By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
Although it's not a graded
stakes, Saturday's $175,000 Monomoy Girl S. at Churchill Downs might just be
the best race of the weekend.
The six-horse field is
packed with talent. The entrants include:
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#1 Princess Aliyah (15-1),
winner of the Valley Of The Vapors S. at Oaklawn Park.
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#2 Immersive (4-5),
the champion two-year-old filly of 2024.
-
#3 Anna's Promise (4-1),
a graded stakes-placed Kentucky Oaks (G1) participant.
-
#4 Minnesota Munny (20-1),
an allowance optional claiming winner.
-
#5 Running Away (9-2),
a two-time stakes winner.
-
#6 Take Charge Milady (7-2),
runner-up in the Ashland (G1) and a Kentucky Oaks starter.
Many bettors figure to focus
their attention on Immersive, who compiled a perfect 4-for-4 record last year. The
Godolphin homebred won her debut sprinting six furlongs at Saratoga, then
rattled off victories in the seven-furlong Spinaway (G1), 1 1/16-mile
Alcibiades (G1), and 1 1/16-mile Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1, showcasing
the ability to handle a variety of distances.
But I'm not sure Immersive
is unbeatable at a short price while making her belated three-year-old debut in
the Monomoy Girl. There are a few possible chinks in her armor:
-
Immersive has yet to
run especially fast on the Beyer Speed Figure scale. Her career-best number,
earned in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, is only an 84.
-
She's returning from
an unexpectedly long layoff. Immersive missed the winter and spring due to bone
bruising.
-
Immersive rejoined
the work tab in early May and has posted only half a dozen timed workouts in
preparation for the Monomoy Girl. Only one was longer than half a mile.
Saturday's race looks more like a prep for Saratoga prizes like the Coaching
Club American Oaks (G1) and Alabama (G1) than a goal in and of itself, so it's
possible Immersive will be short of peak fitness for her comeback.
With these question marks
surrounding Immersive, I'm going to try to beat her with Anna's Promise, who
has run a bit faster on the Beyer scale.
Anna's Promise failed to win
in five starts as a juvenile, but she's improved by leaps and bounds this year.
During the winter at Gulfstream Park, she won a $50,000 maiden optional claimer
and a $75,000 allowance optional claimer, showing pace-pressing speed in both
races. Then she ran a good second in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2), pulling 10
1/4 lengths ahead of third-place finisher and next-out winner Cassiar.
Most recently, Anna's
Promise started as a 29-1 longshot in the Kentucky Oaks (G1). She outran her
odds, chasing a quick pace in third place before tiring down the homestretch to
finish fifth in a 13-horse field.
The Kentucky Oaks was contested
over a sealed, wet-fast track, and closers swept the trifecta. Anna's Promise
held on well given her proximity to the early pace, and take note, pacesetter
La Cara (who tired to finish ninth) subsequently bounced back to wire the Acorn
(G1).
Anna's Promise figures to enjoy
a more favorable setup in the Monomoy Girl. There's isn't a ton of speed in
this small field; indeed, only Running Away is a true frontrunner. Anna's
Promise should be able to press a modest pace in second place, leaving her with
plenty left for the homestretch drive. If Immersive does prove short of her
best off the long layoff, Anna's Promise can turn back the favorite and secure
her first stakes win.
Another filly well worth
supporting is #6 Take Charge Milady (7-2).
She never fired when finishing 12th in the Kentucky Oaks, but she'd dealt with
a quarter crack leading up to the race, and that may have compromised her
chances.
Take Charge Milady had
previously shown flashes of serious talent. In the Martha Washington S. at
Oaklawn Park, she romped by 5 3/4 lengths over Quietside, who subsequently won
the Honeybee (G3) and Fantasy (G2). And in the Ashland (G1), Take Charge Milady
closed for second place against La Cara.
As a late runner, Take
Charge Milady may find herself compromised by a modest pace in the Monomoy
Girl. But a spot in the trifecta is surely within reach.
Running Away, who boasts
wins in the Busanda S. and Horseshoe Indianapolis H. on her record this year,
can round out the superfecta. She finished far behind Take Charge Milady when
eighth in the Ashland, but she was beaten to the lead that day, the only time in
six starts that Running Away hasn't made the lead. As the lone frontrunner in
the Monomoy Girl field, Running Away shouldn't have any difficulty securing her
preferred pacesetting position.
Selections
1st: Anna's Promise
2nd: Immersive
3rd: Take Charge Milady
4th: Running Away
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the Monomoy Girl?
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
