Lasix-off not an issue for Fortify

Godolphin Racing's Fortify, who has raced without Lasix in all three of his career starts, could be the only horse in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) who won't be racing "Lasix off" on championship day.

The Breeders' Cup will not allow any two-year-olds to race on the anti-bleeding medication at this year's event, which will take place November 2-3 at Santa Anita. Of the horses I know to be pointing to the Juvenile, Fortify is the only one who has never raced on Lasix.

It's tough to say how handicappers should factor Lasix into their betting. It used to be that a horse had to bleed to receive Lasix, and Lasix off or on could have a powerful effect on performance. But use of the drug has become so prevalent in America that many horses that do not bleed are now administered Lasix everytime they run,  either preventively or for other benefits.

Some horses will do fine in the Breeders' Cup without Lasix, but some bleeders also could emerge. Dramatic form reversals are possible.

The Breeders' Cup is making a statement in favor of medication reform in America, the most permissive major racing country in the world when it comes to raceday drugs. But if a horse bleeds badly at the Breeders' Cup, it could provide fodder for those who say the Lasix ban is misguided -- that it is cruel not to allow bleeders to run on Lasix.

Last year, Fortify's trainer Kiaran McLaughlin asked his owners permission to run their two-year-olds without Lasix unless they actually bled.

"We did our own little study," McLaughlin said. "Because of what is likely to happen -- more and more races are going to be run without Lasix -- I thought it would be a good idea to run them without it, and see what's going on. The most significant thing we discovered is that not many of our horses bled."

This year, Fortify's owners Godolphin Racing signed a pledge to not use Lasix on their two-year-olds.

"Both Darley/Godolphin and Shadwell signed the no-Lasix agreement," McLaughlin said. "We've had one bleeder out of all the horses we've run without Lasix this year. Fortify has not needed it. Even if I was operating on my system from last year, Fortify wouldn't have had Lasix yet. He has scoped clean every time."

Godolphin Racing's Travers' Stakes (G1) winner Alpha, who will race in the Breeders' Cap Classic this year, raced without Lasix during his two-year-old campaign in 2011. Alpha ran well twice -- winning his debut by six lengths, then second in the Champagne Stakes (G1) -- but he finished 11th , beaten 19 lengths in the Breeders' Cup. McLAughlin said Alpha "did bleed a little" in the Breeders' Cup. Alpha has raced on Lasix throughout his three-year-old campaign.

McLaughlin said Fortify is ready for the Breeders' Cup and training well.

"He's a really nice horse, and everything is going well. Obviously Shanghai Bobby has been impressive, but Fortify has been running well, and I hope he keeps improving through his two-year-old season and on to three," McLaughlin said. "Maybe we’re a step ahead on the Lasix issue. We’ll see. It makes me sleep a little better knowing we haven't used Lasix on Fortify and no [2yo] can use it at the Breeders' Cup this year. We don’t have that question mark."
 

77 Comments

Leave a Comment:

Triptych

Lets get Mike Repole and other drug enthusiasts know this "little study" :-/

18 Oct 2012 1:23 PM
John from Baltimore

Racing needs to rid itself of Lasix and the bronchial dialators for the good of the horse.  Had a Mustang once (car), souoed up the engine and the wheels fell off.

18 Oct 2012 2:27 PM
Dooquila

Well done Breeders Cup for taking a step towards uniting with the rest of the world.  America is the Lance Armstrong of thorougbreds, thanks to the initiatives of the Breeders Cup, the damage done can start to be reversed.

18 Oct 2012 2:39 PM
Vaduz

"Maybe" salix is enhancing? Cmon, we all know it is. The horse industry is afraid to write it down in an official paper, but that doesn't change the fact. We know it. That's why everybody uses it even though their horses don't bleed, don't they? Any clearer?

Consequently, if BC already said "no lasix for 2-year olds on BC this year", well, what was Repole thinking by giving Lasix to ALL his horses? Nobody would dare say he and Pletcher don't have brains, and any person with brains will adapt: "No lasix on BC? Ok, I want to run, so no lasix on my promising 2-year-olds". Period. So, doing otherwise is either no-brained (which is not the case) or just trying to keep gaining that edge over the rest. Any clearer?

