I am curious, what exactly do you like about Nobiz? Albert the Great sires 70% starters, 46% winners, and a whopping 2% SWs. His sire, Go for Gin, sires 73% starters, 45% winners, and a whopping 4% SWs. And he drags down his mares about 10% doing so. What makes you think Nobiz will be any better than his sire (better racehorse, much better family) or grandsire (much better family, same quality racehorse)?

• Scot's reply:  Valid questions.  I like Nobiz's pedigree because of:
• - his top/bottom RF to fourth dam Swoons Tune -- a pedigree pattern that reinforces a quality family, and tends to work well in many stallions' pedigrees
• - his broodmare sire.  While I rarely advocate breeding to Storm Cat lines, it's hard not to recognize him as a developing damsire-of-sires. 

 

I believe Albert the Great was overpriced while he was in Kentucky, one factor in what I believe was a couple of books of GOOD mares, but ones that did not really suit his genetic influences. 

BTW, when looking only at ATG's foals ages 3+, my calculations show  78.8% starters, 52.9% winners, and 5.3% black type horses.  His overall AEI actually IMPROVES his mares (1.35 AEI vs. 1.23 CI), which is pretty remarkable when you consider that those numbers include his 2YO progeny at 0.24 AEI -- he's obviously not a sire of precocious runners.

i thought Tiago isnt retired?

• Scot's reply:  You're right -- he isn't officially retired.  Tiago is listed as a "future stallion" at Adena Springs.  No fee has been set for 2009 -- but Adena entered him as a 2009 stud in the Stallion Register and for other services (such as TrueNicks).

I'm so glad you appreciate Nobiz too. He was one of my favorite horses and I feel like a lot of people just don't recognize him (or his sire.) I'm glad you are excited about him. I think he'll be an awesome sire. :)

I'm really curious as to what's going to happen with The Green Monkey... I mean, the poor guy didn't even manage to break his maiden, and was retired due to injury! Are his pedigree or his 1/8th of a mile work at the sale as a 2yo really enough to indicate that he's stallion material?

All I can think is that he's priced low enough that people will take the chance of his becoming a great producer. But honestly, with all the foals that are being produced, with all the horses at this year's auctions failing to meet reserves, will people want to make that gamble?

I always thought TGM would make a really cute gelding...

i like LEWIS MICHAEL...to almost any mare.

i also like LEWIS MICHAEL to truly get RAHY to an honest "sire of sires' level.

what about curlin, or majestic warrior, or scat daddy?

Considering your previous post about Damascus sire line, what do you think about Big Brown? Damascus comes through the female line on top and bottom, there is a Roberto & Northern Dancer top and bottom. To me, that points to him bringing a lot of good lines to the table.

• Scot's reply:  Karen, thanks for the comments.  I mentioned Big Brown's breeding about a month before the Derby (see the old post here) and spoke glowingly of both the *pattern* of inbreeding, and the specific ancestors inbred.  To tell you the truth, I think Big Brown will make a more important SIRE than he did a RACEHORSE.  That said... I would pay even more attention than normal to the mare's conformation.  Her hoofs had better be made of thick steel and attached solidly, to correct his most discussed shortcomings.

I will always like Curlin- he has never had soundness issues and he is one handsome looking horse.  Whereas with Big Brown, breeders have to be careful breeding mares with weak hooves, Curlin will be attractive to any mare (from a confirmation stand point)

I will also be following Tiz Wonderful's stud career.  I liked his sire and will be interested to see how his son does.

scot, you keep referring to inbreeding to important ancestors and I'd like your opinion.  I'm looking at War Pass and i've noticed that if i breed Miss Delta Dawn to him, i get 5x5 to the nice mare BAYOU.  Is that too far back to be significant, and does it matter that on the dam's side it comes from the sire line and not direct female line?  I've also noticed that Herbager works nicely in Bayou's family.  Does the mare's one dose of Herbager thru Grey Dawn help at all?

