Sticking with 'The Greek' to win Breeders' Cup Classic

I admit it is dangerous and almost counterproductive to form opinions on a race weeks or months in advance, but I make two exceptions to that rule -- the Kentucky Derby and the Breeders' Cup.

The leadup to the Derby is horse racing's greatest journey. The most exciting two minutes in sports is preceded by a minimum two months buildup. As soon as the two-year-old colts hit the finish line in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, Derby talk is fair game in my book. 

I remember sitting on the media bus, mired in traffic after last year's Derby, debating with clocker Bruno de Julio about the ground loss Union Rags had suffered in the Juvenile and who was the better horse - Union Rags or Hansen.

I rarely form Breeders' Cup opinions that far in advance, but when I saw Ron the Greek win the Santa Anita Handicap back on March 3, the wheels started turning. This year's Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) will be run at the same track and distance as the Big 'Cap. Knowing how powerful hometrack advantage can be -- especially in Southern California -- a win over the strip is huge for an East Coast shipper like Ron the Greek.

But even more importantly, Ron the Greek showed me he was a true 10-furlong horse. The more time he spends in motion, the stronger he gets. That is the kind of horse I want to bet going the American classic distance.

It looks to me that there is plenty of speed in this year's Classic. Fort Larned, Game On Dude, Mucho Macho Man, and To Honor and Serve all have forward energy profiles and should ensure an honest pace. And while those horses are hoping to run 10f as well as they run 9f, I don't see any of them improving going longer, as Ron the Greek will. If the public evaluates the Classic contenders largely on their 9f form, that should create some value.

Before his 6th-place finish in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, Ron the Greek had four wins and four seconds in his last eight starts (since Bill Mott took over his training). I am going to forgive his 'off' race at Belmont and blame it on a very quirky surface that was flattering inside speed. He is my value play at 5-1 or more.

196 Comments

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JayJay

Pete : Totally agree with your pick with RTG as he was my pick for quite some time now and nothing he's done has changed my mind.  I think this race will set up nicely for him, if he does get beat, it won't be by GoD or THAS or Fort Larned.  I'm playing Flat Out, Pool Play and maybe Brilliant Speed for exacta and tri with GoD, MMM and THAS to complete my super.

I have to say though that for me, the Ladies Classic will be the highlight of the whole weekend.  I'm just so excited to see all these great fillies duke it out.  It's probably the best lineup in the history of the BC as there's not one, two or three top contenders, more than half of this field is very capable of winning the race.  

Here's what I've come up with but it's not set in stone.  I'll have to see how the track is playing before I dump all my piggy bank savings on these horses.

Classic :  Ron The Greek ( at 6-1 !!!!)  / Flat Out / Pool Play / Mucho Macho Man

Dirt Mile  : Shackleford / Jersey Town / Emcee / Second City

Juvenile : Title Contender / Fortify / Power Broker / Dynamic Sky

Juvenile Sprint : Super Ninety Nine / Ceiling Kitty / Merit Man

Juvenile Turf : Have no freakin' idea but I have to pick my horse here :  Know More ... then Dundonell or vice versa

Marathon :  Jaycito / Sense of Purpose / Eldaafer / Atigun

Mile :  Wise Dan / Suggestive Boy / Animal Kingdom / Mr. Commons

Turf :  Trailblazer / Point of Entry / St NA / Slim Shadey

Turf Sprint : Starsspangledbanner / Mizdirection / Great Attack

Sprint : Amazombie / Poseidon's Warrior / The Lumber Guy / Fast Bullet

Ladies Classic : Awesome Feather / My Miss Aurelia / Grace Hall / Royal Delta

F&M Sprint : Dust and Diamonds / Switch / Groupie Doll / Turbulent Descent

F&M Turf : Zagora / The Fugue / Ridasiyna

Juvenile Fillies : ExecutivePrivilege / Dreaming of Julia /  Almost An Angel / Kauai Katie

Juvenile Fillies Turf : The Gold Cheongsam / Waterway Run / Tara from the Cape / Moulin De Mougin

Looking forward to everyone's picks...and good luck to all playing with real money!!

31 Oct 2012 11:51 PM
Mike from Michigan

E.L.B. says Fed Biz in the dirt mile.

01 Nov 2012 7:04 AM
Pedigree Ann

Jay Jay -

The most important factor in handicapping races on The Hill (about 6.5f turf at Santa Anita) is experience on The Hill. You can't expect horses who have been running 5f or 5.5f on a dead flat course with one left turn to run their best at a longer distance and on a course with one right turn followed by a long left turn then crossing the main track, most of it downhill. (FYI, the high numbers are the inside on The Hill, since the right turn comes first.) Horses with decent form at a mile actually do better on The Hill than pure 5f/5.5f sprinters, as a general rule. IMHO Bridgetown is a toss, because of all of this.

Oh, and my best bet on the card is in the second race on the Saturday card, for 2yos down The Hill. Moulin de Mougin won her first start Down The Hill, no surprise, since her dam Cambiorcorsa was a Hill specialist, unbeaten in 6 or 7 tries on The Hill, with several stakes wins included. And Cambiocorsa's full brother California Flag won the BC turf sprint on this course. Yes, the ability to handle The Hill seems to be at least partly heritable; weird, but it may relate to balance and body length.

01 Nov 2012 8:55 AM
THE KEYMASTER

I agree that Ron the Greek sure looked good winning the SA Handicap and that his experience at SA and proven ability at 10f are very important assets.

However, Ron the Greek was aided by are ridiculously fast pace in the SA Handicap.  Remember the controversy over the Pedroza / Rosario duel with the two front runners in Ultimate Eage and Gladding?  They went 44.2 for the half and 109 for 6f!!!

The speed horses in the BC Classic are more professional than what we saw from the speed in the SA Handicap and they have shown the ability to rate off horses.  So while there should be an honest pace, I assume they will be going about 46.4 for the half and 1:11 for 6f, which is much slower than what we saw in the SA Handicap. While nobody is going to have an easy lead, I would be surprised to see a speed duel like we did in the SA Handicap.

I'm not sure who I'm going to play yet, but I might take the horse that I feel will sit right off the pace setter(s) and pounce at the top the the stretch. The horses I could foresee falling into this trip are Game On Dude, Fort Larned, and Mucho Macho Man.

I probably won't play Game On Dude on top because of the short price. I am leaning toward Fort Larned, partly because I'm a sucker for the horse because I cashed on him in the Whitney, and I think he might be a little better than Mucho Macho Man.  However, I do find Mucho Macho Man intriguing.

01 Nov 2012 10:17 AM
Rusty Weisner

Pedigree Ann,

Sold.  I will play that horse.

The Turf Sprint has been chalky the past three years, though I suspect many bettors go wide in it (I learned my lesson and singled the winning favorite last year in  a Pick-3).  Not this year!  Who do you like?

01 Nov 2012 11:02 AM
Rusty Weisner

JayJay,

Curious why you don't like either Shareta or Excelebration.

I really want someone to talk me off of including Trailblazer.  After that awful Japanese horse in the Classic a couple of years back (the one ColdFacts liked so much, leading me to believe that he himself is Japanese) I've got a bias against him.

01 Nov 2012 11:06 AM
Rusty Weisner

I like Ron the Greek because he covers the "closer" angle.  I don't like anyone enough, or know enough, to single here.  I'll consider a pseudo-single of Game On Dude and Ron the Greek in a Pick3 or Pick4.

01 Nov 2012 11:09 AM
Rusty Weisner

Anyone:

What are the takeouts?  I can't find it -- it's as if they're actively concealing this info.

01 Nov 2012 11:22 AM
Rusty Weisner

Jay Jay --

Juvenile Turf?  It doesn't help that the Americans are all off Lasix for the first time.

01 Nov 2012 11:30 AM
Pedigree Ann

Rusty - "That awful Japanese horse" got caught up in the same hot pace that cooked Quality Road. Dirt racing is secondary in Japan, anyway, so their dirt racers are not up to par with their turf racers. Sort of the way AW is where lesser horses race in Britain, for the most part.

Trailblazer is NOT a first-rank horse in Japan; his best wins are G2s, although he was a decent 4th behind first-rank mare Buena Vista in the Japan Cup. However, 12f is right in his wheelhouse. And he has had a US prep in the Oak Tree Mile (HATE those Stronach-names), in which he came flying at the end to beat some good milers like Mr. Commons. A tight, inside turf course holds no terrors for him. Sunday Silence son over Forty Niner; the stallions we didn't want coming back to haunt us. I guess that wouldn't discourage you. Sorry.

01 Nov 2012 11:46 AM
Rusty Weisner

I like the betting prospects for the Juvenile in rolling Pick 3's.  The two favorites split the money, but Power Broker is much the preferred choice; he would make a good single.  Meanwhile, Capo Bastone and a couple others have a good shot at good odds.

01 Nov 2012 11:52 AM
Rusty Weisner

Pedigree Ann,

Your two comments today are among the best I've ever read here. "Coruscating" comes to mind.

Still waiting to hear more about the turf sprint.  Apparently the outside posts are advantageous?

01 Nov 2012 12:03 PM
Weekend

a few nice longshot plays

Dynamic Sky

Spring Venture

Fed Biz

Aritgiamo

Turbulent Descent over Groupie DOLL, write it down

I am betting rolling p3's, $5 daily doubles, the pick 4's, and $1tri and 50cent supers every race.

01 Nov 2012 12:03 PM
Rusty Weisner

Which 3-year old has the best chance of winning Saturday?

01 Nov 2012 1:06 PM
-Keelerman

Rusty Weisner;

I too like Capo Bastone in the Juvenile. He was one of the only horses at Santa Anita that day to make up serious ground on a very speed-favoring main track, and if the track is fairer on Saturday, I relish his chances.

But I'm afraid that I can't talk you out of Trailblazer. I was so impressed with his Arroyo Seco Mile performance that I'm actually thinking of making him my pick. If one examines the fractions of the race, one finds that Obviously was actually accelerating through the final furlong as opposed to his previous eighth of a mile. Yet Trailblazer was still able to close the gap to just a half-length . . .

Pete;

What do you think of George Vancouver in the Juvenile Turf? The son of Henrythenavigator has not been particularly impressive in his last two starts, but three back, he was a close second to the top colt Reckless Abandon in the group I Darley Prix Morny. Interestingly, that was over firm turf -- and they say that the progeny of Henrythenavigator relish such conditions. With firm turf expected on Saturday, I'm thinking he may end up being the best of the Europeans. Any thoughts?