18 Oct 2012 2:45 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

I'm glad you put the Mclaughlin quote in there. It's a well known fact that for many years Lasix was used to cover up the use of other meds. It possible to see a reversal of form off of Lasix for a horse or two but it is also possible to see a better performance from a horse off of lasix who didn't react well to lasix and its dehydrating effect. Most people would be Ok with using lasix just for bleeders but lasix has a detrimental effect on the developing skeletal system of young horses and should not be used for horses that don't need it. Personally I would never use it on any 2 or 3 year old when the development of their muscle-skeletal system is so critical. I will handicap normally without any regard to the effects of not being on lasix. BC is absolutely doing the right thing. We will see stronger horses with longer careers in the future if we can keep trainers from over medicating them as has been done for at least a few decades now.

18 Oct 2012 6:39 PM
hank

Can someone answer a question for me Do they also train there horses off lasix or just administer it on race day? Racing I believe caused there own problem by just allowing anyone to put i horse on lasix without concrete knowledge that it had bleed I mean by scoping the horse after a workout or race.

18 Oct 2012 8:24 PM
Ranagulzion

Fortify is my early-bird selection for the BCJ.

18 Oct 2012 9:41 PM
fb0252

how ridiculous is the statement--"some bleeders could emerge".  

18 Oct 2012 9:41 PM
Pete Denk

Not ridiculous at all.

Take 40 two-year-olds who have been racing on Lasix, put them in the toughest race so far of their careers, and run them without Lasix.

It is quite likely that some of them will bleed (experience exercise-induced pulmonary hemorrhaging).

19 Oct 2012 12:01 AM
nu-fan

I watched an old clip from a Breeder's Cup of 10-12 years ago.  I forgot which one but the commentators were speaking about whether the use of lasix was warranted.  Amazingly, this is still controversial.  I am crossing my fingers that this year's BC may provide some answers so that this subject has some resolution to it.  By the way, I appreciate the comments made by others on this page.  They were polite and well-thought.  That isn't always the case when people discuss lasix.

19 Oct 2012 1:46 AM
Carol Kaye

McLaughlin is great for breeders.  With the kind of information he is giving us we would know which horse to use for breeding to prevent more bleeders being born.

This years BC may take a hit but it will be better in the future when trainers do not automatically put horses on lasix whether needed or not.

19 Oct 2012 8:25 AM
THE KEYMASTER

Does anyone have any statistics from the era when lasix/salix/furosemide was NOT legal in NY but legal in many other racing jurisdictions?

I remember when the 1990 Breeders Cup was at Belmont, Unbridled won the Classic and was not on Lasix, although he was regularly administered Lasix in other racing jurisdictions.

19 Oct 2012 9:43 AM
Pete Denk

Keymaster-

Unbridled and maybe Bayakoa were Lasix-off winners at the 1990 Breeders' Cup. Equineline does not have good data an medications from back then...But New York horses and Europeans did very well.

In fact, it looks like it really helped the Euros. They won the Mile (Royal Academy) and the Turf (In the Wings). That's not terribly surprising, but they also got 2nd in the Sprint (Dayjur) and the Classic (Ibn Bey).

19 Oct 2012 10:34 AM
Harryshorses

Most of the owners who have experimented with no Salix with their two year olds that I have read about have discovered that 1. they did not bleed and 2. they did very well in several cases against horses using Salix.  What happened to the notion pushed by some vets that ALL horses bleed and therefore ALL need Salix?  As Joe say's, Malarkey!

19 Oct 2012 1:18 PM
Forbidden Apple

Fortify's hidden edge to me is his maturity and class. He is a well behaved and intelligent horse that loves to run. He seemed a bit dull to me after his maiden win. Fortify's appetite has increased since the Champagne and I'm looking for him to make a huge run at Santa Anita.

I remember when I was 12 and kids would not get what they wanted. So they would take their ball and run off with it. The Breeders Cup will be just fine without a spoiled rich kid's horses. This is the same kid who just had to have the Travers canoe from Saratoga Race Course. And NYRA was silly enough to let him have it.

Vaduz,

Your comments are right on target for me, Pletcher needs the edge to win 2 year old races in abundance.

Is the Breeders Cup gearing up for a lasix free 2013 Classic? If not, then why bother banning lasix in the 2012 Juvenile races.

Hank,

Some horses do breeze with lasix, so yes it is used during training hours.

