By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
Racing fans are in for a
treat this week. Saratoga is hosting a four-day July 4th Racing Festival from
Thursday through Sunday.
No fewer than 10 stakes
races are on the agenda, including the Belmont Derby (G1) and Belmont Oaks
(G1). Let's handicap both races:
Friday: Belmont Derby (G1)
The Independence Day feature
at Saratoga is the 1 1/8-mile Belmont Derby. Eight horses have entered, though
#8 Flying Mohawk (6-1) will scratch after undergoing emergency colic surgery.
There's very little pace
entered in the Belmont Derby. Six of the seven expected starters have shown
little to no interest in racing up front. The lone exception is #1 Tank (12-1), a tried-and-true speed
horse with a shot to steal the Belmont Derby on the front end.
Tank has been in hot form on
grass this year. He started the season with a pacesetting runner-up finish in a
$75,000 allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream Park, where he was beaten only
1 1/4 lengths by the Grade 1-placed Dream On, who has since won the Penn Mile
(G3).
Following a poor showing on
synthetic, Tank returned to turf with pace-tracking wins in the Equistaff Sophomore
Turf S. at Tampa Bay Downs and the English Channel S. at Gulfstream Park. Most
recently, he escaped with an easy lead in Gulfstream's 1 1/16-mile Not Surprising
S., in which he clocked his final five-sixteenths of a mile in :29.73 to win by
three lengths in 1:39.93.
Stepping up in class is a
meaningful challenge for Tank, but if he shakes loose up front and posts splits
of :24, :49, and 1:14, he may prove impossible to catch. At 12-1, I'm willing
to beat Tank can spring the upset.
#5 Test Score (4-1),
winner of the Transylvania (G3) and runner-up in the American Turf (G1), has a
bit more tactical speed than some of the other Belmont Derby entrants and may
find himself in the best position to challenge Tank down the Saratoga
homestretch. But he finished only a nose better than deep-closing #4 New Century (3-1) over a
rain-dampened turf course in the American Turf, and the latter colt—who won the
Summer (G1) at Woodbine last year—may step forward if he encounters firm turf
at Saratoga.
#3 Luther (6-1)
is making his North American debut after a couple of tries against top-tier competition
in France. He was beaten only 1 1/4 lengths by Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1)
winner Henri Matisse when fourth in the Poule d'Essai des Poulains (G1) and
shouldn't be excluded from Belmont Derby trifecta tickets.
Saturday: Belmont Oaks (G1)
Compared to some years, the Belmont
Oaks has come up a bit light. The 1 1/8-mile race has drawn only seven
entrants, none of them Grade 1 winners and none of them European shippers. This
means there's a clear path for #7
Nitrogen (4-5) to prevail as a short-priced favorite.
Although Nitrogen failed to
win in three starts as a juvenile, she finished third in both the Breeders' Cup
Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) and Natalma (G1), demonstrating her ability to
compete at a high level.
Nitrogen has since developed
into an unbeatable sophomore. She's 5-for-5 in 2025, rattling off victories in
the Ginger Brew S., Florida Oaks (G3), Appalachian (G2), Edgewood (G2), and
Wonder Again (G3). She's prevailed by increasingly large margins, and her
Edgewood triumph came by a decisive 3 1/2 lengths over Lush Lips, who dominated
the Tepin S. in her next start.
Nitrogen has some tactical
speed and figures to work out a favorable trip in the Belmont Oaks, possibly
settling behind #2 Opulent Restraint (10-1)
and #3 Totally Justified (6-1) in
third place. From there, I anticipate she'll pounce to the lead when called
upon and never look back.
For second place, I prefer
the chances of longshot #6 May Day Ready
(10-1). Her form has been muddied by distant defeats in the Hanshin
Juvenile Fillies (G1) in Japan and the Wonder Again on dirt. But she opened her
career with three straight wins, including a triumph in the Jessamine (G2), and
she finished one length ahead of Nitrogen when second in the Breeders' Cup
Juvenile Fillies Turf. Returning to grass for her second start of the season should
help May Day Ready bounce back with a big effort.
#5 Fionn (5-1)
is my third choice. She's won four of her last five starts on grass, most
recently launching a big rally to take the Regret (G3) at Churchill Downs. Her
lone defeat this year came when third to Nitrogen in the Appalachian.
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the Belmont Derby and Belmont Oaks?
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
