Gomez back in Chicago for Futurity

Although I've lived in Lexington for seven years now, I still regularly handicap the races back in sweet home Chicago. In fact, Arlington has been my best track this summer from a wagering standpoint (surprisingly followed by Del Mar).

Going over Saturday's Arlington card, which features the Arlington-Washington Futurity (G3) and the Arlington-Washington Lassie (G3), I noticed Garrett Gomez is flying in to ride in both two-year-old races. Gomez is named on Pataky Kid, a Rockport Harbor colt trained by Tom Proctor for Swifty Farms, in the Futurity.

And he's on Custody, a Broken Vow filly trained by Al Stall for Adele Dilschneider (the connections on 2010 Breeders' Cup Classic winner Blame), in the Lassie. Both races are one mile on the Polytrack.

According to Marcus Hersh of DRF, Pataky Kid is the primary reason for Gomez' trip. Pataky Kid debuted at Churchill on July 1 and finished a distant, troubled third behind Sky Captain. Pataky Kid returned to break his maiden going seven furlongs at Arlington in a nice looking effort that saw him make a 5-wide move and finish with good energy. https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/videos/race-replays/USA/AP/2012/8/9/8/race-8

The second and third-place finishers (Tulira Castle and Stay In Dixie) returned to win, Pataky Kid reportedly has been working well, and the steam is building. He is going to get bet down quite a bit from that 9-2 morning line.

I slightly prefer the 2-1 morning line favorite Muppet Man, undefeated in two starts incuding a strong win in the local prep. I love how he pressed a fast pace and still had more when jockey Jeffrey Sanchez pushed the button in the Meadowlake Stakes. https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/videos/race-replays/USA/AP/2012/8/4/9/meadowlake-s

If the public sides against Muppet Man and he drifts up to 5-2 or more, I will double down on him.

The other two horses worth considering for the win in the Futurity are Glenco Kid, who flew home in his maiden win but will face a much quicker pace here, and Mylute, who is yet to get a clean trip in three starts but has run well. At 10-1 on the morning line, I'll be using Glenco Kid in the pick4/pick5 and underneath in the ex/tri/super.

Gomez' mount in the Lassie (which drew a field of 14) is listed at 12-1. It's not hard to imagine her liking added distance off of this nice debut: https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/videos/race-replays/USA/AP/2012/7/26/6/race-6 

Other races of interest this week for me include the Super Derby at Louisiana Downs (although the 3yo male division is getting depressing), the Presque Isle Masters (Groupie Doll), and opening day at Kentucky Downs (which put together a nice Saturday card).

Good luck this weekend.

53 Comments

Leave a Comment:

Dr Drunkinbum

The Super Derby is wide open in a shockingly weak 500k race with the edge on paper going to Rousing Sermon and Bourbon Courage. With no monsters in here I'd be looking for the best looking and take a stab. I'm determined not to get involved with the 2yos this early this time. Early Derby Fever has taken a toll the last few years. I'll be checking out Belmont tomorrow without any picks. The Bowling Green is interesting with Brujo's first on turf, 2nd in the U.S., against Air Support, Newsdad, and Brilliant Speed. What track(s) are you playing jayjay?

07 Sep 2012 11:21 PM
Mary Zinke

Presque Isle Downs Masters:

Groupie Doll to win, even with the layoff and hock problem. She's going after an Eclipse. Easily the best here if all's well, and I have to figure that it is. Holiday for Kitten. Those Kitten's Joys, and going from turf to synthetic;she's been coming back nicely. Plus she's won for me before. Atlantic Hurricane--I think she might be better on awt than turf. Fast filly; Salty Strike--in form, Salix free wins, and just made my picks ahead of Ariana D. 7,6,2,12

Super Derby: Good luck to Rousing Sermon.  Okay, now that the well wishes are done, I don't know this track, but it seems to be tough on fast front runners, but maybe Blueskies can slow things down a bit. Not so great for closers, either. The one that won in '07,Going Ballistic, was also a turf horse. From how he ran in his last two races, Sermon should be closer up this time. I kinda like the 6 that's been improving and has had faster works than are usual for that trainer, but Master Rick may give up if headed, so he's in, but for fourth.  3,8/3,8,9/2,3,4,8,9/2-9

Does anyone like the 1?

08 Sep 2012 12:10 AM
JayJay

Pete : I like Arlington as well, mostly because they have .50 trifectas and pays decent.  Who's your longshot jockey there?  I keep an eye on anything Thornton and Torres, I've gotten them at 10-1 or higher a few times.