19 Oct 2012 1:31 PM
Vaduz

Pete:

Your comment "Take 40 two-year-olds who have been racing on Lasix, put them in the toughest race so far of their careers, and run them without Lasix." reflects precisely the problem behind all this. There was a interview with A.Jerkens where he wonders how can horses train on shorter distances and then go and run on longer routes? Exactly: No one honestly preps for a marathon by sprinting, or goes into it if he knows he is not healthy enough. Obviously, if he pretends such a thing, his plan is to resort to "a little help" to make up for his shortcoming. That is the same thing they are doing nowadays with horses...except horses cannot give their opinion before the race...only during and after.

19 Oct 2012 7:13 PM
Pete Denk

Vaduz- I couldn't agree more. I am a strong proponent of longer works. Love to see 6f+ moves.

20 Oct 2012 10:02 AM
Pete Denk

William Backer's 2yo filly Hedonemewrongsong, whom I've written about and really like, will not go to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies' Turf, per trainer Jonathan Sheppard.

Similar to Fortify, she would have been (perhaps) the only American horse in the race who hasn't been performing on Lasix.

Sheppard said Hedonemewrongsong will be rested and readied for her 3yo campaign. He said a wide trip may have cost her in the Jessamine. They still think she could be special.

20 Oct 2012 10:08 AM
Coldfacts

Ranalgulzion,

My dear associate, I see you are on a Derby prospect from the Mr. Prospector sire line early. Fortify certainly has a Derby wunner's profile. It is worth noting that Homebreds have won six of the last 11 Derbies.

20 Oct 2012 11:19 AM
Susan from VA

Dr. Drunkinbum,

I am NOT a Salix supporter.  However, I am interested in the basis of your statement that salix has a "detrimental effect on the developing skeletal system of young horses."  Have controlled studies been performed on this topic?

20 Oct 2012 6:22 PM
-Keelerman

Welcome back, Coldfacts! Your thoughts have been greatly missed!

20 Oct 2012 10:07 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Susan from VA

   I don't know if they were controlled studies or just opinions from vets based on experience but I have read articles where they have stated it as I said. Makes sense to me based on my knowledge of what drugs do to the body for all animals including humans. Unfortunately I don't recall where I read the articles. I'm sorry I can't give you a link. If I come across one I will post it here.

21 Oct 2012 11:02 AM
Dooquila

Godolphin as global players of the horse racing industry, know that horses run without lasix and it is not necessary on raceday.  For the most part, if horses are given a good blow and trained hard, its not used in training either outside of the USA.  By never running on lasix, Fortify will not have that "what if" that the other "using" 2 year olds have.  Mike Repole's obviously chose to swerve the BC and no doubt made his decision a long time ago and plotted his horses campaigns accordingly.  That's his call, one at best could call it short sighted but he will either have to fall into line at some point or fall back. Elsewhere this policy would be a formality and the perception of horses running on drugs to gain advantage is seen as cheating.  If the horse is racing on drugs because he needs them then he should not be running. The Breeders Cup really have taken a bold step in addressing this issue and I hold them in the highest esteem as of course the owners and other supporters of this inititiave.  I hope that the powers that be track the horses that race at the BC without lasix  and see which ones go back, which ones continue to race without lasix  and how all of them do in future.  As another poster flagged up, does anyone know what happens after this years BC, is it a year by year thing or is it going to get developed and expanded...

21 Oct 2012 2:41 PM
KY VET

Again.....and again...over and over....people that know NOTHING about lasix, comment on "drugs in racing".......you dont even understand the drug OR racing. GET THIS THRU YOUR HEADS! I will put it in very simple terms that you understand......LASIX just makes the horse PEE! Lowering the blood pressure......TAKE IT AWAY! Fine! Its just a shortcut that gets the water out of their body.....Now, all you do is take away water from the horse for longer period...What you all should be up in arms about, are the many "THIRSTY" horses being forced to race!

21 Oct 2012 5:43 PM
THE KEYMASTER

First time Lasix scored today in the 2nd race at Keeneland.  The longest price on the board, #8 Grand Coulee, won using Lasix for the first time in limetime 8 starts.

21 Oct 2012 10:28 PM
LAZMANICK

KY Vet

Is that how Stay Thirsty got his name?

22 Oct 2012 12:24 AM
Susan from VA

Lazmanick-Best comment on this blog!!

22 Oct 2012 12:18 PM
Dooquila

KY Vets  with all due respect what about the effects of diuretics on horses about to race, noone in Europe races or trains on the stuff as I am sure you know but do you not think that Lasix is not harmless just because  a, Lasix just being used where its not necessary is all sorts of wrong and b) is often one of a little mix of goodies that are going in either legally or illegally - Ive  always thought horses of any breed should have their medications of any sort kept to a minimum.  They are the opposite of the human who wants to pop pills?

