Dosage to me does not mean a whole lot.  I pay more attention to the Center of Distribution #{C.D}.  Dosage is subjective at best.  An example would be General Quarters.  How does he have a dosage of 2.69 with horses like Sky Mesa, Pulpit, Storm Cat, Unbridleds Song and Mr Prospector in his close pedigree.  When Pioneerof The Nile comes in at 3.89 with Belmont winner Empire Maker, Derby winner Unbridled, Lord At War, General, Con Brio, El Gran Senor, and In Reality in his pedigree.  Pioneer has a distance pedigree from the word go and General Quarters does not.  You need to look at what other horses with the same sire are doing and formulate your opinions then.  In 25 years, they will be giving Storm Cat the "CS" tag {classic/stout} when he is nothing but brillant - intermediate {B/I}.  The way the pedigree markers are distributed {C.D.} goes farther in saying how long a particular horse will run.  That together with their physical make up says it all.  Which is why I was not on the Quality Road band wagon.  He is built like a sprinter and was very muscle bound.  His physical makeup would have made that last 1/8 mile very tough.  I Want Revenge is stamina galore and the same can be said for Friesan Fire.

    Thank God for  AP Indy he seems to be the best source of stamina around these days .Dynaformer also ! I'm just afraid that one of these days the Triple Crown races will be shortened because of the lack of stamina and the focus on speed!!!

    I'm sorry Robert I do not agree! GQ does have a distance pedigee ! But I do agree that Storm Cat should be placed in the B/I category.

After becoming familiar with Conduit Mare Profiles and how very well they address a horse's true likely aptitudes, Dosage is extinct to me as a pedigree assessing tool.  Found them a couple yeras ago and Dosage cannot compare.

• Scot's reply:  As much as Dosage is poorly understood, I think the Conduit Mare system is even LESS comprehended by the average pedigree fan.  It's a great topic for a future post -- LGB, I hope you'll check back and comment when that post comes up!

Fresian Fire is one awesome speciman. Its nice to see all the top fillies are running in the Oaks the day before, its where they belong.

O.K., I want a horse to win the Triple Crown and there's no sense in rooting for a horse to win the Derby if he can't do the whole thing. So I looked up the numbers for the past 3 TC winners and their numbers were: Secretariat- 3.00 & 0.90; Seattle Slew - 2.14, 0.68 & Affirmed - 2.08, 0.55. Just for comparison: War Admiral - 0.45, -0.52; Gallant Fox - 0.40, -0.57. On the list for this year's Derby, West Side Bernie has the best numbers, he has Secretariat all over his pedigree and Affirmed & Damascus. So on paper, he looks good, but... Regal Ransom would be next. I like him. I know everyone favors Desert Party over him, but I liked what I saw in his last race and he's been working out well here. The next two would be Mr. Hot Stuff and Chocolate Candy. I like Mr. Hot Stuff, but that's more of an emotional thing, I just like the horse, he's a Tiznow and he's gorgeous. Good thing I don't bet. LOL! This year's group is too good to single one out.

When is the last time the KD has played out like a mile-and-a-quarter race? The jockeys ride as if it were a mile-and-an-eighth anyway. That last eight just determines how much the margin of victory is.

   I think that down the road ,We'll see the dosage numbers come up maybe like  to 5.00 and a  CD of 1.75 or maybe 2.00 ? The one horse in the Derby I do not like from a pedigree standpoint would be Musket Man ,The Fortunate Prospect on the dams side is the problem but, alot of horses do outrun their pedigrees...

I think within 25 years there will have been a shift away from the "pretty pony" and back to where it belongs. If not it won't really matter, by then we won't have many left in training by May of their three year old year.

  Ihave a very interesting question Iknow it is off the subject but, I always wondered If Ruffian would have survived or not been injured at all ( I WISH !!! ) Who would have been the best stallion at the time to breed her to ??? Has this subject come up before ?????

Hmm, all interesting theories.

