Derby May Care

Your task is simple. I want your Overall pick for the WINNER of the Kentucky Derby 136 and tell me why. Then I want who will be second and third. Finally, who is your sentimental pick for the race, unless you are Dray and choose the chalk =)

 Overall pick:
Lookin at Lucky
Comment: Derby has been on Baffert’s mind with this colt since last summer. - Steve Haskin


Caption: Lookin At Lucky
All Photos in this post are by Anne M. Eberhardt.

Underneath:
Ice Box, Dean's Kitten


Caption: Ice Box

Sentimental:
Eskendereya, Line of David


Caption: Eskendereya

Could it be a California revenge sort of year?
Sidney’s Candy will provide revenge for Chocolate Candy and the other synthetic athletes coming to the big dirty dance.


Caption: Sidney's Candy

Pletcher's Fate:
Eskendereya
Super Saver
Mission Impazible
Interactif
Rule
Discreetly Mine

On the Wings:
Devil May Care (KY)
Devil may care likes the longer distances, ran on dirt at Belmont, is 3-0-0 and has only two things to worry about in this race. Boys and distance. So what is my reaction? The devil isn't going to care, she gets a good run and hits the board finishing fourth.
Aikenite


Caption: Devil May Care

My proposal is that they create a future wager named "the Pletcher bet" where you can bet on all of his horses. It is fate this year, destiny for him to win. If he can't this year, I question if he ever will. Of course each race is a new race.

I do realize that me saying this is Pletcher's year to win contradicts my Lookin At Lucky pick to win. I will be betting one way with the Pletcher angle, but primarily with my Lookin At Lucky angle.

Jason Shandler's take on Pletcher...
 

---

On The Pamplemousse:

The Brink by Jay Hovdey
Canani says the colt has responded to therapies and is getting close to a return to training.

 

 

28 Comments

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Citation

My overall pick in the Derby is Sidney's Candy, because he has won three preps this year, is the best frontrunner, and is by Candy Ride and out of a Storm Cat mare. I pick Eskendereya for second and Noble's Promise if he goes for third. My sentimental picks are the aforementioned Sidney's Candy and Stately Victor because he is by Ghostzapper.

21 Apr 2010 4:48 PM
papillon

Win: Rule, by a nose

Place: Devil May Care, if she runs; if not, then Ice Box, closing fast

Show: Super Saver, tiring, by daylight both to second place and to fourth place

Fourth: Lookin at Lucky, several lengths ahead of the field

Tenth: Eskendereya

Sentimental Pick: Devil May Care, if she runs; if not, Lookin at lucky because he's  tough, scrappy horse who is impossible not to like I just don't think he's fast enough

21 Apr 2010 6:40 PM
Freetex

I knew this was coming so I am giving my first reaction picks.

Sidney's Candy is my overall pick because he is the speed of the speed. His stamina on his Granddam's side also gives credence.  Lookin at Lucky will be second just because he's not so lucky, and third will be Ice Box because he is a deep closer.  

My sentimental picks are Rule because he needs to be in front and is a fighter and Stately Victor because he will have Alan Garcia and because he is by Ghostzapper.  

I'm sure Eskendereya will blow all this speculation out of the water.

21 Apr 2010 6:52 PM
Slew

Stately Victor was the first horse to "wow" me this season.  With terrible pp's, he looks great, is well bred, knows how to stay under cover in a mob, and knows how to work his way through the crowd, and I think he can get 12f easily.  Endorsement to place, LAL to show.  Sentimentally, I'd really like Jackson Bend and Dublin to do well.... because they both try so hard.

21 Apr 2010 6:58 PM
Kevin

Win: Lookin at Lucky-he has the breeding, stamina, and his dosage numbers fit the bill. Most important he has been tested and will deal with the large field better then the others.

Place: Dublin- he has the breeding, stamina, and his dosage numbers also fit. Lukas is a plus for him, but I see him falling short by a head in taking it all. (His revenge will come in the Belmont Stakes-ending the Triple Crown hope this year for the "Lucky")

Third: Nobles Promise if he goes, with Setsuko and Awesome Act in a third and forth Box.  If I go deep in a super I'll run the Pletcher family for forth/third on a key reverse with the top three.

Really I find it hard to separate Lucky and Dublin, my heavy bet will be the exacta box, leaning more on Lucky on top.