Also, do we have the go-ahead to hold a pair of informal "bragging rights" handicapping contests for the two days of the Breeders' Cup? :)

-Keelerman

01 Nov 2012 1:17 PM
THE KEYMASTER

I agree with Pedigree Ann. I like the horses with experince going down the hill.

Rusty -

Going down the hill, the first turn is a right hand turn, so the inside posts become the outside, and the outside posts become the inside.  Then they cross over into a left hand turn.  So I would agree that the inside posts are at a disadvantage while the outside posts are an advantage.

The Japanese hore Trailblazer is indeed a second tier horse over there, but this seems to be a soft edition of the Turf and that may be good enough to get the job done.  In addition to facing Buena Vista in The Japan Cup, Trailblazer also faced Dunaden in the Hong Kong Vase.  Dunaden also won the Melbourne Cup and the Caulfield Cup, two very important Australian races.  I like Trailblazer's local prep, although I'm still licking my wounds because I bet him on top in that spot.

01 Nov 2012 1:19 PM
-Keelerman

Rusty;

Offhand, Jimmy Creed in the Sprint comes to mind as a three-year-old that stands a good shot at winning. I also respect the chances of Nonios in the Classic and Delegation in the Dirt Mile, but admit that they're both facing pretty difficult tasks.

Perhaps Unbridled's Note in the Turf Sprint? He won the Eddie D over the course, and a repeat of that effort would make him a serious contender.

01 Nov 2012 1:29 PM
Ranagulzion

Rusty,

3YOs Triniberg and The Lumber Guy have very good winning chances in the BC Sprint. Triniberg's best shot will come from attempting to wire the field and TLG from stalking a hot pace. there are some very strong closer-type sprinters in here but Triniberg, if on the lead, will be a very stubborn front runner on Saturday.

01 Nov 2012 1:49 PM
Ranagulzion

Pete,

I agree Ron The Greek has a live shot but i think that Flat Out has more class going the distance and will likely sit closer to the pace. I cant see RTG outrunning him in the lane. However Mucho Macho Man is my fancy to show his class with a dominating victory under big timer jock Mike Smith. i think he'll sit in the catbird seat just off the pacesetters and turn up the tempo leaving the half mile marker. He should pack too many guns for Game on Dude, To Honor and Serve and Flat Out in the run for the wire.

01 Nov 2012 1:55 PM
Rusty Weisner

Keelerman,

I won't be singling in the Juvenile turf and will taking what look to be the best four Europeans.  I don't see anything disqualifying in them, while they get weight relief running here, and Americans not only are adding weight in most cases but have the added disadvantage of going off Lasix.  I'll also take the two Americans who look best, Balance the Books and Noble Tune, and maybe as a longer shot Gervinho by virtue of winning on the course at the distance.  I don't like Joha to steal it.  On one ticket I'll take only the four obvious Europeans.

Another race I'm going to go wide in without singling is the FM sprint.  Not having raced on the course is a big question mark for the favorite, and this is too chalky a favorite.  One longshot I like is Teddy's Promise.  Throwing out the other four longest shots.

By the way, what's the takeout?  Or is everyone here concealing it, too?

01 Nov 2012 2:42 PM
Rusty Weisner

Keelerman,

I agree that Jimmy Creed is the best shot by virtue of his performance in what I've decided to consider a "key race".  On the other hand, he had a sneaky, shorter inside trip than the others.  It was a strange race.

Ranagulzion,

I'll look closer at Trinniberg.  I liked him Belmont day.

01 Nov 2012 2:47 PM
Rusty Weisner

The Keymaster,

Do any of Newmarket, Doncaster or Ascot have downhills in sprints?  I'm looking at the two horses in the 2nd race Saturday.

01 Nov 2012 2:56 PM
dontelmeshome

Rusty,

I am a big fan of teaching one to fish, rather than handing over fish. santaanita.com is where you will find your answer for takeouts.

If it is so important for you, then you should see it for yourself.

01 Nov 2012 3:22 PM
Rusty Weisner

Keelerman,

Looking at it, I don't understand why Dundonnell is favored so much (3-1 in England) over George Vancouver.  Doesn't the grade of the race mean anything?  George Vancouver was competitive with two repeat G1 winners in those races; in his last he had a bad start in a short field.

01 Nov 2012 3:48 PM
Rusty Weisner

Keelerman:

from interview with O'Brien:

“In terms of their work at home, there’s not much between the two, and Lines of Battle might just shade George Vancouver. But Ryan (Moore) picked George Vancouver as he felt that the step up to a mile, and the track here, would suit him. He’s a ‘Henry’ (sired by Henrythenavigator) and he loved the fast ground and didn’t act on the soft, and I think George Vancouver is the same. I have a lot of ‘Henrys’ at home who haven’t had their ground this season as we’ve had such a wet year back in Ireland.”

01 Nov 2012 3:56 PM
-Keelerman

Thanks for the quote, Rusty! I appreciate that!

Regarding downhill sprints in Europe . . .

* Races between five and seven furlongs at Ascot are run over the straight course, which is completely uphill until the final eight of a mile, where the course levels out.

* Doncaster is a virtually level racecourse.

* At Newmarket, things get a bit interesting. Newmarket actually has two separate home straights -- known as the "July Course" and the "Rowley Mile" -- that are connected via a long "backstretch," if you could call it that. However, the July Course is only used during the months of June, July, and August, while the Rowley Mile is used for the remainder of the year.

As for the conditions of the two courses, the Rowley Mile course is undulating with a dip about a furlong from the finish, after which the course is uphill. The July Course is also undulating.

-Keelerman

01 Nov 2012 4:29 PM
Pedigree Ann

Both Ascot and Newmarket (both courses) have somewhat UPhill finishes, after having wavered down and up beforehand. The high-point at Doncaster is around the bend near the one-mile start; don't know if it reaches 'level' (as level as British courses get) before the sprint chute meets the course proper.

Once upon a time the low-level course at Brighton ran from the high point to the low point, but at some point the powers-that-be reversed the direction, so now the races are uphill all the way there.

01 Nov 2012 4:29 PM
Triptych

Rusty, english/ irish courses in general are sweeping up and down even horses racing head to head can find different hills and tales in their way to the finish line. There is hardly a levelled racecourse in GB/ IRE ;-)

01 Nov 2012 4:33 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Re:  Ron the Greek

While the early fractions of the SA Hdcp appeared 'wicked fast',  their influence relative to the final time of the race resulted in only a modestly closer favoring Flow.  In fact, racing flow figs have the SA Hdcp only slightly more closer friendly than the Foster, a race that drew few, if any, comments about the early pace scenario.  That said, both of those wins were previewed by upgraded performances,  something the racing flow boys do not see heading into Saturday's Classic. We are grateful for his two wins at robust mutuals,  but if he wins this, if will be without us.  

01 Nov 2012 4:56 PM
jimthepimp

This years classic is very intrigueing race to handycap. I will be playing the trifecta for my major plays on this race. Game on Dude is the most likely winner but isnt at his best distance. Flat Out is 6 to 10 points slower in speed ratings away from the northeast. Alpha is just pitiful away from New York. Fort Larned, Nonios, Mucho Macho Man and To Honor and Serve are questionable at this distance.

My longshot horse has to be Pool Play at 30 to 1. He has only run two races on the dirt and has won them both. One a grade 1 and the other a grade 2. His speed ratings are 5 to 10 points higher on dirt than on either poly or turf. He has already won on dirt at a mile and quarter. Certainly one of the few horses in the race that likes this distance. We can all argue if he is good enough but at 30 to 1 im going to find out.

I will be using the 1,2,9,10 ( most likely distance horses to score) with Game on Dude singled in first and second. Probably will only use the 9 in second and third as I dont feel he is a likely winner of the race. Im a sucker for Nonios so will have him in all three slots. My favorite bet is 10 W 5 W 1,8. Richards Kid is the most likely horse to come in either 3rd or 4th.

After all of this im even confused and its my plan. Wish everyone luck and hope the horses all come home safe.

01 Nov 2012 5:49 PM
Alysheba4ever

Feel that this years Classic is pretty open. Game on Dude is really good but beatable as is anyone of these horses so it will come down to who is on his game that day. I, however, will stay with my closer Dullahan, if he fires like he did in the Pacific Classic then watch out whoever is on the lead as he will most likely be coming wide on the outside just like Drosselmeyer my pick last year.

01 Nov 2012 5:58 PM
Footlick

Friday picks:

Juvy Sprint- Ceiling Kitty/Super Ninety Nine/Sweet Shirley Mae

Marathon- Almudena/Calidoscopio/Juniper Pass

Juv FT- Flotilla/Sky Lantern/Waterway Run

Juv F- Spring in the Air/Beholder/Executiveprivelege

FM Turf- Lady of Shamrock/The Fugue/Ridasiyna/Nahrain

Ladies Classic-Include Me Out/Awesome Feather/Royal Delta

01 Nov 2012 6:50 PM
Footlick

Sat picks-

Juv Turf- Artigiano/George Vancouver/Brown Almighty

FM Sprint- Switch/Groupie Doll/ Rumor

Dirt Mile- Rail Trip/Tapizar/Shackelford

Turf Sprint- Mizdirection/Starspangeledbanner/Cal Flag

Juv- Capo Bastone/Fortify/Monument

Turf- Shareta/St Nicholas Abbey/Point of Entry

Sprint- Jimmy Creed/Amazombie/Fast Bullet

Mile- Moonlight Cloud/Obviously/Mr Commons

Classic- Pool Play/Game On Dude/Nonios

All my picks are subject to change, but for this blog obviously they are down for the record.  And I am notoriously bad at handicapping American races- lol.

01 Nov 2012 8:07 PM
Monarchos Matt

Checking in from Portugal. Brutal late Pick 3 tomorrow, may try to hit some exactas and trifectas as like too many horses!

JUV FILLES: Still think Kauai Katie is the horse to beat here. Will be on the lead with Beholder and will wear that one down, and create distance from the field in the process.

F & M TURF- Deep, deep race, but I'm going to take shot with the American contingent and pick Zagora to win here. The firm turf at SA should suit and this is a race without pace. She was best when narrowly beaten on yielding turf in the Flower Bowl, while proving that 10f is not a problem. I also like I'm A Dreamer to rebound after a tough trip in that race.

DISTAFF- On her best day, Royal Delta dominates here, and while she's been inconsistent, I think the pace scenario could favor her here. My, what a race. I think Questing stands the best shot to beat her by running them all off their feet, but I love Awesome Feather as well.