• Scot's reply:  Thanks for the comment. Interesting that you should bring up inbreeding with the mare Miss Delta Dawn -- her 6-a female family descends from the Spanker Mare, widely thought of as the matriarch of the modern Thoroughbred breed and herself a 2 X 1 inbreeding to Old Bald Peg's daughter, the Old Morocco Mare.  (Rommy Faversham writes in Racehorse Breeding Theories that the Spanker Mare "is the fundamental connection amoung the great original male lines ... all three -- Eclipse, Herod, and Matchem -- demonstrated multiple, complementary strains of this Spanker mare within their pedigrees.")  ... That said, I'm not sure that a 5 X 5 inbreeding is especially significant, but it is a nice pattern.  The War Pass-Miss Delta Dawn mating would be a similar sireline match to Zanjero (nice!).  ... I also like Sligo Bay (IRE) (SRO) with Miss Delta Dawn -- a very similar match-up (Northern Dancer over Halo, with resulting Almahmoud inbreeding) to her as Pine Bluff, the sire of her 1997 stakes-winning gelding Langston.  You'd lose the double to Bayou, but pick up a 4 X 4 cross to Herbager.

What are your thoughts of Notional? He was a tough luck race horse that was highly thought of and missed the Kentucky Derby due to injury, but came back to win the Salvatore as a 4 year old.

• Scot's reply:  I'm interested in readers' reactions to Notional (SRO) as well.  I'm a sucker for Rasmussen Factor inbreeding, and I like the 4 X 4 cross to Myrtlewood's great-granddaughter La Morlaye.  This line (female family 13-c) is America's premier stallion-producing family, which bodes well for Notional.  I like the Deputy Minister-line as the damsire, as well.  My only concern is the paltry 12 starts in three years -- but even then, we've got a nice mix of black type on turf and dirt, and at ages 2, 3, and 4.

What do you think about sightseeing, he is by Pulpit, from a Pleasant colony mare.

Regarding Megan's comment on The Green Monkey, maybe he should be bred to sport horses; he'd probably throw a lot of chrome for flashy dressage and/or hunter-jumper horses.  He is a looker, but I guess that was all, pedigree or no pedigree.

Of the new sires that I have visited at the farm I found only one horse to have the true "Wow" factor when I saw him.  It was Street Boss!  I was a little surprised that he was so refined and flashy!  I am going to breed a couple of mares to him!  What lines do you feel works best?!  Other stallions I like physically are Curlin, Notional, and Divine park!

tiago is one of my favorite horses to come along. he gets overlooked because he was part of a stellar 3 yr old class. he finished 3rd in the belmont but, if u take curlin and the rags to riches out of that race he would have one it easily. if u look at that race again you'll see he was closing on them like a mad man. as a sire, i like him because he'll pass along durability and stamina. on that note, i'm also lookinf forward to seeing what sun king will do as a sire. also, his dam, having also dropped his bro giacomo, dropped 2 grade one winners in a row-that doesn't happen by luck! so the pedigree is definitely there. tiago and giacomo will both be good sires for those that breed to race. having said all of this it would be nice to see moss family run him one more year and campaign him on the(dirt) east coast. he's a graded stakes winner on synthetic and dirt but, his closing kick is just that more effective on dirt.

I have a mare from the family of Sligo Bay - Sixta - I bred her to Posse in 07 - The foal is 5x4 to Ballade and 3x4 to the full sisters Glorious Song and Angelic Song. Any thoughts on this mating? Sixta is back in foal to Political Force.

• Scot's reply:  Fascinating pattern on this breeding.  As you mentioned, you have Ballade and Glorious Song/Angelic Song... but there's also a 4 X 3 cross to important sire Vice Regent, and additional crosses to both Northern Dancer and Nearctic within five generations. I see that this is Sixta's first foal and think you chose well, based on the paper pedigree  Having said that... the filly comes from a dam line that shows only one total start under the first three dams -- if there's a conformational reason that these mares haven't run, I hope that Posse was chosen as much for his ability to correct the flaw(s) as to provide the smart inbreeding patterns.  Best of luck with the filly -- and with Sixta's Political Force foal in '09!

