Well, they also said he wouldn't win the Derby too-again the experts show their wisdom-if that's what you want to call it. And predicting the weather to boot on Preakness Day.  MTB and his connections remind some of us (small operations) why we stay in this sport.  It's a dream and for them it came true.

You left out one thing: what if the track is muddy on Preakness day? The Bird just loves the mud. And, being a stayer, he has the stamina to accelerate in it while others are floundering.

If the track is dry and fast, he may be beaten by a newcomer to the Triple Crown trail. But if it's muddy, watch out for a flying Bird at the finish line.

but hes still one hell of a story...LONG LIVE THE KING!!!...

It is a bit premature to say he won't win the Preakness. Refresh my memory-who was your KD pick?

• Scot's reply:  *grin*  My guy was, uh, second to last.  I believe Friesan Fire was the best horse in the race but "anything can happen in the Derby" and I was thrilled to see Mine That Bird's amazing surge at the end -- the stuff that Thoroughbred dreams are made of. 

Canonero II wasn't given much chance in the Preakness, either.  He was a more unlikely Kentucky Derby winner than Mine That Bird.  After coming from far back to win the Kentucky Derby, he went to the front in the Preakness, put away Calumet's Eastern Fleet,and won.

have FAITH....in Calvin Borel.....and in bloodline of Mine That Bird....just because he is a gelding.....sure Curlin....did away with Calvin...heck who knows? right........

• Scot's reply:  The connection is tenuous at best, but I've always rooted for Calvin Borel because he jockeyed my riding horse Dumbledore -- an off-the-track gelding formerly known as Three Block Fox -- in a couple of races back in the day.

Well the way I see it no one thought he would win the Derby either, otherwise his odds would have been way lower.

I too believe on paper he doesn't look as though he should win the Preakness, but it is a horse race and no one knows until they break from the gates.

I don't know, he's shown in his races he can be up front in 22/change, 1/2 in 46/change, or lay back and come home the last half of a 1 1/4 race in 47 and the last quarter in 23:1,,,,looks pretty talented to me.

I agree - the Preakness will be the hard one for this horse to get. Of course, I'm not going to say he won't get it. I think most of said he won't get it with respect to the KY Derby. Like Zito said - there's a reason they run the race.

I believe that Mine That Bird will indeed win the Preakness and take the Belmont by storm, because he is bred for the distance. Look at who his great grandsire is(Unbridled) who won the Derby in 1990. Then you look at his son, Grindstone (winner of the 1996 Derby). Then here comes Birdstone who took the world by storm when he simply crushed the hopes and dreams of Smarty Jones winning the coveted Triple Crown in 2004 by having 36-1 or higher odds on him that day. I still to this day was rooting for Smarty and wish he had won the Triple Crown but what are you going to do that's racing. But I do believe this gelded son of Birdstone will definitely, without a doubt in my mind go the distance.

I hope he goes in there as the favorite. On a fast track he's toast. An amazing turn of events led to his victory in the Derby, we'll see if lightning strikes twice. I'm betting against it.

It's easy to be a monday morning quarter back. Honestly the day's of the Iron Horse such as Noble Dancer who won 10 grade 1/2's as a 6/7 year old are long gone. Do a Woody. Skip the preakness, win the Belmont!!!!

I actually think he has a better shot in the Preakness than the Belmont. There is a lot of speed going to Pimlico and he should get the hot pace, which he needs with his come from the clouds style. There has always been this myth that the Preakness and Pimlico favors speed and speed horses and the Belmont favors closers. The opposite is true. It is extremely difficult to come from far back in the Belmont because the pace is so slow most years. In recent memory only Birdstone, Victory Gallop and Jazil came from the clouds to win the race. All the other winners were on the lead, near the lead, or in relatively close contact. One interesting fact is: there have been more gate to wire winners of the Belmont than the Preakness. (check it out!) It's the pace that makes the race, not the distance.

