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Top 6 Breed-to-Race Sires in 2008

Yesterday, I outlined what I feel are fair (and perhaps even rather strict) guidelines for a top breed-to-race stallion. Today, I'm posting my list of the very cream of the crop.

I'll start by giving "honorable mention" to a few stallions frequently cited as a good value for breed-to-race programs.  Rahy (on SRO) works great for those with a larger budget for stud fees (he's easily worth the $60,000 fee).  Bright Launch (on SRO) is a great source of the Relaunch line and I have high hopes for him as a broodmare sire, but his AEI needs to improve to make the list.  Finally, Say Florida Sandy (on SRO) looks promising but his first crop are just now 3-year-olds and it'll be a couple of years before we see how his foals will do.

Half of my top selections are lightly-bred sires (under 50 starters) and half are well-established (400 starters or more).  My criteria tend to benefit stallions with few offspring but whose percentages are high due to one or two stellar offspring -- and I tried to keep that in mind when figuring out my rankings.  So here goes:

  1. Slew City Slew (on SRO) has fantastic numbers across the board - his foals earn well above average, they have long careers (averaging 22 starts), 86% of all foals get to the races and 77% of those foals go on to win a race. His biggest negative is that he "improves" his mares slightly less than the other stallions on the list - but he also sees the highest-quality broodmares (1.36 CI) of these six studs, so his task is more daunting.
  2. Raj Waki (pedigree) is a son of the Mr. Prospector stallion Miswaki.  Hats off to those of you who've even heard of this Ontario-based stud.  His 29 foals (ages 3+) and 18 starters are even less impressive when you realize he's a 1987 model.  That said, he's got over 10% stakes winners, an amazing 83% winners-to-starters ratio, huge average earnings and AEI, and his foals start an average of 24 times. All that for only CAN$1,000.
  3. Intidab (on SRO) has made his way back to Lexington after being shuffled around for a few years.  For breeders looking to bring in the Icecapade sire line, Intidab offers some convincing statistics:  although he's another lightly-tried stallion (27 foals, 22 starters), a full two-thirds of his foals go on to win. He tops 11% black type winners, and he significantly improves his mares.
  4. My Friend Max (pedigree) is a Louisiana sire who you absolutely do not remember from his (completely undistinguished) racing career. It's hard to argue with over 17% stakes winners-to-foals, though.  We're not talking high-end stakes -- his average earnings per starter is below the $50,000 goal -- but black type is black type. The mares sent to him have a paltry CI and he brings them way up in class.
  5. Cee's Tizzy (on SRO) in California has a nice AEI, due in no small part to wonderhorse son Tiznow (on SRO). Cee's Tizzy falls a little short of average starts per starter and percentage of winners to foals.  His other numbers are mostly impressive, though, including AEI/CI, percentage of stakes winners, and percentage of winners to starters. 
  6. Devil His Due (on SRO) comes from a not-quite-commercial son of Halo and is out of a mare by a not-quite-commercial son of Raise a Native. His sub-5% stakes winners are a bit of a knock against him, but he looks to be a longterm source of durability and sees over 83% of his foals start in a race, with almost 73% of those starters going on to win.

My original list was about 40 stallions -- on paper, these are the six that made the cut.  But I imagine that there are some differing opinions....

46 Comments:

Was pleased to see that you had Cee's Tizzy listed but curious why you did not have another good California stallion that I feel should be listed named Bertrando?

Julie L. 26 Jun 2008 5:39 PM

I wanted to put Intidab on my top ten list but have been unable to loacate him. I know that he used to stand at Shadwell. Can someone please advise.

