If anything, the owners of the 20% are being greedy in demanding a higher price.  But then they are lawyers being charged with defrauding their clients...

Thanks for this.  I didn't think 20 million was too insanely low a price considering all things.  Seemed pretty reasonable to me.  Reasonable to most horseman and farms I would think too.  Not everyone pays out Maktoum family type prices for horses.  I thought the price Stardom Bound brought in at auction from IEAH was insane...but this is just coming from someone a little more conservative with the cash.

I believe that an argument could be made that even 20 million is an unrealistic amount given the status of the market. Smart Strike is not the second coming of Storm Cat or AP Indy, and outside of Curlin's earnings his progeny earnings this year would place him mid pack of the top 70 stallions. The analysis of the stud fees is dead on, and had this case been handled by competent lawyers when they first received a judgment, they might have had a better opportunity to maximize their value. I was a lawyer for 20 years (although not in Kentucky), and it is painfully obvious that none of the lawyers working for the plaintiffs have limited or no prior experience in the execution of a judgment.

Curlin's value is close to $40-50 million. The Best horse in the last 15 years. The highest earner beating Cigar's record.

I CAN MAKE A SOLID CASE FOR A VALUATION OF $32,000,000 TO $35,000,000 WITHOUT LEAVING THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE BUT I WON'T DO IT IN THIS FORUM.

COMPARING POTENTIAL STALLIONS WITH BROODMARES FOR VALUATION PURPOSES WON'T EVEN FLY IN WASILLA.

IF YOU BELIEVE THAT $14,000,000 MILLION WAS THE  REAL PRICE FOR BETTER THAN HONOUR, FIND A TRUSTEE FOR YOUR ASSETS.  WHEN ONE OWNS 70% OF A

MARE WHO WAS PREVIOUSLY PURCHASED FOR LESS THAN $3,000,000, WHAT IS THE ACTUAL OUT-OF-POCKET EXPENSE WHEN THE GAVEL FALLS AT $14,000,000

(BEFORE COMMISSIONS, SALES TAX, DEPRECIATION)?  BETTER THAN HONOUR WAS, IN THE END, ALMOST FREE.

SINCE 20% WAS AT ISSUE, WHY WOULDN'T MR. JACKSON OFFER MORE THAN THE $4,000,000 THAT HE OFFERED.  HE KNEW THAT HE WOULD MOST LIKELY BE THE ONLY BIDDER...WHY MAKE A DEFLATIONARY BID ON SOMETHING THAT IS GOING TO BE 100% YOURS WHEN ALL IS SAID & DONE.  IF 100% PERCENT OF THE HORSE WERE FOR SALE, THE WHOLE WOULD HAVE A MUCH HIGHER VALUE THAN THE SUM OF THE PARTS.

I agree with your evaluation of Curlin, Mr. Jackson, and the current market.

One point not made, Mr. Jackson has lost the 2009 season to establish Curlin with a quantity of quality mares. A few might be available at this time, but Mr. Jackson would do better by Curlin if he strictly limited the  mares bred and did not go for numbers this first breeding year.

How much was Secretariats value as  stallion? And what about te fact that The Green Monkey was 16 mil, are we suggesting Curlin is only worth $4 million more than a non winner? Personally I'd say in the $30-35 mil range would be approprate and him having a fee of $125,000 based on the fact that it would allow him to breed only te highest regarded mares to him, resulting in better early progeny and a return on their investment.

LET'S FACE THE TRUTH EVERYONE....WHAT I CAN SEE IS THAT JESS JACKSON NEED THE REST OF 20% FOR NOTHING....THAT IS NOT FAIR FOR THE PEOPLE WHO HAVE THE 20% OF CURLIN. THE SALE THAT JUST FINISH AT KEENELAND FEW DAYS AGO I SEE RAGS TO RICHES MOTHER SOLD FOR $18 MILLION NOW THIS IS A MARE WHO CAN ONLY HAVE 1 FOAL A YEAR. SMARTY JONES WENT FOR A $100MILLION AND THE OWNER STILL HAD 30% NOW WHAT WE NEED TO KNOW IS WHAT CURLIN WORTH AT STUD AND WAHT HIS FEE WILL BE....NO DOUBT, CURLIN IS THE BEST HORSE IN THE WORLD AND THE BEST IN THE LAST 20 YEARS. WHAT CURLIN HAVE DON ON THE TRACK SMARTY JONES, STREET SENSE AND THE REST HAVE NOT DONE....(1) WE NEED TO KNOW WHAT CURLIN WILL STAND FOR. (2) WHAT CURLIN IS WORTH AS A STALLION. BASE ON THESE FACTS THE OWNERS OF 20% SHOULD GET THAT AMOUNT OF WHAT HE'S WORTH..... JUDGE, CURLIN IS NOT JUST A HORSE BUT HE'S A BUSINESS AND SHOULD BE TREATED AS ONE. TO ME, FAIR IS FAIR.    