The most impressive first year sire I saw last month was Midnight Lute. I was wondering what you think about the two time Breeders Cup Sprint Champion?

• Scot's reply:  Thanks for the question, Michael.  I'm afraid I've never seen Midnight Lute in person -- though he is of course on my list to visit!  Real Quiet is one of my all-time favorites -- he's got the sire (Quiet American is from the best line of Mr. P., as far as I'm concerned -- and is inbred to the incomparable Dr. Fager) ... the female family (blue hens Gay Hostess and Your Hostess) ... and the record (grade I's at 2, 3, and 4, and a heart-breaking miss of the Triple Crown by the smallest of margins in the '98 Belmont).  Midnight Lute's positives don't end there, of course.  I also love Deputy Minister as the damsire line (and Dehere in particular looks to carry on that tradition).  I'm less familiar with Midnight Lute's Italian family, but I am impressed by his second dam, the graded winner Bolt From the Blue.  ... Add to that a double championship (tempered by a light schedule of only 13 races in four years) and I'd say the newest Hill 'n' Dale offering is worth some real interest.

Notional---- In Excess has had 3 good sons at stud- Indian Charlie, Bring The Heat and the deceased Gibson County. All of these have done well with less than average mares. He ran on dirt,turf,long and short. I think it would be a mistake to overlook him. I have a Grand Slam mare who is 4x5 to Mr P that I am sending to him. What lines or ancestors would you suggest.

I like Divine Park. I am just amazed at the runners Chester House has produced. It's a shame he was lost so soon, the small sample stands up to anyone's numbers.

This seems to be a nice crop of first year sires-Scot, who do you think will make a splash from a commercial perspective? For the sake of discussion lets exclude the obvious choices: Curlin, Big Brown and HenrytheNavigator.

• Scot's reply:  Interesting question -- and of course, the stallions whose FIRST crop is commercially in demand aren't necessarily the ones who are "commercial" eight or 10 years from now!  I'm going to guess Midnight Lute and Lewis Michael and War Pass will all spark plenty of interest at Keeneland September 2011 (first yearlings).  For my money, I'd head to Florida:  Gaff at $3,000 is enticing, and I'm expecting Deputy Glitters to head to Kentucky after a few years -- his $2,500 fee will look like Dynaformer starting out at $5,000.  I also like Keyed Entry and Indy Wind down in the Sunshine State.

Speaking of in-breeding, I am fascinated on how my mare An Attitude matches up with Mizzen Mast. Caro back to Caro has seemed to work in the past but this particular mating doesn’t get a good True nicks rating.  Maybe it’s too much and too close.  What do you all think?

• Scot's reply:  I guess to sum it up for those who haven't run the cross on paper, both Mizzen Mast and An Attitude are by sons of Caro (IRE) and out of daughters of full brothers Graustark and His Majesty.  While you're right about the low TrueNicks rating, Gray Rider, I will point out that you have to go back three generations in the sire line, and four in the damsire line, to come up with a valid rating -- meaning that the larger Caro/Caro cross hasn't been tried much.  Ten or 20 years from now, we'll probably have a much better idea of how well the specific Caro/Caro nick works. If you try this match, you could be blazing an exciting new path. ... Looking at An Attitude's produce record, it looks like she's been tried with a variety of stallions without having a real break-out foal... but her $302,976-winning grandson Brigader is exciting.  Might be nice to see her bred back to the best influences in her pedigree.

When breeding in general. Is there a rule of thumb as to how much influence a horse can have when it is in the 4th or 5th generation.