Jenny

  • Scot's reply:  He's on the Stallion Register Online: click here.
Jenny 26 Jun 2008 5:45 PM

Thank you for putting a Canadian stallion in your top 6- I'm from Canada, and would love to see a stallion make, how little as it is, helping the Thoroughbred out.  In this case by bringing in an old bloodline that will help freshen up the breed :)

Kayte 26 Jun 2008 5:48 PM

Six stallions made the cut and proved themselves the best value for breeders looking to keep and race

The Five-Cross Files 26 Jun 2008 6:17 PM

Nice to see Slew City Slew on your list. He seems to fire out the runners every year and always at least one really good one.I can't believe they never increased his stud fee over the years, he stood for 5,000.00 for years and years and I think he's 6,000.00 now. A most underrated sire and sire of sires.

Wanda 26 Jun 2008 7:11 PM

howv about MY FAVORITE PLACE?

YAMIL 26 Jun 2008 7:19 PM

Disappointed that none of the Buck Pond stallions made the top 6.  Stage Colony is there for $1000 (talk about value!).  He's got 73% winners lifetime AND has some much-needed stamina and durability to offer via sire Pleasant Colony and damsire Stage Door Johnny.

  • Scot's reply:  I've posted several times about Seattle Fitz (ARG) -- most recently here -- and agree with you that Buck Pond offers some of the best values out there.  Stage Colony is one of them!
Kaydee 26 Jun 2008 8:19 PM

The most bang for your buck. If I ever get into breeding to race, I definitely know where to go - north to Harris Farm for either Cee's Tizzy or his son Tizbud.

It'll be a long while before I get a chance at owning a Tiznow, though...

cybertron log 26 Jun 2008 8:32 PM

Good List Two were not on my radar:

I would have added Put It Back, Pioneering, &(older) Quiet American, (On your Top Forty?) They are on my Top Ten. (INTIDAB IS # 1)

One New York Sire I am watching is MAYAKOVSKY. His first crop are three year olds of 2008. Appears his foals might be late developers, but they are correct and balanced and 2008/2009 will show how they  run. It appears the mares bred to him so far are not "top of the line" so any success will be his.    

KAB 26 Jun 2008 8:42 PM

what about ky stallion out of place at 7500 i feel he is a great value

just enough racing 26 Jun 2008 10:48 PM

My Friend Max? Both of his biggest money winners from the same mare? Not feeling the love.

noogs1 27 Jun 2008 1:09 AM

the Devil is almost 20yo...wonder how many foals he has avg. covering each year?...i had him on my list a while ago & you like him too...Long Live The King!!!

Bellwether 27 Jun 2008 4:38 AM

I know he was just pensioned, but Crafty Prospector could have made your list, right?

Toral 27 Jun 2008 6:32 AM

I've run numbers on most SRO stallions accessible to VA, $7500 or below, and ended up sending a mare to Intidab for the reasons you cited and more.  I also noted that Lite the Fuse looks good (PA).  I tend to discount AEIs that are overly influenced by a couple of high earners (Slew City Slew, tho I still rate him highly.)  I also check to see that stakes production stays steady as the stallion ages-- if it's front-loaded then it's due to higher-class mares at the start of the stud's career.

Dawna 27 Jun 2008 8:21 AM

What about Wagon Limit? His foals run and run, and he's even had a mulitple Grade I winner with Silver Wagon.

FloridaThoroughbred 27 Jun 2008 8:37 AM

Would LOVE to see the rest of your list:)  How about sires in Texas?  Anything come to mind?

  • Scot's reply:  I like a lot of the stallions available in Texas.  One that I like in particular is Early Flyer (on SRO), who has his first crop of 3-year-olds in 2008. Lots of great bloodlines and a nice outcross to many popular sire lines -- plus he fits the "run and gun" sprint-heavy racing in/around Texas.
MIchelle 27 Jun 2008 9:46 AM

Mutakddim? Affordable and they can run.  

BTJake 27 Jun 2008 10:26 AM

Mutakddim

Put It Back

Slew City Slew

Right on guys!!!  Glad to see some people know value.   But you left one of the best out.  I know he's done here, but there are still babies to be bought.

      ROYAL ACADEMY.

john lex ky 27 Jun 2008 11:13 AM

Amen to Royal Academy.  I do hope they bring him back to KY.