I would like to see how the people who value Curlin at $30m plus intend to make their investment back and without a southern hemisphere trip. Another thing is given the current economic situation how many breeders are going to cough up $125k for an unproven sire with an average pedigree given that the next highest first season sire price is $65k for Henrythenavigator (Who has a proper pedigree and beat Curlin) and Big Brown.

It’s not productive to compare Curlin to either Secretariat or the Green Monkey.

Secretariat was Horse of the Year in 1972 as a two year old. The next year he won the Triple Crown and his records in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes still stand. He was syndicated prior to the Kentucky Derby so that his owners could pay the estate tax assessed after the death of Secretariat’s owner and breeder, Christopher Chenery - the founder of Meadow Stud/Stable. Potential members of the Secretariat Syndicate were offered the opportunity to purchase a share of Bold Ruler’s greatest son for $190,000 apiece. The syndication was handled by Seth Hancock and he sold 28 shares at that price raising $5,320,000 for the IRS. Meadow Stable, managed then by Penny Tweedy, retained 4 shares. So Secretariat’s value was $6,080,000 - a world record at the time. That amount has been exceeded by many stallions since. Seattle Slew, for example, was syndicated for $12,000,000 and Fusaichi Pegasus for an estimated $60,000,000.

The Green Monkey was not valued via the syndication method. He was purchased at auction for an outrageous amount for a horse with absolutely no racing experience. His value as a stallion in no way is reflective of that inflated auction price and his stud fee for 2009 is $5,000 according to the website of the farm where he will stand, Hartley/De Renzo Thoroughbreds (http://www.hartleyderenzo.com/). Only time will tell whether or not he will be more successful as a stallion than a race horse.

When we discuss Curlin’s value, we do have to consider the current market. Many farms are reducing the fees for their stallions in response to the current state of our economy. So Curlin’s value has to reflect that. His appraiser even said that Curlin could have been worth $30,000,000 under different financial circumstances.

Since it looks like Curlin will never race again, his value has to be considered solely in his worth as a stallion. In the normal course of events, he will start breeding early next year. Any resultant foals will be born in 2010. Some of these could go to the weanling sales that year. Possibly, the prices they fetch will have some impact on Curlin's 2011 fee.  More of his first crop will be sold in 2011, but none will race until 2012. So Curlin’s stud fees for 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 will essentially be based on hope. Only when his babies start racing will Curlin’s worth as a stallion be determined with any accuracy. So a $20,000,000 valuation could turn out to be extremely generous. Only time will tell.

You're re wrong.  That was not public auction - it was a sealed bid private auction for 20% of a horse owned 80% by a controlling man and the 20% on offer will be contested by the jailbirds that own it now.  

The simple math on Curlin in a conservative manner is $75,000 x 300 which is 22.5 mil, and the normal pattern has been stud fee x 400 the past few years - which would be 30 mil.  Not taking into account southern hemisphere seasons or large books of mares. He might not be worth the 40-50 mil that he once was - and I know Darley has made at least two offers for the horse in the past in that range.

Curlin is going to Lane's End for 75k stud fee per Paulick Report tonight, and I would say they have the mare  power to make up for his slightly late start to the season - it is only mid November and Jackson's farm mgr. has been booking mares already and Jackson has a pretty decent broodmare band of his own. His sire Smart Strike sired the 2007 HOY/ 3 year old champ, best turf horse, and had one of the best sprinters last year - so knocking him now seems like a big reach.

You're theory on the huge expenses is off- for a horse that generates 7.5 million his first year alone (lets assume 100 mares in foal if bred to 120-130) the cost of insurance (about 3% of his value at stud once he not a racehorse), advertising, and board is less than 1 mil.

The whole idea of a stallion prospect is to BREAK EVEN after 3 or 4 years.  Once they settle the 20% interest - they can also syndicate the horse and take on additional partners to spread the risk and costs.

More on The Green Monkey:

He cost his purchasers $16,000,000. He earned $10,240 on the race track. Strictly considering gross values since I have no access to all the expenses he incurred in training and vet bills, and so on, his owners were at the best $15,989,760 in the hole when he was retired. At $5,000 a mare he will have to father 3,198 foals to turn a profit. If he sires 100 a year, it will take him almost 32 years to reach this number. So his owners are definitely hoping he’s better in the shed than he was out of the starting gate.

Of course he low-balled them. He didn't become the business success he is by offering fair market value on his first bid. He obviously thinks the horse is worth more. He also owns the 80% so he can overpay a little for the 20%. It will all be worked out and it will cost Mr. Jackson 7-8 million to close the deal and that is fair. He also didn't race(or at least plan to race and by default advertise) the horse all over the world so he can he could be strictly a NH stallion

And shamfan49 comes in with the best comments, by far, in response to this entry.  Well stated mate.  

The fact that not even one acceptable sealed bid was received validates the $20 mil price.