A good friend has a maiden stud bred 2 X 3 on Damascus and he has suggested trying to breed A.P. Indy or storm cat mares to bring in Nasrullah. My question is can you expect to bring in Nasrullah that far back and have any benefit from it?  Seems to me there would be significant influence from the generations closer up.

• Scot's reply:  Science has seen great progress in genetics knowledge, but a lot remains of the great mystery.  Mathematically, the first generation (parents) should each have a 50% influence... 2nd generation 25% ... 3rd generation 12.5% ... 4th generation 6.25% ... 5th generation 3.125%.  In practice, it appears that genetic influence varies widely.  One example:  Fappiano appears to have received more influence from his DAMSIRE (Dr. Fager, in the 2nd generation) than from his own SIRE (Mr. Prospector, in the 1st generation). ... As for the influence of Nasrullah in distant generations:  it depends on the individual.  I will say, though, that several pedigree experts I admire have told me the same thing about Nasrullah:  the only thing better than a horse with two crosses to Nasrullah is a horse with three crosses. 

Scott, 3 things.

1. "Into Mischief", Do you really see Harlan's Holiday becoming a sire or sires?

2. In your Opinion, why should someone breed to No Biz instead of to his sire Albert The Great?

3. What is your opinion of the breeding/co breeder programs quite a few farms are offering to breeders this season? Do you think they work more in favor of the stallion or stallion farm to keep their numbers steady, or more toward the mare owner so they dont loose a breeding season on her repro record and the possibility of lost income from the 2010 offspring?

Thank you,

• Scot's reply:  Hi Crystal.  Hmmm... let's see.  1/ Into Mischief/Harlan's Holiday:  the Harlan branch of Storm Cat looks to be a source of class across generations.  Gotta wonder what would've been if Harlan hadn't died young.  (Same story for Maria's Mon -- which is why I'm so excited to see Gaff in Florida, and other sons in NY, KY, PA.) ... 2/ Nobiz Like Shobiz vs. Albert the Great:  for the first couple of years, I'd recommend NLS over ATG for commercial value, just because he's a hot new sire and ATG is seen as more of a breed-to-race stallion.  And for a larger percentage of the breeding market (in and around KY), NLS is just more convenient, now that ATG is in PA.  ... 3/ Farms as co-breeders:  I'm all for farms coming up with innovations to make racing and breeding more inviting to smaller breeders.  I hope that farms are playing it smart in this type of transaction, and making sure the mares really match up well with their stallions. We don't need new programs to add more QUANTITY to the annual foal count, but having stud farms act as partners to ensure better QUALITY could be a stroke of brilliance.

Ah ... The Green Monkey. Gotta agree with Megan: He'd make a cute gelding. I just don't see the point of offering him at stud, but then I never understood why he commanded the price he did.

Adele, interesting thought about offering him to sporthorse breeders, but his fee would have to come way, way down. There's not a strong market for full-TB sporthorses anyway (which is hugely unfortunate) and for his stated fee of $5,000, a sporthorse breeder could have his/her choice of proven international, Olympic-caliber stallions. There simply isn't a good reason to use him.

As for the original topic, I love Midnight Lute. That is one fine, fine looking individual who delivered on the track.

I would suggest that chrome does not a sports horse sire make. . .

The most influential thoroughbred sports horse sires are loaded with Bay Ronald blood through either Dark Ronald, Bayardo, or Teddy (through his dam, Rondeau).  Although GM does have some nice line breeding on top to this line, there is nothing on the bottom.  In addition, it would be nice to know the horse is well balanced (on the hind end) and athletic, has good freedom of movement through the body, and has an excellent mind.  No good horse is a bad color. . . And certainly, at 5K, until history proves otherwise, you could make much more educated gambles with the breeding wheel.

Hi Scot, Wanderin Boy had such a beautiful pedigree, things that you talk about--Ribot through His Majesty on the dam side, and Mr. Prospector through Seeking the Gold on the sire side.  Why then was he so unsound?  And if he had gone to stud, could breeding to the right dams prevented his unsoundness from being passed on to his offspring?  

