Stable Mail: Lady Banks to make second career start

Lady Banks, a two-year-old filly who ran an excellent second in her debut at Aqueduct on Novembr 23, is back in Friday in the 3rd race at Aqueduct.

She is listed as the 9-5 second choice on the morning line. While we won't bet getting 10-1 on her again (nor $10 to place), we also have more information now.

The debut play was based entirely on Lady Banks' emotional conformation report from when she sold as a yearling in 2011. At the sale she showed the ingredients of a high herd dynamic: a very strong presence and elite communication skills.

Lady Banks ran very good in the debut. She broke slowly from the rail, but quickly got into the race and handled a number of traffic scenarios like a pro.

Turning for home she was out wide in 5th place, stalking the eventual winner Live Lively, but Eddie Castro redirected Lady Banks inside. Momentarily blocked, Lady Banks split horses and was trying to rally inside the winner late.

If she moves forward from that experience, and I think that's quite likely, Lady Banks will be very tough to beat at the maiden level.

Lady Banks Debut Race (Rail)

Stable Mail Adds: I added four horses to my stable mail last weekend.

Flashback: 12-8-12 BHP R7 Maiden   Two-year-old Tapit colt was really impressive winning first out for Bob Baffert going seven furlongs on the cushion track. This full brother to Grade 1 winner Zazu has a big group dynamic and a nice, steady energy distribution that makes me think he can go at least 8.5f. As good as Tapit is, I can't recall ever liking any of his colts for the Derby distance, but this one looks interesting. DRF reports he got a 93 Beyer speed figure.

Flashback debut (#9, gray) 

Pure Fun: 12-8-12 BHP R9 Hollywood Starlet (G1)     Two-year-old Pure Prize filly lagged far back and then unleashed an explosive move on the turn. Her final 5/16 in :30-2 was excellent, and her final time was just 1 1/2 lengths slower than older fillies and mares ran in the Grade 2 Bayakoa Stakes earlier on the card. This was a super performance on the ship out West, and Pure Fun stamped herself as a major contender for the 2013 Kentucky Oaks.

Starlet (#1) 

Klisz: 12-8-12 BHP R8 Starter Allowance $40,000    Three-year-old Smarty Jones gelding made it 2-for-2 in his career with an eye-catching stretch move in a starter allowance race going 6f on turf. Klisz had to wait, split horses and exploded to win off by 4 lengths. With wins at maiden claiming $30,000 at Keeneland and now this $40,000 starter allowance, Klisz still could look a little cheap on paper, but there is solid talent here.

(No free replay available without a sign-in)

Mountain Eagle: 12-8-12 GP R2 Maiden    Two-year-old Birdstone gelding took a big step forward here going second time out and stretching out to a one-turn mile. His final time of 1:35.95 was two lengths faster than a NW1 later on the card, and this one is still learning. Should like two turns and more distance.

Mountain Eagle (#6)

154 Comments

Leave a Comment:

Cathy in Washington

Another one to watch Curly Top by Curlin makes his second start today. In his debut he was a good second going 1 1/16 around 2 turns.

13 Dec 2012 11:19 AM
Carlos in Cali

Pete, So you're still not sold on He's Had Enough?...

I'm thinking you will after he wins the Cashcall Futurity this weekend.

13 Dec 2012 1:20 PM
Pete Denk

Carlos-

I picked him. He ran a pretty good race in the BC Juvenile.

13 Dec 2012 2:08 PM
Pete Denk

Thanks Cathy. I actually came across Curly Top's replay while watching replays for the CAshCAll (he lost to Little Jerry).

13 Dec 2012 2:19 PM
El Kabong

Manando! Pulling away in race 1 for Baffert. This looked pretty good today. Crushed Curly Top and Persuasive Paul. Bluegrass Cat colt that has a future.

Pete, I like He's Had Enough this weekend but he'll be played heavy. He's no lock. He seems to get into trouble alot and with 11 horses in there, he could do it again.

13 Dec 2012 5:13 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

I saw Mountain Eagle's race he looked great,but a mile at Gulfstream can be misleading.Could this be Zitos Derby colt?

13 Dec 2012 5:30 PM
Pete Denk

Kabong-

No doubt there is a chance for trouble due to He's Had Enough's issues, the rail, and Gutierrez.

