My goal this year was to choose 2-year-old horses early in their racing career, who would continue on to the Kentucky Derby. I wanted to use a few different tools, and test personal knowledge and wisdom gained from working in the horse industry for almost two years now. Tools like the Maiden Watch blog on BH.com, knowledge gained from working on auctions and family line data/publications, co-worker experience who were kind enough to explain horse racing ins-and-outs, and personal observation.
I am very pleased with the fact that selecting 2-year-olds has actually worked out. I have successfully chosen horses early as 2yo's who are still strong in Derby contention as 3-year-olds.
Terrain was one of my few remaining Derby picks from early last year. He had a not so glamorous trip in the Bluegrass Stakes, but I did like his effort in the final stretch to get up to fourth place at the wire. I still have Chocolate Candy in strong contention though. Atomic Rain has been disappointing and Imperial Council is on the fence. Capt. Candyman Can still looks good to me, but won't make it to the big dirt-y dance. Giant Oak was one of the stand out Giant's Causeways from last year, so of course I had to pick him early. Scooby Dubai was more for the name and fun, so I didn't mind if he never was in Derby contention. I think I am most bummed about Beethoven though. He was a pick from late last year, close to December I think, and I wanted him to do so well.
Late additions added in January were The Pamplemousse, I Want Revenge, and one or two others. I was very excited about the Pamplemousse, but now he and several others are off the trail. I am sure Old Fashioned being out of contention affects many of your lists.
So what is MY personal list looking like now? Probably starting to look like a lot of yours, since a few horses are injured or pointed away from the Derby.
1 Chocolate Candy
2 I Want Revenge
3 Pioneerof the Nile
4 Quality Road
5 Friesan Fire
Horses holding under my sleeve:
7 Imperial Council
8 Giant Oak
9 Mr. Hot Stuff
Steve Haskin has word that Giant Oak might be pointed to the Derby still.