22 Oct 2012 12:38 PM
Linda in Texas

Susan from VA - don't know if there were controlled studies but if you will, please direct your attention to the following link:

amymgillphd.com/library_sub/docs/pdf/Optimizing Bone Formation-1.pdf for an article on

the subject.

I have also read prior articles on this subject.  

If it is not what you are looking for then i apologize. Just have been interested in the subject myself.

Hi Pete. See you are still going strong. Keep up the good work.

And thank you.

22 Oct 2012 6:25 PM
JayJay

I'm not sure what KY Vet's point is...  he says we should be up in arms for many horses that races thirsty.... but lasix make horses pee, which dehydrates them and in effect makes them thirsty...  so I guess we're back to the original topic of the discussion... LASIX... lol

Sup Laz and Dr. D, you guys have any value picks for the BC races ?  Any race...

22 Oct 2012 10:58 PM
Coldfacts

In 2011 a Jamaican sprinter was band for life after a post race test revealed that he used Laxis. The Lasix was not deemed to be a performance enhancer but a drug    used in an effort to mask the use performance enhancers.

I have no doubt that Laxis is used in horse racing in many cases to achieved similar results. This drug has far more impact than preventing bleeding. Many Europeans request the administration of Laxis for the Breeders Cup although there is no history of bleeding associated with their charges. The wide and unregulated use of Laxis is bad for horse racing.

My English is probably the worst on these Blogs but even I am aware that it is overwhelmingly incorrect to advise a group that they knows NOTHHING! The word ANYTHING should be used going forwards.

23 Oct 2012 10:06 AM
Pedigree Ann

All the talk has been about Lasix, but what about that other main-stay of modern US racing, Bute? Bute is an NSAID and as all physicians know, too frequent use of NSAIDs can lead to some nasty side effects. Kidney damage for one, sores in the stomach for another. And just possibly, bleeding in the lungs, due to the blood-thinning effect common in NSAIDS.

23 Oct 2012 10:45 AM
Pete Denk

Can't wait til the pre-entries are released tomorrow.

23 Oct 2012 10:57 AM
Pete Denk

Scarlet Strike, a West Coast-based 2yo filly I like, will not run in the Breeders' Cup. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer was quoted in DRF saying he didn't want to risk her bleeding.

23 Oct 2012 11:23 AM
LAZMANICK

Hey Jay picks are coming.  You do realize that we have to wait for the Vet Elimination Process first don't you (his picks).  That increases our chances by about 8%. LOL

23 Oct 2012 2:09 PM
KY VET

welcome back COLD FACTS!

23 Oct 2012 3:50 PM
JayJay

LOL Laz : yeah, I'm anxiously awaiting the "throw outs" from his picks lol.

23 Oct 2012 6:59 PM
THE KEYMASTER

R. Dutrow's training days are look like they will be winding down. I can't believe it is taking this long to get the needle carrying weasel out of the game.

24 Oct 2012 9:30 AM
THE KEYMASTER

Just read an interesting quote:

Assistant trainer Richard Hannon Jr. said on his father's website, "We have never had a winner at the Breeders' Cup, but Sky Lantern probably represents our best chance yet. She has solid group 1 form, and, being on the turf, we have to think that she has a serious chance, especially as there is no Lasix permitted in all the 2-year-old races out there, which makes it a level playing field for everyone."

24 Oct 2012 11:14 AM
Pete Denk

Sky Lantern is the light gray. Nice run.

www.youtube.com/watch

24 Oct 2012 11:42 AM
Pete Denk

I just asked Todd Pletcher if Shanghai Bobby trains on Lasix and if he has ever bled. He did not specifically answer my question, but he said he doesn't think No Lasix will be a problem...read into that what u like.

24 Oct 2012 1:47 PM
Pete Denk

George Strawbridge's Kitten's Point, most recently second in the Jessamine S., is the lone American-based runner in the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf who has not raced on Lasix.

Europeans- Flotilla, Sky Lantern, The Gold Cheongsam (odd name), and Waterway Run also have never run on Lasix.

24 Oct 2012 2:24 PM
THE KEYMASTER

Pletcher horses are typically a bet against in the Breeders Cup anyway.  