I think Title Contender could run much better if they rate him, and this afternoon I saw Baffert quoted in DRF saying the horse would be rated.

But I picked He's Had Enough as the most likely winner on the show...

13 Dec 2012 7:02 PM
Pete Denk

We tape That Handicapping Show at 9 am on Thursday mornings. My point being it's a little early to be giving final picks on Saturday races, unless there's something I just love in the race.

13 Dec 2012 7:22 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Racing Flow has a no brainer Downgrade on He's Had Enough,  regardless of who the competion is or how many of them there are.  

HHE failed to go by the winner Shanghai Bobby despite the extremely favorable Closers Flow on a track that was not biased.  It's unlikely he'll see such a set-up again.  

No thanks.

13 Dec 2012 8:16 PM
Karen in Texas

I saw the Klisz race and thought he was impressive. "Exploded" is precisely the right word to describe his late move! I was pleasantly surprised to later learn that he was a gelded son of Smarty.

13 Dec 2012 8:49 PM
THE KEYMASTER

Phil -

I think you've had enough.  Were you watching the same races as I was at SA over the BC?  That was one of the most biased tracks I have ever seen, regardless of what your figures say... that is why I got on Trinniberg and Fort Larned.  I figured both those horses had a good chance of going to the front and nobody would catch them on the conveyor belt of a track that was SA over the BC.

I'm not going to play He's Had Enough because I don't think he is any better than some other horses in the race and will be a low price.  However, to say SA was favorable to closers in either day at the BC is ridiculous.  I understand that the Juvenile Sprint, the Marathon,and the Filly and Mare Sprint were won from off the pace, but I think that had to do with the complexion of the races, not the track surface.  Hightail was the only closer in the Juvenile Sprint, the Marathon is such an odd race for American horses that it really shouldn't factor into anything, and Groupie Doll is pretty much a freak.  All other dirt races were won by frontrunners.

I don't mind skimming over your posts, but for all the touting you do, it would be nice to see some positive results for a change.

I'm not sure who I'm going to end up on the Cash Call yet, but I'm currently thinking Dirty Swag.  I just got home from Christmas Party, so need to do more handicapping and watch some race replays before making a final decision.  Fortunately, I have more than 48 hours to do so.

14 Dec 2012 12:23 AM
THE KEYMASTER

Oops, I guess I've had enough, as there isn't quite 48 hours to the Cash Call.  Still, even in the current state I'm in, I still have enough sense to know that there was a track bias favorable to frontrunners at SA during the BC.  To say that it was favorable to closers is absolutely wrong.

Anyway, time for bed, will handicap tommorrow...

14 Dec 2012 12:34 AM
Pete Denk

Plod Boy Phil-

The dirt track on both Breeders' Cup days was heavily biased toward speed and inside paths.

Not sure how you can say there was no bias.

14 Dec 2012 6:33 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Keymaster -

I have a positive ROI on this Blog.  I have posted more than 270 horses in 2012 at Racingflow.com,  all of which are available for review,  with an ROI of $2.00 - outstanding consider I do not 'handicap' races in the traditional sense.  I have been posting horse there since Dec 2008.  

THe FLOW of the Juv was extremely favorable to Closer.  Flow is a pace function - Bias is a measure of the amount of Closing on the entire day's card relative to what the Flow models indicate should have happened.  Simply put,  emphasis on simply,  the 1st half of the Juv was run in 45.6 seconds,  the 2nd half in 52.2 seconds and the final 1/16th in 6.8 seconds.

We stick by our innovative and oft written about methodology for Quantifying Bias.  Visual observations are subjective and are not part of the equation.  To read more,  visit the site.

Betting on a winner does not mean that the handicapper was right,  just that the result was good.  

Best of racing luck.

14 Dec 2012 6:47 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Pete -

The amount of closing that occured in all the dirt races (focusing on the top 3 finishers weighted accordingly) relative to the amount of Closing the models indicate should have occured based the the Flows of each race indicated that there was no Bias.  

We do not measure 'path',  since those paths are subjective to interpreation.  It begs the question,  was the inside 'good' around the entire oval in a uniform way ?

