By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
One of my favorite races in between the Triple Crown and
summer racing at Saratoga and Del Mar is the $500,000 Ohio Derby (G3) at
Thistledown.
The 1 1/8-mile race typically draws a quality field with
at least one Triple Crown veteran in the entries, and Saturday's renewal is no
exception. The 10-horse field for the 2025 Ohio Derby includes two horses who
competed in the spring classics: Kentucky Derby (G1) ninth-place finisher #2 Chunk of Gold (7-2) and Preakness
(G1) ninth-place runner #6 Clever Again (9-5).
Let's start with Chunk of Gold, who seems likely to
finish in the top three. He opened his career with a couple of promising
efforts on Tapeta at Turfway Park, tracking the pace to win a six-furlong
maiden special weight before rallying to finish second in the one-mile Leonatus
S.
Chunk of Gold has continued with rallying tactics since switching
to dirt. In the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star (G2), he outran expectations as a 43-1
longshot, closing for second place against runaway winner Magnitude. Even in
defeat, Chunk of Gold earned a respectable 92 Beyer Speed Figure, a number he
repeated when finishing second in the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby (G2).
Then came the Kentucky Derby, in which Chunk of Gold
raced in the front half of the field throughout. He advanced to fifth place
with half a mile remaining and was only 2 1/4 lengths from the front at the top
of the stretch, but then he weakened to finish 15 3/4 lengths behind the
victorious Sovereignty.
Dropping down in class and distance for the Ohio Derby
should help Chunk of Gold rebound. But his stretch-running style could
potentially leave him at a tactical disadvantage against Clever Again, a pure
pacesetter who brings promising form lines into the Ohio Derby.
Clever Again opened 2025 on a strong note. The stoutly bred
son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah wired a 1 1/16-mile maiden special
weight at Oaklawn Park by 3 1/4 lengths. Then in the one-mile Hot Springs S.
over the same track, he led all the way to trounce Del Mar Futurity (G1) winner
Gaming by four lengths with a 101 Beyer.
The form of the Hot Springs has held up well. Gaming has
since finished third in the Pat Day Mile (G2) and first in the Affirmed S., while
fourth-place finisher Max Got Excited came back to win the Bachelor S. and
fifth-place runner Hola Joey won the Golden Circle S. in his next start.
Unfortunately, Clever Again ran into trouble when stepping
up in class for the Preakness. After carving out fast fractions of :22.81,
:46.23, and 1:10.78 (which earned flashy Brisnet E1 and E2 Pace ratings of 100
and 112), Clever Again appeared to be growing leg-weary. He was probably
heading for an off-the-board finish, but his eventual 30 1/2-length margin of
defeat was exaggerated by the fact Clever Again got caught up in a severe
bumping incident at the top of the stretch. Clever Again had to take up
sharply, and after that jockey Jose Ortiz let the colt just cruise to the
finish line.
I'm optimistic Clever Again will rebound in the Ohio
Derby. While he could potentially face pace pressure from $100,000 maiden
claiming winner #9 Master Controller (20-1)
and Bay Shore S. conqueror #10 Mo Plex (6-1),
those two are sprinters stretching out in distance, and they're not pure
need-the-lead types. There's a chance they'll be ridden conservatively while tackling
a longer distance; Mo Plex, for example, rated in midfield when finishing third
in the one-mile Champagne (G1) last year.
If this proves to be the case, then Clever Again will
have every chance to secure an uncontested lead and rebound to the form of his
Hot Springs performance. A repeat of that 101 Beyer will make Clever Again
tough to catch, so I'll side with him as my top choice over Chunk of Gold.
The other horse with a big chance to factor is #4 McAfee (3-1), a slowly improving
half-sibling to 2024 Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna. McAfee didn't have much
luck in two forays on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, finishing fifth in both the
Gotham (G3) and the Wood Memorial (G2). However, the Wood Memorial was a fast
race, and when McAfee dropped back down in class for the 1 1/8-mile Peter Pan
(G3), he tracked the pace on his way to finishing second by three-quarters of a
length.
In the Peter Pan, McAfee came home half a length ahead of
Withers S. winner Captain Cook while earning a 93 Beyer higher than Chunk of
Gold's career-best numbers. He has the credentials to finish in the top three
on Saturday and may even land a spot in the top two.
Selections
1st: Clever Again
2nd: Chunk of Gold
3rd: McAfee
Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Ohio Derby?
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
