By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
In many ways, Saturday's $1
million Haskell (G1) at Monmouth Park is shaping up as a rematch of the
Preakness (G1).
Three of the top four finishers
from the Triple Crown's second jewel will battle over 1 1/8 miles in the
Haskell. The group includes Preakness winner #2 Journalism (4-5), who would have swept the Triple Crown if not
for the formidable presence of Sovereignty.
Journalism is a top-tier
talent in the midst of a strong sophomore season. He opened the year with
victories in the San Felipe (G2) and Santa Anita Derby (G1), then sandwiched
runner-up finishes to Sovereignty in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Belmont (G1)
around his heart-pounding Preakness triumph.
In the Preakness, Journalism
had little to no racing room as the field approached the top of the stretch. He
attempted to squeeze through a tiny gap between Clever Again and #8 Goal Oriented (4-1), which led to a
severe bumping match. Despite getting bounced around between rivals, Journalism
forged through, regrouped, and chased down #6
Gosger (9-2) to win by half a length.
Journalism was none the
worse for wear in the Belmont three weeks later, running his typical strong
race to finish second with a 105 Beyer Speed Figure, his fourth triple-digit
number of the year. None of his Haskell rivals have cracked the triple-digit Beyer
plateau this season, so if Journalism brings his A game to Monmouth Park, he'll
be mighty tough to defeat. A series of sharp workouts since the Belmont
(including a bullet six furlongs in 1:12 flat) cements Journalism as the horse
to beat. I won't oppose him.
Just like in the Preakness,
the stiffest challenge to Journalism could come from Gosger. The son of
Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Nyquist has improved by leaps and bounds since his
December debut. In April, he won the Lexington (G3) by two lengths over #1 Bracket Buster (10-1), who has since
dominated Monmouth's Pegasus S. by seven lengths. And in the Preakness, Gosger
opened up a five-length lead in midstretch before Journalism's heroic late rally
stole the show.
Gosger has been freshened
since the Preakness and has posted half a dozen timed workouts in preparation
for the Haskell, including a trio of five-furlong exercises. I anticipate he'll
run as well or better at Monmouth as he did at Pimlico two months ago, making
Gosger my clear second choice behind Journalism.
#4 Burnham Square (5-1)
is bound to be a popular horse in exotic wagers like the trifecta and
superfecta, and for good reason. The late-running gelding has beaten quality
competition in the Blue Grass (G1) and Holy Bull (G3) this year, in addition to
closing for sixth place in the Kentucky Derby. He exits a respectable runner-up
finish (beaten half a length) in a four-horse Matt Winn (G3) field and may get
more pace to work with in the Haskell, setting up a strong showing.
However, I wonder if the
above-mentioned Goal Oriented is a better choice for third place. The lightly
raced colt started his career with two wins from two starts, taking a
six-furlong maiden special weight at Santa Anita and a $125,000 allowance
optional claimer at Churchill Downs. Then came the Preakness, in which Goal
Oriented took some of the worst of the bumping before staying on for fourth
place behind Journalism, Gosger, and Arkansas Derby (G1) winner Sandman.
After taking nearly a month
off from serious training, Goal Oriented returned to the work tab in mid-June.
He's posted four bullet workouts leading up to the Haskell, including five-furlong
moves in :58 3/5, :58 flat, and :59 1/5. He's training like he has upside for
Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, who has compiled an otherworldly 15-9-5-1
record in the Haskell since 2000. That's a 100% in-the-money rate.
I'll count on Goal Oriented
to move forward with a clean trip in the Haskell and contribute another
top-three finish to Baffert's Haskell record.
Bracket Buster couldn't
quite keep pace with Gosger when finishing second in the Lexington, and over a
sloppy track at Churchill Downs he finished seventh behind Goal Oriented in the
latter's $125,000 allowance optional claiming win. But the speedy colt
rebounded over sloppy footing at Monmouth in the Pegasus, dueling for the lead
before powering clear to win easily by seven lengths. Consistency isn't a
strong suit for Bracket Buster, but if one of the favorites misfires, he's
shown enough talent to suggest he can crack the superfecta on his best day.
Selections
1st: Journalism
2nd: Gosger
3rd: Goal Oriented
4th: Burnham Square
5th: Bracket Buster
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the Haskell?
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