01 Nov 2012 8:55 PM
Rusty Weisner

I like Shackleford.  He will appreciate the surface.  His Derby day and Metropolitan wins were on very fast, biased tracks.  I don't see who the competition is here.  Emcee has never gone more than 7f, Fed Biz is a 3yo.

My singles will likely be:

Shackleford

Power Broker

Shareta

Excelebration

01 Nov 2012 9:20 PM
KY VET

FRIDAY-juv.sprint-SUPERNINETYNINE

      marathon---best bet FAME AND GLORY

       JUV FILLIES-SKY LANTERN

       JUV FILLIES-EXECUTIVE PRIVILAGE

       F>M> TURF--THE FUGUE

       ladies CLASSIC--ROYAL DELTA     pick 6 ------35

                      12

                      346

                      128

                      49 10

                      6

pick 4         346

              128

              49 10

              6

01 Nov 2012 10:36 PM
JayJay

Pedigree Ann : I like your post a lot and I do remember Cambiosomethingsomething being unbeatable in the downhill races.  I'm a little confused though because I thought Moulin De Mougin is running in the 6th race on Friday but you said 2nd race on Saturday.  I'm sure you probably noticed that I'm nowhere near any of the favorites in this race, I think this is the one of the races this weekend that will produce a longshot winner.  Who's your pick for the Ladies Classic ?  

Rusty :  Excelebration may have only lost to Frankel but I don't think that matters where he's running next.   He's going up against Wise Dan and I consider Dan having the homecourt advantage and he had to travel a long way to race.  I also don't know if Excelebration will like the hard firm course at SA.  On the other hand, Excelebration could end up liking this course and dominate the race, and win by many lengths.  He's definitely a legitimate 2nd favorite in this race but I'm not playing both together.  I'm probably trying to find excuse not to bet excelebration but I'm just dead set at Dan being the best bet of the whole weekend.  I'll probably end up singling Wise Dan in the P6.

I feel the same about Shareta not liking this course.  

I'm surprised at the lack of Horse of the Year talk, but maybe that's going to start on Sunday.

01 Nov 2012 11:36 PM
THE KEYMASTER

Good stuff on the UK courses. I got quite busy at the end of the work day and then took care of errands after work to lessen the load for tomorrow and Saturday in hopes to focus on Breeder's Cup. Although I watch a fair amout of European racing, I would have had to look it up with the exception of Newmarket, Ascot, or Epsom.

There appears to be an error in the DRF PPs for the Marathon... Nick Petro, Jr. is listed as the jockey for #7 Not Abroad but according to Equibase, the correct jockey is Nick J. Petro. I assume Equibase to be correct as Nick J. Petro has been riding the horse and Nick Petro, Jr. has yet to win a race in 14 career attempts.

I think Not Abroad has a chance and I think the morning line is backwards between him and Eldaafer, whom also has a chance. I would be surprised if Eldaafer goes off at higher odds than Not Abroad. I might just box them in the exacta in hopes that Fame And Glory isn't the same stayer he was, that he doesn't handle dirt, and that he struggles with what looks to be a decent pace.

01 Nov 2012 11:40 PM
Pete Denk

Keelerman-

George Vancouver has been facing good ones in Europe, and therefor he can win this race. But I didn't love what I saw on video. I want a little more heart/grit than what I saw from him.

I like the Americans in the Juve Turf.

01 Nov 2012 11:42 PM
Pete Denk

Rusty-  I am checking to see if Breeders' Cup has a different takeout than regular Santa Anita. Just sent a mssg to HANA.

www.horseplayersassociation.org/hanatrackratingsbyoverallscore2012.html

01 Nov 2012 11:43 PM
Pete Denk

The horse few ppl are talking about in the Classic is FLAT OUT.

01 Nov 2012 11:45 PM
Footlick

JayJay-Shareta has performed better on softer ground this year than last, but is considered much better on firm turf.  SNA also appreciates a firmer turf as well as a left-handed course.  IMO, they are both dangerous.

02 Nov 2012 1:49 AM
Footlick

Pete- he has hoof issues, doesn't he?  Is that really a good mix with Santa Anita?  Plus the fact that he is a different horse away from Belmont.  He could surprise and win, but my money won't be on him and if he beats me he does.

02 Nov 2012 1:54 AM
Footlick

If the turf were softer I would be all over Ridasiyna, but I think it may be too firm for her.  She won on "quick" ground but lost on "firm", that according to her trainer. But her Opera win was powerful.

02 Nov 2012 1:59 AM
JayJay

Also like Noble Tune and Gervinho longshots in the Juvenile Turf.  On the trainer angle, I'll be looking at Chad Brown's horses all weekend, or at least I'll try and remember to lol.  I think he's got a good shot at winning multiple BC races on both days.

Forecast for a warm california sunshine on Friday (74) and Saturday (82).

02 Nov 2012 3:10 AM
Pete Denk

JayJay I like both of those -- Noble Tune and Gervinho.

02 Nov 2012 3:42 AM
JayJay

Footlick : I like SNA as well so he'll probably be in my P6 but still not sure I'll have Shareta in there.  I liked her in the Arc but I don't know about here, not that the american horses are tougher but it's almost a totally different world I think.  I'll probably let her beat me.

Like your picks by the way, hope you hit the big ones today!

Good luck to all !

02 Nov 2012 9:27 AM
Rusty Weisner

Pete,

Thanks.  I'll await that cold wet fish without enthusiasm.

I couldn't find even the regular takeout information at the Santa Anita website, by the way.  

02 Nov 2012 10:03 AM
Footlick

Didn't like her in this year's Arc.  Course was way too soft for her.  You never know how the Euros will run, so it is always a risk with them, so we will see.

Good luck to all today and tomorrow!

02 Nov 2012 10:05 AM
Karen in Texas

Pete---I like Flat Out, but hasn't he been working in bar shoes? (Hoof issues, as Footlick said.)

JayJay---Moulin de Mougin is an also eligible this P.M. She's scheduled for a preview stakes race tomorrow.

02 Nov 2012 10:44 AM
Rusty Weisner

JayJay,

Well argued.  While I'm singling both those two, I'm also playing tickets the other way, with other singles.  

Though no one asked, bets will look something like this (I've got a $350 limit)....

P4 R4-7 ($60): Artigiano, George Vancouver Fantastic Moon, Dundonnell (statistically inside posts here are advantageous and the English bookmakers' odds dropped slightly with the post position draw)/

Teddy's Promise, Dust and Diamonds, Turbulent Descent (recent change of barn), Musical Romance, Groupie Doll, Switch/ Shackleford /

(biting my knuckles here in the Turf Sprint:  throwing out classic turf sprinters and taking all horses with positive experience on the course and one turnback longshot) California Flag, Unbridled Note, Upgrade, Mizdirection, Chosen Miracle, Star Spangled Banner

P3 R6-8 ($25):

Shackleford, Jersey Town, Fed Biz, Emcee, Tapizar/

1,2,5,6,9,10,11,12,13,14/

Power Broker

P3 R7-9 ($25)

1,2,5,6,9,10,11,12,13,14/

Power Broker, Shanghai Bobby, Capo Bastone, Title Contender, Fortify/

Shareta

P3 R7-9 ($25)

1,2,5,6,9,10,11,12,13,14/

Power Broker/

Shareta, St. Nick, Trailblazer (ok, watched replay), Point of Entry, Slim Shadey

P3 R8-10 ($10)

Power Broker/

1,3,5,11,12/

Coil, Capital Account, Jimmy Creed, Amazombie (not creative; all out of the same race, playing against the Vosburgh and its high Beyer)

P4 R9-12 ($24):

Shareta/

Coil, Capital Account, Jimmy Creed, Amazombie/

Wise Dan, Obviously, Excelebration, Moonlight Cloud/

Game On Dude, Ron the Greek, Pool Play

P4 R9-12 ($30)

Shareta, St. Nicky, Trailblazer, Point of Entry, Slim Shadey/

Amazombie, Jimmy Creed, Coil, Capital Account/

Excelebration/

Game on Dude, Ron the Greek, Pool Play

P4 R9-12 ($90)

1,3,5,11,12/

2,4,8,11/

2,3,6,9/

Game on Dude, Ron the Greek

P3 R10-12 ($45)

2,4,8,11,Trinniberg/

ALL/

Game on Dude, Ron the Greek

Much of my day is going to come down to whether I've correctly picked the Santa Anita race over the off-track Vosburgh.

I've actually come out narrowly ahead both of the past two years (before that the only two I'd played were the Volponi and High Chapparal/Johar years).  Last year I singled something on the undercard in a Pick3 and got the 41-1 in the crappy Marathon, then singled Regally Ready in a Pick 3...then lost most of what I won in the late Pick 4.  Two years ago I singled Big Drama and got four very chalky Pick 3's around that and the Uncle Mo/Goldikova races in the middle part of the day.  Again, I got knocked out of the late Pick 4 despite singling Blame and liking Dangerous Midge.

02 Nov 2012 11:07 AM
Minnesota Kid

Rusty-

Takeout info at Santa Anita--

WPS=15.43%

Exactas=22.68%

Tris,Supers,P3,P4,P6=23.68%

P5=14%

02 Nov 2012 11:12 AM
JayJay

KiT : Thanks for that info, glad you told me so I can bet her tomorrow, otherwise I probably would miss it lol.  I challenge you to a 6 race contest!!  :)  The last 3 BC today and last 3 BC tomorrow.  If I win, you buy me dinner, if you lose, you buy me dinner and I get the handicapping crown :

SA Friday :

07th : 2

08th : 2

09th : 5

SA Saturday :

10th : 11

11th : 2

12th : 10

Rusty : Like the fact you put a limit to your bets, I try to do the same.  I'm going to see if I can hit anything at all with a $300 limit.  Most of my bets will be on the P6.  

You and Footlick like Jimmy Creed, have to take a look at that horse...

Alright, I've done my juju prayer, my superstitous 3 spins both ways, put on dirty socks and I'm off to the track.  

02 Nov 2012 12:22 PM
Kevin

Here are my Friday Plays...haven't handicapped Saturday yet.

Race 1) WPS 3

Race 2) Pick 3 5,7,10/2,4,6,7,8/3,5

Race 2) WPS 2

Race 5) WPS 6

Race 6) Tri 3,5/3,4,5,6/3,4,5,6,10,13

Race 7) Win 2

Race 10) Big show bet 9

02 Nov 2012 1:09 PM
Rusty Weisner

JayJay,

I probably won't play that late $90 Pick 4; doesn't leave enough room for longshots.

