Post-Thanksgiving handicapping

Greetings from St. Petersburg, Florida, where after one huge meal and two entertaining NFL games, I am ready to tackle the weekend cards.

Aqueduct Race 7, Friday

Maiden 2yo fillies    5.5f    dirt

My eyes will be on first-time starter 1 Lady Banks. This Successfil Appeal filly made a positive impression as a yearling, when I saw her at the 2011 Fasig-Tipton July selected yearling sale. She showed some class and presence, and despite her speedy pedigree, will probably want more ground than this.

Churchill Downs Race 1, Saturday

Allowance NW1X   2yo fillies    6f    dirt

1 Don't Tell Veda looked very good when trying dirt in her second career start. She stalked the lead pack, angled inside in the stretch, then back outside a rival and drew off by almost 5 lengths. She made that move look easy, showing signs of a strong dynamic. She should move forward off that run, and I would expect her to to at least hit the board here vs. winners.

Churchill Downs Race 2, Saturday

Allowance NW1X    2 yo fillies    1 mile   dirt

1 Dancinginthecircle is a legitimate favorite here after being under restraint in traffic in a NW1 here on October 28, then rallying for second, beaten just a neck. Jock switch from Julien Leparoux to TJ Thompson and I wouldn't be surprised to see this filly break running from the rail, as there isn't a ton of speed in here. I'll be interested to see how 2 Lady Luck (15-1 ML?) runs. She is by Curlin, and may appreciate getting back on dirt after making a wide move and hanging in a NW1 on the Keeneland polytrack. I liked her debut on the dirt at Ellis. 4 Assets of War was on my short list at the 2011 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky July yearling sale for both her physical and mental makeup. She came out running and scored at 11-1 in her career debut. I think she'll like the added distance here and could move forward. The filly she ran down (Irish Lute) returned to win at the MSW level at Churchill.

 

Aqueduct Race 8, Saturday

Cigar Mile (G1)    One Mile    Dirt

The filly Groupie Doll has been tabbed at the 8-to-5 morning line favorite, and she looks like the horse to beat despite taking on males. She is the most consistent horse in the race, and if she can run back to her Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint or the Humana Distaff Handicap (G1), she should win this race. I am a huge fan of Groupie Doll, but post-Breeders' Cup bounces are common, and Groupie Doll delivered a huge effort against an inside speed bias. She could be vulnerable here.

Speaking of bias, Stay Thirsty ran the race of his life when losing the Jockey Club Gold Cup to Flat Out by a head last time, but he had the bias in his favor. I wouldn't expect him to run back to that race.

Hymn Book, who finished second in this race last year, skipped the Breeders' Cup and has worked three times since a sharp stakes score at Belmont on October 19. I could play him at his 6-1 morning line. Have a feeling I'm either betting him or I am just watching and rooting for Groupie Doll.

107 Comments

Leave a Comment:

Kevin

Agree with Hymn Book in the Cigar.

Going with Lunar Victory in the Clark.  

23 Nov 2012 7:44 AM
Coldfacts

Groupie Doll currently has an impressive sequence of victories.  In the Cigar Mile she will be stepping out of her comfort zone and this will bring to an end the aforementioned sequence. There are a number of negatives working against the talented and speedy mare.

She will now be facing four G1 winners and it is unlikely that she has ever faced a field that included so many talented winners at this level. She will be racing in NY for the first time and on a surface that has been unkind to new comers. A new surface against arguably the toughest field she has faced to date is not a formula for success at the Big A.

The entrant I like is Coil.  This 4YO has contested races ranging from 6F to 10F. Interestingly, there have been no 8F races within the aforementioned range. He had no chance in the Breeder Cup Sprint as it is unlikely that a son of Point Given could have completed 6F in 1:07 on a speed bias track. Although he has been successful at distances of 6F, 7F, 8 1/2F and 9F, his best distance might just be a mile. Assuming his performance is not impacted by the new surface, the race will setup ideally for him. He has enough tactical speed to be within range of expected leaders Buffum and Stay Thirsty and if he can uncoil the closing kick he displayed in both the Haskell and Goodwood Stakes he must have an outstanding chance.

