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Rachel Alexandra and the Rasmussen Factor

A reader's comment to a post last week (Thoroughbred Pedigree Review of KEESEP Hip #4233 -- A Rasmussen Factor Case Study) pointed out the significant mare inbreeding in a 1952 mare named Ellen's Best (pedigree). Ellen's Best's fourth dam was Friar's Carse, who was also the dam of her sire War Relic. In turn, War Relic was inbred to Fairy Gold, the dam of both his grandsire and his damsire. (It makes more sense when you're looking at the pedigree!) 

Ellen's Best was herself an undistinguished runner -- she managed one show effort from 14 starts for $250 lifetime earnings -- but the family 1-o mare had a strong pedigree and is well-represented 50-odd years later. Not the least of her tail-female descent is Rachel Alexandra.

I responded to Archer's comment quickly by tracing Ellen's Best's line down to Rachel Alexandra and noting a handful of additional Rasmussen Factors (RFs) throughout Rachel's female lineage.  More, it would seem, than most female lines would boast.

Well, I decided to look back in Rachel Alexandra's full pedigree to see what other Rasmussen influences there would be.  Turns out, a lot.

Her dam, granddam, sixth dam, seventh dam, 10th dam, 14th dam, 17th dam, 21st dam, 22nd dam, and 23rd dam all had at least one RF -- that's 10 mares out of the first 23 in tail-female descent, or 43.5%.

I looked at the first six generations of Rachel Alexandra's pedigree and found that of 126 ancestors, 20 (15.9%) had an RF, with a higher percentage in closer generations. Here's a chart that shows the percentage of ancestors with an RF has mostly increased in later generations:

Gen. No. Ancestors
This Gen. / Cum.
Ancestors w/RF (%)
-- This Generation --
Ancestors w/RF (%)
-- Cumulative --
1 2 / 2 1 (50.0%) 1 (50.0%)
2 4 / 6 1 (25.0%) 2 (33.3%)
3 8 / 14 2 (25.0%) 4 (28.6%)
4 16 / 30 5 (31.3%) 9 (30.0%)
5 32 / 62 3 (9.4%) 12 (19.4%)
6 64 (126) 8 (12.5%) 20 (15.9%)

Four of those Rasmussen influences are to Canterbury Pilgrim (two through Nearctic and two through Lady Angela) and six are to Plucky Liege (through Sir Ivor, Stop the Music, Lord Gaylord, and three times through Hail to Reason).  Other RFs are to Selene (twice), Alcibiades, Black Duchess, Briar-Root, Dubbed In, Herodias, Imperatrice, Lavendula, Pocohontas, and Sanda.  Only Lord Gaylord (Rachel's third damsire) had two RFs.  (But note that Rachel's 23rd dam, Promise (pedigree), had three Rasmussen Factor inbreedings plus a fourth mare doubled through her dam!)

I'm not aware of any valid studies that identify the percentage of the Thoroughbred population -- current or historic -- that have Rasmussen inbreeding. But it's probably around 2 to 3% for all Thoroughbreds and maybe 3 to 6% for what most people would consider "well-bred" horses. Rachel's six-generation cumulative total of 16% ancestors with RF is likely several times what would be seen in the average filly born in 2006. And certainly 30% RF ancestors through four generations has got to be anomalous.

Now, a single case doesn't make a good argument and there's a whole lot more going on in Rachel's pedigree than female family inbreeding, but it is fascinating to consider how much of an influence mare duplications have played in the development of today's hottest filly.

13 Comments:

Now I'm going to bring everything full-circle!  

The Rasmussen Factor post last week included an example from the upcoming Keeneland yearling sale... the filly is by the Vinery stallion Congrats (SRO).

Well... I notice that if you cross Congrats with Rachel, the resulting foal would have a 3x4 RF to Wild Applause.  

Wild Applause is my mare of choice for creating female family inbreeding in foals out of Rachel Alexandra -- and there are plenty of opportunities out there, since Wild Applause is ancestress of multiple stallions. (As a 1-x family descendent of La Troienne, perhaps that's not too surprising.)  Look for Eastern Echo or Flatter (SRO) or Swiss Yodeler (SRO) in a stallion's pedigree to set up the Wild Applause RF when crossed with Rachel Alexandra.

And now a question:  if YOU wanted to mate Rachel Alexandra so that the resulting foal had an RF, which mare would you choose?  (Looking at Rachel Alexandra's pedigree, you have 15 choices, since there are 15 mares in her first four generations....)

sgillies 26 Aug 2009 11:15 AM

The female family I would focus on in her pedigree is that of Cap and Bells.

It's a female family that has carried it's class for generations, but more importantly, when given an opportunity in the shed, especially it's male representatives, they produce better runners than they were themselves (El Prado, Dunce, Drone, Notebook).

You can find this blood with Drone but I would specifically look for Notebook. He was undervalued as a stallion but sired quality over and over again, and now his daughters are producing fantastic runners that have versatile speed they can carry. He's sitting at number 9 right now on the bms list.

While there's not a stallion worthy of her accomplishments with him as a broodmare sire yet, I do think that will change in the near future. Too bad Well Armed is a gelding.

If one were to really play with this year's Classics' results, sending her to Grindstone would provide Drone and by association, Cap and Bells 4sx5d.

Stephen 26 Aug 2009 11:56 AM

This is a nice example of how to waste time trying to find something "special" without any value.