I have two 2yos that are about to start B&T. They are by a sire who was the only horse (Anziyan Royalty) to beat Lava Man twice. They read on paper like they should be middle-Sprinters...until you look at the sire's results: 1 1/16 was his sweet spot. Dams were also from Classic running style horses. Does this mean that their DI/CD (2.11/0.50 and 2.11/0.57) will hold true? Time will tell.

Where will things go this year? I'm solid for F.Fire and C.Candy. I believe they will be on the board for paying tickets. Beyond that, I really can't say.

As for the future? I like the TBs that are showing Quarterhorse legs in their structure -- guess I'm more about conformation than numbers. I really don't want a tiny ankle or zero-cannons for a distance horse. If we are going to run them long, breed them for long. Don't breed them for speed (light frames) or you will end up with more Unbridled Song-type-peds showing how fragile they are.

  In reference to my last comment I always thought that Damascus or Northern Dancer would have been great for Ruffian !

I think it's important to remember that Dosage is a tool - one of many - and that preparation of the racehorse is of prime importance. If a horse is properly conditioned to get a distance of ground from the time their training starts, it is more likely that they will be more likely to be there at the finish than those hurried to prevail at shorter distances no matter what their pedigree says.

Pedigree Shelly:  General Quarters has a pedigree for 1 1/8 miles.  Maybe I should clarify....He is not a Triple Crown horse.  I agree he can probably go 1 1/4 miles, but I would bet my next paycheck he will never win going 1 1/2 miles in Grade 1 company, and thats what he will have to do in 5 weeks.  His physical makeup will not allow him to go 1 1/2 miles.  The same can be said about Quality Road.  He is very muscle bound and nothing about him says "distance".  That being said.....it would be great for racing if the "one-horse" stable won.  But what racing needs is stamina, and stallions like Sky Mesa, Pulpit, Unbridleds Song, and Storm Cat do nothing to add that stamina to the Breed.  If you notice, the Phipps family has only used Storm Cat sparingly, and when they did breed to him, they used stout mares.  My Flag could run all day, but even she could not add distance to Storm Cat.  Stallions who cannot go a distance should not be expected to sire horses who can.  Colts like Advice and Musket Man are exceptions to the rule.  But lets see them go 1 1/4 miles after the first saturday in May.

dosage--under 4.0 made me a lot of money--results is the word

    Ok Robert I never implied that GQ had the pedigree to win the Triple Crown !! I meant he did have the pedigree to get a mile and a quarter!! If you dont like Unbridled's Song for Stamina then why do you like POTN he is from the Unbridled line ! By the way Storm cat did sire Tabasco Cat who did win the Belmont and Cat Thief who won the BC Classic !!

tn

Speaking of stamina --- Everyone consistently ignores BIRDSTONE, Belmont Stakes winner and the only sire with 2 derby entrants.  Watchout for the lightly raced Summer Bird from off the pace, and the speed oriented Mine That Bird (coming in from the high altitude training in El Paso) riding the rail with Calvin 'Borail'---Could be a most interesting Derby.....

Wow, I mention one insight on how the Kentucky Derby plays out like a mile-and-an-eighth race and next thing you know Bloodhorse has a article written up on who will hit the eight pole first. I feel validated. That said, General Quarters will win the Kentucky Derby. Don't worry I'm a professional. :)

• Scot's reply:  Heh heh heh -- great minds think alike I guess!

For one, I am liking Friesian Fire if the track is soupy. He already showed he can run a good race in a lake!

I think there is some relevance to dosage, and I like dosage on the higher side of two, i.e. 2.75 on up to 3.00. I feel that tactical speed, which can be held in reserve, gives a horse a lot more options and control over pace.

But don't mind me. Even though I have grown up around horses, I have never actually been to a track, but have watched a good number of horse races over my lifetime. I'm 56 years old. My late husband, on the other hand, taught himself handicapping so well that he put himself through college betting on the ponies. When tuition was due, he went to Aksarben.

It certainly is tough to generalize. On one hand I cashed a nice exacta when Strike the Gold won the Derby for Zito -- with a higher dosage than is "required" to win the Derby. However I never expected the likes of Funny Cide (by Distorted Humor) nor Smarty Jones (Elusive Quality) to take the roses. I guess I'd lean towards Robert's comment. POTN (by Empire Maker) and Freisan Fire (A.P. Indy) should have no trouble getting 1 1/4 miles. Plus, either one should move up nicely on muddy tracks.

