Valid conclusions aren't possible unless research methods are meaningful.
The other day, I discussed Bold Ruler bloodlines in hot synthetic sires. It was clear that Bold Ruler and his fellow Nasrullah sire Nashua were present in a disproportionately high percentage of top all-weather sires.
The question is, are Nasrullah bloodlines also present in sires whose progeny are faring poorly on synthetics?
I started out with the same group of stallions (those with 100 or more progeny starts on all-weather track surfaces). For the main study, I had chosen sires with 40% or better in-the-money figures; this time, I looked at sires whose progeny finished in the money less than 30% of the time on synthetic tracks, and came up with 62 stallions.
When I was looking for sires that outperformed on synthetics, I wanted their in-the-money percentage to be at least 2.5% higher on all-weather tracks than on all other tracks; for stallions that seem to underperform on synthetics, the differential was more evident. In fact, 61 out of the 62 stallions on my list had at least a 2.5% underperformance difference.
I chose stallions whose progeny performance on synthetics was at least 12.5% worse (based on in-the-money ratios) than their same performance on all tracks. The list came to 14 stallions. Here they are in alpha order:
- Alydeed
- Deputy Minister
- Ide
- Memo (CHI)
- Mercer Mill
- Mt. Livermore
- Olympio
- Quiet American
- Theatrical (IRE)
- Two Punch
- Wagon Limit
- War Deputy
- Whywhywhy
- Yonaguska
Bold Ruler appeared in 18 of 28 (64.3%) of the top synthetic sires but only 3 (Mercer Mill, Wagon Limit, and Whywhywhy) of the bottom 14 sires (21.4%) -- effectively, Bold Ruler bloodlines are 300% more likely to be in top all-weather stallions than in poorer-performing studs. That's a huge difference. Interestingly, all three of the poor-performing Bold Ruler-influenced stallions on this list are from Mr. Prospector tail-male lines. And none contain lines of Relaunch or the larger In Reality bloodlines.
Nashua's numbers weren't as clear-cut: he was present in 14 of 28 (50%) of the top synthetic sires in our study, and in 7 of 14 (also 50%) of the studs in today's list. Basically a wash.
Nasrullah's influence on top all-weather sires (26 of 28 for 92.9%) is comparable to that of his numbers with lesser synthetic producers (12 of 14 for 85.7%) and the sample size is small enough to disregard what appears to be a slight benefit of his bloodlines for synthetic success. It would appear that the benefit comes very specifically with Bold Ruler lines.
The sire whose overall progeny in-the-money percentage is most negatively affected by synthetics is Olympio, with a 19% differential. Olympio has crosses of neither Bold Ruler nor Nashua, but does have Nasrullah as his third sire in tail-male.
(I should point out here that I'm not intentionally knocking any of the stallions discussed today. Many are top-notch sires whose progeny have wowed the racing world on dirt and turf!)