The last horse to wire the Preakness field was Louis Quatorze in 1996. Since then the Preakness has been won by 7 horses who came from well off the pace and 5 horse who stalked the pace. In that same period of time the Belmont has been won by 2 horses who went wire to wire and only 3 horses we can really categorize as deep closers.

The truth is neither race favors his deep closing style. And if we are talking Triple Crown - 3 of the last 4 winners of the Triple were in front at every call in the Belmont (Affirmed, Slew and Citation) and if Secretariat had broken alertly he would have wired that field. He was only behind briefly however.

Well, I beg to differ. The first mistake I made with this horse was not checking his 2 year old record. Here's what he won:

first stakes race - 7.5 furlong, second one - 7 furlong, third one - 1 1/16 miles. I think he's shown he can win at the Preakness distance. His Derby form was different than what he had been doing, the trainer asked Calvin to hold him back and then let him close. So I'm pulling for him to be the most unlikely TC winner since Assault.

Borel knows Churchill like the back of his hand, he had a lot of edge on most of the riders that day.

MTB won the Derby closing strong with six lengths. Meaning he can get away with having five or so less lengths of ground to run.

However, if he continues to close, though he is supposedly training to be more speed ready, he will be challenged in the Preakness. A shorter distance with fresh speed not present in the Derby will be challenging. I agree with Steve on this one. But then again, we thought someone else would win the Derby.

Quote: "There'll be fresh horses.  There'll be Pimlico specialists."

Since 1983 the only horses to skip the Derby and win the Preakness are Deputed Testamony, Red Bullet and Bernardini, so the fresh horse angle has never been good to use. And the Pimlico specialist haven't done that much better either. Only Aloma's Ruler in 1982 and Deputed Testamony in 1983 have won recently. It's been 26 years. (Magic Weisner ran a good second). There are so many myths surrounding racing and the Triple Crown it's unbelievable. I remember the long held belief that the turns at Pimlico are sharper and more banked than the ones at Churchill. A recent study showed the CD turns were actually sharper.

Looks as though many have not recognized the significance of Borel's Derby ride - Dossage was established ONLY for the first Saturday in May, not the Travers in August or anyother race - Yet, so many bantered about dossage in many other times of the year - "Oh, Can Holy Bull get the distance in the Travers?" Dossage mattered due to the stamina required in a colt running in a huge field, carrying more weight than he ever had before, and having to endure the many duels, both on the front end and internally, with all of the bumping and bouncing and grinding.  Calvin took MTB back and made one long gallop - He was never in any duel which could have zapped him of energy - Similar ride on Street Sense.  MTB has survived duels in other races, but, Calvin used the best tactic available to him. While other colts became worn out from their various duels, MTB was kept as fresh as possible.  Now, with the shorter field of the Preakness, the tighter turns, Calvin may not be able to run that type of race.  The rail at Pimlico has a tremendous advantage, but, likely to see more legtimate speed on the rail.  Doubt if this will become the great race of Silver Charm, Free House and the Captain fighting tooth and nail, with a newcomer introducing himself, but, glad to see many of you, finally, realizing that MTB was well bred and, perhaps, not a One Hit Wonder.

Excuse me, but I don't think anyone knows what the heck is going to happen at the Preakness.  Surely, no tout knew what they were doing at the Derby.  No speed ? Sure.  4 or 5 contenders ?  Sure.  Simply not a graded type animal ? Sure.  Dunkirk off of 3 starts ?  Sure.  From the Wizard to Jeff to whoever else, they all had it wrong.  Some nitwit even said there was something special in the feedtub!  Put it where it is.  This was a HORRIBLE group of animals and MTB blossomed at CD while being ignored by everyone.  Personally, I he wins the damn triple crown.  The story is our own for sure.  Just like America itself, full of bumps and bruises. But still beautiful.  Go MTB!

UNFORTUNATELY, I HAVE TO AGREE.  ALTHOUGH I LOVE THE STORY, ESPECIALLY ABOUT A GELDING WINNING IT, WHEN MOST WANT A COLT TO EVENTUALLY STUD, EVEN IF IT IS FOR

$1000.00 DOLLARS, MAKE MONEY FOR A WHILE THEN GET RID OF HIM.