Dr. D : I agree about the Super Derby, it's a sad sad thing that a 500K derby has a field of 2nd stringers.  Blues has definitely stepped up and I don't see anyone posing any threat.  As I posted in the previous blog, this could turn out to be a match race between the two, Blues and FLF.  I've lost so much money on Rousing Sermon, everytime, I think he'll have that big closing late kick but he always comes up short. I'll let him beat me in my .50 P5 and P4 :

09th :  9

10th :  2, 3, 9

11th :  6, 8, 12

12th :  1,2

13th :  1

$18.00 total bet ($9 P5 / $9 P4)

At Arlington, I'll start with a $5 DD with 2,3 in the 1st to the 3 in the 2nd.  I'll be watching Brujo's race against Air Support, sounds like a really exciting race.

Good luck Doc and to everyone playing with real money tomorrow!

08 Sep 2012 1:17 AM
Pete Denk

JayJay-

Yeah, Tim Thornton is ok. Otherwise I don't trust anyone in that colony outside of Torres and ET Baird!

Agreed on the minimums. 50-cent tris, p4 and p5 are a great bargain and pay very well at AP.

08 Sep 2012 9:25 AM
Footlick

Actually Albarado has made me good money this meet, even though he isn't having the best meet.  Have caught many nice playoffs as he seems to be overlooked this year.

08 Sep 2012 1:16 PM
Pedigree Ann

I was a Rousing Sermon fan after the Hollywood winter meet last year, but he hasn't shown much of anything on real dirt, except against fellow Calbreds. Fly Lexis Fly pulled in his first US start, also his first Poly start; all Peruvian starts on 'arena'=sand/dirt (so-called, because Roman and later arenas had sand floors); still a puzzle. In the Race of the Day contest, I picked Key Donation; he hasn't faced this sort before, but has done all asked of him except turf and sprint, neither of which are applicable in this spot. Winner over the track helps, too. Remember Free Spirit's Joy, who beat Olympio in '91? Local horse, won the Prelude going in.

Boy, has this race gone downhill in the last 10 years. A lot it due to trainers and their 'spacing races' for stakes horses baloney, but dropping it from 10f (a real Derby) down to 9f hasn't helped, either. Every major G1 stakes race that is cut in distance from 10f to 9f has seen a decline in grade and importance - Suburban H, Meadowlands Cup, Gulfstream Park H, Monmouth H (under its various aliases), Dwyer H, Swaps S - the list is sad to read.

08 Sep 2012 1:28 PM
Pete Denk

Footlick, u r right. Albarado has been solid at AP this summer. Speaks to how weak that colony is, but he has been riding well.

08 Sep 2012 1:39 PM
Footlick

You are right Pete, it is not the strongest jockey colony.  I can only get there on Sundays, so not the best cards either but I've done alright.

08 Sep 2012 3:02 PM
Karen in Texas

Dr. D or anyone who knows----Why was Brujo de Olleros put into a 1 1/4 mile race on the turf, no less, when his wins have been at 7-8 furlongs on dirt? Even the HRTV commentators seemed puzzled.

08 Sep 2012 4:05 PM
-Keelerman

Karen in Texas;

Brujo de Olleros had been entered in yesterday night's Presque Isle Mile Stakes, but was scratched from the race after drawing a poor post position. Entering the Bowling Green was apparently more of a "Plan B" than anything else. After his performance today, I would expect to see him back on dirt next time out.

-Keelerman

08 Sep 2012 4:30 PM
Karen in Texas

Thanks, Keelerman. I would say the turf experiment was less than successful.

08 Sep 2012 4:45 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Karen in Texas

  I thought that maybe Motion knew something that nobody else knew. Big mistake. They need to get Brujo back on the right track with a mile or less on the dirt only for the rest of his races. Brujo thinks it's because he's in the U.S. and every race is supposed to be at a different surface and distance. "This country is loco !!!!!"

08 Sep 2012 5:22 PM
KY VET

As i posted in other blog. bad fav. blueskiesnrainbows in superderby...either rousing sermon or bourbon courage....key mostly bourbon courage on top and 1/2 as much on rousing sermon......either wins , $$$$$$$$$$$$$$..........pro!

08 Sep 2012 6:08 PM
KY VET

YOU ARE WELCOME!!!!!!

08 Sep 2012 6:16 PM
Karen in Texas

Si, Dr. D, pobre Brujo! He must be confused!