Absolutely ridiculous and ludicrously low price comparing it to BB's $50 million! It's a disgrace with Jackson trying to make a steal! He's out for himself.  It's an insult to the best race horse in a long time; with all his accomplishments, CURLIN deserve more respect than that number reflects! BB's price is ridiculously high! But let's compare the sum of the two horses' accomplishments in the past two years, and you should agree with me that CURLIN is worth way more than BB!!! If you don't agree - oh well! Maybe you can't appreciate CURLIN  and his spectacular runs in nearly two years, and I can only feel sorry for you.  This is about Jackson screwing CURLIN and, in the process, insulting us CURLIN fans; we're outraged! This brilliant race horse has done more for many of us than any other horse in decades! And for your information, I actually drove from MI to KY to see him in person in the Stephen Foster June 14; I was awestruck at his beauty and brilliance - not to talk about his professionalism1

GO CURLIN!!!!!!!!!!!

Curlin is worth more than BB... at BB's actual value.  BB was well over-priced when he was last sold sitting on a possible triple crown victory.  

Can someone please answer a question for me?  I have a fuzzy recollection of Curlin possibly having surgery to tweak leg conformation.  Is this true, or is it a faulty memory involving another horse?

[Any stallion requiring surgical work should automatically be less valued.]

>>Curlin is worth more than BB... at BB's actual value.  BB was well over-priced when he was last sold sitting on a possible triple crown victory.<<

Big Brown ran some incredible races, but his apparent extreme fragility would seem undesirable.

One thing that needs to be on everyone's mind is that the economy is in freefall.  What Curlin is thought to be worth is academic.  Unless he is marketed for stud very soon the really top class mares will be headed elsewhere.  Don't forget there are still some top notch stallions around looking for covers in a depressed market.  

Personally, I just don't see Curlin being a star stud regardless of his paper valuation.    

Dalziel, how do you come to that conclusion? Have you even seen Curlin or followed him? Are you plain ignorant or what? As you know, only time will tell what stud will end up as a star - depending on their offspring and their success on the race track. Curlin is a superstar; but it takes two, so the mares bred to him will contribute half! Educate yourself and be fair! And do not project your uneducated opinion on Curlin! He deserves better - no matter his connections. He has done plenty!

GO CURLIN!!!!!!!

All this talk about people being outraged that Curlin was appraised at 20,000,000 is rediculous.  Most of us are just fans that aren't involved in the business side of it.  As far as I'm concered, Mr. Jackson will end up with 100% ownership, and will end up paying more than 4,000,000 for 20%.  If Curlin ends up being a decent stallion and he stands till he's in his 20's, then it will all work out well.  I was happy to see him race at 4, and it was good while it lasted.  Time to go make some fast babies.

I believe Fares Farm didn't do any surgery to Curlin as a foal/weanling/yearling because they didn't think he was worth it.  Until he got onto the track he was a less than average colt.

Since Curlin did not win the Synthetic Classic and most likely will not be a successfull synthetic producer,  $20 million sounds about right. If he can't run and win races on a synthetic surface,  then its doubtful that his offspring will be able to either. Horses were made by God to run on dirt or other natural surfaces, NOT RUBBERIZED dirt that resembles grass more than anything. How pathetic is horseracing become.  Has Raven's Pass been bronzed yet?????

The $4 million valuation for 20% is probably discounted. Minority interests in other business deals are discounted for lack of control.

There are still folks out there that think Coolmore actually paid 16 mil for TGM?  More like 6 mil. before the auction so still in the hole....but not any more so than for past high money purchases.  The idea is to get one out of many that pay off the rest.

On Curlin, he had shins at 2 and Pitts took it easy with him and he may have had an OCD a a yearling so he went cheap at 57k.  

On bids, there were 3 in the sealed auction bid.  One from Jackson for less than 4m.  One from a major stud farm but the horse had to be available immediately which he is not per the legal issue.  And one was made outside the bidding process.  Jackson has right of first refusal on any bid or offer for the 20% so the incentive to bid at all is pretty low unless you just want to cause trouble for Jackson and run up the price - but then you could be on the hook for the 20% if Jackson had accepted a receiver approved offer. THAT is why there were so few and unacceptable bids - nothing to do with him only being worth 20 mil.  This is a game and it will be interesting to see who wins.  But I bet the jailbirds sure wish they had sold the 20% a few months ago to Jackson;)

Curlinlover,

I'm sorry if I pricked your obvious love of the horse, but let's get a few things straight.  He was a top  class horse, as a 3 year old and his BC win was achieved against a high class field.  However, what he did during in 2008 was at a significantly lesser level than his success in 2007 and I considered him to regressive.  I'm also a bit over this reported inability to run to his best on turf or synthetic surfaces.  This years BC Classic was, IMO, a real turning point for prospective stallions.  Dirt tracks are on the way out, It may take years before the KY Derby changes but more and more Graded races will be contested on these surfaces and there will be an obvious concern for breeders if a stallions either can't run on them or can't sire winners that run on them.  Curlin failed on both surfaces, not conclusive but potentially indicative.          

Brookhiser's comments are correct and pretty well documented.  There is no doubt he looked the proverbial million dollars when photographed but I'm more than a little bit concerned how that impressive physic was acquired.  I'll say no more.