 BUT HIS PEDIGREE SUGGESTS DISTANCE, WITH SMART STRIKE THE SIRE OF CURLIN, AND SQUARE EDDIE, AND YES PAPA CLEM, BUT I DO BELIEVE HIS SPEED TO BE TRUE.  ALSO ON THE BOTTOM SIDE IS VICE REGENT, AND NORTHERN DANCER SON.  EVEN THOUGH A HORSE IN THE PEDIGREE WINS A RACE DOES NOT MEAN IT WILL BE PASSED DOWN.  DO NOT FORGET IT IS ONLY TWO WEEKS TIL THE PREAKNESS. SURE HE SEEMS FINE, BUT THEN TO RACE AGAIN WITH THE SAME KICK AS THE DERBY?  I JUST CANNOT BELIEVE IT. MY DERBY PICK WAS CHOCOLATE CANDY, SO I HAVE NO BETTER LUCK OR INSIGHT WITH THE RACING GODS.

  I ALSO BELIEVE HE WILL NOT WIN THE BELMONT EITHER.  I HAVE NO QUALMS WITH THE DISTANCES OR DAYS BETWEEN TRIPLE CROWN RACES, BUT I WILL BE TOO MUCH FOR MINE THAT BIRD.

 SHAME THOUGH.

I'm not going to hail Mine That Bird as the next great thoroughbred star, but if he's 6-1 in the Preakness, you can be sure I'll take a shot with him.  Just go and look at the prospective field that was posted yesterday, including:

Mr. Fantasy

Papa Clem

Take the Points

Join in the Dance

Big Drama

Then add stretch-out sprinter Hull into the equation and you're certainly going to have a hotter pace than the :47 half we saw in the Derby.  At this early stage, the Preakness is setting up very well for a deep closer.  Actually, contrary to popular belief, Iktamal (above) correctly points out that the Preakness often sets up for a closer.

Yes, I know Pioneerof the Nile and Musket Man will be back as well, but I'd argue that both of those two had far more stressful races in the Derby than the winner.

Mine That Bird will not win the Preakness.  He won the Derby because he was the only one who relished the gooey, sticky track.  Each off track is different.  Some horses handle an off track at CD different than they do, say at FG (eg. Four Gifts).  So, even if there is an off track at Pimlico on Preakness Day, Mine That Bird will not win.  The winner of the Preakness will be Hull.

I "believe" that Mine that Bird will win the TC.  The racing industry needs a wake up call.  #8, pink silks at the Derby?  Ahhhh wasn't there a horse there once like that?  Barbro :)  That is right.  The nation needs to "WAKE UP".  Mine that Bird I belive will win the TC.  The Preakness is the only race that is the question mark.  BUT remember we have Calvin.  Need I say more?  Time will tell.  I want him to win it.  

If Big Drama enters the starting gates at Pimlico "its Katie bar the door".  Try to beat him if you can and enjoy (never mind "That Bird").  

IT WILL BE HARD..BUT WITH THAT LATE KICK ANY THING IS POSSIBLE, THE PROBLEM I SEE IS TIMING THAT LATE KICK. ON STREET SENSE IT WAS TO EARLY...MINE THAT BIRD LOOKS TO BE A GRITTY TOUGH HORSE..THE PREAKNESS WILL SHOW THIS...THE TEST OF CHAMPIONS..IS AN ENTIRE DIFFERENT QUESTION..MANY WERE BRED TO GO THE DISTANCE BUT TELL ME HOW MANY HAVE WON...THOUGH AFTER SEEING THE DERBY, IT WOULDN'T SURPRISE ME IF HE ENDED UP BEING OUR NEXT TRIPLE CROWN WINNER!!!

Why don't you quit your job and do us all a favor. 

• Scot's reply:  Play nice or go stand in the corner!