02 Nov 2012 1:22 PM
LAZMANICK

BC Nov 2-12

Race 4 – Juvenile Sprint – Pass (Lasix issue)

Race 5 – Marathon

• 7 – Not Abroad

• 10 – Eldaafer

• 6 – Calidoscopio

• 12 – Worth Repeating

Race 6 – Juv Filly Turf – Pass (Lasix issue)

Race 7 – Juv Filly – Pass (Lasix ssue)

Race 8 – F & Mare Turf

• 8 – Nahrain

• 9 – Marketing Mix

• 11 – I’m a Dreamer

• 6 – Lady of Shamrock

Race 9 – Lady’s Classic

• 5 – Awesome Feather

• 4 – Questing

• 6 – Royal Delta

• 8 – Love & Pride

02 Nov 2012 2:10 PM
Karen in Texas

JayJay--- What?? I'm afraid I'll have to respectfully decline that particular challenge--LOL! Besides, I can't really argue with any of your picks. Today's Race 9 could be won by at least four of the entrants in my muddled estimation; and tomorrow's Race 11 seems the same. You would beat me regardless!

02 Nov 2012 3:02 PM
Kevin

Are the races televised anywhere?  TVG isn't showing them.  

02 Nov 2012 3:08 PM
Kevin

Not a good start.  I never bet a horse off a long layoff and it cost me in the pick 3 today.  

02 Nov 2012 3:31 PM
Karen in Texas

Kevin---Yes, HRTV and NBCSN are televising the races, and HRTV.com is live-streaming them.

02 Nov 2012 3:35 PM
THE KEYMASTER

For the purpose of the contest, I will take #6 Hazardous in SA race 4 (Juvenile Sprint).

02 Nov 2012 3:40 PM
-Keelerman

Let the Breeders' Cup begin! Here are my picks for Friday's races . . .

Juvenile Sprint: Merit Man

Marathon: Calidoscopio

Juvenile Fillies Turf: Spring Venture

Juvenile Fillies: Executiveprivilege

Filly and Mare Turf: The Fugue

Ladies' Classic: Royal Delta

Good luck, everyone!

-Keelerman

02 Nov 2012 4:02 PM
-Keelerman

Pete -- thanks for your thoughts on George Vancouver!

02 Nov 2012 4:09 PM
Rusty Weisner

Feeling lukewarm about Power Broker.  Considering Rumor as a longshot in FMSprint.  Like Dundonnell more than before:  should be near the pace and won't have too much to do late.

02 Nov 2012 4:09 PM
Pedigree Ann

Waiting for Calidoscopio in the Marathon. We don't get as many South Americans up here as we used to - the oil money is picking them up for racing in Dubai. But Invasor (Horse of the Year and BC Classic winner) was only a big fish in a small pond (Uruguay) back home. Bayakoa, Paseana, Lord at War, Gentlemen, Candy Ride - the best Argentines can compete here.

Calidoscopio is the only horse in the race who has won dirt marathon races of this distance. And he's been running with the champions in Argentina, even as an 8yo.

02 Nov 2012 4:10 PM
Kevin

Crazy start.  Winless horse wins the Breeders Cup.  

02 Nov 2012 4:16 PM
Kevin

Wonder how many PIck 6 tickets are alive.  Carryover to tomorrow and I might play.

02 Nov 2012 4:23 PM
-Keelerman

Well, it certainly was nice to see D. Wayne Lukas back in the winner's circle. A spectacular upset with a horse that had never won a race before. Congratulations to Lukas, Bluegrass Hall, Rajiv Maragh, and Hightail!

Looking through everyone's selections here, it seems that no one had Hightail. So, using the same $2 win/place system that Pete employed during our handicapping contest on "Super Saturday," here are our standings after the first race of the Breeders' Cup:

1st JayJay $2.40

1st Keelerman $2.40

1st Ky Vet $2.40

(Anyone who picked Super Ninety Nine got switched to favored Merit Man, who paid $2.40 to place.)

-Keelerman

02 Nov 2012 4:40 PM
Kevin

Love the 6 in the Marathon.  Shocked his odds are so high.  I must be missing something.  

02 Nov 2012 4:44 PM
-Keelerman

Unbelievable! Spectacular! Calidoscopio was simply stunning! When he was so far back coming down the stretch for the first time, I figured there was no way he could possibly win. But then he made this huge, sustained run for what I guess was close to five furlongs, and he just roared past everyone! What a performance!

02 Nov 2012 5:01 PM
Footlick

I knew Ceiling Kitty would either be a good pick or a total bust.  Liked my top two in the Marathon, but only bet Calidoscopio, and that paid off.

02 Nov 2012 5:04 PM
-Keelerman

Here are the standings after the Marathon . . .

1st Keelerman $38.80

2nd Kevin $36.40

3rd JayJay $2.40

3rd Ky Vet $2.40

02 Nov 2012 5:15 PM
Kevin

Going with the 8 in the 6th.  

02 Nov 2012 5:25 PM
LAZMANICK

Ann and Kellerman nice score in the Marathon!!!

02 Nov 2012 5:28 PM
-Keelerman

Here are the standings after the Juvenile Fillies Turf . . .

1st Keelerman $38.80

2nd Kevin $36.40

3rd Footlick $24.80

4th JayJay $2.40

4th Ky Vet $2.40

02 Nov 2012 5:43 PM
Footlick

Another nice bet, and I actually picked her on top here for a change!  Nice stretch run by Flotilla.

02 Nov 2012 5:49 PM
Kevin

Footlick; great pick. Had the 4, 6 underneath the 3/5.  But my horses didn't run.

Race 7:  2

02 Nov 2012 5:54 PM
LAZMANICK

Footlick

Good score on Flotilla!!!!

02 Nov 2012 6:08 PM
LAZMANICK

Kevin

Keep it going!!!!

02 Nov 2012 6:09 PM
-Keelerman

Here are the standings after the Juvenile Fillies . . .

1st Keelerman $42.20

2nd Kevin $39.80

3rd Footlick $24.80

4th JayJay $5.80

4th Ky Vet $5.80

02 Nov 2012 6:17 PM
Footlick

Nice race by Beholder.  I was too chicken to put her on top.  Didn't bet the race, luckily

02 Nov 2012 6:19 PM
Footlick

Kevin- thanks.  I was pretty confident with her.  I know about horses not running too.  Plenty have done that to me- lol.

02 Nov 2012 6:22 PM
Footlick

I took a couple of chances in the next two races with my top picks.  Hope they pay off, or else I may be at the bottom again.

02 Nov 2012 6:25 PM
Kevin

The #2 had the lead and ducked way out.  Darn.....

Going with the 12 in the 8th.  

02 Nov 2012 6:27 PM
Footlick

Odds are great for many of these.  Can't pass up win bets on multiple Euros.

02 Nov 2012 6:46 PM
-Keelerman

Just realized that I forgot to credit Kevin and I for our place money on Calidoscopio. Thus, the updated standings are:

1st Keelerman $58.20

2nd Kevin $55.80

3rd Footlick $24.80

4th JayJay $5.80

4th Ky Vet $5.80

02 Nov 2012 6:56 PM
Footlick

JayJay- congrats on Zagora. Had money on her because of her odds, but didn't pick her for the contest.  Monarchs Matt had her too!  Congrats to both.

02 Nov 2012 7:03 PM
Kevin

Ladies Classic is a tough race.  Wouldn't be shocked if any of 6 win.  

I'll go with the 6.  

02 Nov 2012 7:13 PM
-Keelerman

Congratulations on Zagora, JayJay! Here are the standings after the Filly and Mare Turf . . .

1st Keelerman $58.20

2nd Kevin $55.80

3rd JayJay $34.00

4th Footlick $24.80

5th Monarchos Matt $28.20

6th Ky Vet $5.80

02 Nov 2012 7:30 PM
Footlick

Wow!  Amazing race by Royal Delta.  My pick ran a gutsy third, mad My Miss Aurelia ran a great race.  But Roual Delta has suddenly changed her racing style.  Congrats to all who picked her on top.

02 Nov 2012 7:45 PM
-Keelerman

Here are the final standings!

1st Keelerman $67.20

2nd Kevin $64.80

3rd Monarchos Matt $37.20

4th JayJay $34.00

5th Footlick $24.80

6th Ky Vet $14.80

Congratulations, everyone! We all picked at least one winner!

02 Nov 2012 7:53 PM
Footlick

Mad should have been and, not mad My Miss Aurelia ran well at all.  And I see I am at my customary spot in the contest.  But I played heavily on Flotilla and Calidoscopio so I can't be upset.  Flotilla was my best bet of today. She ran like it.  An easy win from a classy French filly.

02 Nov 2012 8:08 PM
Rusty Weisner

Congratulations winners all.

Can't play that early Pick4 tomorrow.  The Turf Sprint is too tough for me; I can see 10 horses winning. I'll stick to Pick 3's early.  I'll play Shackleford in Pick3's R4-6, R5-7.  I'll single California Flag in two Pick3's -- why outthink myself: the horse is unbeatable on the course and the post, per statistics, is not a disadvantage.  I'll also single Power Broker in Pick 3's.

I'll stick with Shareta as a single.  She beat the winner of the Arc on firm ground.  Excelebration, too.  Why not?  Good odds on maybe a great horse.

Good luck!

02 Nov 2012 9:05 PM
Rusty Weisner

Nah, not that either -- California Flag looks to have lost a step. No single in that race, no Pick 4.

02 Nov 2012 9:15 PM
Carlos in Cali

Footlick,I also had Flotilla,knowing with clear sailing she'd be flying.. good job,the Euro's were do for a win in that race.Sky Lantern had nowhere to go down the lane.

Put some money on Hightail,as I mentioned him on today's live blog that I liked him on the cut-back and his best races were sprinting. Hit both exactas at nice prices using a 4-horse box in both races, other than that.. nada!

02 Nov 2012 9:15 PM
Footlick

I really loved Flotilla in this race.  There were quite a few fillies, though who were trapped and had nowhere to go.  But that is racing.  I picked Almudena in the Marathon on here, but ended up on Calidoscopico.  Congrats on Hightail.  I kept looking at him and almost would pick him, but just like Beholder, chickened out.  I couldn't pass up 9-1 on Zagora though, and was rewarded.  The Fugue was the best in the race but didn't have the trip.  Really wanted Lady of Shamrock, but you just can't be that far back early against this quality of field.  The trip is so important at Santa Anita.

Anyway, on to tomorrow.