Inbreeding is defined as the mating of individuals more closely related than is average for the population (breed). The average inbreeding coefficient in a five generation pedigree of a 1994 thoroughbred in the United States is 1%.

Rachel's closest inbreeding is 4 x 4 to Northern Dancer. 4 x 4 inbreeding results in a coefficient of 0.78%.

Bottom line, Rachel is slightly less inbred than is normal for a thoroughbred.

Elaine 26 Aug 2009 12:23 PM

Through Glowing Tribute I found Seeking the Best, Sire out of Seeking the Gold, and Mackie, by Summer Squall and Glowing Tribute.

Not a glitzy mating as Truenicks rates this a D, but so far the "best" I could find.  I will dig a little deeper.

TJLuvsTizs 26 Aug 2009 3:49 PM

The mare to Sadler's Wells, Fairy Bridge is a full sister to chef-de-race stallion Nureyev out of the mare Special.  There are many stallions that have Nureyev in their bloodlines.  However, the most prominent of those being Kingmambo, Theatrical, and Big Brown.  

Kingmambo- 4x6 (A truenick)

Theatrical- 3x6 (C truenick)

Big Brown- 4x6 (B+ truenick)

Of these three I really like the Kingmambo cross as there is much less in-breeding through this cross.

TJLuvsTizs 26 Aug 2009 7:24 PM

I'm not sure about the Nicks on this one, but for a "Possible" Turf/Synthetic running Foal i'd try...

Henrythenavigator.

It makes for a 4s x 5d to Fairy Bridge.  Which would also bring in a 2nd dose of Special thru Nureyev.

Another "Possibility" would be...

Elusive Quality.

Not sure about the Nicks again, but it would make for a 4s x 5d to Glowing Tribute.   With extra doses of Mr. Prospector, Sir Gaylord and a bunch of Nasrullah/Princequillo further back.

Maybe "IF" i'd of spent more than 5 minutes on this i'd do better...ha ha.

CRob87 26 Aug 2009 7:29 PM

Very cool article though.

If someone we're to do a real complete study of the RF factor I think it would also be interesting to know if the outcome produced better Colts or Fillies...ya know ???

CRob87 26 Aug 2009 8:06 PM

With J.J.'s money, I would also make the trip to Europe to give her a shot with...

Galileo or Sea The Stars.

Galileo gives the Foal a 3s x 5d to Fairy Bridge.

And IMO...you gotta try to get Urban Sea herself into "ANY" pedigree you can.

CRob87 26 Aug 2009 9:19 PM

Not that it really matters re- the subject here, but Elaine was mistaken about R. Alexandra's coefficient of inbreeding (through 8). It's actually over 2% (higher than the norm for the breed)...This RF exercise is probably fascinating for some, but I fear that many may overestimate its potential value-make it too much a focal point in their matings-much as is often done with "nicks". Scot, I'll tell you what could prove highly beneficial to your readers/breeders- Have Allen, and others very experienced in planning matings offer their COMPLETE thought process when matching a few random mares (be sure to also supply them with a thorough conformational analysis of the mares). I doubt you'd have many/any takers, though.  

  • Scot's reply:  Thanks for your comments. The exercise you suggest would be fascinating ... but as you said, probably unlikely to have a lot of volunteers. Most of the bloodstock agents who regularly evaluate "random" mares are doing so with a system that they consider to be proprietary (and they charge accordingly!).  A great series run on another BloodHorse.com blog will be of interest, however:  Developing a Stakes-Winning Thoroughbred Filly is a guest series on the TrueNicks blog that reveals many of the considerations that went into the development of a black type breeding operation over two generations.
sceptre 26 Aug 2009 10:51 PM

i went through this earlier this year when mating my slew o gold mare.  she was high strung, nervous and very emotional in general. her ancestors were all top horses in ireland, and she was bred by robert clay.  i settled on seeking the best, it turned out to be a A+ cross, and had almost every La Troienne daughter represented in the cross. Coupled with his longevity on the track, conformation and a lovely intelligence about him, good temperment, i hope this works out. rachel alexandra, no matter what you think, is a phenominal  horse.

mourningdove 27 Aug 2009 12:41 PM

Elaine, you're missing the point. What is important about Rachel Alexandra's pedigree is not the overall degree of inbreeding, but a specific background and the concentrations behind it. It's no coincidence that his two grade one winners and his stakes winner that placed in the Canadian Oaks all have Cure the Blues in the pedigree. Look at Cure the Blues/Stop the Music and Lady Capulet (dam of El Prado). Obviously what has happened is that some key haplotypes from El Prado (or one's that have an affinity with those haplotypes) play a more than mathematically proportional part in what Medaglia d'Oro passes on. The total degree of inbreeding is really nothing to do with it. While I believe that the Rasmussen factor is associative, not causative, accumulating ancestors with CONCENTRATIONS of important strains is what makes the difference.

Alan Porter 27 Aug 2009 12:48 PM

She's got a lot of Imperatrice through Sir Gaylord and Speedwell.

Couldn't hurt to breed to that fabulous mare line.

vineyridge 15 Sep 2009 12:10 PM

Alan,

An off shoot of the rachel subject,but what are your feelings

about matings with daughters and

grand-daughters of drone with sons

and grandsons of lady capulet?

guard91 23 Sep 2009 1:54 PM

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