On a purely commercial basis, the top people know what the bottom line is with 1st.season sires and unless Mr Jackson and his people manage to attract  the best available mares he's going to start his stud career at a distinct disadvantage.  He needs patronage from the likes of Darley, Juddmonte & Ashford and many other top echelon farms but those I've named  all have new stallions to promote themselves and his pedigree is good, but not stellar.  Correct me if I'm wrong but he sold for @ $57K, suggesting he wasn't a LOOKER as a yearling.  

Hey, I can get as sentimental about a horse as the next guy but until I see hard factual proof that he can sire top class horses, I'll be only to pleased to look elsewhere.  Bye the way, I also expect Big Brown to bomb, but in his case he's got the Boundary problem to deal with.

In case anyone was in doubt, I live in England.

For years the Brits/Europeans had to deal with the BC as the Wold Championship of racing when we already had the Arc meeting as an equally important event.  We came to you, usually with v,limited success, especially on the East Coast, until 2008 when we did rather well.  

The racing authorities at such venerable locations as Santa Anita, Del Mar & Keeneland see the way the wind is blowing and changed to synthetic tracks.  NYRA won't, sorry can't, because their broke and therefore that leave Churchill Downs.  I'm all for history, so yes, keep the Derby on dirt but in years to come it will resemble the Gold Cup at Ascot as a symbol of a previous age.  Fondly remembered as how things used to be.

Get wise, racing & breeding have changed, it's 2008, and we should get behind this new revolution and stop bitching.  If some trainers can't adopt to the new rules, then pack up and turn of the lights on the way out.

The bloodstock business has been detached from economic reality for many years. Seldom does a horse cover its cost from earnings on the track...A top horse might race as a 4yo & then be sold for a lofty price for breeding...So more horses can be sold for more breeding...Seems like a ponzi scheme...

There are a 100 'BLUE CHIP' DOW co's selling at single digits...The art world just had major global auctions that did not hit 50% of goals...A horse (like anything else) is worth what a buyer will pay...Remove the $ out of Dubai & Coolmore and what will any horse bring? TIME TO GET REAL!!

I fail to see why Curlin couldn't sire a top-notch turf or synthetic horse given his breeding. Smart Strike's best horses had been grass horses, yet he sired dirt horse Curlin. Curlin is grade I placed on the grass, so there is ability there. As another example, by that logic Tiznow should not be able to sire good turf or synth horses since he only won on dirt, yet he's had graded winners on all three surfaces.

With that said, only time will tell whether Curlin throws good horses for any surface. Given the economic times and market readjustments, $20 million doesn't seem horribly out of line. Really, a stallion can be valued only at what the market will bear. Right now he's valued on potential. In a few years, he will be measured by his get's success and his value will be readjusted accordingly (see Tiznow).

Dalziel! Thanks for your apology! it must be nice to know it all! Maybe you do; I don't know who you are, and I don't care.  Just answer two questions:  1.  Were you a "looker" at baby age? I sure wasn't! 2.  Why has everyone forgotten Dubai where Curlin beat the best horses in the world? That's right! But listen, noone can take away from my love for Curlin - not you, not anyone. CURLIN did nothing wrong - only his connections! not his fault!

I only have one thing to add:

GO CURLIN!!!!!!! Fo rever!

His win in Dubai was, IMO, his best performance this year.  After that, his powers appeared to be in decline.  

I'm not qualified to discuss the issues surrounding Mr Jackson or the Phen Fen people.  What I do have an issue with is this childish notion that the horse's spectre is in some way tarnished continued by his owners.  If I wish to take a view about Curlin's potential as a stallion it's got zilch to do with his connections.  I won't be holding out any exaggerate hopes that he'll be the next Mr.P, or even a Mr Greeley.  Time will tell.    

I would imagine part of the valuation comes from Curlin's pedigree. Let's face it, his bottom half is weak. True, his dam is by Deputy Minister, but she has produced nothing else of exceptional merit except Curlin. The next dam is by Bates Motel--hardly the height of fashion, and she produced nothing special, either, though she herself was a Grade 2 and Grade 3 stakes winner. The third dam is by Wise Exchange, another stallion who never set the breeding world on fire--he was useful. The third dam produced another Grade 3 stakes winner in addition to Curlin's second dam. And it goes on this way for several more generations. Nice, but unspectacular. It was a stroke of lightening that a horse with the class and talent of Curlin showed up in this family. His fifth dam, Jota Jota, won the Ashland Stakes, now classified as a Grade I. She was foaled in 1954. Half a century between Grade I winners in this family is a long time between drinks as they say.