02 Nov 2012 9:47 PM
Footlick

Rusty- I love Shareta and SNA and POE.  Who knows who I'll settle on.  The trip will be so important.  But, singling her may not be the worst thing you could do.

I like California Flag, but I think he would be a shaky single.  That being said, with my record handicapping the Breeder's Cup, he'll win easy.  Just do what your gut tells you to do.  I posted picks for fun, knowing that I would change them when I bet if I felt differently.  Just use your instincts.

02 Nov 2012 9:56 PM
KY VET

If i post on here i have been losing........no post, i seem to win......must be fluke......sat picks..juv turf-NOBLE TUNE

      fm sprint-GROUPIE DOLL

      MILE-----EMCEE

      turf sprint-longshot of day Corporate jungle

       JUV-SHANGHAI BOBBY

       TURF_SHARETA

       SPRINT-JIMMY CREED

       MILE TURF-WISE DAN

       CLASSIC-longshot MUCHO MACHO MAN

02 Nov 2012 10:02 PM
Pete Denk

Ladies Clssic TRi was my only hit of the day.

Ron the Greek has little or no chance on the surface we saw today.

02 Nov 2012 10:38 PM
Footlick

It sure looks that way Pete.  

02 Nov 2012 11:54 PM
JayJay

Footlick :  Nice job on Calidoscope and Flotilla!! nice prices.  Hope you loaded up on them.  

Yeah, I had a P3 singling Zagora and My Miss Aurelia and all on the last race.  I thought for sure Royal Delta was going to give in but she showed she's the best, I'm happy with My Miss Aurelias run.  I'm not sure what happened to Awesome Feather, she was already running halfway through the race.  I thought for sure this would be her shining moment.

I hit quite a few today so I'm good for tomorrow.  Most of my hits are not SA lol, got lucky at CD and Woodbine.  Already have my P6 tickets and I singled Wise Dan and RTG.

Keelerman :  Thanks! You didn't do too bad either hehe, nice job!!  and thanks for doing the handicapping scoring even though it's not official.  It's cool to see the results.  

Pete : Tomorrow will be a hot day and I think that will play into RTG's favor.  

03 Nov 2012 12:14 AM
Footlick

Thanks JayJay.  I did have nice bets on each as well as Zagora.  In contests like this I try to find the value horse  who I think has a chance and try not to play a favorite on top.  Sometimes you can't help it, but nowadays I really just bet win bets on horses like Calidoscopio and Flotilla, and Zagora when I think I shouldn't be getting 9-1.

03 Nov 2012 12:39 AM
Footlick

Laz- I missed your comment.  Sorry.  Thanks!  

03 Nov 2012 12:41 AM
Kevin

I can't believe someone hit the PIck 6 with all those early prices.  

My only cash of the day was in the Marathon, but it paid for the rest of the days bets.  Finished even.  

The best longshot I see tomorrow is the #7 in the 4th.  

03 Nov 2012 1:46 AM
Minnesota Kid

I feel sorry for pete denk-

having to moderate the posts of a large collection of nitwits and

03 Nov 2012 1:54 AM
Minnesota Kid

I feel sorry for Pete Denk--

It must be equal parts difficult and annoying, having to moderate the comments of such a large collection of nitwits and pretentious blowhards.

KY VET-

I am sure that I told you several months ago that no one, absolutely no one, believes that you are a professional horseplayer. Do yourself, and everyone that reads this blog a favor--take a long, hearty drink from a tall glass of STFU.

03 Nov 2012 2:04 AM
Mike from Michigan

my best plays for Saturday are

Brown Almighty

Shackleford

Shanghai Bobby

Game On Dude

Turbulent Descent

Best Bet on Saturday-Shanghai Bobby

03 Nov 2012 7:43 AM
Rusty Weisner

Thanks everyone for the track updates.  Pete Denk:  that must be hard to sit on a horse all year and then account for track bias, agonizing, in fact.  I wish you luck.  I will probably keep RthG but expand my picks in the Classic -- maybe Fort Larned or MMM?  Have to see.

Footlick,

Yes, I talked myself out of Cal. Flag pretty quickly.

I'm actually singling Dundonnell in one inexpensive P3 -- I like it that he won't get too far behind the pace in a fast course with a short stretch.

My others:

Shackleford -- I like him on a surface as fast as possible, like KY Derby day.

Shareta (beat winner of Arc and lost by a neck to seem on more favorable ground)

Excelebration -- Let's see!

Good luck!

03 Nov 2012 9:01 AM
Plod Boy Phil

- The real or perceived 'speed bias' of one day does not guarantee the existence of the same on the following day. Bet your personal overlays and deal with Bias data the next time out. Quality Bias interpretation requires more than zigging and zagging with each result.

- The Racing Flow boys look forward to Gabriel Charles in today's 2nd at SA.  

- Pete:  We followed you and Kerry last Sunday on TrackFacts LIVE. I was intriqued by the concepts of herd chaos and emotional conformation.

Regards.

03 Nov 2012 10:25 AM
jimthepimp

Plays for the day:-)

Juvenile Turf - Artigiano

Filly & Mare Sprint - Groupie Doll

Dirt Mile - Emcee

Turf Sprint - Reneesgotzip

Juvenile - Power Broker

BC Turf - Shareta

Sprint - Fast Bullet

Mile - Moonlight Cloud

Classic - Game on Dude ( use the 1,9 in 3rd and 4th of super )

03 Nov 2012 11:37 AM
LAZMANICK

BC Nov 3-12

Juvenile Turf:

• 2 – Artigiano

• 6 – Dundonnell

• 3 – George Vancouver

• 8 – Balance the Books

F & M Sprint:

• 9 – Groupie Doll

• 3 – Dust and Diamonds

• 8 – Musical Romance

• 6 – Turbulent Descent

Dirt Mile:

• 7 – Emcee

• 3 – Jersey Town

• 6 – Shackleford

• 1 – Rail Trip

Turf Sprint:

• 10 – Corporate Jungle

• 13 – Unbridled’s Note

• 7 – Reneesgotzip

• 9 – Bridgetown

Juvenile:

• 9 – Power Broker

• 4 – Shanghai Bobby

• 6 – Dynamic Sky

• 8 - Fortify

Turf:

• 9 – Dullahan

• 1 – Point of Entry

• 5 – Shareta

• 3 – St Nicholas Abby

Sprint:

• 8 – Capital Account

• 11 – Amazombie

• 2 – Jimmy Creed

• 4 – Coil

Turf Mile:

• Animal Kingdom

• Wise Dan

• Excelebration

• Moonlight Cloud

Classic:

• To Honor and Serve

• Mucho Macho Man

• Game On Dude

• Fort Larned

03 Nov 2012 12:33 PM
Pedigree Ann

If you ever have to define what a "tour de force" is, just show a tape of Royal Delta's second BC Distaff win.

03 Nov 2012 12:44 PM
Footlick

Laz- I was really considering THAS.  I like that he is on the outside and he is training great.  You are taking some chances with your picks!  Hope you do well!

03 Nov 2012 1:02 PM
Footlick

Laz- I was really considering THAS.  I like that he is on the outside and he is training great.  You are taking some chances with your picks!  Hope you do well!

03 Nov 2012 1:05 PM
Kevin

1st race at SA inside speed still held.  

03 Nov 2012 1:14 PM
LAZMANICK

Footlick

I have a feeling when it comes to Dullahan and Animal Kingdom.  Both are deserved longshots to win for sure.

As for THAS, I think he is a much better horse going around two turns.  Strangely, I'm not that convinced that GOD is unbeatable in this race like many think he is.  I still think that in a large field like this he's suspect to get the 10F.

The key today is how the main track plays.  Yesterday, with the exception of the Marathon, every other dirt race was won on the lead and on the inside.  True, Hightail came from 4th to win for Lucas, but he outran the favorite while sticking to the rail.  Mike Smith realized this to and it certainly played in his decision to take Royal Delta out fast and keep her on the inside.  If the track plays like that again today then I can see GOD having a big chance.

03 Nov 2012 1:44 PM
Footlick

Laz- the dirt track is still speed favoring, as the commentators are saying on the broadcast.  So, I'm figuring unless some of the closers can be versatile and closer to the lead, they might be compromised.  THAS is training brilliantly by all reports and has the right running style to be competitive.  It does seem like the track is playing into GoD's hands.

03 Nov 2012 2:09 PM
Kevin

Hard to read bias after the 3d race.  Politically correct was off the rail and 10 lengths back but still came to win.  But the lead horses went suicidal pace for the 1/2.  Still the 5 held for 2d.  NOt sure how to read that.  I did have the 3 to win though.  

03 Nov 2012 2:14 PM
Kevin

Race 4; going with Noble Tune.  Closed into no speed before, should have better pace set up today.  

Also going Trifecta:  9/2,6,11/2,4,6,7,8,10,11

03 Nov 2012 2:27 PM
-Keelerman

Happy Breeders' Cup Saturday everyone! Here are my selections . . .

Juvenile Turf: George Vancouver

Filly and Mare Sprint: Groupie Doll

Dirt Mile: Rail Trip

Turf Sprint: California Flag

Juvenile: Shanghai Bobby

Turf: Shareta

Sprint: Fast Bullet

Mile: Moonlight Cloud

Classic: Game On Dude

Good luck, everyone!

03 Nov 2012 2:55 PM
Footlick

Here we go again.  Played my top 2 picks to win, so I won, but not in the contest.

03 Nov 2012 3:02 PM
Kevin

Race 5) #3.  Groupie Doll should win, but think the place on the #3 will pay better.  

03 Nov 2012 3:16 PM
LAZMANICK

Footlick

You were touting George Vancouver all along. Even if you didn't take him in the contest at least you have some real money to show for it.  Congrats.  Same with Kellerman.

03 Nov 2012 3:31 PM
-Keelerman

The first Breeders' Cup race of Saturday is in the history books! Here are our standings for Saturday . . .

1st Keelerman $31.60

2nd Kevin $6.00

3rd Ky Vet $6.00

And here are our standings with Friday's results added in . . .

1st Keelerman $98.80

2nd Kevin $70.80

3rd Monarchos Matt $37.20

4th JayJay $34.00

5th Footlick $24.80

6th Ky Vet $20.80

-Keelerman

03 Nov 2012 3:36 PM
Footlick

Nice run by Groupie Doll.  Switch had no chance the way the track was playing.  But, I don't pick horses that low of odds, even just to get a win. And I didn't get a win- lol.