BTJake 27 Jun 2008 11:30 AM

Devil His Due and Cee's Tizzy-yes, yes, yes!

ATB 27 Jun 2008 11:49 AM

I like Pleasant Tap.

Flyingm 27 Jun 2008 12:06 PM

Thanks for mentioning Devil His Due.  He is an awesome stud that I feel has never gotten the recognition he deserves.  All I ever hear about him is how tough and sound his foals are and with the problems in out industry I feel studs who sire soundness and durability should be given more attention:)

Michelle 27 Jun 2008 12:07 PM

Fascinating discussion.  I do however object to the AEI > CI standard for "improving mares".  The problem is that it ignores the sires of the mares' other foals.  For an extreme case, imagine a stallions whose mares' other foals are all sired by Storm Cat, A.P. Indy, Distorted Humor, and Unbridled's Song.  Does having an AEI < CI mean he doesn't improve his mares, or that he's just not as good as those four sires?

Another important point is whether the mares' other foals generally do better or worse than foals by the same sires?  A CI=1.00 where the mares' other foals are sired by stallions with an average AEI=2.00 is very differnt from the same CI where the other foals have a 0.50 average AEI for their sires.  In the first case the stallion is being bred to mares who consistently underperform their mates and the second case they overperform.  If two stallions with a 1.50 AEI have those CIs, the first may well be a better stallion than the second, even though the second has a larger AEI-CI difference.

It's a pet peeve of mine that thoroughbred sire statistics are about at the same level of sophistication that dairy cattle used back in the 1950s.  Over the last 40 years USDA has developed some incredibly sophisticated ways to evaluate dairy cattle sires.  I'm amazed that no one appears to even be trying to develop something similar for race horse sires.

LanceS 27 Jun 2008 12:13 PM

I would also add to the list, Cryptoclearance.  Underrated, but never fails to get a decent runner.

idealsong 27 Jun 2008 12:20 PM

Mutakddim.  Inbreed your mare to the Blue Hen mare Numbered Account through him and you have a push button stakes winner.  

Breeder 27 Jun 2008 4:40 PM

Info on Raj Waki

Jim Day of Dance Smartly/Sam Son fame has trained almost all his get. Far cry from "No Class" line mares and top sires which he had at Sam-Son.

He might have owned him or part? I don't know that for sure but someone with him was sending ordinary mares to him and if nothing else they would win--they also were good at a mile plus.

As mentioned many times UNUSUAL HEAT-EVERY SURFACE-moves his mares up universally.

REPENT----I suspect he will do well and cheap! At least now.

Valid Expectations-Texas-Bred money. They seem to be half the field make-up in those races.

Big money-STREET CRY-I'm impressed enough with his first few crops-he's the real deal

Slew City Slew has always sent runners, Cee's Tizzy underrated keeps sending runners without the great mares, Devil His Due -solid sire, sound horses, but when a friend sent "Deputy Jane West" to him some years ago--I couldn't believe it-Here is a champion filly, and good producer--He's solid but I would have gone to someone else with a mare like her. Especially if I was selling.

He's divorced now-wife's side had the horse-bad selection?

Marc W 27 Jun 2008 5:45 PM

to michelle,

for tx, it is all Valid Expectations.  Japs offered big money for him but Farrish, Stonerside, and the rest of his TX "power syndicate" know how important he is to keeping TX breeding alive!

Scott, good job on ur list, i know there are so many to sort through.

john lex ky 27 Jun 2008 6:07 PM

Everybody is forgetting a horse that has just passed away this year. He throws lots of runners. Bankers Gold!!!!!!!!

American Classic Thoroughbreds L.L.C. 27 Jun 2008 9:46 PM

Someone mentioned Buck Pond. Surachai was on my list two years in a row. He is a son of Slewpy and was raced out in California.

