By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
A stellar field has turned
out to contest Saturday's $1 million Stephen Foster (G1) at Churchill Downs. It
might be the best group of horses assembled for any U.S. horse race so far this
year.
Six of the seven entrants
are millionaires. The total earnings of the entire field stands at a
spectacular $26,006,361. Four of the entrants are Grade 1 winners, one is a
Kentucky Derby (G1) winner, and one is a champion.
That said, some of the most
accomplished entrants have possible chinks in their armor.
#4 Sierra Leone (5-2)
is the morning line favorite. The champion three-year-old male of 2024 finished
second by a nose to #5 Mystik Dan (3-1)
in the Kentucky Derby, but rebounded at the end of the year to beat a strong
field in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1).
The challenge for Sierra
Leone is the fact he's a deep closer. Through much of his sophomore season, he
settled for minor awards when facing top-tier competition. When he rallied from
11th place to win the Breeders' Cup Classic, he benefited from closing into
intense fractions of :22.43, :44.96, and 1:09.43 that compromised runner-up
Fierceness and third-place finisher Forever Young, who were racing about a
dozen lengths closer to the pace after half a mile.
Sierra Leone has only run
once this year. While trying to close from last place against a decent, but
hardly destructive pace in the New Orleans Classic (G2), he settled for third
place. Since the Stephen Foster field isn't stuffed with speed on paper, I'm
concerned Sierra Leone will find himself at a tactical disadvantage and again
settle for second or third place.
Some bettors will opt to
support Mystik Dan, whose 3-for-4 record at Churchill Downs includes his
above-mentioned triumph over Sierra Leone in the Kentucky Derby. But in the
Derby, Mystik Dan benefited from a perfect ground-saving trip that gave him an
advantage over the wide-rallying Sierra Leone and also third-place finisher
Forever Young.
Following a five-race losing
streak, Mystik Dan bounced back to form in the Blame (G3) at Churchill Downs
last month, winning by 1 1/4 lengths. But he wasn't facing the toughest field,
and he again benefited from a ground-saving trip. He may need another
picture-perfect journey to come out on top while returning to the Grade 1 ranks
in the Stephen Foster.
#2 Mindframe (7-2)
could potentially challenge for favoritism after opening his 2025 campaign with
triumphs in the one-mile Gulfstream Park Mile (G2) and seven-furlong Churchill
Downs (G1). But those were one-turn races, and it's worth noting Mindframe is
unbeaten in three starts around one turn. Going two turns, he's 1-for-3, with
his lone victory coming in a 1 1/16-mile $100,000 allowance optional claimer in
which he set extremely slow pace fractions.
Granted, Mindframe has run
well against tough competition around two turns. He finished second (ahead of
Sierra Leone) in the 1 1/4-mile Belmont (G1) and second again in the 1 1/8-mile
Haskell (G1). But in both those races, he flattened out after leading in
mistretch. While it's too early to say for certain, I wonder if—perhaps—Mindframe
is a one-turn horse at heart.
#6 Hit Show (9-2)
exits a career-best win in the Dubai World Cup (G1), but his task was made
easier by the fact heavy favorite and Saudi Cup (G1) winner Forever Young ran
below form. Hit Show prevailed by half a length over Mixto, the 11th-place
finisher from the 2024 Breeders' Cup Classic. In the U.S., Hit Show has proven
to be a better fit for the Grade 2/Grade 3 level than Grade 1 company, so he
may find the Stephen Foster to be a tougher spot than the Dubai World Cup.
Thus, I'm left with #1 First Mission (4-1) as my choice to upset the Stephen
Foster. There's some risk here since First Mission hasn't cracked the trifecta
in three Grade 1 tries, but on his best day the five-year-old Godolphin
homebred is fast enough to compete at this level.
Consistency isn't a strong
suit for First Mission. He's misfired on some high-profile occasions. Last
year, he finished ninth at 5-2 odds in the Pegasus World Cup (G1) and fourth as
an odds-on favorite in the Stephen Foster. But in between those defeats, he
trounced the Essex H. (G3) by five lengths and the Alysheba (G2) by four
lengths, with the latter victory coming at Churchill Downs.
First Mission couldn't quite
get the job done in his 2025 debut, finishing third by a neck against Alexander
Helios and Banishing in the Razorback H. (G3). But then he turned around and
thrashed those rivals in the Oaklawn H. (G2), rating in fourth place before
taking over to score by two lengths with a powerful 109 Beyer Speed Figure.
Historically, when First
Mission gets hot, he strings multiple victories together. I view the Oaklawn H.
as a sign that First Mission is back to his best and ready for another peak
performance. He's been freshened for two months and enters off a sharp series
of five-furlong workouts at Churchill Downs, so I don't see an obvious reason
to think he'll misfire.
Since there isn't much pace
in this Stephen Foster field, I believe First Mission is poised to work out a
perfect trip stalking a modest tempo. If Hollywood Gold Cup (G2) winner #3 Skippylongstocking (6-1) bids for
the lead (he's perhaps the likeliest pacesetter), First Mission can take up the
chase in second place and perhaps even shift outside for a clear run. From there,
he'll have every chance to repeat his 109 Beyer and hold off more heralded
rivals in the Churchill Downs homestretch.
Selections
1st: First Mission
2nd: Sierra Leone
3rd: Mindframe
4th: Mystik Dan
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the Stephen Foster?
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