Further discussion of why visual observations regarding Bias is of little or no value would be redundant.

14 Dec 2012 7:03 AM
Pete Denk

So your flow-o-meter indicates there should have been a strong late flow in the Juvenile, yet not one horse could rally past the exhausted, slow moving leader. And your Bias Machine tells you "no track bias." Sounds like conflicting data.

Got news for you. Everything is open to interpretation, including the data u input into the Flow-o-meter and the equations it is using. You obviously get comfort from the sterile data output the Flow-o-meter gives you, but the truth is there are so many variables that cannot be quantified. A computer can play a great game of chess, but it will never pick horses as well as the best human handicappers.

14 Dec 2012 12:00 PM
THE KEYMASTER

Yeah, until they come up with a Deep Blue in the handicapping world, I will stick to my own subjective methods in following the horses and the people associated with them.

I will not argue that using some quantitative information such as fractional times, running position, etc. is not useful in handicapping.  But overall I feel there are too many variables before, during, and after a race that cannot be accurately quantified and these variables are better left up to subjective interpretation.

14 Dec 2012 12:35 PM
Karen in Texas

PBP----If Racing Flow theory has a Downgrade on He's Had Enough because he failed against Shanghai Bobby despite favorable Closers Flow on a track that was not biased; how does the theory apply to Capo Bastone? I'd have to review the race again, but I believe he was attempting to close and appeared to be running fairly well, but in fact bled a "3", (without Lasix) yet managed to finish third. He subsequently was sent to Alamo Pintado Clinic for treatment. Is he  a Downgrade, too? Seems that his circumstances could be considered one of the "variables" mentioned by Pete and Keymaster. I'm not being facetious, I'd really like to know.

14 Dec 2012 1:17 PM
Pete Denk

Lady Banks, hammered down to even money today, indeed won. She stays on my list. I'd love to see her go longer and be allowed to settle.

Win bet and tri in. Hopefully I can get this pick 4 home.

14 Dec 2012 2:04 PM
Pete Denk

Good result in the third leg of this Aqu pick4  as the longest of my three (#6 Wayward Sailor) gets home in front of a 4-to-5 chalk.

Live to 3-7-8-9 to close this out.

14 Dec 2012 2:07 PM
Pete Denk

The 8 closes out my play on Lady Banks beautifully!

Pick 4 pays $359 for 50-cents.

Not bad for an even-money single. My base play on the P4 was $36. 6x1x3x4

14 Dec 2012 2:31 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Pete -

I appreaciate you allowing me to post to yur blog.

Additionally,  assigning a made up name to that which you do not understand, Flow-o-meter, in an attempt to undermine it's brilliance is,  in itself,  brilliant.

I knew someone,  didn't expect it to be you,  would associate the Closer favoring Flow of the BC Juv (detailed above) and the fact that nobody passed as 'proof' that there was a Speed Bias.  The fact of the matter is that there have been only a handful of Speed Bias days at any major circuit this year that would have had any meaningfully impact on the pace scenario of the BC Juvenile.  That said,  even the most extreme Speed Bias we've ever recorded would have done nothing more than make the Juv fair for all.

Flow is based on hundreds of track and distance specific races.

Bias is based on the amount of closing recorde on as few as five races a day.  Even the most mathmatically challenged can guess which is of great importance.

In my post three days after the BC, I stated that Shanghai Bobby had run the best race of any dirt horse on the card.  He recorded what we term a 'vs Zip Win',  having wired a field despite the closer favoring nature of the pace scenario that unfolded. Thesewins are rare and often point to better things down the road.

Those that took the time this morning check us out at  www.racingflow.com/upgrades (joining the hundreds that come daily) were privy to yet another $12 winner,  this one at FG.

Congrats on a big day Pete.

Best of racing luck.

14 Dec 2012 4:53 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Karen -

Good question.

First, we upgraded both Capo and Fortify going into the race.

In a Closer favoring race,  we generally will donwgrade all runners that closed or failed to close ground if their early call beaten lengths were greater than that of the winner.  Thus,  on the merits of this race alone,  all runners behind SB would be downgraded.  Had Capo not bled,  perhaps he rolls by them all.  Had he done so, it would have cashed us a ticket but not overshadowed the fact that this imaginary win would have been achieved with the aid of a race Flow that was ideal for a deep closer.

