Kentucky Derby Analysis - Exceed the Speed

With so much speed entered in this year's Kentucky Derby, you have to consider that stalkers, and closers who sit just off the pace this year could pull out a victory. The catch is…with so much speed, you have to wonder if the mass traffic jam of tired horses will allow the one or two speed horses who have either stamina, or a second gear, to gallop ahead. Secondly, I wonder if off-the-pace horses will be able to clear the tired speed horses.

I will know who really looks ready to win in the post parade, but by the time the Kentucky Derby post parade happens, I will already have my bets placed.

My Quick Derby Picks pre-draw

Union Rags

Middle Ground:
Take Charge Indy
Daddy Long Legs
I'll Have Another

Off the pace:
El Padrino

Creative Cause
Daddy Nose Best

My Derby Picks post-draw

Take Charge Indy and Optimizer both will sit off the pace, so it is not necessarily a bad thing if they are boxed in early due to being on the rail. A fast break is not needed.

Bodemeister, Union Rags, Trinniberg, and Hansen will want to break very fast at the beginning and if these four can hit the front first, well, good luck catching them. I think Bodemeister will have the stamina, and Union Rags the will to win. Hansen and Trinniberg just don't have "it" in my mind. That is not to say Hansen is not a great horse, he is.

Gemologist will have to get around the crowd to get up to the front, but this will be the first big test for him. I think he does have the will and competitive nature to fight hard. I hope I'm not proven wrong.

Daddy Nose Best, El Padrino, Sabercat and Dullahan all have fitting post-positions for their running styles and with the speed going first, as long as they don't get caught trying to keep up with the speed, and sit back with a focused ride, they'll be there towards the end.

I want to really cheer on Daddy Long Legs and I'll Have Another. I do not like their post positions at all. It may take a miracle ride to push forward along the rail for Daddy Long Legs, but if he does…then he can cancel out the speed horses in the stretch. I'll Have Another will always have a chance, I may take a chance but am not sold with his post position. I am sorry to say I do not think Liaison will be able to overcome the 20 post position.

How will the horses who have not come from behind handle the dirt in their face and bumping? This is the true test. With ten horses that are proven, how many will show up in the Kentucky Derby final exam?  I am personally hoping a horse that has the stamina to win the Belmont.

Inside Tips:

Seeing Dullahan on the track swayed me to bring him into my Kentucky Derby picture. He is super strong and very fit. Same thing with Gemologist and El Padrino when they arrived yesterday…they looked very comfortable and quite formidable.

Of the horses I saw on Wednesday, I was a little disappointed in Optimizer's look, but I think he will still hit the board. Not win. I have watched other jog videos of Optimizer and he absolutely likes Churchill Down's track and jogs focused, in the bit.

I was impressed with Union Rags' presence. He did seem to be slightly stressed and more sweaty than the other hoses, not sure if that is a bad indicator though. Just look at Shackleford, he tends to get worked up but can perform despite that.

I wish I could have seen Sabercat and Daddy Long Legs.

OAKS Picks:
1) Believe You Can
2) Broadway's Alibi
3) On Fire Baby
Oaks Lily, if she gets in

Rank horses in the Kentucky Oaks!

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