Pedigree Shelly:  I like Pioneer because his sire won over a 1 1/2 and Empire Maker was toying with fiels at 1 1/8 miles.  Granted he ran 2nd to Funny Cide, but was compromised by a bruised foot.  Empire Maker comes from a family of stamina and looked the part.  Unbridleds Song....while bred like a distance horse, does not through stamina with enough consistancy to be labled a source of it.  Yes, Storm Cat sired Tabasco and Cat Thief.  Cat Thief was from a stout line and had Pat Day.  Enough there to get 1 1/4 miles.  But he never won again at a distance.  Tabasco Cat did not beat anything in his Belmont.  Keep in mind he too was from a stamina line.  Sauce Boat is not noted for stamina, but his line is.  The physical makeup of the Storm Cat line does not allow them to be distance horses.  Yes he has Giants Causeway and a few others, but when you are bred to the best mares in the breed and you have over 1500 foals and 20 of them can go 1 1/4 miles......not eough to be labled stamina.  If you line up the Empire Makers {E.M.} and the Unbridled Songs, more of the E.M.'s will go a distance.  The Unbridled Songs {U.S.} will mature earlier and have less stamina.  I know I am hard on these stallions, but if we are not, we don't do the breed any good.  I would love to see some stout German Blood be brought over and mixed with our lines.  I want another Triple Crown winner, but with 20 horses in the Derby every year, I am starting to get on board with the "Freak" theory that our next winner will be from outer space.  Thanks for the debate.  Good luck in the Derby :)

   Robert ,You made some excellent points ! Especially about importing some stamina from European bloodlines .The Unbridled's Song's do seem to have alot of soundness problems ! Empire Maker is an excellent young sire who does add stamina . Istill like IRW for the derby and GQ is a good long shot bet ! Iwish you well on Derby Day :

We do have sturdy here in the U.S., but they're not the 'it' horses of the season. Cetewayo is one - he was winning graded stakes until he was 8. Einstein should be when he retires. And I think the Tiznow's seem pretty sturdy. Look at what Well Armed has accomplished after breaking a hip. If I were breeding, I think I'd look for a horse that raced at least until the end of their 4th year and check with their relatives to see what they're doing.

Well, Ladyclever I bet you feel good!  No one I know even looked at MTB.

Point proven with 'little' BIRDSTONE -- Derby and Oaks --He's the next NORTHERN DANCER when it comes to sires. When will the breeders learn that 'bigger' is not better when it comes to race horses? --Size equates to unsoundness.  And so far as dosage -- look at what the sire and his siblings have done-- and at what distance-- and forget someone's 'exercise' with numbers. If their numbers'worked', they would own all the best horses and win all the money ---Think about it.....

So much for the dosage beliefs...AGAIN !!!

Mine That Bird at 5.40 and 1.19.   5.40 is way above the 4.00 max.

I can't remember exactly who, but wasn't there another Derby Winner above the 4.00 max also???   Maybe Monarchos ???

I'm so happy because  at my small breeding farm (8 broodmares) I have PENTHOUSE PARTY (USA) By Red Ransom out of Risque Attache. My mare and Mine That Bird has the same female line. Mine That Bird through Mining My Own - Aspenelle - Little To Do - Tribal To Do - Marge's Request and Cedquest. penthouse Party through Risque attache - Ambassador Of Luck - Detente - Cedquest.

But for all small breeders victories as this of Mine That Bird are our fountain of drems

Last week I said that future Derby winners would have a higher Dosage Index than in the past. It happened this year -- but here's why Mine That Bird's win does NOT add value to my prediction.

Congtratulations to Mine That Bird, his jockey, and his trainer. Oops, his dosage is high. However, I observe the full brother,sister act, Swaps, Track Medal. Oops, Norther Dancer shows there, as well as mr. P. Look to the engine room and the individual. The brave "little" horse sort of outran his expensive competitors and his fictitious numerical evaluation