Capo B will be a downgrade for me until proven otherwis.  

Best.

14 Dec 2012 5:05 PM
Pete Denk

"Race shapes"

I can't remember which author coined that term...

14 Dec 2012 5:32 PM
Karen in Texas

PBP---Thank you for answering my question. I suspect Capo Bastone will do "better" with the addition of Lasix, unless he sustained significant pulmonary scarring/damage.

14 Dec 2012 5:42 PM
Plod Boy Phil

re:  Cashcall Futurity

There are no Racing Flow upgrades.  Note that Title Contender is given a 'neutral' grade.  His MSW win came under an ideal scenario for a Speed horse from both a Flow and a Bias perspective.  This will effectively negate his upgrade in the BCJ.

We've downgraded:

1)He's Had Enough

8) Really Mr Greely

10) Little Jerry.

Best to all.

14 Dec 2012 6:55 PM
Plod Boy Phil

re:  Hol, 12/13/2012, R1

In re-reading Pete's opener to this thread and the subsequent postings,  I noticed some interest in Curly Top.

Notably, as Pete pointed out in a follow up to Cathy's post, CT exited the race won by Little Jerry, as did Persuasive Paul.

I'd like to point out that in a post to everyone's favorite 'KY VET' in the previous thread,  I indicated that there was an Important Closer Bias in efect on the main track on Nov 18.  

In Thursday's opener,  the public,  perhaps relying on a visually impressive effort and/or the big final time based speed figure,  made CT the odds-on favorite.  Clearly, nobody will get rich on an event like this, but being able to confidently discard the over-valued favorite in any race is always useful.

A similar situation arose today in the 8th at AQ.  The second choice,  What's the Record (2-1), received a rare bold downgrade designation from us,  making the neutral favorite a very viable single.  Again, discarding over-valued horses from horizontal tickets will improve long term ROIs.  

Finally,  in the aforementioned post on the previous thread regarding Nov 18th,  I indicated that Bull Time was worthy of play when next seen.  He's in the finale tomorrow.

14 Dec 2012 9:28 PM
NeverBend

Regarding Lady Banks:

>>At the sale she showed the ingredients of a high herd dynamic: a very strong presence and elite communication skills.<<

What does 'high herd dynamic' mean?  Presence is a feeling (opinion really) but I don't understand how one determines a horses communication skills?

When I first noticed Lady Banks I saw that her pedigree is very similar (Successful Appeal out of a Housebuster mare) to Coax Liberty, a nice filly that  that the trainer (Chuck Lawrence) also trained.

Thanks

14 Dec 2012 11:19 PM
El Kabong

Plod Boy Phil,

In regards to race 1 at Hollywood, you take credit for telling people that the favorite in a 5 horse field of two year olds will not win(he ran second) because of your observation that his previous race was over rated, influenced by a track bias. I guess only time will tell, but the other explanation for CT not winning might be that he simply ran up against a very talented, fit, well trained  horse who relished his first effort around two turns. Had any other horse but Manando been in that race, CT wins and Persuasive Paul runs second-they were 9 lenghts better than the other two horses in the field. THey lost because they ran up against a budding monster.You can pat your system on the back all you want. I know what I saw and that horse(Manando) is simply on another plain from CT and maybe many more 2 year olds. But then again, I could just be biased.

15 Dec 2012 7:33 AM
Kevin

At Gulfstream on Saturday, I like the #13 in the 7th if he draws in and the #7 in the 9th.  I'll build a Pick 3 around them. Both have what I feel are going to be solid betting favorites that are beatable, so odds should be good.

15 Dec 2012 8:45 AM
Plod Boy Phil

El Kabong:

Again, everything I posted above relates to a post from Dec 1 that is available for viewing.

Concur to some extent regarding Manando,  thou budding superstar seems a bit overstated.  Fact is,  Mandando had been on the wrong side of two very Closer favoring scenarios in his first two starts. He deserved to be the favorite - which is part of the point.

