The Kentucky Derby's Most Interesting Horse: Stay Thirsty

Blaming my Derby winner choice on "The World's Most Interesting Man" is not too far from fact.

Stay Thirsty caught my attention last year, less due to his skill, and more for the very fact that "Stay Thirsty My Friends" is the tag line to one of my favorite television commercial campaigns in the last year. I am a media man, so I tend to notice media campaigns.

While Uncle Mo was awaiting his first race in 2011, I had to post story after story of him working until his first start in the Timely Writer, after his Breeders' Cup appearance. All the while Stay Thirsty was Mo's working partner in crime.

Now in 2011, Stay Thirsty has still seemingly been considered second to his comrade, Uncle Mo, by the racing experts. Even performing well in works and in his races, he has not been on the top of many, if anyone's, Kentucky Derby list.

He is on the top of mine.

After the Breeders' Cup, Erica Larson and I divided and conquered the two homies. She is still choosing Uncle Mo, but I declare Stay Thirsty the top talent. Hopefully Uncle Mo won't be feeling ill Derby morning.

Fast forward to the last two weeks. Calvin Borel (Listen to his 2010 audio interview) has been working Stay Thirsty at Churchill. So you MUST NOW consider the increased Bo-Rail factor, who has won three Kentucky Derbys. Now let's add the BULLET work Stay Thirsty fired this week. These works by Stay Thirsty have also been on rather wet conditions at Churchill. I believe we will see a wet, probably not sloppy, track this year at Churchill Downs.

Wet + Calvin + Bullet = win.  

I am not naive enough to 'bank' all of my money on the 20 horse field with only one horse.

I predict the official order will be:
Stay Thirsty
Archarcharch
Midnight Interlude
Uncle Mo
Soldat
...in this order.

The quick and dirty analysis:

Archarcharch has more rigor and experience this year period. He has shown what horses are suppose to be made of, by racing twice as much as Uncle Mo for example. Fit and tough.

Midnight Interlude is peaking and the peak could very well be the Kentucky Derby. This horse will get a piece, even with the lack of large field experience.

Uncle Mo is down but not out...so don't count the champ out! Rocky proved that you can get back to the top...I compare this horse to Rocky and he will leave you with a 'Cliff Hanger' for sure. I'm throwing out his bad race.

Soldat likes the slop and the track is going to be wet at Churchill this year, in my opinion. The slop is a huge advantage for Soldat. Again, he likes getting dirty. Need I repeat this point again?

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 *UPDATE 4/26/2011*

Uncle Mo worked this morning with a nice 1:01 for five furlongs.

Midnight Interlude worked a bullet with 1:13 3/5 in six furlongs.

Are you listening to me yet? =)

Rammon Dominguez has picked up the mount for Stay Thirsty.

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"The popular helmet awareness campaign Riders4Helmets.com has partnered with generous sponsors to offer the largest ever giveaway of riding helmets with a combined value of over $6,500, in addition to a highly sought after iPad2. Visitors to the Rolex KY 3DE (April 28-May 1) may visit the Riders4Helmets area in the “old” indoor arena to register for the giveaway, receive helmet safety literature, and, have the opportunity to participate in helmet fitting demonstrations (times available online). Equestrians who are unable to attend Rolex may register for the giveaway by visiting www.riders4helmets.com (see giveaway tab on website). The giveaway closes midnight on May 1st, 2011."

9 Comments

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FSF

Ha! I completely agree with you- I had not been paying much attention to 2-year-olds last year when I found myself in Las Vegas at a work conference, and took a couple of sports fan friends to the only Derby futures book open in October or November. They wanted to put some money on a horse that would really give them some return on a $20 bet, and since we all loved those commercials, we plunked some money down on Stay Thirsty. Fast forward to now, and our little $20 bets would pay out about $1000. Who would have guessed he'd still be on the trail?! But I have to say, I think he has the potential to be a really nice horse, and I wish TP would talk about him every now and then. I'll be cheering from him May 7th!

25 Apr 2011 6:11 PM
aspradling

I wanted to post an update...

Mo worked a nice 1:01 in 5 furlongs and Midnight Interlude posted a bullet 1:13 3/5 in 6 furlongs

26 Apr 2011 10:09 AM
Gardner

I'm not a stickler for Derby handicapping "rules", but I find it very hard to believe that a horse who finished 7th of 8 in his final prep is a serious threat to win the roses.  Not to mention Stay Thirsty got beat by a mind boggling 28-1/2 lengths.  

1957 was the last time a horse who finished worse than 4th in his final prep won the Kentucky Derby.  That was Iron Liege and even he finished a good fifth.  Also, that was the Derby in which Shoemaker misjudged the wire and stood up too soon on the leader (Gallant Man), causing him to slow down prematurely.  Iron Liege then won by a dirty nose.

Even Borel's most unlikely Derby winner (MTB) finished a respectable 4th in his final Derby prep.  

26 Apr 2011 12:58 PM
aspradling

Touche Gardner,

I totally see your point, but with 20 horses equlaizes many aspects and with the top talents still falling off the trail; I think my case of a wet track and the partners in crime (Thirsty/Mo) will 'factor' in the race.

26 Apr 2011 2:09 PM
aspradling

UPDATE, Ramon Dominguez is going to ride Stay Thirsty

26 Apr 2011 4:40 PM
slyder

The well is dry, If you bet this horse you are going to Stay thirsty.

27 Apr 2011 2:17 PM
aspradling

I like that slyder...clever and we will see who is thirsty, my top five have a good shot of hitting the board. I can respect thoughts on Macho Man, Nehro and Dialed In...but I think they will be bet more than Stay Thirsty. I'm in it for the dinero.

28 Apr 2011 3:34 PM
slickseats

Anyone here travelling to the Derby?


02 May 2011 4:29 PM
Stones

This was the first horse I keyed on for the Pool 1 Futures wager (dropped a ten spot on him and ended up with 41-1).  My attraction was 3-fold: his breeding screamed "distance!",he was the red-headed stepchild to Mo and...the beer commercial.

Not feeling all warm and fuzzy about him after that Florida Derby, though.

Archarcharch is my pick.

03 May 2011 9:44 AM

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