in my tri-missed the 4th horse in the Preakness as well as Ichy-surprisingly I had both TOE and DOC in my Derby super-but missed the 5th horse even if the filly was out of the money) other than a saver $10 exactor with Macho to cover my other bets I wasn't really that close to the tri's and supers.

06 Jun 2008 3:41 PM
Wendyg

I am soooo for BB.  I am sorry, but I am not the least bit sad if Casino Drive can't run.  I don't want him hurt, and I am glad if he will be ok, but I so want to see BB win the T-Crown.  He has earned it.  We could use a racing hero.  I don't think Casino Drive is half the horse BB is, but he is fresh, and that can be disaster at the Belmont.  Now if he had run the other two races, then he would be impressive, but he has only raced twice which makes him no better in my mind than the maiden horse in slot two.  Go BB!!!!!

06 Jun 2008 4:23 PM
aspradling

Marc: no offense taken. I am a noob and I appreciate all of your insight. I learned a lot from that post. I made money in the Derby and want to follow the same angle, but my longshot with Denis of Cork is not a longshot in this race, so that is a good point to modify on.

Yeah the rumors are that Casino Drive is not 100%, but I hope he can race, to give some "Honour" to our history. =)

06 Jun 2008 4:54 PM
Harrison Jones

Quadacanal is a mile-and-a-half

horse. Semper Fi.

06 Jun 2008 4:54 PM
Lmaris

BB has a quick start so may not have to use much energy at all go get out front.  But that isn't necessarily where he wants to be.  He rates well, and sitting behind a few horses around the first turn isn't going to hurt his chances.  He'll have time to get outside down the back stretch, and can unleash his big stride halfway around the far turn and down the stretch.

Casino Drive has a bruise on one of his hind feet and his connections are scrambling to keep him sound enough to run.  If he were mine, I'd skip the race with him "off" while walking.  BB's most recent quarter crack wasn't painful to him while moving, unlike CD's bruise.

I hope the gate vet takes a good close look before they load.  The last thing the sport needs is another breakdown because a horse's connections put it where it shouldn't be.

06 Jun 2008 11:16 PM
BlueCollar

Too bad about Casino Drive.  Can't blame the connections, do not need another Eight Belles lying on the track afterward. Looks like the main competition is out,  so Big Brown has absolutely no excuses.  It is really his race to lose, they just need to go through the formalities of running it. It kind of takes some of the starch out of it,  but I guess there's still money to be made for place and show.  I thought the Japanese horse would have made it interesting.

07 Jun 2008 2:33 PM
Mike from Ossineke, Michigan

Well, I don't like to say I told you so, but....................................I knew BB would not win.  We may not see a Triple Crown winner again in our lifetime.  

07 Jun 2008 7:16 PM
LanceS

Well, the horse has no choice over his "people", but unsurprisingly Dutrow showed as much class after the race as he did before.  I guarantee that if the shoes had been switched Zito would have graciously talked to the media after the race.   But just as the bully runs from a fight, the big mouth runs and hides when he's proven wrong.

07 Jun 2008 7:23 PM
MonicaV

The 2008 Belmont was not what was expected.  So many people posting on the blog have state BB is the best horse in 30 years...this with 5 races under his belt.  He has not had a steriod injection since April 15th and I feel that had a lot to do with his loss today.  He was last.  Kent eased him because he had no horse.  He had run maybe a mile at that point and he was done.  Great horses don't do that.  This horse needs his steroids I think.  I may be wrong but what will be the excuse?  he was not lame, he was not injured.  Every horse in the field beat him today and that includes the maiden.

Had he won the TC I would be saying what a great horse he was too but sorry, he doesn't measure up.  His the first horse to go into the Belmont with a chance for the TC and came in last.  Where is greatness there?  He was cooked halfway in the race.  He needed his shot.

07 Jun 2008 8:06 PM
Jon

BB's breeding and bad feet finally caught up with him.  The telecast was set up as a coronation since all we were told about was BB and his (seedy) connections for hours on end.  Too bad we were not told anything about any of the other horses in the race.  

08 Jun 2008 10:04 AM
aspradling

I have to be real honest, I don't know what some of you are talking about towards what I have said in this post.

As I see it, I was right. In my scenario set up. Big Brown did not get the lead and was cut off in the early stages of the race, following the break from the gate.

Anak Nakal and Denis of Cork came in second and third. I would have won my money back hands down. No  one picked Da'Tara. Pedigree mattered as I said.

I bet Casino Drive would have been in the mix, had he not been scratched, but that is speculation.

09 Jun 2008 8:21 AM

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