A RESPECTFUL RESPONSE TO MICHAEL BEACH>

 -THE BLOODSTOCK BUSINESS IS MANY THINGS INCLUDING:  -A "FUTURES" INVESTMENT/GAME THAT INVOLVES A FORWARD LOOK TO THE HORSE, THE HORSE/RACING BUSINESS & THE GENERAL, WORLD-WIDE ECONOMY;  ALOT

OF THE RULES OF THUMB ARE ARCHAIC AND, IN SOME CASES, UNSOUND TO BEGIN WITH;  IT SOUNDS THAT YOU COULD BE A FAN OF "ARTIFICIAL INSEMINATION" IF GIVEN THE CHOICE;

PLEASE ATTEMPT TO CONVINCE MADELINE PAULSON PICKENS, e.g., THAT A HORSE(LIKE ANYTHING ELSE) IS WORTH WHAT THE BUYER WILL PAY; &

SOMEONE WHO APPROACHES BETTING A HORSE RACE USING A RACING FORM MAY HAVE OR GET TO HAVE A PASSION FOR RACING...A PASSION A "SHEETS" PLAYER COULD NEVER HAVE OR NEVER UNDERSTAND.

The CURLIN win in DWC was outstanding & if you study the efforts of horses after racing in DWC you will note that they have little racing success after the trip to Dubai for the DWC.

To NEVERKICKYOURDOG I spent many years traveling the world attending the major races & love the game. I also have a graduate degree in economics & view the breeding game as a ponzi scheme....THE NUMBERS TO NOT COMPUTE...

MICHAEL BEACH>  SINCE YOU LOVE THE GAME, YOU'VE EARNED THE FINAL WORD!

What effect would the fact that the sellers are sitting in jail trying to dispose of assets gained from illegal activities have on the offer of a potential buyer? What effect would the fact that the share is involved in combative litigation have on offers by parties other than Mr. Jackson?

Send daughters of Dynaformer to Curlin.  Might not be the prettiest foal in the pasture but that baby will run!!!  Bred for classic distance.  Plus, Nashua is the broodmare sire of Dynaformer's and Smart Strike's sires.  Get him 5x5 in the foals pedigree.

They should sent Better Than Honour or a mare lined by her to Curlin, what an interesting match that'd be, even a horse like Zaftig or Dreaming of Anna, maybe even Ginger Punch or Azeri?

AdueFarms3, Better Than Honour is by Deputy Minister and Curlin is out of a mare by Deputy Minister. That inbreeding is a little close.

Daziel, you've peaked my interest with your obvious horse knowledge. I'm a novice - having only followed horse racing seriously since Funny Cide.  Before that, I watched only the Triple Crown series like everybody else.  I know I come across as very defensive about Curlin; I'm a devout fan of his with even a silver Bengal cat named after him.  I feel like a defensive mother when people talk down about Curlin.  He has done so much to get me through a very difficult year, and I owe him getting through it through seeing him and cheering for him.  I'm sure sure lots of what you say is true; I actually do have some inside information confirming what you were hinting at earlier.  But since Dubai, Curlin has been "clean".  Doping is illegal overseas.  By the way, how many previous equine stars were clean? Only recently did this issue come into focus. And it should! We must take everything in context, however.  And what about Zenyatta?  She's great with a massive physique! Does that prove anything? Does that make us suspicious? Maybe - maybe not.  I'm sure lots of former horses became stars while being "juiced".  No excuse; and I guess you touched a sore note when you pointed out things I already felt to be true.  However, It does in no way lesson my love for an innocent Curlin who did so much for me personally, for the sport, and the fans - whether he ends up with HOY or not.  I'm grateful for having seen him. And I'm sorry he didn't have the likes of connections that funny Cide, Smarty Jones, and Babaro did! He would have been America's Horse! instead, people are - like you said - childishly critiquing him because of his connections. Michael Beach rightly said that horses aren't the same after Dubai.  I guess this might have been true for Curlin as well; I wanted him to be the same; but he wasn't. So, with due respect to your obvious knowledge, Daziel, let me keep my love for Curlin strong without getting upset when someone puts him down.  We shall see what kind of foals he produces! Nobody knows.  What Has Smarty produced so far?

I would personally love to see Dreaming of Anna hooked up with Curlin; she's like a smaller version; what a vision I have of that match! But Ginger punch! Wow! now that would be interesting! Or eventually Zenyatta? Hello?

Let's all enjoy horse racing without all this "fighting"; it can't be good for the sport. We should be sharing our favorites with each other without "taking down" others' favorites! Don't you agree?  This sport needs fans like us - no matter the opinions and favorites!But, as always, I will conclude with my slogan: :-)

GO CURLIN!!!!!!!!!!!

I THOUGHT WE WERE TALKING ABOUT WHAT THE HORSE IS WORTH.

"Horses were made by God to run on dirt or other natural surfaces"

This made me LOL.

Dirt a natural surface?

20 Mil for Curlin is a fair price, concidering that he is strictly a dirt horse and will have no appeal to the overseas market.

"Why has everyone forgotten Dubai where Curlin beat the best horses in the world?"

LOL, it was conciderd the worst DWC field since it's inaguration.

Curlinlover get real, in the BCC he meet worldclass horses for the first time in 2008 and got stuffed

Better than Honour should go to Smart Strike. . . And not to forget that the Breeders Cup Classic and Turf HOY in 2007 was English Channel, by Smart Strike.  He was a very different type of horse conformationally than Curlin, though.  Also, Smart Eddie, one of the better 2 year olds in the country has just come from Europe and runs quite well on synthetic (he was 2nd in the BCC for 2 year olds).  If Jackson could get the 20% of Curlin for $10, my hat would be off to him.  There'a a reason they call it "horse trading". . .