Jenny

Jenny 28 Jun 2008 10:55 AM

Scott - Although you mentioned the issue of sample size, I think you're underestimating it's impact on the predictive value of the statistics.  Your opinions of Raj Waki and Intidab are based on the success of three offspring.  There's simply no way to know if that's a fluke or not.  

  • Scot's reply:  Thanks for your comment.  In this post, I purposefully put forward a few names that are less known -- both to introduce some new names to an audience that is mostly well-versed in the stallions on the market, and to allow for geographic diversity.   

    In a formal study, one criterion would be sample size, and at least two of the horses on my list would have been eliminated.  You'll see in TBH MarketWatch that the studies are always accompanied by notes explaining criteria for inclusion, and one of these is always a statistically-significant sample size.

Alex 29 Jun 2008 6:19 AM

LanceS - That's something I'm planning to tackle as part of my ThoroughMetrics business.  I think one of the reasons that nobody has done so up until now is that relatively few people have access to the data they'd need to test the predictive value of the measures they develop.

Alex 29 Jun 2008 6:22 AM

Another sire that has done well given his opportunities is Catnieus.

Flyingm 30 Jun 2008 10:47 AM

Count me in with Wanda-- GREAT to see Slew City Slew on your list.

Now that Exchange Rate has moved up from Florida to Three Chimneys, I am looking for an improved book for him-- on our recent tour, of course, everyone wanted to see Smarty, but Anne was nice enough to honor our request for a close look at Exchange Rate-- very nice conformation.

As for regional sires not likely on your radar screen, I like PA's Lite the Fuse (Buckaroo) at $3,500 and down the street at the Maryland Stallion Station, Gators N Bears (Stormy Atlantic) at $5K a real value.

Bryce Be Quick 30 Jun 2008 11:49 AM

Note to add when talking sires that doesn't show up in STATS.

As mentioned above Raj Waki ----Jim Day (Dance Smartly Fame) trained about 80% of them.

Steve Asmussen has almost all the Seneca Jones foals as 2 yr olds-house stud

There are few better with 2 yr olds than him. Seneca Jones seems a good 2 yr old sire by stats---I wonder how he does when not in The family (Asmussen) stables???????

Some figures can be moved by who owns the stud and trains their get.

If you go back a good number of years a Horse/Stud named "Grand Revival" had Gord Huntley (one of the greatest and highest % 2yr old trainers of all time) train almost his  all his first crop (he bought them from the breeder in a package deal)-he had 13 2yr old winners---basically never to be heard of again after that season.

Just a little note of caution when noting the stats for you to consider.

I like this topic and many have noted a number of useful reasonable sires.

On a down note(sorry) it is getting more and more expensive to breed and  raise one for racing-it is almost safer and cheaper to buy a 2yr old---thus in turn--- 2yr old in training sales-speed inclinations---breakdowns and lessening the breed. That hard knocking 10K mare you breed to that solid 10K stud you are 30K+ in the hole by his first race if you are paying others to board and train him. Again sorry for the added info about costs above. Personal experience.

Marc W 30 Jun 2008 12:21 PM

A new stallion I have my eye on is Request for Parole raced until he was 8, good longevity and raced on both turf and dirt.

  • Scot's reply:  Make that another watcher!  I expressed some interest in Request for Parole back in April (here), and again 10 days ago (here).
Huh 30 Jun 2008 9:47 PM

Seattle Fitz,Request for Parole, Daaher,Flashy Bull and Pavarotti are all new stallions who I think could make an impact.

MachoAgain 01 Jul 2008 5:17 PM

Request for Parole sure presents like a throw-back kind of horse, what with his 50-plus starts. I know of a nice 4YO gr/r filly by Wekiva Springs just retired who always showed great heart-- once she gets her feet back under her she might be a nice addition to his prospective book?