We are not result driven -  in other words,  no individual race result or series of results in any way determines that a handicapper or methodology was 'right or wrong'.  This view is contrary to most weekenders or even regular horse bettors.  Again,  see this exact statement on this thread. There is no confirmation that any horse won or lost as a result of any factor,  measureable or otherwise.  Again, as stated in previous posts, simply opening the gate at a different moment in time theoretically may impact race results,  especially in large fields.  Everything we do is based on the statistical concept of Regression towards the Mean - or, more simply put, everything will average out over the long run.

Curly Top may very well go on to be an outstanding horse - that was not the point of the post,  nor was patting myself on the back.  He may turn out to be the better horse, or maybe Persuasive Paul will.  I'll deal with each on an individual basis as races present themselves.

Transparency has always been my motto - all 280+ horses posted on the website are available for viewing.  The ROI of these free upgrades is in plain view.  There is never anything mentioned on this Blog by me or anywhere else for that matter, that is not documented or otherwise based on prior statements.

Best of luck with Mandando and all racing ventures.

15 Dec 2012 9:23 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Kevin:

We were impressed with Burn the Morgages' Alw1x win,  as he ran though a modestly Speed favoring Flow to win despite an early position that was less than ideal I(a vs Plod Win). In fact, we liked his chances in the G3 Commonwealth.  

Flow players may migrate towards the 1 Forward March.  His return dirt race was behind an Extreme for Speed (the 'vs Plod' off a layoff angle is a favoriteof ours)and he has two other races in his six race career that we feel are better than looks.

Best

15 Dec 2012 9:36 AM
Plod Boy Phil

El Kabong -

For the record, regarding Curly Top, I did not say 'he would not win',  just that his last effort was better than looks.  We don't ever claim to be able to predict the future, just analyze the past. It's for that reason that I do not consider myself a handicapper in the standard sense of the word.  Bet horses that look better than they do to the majority,  and let the chips fall where they may.

Our Downgrades do in fact win on occasion - my thoughts on these have been posted onnthe site for months now.  However, being statistically driven in this pari-mutual game,  we do know that betting all of our downgrades, especially at low odds, will get you to the poor house much quicker than usual.

15 Dec 2012 10:28 AM
Pete Denk

NeverBend-

I agree with you that to some extent presence is an opinion, although at THT we look for some very specific traits. How a horse enters new space is a big one.

re: your question on how to judge a horse's communication skills- Watch how the horse sends and receives information. Does it communicate with body language (lower level) or with intent (higher level)?

Also, and this is very important, watch the ears as a horse encounters stimulus.

15 Dec 2012 10:35 AM
Pete Denk

Plod Boy Phil-

Who does the Flow-o-meter pick to win the CashCall?

15 Dec 2012 10:37 AM
Coldfacts

The 2012 Cash Call Futurity is a handicapper’s nightmare. There are so many variables that a box wager has to be the one of choice.

HHA: Based on his work tab his first published work after the Nov6, BCJ was 24th Nov and his next was 10 day later on 5th Dec. His overall work pattern suggests all might not be well with this colt. This colt could bounce as his BCJ effort was taxing.

Dirty Swagg: Mr. Cho is close to being charged with animal cruelty. This colt contested the 8.5F Real Quiet on 11/10/2012. His next published work was on 11/20/2012 (35 for 3F). Five days later he worked 5F in 59. He is a May foal and his trainer is pilling on the work. Whatever happened to long and slow? This trainer is known for springing major upsets and he might remove the blinkers and land another.

Fury Kapcori: He returned 7 days after his Real Quiet to work 46 for 4F. His next two works were understandably very slow. His final work for the CCF suggests this imposing Tiznow colt will be the one to beat.

Little Jerry: This Candy Ride colt was acquired for $130K and must have looked good in the sale ring. His published works heading into his debut were extremely slow. He won on share ability as he spent most of the race in another zip code. He appeared a bit heavy for racing and the 8.5F gallop in his debut effort will no doubt transform him. Interestingly, his winning time of 1:46 2/5 compares favorably to the 1:46 recorded by Carving in the Real Quiet. It should be noted that his works after his debut are 2-3 seconds faster than those preceding. This colt will get the trip easily but will he be cable of running 3 seconds faster in the CCF? I think yes.