Secondly, what lines are  considered good for breeding soundness, and which ones breed unsoundness?  

I am glad Notional made it to stud, he is a gorgeous looking horse, but didn't he have unsoundness issues?  I hope my questions are not considered politically incorrect.

• Scot's reply:  Whew!  Tough subject.  I'm afraid I don't have a great answer for you.  Soundness issues CAN be inherited and certain bloodlines are notorious; on the other hand, unsound foals are frequently born from two sound parents (and vice versa).  As for your specific question about sound and unsound lines -- ask five horsemen and you'll receive five completely different responses! I appreciate the trainers/owners who keep their runners at the track through multiple seasons, because it gives a much better indication of a line's true soundness when you can see the horses mature ... a horse with 50 starts means you probably don't need to look at his pedigree to see if he's sound!

I have a mare that crosses well with Danzig line stallions and I was back and forth between 2 Hard Spun and Big Brown.

 I settled on Hard Spun just because I loved his heart. Racing at distances that were beyond optimim for his breeding he ran his eyeballs out every race.

 How do you compare these 2 sons of Danzig?

• Scot's reply:  Great question, and I hope to hear several opinions.  My thoughts:  first and foremost, you want to make sure the stallion matches your mare CONFORMATIONALLY.  While Hard Spun and Big Brown share the Danzig sire line, they're significantly different physical types.  I'm guessing that Hard Spun can match well with solid mares whether they're rangy or refined, and Big Brown probably needs stout mares with legs of steel.

Hi all , Would someone tell me what would be a good stallion to breed too for my mare.. Her name is bet on track she is a big very correct mare.. thanks

Any thoughts on Spring at Last? I have an Eastern Echo mare whose dam is by Cherokee Colony.

I admit, I am a novice and am intrigued by the potential linebreeding through brothers His Majesty(4X5) & Grustark(5X5)cross. What is your opinion regarding such a cross

LOU,

WITHOUT KNOWING HOW YOUR MARE IS BRED, WHAT SHE LOOKS LIKE, WHERE YOU'RE LOCATED, YOUR BUDGET, ETC., THERE IS A 90% CHANCE THAT SHE'LL BE A GOOD FIT FOR EITHER LEWIS MICHAEL OR MIZZEN MAST.

MERRY CHRISTMAS!

I am replying to Jim's comments regarding Hard Spun and Big Brown.  I agree with Scot when it comes to conformationally breeding your mare to match with Hard Spun.  I feel like the biggest difference in the 2 horses is the stud fee.  You have an inflated fee in Big Brown that doesn't make much sense because of his lack of soundness bred in through the Boundary line.  Hard Spun was a warrior of a racehorse, he could carry his speed for 1 1/4 mile as well as big quick enough to win races wire to wire at 7/8ths.  If I were standing Big Brown I would be placing him in that 35-50K range to make him more comparable to Hard Spun as far as stud fee goes.  At this point with economic turmoil being what it is, Hard Spun is one of the biggest steals in an unproven horse we've seen in quite sometime!

Lou...how about Mutakddim? Great race horse sire! And inbreeds to a really nice mare Traffic Court through Traffic Judge and Hasty Court.

As this year comes to an end I still am contemplating where to breed my mare. She is a multiple stakes winner of just under $300k. She has had 2 foals, none of racing age. First foal by Indy King and her second a colt by Macho Uno. I would like to send her to a KY sire priced under $15k.Her sire is Ponche her dam's sire is NonParrel by Hoist the Flag. Any ideas?????