Groupie Doll is an excellent mare and the excellent ones normally find ways to win in spite of adversities. However, I cannot see her out running all her male counterparts to the line.

23 Nov 2012 7:48 AM
predict

Groupie Doll may have a chance at HOY if she wins the Cigar Mile, now thats a real "rags to riches" story. Who would have thought? I love the connections for giving her this shot. By all accounts they feel she has maintained her fitness level, saying that she wasn't blowing at all after her last work. I don't think she is a bet against in this race. She is successful in the past at Churchill, Belmont, and Santa Anita, there is no reason to believe a new track will change her winning ways since they put the blinkers on her. She will be getting a weight break, which will give her all she needs to beat this group. Looking back at her race in May at Churchill, her time that day was about 3/4's of a second faster than Amazombie and Shackleford posted that day. She will destroy the Cigar field in my IMHO! Good luck if you bet against her. Racing doesn't get much better than this, I CAN'T WAIT.

23 Nov 2012 12:04 PM
THE KEYMASTER

Lady Banks certainly has a favorable work tab and sold well as a 2 year old in training. She could certainly be a filly to watch down the road and it is unfortunate that she drew the rail today, as that is typically too hard for a first timer to overcome.

I will settle on Dear to All to run them down from just off the pace.

23 Nov 2012 2:51 PM
Pete Denk

Lady Banks just ran a strong second at 8-1 in AQU Race 7.

23 Nov 2012 2:54 PM
THE KEYMASTER

Pete- Excellent tab on Lady Banks!  She ran huge, and only got beat by the rail draw, which is expected for a first timer sprinting.

I had the right idea but wrong horse, as Dear to All ran a even third, but Live Lively swept by them all.

However, with a better trip, Lady Banks would have been the winner.  Good call Pete!

23 Nov 2012 2:59 PM
Pete Denk

Thanks Keymaster, I thought Lady Banks did a lot of good things there. Kinda missed the break, split horses, and was rallying inside the winner.

They should stretch her out next time.

23 Nov 2012 3:23 PM
Pete Denk

Anyone playing the Clark?

Cease is my top pick but I want to see the odds. A couple of the 3yos listed at 15-1 on the ML would be playable in some fashion (Bourbon Courage, Fast Falcon), but I think the line is probably off.

23 Nov 2012 3:34 PM
THE KEYMASTER

I like #4 Banded in the 5th at Hawthorne.

23 Nov 2012 4:55 PM
THE KEYMASTER

The uncoupled Block entry runs 1-2 in the 5th at Hawthorne.  21-1 Banded finishes midpack with no excuse.

23 Nov 2012 5:01 PM
Secreteriat

Mission Impazzable Cease Take Charge Indy Shackleford

23 Nov 2012 5:17 PM
THE KEYMASTER

3yo Take Charge Indy is the early favorite to take the Clark. Working well and not much speed other than Shackleford.

I like 3yo Fast Falcon to win.

23 Nov 2012 5:19 PM
KY VET

shackleford is 7/2? who ARE you people?  400w 300p

23 Nov 2012 5:28 PM
THE KEYMASTER

Congratulations to Shakleford!!!  I couldn't bet him at that price, but he proved again that he is a heck of a racehorse.

23 Nov 2012 5:40 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Very pleased to see Shackleford win his final race.  A truly remarkable race horse.

23 Nov 2012 5:43 PM
Karen in Texas

So happy for Shackleford and all his connections!

23 Nov 2012 6:07 PM
Thoroughbreds are the best

What a Thanksgiving weekend for Oatsee!