The colt that everyone will be ignoring is Simon Eyes the 4th place finisher in the Real Quiet. The Real Quiet was his first attempt beyond 6.5F. He was beaten by 2L. He has excellent tactical speed and is bred to run long. His dam sire Saint Ballado gave us Breeder Cup champions Saint Laim and Ashado. His sharp final work of 59 for the CCF makes him an extremely dangerous customer at a price.

15 Dec 2012 10:49 AM
El Kabong

Pete, for the Cash Call Futurity.

Tri Box-HHE, FK, V, DenL. 1,2, 5, 6 box.

Super 1 with 2,5,6 with 3,4,9,10 with 256.

1.HHE

2.FK, V, DenL

3. LJ, DSG, TC, Crv

4. FK, V, DenL

Coldfacts, I agree with your call on Fury Kapcori. He ran very green last time. If he runs with a little  more professionalism, he will have lots left in his tank. Works do look good as well.

15 Dec 2012 11:54 AM
El Kabong

Pete,

great question, love to see PBP's pick myself.

Plod Boy,

you commented that you "did not say that Curly Top would not win? " Now I'm confused. Then what did you mean when you said "being able to confidently discard the over-valued favorite (who was Curly Top) in any race is always useful? Sounds to me like a sufficient kick to the curb, and most definitely from the winners circle.

15 Dec 2012 12:16 PM
Pete Denk

Tihs Cashcall is a wide open race.

I see two approaches...large exotic wheel/box using the contenders u like -or- take a stand with someone u think is value.

He's Had Enough is my top pick, followed by Little Jerry (but he has to improve in the speed dept.), Title Contender, and Fury  Kapcori.

15 Dec 2012 12:22 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Pete -

You should give the people what they want and post my response to the Cashcall Futurity question,  as well as my response to Coldfacts great insight on Simon Eyes.  Otherwise,  readers may think I took my ball and went home....

15 Dec 2012 12:33 PM
Plod Boy Phil

El Kabong -

Do you really not understand the difference between downgrading a horse and stating 'it won;t win',  as if predicting the future.

The views I have shared here have been clear, concise and consistent.

* Bet on Racing Flow upgrades

* Bet against Racing Flow downgrades

* Let Regression towards the Mean and the very nature of the parimutual game do the rest.

15 Dec 2012 12:36 PM
Plod Boy Phil

There are no Racing Flow upgrades in the Cashcall Futurity.

I will be using Simon Eyes in a Daily Double to the upgraded Bully Time in the finale.  

I do not make flat bets on non-upgrades but will use neutral runners,  in races in which we have downgrades,  in horizontal wagers.  

Credit Coldfacts for pointing out the 'tandem effort' (phrase coined by William Scott many years ago) of Simon Eyes from a common race shared by three others in here that will likely be more heavily supported.

15 Dec 2012 12:50 PM
Pete Denk

PlodBoy-

Your system often bets multiple horses to win in the same race?

15 Dec 2012 1:28 PM
El Kabong

Plod Boy,

I understand plenty, but why don't you send me your decoder ring all the same.

I'm used to some folks in this hobby who love to leave statistical outs about all they state, lets call them flows, and they should, because there are no absolutes(if that's what you mean). But in this case you did use language which quite strongly suggested CT could be "discarded" as the winner. And indeed that is what happen. Now let's discuss what you failed to understand about my comment. It was the basis for your conclusion, that his last race was not all that great, that I was disagreeing with all along. He ran a great race and had he run against horses at his level, he would have won, but he didn't. I haven't seen the Beyer figures yet, but I'm sure he received a higher rating running 5 lengths behind Manando then he did losing a neck to Little Jerry. CT ran well last time and better this time by a full second. But, he ran against a far superior horse. Did you not notice the time on that race?  I noticed it,  and I noticed how easily Manando ran the 1:44 flat well in hand. Let's see how well they run the 1 1/16th today.

15 Dec 2012 1:44 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Pete -

A term like 'system', is, by it's nature,  degrading and implies a non-existent solution for a complex puzzle.  Knowledgeable and less condescending people use the term 'methodology'.  

We will have mutiple upgrades in the same race.  It's up to the subscriber to use the information as he or she sees fit in a betting pattern that suits them.

Sample Grades are available on the Upgrades & Analysis page of the web site.