EVERY horse in the Derby couldn't handle the surface but MTB? Don't think so.

So he's going to be facing a bunch of horses he just beat in the Derby and a bunch of newcomers who weren't good enough to run in the Derby? I think MTB had a better chance in the Preakness because the field will come up light.

In the Belmont, he's going to face the quality Derby horses that will have 5 weeks off and other horses whose connections feel they are bred for the distance.

The best angle to play in the Preakness is the Derby winner! Since 1997, Derby winners have won 7 out of 12.

Nicanor will stop  him cold in the Belmont if Bird wins the Preakness.

Phantom what are you smoking???  Nicanor - Please.   Let him break his maiden first.

Pesonally i don't think MTB will win. The pace that was set on a regular track that was fast would've been slow, but considering the track was so gooey and sticky, the fractions were probably pretty fast. MTB got to sit like twenty lenghts off that 47 half and meaning he probably went his own half in like 51 seconds. That on any track is pedestrian. Also notice since the horse was in last he could run on the rail as long as he liked taking a short rout the whole way around. This horse got to run extra slow, and thanks to Calvin also got the very shortest trip possible. I'm not surprised he closed so well, he had a ground saving trip on the rail which was the best place to be, while plodding along at his own easy going pace. This gave him enough energy to make a prolonged run shooting him past those like MM, POTN, and PC, who had tougher wider trips, and were tire horses. When the Preakness comes and these horses are less hindered, MTB won't be the one to look like he's flying. One of the others will be flying past him.

Pimlico does have a speedfavoring track. It tends to be a 'heavy' track though, and the speed horses tend to falter. the horses that lay off the lead tend to take over and easily win. Closers are definately not suited for this track..BUT MTB seems to be able to run close to the pace or off. If Calvin can get him on the rail and settled (like the Derby)on autopilot (like i like to call it) and let the speed horses have a speed duel. they'll wear out, but it depends when the dual happens and where the pressure begins within the 1 1/6 mile race.

        From a pedigree standpoint i can see How MTB got the Derby distance but ,The Preakness is a whole new ball game ! MTB is well suited for the Belmont ! His sire won the Belmont in a heartbreaker over Smarty Jones His dam's sire Smart Strike is the sire of

Curlin <who we all know could get a distance ! For some reason I see MTB as a "ONE HIT WONDER " Icould be proven wrong ! I know alot of people are down on the Dosage right now ,but I still think it is an informative part of pedigree analysis ! Scot, by the way I'd love to have a career in the breeding aspect of Thoroughbreds ! I've been reading the Blood Horse since I was 13yrs old , pedigrees just stick in my head and I could really use your help on how to get started!!!!

the derby was full of horses with a dozen excuses n after the excuses grew to millions so the cheap unknown horse won with the greatest local jockey there is this decade. the rich got killed because they always bet the top horses  

The only way to cash quality tickets in horse racing is to bet tomorrows speed score not yesterdays. At this age, horses get better fast and sudden. When a long shot win, a handicapper goes back and asks the question, "What Happened?" In hindsight, this horse would have been difficult to pick but there are three very powerful angles that came together. So first check the time and pace to see if anything weird went on. Nope. Time is very legitimate, pace was professional but not blazing.(Sunday Silence derby went a mile in the same time but finished with a 2:05) So calling all of the horses garbage is just way of the mark. Scott holding onto the "I still think FF is the best horse in the race" is just funny. There are only probably only two horses that are capable of running this track/distance in a lower time than 2:02.66 and that's giving them a fast track and any pace they want. So no fluke took place regardless of what plays out later.

Three powerful angles: Rider Upgrade, complete change in tactics, wet track. Any one is enough to pick up significant legnths(esp. Tactics/Wet) and change a horse completely around, no less all three in full blossom. I wouldn't hold out for this horse to fall flat, even Giacomo went on to win a Grade ll. And horses that finish that fast are rarely pretenders, you can get a cheap "luggers" win but you can't fake actual speed. Look up the undercard and look at all those sprinters who finished up in 13 and change that day especially after the morning races and then tell yourself that MTB won due to extenuating circumstances.