23 Nov 2012 7:46 PM
KY VET

yep.....i knocked his odds down......300w200p hol 10th race YA WANNA HUG.....2 to 1 on horse should be 3/5

23 Nov 2012 8:05 PM
Coldfacts

Predict,

You have raised some valid points in support of Groupie Doll. However, they are some further negatives that were not highlighted in my post. Subject to correction she was beaten in her only race against males. The group she will be facing in Cigar Mile is much more talented than Boy At Tosconova whose only G1 victory came as a 2YO in the Hopeful Stakes. Her record reflects she has never race in cold weather. She has contested 8 races in 2012 and despite her easy victories she runs very hard each time. The schedules of some her opponents has been less demanding. There is a world of difference competing against overmatched females as opposed to talented male. The talented Zenyatta beat all but one in her final race. There is a sufficient mix of speedsters and late closers that will put her under immense pressure. She might be able to blow by the speedsters but she will then have to contend with the ferocious closing kicks of accomplished males.

The usefulness of blinkers like any other piece of equipment has its limitation. It does not serve to transform the talented into the super talented.

Can she defeat this collection of males? Yes! It’s a horse race and anything is possible. However, to suggest a destruction of the opposition is a bit over the top.

24 Nov 2012 10:44 AM
Coldfacts

Pete,

I would appreciate if my last post is not displayed as it contains some grammatical errors that have been corrected in a replacement post.

Thanks

24 Nov 2012 10:50 AM
Coldfacts

Predict,

You have raised some valid points in support of Groupie Doll. However, there are some further negatives that were not highlighted in my post. Subject to correction she was beaten in her only race against males. The group she will be facing in Cigar Mile is much more talented than Boy At Tosconova whose only G1 victory came as a 2YO in the Hopeful Stakes. Her record reflects she has never race in cold weather. She has contested 8 races in 2012 and despite her easy victories she runs very hard each time. The schedules of some her opponents have been less demanding. There is a world of difference between competing against overmatched females as opposed to talented male. The talented Zenyatta beat all but one in her final race. There is a sufficient mix of speedsters and late closers that will put her under immense pressure. She might be able to blow by the speedsters but she will then have to contend with the ferocious closing kicks of accomplished males.

The usefulness of blinkers like any other piece of equipment has its limitations. They do not serve to transform the talented into the super talented.

Can she defeat this collection of males? Yes! It’s a horse race and anything is possible. However, to suggest a destruction of the opposition is a bit over the top.

24 Nov 2012 10:52 AM
Coldfacts

Predict,

You have raised some valid points in support of Groupie Doll. However, they are some further negatives that were not highlighted in my post. Subject to correction she was beaten in her only race against males. The group she will be facing in Cigar Mile is much more talented than Boy At Tosconova whose only G1 victory came as a 2YO in the Hopeful Stakes. Her record reflects she has never race in cold weather. She has contested 8 races in 2012 and despite her easy victories she runs very hard each time. The schedules of some her opponents has been less demanding. There is a world of difference competing against overmatched females as opposed to talented male. The talented Zenyatta beat all but one in her final race. There is a sufficient mix of speedsters and late closers that will put her under immense pressure. She might be able to blow by the speedsters but she will then have to contend with the ferocious closing kicks of accomplished males.

The usefulness of blinkers like any other piece of equipment has its limitation. It does not serve to transform the talented into the super talented.

Can she defeat this collection of males? Yes! It’s a horse race and anything is possible. However, to suggest a destruction of the opposition is a bit over the top.

24 Nov 2012 10:54 AM
Criminal Type

I like both Dixie Union colts in the Remsen. Delhomme over  Overanalyze & Micromanage. An all Pletcher trifacta.

24 Nov 2012 11:36 AM
THE KEYMASTER

Going with Assets of War in the 2nd at CD.  Love those Lord At War mares.  Glad to hear that Pete liked her mental and physical makeup as a yearling. $160K is a good price for a Lawyer Ron. Also, she showed ability in winning debut.