I personally am not adverse to 'dutching' horses,  no more so than the average horizontal player is willing to use mutiple horses.  If I have two upgrades, one at 8-1 and one at 60-1 (see yesterday's 6th at GP), I will bet them both to win and box them in an exacta. Some will say bet the highest price to win,  etc.,  but I know what works best for 'my brain and bankroll',  to re-use the phrase that got Kevin up in arms.

15 Dec 2012 1:46 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Is that the same kind of Flow-O-Meter a urologist uses?

15 Dec 2012 1:49 PM
Plod Boy Phil

El Kabong -

Final time is only important to us in terms of how it relates to the other splits of the race.

15 Dec 2012 3:39 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

PBPhil whats the FOM pick for the Cash Call,if you want to pick several then do it.Lets see if you can box an exacta.

15 Dec 2012 5:44 PM
KY VET

FLOW MAN.....the breeders cup juv race was weak.....slow race.....failed to go by bobby in stretch? look at the race again....do you understand bobby pulled himself up? wasnt even trying....only until he saw the horses come up, did he just go fast enough to win.....failed to go by? really?  how about the best horse that day usually wins.....if they go fast early, they come home slow....if they go slow early, they come home fast........ thinking you "flow" "herd" people are funny.....

15 Dec 2012 6:46 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

KY Vet what is the professional viewpoint on betting the Cash Call?How do I increase my cash FLOW ?

15 Dec 2012 6:59 PM
El Kabong

PBP,

Oh, ok,.....well then, here they are....... start explaining what you mean.

Fractional Times: 24.65 48.90 1:13.60 1:37.67 Split Times: (24:25) (24:70) (24:07) (6:38) Run-Up: 80 feet

Final Time: 1:44.05

15 Dec 2012 7:31 PM
KY VET

watch violence last race...ran the fastest rating...jock had hold the whole way...because he was lugging in....which is bad sign...........i wouldnt run him today, id wait.................big horse, if he ran much faster, without asking.....what are the chances he runs good?  duh!..............of course unles he goes bad...............so, win tooday, then im off him..........

15 Dec 2012 7:45 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

1,5,9 Ex and Tri boxes in da Cash Call, and a tri wheel with 1,5,9 on top,adding 6, 11 in 2nd and 3rd.

15 Dec 2012 7:50 PM
Plod Boy Phil

El Kabong -

Racing Flow figs for this week will be out on Monday night. I'll pass on my interpretations at that time.

15 Dec 2012 7:50 PM
El Kabong

Plod Boy Phil

When do cash flows come out?

15 Dec 2012 8:10 PM
KY VET

DUH!....no bad signs today....

15 Dec 2012 9:02 PM
Plod Boy Phil

All Racing Flow figures for the week of December 12-December 16 will be out on Monday night.

15 Dec 2012 9:08 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Kinda feels like being on a slow elevator to the 100th floor with a bunch of strangers....someone needs to turn around and start talking about the weather.

Anyone have opinions today ?

16 Dec 2012 11:47 AM
Coldfacts

Why does a colt with tactical speed need blinkers. American trainers are obsessed with head equipment in general and blinkers in particular. Fury Kapcori pulled his rider to the lead effortlessly. Without the blinkers the colt would have been less keen and more ratable. He did the same thing in the Real Quiet and could not rally to defeat Carving.  This colt has a lot of fight but needs to have full view of his opponents. I recognize that trainers know best but I cannot forget when the blinkers were removed from the very fast Premier Pegasus he rated off fast fractions and spread eagled a G3 Stakes field.

16 Dec 2012 12:07 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Perhaps they are waiting for the spring for the change ?

A cursory glance at the Flow of the Cashcall (no Bias calc) indicates modestly Closer friendly.  FK people have to be pleased with his performance.

16 Dec 2012 1:03 PM
KY VET

aqu race 5 #6 ab beauty

16 Dec 2012 2:22 PM
KY VET

that was easy....2 horse race on tote board....6,8.....8 horse didnt change leads last out until late...again today....problems....that made it #6...........or a wake up.......6/5 because of me, but i'll take it....