Mike Tyson gets knocked out by Buster Douglas.  Can "Buster" do it again?  We will soon get to find out as there is no rest for the weary.  

81 lifetime Beyer best and Mine That Bird swallows the field. Please people, don't be naive! That little guy had help and it wasn't Calvin Borel's magical ride!

Although I am hoping that the Bird does win the Triple Crown, I think we have to keep in mind that the "Crown Gods" can be wicked or at least wickedly entertaining.

So...with that in mind I can see "Another" Bird being the spoiler and winning the Belmont instead..."Summer Bird".

He did run 6th in the Derby and 3rd in the Arkansas Derby so he might just now be finding his stride.

His owners would be smart if they bypassed the Preakness and just rested and prepared him for the Belmont.

And remember that "IF" he does run in the Belmont, that he is also bred for that distance with the same sire Birdstone.   And with the likes of 3 other Classic winners Summer Squall, Alysheba and Nijinsky II being the sires of all of the mares on his dams side.

So I might even go so far as to say that he's even possibly more bred for it than MTB is.

I had a friend that liked Mine That Bird and asked me my opinion I use Brisnet PPs and what I noticed about him was his off track breeding as given in the programs format sire 23% dam 20%  mud I only use this program and more than 20% mud on both sides is unusually high after looking at hundreds of past performances I think this horse really moved up on the track and got a great ride by Borel

Well I wish this horse well in his next two races. However I have to admit that I share your skepticism. The Preakness will have a few new faces with lots of speed (Big Drama; Mr. Fantasy; Hull and perhaps others). Then too, if the track is dry, Pioneer or Papa Clem may turn the tables.  The Belmont always has a few new faces that are fresh and rested.  So it is an uphill climb for MTB. Calvin has proven time and again his talent but the horse has to win the race. I see three different horses winning the TC this year. But it was an awesome Derby that won't soon be forgotten.

It would make my day if MTB wins the TC. He is a horse for the people. People who spend millions at the elite sales only to get beaten by a horse from New Mexico that once went for $9,500 need to learn from it, and realize that ordinary people can sometimes come out ahead also.

I see no reason for MTB not to win the Preakness particularly if he hugs the rail.  Interested in how tall he is?  15 hh? 15.2 hh?  The smaller the better in my opinion, more maneuverable!

These handicappers are a joke! Because of the article on dosage numbers, they threw out Mine That Bird----- dosage smosage-- the horse has the pedigree, along with many others Derby Day and PrEakness dAY, IT'S ALOT OF LUCK-- PURE AND SiMPLE-

We're leaving out the conditioning aspects...  Mine that Bird's trainer hasn't even come up with winners at Sunland Park -- let alone bring a young hoss out of a major race in two weeks.  

I don't think it matters whether it's an off-track or not, I don't think he wins the Preakness.  I hope he does because nobody deserves to go into the Belmont with a chance to win the TC more than Borel does, but in the last 10 or so years, horses who won the Derby coming from the rear or mid-pack haven't faired real well in the Preakness (i.e. Giacomo, Monarchos, etc.)  The horses who have won the Derby and were on or near the lead have come back to, more often than not, win the Preakness (i.e. Big Brown, Smarty Jones, Funny Cide, War Emblem, etc.)  I don't think it's that the horse isn't talented enough, I simply think it's that his running style isn't conducive to the Preakness.  If the track were to come up sloppy or wet, I think the race would favor a horse with a little more speed that would probably like the offgoing.  Maybe a horse like Hull who should love the slop being out of Holy Bull.  Just my opinion.

Have you guys looked at a PP lately for this so-called "miracle horse".  Not only won't he win the Preakness, I seriously doubt you'll ever see him win another graded race. Can anyone say "juiced"?