03 Nov 2012 3:44 PM
Footlick

Thx, Laz.  The trouble with these contests is that everyone should have to put their picks in at the same time, so people who did all their picks before the Friday card aren't penalized.  I thought all the picks had to be made by Friday.  Oh well, I've been at the bottom of these contests before.  No big deal.  And yes, Laz, at least I am making money with nice win bets on  horses.

03 Nov 2012 3:48 PM
Kevin

Going with Emcee in the Mile.  

03 Nov 2012 3:51 PM
-Keelerman

Here are the standings after the Filly and Mare Sprint . . .

1st Keelerman $37.60

2nd Ky Vet $12.00

3rd Kevin $10.20

4th Jimthepimp $6.00

5th Lazmanick $6.00

6th JayJay $4.20

And here are the cumulative Friday/Saturday standings . . .

1st Keelerman $98.80

2nd Kevin $70.80

3rd Monarchos Matt $37.20

4th JayJay $34.00

5th Footlick $24.80

6th Ky Vet $20.80

-Keelerman

03 Nov 2012 4:00 PM
Footlick

Nice.  I liked Tapizar and boxed him with Rail Trip, plus had a win bet on him.  Picked him second in the contest, but Rail Trip placed, so that will be a little addition.

03 Nov 2012 4:23 PM
-Keelerman

Here are the standings after the Dirt Mile . . .

1st Keelerman $46.00

2nd Ky Vet $12.00

3rd Kevin $10.20

4th Footlick $8.40

5th Jimthepimp $6.00

6th Lazmanick $6.00

7th JayJay $4.20

And here are the cumulative Friday/Saturday standings . . .

1st Keelerman $107.20

2nd Kevin $70.80

3rd Monarchos Matt $37.20

4th JayJay $34.00

5th Footlick $33.20

6th Ky Vet $20.80

7th Jimthepimp $6.00

7th Lazmanick $6.00

-Keelerman

03 Nov 2012 4:25 PM
-Keelerman

Great call on the Dirt Mile, Footlick! I'm glad to hear you're doing so well!

03 Nov 2012 4:37 PM
Kevin

Reneegotzip in the Turf Sprint

03 Nov 2012 4:42 PM
Footlick

Thanks!  Obviously you must be too, by the looks of things.  Yesterday, the two horses I was confident in won.  Today, I decided to go with George Vancouver instead of Artigiano, which paid off for me outside of the contest.  I thought Switch ran a great race given the way the track was playing.  Just couldn't pick Groupie Doll. Low odds are like poison ivy to me.  And, I stayed with my top two in the Mile, and again it paid off.  This is the first BC that I am actually doing well at the windows.  I'm not betting every race, just some.  Races I think I can make some money on.  I usually do not do well in US races.  Thanks again.

03 Nov 2012 4:48 PM
Footlick

Great race by Mizdirection!  I didn't bet this race.  Too wide open for me to be confident.  But glad she won.

03 Nov 2012 5:07 PM
Kevin

Pete, great call on Mizdirection.  Too bad odds went down so low.  

03 Nov 2012 5:09 PM
Footlick

Kevin- Reneesgotzip ran a great race too!  Her first on turf and on the downhill.  Nice pick.

03 Nov 2012 5:09 PM
-Keelerman

Here are the standings after the Turf Sprint . . .

1st Keelerman $46.00

2nd Footlick $31.60

3rd Ky Vet $12.00

4th Kevin $10.20

5th Jimthepimp $6.00

6th Lazmanick $6.00

7th JayJay $4.20

And here are the cumulative Friday/Saturday standings . . .

1st Keelerman $107.20

2nd Kevin $70.80

3rd Footlick $56.40

4th Monarchos Matt $37.20

5th JayJay $34.00

6th Ky Vet $20.80

7th Jimthepimp $6.00

7th Lazmanick $6.00

Another great pick, Footlick! You're moving up in the standings!

-Keelerman

03 Nov 2012 5:10 PM
Kevin

Power Broker in the Juvenile.  

03 Nov 2012 5:24 PM
Footlick

Thanks!  But given my history in these contests it won't last.....

03 Nov 2012 5:29 PM
Kevin

Trailblazer in the Turf

Trinniberg in the Spring

Ron the Greek in the Classic

03 Nov 2012 5:49 PM
Kevin

Oh; and Midnight Cloud in the MIle.

03 Nov 2012 5:50 PM
Footlick

Skipped this race at the window.  Pletcher finally wins a BC race.  Another win for Keelerman and I believe KY Vet had him too

03 Nov 2012 5:52 PM
-Keelerman

Here are the standings after the Juvenile . . .

1st Keelerman $54.00

2nd Footlick $31.60

3rd Ky Vet $20.00

4th Kevin $10.20

5th Jimthepimp $6.00

6th Lazmanick $6.00

7th JayJay $4.20

And here are the cumulative Friday/Saturday standings . . .

1st Keelerman $115.20

2nd Kevin $70.80

3rd Footlick $56.40

4th Monarchos Matt $37.20

5th JayJay $34.00

6th Ky Vet $28.80

7th Jimthepimp $6.00

7th Lazmanick $6.00

-Keelerman

03 Nov 2012 5:57 PM
Footlick

And now starts my decline - lol.  I was pretty confident in Shareta and St Nicholas Abbey.

03 Nov 2012 6:52 PM
-Keelerman

No change in the standings after the Turf.

03 Nov 2012 6:59 PM
Footlick

Ranagulzion!  You sure called this race.  Well done.

03 Nov 2012 7:05 PM
-Keelerman

Here are the standings after the Juvenile . . .

1st Keelerman $54.00

2nd Kevin $52.80

3rd Footlick $31.60

4th Ky Vet $20.00

5th Jimthepimp $6.00

6th Lazmanick $6.00

7th JayJay $4.20

And here are the cumulative Friday/Saturday standings . . .

1st Keelerman $115.20

2nd Kevin $113.40

3rd Footlick $56.40

4th Monarchos Matt $37.20

5th JayJay $34.00

6th Ky Vet $28.80

7th Jimthepimp $6.00

7th Lazmanick $6.00

Great call on the Sprint, Kevin!

-Keelerman

03 Nov 2012 7:11 PM
Footlick

Kevin had Trinniberg!  Well done.

03 Nov 2012 7:12 PM
Kevin

Thanks.  Wish I would have bet him bigger with real money.  

03 Nov 2012 7:31 PM
-Keelerman

Here are the standings after the Mile . . .

1st Keelerman $54.00

2nd Footlick $31.60

3rd Ky Vet $28.60

4th JayJay $12.80

5th Lazmanick $12.60

6th Kevin $10.20

7th Jimthepimp $6.00

And here are the cumulative Friday/Saturday standings . . .

1st Keelerman $115.20

2nd Kevin $70.80

3rd Footlick $56.40

4th JayJay $42.60

5th Ky Vet $37.40

6th Monarchos Matt $37.20

7th Lazmanick $12.60

8th Jimthepimp $6.00

-Keelerman

03 Nov 2012 7:46 PM
Footlick

I know Jay Jay had Wise Dan.  Congrats.  Who else had him?  Nice race by him, but would still like him to go there and run against them under their conditions.  But, he was the best of Excelebration and Moonlight Cloud today.

03 Nov 2012 7:46 PM
Footlick

The way the track is playing, does Pool Play have a chance?

03 Nov 2012 8:05 PM
LAZMANICK

Footlick:

Nothing against the Euro contingent.  They might have run out of their element but in a way so did Wise Dan.  The amazing thing is that the time was less than half a second off the world's record so no shame for those that ran.  I think that Wise Dan is a sensational horse, but I was really amazed with Animal Kingdom.  With clear sailing he might have won today. The good thing is that both Animal Kingdom and Wise Dan will be competing next year.

03 Nov 2012 8:07 PM
Footlick

Animal Kingdom ran a great race.  I'm just saying that Wise Dan was not as out of his element as horses who shipped across the pond and ran on a track totally foreign to them.  I like Wise Dan, but I want to see him do what Euros do.  I just wanted to say that before I start hearing how overrated Euro horses are.  You know it is going to happen.  Euros go through alot more than a horse who ships across the country.  And his time was great, but Obviously ran under 1:32 also on this course.  It is lightning fast.  JMO, and I know you have yours.  He is a wonderful horse.  But, reciprocation would be nice.  Sorry.

03 Nov 2012 8:19 PM
Footlick

Nice race by Fort Larned and Mucho Macho Man.  Congrats to any ho had Fort Larned!

03 Nov 2012 8:49 PM
Footlick

And Pete-Flat Out did well for a horse with bad feet on a very fast Cal track.

03 Nov 2012 8:51 PM
Kevin

Baffert just blamed Game On Dude's loss to Bejarano.  Unclassy in my opinion.  Dude was in position on the far turn and just wasn't good enough today.  

Smacking myself also for not playing the speed bias in the Classic.  Fort Larned, MMM, and Dude were the obvious fastest.  Box them in an exacta and get ten times my money.

I got two big winners all weekend (Marathon and Sprint).  But lost money overall.

Wish I was disciplined enough (and good enough) to know which races to bet and which ones to just watch. But I'm just as confidant before every race starts.  

03 Nov 2012 8:58 PM
LAZMANICK

Watching Baffert on TV, he's really ticked with Bejarno for taking GOD back and not running up on the lead, which it turns out was the right strategy with that speed bias still playing a big part.  That's why Mike Smith gunned MMM out right off the bat.

Footlick

I'm not trying to pick on the Euros.  The ones that raced tgoday have had a busy and probably tiring fall campaign.  But for all those (not including you of course) that think that N/A's best turf horses can't compete against the best, maybe THEY will quite being so arrogant.  

03 Nov 2012 8:58 PM
JayJay

Footlick :  I totally missed your pick of Tapizar, he ruined my P4 but it's awesome that you had him for the win and the exacta.  Not too bad for someone who is "bad" at handicapping american races hehe.  You're definitely looking like a PRO.  Picking favorites is not that hard, finding the real value horses is what makes a good handicapper and you've done that yesterday and today.  Good job!

As for the Classic, I'm not sure why Game On Dude was held back, the way the track was playing it's just unbelievable the way Bejarano rode him, everyone on this blog knew speed was holding!!   I had 3 horses ending on my P4, GoD, MMM and RTG and got nothing to show for it lol.  Congrats to Fort Larned and Brian Hernandez, he rode a great race.  I think Chantal should've been allowed to stay on GoD, she would've had him on the lead.

03 Nov 2012 9:17 PM
-Keelerman

Something went wrong with that last score update . . . somehow Kevin's score reverted back to its pre-Sprint level :) . . . but here are the corrected final standings!