To Michael Beach, you are so right on with the Ponzi scheme comments.  It reminds me of the real estate market several years ago in Las Vegas, where I live.  People bought houses not primarily to live in, but to "flip" after a short time to make $$$.

Well, a few did, most didn't, and many ended up in trouble in the subsequent price correction.  Now the whole economy is in the crapper (with Las Vegas kind of Ground Zero).  Many parallels to the bloodstock market, I think.  There was a Bluegrass Bubble 20 years ago and it burst too.

Gunfightr - Curlin ran "lights out" in the Dubai World Cup as in the 2007 BBC.  That is acknowledged internationally.

Asiatic Boy was the first horse to win the UAE Triple Crown, he was no slouch.

"Curlin ran "lights out" in the Dubai World Cup"

Keep up to date with international racing and you will find that the timer was malfunctioning and the race was 2 sec slower than first reported.

And Asiatic Boy was never the same horse again after his season on turf in England.

To accurately access the value of Curlin, you need to look at the pedigree.  His family is very weak.  His dam is unraced.  Of her 5 foals (other than Curlin) of racing age, they have managed only 4 wins between them.  Sheriff's Deputy's 1st foal, Deputy, sold at FT in Nov, IFT Smart Strike for $220K. The 07 Saint Liam brought a bid of $600K in September at Kee.

2nd dam Barbarika was a G2 winner, but of her 12 foals, 9 raced, and only 4 are winners. Her 2yo of this year is still unnamed.

Other than Curlin and Barbarika, there is only one other graded stakes horse in the ENTIRE family. There are only 1-2 other stakes winners/stakes plcd horses.

The 2nd part of the equation is the racing record.  Curlin's best race this year was the BCC.  The rest of his races this year, he faced allowance or G3 fields even though they had G1 status. On dirt, he beat only a handful of G1 winners of which most were turf or synthetic horses (Einstein, Well Armed) or past their prime (Brass Hat, Asiatic Boy).  If you want to call beating a horse who ran for a tag 2 starts before a G1 as good competition, well.....He did not face nearly as good horses as he did last year...and last year while facing those horses (Street Sense, Hard Spun, Rags to Riches, and I'll even give you Lawyer Ron), he was 3 for 6.  This year, he hooks a good field, runs a high figure for synthetic, yet can only manage 4th.  I think the fact he raced this year without steriods also needs to be pointed out.

The 3rd thing to look at is the current market.  Keeneland was down 46% in November.  Stud fees have dropped.  The September sale was down.  Yes, they could price Curlin at 100K or $125K, but they would not get many mares, especially this late.  Curlin will make up a group of 20 stallions standing for $75,000 or more in 2009. The list is headed by the regally bred AP Indy at $300K and Kingmambo at $250K. Funny Cide's sire, Distorted Humor, is at $225K.  Awesome Again and his Horse of the year son, Ghostzapper are both at $150K. (GZ also has pedigree), Curlin's sire, Smart Strike and Unbridled's Song (sire of Eight Belles and Midshipman this year)are also at $150K. Giant's Causeway, who sired Heatseeker and others this year is at $125K (take a look at his pedigree!).  The 100K club is the blue blooded sire of Country Star, Acoma, and Muska: Empire Maker; Mr. Greeley (his fee is too high).  Gone West is down to $85K.  Those joining Curlin at $75K are the well bred Bernardini, Pulpit; El Prado (sire of Kitten's Joy, Medaglia D'Oro, and Artie Schiller),  Elusive Quality (sire of Raven's Pass, Smarty Jones), Indian Charlie (who sired Indian Blessing), and Tiznow, who had Well Armed, Colonel John, Da tara, Tough Tiz's Sis this year.

Given the current economic situation, people are more likely to gamble on a proven stallion.  For those that can't, they'll search in a much lower price range.

Lane's End does not do dual hemisphere (and to those who like that...boo hiss....its hard on the horse and who needs 300+ foals by one stallion in a single year? Do you really think that many mares match up to one stallion or are the farms just breeding anything?  I think we all know way too many horses are being bred.

A realistic book is between 125 and 140, which is a lot. Using the 80% live foal average, that is somewhere between 100 and 112 foals. That is $7.5 million to $8.4 million the 1st year. Insurance alone is 3% of the stallion's value, or $600K a year.  Plus marketing and care of the horse. Easily $1 million a year at that level. Based on 100 live foals, the 1st year "profit" is $6.5 million.

Year #2. Breeders will back away a bit. Why? Because their yearlings will hit the market when the first crop is racing. It can be either good or bad. Some as not as quick to judge by just a few months of a 2yo crop racing, but farms can and do discount.  The 3rd year is the hardest. By the time those foals go to auction as yearlings, the stallion has both 2 and 3 year olds racing and most people have made a judgement on the new stallion.  Its hard getting mares to a 3rd year stallion with some nice deals. But, even with sticking to the original stud fee, it's $6.5 million a year, 19.5 million...and that is short of the $20 million value.