Bryce Be Quick 02 Jul 2008 2:00 PM

Other obscure sires that have not had a large amount of foals but some impressive results are: BJ's Mark, Precocity, Desert God (sire of Pepper's Pride), Ghostly Moves, and Silver Season.  I would have added Game Plan and Intidab but they are not secrets anymore.  My Friend Max would have topped this list because he has had some serious stakes winners in Central America (for their part of the world) before he was brought back to the U.S.  And Cee's Tizzy...Slew City Slew...awesome!

Randy McBride 04 Jul 2008 12:51 AM

Thank you for the "honorable mention" for Bright Launch. He has been a very useful sire for me here at Hurstland and when bred to good mares, gets good runners. I did breed Gimmeakissee, a graded SW, grade 3 SP producer, to him this year. Also bred to him was Falconet, who is a 1/2 sister to Miasma, 2nd dam of Big Brown. Falconet has already had a graded SW in Puerto Rico, Bright Mahogany, by Bright Launch. As a broodmare sire, I have his SW daughter, Turn to Lass, who has a Broken Vow yearling colt in this year's Fasig-Tipton July sale, and is in foal to Empire Maker for next year.  So, I am trying to give him as much help as I can!

Alfred Nuckols 08 Jul 2008 10:39 AM

Blog trackback

The Five-Cross Files 16 Sep 2008 9:55 PM

I'm a little late to the party, but what about Strategic Mission.  Mr. P son, stellar female family.  By your criteria, he's a little light with %wnrs and durability, but AEI v CI is through the roof as is %SW (nearly 14% if you exclude 08 2YOs, none of which have started as yet).  And before anyone knocks him as a one horse wonder (in Showing Up...but what a horse!) take a look at his other 3 first-crop stakes winners from VERY limited opportunity (17 foals).  One is a 2YO Panamanian champion and MSW/GSP in NA.

Full disclosure, I am a bit biased as I stood him in NY and bred to him as well, but I think his numbers hold up.  But for a freak accident early in his stud career...who knows?  

Scot, any chance you would post a list of the other breed-to-race stallions on your radar before you made the final cut?

  • Scot's reply:  Tell you what -- for next year's rankings, I'll show data for all the group of sires that ALMOST made the list!
NY Gator 17 Sep 2008 9:07 AM

Statistically on improving mares and average earnings per foal, as well as stakes quality foals - I think you should add Dance Master (NM), Lucky Lionel (OK), Skip Trial (FL) and yes he still stands, Marco Bay (FL), Bring The Heat (FL), Sweetsouthernsaint (FL)Strategic Mission (KY). These are my picks for race breeding. They offer the same kind of quality as any of the big timer on a budget- Daryl Tuttle

additional selections 09 Oct 2008 10:12 AM

If one is on a budget and wants to breed to race, I think it's best to breed to a proven sire. We bred my wife's unraced 3day event mare to cee's tizzy and the horse, named Tiz Only Money, won 128k. We've bred to unproven sires with less success. We currently have a weanling filly by cee's tizzy that we intend to race.

Steve 27 Oct 2008 3:58 PM

I worked wih Jim Day and rode Raj Waki as the stable pony before he left for stud. His foals were all runner's and Jim day did train most of them. We had a filly Too Late Now that won the Canadian Oaks she went on to be three yr old filly of the year. Raj Waki has great blood lines and great temperment for a colt. He often took his own foals to the race track. Once his foals started getting more wins at the track Raj was sent away for stud and was missed at the track...

cinner 17 Dec 2008 5:40 AM

I worked wih Jim Day and rode Raj Waki as the stable pony before he left for stud. His foals were all runner's and Jim day did train most of them. We had a filly Too Late Now that won the Canadian Oaks she went on to be three yr old filly of the year. Raj Waki has great blood lines and great temperment for a colt. He often took his own foals to the race track. Once his foals started getting more wins at the track Raj was sent away for stud and was missed at the track...

cinner 17 Dec 2008 5:40 AM

Presented here are two mares that are similarly-priced, with stakes-winning dams and a couple of foals on the ground. So which one is the better deal?

The Five-Cross Files 29 May 2009 12:48 PM

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