1st Keelerman $54.00

2nd Kevin $52.80

3rd Ky Vet $35.20

4th Footlick $31.60

5th JayJay $12.80

6th Lazmanick $12.60

7th Jimthepimp $6.00

And here are the cumulative Friday/Saturday standings . . .

1st Keelerman $115.20

2nd Kevin $113.40

3rd Footlick $56.40

4th Ky Vet $44.00

5th JayJay $42.60

6th Monarchos Matt $37.20

7th Lazmanick $12.60

8th Jimthepimp $6.00

Well, another great Breeders' Cup is in the history books! Congratulations on fine selections, everyone!

Now -- in the second paragraph of this blog post, Pete states that "As soon as the two-year-old colts hit the finish line in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, Derby talk is fair game in my book."

Well, the two-year-old colts hit the finish line -- let the Kentucky Derby Trail begin!

-Keelerman

03 Nov 2012 9:30 PM
Footlick

Laz- i don't want to go on about it.  When Wise Dan goes there for even one major Mile event in Europe I will applaud them.  I hope they do send Animal Kingdom over, as they have mentioned.  There needs to be reciprocation so Americans can see how difficult it is.  That is all I want.  Fairness.  I doubt it will happen.  Beating Euros here on a turf course/freeway is totally different than beating Euros on their undulating courses that are rarely ever firm.

03 Nov 2012 9:43 PM
Kevin

JayJay, great point with jockey change on Game on Dude.  I never understood why Southerland was taken off him to begin with.  

Who else is feeling a little let down?  6 months is a long time to wait for the Derby.  

03 Nov 2012 9:55 PM
Footlick

Thanks JayJay- I bet the Juv Turf and won.  I lost the FM Sprint and in hindsight should not have bet it, but I thought they would have Switch closer to the pace with that speed work they put in her.  Then I bet pretty heavily on the Dirt Mile.  I didn't bet the Turf Sprint, but I thought it was strange tactics to send Starspangledbanner to the lead, and should have given me warning signals that the turf may be too hard and speed favoring for the Euros in the rest of the races.  Bet the Turf anyway and lost.  Didn't bet anything after that.  But I made a nice profit because of the horses I hit on.  I'm still not a great handicapper of American races.  I did feel strongly about Tapizar,  Rail Trip, and George Vancouver, Calidoscopico and Flotilla.  Notice three of them were foreign horses.  And Zagora is a transplanted French filly.  Pretty Euro slanted- lol.  But thanks for the props.  Hope you did well with your exotics!

03 Nov 2012 10:16 PM
Ranagulzion

Footlick,

Thanks. I presume you're referring to my comments above on the Sprint, won by Trinniberg followed by The Lumber Guy and Smiling Tiger (I actually called the trifecta on Steve Haskins blog).

I submitted all my selections on here, taking my queue from you on Friday, which included winners, Hightail in the 2YO Sprint, Groupie Doll & Switch(show) in the F&M Sprint, Wise Dan & Obviously(picked to run 2nd behind WD) in the Mile,  Noble Tune(picked to win) & George Vancouver(picked to show) in the 2YO Turf and finally Mucho Macho Man (picked to win) & Flat Out(picked to show) in the BC Classic, but for some unknown reason Pete didn't post them. I didn't bother to resubmit. However I see that you had a lot of fun on here.

The most outstanding performances of this year's Breeder's Cup were those of Wise Dan (dominant and track record setting), Groupie Doll (facile and completely out of class) and Royal Delta (resolute and convinving). Wise Dan has the HOTY title in the bag and doesn't really need to run in the Clarke to insure it).

In terms of the best race to watch, I'd have to say the BC Classic was quite spectacular and a fitting climax involving a memorable stretch duel between the tenacious Fort Larned under birthday boy Hernandez and the imposing Mucho Macho Man, driven to the max by Hall of Famer, Mike Smith. This race was exhillarating as the top two separated themselves from the pack for the stretch duel. The Dirt seemed to favour front runners over the two days as only the Marathon winner Caleidoscopio won from "out of the clouds".  It is noteworthy however that for the first time, there was no home court advantage out West. I look orward to Gunbow's interpretation of that fact.

Regarding Excelebration's performance vis a vis Wise Dan and the Frankel appraisal, I don't think we can conclude much more than that Wise Dan is one of the top two turf milers on the Planet thios year.  I hope that he stays sound and that the connections become really hungry for new frontiers with him next year such as trips to Dubai and Royal Ascot to strut his stuff.  He is equally good on soft as he is on firm turf, not to mention Synthetics and Dirt. What a gelding!!!

As for the 2YOs and forcasting next seasons major Classic contenders, this year's BCJ will be of little help (except for He's Had Enough). I can say categorically that Shanghai Bobby is not a good Triple Crown prospect. He is a very good sprinter/miler that has class and a lot of heart but will not be competitive in the Triple Crown if we have a good crop of 3YOs next year. He is a worthy 2YO champion nevertheless.  

03 Nov 2012 10:20 PM
JayJay

Thanks Footlick, yeah, as I said to Rusty earlier in my post, Wise Dan has an advantage over Excelebration because he had to fly over here and he might not like the course.  I had the exacta and trifecta but missed the superfecta because I didn't play Excelebration at all in any of my tickets.  I was hoping Suggestive Boy would grab a piece but wasn't going to happen.

Laz : I'm with Baffert on this, I don't know what was going through Bejarano's head.  I'm sure Baffert didn't say anything to him before the race because tactic should've been obvious.  I'm not a jockey and I'm far from knowing what it's like to actually ride a horse in the biggest race of the year but Bejarano is one of the best jockeys in the nation and for him to ride GoD the way he did, there's just no excuse in my opinion.

Now on to the Horse of the Year, my vote goes to Zenyatta.  I just want to get that out of the way, I'll be voting for her for the next 2 more years, then after that, her babies will be the HOTY.  As for the active runners, I think Little Mike should get some votes.  This horse tackled and ran against the best horses in the Arlington and today in the BC Turf.

03 Nov 2012 10:34 PM
Footlick

Yes, Ranagulzion.  I saw you had touted him and The Lumber Guy, and looked up your prediction on Steve's blog and saw the tri.  Kudos!  Congrats!  As to the times, I think we are back to the classic California freeway I remember in my younger days.

03 Nov 2012 10:55 PM
Footlick

Congrats to Keelerman for the win and to Kevin for a strong runner-up finish!

04 Nov 2012 12:18 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

Chantal would have won !!!! She was in the dog house, now Bejarano is in the dog house. Back to excercise rider for awhile for Bejarano while former dog house member Martin Garcia gets more mounts, along with Talamo until he is in the dog house. Baffert is a tough master. Chantal finally got fed up, and took herself off of all mounts. It's a dog eat dog business. It ain't no Gravy train. Baffert should put himself in the dog house for awhile after that dismal performance. I don't think he was dogging it. Maybe it's the new salad diet that screwed everything up. Doggone it !!!!

04 Nov 2012 1:04 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

A brutal two days for Baffert, but he'll bounce back and he has some good 3yo, and could the third try in the BC Classic be the charm for Game On Dude next year? Baffert's BC- Juv Sprint- 5-2 ML Super Ninety Nine scratched. 6-1 ML Jaycito was 11th in the Marathon. Juvenile Fillies was sort of a bright spot with the favorite coming in 2nd. Fed Biz in the dirt mile, 6-1 ML was next to last. The two juvies at 6-1 ML and 5-2 ML were next to last and fifth. Three horses in the dirt sprint were 6th, 7th and 12th. Game On Dude, the big favorite "can't lose" horse in some "expert's" opinions was 7th. The BC is never easy but that was rough after high expectations.

04 Nov 2012 1:24 AM
Pedigree Ann

Glad the horses agreed with me and proved my point about The Hill (I had the tri; Renee's work, in which she floated over the turf and passed horses in couple strides convinced me to use her in my bet). One thing I forgot to mention is that the horse needs a jock that knows how to ride the Hill; newbies tend to misjudge. Keep this in mind for next year, when the BC returns to SA.

Something many of you may not have seen: HGTV has an Aidan-ophile announcer and she got that scoop that they were going to send the Aussie Starspangledbanner. He had been more of a speed horse in the days before he went to stud, but since he came back to racing, they had been holding him up for a late run. So, with the downhill as a help and the rail (high numbers are inside on the Hill, remember), they decided to use his speed from the start. In upper stretch, I thought they had it and my bet was down the drain. Whew!

Only big bets were the Marathon and Turf sprint, where I had strong opinions. Frittered away some money on flyers, none of which came in. A lesson for me?

04 Nov 2012 9:38 AM
Pete Denk

Nice job by KEYMASTER, Lazmanick, and maybe Rusty picking Fort Larned.

I thought Flat Out and Ron the Greek ran ok considering the track conditions. Ron the Greek looked like he wasn't handling it all early, and Lezcano was getting into him. It was good to see him at least try to put in a run.

Hope you guys made some money and enjoyed the Cup.

04 Nov 2012 9:49 AM
Rusty Weisner

Pete Denk,

Thanks, but no.  Included Fort Larned & Mucho Macho Man after your helpful call about the track conditions, but didn't get a single all day.  George Vancouver's win gave me confidence enough to stick with Shareta and Excelebration in the late Pick 4's.  I'm glad next year will be at Santa Anita.

Bad day, bad year.  

Congratulations, winners (JayJay, Keelerman, Ranagulzion?).

Talk to you all again in the runup to the Derby.

04 Nov 2012 5:40 PM
predict

I think I'm suffering from PBCD today after the Breeder's Cup. I get all worked up trying to solve all the races, and when it's over I feel Post Breeder's Cup Depression. Anyway it was great fun while it lasted, I seemed to pick horses that ran second all day. That wasn't really all that bad, can't wait till next year for some more fun. Thanks to Pete and all the bloggers here, you make it that much more enjoyable.

04 Nov 2012 6:30 PM
tcc

Kellerman,Footlick;

A little part of an article in DRF about some 2 year olds in the Breeder's Cup.

Trainer John Sadler said both Capo Bastone and Monument, third and last, respectively, in Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, bled. Trainer Mark Casse said that Spring in the Air, who finished fifth in Friday’s Juvenile Fillies, also bled.

05 Nov 2012 2:08 PM
Footlick

tcc- do you have any stats on how many other 2 yr olds bled and how many did not?  In championships like this, you will always have horses who bleed because it is stress-induced.  But, if most of the horses did not bleed significantly, it will tell you how overused the drug actually is.  

05 Nov 2012 4:47 PM
tcc

Foorlick;

Here is some more parts of the article.