24 Nov 2012 1:05 PM
THE KEYMASTER

Wow!  Pure Fun just romped at 14-1.  First time routing on dirt and going back to dirt suited this daughter of Pure Prize very well.  $22K yearling owned and trained by McPeek.

24 Nov 2012 1:14 PM
KY VET

hymn book! 300w200p....

24 Nov 2012 3:16 PM
KY VET

GAZELLE - BOOK REVIEW 300w200p

24 Nov 2012 3:46 PM
KY VET

bel 10th LONGFORTHECITY 300w200p

24 Nov 2012 4:19 PM
KY VET

hol 3rd 300w200p miss becca

24 Nov 2012 4:29 PM
KY VET

+1000 yesterday.......-300 today....

24 Nov 2012 4:41 PM
KY VET

hol race 4....watch re run of FIT TO RULE.......300w200p

24 Nov 2012 4:50 PM
KY VET

wow...almost 6 to 1 on a horse that didnt even get to run last time......+1,690 today.....

24 Nov 2012 5:10 PM
KY VET

generous stks.....tough wide open....why not bet 2 longshots? 100w 6 and 8...tree of life/christopher street

24 Nov 2012 5:36 PM
Cathy in Washington

Liberated is the first US graded Stakes Placed offpring for Freshman Sire Curlin. She had a poor trip being pinched back at the start and then having to go wide, to finish 3rd in the Gr 2 Golden Rod Stakes.

24 Nov 2012 5:53 PM
KY VET

hol race 6....big fav looks tough...2 should fly late at 8 to 1...but im going with #1 GREEN TEAM...200w100p  +1,490

24 Nov 2012 6:06 PM
KY VET

hol race 7 not much speed.....200w100p#12 emmys hall+1190

24 Nov 2012 6:39 PM
KY VET

dh 9 and 12.....+1480

24 Nov 2012 6:55 PM
KY VET

hol race 8....dont like chalk...but this baffert horse looks special...200w#1 tiz the tide

24 Nov 2012 7:14 PM
KY VET

meisque stks- flashy ways 7/2? 300w200p

24 Nov 2012 7:24 PM
predict

Groupie Doll didn't win ,but she showed she is a hard knocking filly and one tough competitor, nice try.

Sunday at Hollywood, the 10f Hollywoood Derby looks like a good betting race with 14 entered and no big favorite entered. I have liked Summer Front for some time, but I can only support him with some reservations here. I'm not sure he likes 10f and I'm somewhat suprised Clement ships him for this race. The horse I think will win this is Speaking of Which. I think he moved too early in his last race, which allowed Grandeur to catch him in a race that was run with rather above par splits. I expect him to do better in his second start here and has shown he can run 10f in the past. I will take a stab at a couple of long shots here, Big Bane Theory will be tested today for class and though I'm not a big Talamo fan I think this horse is a possible for the top 4 spots, along with General Logan another I expect to see running late and might just be this good.

25 Nov 2012 2:35 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Wow your funny KY Vet keep up the laughter.

25 Nov 2012 9:06 AM
Mary Zinke

It's easier for me to find the nerve to post some picks here after reading KY Vet's bold wagers :)  No one has been mentioning Lucky Chappy, the 10, in the Hollywood Derby, and I would include him. Hopefully, the time off was what he needed.  I'm using 4,11,and 13 as my top picks, and agreeing with predict, Summer Front is one I have liked for most of his career. Sorry to have missed the BC contest; I think that's where my luck went, since not much in these weeks afterwards.

Royal Delta's brother Empire Way(the 8) runs in the race before the Hollywood Derby, the eighth. Bad luck at Del Mar when clipping heels, in way over his head at Santa Anita. Maybe something will click for him. I think he's capable of beating Northern Iowa, the 9, at least.

25 Nov 2012 1:46 PM
JayJay

KY VET : Maybe you'll make some profit today.  Looks like you were down to 780.00 from your last count, what do you start your day with ?  $4,000?  that's at least 10 bets the way you bet.  I hope you make some of that back.