Best to all, may we enjoy a good, safe Derby,

Kevin        

21 Apr 2010 8:12 PM
Sammi P

Overall is Sidney's Candy. He is a power house, 3-3 this year, Joe is confident he can rate, then flies home with something left. Second I'm going to go long shot here and say Devil May Care if she gets in. Sh's classy and looks like a colt, distance will do her good to I think. Then it will be Esky for third (but not far from Devil)

21 Apr 2010 8:35 PM
shammy

Stately Victor as my overall pick--he has the right running style and pedigree, hopefully has not peaked yet, and from his one 2 year old race appears to like dirt.  Dublin for second, Sidney's Candy third.  Sentimental picks--Dublin, Lookin at Lucky, Endorsement, and Conveyance.  I wish Caracortado made the field.  He was going to be my sentimental favorite.

21 Apr 2010 8:39 PM
papillon

oops forgot to say why--

Win: Rule, by a nose, because the early pace is going to be very fast and he has shown repeatedly that a sub 1:11 opening 6 furlongs is not difficult for him, plus being on the front from the get go will keep him out of trouble

Place: Devil May Care, if she runs, because she will be one of the only stalkers in the race who has shown she can win coming off of a sub 1:11 opening 6 furlongs

Otherwise, Ice box, because he's a pure closer and the pace is going to set him up very well, and he's shown he can close very strongly off of a sub 1:11 opening 6f--however, he's not a tiny little bird with Calvin Borel to guide him up the rail, so he'll likely have to go very wide, which will cost him the win

Show: Super Saver, because I think he'll be challenging Rule for the lead for much of the race, but tire the sooner of the two, partly due to the fact that he's had less time to recover from a hard race, and partly because I think Rule is the better horse. However, I think the pace will have cooked just about everybody else sufficiently to allow Super Saver to hang on for third, by daylight in both directions.

4th Looking for Lucky because he's always in he mix at the end, I just don't think he'll have enough speed to catch the top three--he'll be about a length and half to Super Saver, with the field well behind him.

10th Eskendereya, because he's slow, has never had to cope with early speed like he will face on May 1st, which will freak him out just like it did Curlin, and because he can't handle traffic and bumping. Plus, the Derby don't seem to favor favorite so much....

Sentimental choice: Devil May Care because she's a she and that is always something special. Otherwise Lookin For Lucky because he's kind of like the Charlie Brown of horses.

21 Apr 2010 9:00 PM
TJLuvsTizs

With the caveat that post positions will affect my betting on derby day, here are my early picks:

Overall: Sidney's Candy- Has done nothing wrong as a 3 YO and has beaten many top 3 YO's.

Second- Lookin at Lucky

Third- Ice Box

Sentimental pick: American Lion as I have watched every single race of his including the works posted by the connections on youtube.  Could make a lot of people big money, and cost millions others more!

21 Apr 2010 10:01 PM
Pedigree Shelly

       From a handicapping standpoint , Eskendereya seems like the logical choice ! I also like Super Saver , Dublin ,LAL and Stately Victor ! But my sentimental choice is Ice Box ! I've followed his sire Pulpit , since his mswt win at Gulfsteam Park in 1997 !

21 Apr 2010 11:35 PM
eyetogo

1st-Sidney's Candy, horse is improving and has had fast fractions coming home despite front running. 2nd Dublin, The grinder is due and won't be bothered by traffic.  3rd Looking at Lucky, Baffert likes him, he won't be bothered by the crowd and he can overcome traffic to hit the board.  Sentimental Rule, he was the 1st horse I put on my list of 20 January 1.

21 Apr 2010 11:36 PM
Dona

If she runs, Devil May Care will win. She has high cruising speed and the distance is not a factor for her. Love Stately Victor because of his pedigree. Speed over indurance  and he should love the distance. Sentimental pick would be Sidneys Candy. My wild card pick would be Line of David. Won on the lead at Santa Anita and won at Oaklawn coming from far off the pace.

1. Devil May Care

2. Stately Victor

3. Sidneys Candy

 or

1. Stately Victor

2. Sidneys Candy

3. Line of David

I think Lookin at Lucky and Eskendereya will be 5th or 6th.

22 Apr 2010 12:52 AM
aspradling

Good stuff everyone! It seems Devil May Care has a lot of sentimental draw, and I don't blame her. I was surprised no one else considered Dean's Kitten.

The picks are good and handicappers would benefit from reading the thoughts of this community.