Casse said that Dynamic Sky, who ran sixth in the Juvenile, did not bleed.

Todd Pletcher, who won the Juvenile with Shanghai Bobby, had all of his horses scoped and said none of his 2-year-olds bled.

“It doesn’t change my position on being pro-Lasix,” Pletcher said.

Bob Baffert said none of the 2-year-olds he ran in the Breeders’ Cup bled, but he remains against a ban of the medication. He believes by banning Lasix in all Breeders’ Cup races next year, “you’ll see field sizes shrink.” There are a lot of owners that are going to get out of the business,” Baffert said. “I have some clients that think it’s inhumane to allow a horse to bleed.”

Fortify, who ran fourth in the Juvenile, did not bleed, according to trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. Fortify was the only horse in the Juvenile field to have never raced on Lasix.

05 Nov 2012 5:19 PM
Footlick

tcc-thanks.  I read the article after you mentioned it.  I can only say that no raceday medication works everywhere else in the world.  I also feel if a horse cannot perform on raceday without medication, it should not be allowed to go to the breeding shed, male or female.  I know that is severe, but the horses who overcome are the ones we want in the shed.  That being said, didn't John Nerud blame Northern Dancer for passing on the bleeding trait?  And he didn't run on meds.  He overcame, and seemingly passed it on still.  I'm not sure if racing in this country can survive without Lasix anymore, but it is used way too much, imo.

05 Nov 2012 6:17 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Despite popular opinion,  the Plod Boys at Racing Flow did not register a Speed Bias of any consequence at Santa Anita on Saturday. We'll rate Shanghai Bobby's performance as the best of the day on the dirt considering his fast and pressured 6f and his determination and stamina to win despite a Flow that was very favorable to Closers. While we were aboard Capo Bastone and Fortify going in, neither interests us coming out until proven otherwise - blled or no bleed.

The Friday card was modestly favorable to Speed, but not enough to recommend blindly playing back all failed or successful closers,  with the exception of those types in the Juv Sprint (Hightail and SSM).

The Turf Mile played out moderately favorable to Speed, thus bringing Wise Dan's performance a bit back to earth in our opinion. We were impressed enough by Animal Kingdom's lone turf race last February to make him the selection on Saturday. The performance, considering the unfavorably Flow for closers and the tight quarters he was in through much of the stretch, has done nothing to change that view.

Finally,  our best bet over the two days at SA was Gabriel Charles based purely on his PPs and Racing Flow figures. Is anyone aware of the information that was out, beside ours, that inspired such heavy action?

05 Nov 2012 7:38 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Plod Boy Phil

   I was going to bet Gabriel Charles myself but forgot to. He had Talamo who has been excellent down the hill, a good turf pedigree, a good prime power number, Mullins 21% first on grass, and he had an excellent A minus workout report on the turf, which I think swayed some bettors. He's a lightly raced 160k horse too, and I think they wanted a winning spot. He wasn't facing any monsters. Obviously it was a good spot, he took to the turf, and he was peaked for a top performance. I suspect the owners and their friends bet also.

Jayjay

   Game On Dude wasn't going to beat the top two Saturday anyway even with the lead. Game On has won from off the pace before anyway. The Big Cap 2011 is a good example where he and Chantal pin ball wizarded themselves to the lead from off the pace.

05 Nov 2012 8:29 PM
-Keelerman

Tcc;

I find that very interesting . . . watching the Juvenile, I was struck by the fact that Capo Bastone fizzled in the homestretch after making what appeared to be a winning move on the final turn. Perhaps this is the explanation. Thanks!

Footlick;

It's interesting that you should mention Northern Dancer. As odd as this may seem, he did race on Lasix -- the famous veterinarian Alex Harthill used it on the colt for the Kentucky Derby, back before the medication was recognized or legal.

-Keelerman

05 Nov 2012 9:34 PM
-Keelerman

Thanks for the congratulations, Rusty. I'll be looking forward to your thoughts on the Triple Crown!

05 Nov 2012 9:44 PM
Footlick

-Keelerman, I never knew that.  That is extremely interesting.

05 Nov 2012 10:33 PM
JayJay

Dr D :  I don't know if GoD would've won but my point was more of how he ran.  He never had a chance, he doesn't know how to run behind horses, he's never had to.  I thought it would've been a loss that's easier to take if he was allowed to run his race.  It also affected the outcome in my opinion, if he went to the lead, Fort Larned would've been toasted at the top of the stretch and MMM probably would've won IMHO.

I'm still following Know More for the Triple Crown, I'm guessing his connections thought he did well on synthetic and tried to transfer that form to turf.  I still think that he would've done better in the Juvenile.  As I do every year, I'm going to wait and see who of the 2 year olds get to keep their form when they turn 3.  Hopefully Palace Malice comes back soon, not that many juvies were impressive this year so let's see what happens next year.

tcc : Agreed with the others, would be nice to see the stats of the percentage of horses who bled vs. who didn't.  Thanks for posting the info.

06 Nov 2012 2:35 AM
JayJay

Pete : Any chance you can do a blog on how 2 yr olds carry their form to 3 ?  What's your take on the topic ?  We've seen many that never transformed their 2 yr old form to 3, and ones that picks up where they left off and then there are the late bloomers.

06 Nov 2012 2:56 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

Jayjay

  No chance of Fort Larned being toast or folding on that day. He would have dueled for another 200 yards at least and still won. If Game On did get the lead Fort Larned would have sat behind him and toasted Game On in the stretch. I think that maybe Game On missed Chantal but in any case Fort Larned was a monster on Sat. and would have been tough to beat in any scenario. He's Had Enough is number one at the moment on my Derby list.

06 Nov 2012 7:36 PM
JayJay

Dr D : Maybe but I just don't think Fort Larned is that good.  It's one of those debates that will never be resolved unfortunately.  I'm not mad that Fort Larned won, I'm mad cause I didn't have him lol.  Before Friday, I already tossed him out as the "rabbit" of the field that would go head to head with GoD but forgot about him on Saturday when the track ended up playing speed.   I just had GoD and MMM.

HHE surprised me, I bet him in his previous race and didn't see anything special but maybe he likes SA but he ran very very well and I actually thought he was going to get up.

I'm with Predict, I'm kind of going through some kind of Post BC withdrawal... it's like nothing more to look forward to until the first big TC prep race... and that's too far away.

06 Nov 2012 8:12 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Jayjay

  Just get Derby fever and you'll be just fine. Uncaptured is number two but could be number one, and Shanghai Bobby is number three. I wanted to wait longer this year but it's just too much fun. Derby Fever already. At least I waited longer than last year. Last year in Sep I had a top ten. Today I just have a top three. Progress but it's all over now, I'm feverish, and drinking plenty of fluids.

06 Nov 2012 9:48 PM
Pedigree Ann

Dr. D - as in many years, we may not even have heard of most the horses who will be the major Derby contenders. Last year was not typical of the recent trend. Colts who are working on their maiden wins and first condition at SA & Aqu & CD, or are running in minor stakes races at  Philly & CRC at the moment will blossom during the winter and surprise us all.

11 Nov 2012 9:01 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

Pedigree Ann

  That's for sure, and it can be quite detrimental to latch onto or fall in love with horses early. I try to keep an open mind and try to be flexible but I just found that I really enjoy looking at the pedigrees, and following them and tinkering with the Derby Dozen. Last year I got lucky and had I'll Have Another number two on my September list but that was pure luck. I just happened to like his pedigree. The futures bet is pretty much a scam. I only played it once and lost. I'll save my money for the preps and Triple Crown races. I love the preps starting in January.

11 Nov 2012 3:08 PM
JayJay

Hit the exacta in the first race at HP, going to use that for the P6.  I had the 1,7 with 1,7,3 with 1,7,3 trifecta and the 4 just killed it !!  I'm happy with the exacta though.  Good luck to all playing the P6 today, should be a nice pool.

11 Nov 2012 3:37 PM
Pete Denk

I am looking forward to seeing Scarlet Strike run today in the Sharp Cat. She is a promising filly I have blogged about a couple times.

Back next week with a new blog. Been busy at the NOV sale plus the Herd Whisperer is in town.

Maybe we can talk about promising two-year-olds next week. Will see what the stakes schedule has...

11 Nov 2012 3:38 PM
JayJay

I'll go ahead and start it off, maybe it'll get me off this funk lol.  I'm still waiting to hear about Palace Malice, hopefully he'll be back next year.  Haven't given up on Know More, pretty sure they went with the turf because of how he performed on synthetic at DelMar but I hope that they put him back on dirt and give him a chance to get used to it.  I'll be watching him closely next year.

I wasn't a fan of Shanghai Bobby as I thought he's an 8F horse at best.  I was pretty impressed with his run winning the BC juvenile though, having run with  first time off lasix and hanging on to win, on the other hand, he barely beat a horse that hasn't really done much this year.  HHE might be just getting better and learning how to run so I'll keep an eye on him too.  I remember a horse that didn't do too much as a 2 yr. old last year that's owned by the same connections as HHE but won 4 races this year.

I'm sure there'll be loads of new players starting next year, looking forward to seeing who starts making noise early but finding those that stays under the radar is the fun part.

13 Nov 2012 12:12 AM
Rusty Weisner

PlodBoyPhil,

Boy, that struck me, too.  He was 20-1 ML and won at 6-1, I think.

13 Nov 2012 2:10 PM
Ranagulzion

jay jay,

The radar isn't picking up much this year that'll help to forcast next season's classics and the newly introduced points system to qualify for a place in the Kentucky Derby is going to throw a lot of handicappers off. Somehow I think that next season is likely to deliver some major upsets in the Triple Crown races especially the Preakness and Belmont Stakes.

13 Nov 2012 2:35 PM
Karen in Texas

Of course this has nothing to do with the current promising 2y/o's, but I see that one colt several of us were watching last spring, Spring Hill Farm, is back on the work schedule at Palm Meadows. I did not know if he was going to be brought back after his injury.

13 Nov 2012 6:48 PM
JayJay

Ranagulzion : Excellent point!  I totally forgot about the new points system.  I think it'll work itself out though, it's still a work in progress in my opinion.  I remember checking the field that actually ran in the Derby this year against the horses that would have qualified based on the new points system and it didn't really changed much.  Hopefully things will work itself out and that the best horses do make it and we'll end up with a legitimate derby field next year.

KiT : I remember him well because I lost a lot of money on him on his biggest prep race where I believe he injured himself.  Thanks for the update!

13 Nov 2012 10:42 PM

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