Jeez people give the horse a chance you'd think that after all these years you'd all know better than to count out Calvin Borel and you'd better than to count out any horses in any race. I've seen a lot of longshots beat the "best" horses. And for those of you who think he's a one hit wonder obviously not because he was a champion 2 year old in Canada. I'm not saying he won't have to work hard for it but I'm not counting him out like all of you seem to be. Remember that everyone thought War Emblem was a fluke to but he proved them wrong in the Preakness he just wasn't bred for 1 and a  1/2 and he had bad luck that day. I'm just saying.....

No reason to keep going on about the possibility of doping.  The horse tested clean.  Don't you think if the connections had some sort of miracle (and undetectable) drug they would have had a little more success up until this point?

On another note, I would like to congratulate IEAH on their successful claim of I Want Revenge!

Man that crew is talented...and good looking too!

Stardom Bound...woooosh! Strike One.

IWR...woooosh! Strike Two

Can't wait to see who strikes them out.

Sacarstically sincere.

DL

Have a bit of free time at the moment, so I'll enter into this-

Likely several factors contributed to MTB's victory, but I doubt that previously undiscovered superior quality are among them. Part by intent, and part by luck, this horse was, in retrospect, paced ideally. He did, however, respond, while, perhaps, others did not. He ran a european style race and, as it turned out, this carried the day. I am not in awe of his closing fractions-considering the pace he ran. Such style, for example, rarely prevails in a Belmont Stakes. Another interesting angle is the fact that he trained at relatively high altitudes prior to shipping to Churchill. Such had been cited as a potential rationale for Canonero IIs Ky. Derby, and, perhaps, Preakness win, but that one did later defeat Riva Ridge long after. There is no denying that MTB ran the final time he did, and few would have thought that possible. Even had the others run their race, MTB would have at least been close at the finish on that day. It is also possible that MTB is of similar quality to his sire, Birdstone (nothing in his pps should eliminate this possibility). Birdstone was also capable of being right there. Lastly, he may be a true 1 1/4M type, and perhaps few in that field could be similarly deemed.    

our connections want to be the next TC winner...but we HOPE the little guy can PULL it off...BREED MORE GELDINGS!!!...

I just think it would be too funny (and GREAT) if all you people who think you know all this stuff watch this obscure horse win the Triple Crown this year. I hope he does!! What a boost for racing and the common man. Exactly what racing needs right now. I am cheering for him loudly to do it!! I sure hope he does. I will be watching and praying both for his wins and his safety. Another Tin Man. I love it. :-)

The "pity" for IEAH should be placed on hold.  Read about the possibly career ending problems for Revenge. Sad, if he doesn't recover.  But, the bone chip in Desert Party's ankle explains much.

But, the "81" Beyer and he must have been "juiced" - Sounds as though some posters still believe that handicapping three old stakes colts is the same as rating older claiming short field races.  Consider that colts and fillies in the spring of their 3 year old careers are similar to developing teenagers approaching their late teens and 20th birthdays.  They develop, at various rates, from Jan through May.  A race run in March should not be etched in stone.  They can make remarkable advancements, seemingly, over night.  Those who whine about that 81 should look back through the PP's of other Derby entrants.  You will find many a 70ish and low 80 Beyer, suddenly, climbing into the 90s at various times.  May have come in March or April, or even, as in MTB's case, in May.  Remember, handicapping races on the Road to the Roses is not like looking at 5 to 9 year old claimers who run every 10 days or so due to the condition book.  The young stars are being groomed from Jan to May on road maps - Many are over raced or placed in grueling races too early.  The peak is desired for the first Saturday in May, not at the Santa Anita Derby or the Wood or the like.  That is the same as winning the Big 12 BB title in February and losing in March Madness or the Final Four.

Sceptre, not only did he run by 18 horses in 21 seconds, squeezing by one and going around others, in his last race, $800,000 Sunland Derby, where he finished fourth, he was right there with the front group going :22/change and :45/change...looks like he can move on both ends of the race, though the last half is where it counts.LOL!

Everyone else in the race had the chance to pass everyone in 21 seconds at the end to win the race.