I believe Pletcher's Breeders Cup record out of 86 starts is 6-10-11.  That is only a win percentage of 6.9% and an ITM percentage of 31.4% ITM.  

Considering the typically low odds of Plether horses, they are  typically a bet against.  I don't feel like taking the time to calculate, but I imagine the $2 win bet ROI is horrible for Pletcher runners in the Breeders Cup.

24 Oct 2012 2:31 PM
KY VET

IT is not a concern, because he will dehydrate the horse the old way! Why can't you grasp this? Its not that big of deal.....come on people.........learn what you are talking about!

24 Oct 2012 5:23 PM
JayJay

Nice lineup for all the races.  Looking forward to everyone's picks, specially KY Vet's.

Keelerman / Pete : is the BC blog challenge on ?  I'd like a shot at Age of Reason's title hehe.

25 Oct 2012 8:45 AM
THE KEYMASTER

Just read the below elsewhere. Interesting...

For the second time during Keeneland's fall race meet, a Kentucky state veterinarian failed to administer Lasix to a horse scheduled to run on the medication, according to a report by the Daily Racing Form.

In Wednesday's fourth race, the Paul McGee-trained Infrattini, ran without Lasix and won anyway. It was the first time the 4-year-old son of Include had run without the medication in his 14 starts.

Dr. Mary Scollay, the equine medical director for the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission, told the DRF that the error occurred because of a mix-up in vet’s records over the location of the horse.

Trainer McGee later told the Form  that he decided to run Infrattini because “the horse doesn’t have a history of bleeding.”

25 Oct 2012 9:26 AM
-Keelerman

JayJay;

So long as Pete is willing to host the contest, I would be more than happy to keep score again!

25 Oct 2012 9:36 AM
Forbidden Apple

Okay folks, it's time to get back to picking winners. I believe Questing, Emcee and Fortify are all sitting on big races. Questing is far better than her latest on the deep Parx surface. Her jockey fell asleep at the wheel and she was also recovering from an unreported abscess in her front left hoof. This classy filly deserves a long look in the L. Classic. Emcee is lightly raced for a reason, but he is razor sharp at the moment. I prefer him in the Dirt Mile, but the Sprint might be an easier field and it comes wth a larger purse.

I also like Marketing Mix in the F&M Turf. Point Of Entry in the Turf. Wise Dan in the Mile, this train will keep on rolling. Fort Larned was my Classic horse until his latest race where he was extremely flat. I'd go with Royal Delta if she enters. It would have been great to see Wise Dan and Royal Delta in the Classic.

25 Oct 2012 1:38 PM
Pete Denk

Join Tom LaMarra and me for a live Breeders' Cup chat at noon today. Link:

www.bloodhorse.com/.../live-blog---friday-october-26-at-noon-edt

26 Oct 2012 10:44 AM
patdoyle

The heck with the rest of the world, do it for the right reason, because it is good for the horses.

If one out of x number of horses need lasix then give it only to the one who needs it to race without bleeding.

Just because the rest of the world does something should we fall in line? Figure out what is right for the horses and do it. The rest of the world doesn't like the US anyway.

27 Oct 2012 9:20 AM
jimthepimp

A few days ago I left a comment about the negative affects of Salix on horse racing. You didnt even post it. Do you only post things which you agree with. Shame on you, getting all sides makes for a better understanding of the issues. I expected more from you.

27 Oct 2012 10:43 AM
Mary Zinke

jimthepimp, I also sent a comment that would be considered anti-Salix, and suggesting that it might have more impact if a 2yo that had previously been running on Salix won a BCJ race Salix-free. My comment was not posted, but I figured that it must have been boring, and that I should work on my writing skills.

27 Oct 2012 12:03 PM
JayJay

Belmont Early $1 P4 ($24) :

2nd :  4, 6

3rd :  13, 4, 9

4th :   7

5th :  11, 10, 8, 4

Keeneland Early $1 P4 ($16) :

2nd :  7

3rd :   7, 10, 11, 5

4th :   10, 5

5th :   3, 11

27 Oct 2012 1:18 PM
JayJay

Keeneland's 2nd race results made me lol, I went with the hoochie coochie but glamour puss beat me.  I guess that's what I get for going cheap on the P4.

