By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
A stellar renewal of the
Belmont Stakes (G1) is taking place over a shortened 1 1/4-mile distance at Saratoga
this Saturday.
The final leg of the Triple
Crown features a rematch between the top three finishers in the Kentucky Derby
(G1): #2 Sovereignty (2-1), #7 Journalism (8-5), and #6 Baeza (4-1). There's a strong chance
they'll run 1-2-3 again in the Belmont, though not necessarily in the same
order.
The Kentucky Derby unfolded
with fast fractions of :22.81, :46.23, and 1:10.78 over a sloppy track. The
pace was beneficial to late runners, and indeed, the top four finishers were
racing in the back half of the field after the opening six furlongs.
Of the top four, Journalism
stayed closest to the pace. Even though he got boxed in along the rail early on
and didn't appear entirely comfortably racing in sloppy kickback for the first
time, he was never more than 8 1/4 lengths off the pace, whereas Baeza dropped
as many as 11 1/2 lengths behind and Sovereignty had 13 1/2 lengths to make up
at one point.
Despite receiving a
less-than-perfect setup, Journalism launched a sweeping rally around the final
turn to lead in early stretch. However, Sovereignty had closely followed
Journalism's move and rolled past in the final furlong prevail by 1 1/2
lengths.
Since then, they've gone
their separate ways. Sovereignty opted to skip the Preakness (G1), the second
leg of the Triple Crown, and target the Belmont. Journalism, in contrast, took
aim at the Preakness and enhanced his reputation with a tremendous performance.
In the Preakness, Journalism
seemed a little sluggish early on. Jockey Umberto Rispoli guided the colt
inside around the final turn, and Journalism responded with a fresh burst of
speed. Unfortunately, a narrow opening between rivals began to close, and
Journalism found himself in the middle of an intense bumping match with rivals
to his inside and outside.
Somehow, Journalism battled
his way through the pack, shrugged off the bumping, and gained five lengths through
the final furlong on runaway leader Gosger to win the Preakness by half a
length. Many horses would have given up after the bumping incident; for
Journalism to find another gear and chase down a looser leader was spectacular.
It appears Journalism is
none the worse for wear. On Sunday, he worked a quick half-mile at Saratoga in
:47.54, which included a strong six-furlong gallop out in 1:12 4/5.
I expect Journalism to
reproduce his best form in the Belmont, even while running for the third time
in five weeks. Actually, I think there's a chance he'll run a career-best race.
After getting tricky inside trips in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness,
Journalism has drawn an outside post for the Belmont and should have no trouble
working out a clean, unencumbered trip. That might be all he needs to turn the
tables on Sovereignty and win his second U.S. classic.
I respect the chances of
Sovereignty in the Belmont and expect him to run a strong race. He's thrived
since stretching out around two turns last fall, launching late rallies to win
the Street Sense (G3) and Fountain of Youth (G2) before prepping for the
Kentucky Derby with a game runner-up finish in the Florida Derby (G1).
If there's one concern for
Sovereignty's chances, it's the fact only two obvious speed horses—#3 Rodriguez (6-1) and #5 Crudo (15-1)—have entered the
Belmont, and the pace may be more relaxed than in the Kentucky Derby. This
could lend an advantage to horses with more tactical speed (like Journalism and
Baeza) and complicate Sovereignty's path to the winner's circle.
In fact, the Belmont pace
scenario may allow Baeza to reverse the Kentucky Derby outcome and finish ahead
of Sovereignty. The heralded half-brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage
and 2024 Belmont winner Dornoch may have closed from far back in the Kentucky
Derby, but he doesn't have to be a late runner.
To the contrary, Baeza
pressed a sharp pace on his way to winning a one-mile maiden special weight at
Santa Anita by 4 3/4 lengths, and in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), he raced
within a length of the lead for much of the journey before settling for second
place by three-quarters of a length to Journalism.
Baeza is improving by leaps
and bounds. In the Kentucky Derby, he was rallying as well as Sovereignty
around the far turn, but ran up behind horses and had to briefly steady in
traffic. This caused him to lose ground against Sovereignty. Once Baeza got
clear, he closed better than anyone to finish third, 1 3/4 lengths behind
Sovereignty and only a neck behind Journalism.
Since there isn't a ton of
pace in the Belmont field, I expect Baeza to secure a cozy trip rating in third
or fourth place during the early stages. From there, he looms as perhaps the main
threat to upset Journalism.
Rodriguez, gate-to-wire
winner of the Wood Memorial (G2), does his best work racing on the lead. When
employing pace-pressing tactics in the San Felipe (G2), he faltered to finish 11
1/4 lengths behind Journalism in third place. If Rodriguez can shake loose on
an easy lead, he's a danger to take this field a long way on the front end—maybe
even all the way. But the presence of Crudo, a gate-to-wire winner of the Sir
Barton S. three weeks ago, could potentially compromise Rodriguez's chances.
Stretch-running #1 Hill Road (10-1) took a nice step
forward in the Peter Pan (G3), overcoming an illness-induced two-month layoff
to rally and win by three-quarters of a length. He'll need another step forward
to challenge the top three favorites in the Belmont, but he has every chance to
come running for a top-four finish.
Selections
1st: Journalism
2nd: Baeza
3rd: Sovereignty
4th: Rodriguez
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the Belmont Stakes?
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
