By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
Japan is rising to
prominence at the Breeders' Cup. The country picked up its first two Breeders'
Cup wins in 2021 and is fielding its largest contingent of contenders thus far
for 2024: 19 horses, including six two-year-olds pre-entered in four different
races.
Japan hasn't found success
yet from limited starters in the Breeders' Cup juvenile races. But that may
change this year, because the Japanese juveniles bring serious talent to the
table.
Let's review their
credentials:
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G1)
Ecoro Sieg
Speed is the name of the
game for Ecoro Sieg. A pacesetting son of Twirling Candy, Ecoro Sieg is unbeaten
in two starts sprinting 1,200 meters (about six furlongs) on grass in Japan,
and his winning times have been eye-catching.
Ecoro Sieg debuted on Aug.
17 in a race for first-time starters at Niigata. Facing 17 rivals, he dashed to
the lead under jockey Christophe Lemaire and never looked back, clocking his
final 600 meters (about three furlongs) in a quick 34.6 seconds to win by five
lengths in 1:08.9, just missing the juvenile course record of 1:08.7 set back
in 2002.
Not satisfied to merely
chase course records, Ecoro Sieg smashed a record in his second start. Tackling
the Canna S. at Nakayama, Ecoro Sieg set fractions of :21.8 and :43.80 on his
way to victory by 2 1/2 lengths in 1:07.2, obliterating the previous record of
1:07.8 set in 2001.
Ecoro Sieg is clearly a
special young runner with a bright future. Don't be shocked if he outsprints
all comers in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1)
American Bikini
If American Bikini were a
colt, I would be hyping her credentials as a 2025 Kentucky Derby (G1) threat.
That's how much talent she's shown to date.
A daughter of Triple Crown
winner American Pharoah out of Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) winner Paris
Lights, American Bikini has competed exclusively against males. In her debut
sprinting 1,200 meters at Kyoto, she finished second against Happy Man. Since
then, she's been unstoppable.
American Bikini's second
start yielded a seven-length romp in a maiden race sprinting 1,000 meters (about
five furlongs) at Kokura. She carved out the pace on her way to a winning time
of :57.2, breaking the juvenile track record of :57.7 set in 2008.
Stepping up in class for the
Yamaboshi Sho (an allowance) racing 1,400 meters (about seven furlongs) at
Chukyo proved to be no obstacle. Again, American Bikini set the pace. Again,
she dominated, winning by 2 1/2 lengths over a field including Happy Man. Her
winning time of 1:23.6 matched the juvenile track record set in 2020.
In terms of Beyer Speed
Figures, this year's U.S.-based Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies candidates haven't
been running especially fast. American Bikini may have come of age in the
perfect year to ship abroad and snatch the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies
trophy.
Otomena Shacho
Some bettors may underestimate
Otomena Shacho because she finished seven lengths behind American Bikini when
the latter broke her maiden at Kokura. But that could prove to be a mistake.
Otomena Shacho followed up
that defeat with a maiden victory of her own. Heavily favored to win a
1,200-meter maiden race over a muddy track at Chukyo, Otomena Shacho set the
pace and romped by five lengths in 1:10.7, breaking the previous juvenile track
record of 1:11.1 set in 2021.
A daughter of champion
sprinter Speightstown out of a mare by two-time Horse of the Year Curlin,
Otomena Shacho has the pedigree to handle stretching out over 1 1/16 miles. A
top-three finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies isn't out of the
question.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1)
Ecoro Azel
Ecoro Azel looks like one of
the longer shots among the Japanese contingent. While he won his debut
sprinting 1,200 meters at Niigata by 2 1/2 lengths, he followed up with a
fifth-place finish (beaten 6 1/4 lengths) against American Bikini in the
Yamaboshi Sho. The son of speedy sprinter Shancelot may need a step forward to
challenge against this deep Breeders' Cup Juvenile field.
Shin Believe
Shin Believe has only run
once, but he delivered on expectations. Favored to win a race for first-time
starters over 1,800 meters (about 1 1/8 miles) at Niigata, Shin Believe proved
sufficiently fit to track the pace and win by five lengths in 1:54.7.
At first glance, that time
might seem slow. But it's actually respectable for a juvenile running long over
one of Japan's relatively slow dirt surfaces. The juvenile track record for 1,800
meters at Niigata is 1:53.0.
Shin Believe is eligible to improve
off his debut, so don't count the son of Constitution out of the mix as a live
longshot in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1)
Satono Carnaval
Talented? Check.
Accomplished? Check. It's hard to predict how Satono Carnaval will stack up
against the always-formidable European raiders in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile
Turf, but there's no doubt the son of Japanese sensation Kitasan Black is a
promising colt.
Satono Carnaval got started
in a 1,400-meter grass dash for first-time starters at Tokyo. The result? A
seven-length romp against nine rivals. Satono Carnaval raced in midfield early
on before rocketing his final 600 meters in :34.0 (the fastest split in the
field by a full second) to record a winning time of 1:23.6.
Satono Carnaval subsequently
stepped up in class for the 1,200-meter Hakodate Nisai (G3) at Hakodate. He had
to work harder than in his debut, but by running the final 600 meters in :34.8,
he chased down the pacesetter to prevail by 1 1/4 lengths in 1:09.2.
Stretching out over one mile
for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf is an obvious obstacle for Satono Carnaval,
but his pedigree suggests the added distance won't be an issue, and there's a
chance he'll factor at a price in his first start outside Japan.
Now it's your turn! Which of
these Japanese juveniles do you plan on betting?
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