22 Apr 2010 8:51 AM
draynay

Dean's Kitten ? Who ? The two best horses when you get right down to it are still Noble and LAL. Noble is the one to beat and catch coming home.

22 Apr 2010 10:14 AM
RachelSatterfield

"On The Pamplemousse:

The Brink by Jay Hovdey

Canani says the colt has responded to therapies and is getting close to a return to training."

Oh Yippie!  Finally news on The Pamplemousse.  I was wondering if we'd ever hear from him again.

22 Apr 2010 11:05 AM
aspradling

Do you think Noble is going to be 100% Derby day Dray? I have my doubts. Show me the light. At least we agree on LAL...give me a sentimental favorite =)

22 Apr 2010 11:52 AM
Dave

Win, Eskendereya - best horse all year. Over top Dublin, Aweswome Act and Ice Box. Setimentals are Dublin, local Iowa jock and Paddy O local ownership group.

22 Apr 2010 12:24 PM
Sam

Overall Winner: Eskendereya.  Gorgeous pedigree, gorgeous horse. Absolutely no reason to think he won't put it all out there when it counts.

Awesome Act for 2nd (and a very close second, he's being dismissed too casually) and Sidney's Candy for 3rd.

Sentimental choice would have to be Endorsement.  Enough of the fillies winning classic races! I want a woman trainer to grab one from the good ol' boys. ;^)  Besides, he has a solid enough pedigree and I like his jock as well.

22 Apr 2010 12:51 PM
Irish

Speaking of Pampemousse. I wondered what happened to him.  Glad he is doing better.  Does anyone know what happened to Grazzen.  I never heard anything more about him since he got hurt.

22 Apr 2010 1:06 PM
Dona

I got burned with Dean's Kitten in the Breeders Cup. Nope, can't fool me again! Am glad the Pamplemousse is able to work again. Hopefully, he can get back on the track and show his stuff. Loved him before the Derby along with I want Revenge. I think both names are a hoot.

22 Apr 2010 2:07 PM
Alfeet Alexandra

Winner: Lookin At Lucky. No question there. No other horse in this field has worked so hard to overcome so many bad races.

Second/sentimental pick: Dublin. He has got the speed, but they haven't quite figured out when and where to use it. I say the Derby sees him figure it out pretty well. Also, how could I possible go against an Afleet Alex baby? I want him to avenge his daddy's near (so very near...) loss in his Derby.

22 Apr 2010 3:04 PM
John T

My overall pick is Lookin At Lucky

because the Santa Anita Derby was so muddling you might as well just forget about that race.My second pick is Eskenderya because he has been so convincing in his last two starts,and my third pick is Awesome

Act because he is such a hard knocking colt.My sentimental pick is also Awesome Act because last time out he ran with 3 shoes on and one shoe off.

22 Apr 2010 9:48 PM
Karen

I am suprised no one has come up with this angle--The Legends trifecta, aka Baffert, Lucas, and Zito. Between them, they may have almost as many horses in the Derby as Pletcher. The race could end up a battle between the two major camps, with most of the horses from the two opposing sides getting mugged, with the exception of Devil May Care (no one will mug a filly--too much bad press afterwords).

Win: Sidney's Candy

Place: Devil May Care

Show: Stately Victor

Sentimental: Dublin. Wouldn't it be great to see Lucas in the winner's circle?

24 Apr 2010 1:12 PM
vikingblood22

I'm betting on Backtalk if he gets in; with the recent withdrawals, did he make it to #20?  Tx

25 Apr 2010 8:35 PM
vikingblood22

Just saw that Rule is out but Devil May Care is in so my favorite Backtalk is at #21 on the list. If he gets in he will probably go off at 50:1 and surprise everyone like Guiacamo . . .

26 Apr 2010 12:06 PM
aspradling

Interactif is also in question to run, we are to find out Tuesday.

26 Apr 2010 1:20 PM
Venceremos

Win:  Homeboykris

Place:  Homeboykris

Show:  Homeboykris

Sentimental pick:  Zenyatta

There are so many reasons I think Homeboy will win the Derby that I can't even list them because it would take too long.  Besides, any handicapper worth his salt should know why he'll win.    

28 Apr 2010 2:30 AM
Robin from Maryland

Not to be negative.... but I can eliminate any Pletcher trained horse.  My heart goes out to Sidneys Candy and young Joe-may he finally get his Derby experience.

29 Apr 2010 12:28 PM

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