08 Sep 2012 6:31 PM
JayJay

As I predicted in the other blog.  The sun came up and it's a nice sunny afternoon at Lousiana Downs, couple that with my picks ROUSING SERMON OR BOURBON COURAGE.  I'm the real PRO!!!  You're welcome.

08 Sep 2012 7:11 PM
KY VET

Saw the headline OBS MIXED SALE HAS 420 HORSES on the home page.....I REFUSE TO READ ANOTHER ARTICLE ABOUT DRUGS IN HORSERACING!!!!!!

08 Sep 2012 7:19 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

jayjay

  Great call on the other blog on the weather !!! That's what an old pro does-pays attention to the weather and track conditions. Nice of you to take KY Vet under your wings. Looks like you just missed a really nice DD with the 13-1 just missing.

Pete

   Timely writeup on Gomez, the winner of the Futurity. Perfect ride by Gomez on a still green Pataky. What's a Pataky?

08 Sep 2012 8:46 PM
JayJay

Dr. D : lol, he is under my wings.  I'm edumacating him on how to handicap.  I was wondering the same thing about Pataky, too lazy to google it but now I will.   I think that's probably the best runner I've seen by Rockport Harbor.  I've been watching his babies and so far no one has been impressive until I saw Pataky's run.

08 Sep 2012 8:58 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Pete

  Groupie Doll looked awesome winning at Presque with no signs whatsoever of the injury hampering her stride. In your opinion are any other female sprinters in her league? When do you think you'll be breaking down the possible entrants for each BC race? Or are you going to do that?

08 Sep 2012 9:05 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Dreaming of Julia is one exciting female that Pletcher has, annihilating a pretty good field while setting strong fractions in the 2nd at BP today. Wow. Two for two, both wipeouts and fast fractions setting the pace. Two year old out of A.P. Indy. Another female superstar?

09 Sep 2012 1:33 PM
KY VET

Hey Dr.D.....no signs whatsoever? She changed leads about 12 strides too late.................i'm just sayin.....

09 Sep 2012 9:12 PM
KY VET

Hey group.....pick a race, any race, and i'll break it down......any track, any time......i'll show you the way!

09 Sep 2012 9:36 PM
KY VET

WELCOME CLASS!!!! To be a pro handicapper you must understand that almost all horses running have something wrong with them....This blog is full of the "dont run hurt horses! and NO MEDICATIONS!!!!" people.....i.e. people that don't understand the sport....Take fort FINGER LAKES monday race8....4500 cl.. 3,4,5,7,8 all were 20000claimers or better months before.....i.e. all hurt.....betting these kinda horses can make you look like a genius, or an idiot(some person that bets on horses without using a racing form).......9 horse wide open race. only 1 and 2 can't win...7 or 8 both back class...horse 8 has lost last 3 races by 42 lenghts.....this is a good thing....win place / key horse 8 ROCKING OUT....to wake up

09 Sep 2012 10:31 PM
Footlick

Maybe Groupie Doll was just there for the prestige, so she forgot to change leads because she just felt so prestigious she didn't pay attention.  I'm just sayin.......

09 Sep 2012 11:53 PM
JayJay

Betting half the field everytime you bet is just really dumb, you can't buy the race everytime, it's common sense.  Every handicapper knows that.  You don't post your picks and it's more than half the field, who does that ??   Rookie, it's good though, I love taking their money :)

10 Sep 2012 12:55 AM
JayJay

As a professional handicapper, you need to know how to bet all the horses in the field without looking like you do it because otherwise you'd look really stupid.  Take Race 2 at wherever racetrack that's running on Monday (which to me sounds like someone is desperate to be betting horses on a monday lol).  Horse 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12 all ran in their last race, but 2,3,4,5 and 6 walked home, the other ones went to the park and the 12 horse went grocery shopping... so who you ask will be the winner ?? The 12 of course, he went and spent his money on groceries instead of betting at the track.   There you have it folks, that's what professional handicappers do, listen and learn. Hahaha I crack myself up....

10 Sep 2012 1:05 AM
LAZMANICK

JayJay you're the man, the consummate pro.  Of course here's another tip to pad a waning bankroll.  Call up one of those European owners.  They don't race for the money.  They'll gladly give up their horse's earnings, no problem.  

10 Sep 2012 1:20 AM
JayJay

Laz :  Yeah, I have no idea where KY VET gets his information.  I bet you if he tells the EU owners "Hey, back me up here, you guys don't come here for the money right ?? "  ... they'll probably give him 1 pound and say " go buy someone to talk to."

