Two weeks ago on I made my pre-draw predictions.
My picks were Stay Thirsty, Archarcharch, Soldat, Uncle Mo and Midnight Interlude.
The primary focus on these picks were grinder talents that like wet conditions, since I thought it was going to rain a lot Derby weekend. The weather forecast reveals there will be some rain, but the track will be able to dry out pretty well with nothing substatnial predicted. Thus slop won't be a factor.
Now that I have watched horses work during the week, posted stories on their works and processed a billion photos, I have changed my tune. Two horses that have stood out by Tueseday of this week, previously not on my list, were Shackleford and Pants On Fire.
After the draw finished, I had to re-evaluate how I am going to pick my horses. I LOVE how Archarcharch has looked on the track. My co-worker Marta agrees as well. I will still pick him, because he impresses me the most of the 20 horse field, so far. Honestly, his post position has set him up to fail but that won't deturr me.
Stay Thirsty is still a little too far inside for me. I don't think there is enough speed for him to catch the line at the end with a closing move, and I think he will be blocked off, thus not able to get to a good spot right off the pace.
Pants On Fire, Mucho Macho Man, Shackledford, Midnight Interlude, Soldat, Dialed In and Uncle Mo all have wonderful shots now, with their post positions.
I have to now include Mucho Macho Man and Dialed In due to their great draw spots and legitimate talent to pull off a good break at the start. I am concerned about how Rosie will handle the traffic early with Pants On Fire.
My top three will be Shackleford, Soldat, Uncle Mo with Midnight Interlude and Dialed In working in there. My emotional bets are Archarcharch and Stay Thirsty. If Uncle Mo were to scratch, or if any of those horses just mentioned scratch, I will replace with Mucho Macho Man, Comma to the Top or Pants On Fire.
***As always though, the post parade will hold the best opportunity to see who to bet. I get the best results from watching horses, and break even typically with going only by the numbers. The Kentucky Derby is 20 horse field though, so most numbers won't matter much in this situation.