Predict : Thanks for the tip on "Speaking of Which", I'll have a close look at him.

Now to the real bettors, good luck at the races today !  

25 Nov 2012 2:08 PM
KY VET

FRI +1000 SAT +280.........AQU race 6 200w100p #5 LADY YELLOW TAIL

25 Nov 2012 2:40 PM
KY VET

aqu race 7 longshot time....#8 200w100p la bella valeria

25 Nov 2012 3:13 PM
KY VET

Wow! completely left at gate.....and got up! much the best at 7 to 1! CHA CHING!+1,480

25 Nov 2012 3:25 PM
KY VET

aqu race 8 read the byline 200w100p

25 Nov 2012 3:40 PM
KY VET

+1180...hol race 2 200w100p #4 warrens morgan

25 Nov 2012 3:55 PM
KY VET

+880 9th aqu #12 200w100p

25 Nov 2012 4:12 PM
KY VET

+580 200w #1 AND #2 both 8 to 1

25 Nov 2012 4:28 PM
KY VET

+180

25 Nov 2012 4:43 PM
KY VET

hol race 4 200w100p#1 floating feather

25 Nov 2012 5:01 PM
KY VET

haw race 4 #4 200w100p

25 Nov 2012 5:09 PM
KY VET

haw race 5 nice winner!+1,370

25 Nov 2012 5:18 PM
KY VET

hol race 5 matriarch.....#8 future generation 200w100p

25 Nov 2012 5:24 PM
KY VET

+1070 gg race 5 200w100p #2 all six sisters

25 Nov 2012 5:46 PM
KY VET

hol race 6 200w100p #MANANDO

25 Nov 2012 5:48 PM
KY VET

after gg race 5 with a correction +740 not +770

25 Nov 2012 5:55 PM
KY VET

+440 race 6 surfer dave 200w100p

25 Nov 2012 6:22 PM
KY VET

+140...hol best bet of day 300w200p Buckleberry grey

25 Nov 2012 6:28 PM
KY VET

-360.....mountaineer best bets...race 8 300w200p #3 saint arbor.......race 9 300w200p #9 fireinyourshoes

25 Nov 2012 9:11 PM
JayJay

Welcome to KY VET's betting blog!  One quick question, you posted your pick for hawthorne race 4 then 9 minutes later you posted you hit the winner of hawthorne race 5... doesn't make sense since you posted your race 4 bet before the 4th race ran, how did you get the winner of race 5 9 minutes later ??  I'm pretty sure it takes at least half an hour between races.  Now be honest, are you actually betting these or are they all virtual bets ?  and maybe virtual races... are you playing horseracing on xbox or something ??

26 Nov 2012 2:36 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

The Ballad of KY VET

    Ky VET is a pro, and that is one thing we all know, but we know not how he does it for the bets he posts he loses all his dough.

26 Nov 2012 9:00 PM
Pedigree Ann

I would like to point out that Groupie Doll and Stay Thirsty both carried 118 lbs, which means she was giving him weight on the scale. The scale of weights calls for a female to get 3 lbs from a male at wfa in November, so the handicapper rated her at 121 before her sex allowance was taken out. She was best in the race at the weights.

Some modern race fans seem to have forgotten that weights are assigned in handicaps and in allowance stakes (in which horses get weight off for not having won races of a particular sort) to try to level the playing field and give the owners and bettors reasons to enter or back lesser horses. When Royal Delta loses while giving 10 lbs to the winner, then trashes the same horse at level weights they seem confused. Read up on this stuff, folks.

27 Nov 2012 8:39 AM
Coldfacts

Pedigree Ann,

All your points are valid and are well received.

The issue of weight was not a significant factor in the evaluation of Groupie Doll's chances of winning the Cigar Mile. Her connections were OK with her allotment. She was clearly rated higher than most in the field and while she might have been best at the weights, history does not place importance on these types of cold facts. Stay Thirsty was not the only male benefiting from the negative impact of her sex allowance. However he was the only one that finished ahead of her.