I love what Tim Layden wrote:

"Borel passed 18 horses in 21 explosive seconds. He shot by General Quarters on the rail, swept outside past Atomic Rain, ducked inside, and just past the three-sixteenths pole squeezed through a tiny gap between Join in the Dance and the rail. Mine That Bird has no stones, but Borel's are big enough for both of them."

I'm still waiting to hear the reason why MTB was gelded?  whoever made that decision is kicking themself now!

In all the Comments ,only one person knew that Mind the Bird was the Canadian 2 year old of the Year.

This does not say much for all the American Horse experts.

• Scot's reply:  Errr... while only one person commented on this fact, it doesn't follow that no one else knew it.  Your comment doesn't mention that Mine That Bird is a gelding or a Thoroughbred or a son of Birdstone, but it's not fair to assume that you didn't know those things....

Beyer, Christ, Litfin, Watchmaker, Welch, The Wizard, Bris, Thoro Graph, Ragozin and any other public handicappers and tout services you all stink! You should all become weathermen in New England.

How can anyone post that Mine That Bird won't win the Preakness?

How many of you so called experts bet him in the Derby? So then how can you say he won't win the Preakness?????

The Legend-I agree totally.  I think that we may see a triple crown winner this year.  How anyone can say that The Bird is not a strong talent, obviously has not looked at his linage and the fact that he was Canadian 2 yr old champ.  This horse is no slouch.  Wake up people!!  

The Legend  and Speedball

You guys are so right.  How many people bet on Mine That Bird?  Yeah well there goes the big shots that think they have all the top wagers aye?  I know of one person that is a good handicapper that would have probably bet on him had he though of it.  But the rest, well Action speaks volumes.  Triple Crown?  Yeah I think so.  :)

showjumper

Too bad they can't put them back LOL!  :)

After this Derby it couldn't be more obvious that handicapping and predictions are just a fun game.  No one knows what will happen - but I agree with quite a few who have commented so far on this blog - I love this horse and his story and he could lift the sport of racing and the spirits of the whole country if he were to win the crown.  I'm behind him all the way.

  I agree with Berttheclock ! The dosage profiles are used mostly on the Derby I still find the dosage useful in many ways ,Ijust think some of the stallions need to be re -catagorized ! Iwish MTB lots of luck ! I just feel terrible that my Derby horse ITW may never race again !!!I feel he was such a talented horse now we'll never find out just how good he might have been ???

I'm rooting for RAIN a week from Saturday. RAIN! RAIN! RAIN! Go MTB!!! I'm tired of waiting for a Triple Crown winner...I'm more tired of all the sympathy for the big money trainers and owners. To see it done by a little brown gelding would be awesome and hilarious!

     By the way Scot you never answered my Question on what would be A good way to go about getting in to Pedigree or mating aspects of Thoroughbreds as a career ! I've been told with all my Knowledge ,Ishould put it to good use ! I still have things to learn but, Iwould appriciate any thing you could suggest !!!! :)

• Scot's reply:  I sent you a private message.  Email me to discuss further!

He has a good chance of winning both of the upcoming classics. The difference this year--even from those old Iron Horse stories--is that these animals are running more on their own strengths and capacity than ever.

Last year they were pumping most of those horses--including Curlin--full of steroids and pain killers. Now you're seeing the horses more genuinely.

How much smaller is this horse than the average TB?

As to grit, I don't know if I saw that. He was doing his job, and doing it well and fluidly. His run was not so different from the exquisite Rachel Alexandra's race, only smaller and so appeared "busier" perhaps.

He's young, he's not afraid to pass the other horses, he's not intimidated by the colts... his people are with him and his name is on the first leg of the TC silver trophy. History.

Being gelded, he doesn't even have the extra boost of natural testosterone to enhance his performance. His feet are good, he uses his legs, his mind is good (note the simple bridle and bit), and it is all him together with the talented Calvin.

If he stays safe and no one hurts him, he's got a good chance to win both races. He is already a Canadian champion, not a backwater no-name. And his pedigree is as notable as the others, most who are his relatives.