Compared to KY VET, we're all PROs.  Picking the favorite or the 2nd favorite is really really hard.  KY VET doesn't realize that when a horse is the favorite or even 2nd favorite, more than half of the betting public already picked the horse lol.  It's just wayyy too funny.

10 Sep 2012 2:08 AM
LAZMANICK

Jay

Monday's!  Isn't that the day that real pros take off?  I thought that was the day they went to the bank and deposited their earnings then took some time to read up on Handicapping for Dummies, Vol One - Why I Never Bet the First Two Favorites.

10 Sep 2012 2:33 AM
LAZMANICK

Jay I also think he probably watches those late night informercials, you know the ones where some slick guy in a suit is pushing his confidential book that lists all those Euro Owners that give away their horse's earnings.

10 Sep 2012 2:35 AM
Mary Zinke

KY Vet, Race 10 at Fairplex, 9/12. There's one vote. Whatever this group decides. Stakes race: Woodbine Mile,9/16, all placings. Thanks.

I'll try and check out what you said about my girl, Groupie Doll.

10 Sep 2012 2:50 AM
Pete Denk

Dr. D-

Blood-Horse is planning a series of race chats around the Breeders' Cup, and I'll definitely be looking at a bunch of the divisions.

In the F&M Sprint, it looks like Groupie Doll could be challenged by  Winding Way, Contested, and Renee's Got Zip.

10 Sep 2012 2:25 PM
Rusty Weisner

Pete Denk,

I'm probably not the only one who would love to see extensive guest commentary by Gun Bow on the Santa Anita course for the Breeder's Cup.  

10 Sep 2012 4:45 PM
tcc

JayJay and Laz;

Maybe you could help the pro after class is over.

WELCOME CLASS!!!! To be a pro handicapper you must understand that almost all horses running have something wrong with them....

horse 8 has lost last 3 races by 42 lenghts.....this is a good thing....win place / key horse 8 ROCKING OUT....to wake up

KY VET 09 Sep 2012 10:31 PM.

#8 finished LAST!

10 Sep 2012 4:51 PM
Rusty Weisner

tcc:

I'm sitting on that horse.  Fifth time's the charm.

10 Sep 2012 4:54 PM
KY VET

Yes....thats what happens ...sometimes they dont wake up......i lost that race....it happens...............pro

10 Sep 2012 5:17 PM
KY VET

ROCKING OUT BROKE DOWN.....

10 Sep 2012 5:31 PM
Carlos in Cali

Pete,

Re: the F&M Sprint. Turbulent Descent seems formidable as Santa Anita was her former home-base and 7f seems to be her best distance... I noticed you didn't mention her.

10 Sep 2012 6:53 PM
JayJay

tcc :  LOL, that was hilarious.

"  betting these kinda horses can make you look like a genius, or an idiot(some person that bets on horses without using a racing form). "

I don't read the form and I didn't bet the horse... he read the form and KNEW the horse lost 42 lengths in their last 3 races and STILL BET HIM....  who's the idiot now ??   Hahaha, I crack meself up.

I checked equibase and the full chart said the 8 horse "lost contact, eased".  I think there's a big difference between a horse breaking down and being eased....  I'm just saying... someone needs some real schooling.

10 Sep 2012 11:56 PM
Pete Denk

Good call Carlos. Turbulent Descent could very well be headed for the BC F&M Sprint.

11 Sep 2012 9:06 AM
Carlos in Cali

By the way: Does anyone know what route To Honor And Serve and Ron The Greek will take towards the BC Classic? Will Mott run both of them in the JCGC?. Are they pointing the overated Royal Delta to the BC Classic to try and recoup some of the 9million$ the owners purchased her for, knowing she's probably best @ 10f?..

I think Mott should ship To Honor And Serve for his prep and give him a race over the Santa Anita track, Ron The Greek already has shown he likes SA by taking the Big Cap' earlier this year. Then again,THAS's tactical speed is an advantage @ Belmont Park,but do they want to tussle with the improving Fort Larned right before the BC Classic?..

11 Sep 2012 1:10 PM
-Keelerman

Carlos in Cali;

Ron the Greek in pointing toward a start in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, as is fellow Bill Mott-trainee Flat Out, but Mott has mentioned the Kelso Handicap (gr. II) as a goal for To Honor and Serve -- if the colt gets a Classic prep at all. He may go straight to the Classic off of his Whitney victory, although I suspect that a start in the Kelso is more likely.