She was gallant in defeat and it is unlikely that the technical weight allowance to Stay Thirsty was not the reason he defeated her.

With regards to handicap races, it is common practice for connections to bypass those in which their charges are perceived to be at unfavorable weight disadvantages.

27 Nov 2012 10:54 AM
Rusty Weisner

I hadn't realized it was Shackleford's last race.  As with any horse who has won me some money, but particularly a fierce competitor, I'll remember him fondly.  I just wish he had showed something three weeks earlier.  Dale Romans had a year I won't forget:  Both Little Mike and Silver Max really punished me.

Enjoy the holidays everyone.  I'll hope to check in in February at the start of the Triple Crown trail.

27 Nov 2012 11:54 AM
Mary Zinke

Royal Delta lost the Personal Ensign due to Mike Smith's ride, admitted by Mike Smith.  

27 Nov 2012 1:55 PM
KY VET

tues turf paradise race 4 200w100p #5 GO EMMITT GO

27 Nov 2012 3:58 PM
KY VET

-300 turf paradise best bets race 7 and 8 300w200p 7th TWO TURNS 8th Stoneridge gold

27 Nov 2012 4:08 PM
JayJay

Tuesday Turf Paradise

Race 7 :  

$200 exacta box 4-6-9

$500 WPS on the 9

Race 8 :

$200 exacta box 6-9-1

$500 WPS on the 6

That's all my rent money, I better hit at least one bet or I'm sleeping in a cardboard box tonight lol

27 Nov 2012 5:11 PM
KY VET

-360 2nd at 7/2....in 7th

27 Nov 2012 5:40 PM
KY VET

2nd again....great picks....sometimes you just get beat.....-20 total -380

27 Nov 2012 6:00 PM
JayJay

Woohooo  + $ALOTTACASH !!  Now that's how you beat the chalk ;)  I had $500 WPS on the 6 in the 7th - just typed the wrong number when I posted it, 6 was my 2nd choice ;)    Nailed both races!

27 Nov 2012 6:05 PM
KY VET

mountaineer race 1 200w100p#10 frisco ex. race 4 200w100p          #8 niccet

27 Nov 2012 6:11 PM
KY VET

mountainerr race 1 scratch #10 so use #2 instead right angle

27 Nov 2012 6:57 PM
KY VET

mnr 1st....2nd again! paid 5 dollars -50......total -430......then winner in 4th mnr +510.............total +80 dollars.....picking good though

27 Nov 2012 8:52 PM
KY VET

last race of the night....9th mnr....200wp #2

27 Nov 2012 10:10 PM
Footlick

I remember when Bayakoa gave Quiet American 7 lbs actual weight, 10 lbs on scale, in the San Diego.  She lost by 1 1/4 lengths I believe in 1:41 and change for 8.5 furlongs.  

28 Nov 2012 9:29 AM
KY VET

yesterday-320 today aqu race 4 200w100p #8 quit smoking

28 Nov 2012 1:46 PM
KY VET

-300 race 5 aqu 200w100p smarty bull

28 Nov 2012 2:12 PM
KY VET

aqu 6 400w #9 bird fu

aqu 7 200w100p coalition

aqu 8 200w100p mineswept

aqu 9 200w100p hackleton

28 Nov 2012 2:32 PM
Mary Zinke

Anyone else following the roller coaster? I only count the picks posted pre-race by anyone,though. Best of luck. I will say that I learn more from the comments such as the one about Questing's drifting possibly being due to her being sore, and now she is injured, but the wager-wars are entertaining, too. From those I've learned that I would need a much bigger bankroll and much bigger other items, lol.