27 Oct 2012 2:09 PM
KY VET

kee Fayette stks......longshot play of day...120w80p GOLDEN YANK

27 Oct 2012 5:20 PM
KY VET

aqu longshot play #2 race 10 #7 LOST DECADE

27 Oct 2012 5:34 PM
KY VET

longshots 0-2 down300 bucks....prime bet of day coming up at gg....race 5 #2 ALL SIX SISTERS 200w150 p

27 Oct 2012 5:51 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

KY Vet

  Maybe you don't understand betting rules. The W bet is for who comes in first, not who comes in last. Listen and learn !!!!!! Learn the game !!!!! Come on now, get the basics down then you can work your way up. If you listen and learn.

27 Oct 2012 8:08 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Mike Repole will be on strike in the middle of a superstorm while everyone else is at the BC in sunny California. Altough I would like to see the BC be in NY once in awhile and Gulfstream once in awhile I can understand the point of the BC holding it in what is more likely to be good weather more often, but I don't see why they can't plan it far ahead with a rotating schedule that includes KY, FL, CA and NY. The dates will have to be set up in accordance with normal good weather patterns and meet schedules. I do see Mike Repole's point but his response is a little drastic. On the flip side, with his 2yo's, they may be better off without the BC considering the poor record of BC runners in the quest for a Triple Crown win. I did want to see Stay Thirsty in the Classic, thinking he had a good shot at good odds in a wide open race.

27 Oct 2012 8:50 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

patdoyle

  The one med I am OK with on raceday is Lasix, but only for those who need it. I do believe that giving lasix to every horse every race can be detrimental to their bodies, especially young, developing horses. The problem with meds in the U.S. is that the privlege has been highly abused sometime leading to death, especially in the lower claiming ranks where horses have been given pain meds and then they break down.

jimthepimp, Mary

   Maybe Pete knows the answer about the non-posted blog entries but I do know that sometimes they are lost due to technical difficulties, of course I don't know if that was the reason in your instances. Maybe Pete can answer that.

27 Oct 2012 8:55 PM
JayJay

GO GIANTS!

29 Oct 2012 2:28 AM
THE KEYMASTER

jimthepimp, Mary Zinke, and anyone else that may have attempted to post a comment that wasn't posted...

It is my understanding that Pete was traveling this weekend, so he did not moderate your comments.  Pete is open to discussion and other opinions.  I often disagree with Pete and never get moderated.

Your comments would have only been moderated if they contained vulgarity (which I assume was not the case), or more likely due to system error.

I imagine we will hear an explanation from Pete upon his return this week.

29 Oct 2012 4:15 PM
Ranagulzion

Coldfacts,

Fortify is now my firm selection for the BCJ. Looking ahead, I'll agree that his pedigree screams Triple crown series but I'll need to see more as I'm presently quite high on two Northern Dancer line colts, Darwin and Overanalyzed. The latter ran disappointingly in the Iroquois but he has plenty of ability, is being seasoned and has a sustained big kick when coming from off the pace. More anon.

29 Oct 2012 4:54 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

I agree with The Keymaster, Pete has allowed very strong dissenting opinions and opinions very critical of him.

Jayjay

   I don't really think it was fair for to the Tigers. They never had to face pitching that good before or a team that tenacious. It was just out of their league. Good luck with the BC. Pk3's might be a good way to go, you think?

29 Oct 2012 6:43 PM
Pete Denk

Hey guys, I am back in Lexington. Sorry for the absence.

I didn't delete any comments, and I definitely would not delete anything on the Lasix debate. All opinions r welcome. (Besides, I haven't even made up my mind 100% on what I think about Lasix)

I will look into it and report back. I am guessing the website went down and some comments were lost(?). Sorry for the confusion.

29 Oct 2012 7:20 PM
JayJay

Dr. D : Yeah, I wasn't expecting it but I'll take it wholeheartedly.  It seems the Tigers just wasn't able to get through the "layoff" for winning their series early and just lost momentum.  A sweep was definitely not something I expected.

I am planning on playing the P3s and P4s, I think the trifectas will be tough on all the races and it can get pretty expensive to try and hit it every race.  I might actually play $20 Win bets on each race.  I'm waiting for the post position draws before deciding how much I'll play on the P6, hopefully hit it so I can break even for this month lol.

Prayers and thoughts goes out to all affected by Sandy.  Hang in there and be safe!

29 Oct 2012 9:44 PM
Rusty Weisner

Just starting to look things over.

Can anyone tell me why I want to be betting against Excelebration when he'll be splitting the money with Wise Dan?

