By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
Every year, California hosts
a trio of major 1 1/4-mile dirt races: the Santa Anita H. (G1), the Hollywood
Gold Cup (G2), and the Pacific Classic (G1). They're hard races to win, but
trainer John Sadler makes the task look easy.
Sadler's recent record in
these three races is impressive. Since 2015, he's won the Santa Anita H. three
times with Accelerate (2018), Gift Box (2019), and Combatant (2020), the Hollywood
Gold Cup twice with Hard Aces (2015) and Accelerate (2018), and the Pacific
Classic four times with Accelerate (2018), Higher Power (2019), Tripoli (2021),
and Flightline (2022).
Also, in the last five years
Sadler has recorded runner-up finishes in the Pacific Classic with Full Serrano
(2024), the Hollywood Gold Cup with Higher Power (2020), and the Santa Anita H.
with Subsanador (2024). During the same timeframe, according to DRF Formulator,
Sadler has compiled an excellent 4-for-15 (27%) record in all 1 1/4-mile dirt
races.
With all of these statistics
in mind, I believe Sadler's #2 Packs a Wahlop
is worth betting in Monday's running of the $200,000 Hollywood Gold Cup at
Santa Anita.
Seven horses have turned out
for the historic race, which carried Grade 1 status as recently as 2023. The
expected favorite is #5
Skippylongstocking, an East Coast raider who has earned over $3.5 million
despite the fact he's never won a Grade 1 race. He's placed several times at
the highest level—including in such prestigious prizes as the Belmont (G1),
Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1), and Pegasus World Cup (G1)—but Grade 2 and Grade
3 stakes have proven more manageable for Skippylongstocking, and he's won eight
of them through the years.
I believe Skippylongstocking
will run a competitive race in the Hollywood Gold Cup. He's meeting a
relatively easy field and should be able to work out his preferred trip racing
on or near the lead. But he exits a subpar third-place finish in the Oaklawn H.
(G2), and it's worth wondering if 1 1/4 miles is a bit beyond
Skippylongstocking's best distance. It's been nearly three years since
Skippylongstocking finished a tiring third in the 1 1/2-mile Belmont (his most
recent start beyond 1 1/8 miles), and he often loses ground from the eighth
pole to the finish line.
For these reasons, Packs a Wahlop
is an intriguing alternative. The son of Creative Cause has spent the vast
majority of his career competing on turf, most notably winning the Del Mar
Juvenile Turf (G3) and Zuma Beach (G3) as a two-year-old in 2022.
Packs a Wahlop hasn't won
since the Zuma Beach, and he enters the Hollywood Gold Cup off 16 straight
defeats. But he's improved since being claimed in December by Sadler. Last time
out, he tracked a runaway leader in the 1 1/4-mile Charles Whittingham (G2)
before battling down the homestretch to finish second by a head. It doesn't
appear 1 1/4 miles is an obstacle for Packs a Wahlop, and his early speed should
allow him to secure a forward trip in the Hollywood Gold Cup and avoid dirt
kickback.
Now granted, Packs a Wahlop was
soundly beaten in his lone dirt start to date, finishing fourth by 24 lengths
in the 2023 Sham (G3) at Santa Anita. But there are two points worth noting.
One, Packs a Wahlop was interfered with when a rival pulled up, and since he
had no chance at a better finish he was basically eased to the finish line,
exaggerating his margin of defeat. Two, Packs a Wahlop's turf form before and
after the Sham wasn't much better, so it's hard to attribute his Sham defeat to
a disdain for dirt.
Sadler has already
demonstrated he can win a major 1 1/4-mile dirt race with an unheralded turf runner.
Higher Power's 2019 Pacific Classic triumph followed a win in an $80,000
allowance optional claimer and a runner-up effort in the Wickerr S., both
racing one mile on turf. Take note, Brisnet statistics indicate Sadler wins at
a lofty 26% rate with horses switching from turf to dirt.
It helps that Packs a Wahlop's
sire, Creative Cause, was a versatile runner who won the Norfolk (G1) on dirt
and the Best Pal (G2) on synthetic. Some of Creative Cause's most accomplished
progeny have shown similar surface versatility; King Cause and Hush of a Storm
have won stakes on turf and synthetic, while My Boy Jack—the fifth-place
finisher in the 2018 Kentucky Derby—won stakes on dirt and turf. And for what
it's worth, Creative Cause is best known for siring the tried-and-true dirt
horse Pavel, winner of the Stephen Foster H. (G1) and a top-three finisher in
the Pacific Classic and Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) racing 1 1/4 miles on dirt.
For all these reasons, Packs
a Wahlop is my choice to upset the Hollywood Gold Cup. Skippylongstocking can
take second place over #4 Extensive,
an improving son of City of Light who enters off back-to-back maiden special
weight and $50,000 allowance optional claiming wins at Santa Anita.
2025 Hollywood Gold Cup (G2) selections:
1st: #2 Packs a Wahlop
2nd: #5 Skippylongstocking
3rd: #4 Extensive
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the Hollywood Gold Cup?
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