He will win it, i have a feeling

    Iknow alot of people are upset because MTB was gelded!!!Maybe he was unruly as a youngster or maybe it was physical ..Hey he won the derby ! Maybe another John Henry???

AT LEAST MINE THAT WAS IN SHAPE ENTERING KENTUCKEY DERBY>HIS SIX FURLONG IN SUNLAND DERBY WAS 1:10.20.NO WAY HE WAS GOING TO LAST IN SUNLAND DERBY>THE PACE WAS VERY VERY VERY>THAT WILL GET YOU FIT OR BREAK YOU

not smoking a thing Nicanor is a lock to break his maiden next out and will show so much improvement he will go to the Belmont if Bird wins and stop him. This is the brother of Barbaro what chance would Bird or anyone have against him.

Bet big Drama in the Preakness we got the word from Mr meow [Greg j.] He's never wrong  hhhhaaah only 0-4 for his Derby picks. Bird is very good but won't win the triple.Nicanor is my Darkhorse for the Breeders cup Classic!

There were eight horses in the KY Derby that were multiple stakes winners...Mine That Bird was one of them.

By our analysis, there were 9 horses bred for the distance and bred well enough to actually get it in top company on the first Saturday in May...Mine That Bird was one of them.

There was one Champion in the KY Derby field...Mine That Bird.

We hit the tri and had Papa Clem but didn't box the super (for lack of money).

I hear Durkin's call now..."It's been 30 years...there's a furlong to go...and a Birdstone beats a Birdstone in The Belmont Stakes!"

WITH ADDITION OF HULL IN RACE <THE PACE SHOULD BE FAST FAST FAST<MOST LIKELY BIG DRAMA WILL NOT ENTER>ALWAYS DUCKING SOMEONE>

EVEN THOUGH HULL DOES NOT HAVE GOOD FINAL TIME<HE WILL HAVE A BIG BIG INPACT ON WHO WINS RACE>LETS HOPE DISTANCE AND TRACK CONDITION NOT THE MAIN ISSUE IN PREAKNESS<THE MAIN MAIN PLAYER< HE CAN LAND AKNOCKOUT BLOW<JUST ASK SILVER CITY

Interesting comments about MTB being another John Henry - I remember comments such as "If only he had not been gelded" or "Why was he gelded?" when JH was running - John Henry was gelded due to his studdish behaviors - He would have never made it out of Evangeline Downs had he not been gelded and Cabrini Green would not have been such a bar room bet as the only horse to ever beat JH three times..  He used to try to tear up his stalls.  However, one of the comments which struck me as unknowing about JH, was the one by the great sports writer Jim Murray in the LAT - He raved about how a horse with poor breeding kept beating the Blue Bloods - Poor Mr Murray never realized the blue blood coursing through the veins of JH from the mare side by Double Jay and Princequillo.  Murray just looked at Old Bob Bowers, although OBB did throw git that won the Michigan Mile and the LA Handicap.  JH's dam side was very royally bred.

But, I'm glad to see the dossage for MTB has been adjusted.  Vice Regent - Northern Dancer and someone, mistakenly, had him at 5.40?  The figure is more in line with the other Birdstone runner in the Derby, Summer Bird.  But, it is also nice to see MTB joining both Sunny's Halo and Northern Dancer as Canadian Champion 2 Yr Olds and KD winners.

• Scot's reply:  Mine That Bird does indeed have a Dosage Index of 5.40.  I argued in a previous post that his Dosage is likely to change when other stallions are factored into the system in future revisions.  ... Interesting comments on John Henry!  I suspect we'll see more and more "gelding" comparisons to John Henry as time goes on... awhile back I looked at Brass Hat's similarities to John Henry.

as the agent for the seller (Dave Cotey) on Mine That Bird all I can

say is WOW, great race....Soooo

exiting, I told Dave about your article and I am trying to forward it to him without success..can you

help me please...

sincerely

Gail BK