Post Draw Kentucky Derby Picks 2011

 
Two weeks ago on I made my pre-draw predictions.

My picks were Stay Thirsty, Archarcharch, Soldat, Uncle Mo and Midnight Interlude.

The primary focus on these picks were grinder talents that like wet conditions, since I thought it was going to rain a lot Derby weekend. The weather forecast reveals there will be some rain, but the track will be able to dry out pretty well with nothing substatnial predicted. Thus slop won't be a factor.

Now that I have watched horses work during the week, posted stories on their works and processed a billion photos, I have changed my tune. Two horses that have stood out by Tueseday of this week, previously not on my list, were Shackleford and Pants On Fire.

After the draw finished, I had to re-evaluate how I am going to pick my horses. I LOVE how Archarcharch has looked on the track. My co-worker Marta agrees as well. I will still pick him, because he impresses me the most of the 20 horse field, so far. Honestly, his post position has set him up to fail but that won't deturr me.

Stay Thirsty is still a little too far inside for me. I don't think there is enough speed for him to catch the line at the end with a closing move, and I think he will be blocked off, thus not able to get to a good spot right off the pace.

Pants On Fire, Mucho Macho Man, Shackledford, Midnight Interlude, Soldat, Dialed In and Uncle Mo all have wonderful shots now, with their post positions.

I have to now include Mucho Macho Man and Dialed In due to their great draw spots and legitimate talent to pull off a good break at the start. I am concerned about how Rosie will handle the traffic early with Pants On Fire.

My top three will be Shackleford, Soldat, Uncle Mo with Midnight Interlude and Dialed In working in there. My emotional bets are Archarcharch and Stay Thirsty. If Uncle Mo were to scratch, or if any of those horses just mentioned scratch, I will replace with Mucho Macho Man, Comma to the Top or Pants On Fire.

***As always though, the post parade will hold the best opportunity to see who to bet. I get the best results from watching horses, and break even typically with going only by the numbers. The Kentucky Derby is 20 horse field though, so most numbers won't matter much in this situation.

7 Comments

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Gardner

I'm scared of C. Borel breaking from the three hole.   The only time he didn't win the Derby in the last four years is when he broke wide (Denis of Cork in post 16).   Even then he hit the board.

Please nobody say his horse isn't good enough to win.  We all thought the same about MTB.      

05 May 2011 11:41 AM
Householder

Comma to the Top certainly is a lot scrappier than the other cheap speed.  He's been on 5 different surfaces and was in front 10 of 13 times at the second call with quick half mile splits from 44 and change to 47 1/5th.  The only thing that got to him was some real grade 1 speed to soften him up a bit.  I don't see that here.  I'm not sure he has a chance to wonder home 4th with the additional 1/8th.  Next stop Breeder's Cup Dirt or Turf Mile?  

05 May 2011 12:29 PM
aspradling

Gardner: That is a very interesting point, the horse he is on...I am not crazy about...but then again, as you said, MTB was unexpected...BUT MTB did well in Canada to his credit, prior to Derby.

Householder: Yeah, Comma to the Top is to round out a superfecta if one of the horses I really like defect. He reminds me of Archarcharch in grit, but not as much tactics.

05 May 2011 3:42 PM
IOWay

Where are all of the guarantees of who will win like I have been reading all winter?  It looks to me like if the Irish horse is live he will run off with this.  There just is not much left when you look at horses that look like they can make the distance and who got decent post draws.  I hope Soldat is back since I have $50 on him at 18-1 in Future 1.  It looks to me like the horses that can get the distance based on their breeding are Master Of Hounds, Animal Kingdom, Midnight Interlude, Arch x 3, Brilliant Speed and Stay Thirsty.  I would like to feel some confidence about Stay Thirsty but an 89 Best Beyer is hard to accept and Brilliant Speed's 93 is hard to be excited about.  My 5 horse super box:  Master of Hounds, Midnight Interlude, Soldat, Pants om Fire and Archarcharch.

05 May 2011 9:06 PM
UncleStosh

When 2 days before the Kentucky Derby you admit that your horse is not 100%, you're supposed to skip the race Mike Repole. Plenty of other great races to be won. Shoot for having your horse running well enough in October for the Classic. I think Uncle Mo is an easy bet against. Add one of the longshots instead.

06 May 2011 12:16 AM
keenelandcat

Comma at the Top leading as they come into the turn for home.  Archarcharch & Midnight Interlude finishing 1-2.  Not sure which one I would single, I might just have to box them.

06 May 2011 1:50 AM
Greg J.

Adam,

I am sticking with my top five, they are:

Uncle Mo (if he goes, we will find out shortly!)

Dialed In

Decisive Moment

Brilliant Speed

and Pants on Fire!

My best wager of Derby day is Little Mike and Doubles Partner in the Woodford Reserve as my stone cold exacta :)

06 May 2011 8:03 AM

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