Not going wide in the Sprint:  I'm considering the last G1 SA the key race, with Amazombie, Coil and Capital Account against lots of 3-yos and weak competition from back East. Jimmy Creed had a shorter, inside trip than those other three and is a 3yo, but I will consider him because of Mandella.

In the turf I prefer Shareta to PofE and StNA.  I also like Slim Shadey here.  He doesn't often get the opportunity at this distance and I like his last race as a workout.

30 Oct 2012 1:51 PM
Rusty Weisner

Does anyone have the William Hill odds for these races?  I'm interested in see what they are for the Juvenile turf, Mile (turf) and Turf.

30 Oct 2012 1:52 PM
Footlick

Rusty- you can just go to their website and look them up.  Dundonnell is 3-1 for the Juv turf, artigiano is 7-1 and George Vancouver is also 7-1.  In the Mile, Excelebration is 6-4, Wise Dan is 5-2 and Moonlight Cloud is 5-1.  In the Turf, POE is 11-4, SNA is 3-1, Shareta is 4-1 and Trailblazer is 13-2.

30 Oct 2012 2:58 PM
Footlick

Longer shots I'm looking at to include:

Juv Sprint- Ceiling Kitty and Sweet Shirley Mae

Marathon- Calidoscopio and Juniper Pass

Juv FT- Flotilla, Waterway Run and Oscar Party

Juv Fillies- Spring in the Air and Broken Spell

FM Turf- Star Billing, Nereid. In Lingerie and Lady of Shamrock (12-1, really?)

Ladies Classic- Include Me Out

Juv T- Artigiano, rown Almighty, Dry Summer and Fantastic Moon

FM Sprint- Switch, Rumor and Teddy's Promise

Dirt Mile- Rail Trip and Tapizar

Turf Sprint- Mizdirection and Camp Victory

Juv- Capo Bastone, Dynamic Sky and Monument

Turf- Cogito, Optimizer and Slim Shady

Sprint- Fast Bullet, Jimmy Creed and Justin Phillip

Mile- Mr Commons and Suggestive Boy

Classic- Pool Play, Richard's Kid and Nonios.

These are taken off the morning line.  These are horses I am interested for exotics.  These are not my picks, just horses I am interested in for their odds.

30 Oct 2012 4:07 PM
THE KEYMASTER

Rusty-

Good point.  Wise Dan will be overbet in our pools and Excelebration will likely be the value.  Excelebration looked outstanding while winning at Ascot on British Champions Day.  Joseph O'Brien was sitting chilly waiting for room and once he found it, they were gone!

I might actually try to play someone other than Wise Dan and Excelebration though, just haven't figured out who it is yet.

30 Oct 2012 4:15 PM
Rusty Weisner

The Keymaster,

That's understating things.  He's basically never lost to anyone but Frankel (came in third once, I think).  It's always the case that the horse might not like the course or the footing, but given the odds he'll have, looks like a possible single.

As far as Shareta goes, reports over there say SA's firm ground will be to her advantage.  Similar reports said the same thing about Dangerous Midge a couple of years back, so I take them seriously.

30 Oct 2012 5:08 PM
Rusty Weisner

It's a bit early to say for sure, but I am thinking of playing two Pick 4 tickets, singling Excelebration on one and Shareta on the other.   The best Europeans don't always win these races, but I'll hope for at least one of them to.

On the ticket where I don't single Excelebration, I'll probably hit ALL or close to it in the Mile.  Probably less deep in the Turf.

30 Oct 2012 5:13 PM
Footlick

Rusty- she should appreciate the conditions better.  She does favor firmer ground.  Also remember, SNA has always performed much better on left handed courses, and he gets that here.

30 Oct 2012 11:08 PM
Rusty Weisner

What are the takeouts?  Unsurprisingly, I'm finding it impossible to track this info down.

31 Oct 2012 10:50 AM
Rusty Weisner

I have a suspicion that people go very wide in the Turf Sprint, but the past three years favorites or near-favorites have won (I had a Pick 3 singling the winning favorite last year, Noble's something).  It tends to be formful, as they say.

I don't think so this year with this course and distance!

31 Oct 2012 2:47 PM
Rusty Weisner

Excelebration is first-time Lasix, for what that's worth.

The Europeans also all carry less weight than they're used to, plus Shareta and Moonlight Cloud (best challenger to Excelebration, for the odds) get the 3 lb. FM allowance.

31 Oct 2012 3:31 PM

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