By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
If the quality of horses
entered in Saturday's $275,000 Blame (G3) at Churchill Downs is any indication,
the 1 1/8-mile dirt race for older horses will soon be upgraded to Grade 2 status.
Frankly, there have been Grade 1 races with lesser fields than the stellar group
slated to contest this year's Blame.
You know it's a deep race
when 2024 Kentucky Derby (G1) winner #4
Mystik Dan (4-1) is the third choice on the morning line. The son of
Goldencents has gone winless in five starts since beating future champion
Sierra Leone and eventual Saudi Cup (G1) winner Forever Young in a thrilling
Run for the Roses, but he showed signs of returning to form in the 1 1/16-mile
Lake Ouachita S. at Oaklawn Park last month, finishing second by a nose to 2023
Pennsylvania Derby (G1) winner Saudi Crown while pulling eight lengths clear of
the rest.
Mystik Dan has scored two of
his three career wins at Churchill Downs and should appreciate returning to
Louisville's famous oval for the Blame. He exits a fast half-mile workout over
this track last Saturday and warrants respect. But he hasn't run quite as fast
on the Beyer Speed Figure scale as #7
Most Wanted (7-2), the second choice on the morning line and the horse to
beat in my opinion.
Conditioned by two-time
Eclipse Award-winning trainer Brad Cox, Most Wanted started his career on a hot
streak last June. He won his first four starts in succession, including the Ellis
Park Derby and Oklahoma Derby (G3). Then he ended his three-year-old year with
a game runner-up finish in the Clark (G2), beaten less than one length by Grade
1 winner Rattle N Roll while pulling 3 1/4 lengths clear of future Dubai World
Cup (G1) winner Hit Show.
Most Wanted is 0-for-2 this
year, but he's been running better than ever. In the 1 1/16-mile Challenger
(G3) at Tampa Bay Downs, he finished second by 1 1/4 lengths against
Skippylongstocking, who won the Hollywood Gold Cup (G2) last week. Most Wanted pulled
14 3/4 lengths clear of the third-place finisher and earned a 102 Beyer Speed
Figure higher than Mystik Dan's career-best 101.
Then in the 1 1/16-mile
Alysheba (G2) at Churchill Downs, Most Wanted carved out the pace before
staying on to finish second by 1 1/2 lengths against 2023 champion two-year-old
male Fierceness. Most Wanted finished 2 3/4 lengths ahead of Mineshaft (G3)
winner #6 Hall of Fame (8-1), who is
back for the Blame, and he earned a career-best 105 Beyer.
Most Wanted's Alysheba
performance was excellent. After setting fractions of :24.39 and :48.31, he
blazed his third quarter-mile in :22.80 and his final five-sixteenths of a mile
in :29.79 per the Equibase GPS result chart. In order to chase down Most
Wanted, Fierceness had to clock 1 1/16 miles in the track-record time of
1:40.66.
In all six of his route
races, Most Wanted has either set the pace or pressed the tempo in second
place, so early speed is one of his biggest assets. That should be an advantage
since his primary pace rival in the Blame, #5 Best Actor (30-1), is expected to
scratch and run in a Sunday allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs per
Marcus Hersh of the Daily Racing Form.
Most Wanted is also entered
in the Sunday allowance optional claimer, and according to Hersh, trainer Brad
Cox is uncertain whether Most Wanted will run there or in the Blame. If Most
Wanted opts for Sunday's easier spot, I'll view him as practically a lock to
win. But I'm optimistic he'll stay in Saturday's graded stakes instead and
conquer all comers.
My second choice is Hall of
Fame, who finished 2 3/4 lengths behind Most Wanted in the Alysheba. He didn't
appear entirely comfortable racing in a pocket along the inside, but
nevertheless churned on to hold third place by 2 1/2 lengths over Santa Anita
H. (G1) winner Locked.
Hall of Fame's previous form
was even better. Two starts back he utilized a clear pace-tracking trip to
finish second in the New Orleans Classic (G2), coming home two lengths ahead of
Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) winner Sierra Leone while earning a 106 Beyer. And three
starts back, he won the Mineshaft (G3) by a head over Komorebino Omoide, who has
since won the Steve Sexton Mile (G3).
If Hall of Fame can avoid
getting buried in traffic again in the Blame, I think he'll produce an effort
more in line with his New Orleans try and take home second place in the Blame.
I'm a little less keen to
support #9 Post Time (3-1), the
morning-line favorite in the Blame. While he's performed admirably at the Grade
1 level, finishing second in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1), second in the
Metropolitan H. (G1), and third in the Whitney (G1), all five of his stakes
wins have come in one-turn races over one mile or less, including a quartet of
seven-furlong sprints. I wonder if 1 1/8 miles is bit farther than Post Time really
wants to run.
Selections
1st: Most Wanted
2nd: Hall of Fame
3rd: Mystik Dan
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the Blame?
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
