Blaming my Derby winner choice on "The World's Most Interesting Man" is not too far from fact.
Stay Thirsty caught my attention last year, less due to his skill, and
more for the very fact that "Stay Thirsty My Friends" is the tag line to
one of my favorite television commercial campaigns in the last year. I
am a media man, so I tend to notice media campaigns.
While Uncle Mo was awaiting his first race in 2011, I had to post story after story of him working until his first start in the Timely Writer, after his Breeders' Cup appearance. All the while Stay Thirsty was Mo's working partner in crime.
Now in 2011, Stay Thirsty has still seemingly been considered second to his comrade, Uncle Mo, by the racing experts. Even performing well in works and in his races, he has not been on the top of many, if anyone's, Kentucky Derby list.
He is on the top of mine.
After the Breeders' Cup, Erica Larson and I divided and conquered the two homies. She is still choosing Uncle Mo, but I declare Stay Thirsty the top talent. Hopefully Uncle Mo won't be feeling ill Derby morning.
Fast forward to the last two weeks. Calvin Borel (Listen to his 2010 audio interview) has been working Stay Thirsty at Churchill. So you MUST NOW consider the increased Bo-Rail factor, who has won three Kentucky Derbys. Now let's add the BULLET work Stay Thirsty fired this week. These works by Stay Thirsty have also been on rather wet conditions at Churchill. I believe we will see a wet, probably not sloppy, track this year at Churchill Downs.
Wet + Calvin + Bullet = win.
I am not naive enough to 'bank' all of my money on the 20 horse field with only one horse.
I predict the official order will be:
Stay Thirsty
Archarcharch
Midnight Interlude
Uncle Mo
Soldat
...in this order.
The quick and dirty analysis:
Archarcharch has more rigor and experience this year period. He has shown what horses are suppose to be made of, by racing twice as much as Uncle Mo for example. Fit and tough.
Midnight Interlude is peaking and the peak could very well be the Kentucky Derby. This horse will get a piece, even with the lack of large field experience.
Uncle Mo is down but not out...so don't count the champ out! Rocky proved that you can get back to the top...I compare this horse to Rocky and he will leave you with a 'Cliff Hanger' for sure. I'm throwing out his bad race.
Soldat likes the slop and the track is going to be wet at Churchill this year, in my opinion. The slop is a huge advantage for Soldat. Again, he likes getting dirty. Need I repeat this point again?
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*UPDATE 4/26/2011*
Uncle Mo worked this morning with a nice 1:01 for five furlongs.
Midnight Interlude worked a bullet with 1:13 3/5 in six furlongs.
Are you listening to me yet? =)
Rammon Dominguez has picked up the mount for Stay Thirsty.
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The Rolex 3 Day Event is coming this weekend. A great helmet awareness campaign is giving away riding helmets and an iPad2.
"The popular helmet awareness campaign Riders4Helmets.com has partnered with generous sponsors to offer the largest ever giveaway of riding helmets with a combined value of over $6,500, in addition to a highly sought after iPad2. Visitors to the Rolex KY 3DE (April 28-May 1) may visit the Riders4Helmets area in the “old” indoor arena to register for the giveaway, receive helmet safety literature, and, have the opportunity to participate in helmet fitting demonstrations (times available online). Equestrians who are unable to attend Rolex may register for the giveaway by visiting www.riders4helmets.com (see giveaway tab on website). The giveaway closes midnight on May 1st, 2011."