-Keelerman

11 Sep 2012 2:08 PM
lunar spook

I sure hope all the folks on the RON THE GEEK bandwagon wise up before the b.c. the wheels are gonna come off , trust me !

11 Sep 2012 3:39 PM
Carlos in Cali

Thanks -Keelerman

I forgot that Flat Out is now in Mott's care. He seems to be loaded for the Classic if all 3 of his older male-handicap horses go. Though,I'm not sure a 1-turn mile is the right kind of prep for the 2-turn 10f BC Classic.. we'll see. Either way,To Honor And Serve will have to face Shackleford in the Kelso or Game On Dude in the Awesome Again @ Santa Anita if he ships. I prefer the latter scenario for several reasons,but he's not my horse and I'm pretty sure Mott knows what the hell he's doing...

11 Sep 2012 3:57 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Thanks for the response Pete. I always love the F&M Sprint. Yep, Carlos is one that knows what he's talking about.

11 Sep 2012 8:12 PM
KY VET

Mary. Good lord you picked a very tough race.9/12 10th at fairplex. wonder why you interested in that race....another "hurt patrol" race...big class droppers running bad.....not great race to bet...but here goes..3,5.6.7.9.10 list of possible winners...all droppers w problems...cut that to 5.7,9,10...good luck from there...

11 Sep 2012 11:41 PM
JayJay

lunar spook : I'm staying in the wagon, until he shows something different in his next race.  I think this horse just figured out he's better at 10Fs.   I don't normally pick my horse until the post positions are drawn but since RTG is a turtle coming out of the gate anyway, post position doesn't matter.

Who's your Classic horse ?

Pete :  Which race do you think will be the value race ?  Seems like there's really no clear cut favorite in any of the BC races.  Questing might go off at even money in the BCLC but I don't know if she's really unbeatable.  I think the grass races will probably be where the longshots will win (and when I say longshot, I meant 20-1 or up.)

I'm anxiously awaiting who will show up from EU for  the prestige and the trophy and the flowers and TV coverage and all that good stuff.  I still don't know why they don't want the money but hey... we'll leave that up to the experts.

12 Sep 2012 1:13 AM
Mary Zinke

KY Vet, I picked the final race of the big 9/12 carryover P6 at Fairplex, because I have had no luck trying to figure out this bull ring. I had two winners out of the Sunday P4 there, but the 1-9 single, Baffert's horse, was caught. Some horses blow the turns so badly. Chalk, big long shots, no rhyme or reason, so, since you asked, I picked one of the Fairplex races with a big field. I'm going to go 6,7,5. 6 because even with the "suspicious class drop", it appears to be much faster than the rest. That's the type that gets caught at this track,though. The key to the huge jackpot for someone could be one of your picks, KY Vet. Thanks for your response.

12 Sep 2012 1:40 AM
lunar spook

JAY JAY- My classic horse is to honor and serve , i like the way hes maturing into form , if they elect not to run him i like fort larned , according to my O.M.O.C. FIGURES ron the geek has began to regress and will be way off come b.c. time

12 Sep 2012 8:15 AM
Pedigree Ann

Lunar spook - in his only race at 10f, last year's BC Classic, To Honor and Serve was backing up at the finish, from 2nd by 1 to 7th by 3.5; the genuine 10f horses were pulling away from him. This does not bode well for this year's race, especially if he doesn't get another 10f race and show something more than he did last year. Send him to Hawthorne for the Gold Cup, if you don't want to run him in the JC Gold Cup, Mr. Trainer.

P.S. Mr. Pletcher has demonstrated quite well the folly of running horses in the Classic without adequate distance racing and/or off a 2-month layoff. I am surprised that an experienced trainer like Mr. Mott would even consider such a strategy.

12 Sep 2012 9:30 AM
lunar spook

PEDIGREE ANN - I HAVE FOLLOWED THAS FOR A LONG TIME AND STILL THINK HES RAPIDLY IMPROVING AND MOTT WILL HAVE HIM READY COME B.C. TIME! WHATS YOUR TAKE ON FORT LARNED? I LIKE HIM TOO! p.s. check my quote about you on haskins game afoot article , i meant it sincerely !

12 Sep 2012 10:19 AM
Mary Zinke

As tough as that was, you picked the winner, KY Vet. Congrats.

12 Sep 2012 11:11 PM

Recent Posts

More Blogs

Archives