Three Chimneys took a risk in thinking Big Brown would win the TC.  Then the economy declined. IEAH was smart, and Three Chimneys is left holding the bag. At a $40-$50 million deal, they will be lucky to break even EVER...unless Big Brown really turns out to be a fantastic stallion. They are pretty much screwed in this economy.

Had Midnight Cry been smart, they would have let JJ buy them out a year ago.  They have only themselves to blame for the current situation. They rolled the dice and lost again.

Interesting to note that Racing Form (the group that contested the time) still show his Dubai performance rating equal to the Monmouth BCC - even in the context of comparing Raven Pass performance at SA . . .  His Timeform rating also continues to reflect the same.

KatintheHat, only Beyers are manipulated after publishing.

NOTE TO CIGAR'S MOM:  1.  IT HAS TAKEN HALF A CENTURY FOR EINSTEIN'S

"e=mcSQUARED" TO BE PROVEN TO BE TRUE.  BREEDING RACE HORSES IS FAR MORE CHALLENGING.  IN MY OPINION, YOU HAVE OVERLY-SIMPLIFIED THE MOST COMPLEX OF SUBJECTS.

2.  HEADS UP TO BIG BROWN--IF YOU SEE A GUY BY THE NAME OF LUNDY WHO USED TO BE AT CALUMET, HE WON'T BE THERE TO SAY:  "YOU'VE DONE A HECK OF JOB, BROWNIE!"

3.  THE TWO BEST VALUES TO BE HAD AT THREE CHIMNEYS, IN MY OPINION, ARE:

  LEWIS MICHAEL AT $12,500

              &

   FLOWER ALLEY AT $20,000.

LEWIS MICHAEL IS THE BEST VALUE IN KENTUCKY...GREAT OUTCROSS FOR "ANYTHING"...GREAT FEMALE FAMILY...HE MAY TAKE THE GIANT STEP OF MAKING RAHY A SIRE OF SIRES.

(NOTE:  IF YOU SEE SMOKE COMING OUT OF ALL 3 CHIMNEYS, IT WON'T BE BECAUSE A NEW POPE WAS ELECTED...  THEY GOT OUT ON BIG BROWN.)

I ALMOST FORGOT TO MENTION, I CAN STILL MAKE THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE CASE FOR CURLIN AT $32,000,000 TO $35,000,000 WITHOUT HIS OBTAINING A VISA/PASSPORT!

Cigars Mom, if your going to look at family, look at both sides and some of the relatives. Smart Strike is a leading sires, and has produced more that just Curlin. Plus smart strike has sired sprinters, synthetic horses, and turf horse, so Curlins sire line, not all too weak. Also some relatives are Square Eddi, one of the top three juviniles this year, and English Channel, last years BC Turf winner and Eclipes award winner, just to name a couple. You can't just look at one side of the family, especially if the other side has had such success. Also you can't perdict that just because some horses in his line didn't do real hot, means he won't. Some of the best broodmares have done absolutly nothing on the track, like BTH or Secretariats dam, i think, Somethingroyal. On the other had there are mares who were fantasic on the track and didn't do a darn thing as a broodmare, like Genuine Risk, sorry if i mispelled any names. Also breeding is quirky, you may put two spectacular horses togeather and get an absolute dud out of it. Some of the best horses have come from modest backgrounds. Did you know that Secretariat had a full sister, well if you didn't the reason why is because she didn't do a darn thing on the track. Also Bold Ruler was know for producing sprinters, and look a what secretariat did, o just won the Belmont by 31 lengths. If you keep think the way you do then your never going to make much of a breeder.

Also for Curlins record last year how the world did you get three for six he raced nine times, WINNING SIX times. He raced in his maiden, the reble, the AK Derby, the KY derby, Preakness, Belmont, Haskel, the JCGC, and the BCC. He won his maiden, the Reble, the AK derby, got third in the KY derby to HS and SS, won the preakness beating HS and SS, got second in the Belmont to RR, beating HS, third in the Haskel to AGS and HS, won the JCGC agains Lawyer Ron, won the Classic against LR HS SS and AGS. The record for Curlin vrs. SS is  Curlin 2 SS 1 out of three. The record for Curlin vrs. HS is Curlin 3 HS 2 out of five. RTR and him only race once at her prefered dist., and she won by a diminishing head. The record for Curlin vrs LR is Curlin 2 LR 0. Curlin's not so bad family and race record, winning in Dubai twice, once under 132lbs the other eight lengths ahead of everyone else, w/o steroids should go to his credit. Also tell me why everyone before the DWC was say that is was a fantasict field because of the likes of Jalil, Asiatic Boy, and Premium Tap, and now that curlin won so easily you say it was a weak field. I remember many saying it would be Curlin's biggest challenge yet, and not you say o those horse weren't all too much, or they were past their prime. Well if i remember correctly Jalil had just won his prep before the DWC and was looking awfully good, Asiatic Boy, was the only Dubai TC winner and ran a very game second to a dangerous Well Armed who got away with a slow pace, and Premium Tap had been racking up wins and runner ups ever since he came to Dubai. Yeah that sounds real weak. Why don't you all stop being so hypocritical and actually admitt that what Curlin did in Dubai is unprecidented.