28 Nov 2012 2:46 PM
JayJay

Mary Zinke : I don't make that kind of bets, I find his post entertaining but not much more.  I thought it was funny that I made a joke post about betting and actually got the bigger odds lol.  I doubt very much he actually makes those bets, it's fun to watch him posts EVERY bet though as long as Pete don't mind.  I don't envy Pete having to validate each and every post he's making about his bets though lol.  Stick with your bankroll, I think you do well.

I'm not sure what you learned from his comments about Questing drifting and now she's injured.   I don't know what caused Questing's injury, do you ?  I'm actually interested in what caused it.   If she was drifting due to soreness, I would think that her connections would've been much more careful with her and would be checking up on her every day and most likely have found something way earlier.

28 Nov 2012 8:53 PM
Pedigree Ann

JayJay - Questing came back from the race with her left eye nearly swollen shut. Whether it came from contact with the gate, or an errant rein-end or crop of another jock, or a clod of dirt, she had an injured eye early in the race. If you have ever hurt a eye, you know that the pain can drive the thoughts of all other activities from your mind. If it had happened in the stretch, when her adrenalin was in high gear, maybe it wouldn't have affected her as much. But there you go.

29 Nov 2012 9:24 AM
Mary Zinke

I was not referring to Questing's swollen eye.  I was referring to her surgery for the ankle chip which was reported on November 21st. Her trainer said that he did not think that chip had affected her BCLC performance, but I do remember KY Vet having said that horses run while sore(paraphrased). At that time Questing's drifting in the stretch of the CCAO and Alabama had been discussed, and what I learned is to take everything into account.

29 Nov 2012 12:00 PM
Pete Denk

Hope you all had a great Thanksgiving. I'll get a blog up later for this weekend's races.

I see even KY VET had some winners.

29 Nov 2012 12:43 PM
KY VET

yes...questing told us she was hurting....drifting that much is bad news....trainers dont always know....ya know? alot of people think they do......heres another hurting horse..misscomunication...1 min to post even money....race 5 hol....ill bet 200wp #6 warren mo money

29 Nov 2012 5:34 PM
KY VET

renees got zip if sound, wouldve been a freak.....she isnt sound....runs sat...

29 Nov 2012 5:37 PM
KY VET

well...was right about even money horse.....but still lost. 10to 1 1st 38 to 1 2nd.....you can be right, and still lose.....

29 Nov 2012 5:41 PM
KY VET

the sesamoid bone in the ankle stabilizes the ankle, so horse can go straight.......sesamoid chip? what ya think that might make a horse do? sometimes a horse can tell us by their stride, how they are doing.......

29 Nov 2012 5:46 PM
KY VET

the sesamoid bone in the ankle stabilizes the ankle, so horse can go straight.......sesamoid chip? what ya think that might make a horse do? sometimes a horse can tell us by their stride, how they are doing.......

29 Nov 2012 5:47 PM
KY VET

ok.....yes, i am a pro....i make a living at this.....i own 2 horses, both back in a couple months....no....i played some but not all of those horses this week. i cannot tell you who i am, but let me tell you, that when im at the track, even alot of the ticket sellers ask me who i like..........let me show you........

29 Nov 2012 5:56 PM
KY VET

Horses can run hurt....learn this, and this game will be easier......start with race 6 hol...8 mins to post....look at #1 THE BRAIN....baffert 2 to 1.....ran great 2nd 91 brisnet fig...he drifted in stretch! off a couple months, comes out 3/5! do you bet hurting 3/5s? bad bet! ran6th losing by 9....comes back 3 weeks later...is 3 weeks gonna do much? no! gets 8th losing by12.....NOW! off 4 months! whats that gonna do? good!!!!!! horse with problems........but now is the time!!!!! not saying he sure winner, but will run his best

29 Nov 2012 6:03 PM
KY VET

So.....the brain wins easy...ears up! To all of you "best horse" people.....there is no best....just the best that day.....now.....what does a great effort do to a horse with problems?  be wary....this horse will go off form again.....maybe 1 more decent race.................learn! pro

29 Nov 2012 6:15 PM
Mary Zinke

Right, KY.   So, I'll take in your advice, may use it, thanks. As far as the mysterious part, sorry, I don't have a speck to give to that. Used to. All out--gave at the office so to speak.

