Keeneland Opens So Lets Handicap

My horses had a big weekend, including several old friends. How did your's do?

Winning feels good..., but I need to learn to take my own advice.

Opening day of Keeneland was a little cool and overcast, but that wasn't going to keep me away. The crowd was small, and I was a little concerned about the number of people present.

I lost some money on my first bet of that day. To warm up, I did not look at PP's and just watched the horses in the paddock. Then in the last race of the day...I bet on No. 10, won all my money back, and broke even. So a win in my book.

I talked to one of the ushers near box 50, Billy, over the course of Friday and Saturday. He said the attendance numbers were down for Friday quite a bit, which was obvious from looking out of the grandstand. Saturday was ridiculous though, but in such a good way! The weather had a lot of making up to do for Saturday compared to Friday, and it made up.

It is a good sign when the press lot is full, and you have to go park on the endless grassy knolls. Then later I had to wait an hour or more just to get onto a road, that led to the main road which exits Keeneland.

People were in such a good mood, it was contagious. A beautiful sight...friends were joking that we had seen everyone in Lexington there. But it was so true.

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Transylvania:

The first graded race I bet on at Keeneland this year, a great experience, but I didn't go with my gut on this one. I actually handicapped the race for a few friends to take to the track. Here is what I wrote, but unfortunately, I didn't follow through with what I told them...I left out Stormalory.

Four horses to look at in the paddock:
"Skipadate, Florentino, Mikoshi, Stormalory ...these are the only horses who have been pretty successful at running the distance this race is at.

Orthodox might be a notable horse to watch in the paddock; his distance suggests he won't finish strong though.

Florentino will probably be the favorite. If not, put money on him. The other three will be there as well. I don't know their racing styles...so not sure who has speed and who is a closer. That is why you have to examine their PP's and watch them in the paddock."

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The Ashland:

In the paddock Dream Empress seemed a little more nervous than usual. I told some friends and co-workers, but they said that usually she is a little nervous. I could just tell something was different in her that day.

Last year when I saw Dream Empress race at Keeneland for the first time, I fell in love and she was very commanding that day.

I lost some money in this race, confident that Dream Empress and Stardom Bound had this race in the bag. Man was it a shocker, but an exciting one. It was strange to see Stardom Bound have a bad trip.

I bet an exacta on 6, 7 (Dream Empress over Stardom Bound) and a win-place on Dream Empress. I went against my gut saying Dream Empress didn't look like she was herself...I over heard Desormeux explaining to McPeek while they were walking past the winner's circle, something about the ride and her not responding as desired.

She is fine, but I was bummed she didn't do better. There will be a next time =)

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The Wood:

For the Wood, I wanted to bet a trifecta, but was limited on funds after losing in the Ashland. I bet on a budget, so if I lose it all, it's no big deal, but of course that isn't the goal!

I instead bet a $3 exacta box with 1,2,5 (Atomic Rain/West Side Bernie, I Want Revenge, Imperial Council)

I didn't realize just how bad the start truly was for I Want Revenge until I watched the replay again. I am just very impressed with his desire to pull out that win!


Caption: My Ticket

Watch the Replay.
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Santa Anita Derby:

I also wanted to do a trifecta in the Santa Anita Derby, but had to cut back to an exacta box.

I used a $2 boxed exacta with 1,4,5 (Chocloate Candy, Pioneerof the Nile, Mr. Hot Stuff), and then placed a $2 win-place-show on Chocolate Candy. I am so mad I didn't dig up some extra cash for that trifecta...because I would have nailed it...grrrr.


Caption: My Ticket

Watch the Replay.
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Illinois Derby: Giant Oak

One word, can you guess? Show. I wasn't real sure of this race, so I did the safest bet, $2 to show on Giant Oak. He did one better and gnabbed second. The truth is, I only had $2 left in the betting funds, so that is all Giant Oak received.


Caption: My Ticket

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Capt. Candyman Can

I think he ran a great race and did everything right. I do like those Candy Rides and man o' man did Capt. look good in that race.

Watch the Replay.
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Carter:

Well it seems that Fabulous Strike and Kodiak Kowboy heard my shout out to them last week. Kodiak Kowboy is still a strong favorite of mine, and I happen to like Fabulous Strike as well.

Kodiak had a wonderful run and closed beautifully in the stretch.

Watch the Replay.
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Giant Moon

An old favorite of mine does some sweetness in the Excelsior Stakes (gr. III). He beat out Cool Coal Man, and was that a stretch match or what?

Watch the Replay.
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Terrain Work
courtesy The Keeneland Association.

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Caption: Terrain Working Out
Video: courtesy The Keeneland Association

Below is this past week's That Handicapping Show, it had some winners, as usual from Jason and Suzanne.

[brightcove videoid="18414080001"]

2 Comments

Leave a Comment:

Wanda

Thanks Adam you kept me in the loop the past 10 days.

08 Apr 2009 12:13 PM
aspradling

My pleasure Wanda

13 Apr 2009 12:06 PM

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