Gunfighter, it was one second slower, and honesly i timed it with my own stop watch and got him in a second faster, and yes it is a real stop watch, not some some weird cheap thing you get out of a cerial box. I timed that race multiple times mind you and got the same results every time, only differing at most three tenths of a second. Go ahead and time it you'll see what i mean.

LPD did you time it the US way (25 yards from the gate) or the Euro/Dubai way (from the gate opens) ?

I timed it the Euro/Dubai way. Why do we time like that, that seems a bit unfair to me. In my oppinion it should be when the gate opens in every race, since that is when the race start. I swear to god i am not lying. You can test me if you want. I went to get my stop watch again last night to see, but couldn't find it. I watch soccer sometimes, and use it to time the halves, normally, so i probably left it somewhere. But as i said if you time it the way i did, from when the horses leave the gate to when their noses touch the wire, and you get a different result, feel free to corect me.

Gunfighter,  I'm glad my comments made you laugh, "horses were made by God to run on natural surfaces".. Lets see if anyone is laughng in a few years when they have to sell Curlin to Korea because he CAN NOT produce anything that will run on rubber or turf.  I have been around horses many years,  you'll see.  Also,  are you aware that in Europe they race on a natural surface called GRASS.  Did you know that?????  Laugh all you want,  that horse will be in a foreign country within 5 years.

Whatever, you calling "dirt tracks" natural surface is what made me laugh, and perhaps Korea would be the right place for Curlin and his "dirty" connections.

Gunfighter i timed the race again and got 1.59.19. I didn't get the exact splits but from my quick glances, the first quarter went in 24, the half in 47, three quarters 1.10, the mile in 1.34, then the final time in 1.59.19. That means the ran quarterly splits in 24, 23, 23, 24, 25. Thats actually pretty fast. If anyone else has a stopwatch can you time the this years world cup, that way i know i'm not crazy.

Let me take this conversation on a different level

1-Racing is a dying sport in NA

2-Breeding is on a bubble, it has been for years supported by foreign interests and slot income for state breeding programs-yes there are exceptions-but!

3-The breeding game is completely different than the days of Northern Dancer-he would be lucky to service 40 mares a year-owners of his syndicate would normally supply them. Now we have 100 Storm Cat sires for example out there that hadn't started or showed little in their racing careers at stud. The breed is watered down and a sire sees possibly up to 200 mares AND may shuttle south.

Does anyone play the market? Sooner or later the fundamentals must come into play. Yahoo and other tech at 6000 x earnings at one time-eventually it comes back to earth. Breeding is out of whack as is the game. We race to breed not the other way, as it should be. Curlin' s 10 million racing earnings against AP Indy's yearly take?

I truly believe a doom and gloom scenario -in the next 15 years breeding in many states will start to die unless supported by slots. Tracks will as well-neither is particularly a bad thing. Eventually the slots and casinos will win out and stop funding tracks in the next 20yrs. We will be left with "stand alone tracks & strong racing markets that will have the interest of a dedicated select niche crowd as on these pages.

Now “dray” may hit me with beautifully displayed computer read backed facts to take a stand against my comments-----Yes, I could be wrong on the future but I don’t think I am. I was raised next to Fort Erie racetrack., saw Mickey Rooney, Mantle, Bobby Hull, Jane Mansfield and other famous people I got within a few feet of as a kid stopping by, the stands full. Woodbine, and Greenwood (Gone) the same. Pages of three Toronto newspapers dedicated to racing as well as two Buffalo papers carrying a racing reporter and entries.

I have worked around great horses and people in the business. Its different now-if Fort Erie and it’s once beautiful track which rivaled any, now only draw under a thousand most days-the grandstand is now limited to a fifth of the space or less once afforded for seating. Rockingham best racetrack food ever-dead to TB’s, Delaware just on life support from other means than handle, Atlantic City,  Hialeah and on and on. If the tracks are dying without prop-up support how can the breeding farms prosper? $20 million not enough? GM stock at $3.00? Sometimes we have to admit-things are not what they were.

Sorry for the gloom and doom-sometimes people have to stop living in a fantasy world-God help the Sheiks if we don’t need oil or develop a alternative fuels---hope they left space for slots at their tracks.

Correction on the above comment when I gave credit to dray instead of shamfan49 for beautifully computer facts display. Dray is strictly comments on how great Big Brown is. Sham comments are a cornucopia of facts well written and displayed. (Although I believe he has great book knowledge he is sort of like I was in University-on a written test-I took neural studies after my Biology degree while working at the track---more than you need to know-I could ace written tests but my lab work was ordinary at best. When dissecting a human the parts didn't the same as the multi-colored parts they had in the books the color varied little-they were different when they were live and what you saw experiencing the real thing.)

No one commented on my doom and gloom anyway--mark my words the end as we know it is coming in horseracing. Not the end but a new beginning for the more positive in the crowds.