29 Nov 2012 6:25 PM
KY VET

next race...gg 6th...#2 1/9 so far.....25000 horse with long layoff....comes back at 6250 gets 4th.....then 4000 and wins........now 3200......do we know he is hurt? yep...but he ran 2 good races....what will those races do to a hurt horse?  first of all, you shouldve bet him those last 2....now the 3rd out? iffy.....risky bet i think....looks tons best on paper...swelling restricts movement...makes horses run slower....2 races and this 3rd in same month.....pass! let him win and go on.....

29 Nov 2012 6:25 PM
KY VET

race hol 7....more on the drifting thing......sister moon in march ran awesome....but drifted out....came back to lose at 1/20!  just sayin! she hasnt been seen in 6 months...now, she should fire....but other great horses in here also....mama kimbo...started out superhorse...ran 2 great races....then lost at even money....while drifting......not seen over 5 months......so....both figure to run great...along with vision of gold been off 9 months......too tough to bet this one

29 Nov 2012 6:35 PM
KY VET

gg race the huge chalk wins but runs slower....only wins by 1 length....sometimes hurt horses win! you can be right and still be wrong

29 Nov 2012 6:47 PM
KY VET

tp race 4 #1 has problems...then won , repeat wins....what will that race do? make him lose....ill go with sok sok #5

29 Nov 2012 6:58 PM
Pete Denk

Sounds like soundness diagnosis is your main angle KY VET.

29 Nov 2012 7:35 PM
JayJay

Pedigree Ann : Thanks for that info!  I find your posts much much more educational, cause it comes with substance and you can actually type a sentence which makes it easier to read.  Hope you had a nice thanksgiving weekend.

Pete : Hope you had a nice holiday as well.  Looking forward to the new blog.  Any chance you'll do a HOTY candidates blog ?  I'm interested in hearing everyone's opinions on the candidates.  I'm actually thinking Royal Delta has a very very good shot at being HOTY.  

29 Nov 2012 7:40 PM
KY VET

sok sok wins......#1 runs out......pro

29 Nov 2012 8:44 PM
KY VET

No pete...seeing a horse that has problems was the topic.....referencing that i told everyone questing had problems, and would be on sidelines soon......just showing how looking at a horse runs, can tell you things.....drifting and lugging are bad news....

29 Nov 2012 8:47 PM
KY VET

PETE....most horses have problems....this is why they only run once a month huh?

29 Nov 2012 8:50 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

That's the first thing they teach them in "Ticket Seller 101 Class"- "Ask the suckers who they like. It makes them feel good, and keeps them coming back." "You almost got that one KY, if only he hadn't ducked at the start he wouldn't have finished last."  I wonder if KY Vet is a politician, from what I can gather, if I'm properly deciphering his post codes, he states opposite opinions on the same topic in politicianese talk.

29 Nov 2012 9:49 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

The only thing I do know is that KY Vet holds the world record for consecutive posts. Sometimes I see that there is "wow",  20 or 30 new posts and I'm looking forward to a lively discussion and it's all KY Vet mumbo jumbo or crazy bets. So I'm disappointed, bored, and go watch reruns of Pawn Stars.

29 Nov 2012 9:53 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

JayJay

   Wise Dan is Horse of the Year in my opinion. It's not even a contest in my mind. I pick him without hesitation. Royal Delta was awesome too but she needed to run in the Classic to get HOY this year. I remember when I got something in my eye, tears were pouring but I kept trying to work and hit my thumb with the hammer. Drifting is a sign of a tired horse that needs a break, or of a green horse but Questing may have been injured when she couldn't see straight.

29 Nov 2012 9:58 PM

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