• Scot's reply:  Hi Carole.  If this is the mare I'm thinking of, her first foal is actually by Milwaukee Brew -- is that right?  If so, your girl raced 30 times across five years, and was at her best at age 2 (6: 4-1-1 for $110,080, including a stakes win and a good stakes place effort).  Her record shows she could extend her range (AOC win at 9 furlongs) but really sizzled at 7 furlongs.  Sounds like the Two Punch (sire of Ponche)  influence showing through!  ... I don't really "recommend" matings on this blog, I just discuss what looks interesting to me.  With that in mind... while Mr. Prospector in general hasn't done much better than average with broodmares from the Ack Ack line, I know that Two Punch has several $250,000+ winners from the cross.  Include (SRO) is just a bit above your price goal and gives you doubled influences of Hoist the Flag and Nijinsky II -- and Include balances your mare's speed and precocity with a dose of stamina and maturity.  Might be a nice cross if the two match up in other regards.

I think the young stud to watch is  Sharp Humor. Speed,and Heart with the Forty Niner/ Mr P on top. His last two races before the Derby were great and he was the closest to beating Barbaro than anyone has ever come. There was no backing down with that colt. He seemed to love to fight it out. Distorted Humor hasn't had a chance to show he is a sire of sires yet, but I can't see why not. Your thoughts?

• Scot's reply:  Since Sharp Humor entered stud in 2007, we'll get a good idea of what his foals look like in 2009 (first yearlings).  The market seemed to like his 2008 weanlings, though -- of the 23 offered, 12 sold for an average $49,917 (median $27,500) against a $12,500 stud fee in 2007.

Scot, In the last couple of years have you seen a influx in stallions that share the same breeding patterns but show tremndiously different race records/racing preferences/talent? I'm thinking of mating patterens we dont see very often, not just Storm Cat over Mr. P.

Thanks, Crystal

• Scot's reply:  Just taking a quick look at some of the full brothers standing today -- Dehere / Defrere, Giant's Causeway / Freud / Roar of the Tiger, Unbridled's Song / Spanish Steps, Kingmambo / Kitalpha, to name a few -- we see huge differences in aptitude and class.  Any time you breed horses, you're entering a genetic lottery... breeding two great horses usually means the gene pool is deeper, but it's always possible to get average foals from extraodinary parents.  (Happily, the reverse is also true.)  ... All that said, it's pretty obvious that the Thoroughbred breed is becoming more homozygous for sprint/speed, to the detriment of route/stamina -- and most of the successful sibling brothers these days fit into the 6-9 furlong range, albeit at differing classes.

Happy New Year.  I have a question regarding the proper application of the Rasmussen factor.  I am new at this and have a Stormy Atlantic filly named Patsy's Storm - recently off the track and headed to the breeding shed.  I have looked at the Holy Bull line through both Holy Bull and Flashy Bull.  I liked the physical on Flashy Bull and maybe the commercial ability of him as well.  It is an A truenicks and shows a 5X5 to Aspidstra (the dam of Dr. Fager) through 2 different individuals - Highbinder on the dams side and Ta Wee on the sire's side.  Would this be a proper characterization of the Rasmussen factor? What do you think of this potential mating and would you consider Flashy Bull over his sire, Holy Bull given that their stud fees are fairly close?

• Scot's reply:  The cross you're discussing is a variation of one that I like a whole lot -- Holy Bull on the top side with Aspidistra on the bottom side of the pedigree.  Going through Highbinder is a much less common path than through Aspidistra's daughters or through the stallions Dr. Fager and Unbridled.  Your cross of Holy Bull (and sons) over Patsy's Storm does indeed give you an RF to Aspidistra, and in fact introduces the closely-related Highbinder (Rough'n Tumble-Aspidistra) with Great Above (Holy Bull's sire, who is by a son of Rough'n Tumbe out of Aspidistra's champion daughter Ta Wee).  There are several ways to determine Rasmussen Factor, and some breeders insist on a particular pattern (such as matching the sire's and dam's female families).  Read more about the RF by Googling "Rasmussen Factor" -- or find a copy of the book Inbreeding to Superior Females by Rommy Faversham and Leon Rasmussen.  Fascinating study!