The Flip Side of the Bold Ruler / Synthetic Tracks Study

Valid conclusions aren't possible unless research methods are meaningful. 

The other day, I discussed Bold Ruler bloodlines in hot synthetic sires.  It was clear that Bold Ruler and his fellow Nasrullah sire Nashua were present in a disproportionately high percentage of top all-weather sires.

The question is, are Nasrullah bloodlines also present in sires whose progeny are faring poorly on synthetics?

I started out with the same group of stallions (those with 100 or more progeny starts on all-weather track surfaces).  For the main study, I had chosen sires with 40% or better in-the-money figures; this time, I looked at sires whose progeny finished in the money less than 30% of the time on synthetic tracks, and came up with 62 stallions. 

When I was looking for sires that outperformed on synthetics, I wanted their in-the-money percentage to be at least 2.5% higher on all-weather tracks than on all other tracks; for stallions that seem to underperform on synthetics, the differential was more evident.  In fact, 61 out of the 62 stallions on my list had at least a 2.5% underperformance difference. 

I chose stallions whose progeny performance on synthetics was at least 12.5% worse (based on in-the-money ratios) than their same performance on all tracks.  The list came to 14 stallions.  Here they are in alpha order:

    • Alydeed
    • Deputy Minister
    • Ide
    • Memo (CHI)
    • Mercer Mill
    • Mt. Livermore
    • Olympio
    • Quiet American
    • Theatrical (IRE)
    • Two Punch
    • Wagon Limit
    • War Deputy
    • Whywhywhy
    • Yonaguska

Bold Ruler appeared in 18 of 28 (64.3%) of the top synthetic sires but only 3 (Mercer Mill, Wagon Limit, and Whywhywhy) of the bottom 14 sires (21.4%) -- effectively, Bold Ruler bloodlines are 300% more likely to be in top all-weather stallions than in poorer-performing studs.  That's a huge difference.  Interestingly, all three of the poor-performing Bold Ruler-influenced stallions on this list are from Mr. Prospector tail-male lines.  And none contain lines of Relaunch or the larger In Reality bloodlines.

Nashua's numbers weren't as clear-cut:  he was present in 14 of 28 (50%) of the top synthetic sires in our study, and in 7 of 14 (also 50%) of the studs in today's list.  Basically a wash.

Nasrullah's influence on top all-weather sires (26 of 28 for 92.9%) is comparable to that of his numbers with lesser synthetic producers (12 of 14 for 85.7%) and the sample size is small enough to disregard what appears to be a slight benefit of his bloodlines for synthetic success.  It would appear that the benefit comes very specifically with Bold Ruler lines.

The sire whose overall progeny in-the-money percentage is most negatively affected by synthetics is Olympio, with a 19% differential.  Olympio has crosses of neither Bold Ruler nor Nashua, but does have Nasrullah as his third sire in tail-male.

(I should point out here that I'm not intentionally knocking any of the stallions discussed today.  Many are top-notch sires whose progeny have wowed the racing world on dirt and turf!)

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