By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
The weather could
potentially have an impact on two graded stakes taking place over the Saratoga
turf course this Saturday.
There's potential for rain
at Saratoga this week, so we'll keep in mind the possibility that the graded
stakes will take place over less-than-firm turf.
Bowling Green (G2)
The first of the graded
stakes is the Bowling Green for older horses racing 1 3/8 miles over the inner
turf. Regardless of course condition, #7
Far Bridge (6-5) is my choice to prevail.
Unlocking Winners readers
know I've been a fan of Far Bridge since he won his January 2023 debut over
future Grade 1 winner Carl Spackler. In the 2 1/2 years since, he's developed
into a high-level grass competitor over a variety of distances and course
conditions. He's won the 1 1/4-mile Belmont Derby (G1), 1 1/2-mile Sword Dancer
(G1), and 1 1/2-mile Pan American (G3) on firm turf plus the 1 1/2-mile Joe
Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) and 1 3/8-mile Man o' War (G2) over good turf.
Far Bridge started 2025 with
his Pan American and Man o' War triumphs. Then he cut back to 1 1/8 miles over
good turf for the Manhattan (G1) at Saratoga, where he finished third by a neck
over a distance shorter than his best.
Stretching back out over 1
3/8 miles for the Bowling Green should suit Far Bridge to perfection. Since
last summer, he's shown improved tactical speed, and that should allow him to
work out a favorable forwardly placed trip. I anticipate he'll deliver a
comfortable victory over the multiple Grade 1-placed #5 Webslinger (7-2) and the stoutly bred #2 El Rezeen (8-1), whose lone stakes appearance thus far yielded a
close third in the 2024 Jockey Club Derby (G3) racing 1 3/8 miles.
El Rezeen demonstrated ample
stamina prior to the Jockey Club Derby, winning a 1 1/2-mile maiden special
weight and a 1 3/8-mile allowance at Saratoga. Unsurprisingly, he came up short
when cutting back to 1 1/16 miles for his 2025 debut, finishing second in a
Keeneland allowance. This son of English Channel out of a Kitten's Joy mare
should relish stretching back out over 1 3/8 miles for his second run of the
season.
Diana (G1)
Whereas I believe Far Bridge
will win the Bowling Green regardless of course condition, I can see rain influencing
who wins the 1 1/8-mile Diana for fillies and mares.
Let's review the conditions
most suitable for each of the six entrants:
#1 She Feels Pretty (1-1):
The heavy favorite has won the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) and American
Oaks (G1) on firm turf, the Natalma (G1) over good going, and the New York (G1)
on yielding turf. She's clearly a versatile filly, though her best performances
have come over firm turf, and she had to work very hard to win the New York by
half a length last month. If significant rain falls and the Saratoga turf is
reduced to yielding for the Diana, She Feels Pretty could prove vulnerable.
Especially if she gets buried inside while breaking from the rail—any delay in
launching her rally over yielding turf could make it difficult for She Feels
Pretty to catch up.
#2 Choisya (8-1):
Choisya doesn't mind a little give in the ground, as she demonstrated when
taking the Jenny Wiley (G1) by half a length over good turf at Keeneland. She tracked
the pace that day, then kicked on to defeat Excellent Truth by half a length.
However, Choisya faltered when trying yielding turf in the Just a Game (G1)
last time out, finishing a dull seventh behind Dynamic Pricing and Excellent
Truth. Her form in Europe last year likewise hints that Choisya doesn't care
for overly soft turf.
#3 Lady Claypoole (20-1):
Winner of the Santa Ana (G3) over good ground, Lady Claypoole has also run well
over firm turf, winning multiple allowances and finishing second in the Gamely
(G1).
#4 Excellent Truth (5-2):
Formerly based in France, Excellent Truth has repeatedly shown she doesn't mind
a damp course. Her first two starts in the U.S. yielded close seconds in the
Jenny Wiley (over good turf) and the Just a Game (over yielding ground). The
question is, what will happen if rain skips over Saratoga and the course is
firm for the Diana? There's a chance Excellent Truth could produce a stronger
turn-of-foot in her first start over a firm U.S. turf course. Or, she could run
below her best.
#5 Dynamic Pricing (9-2):
Dynamic Pricing has won the Just a Game and Edgewood (G2) over yielding turf
and the Beaugay (G3) over good grass, so this stretch-running four-year-old is
a force to reckon with over any ground.
#6 Be Your Best (6-1):
Firm turf is a strong suit for Be Your Best, who recently led all the way to
win the Gamely by 2 3/4 lengths. She's struggled over damp ground, most notably
tiring to finish eighth over good turf in the Jenny Wiley two starts back. Any
meaningful rainfall at Saratoga could compromise Be Your Best's chances.
Taking all of these factors
together, I'll hedge my Diana selection a bit. If the course is firm or good, I'll
count on She Feels Pretty to unleash her terrific turn-of-foot to record a
fifth straight victory. However, if the course comes up yielding or soft, I
think there's a chance Excellent Truth will outkick She Feels Pretty in the
drive.
Excellent Truth ran into
trouble when beaten only half a length by Choisya in the Jenny Wiley, and against
this small Diana field, Excellent Truth has every chance to save ground and
launch a winning rally under hot jockey Flavien Prat.
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the Diana?
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