16 Dec 2012 2:26 PM
KY VET

turfway...race 4....#2 is 3/5...might win, but every time he fires...be bounces.....that leaves 3 or 5....like both, but #5 blue cherrie spin is my pick to come flying

16 Dec 2012 2:33 PM
KY VET

aqu race 6...tough tough....wide open....tons of speed.....who might improve? how bout #1mywayordubaiway....try to rate....w/p

16 Dec 2012 2:35 PM
KY VET

turfway... 253....close,but almost beat huge fave....place better than nuttin

16 Dec 2012 2:38 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Flow Players three legs into the GP P5 on a 1x1x2x1x2 investment = $2 on a $0.50 base

The value to the ticket came via a single of Fiscal Fitness in the 7th.

16 Dec 2012 4:22 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Csaba airs for Racing Flow Players

DDs, P3s and P5s roll on.

16 Dec 2012 4:42 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Only live to one horse in the finale at GP - we were two deep in the 9th, 2 and 8.  (1x1x2x2x1).

The 9th posed a very interesting scenario in which two horses involved in the dead heat last out,  were given opposite Grades.  Csaba was credited with a 'vs Zip Win',  while Ducduc was downgraded for the 'With Zip Win'.

The anchor horse in the GP 10th is the 5 West Side Glory - the pace setter of an Extreme Race for Closers last out.

16 Dec 2012 4:54 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Now that was truly an anchor.

16 Dec 2012 5:28 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

SueSteps on the conveyor belt and FLOWS past the meter to win the 10th at GP.West Side Glory will have to wait for another day.

16 Dec 2012 5:33 PM
Plod Boy Phil

A very nice five race sequence nonetheless. Those Flowm players that made all possible rolling gimmicks (DDs, P3s, P4, P4) invested a minimum of $23 for a healthy profit of ~$390.

Handicappers, that's not me, did not have to look too hard to get to the winner of the finale.

'Upgrades Only' minimizes ticket sizes and thus financial exposure while providing live runners at fair prices.

16 Dec 2012 6:01 PM
KY VET

hol race 7.....7 horse big fav.....try to beat because ran good race after long layoff...broke slow and ran good last only out......go with #2 off 7 months,,,

16 Dec 2012 6:32 PM
KY VET

hmmmm....right again...the 7 was 3rd....2 horse wired easy.....love this game!

16 Dec 2012 6:39 PM
KY VET

hol race 8....sometimes, you just know an upset race....the favs look like they are going off form......4,6,10...predict all to dissapoint...5 or 7 i think....i'll go with #7 wp

16 Dec 2012 6:56 PM
KY VET

3rd in 8th.......hol race 9 king glorious sks........i smell upset...5,7,9,or 11.....ill go with 11 tizaminister

16 Dec 2012 7:20 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Racing Flow upgraded two horses in the 9th at Hollywood Park:

5 Hussar

8 Wewinnin

No kidding.

16 Dec 2012 7:42 PM
KY VET

race 9...60 to one wins.....had right idea....

16 Dec 2012 7:48 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Weewinnin:  was upgrade for the chasing effort behind the w-w winner of a near Extreme Race for Speed (CFR 4)

Hussar:  was upgraded for a modest 'vs Plod Win'

Flow Players,  knocked out with the single in the 8th,  are live to the 3 in DDs,  and most likely had the exacta or Q.

Good stuff.

16 Dec 2012 7:51 PM
KY VET

call me crazy...but i dont like 2/5 wobegone in 10th.....wp #9 airyen love

16 Dec 2012 8:07 PM
KY VET

boom goes the dynamite! beat by 49 to 1 shot again......right about the huge fav......great place payoff.....but darn! to be a pro...you must know when horses are gonna run bad....sometimes you get beat by bomb!

16 Dec 2012 8:14 PM
KY VET

race 11 hol......here we go again....#2 big fav....aug. ran 83 brisnet..2 months off...no excuse getting 3rd with 82 shouldve improved...last race no excuse again..beaten at even money running 80.....horse not a good fav today....3 highest ratings, and i go against her......1,3,7 9 12 only contenders......grab bag...wide open....#9 wp longshot

16 Dec 2012 8:25 PM
Mary Zinke

GL, KY. I like the 9 and 12.  

16 Dec 2012 8:37 PM
-Keelerman

Congratulations, Ky Vet! It looks like you had a really nice day! In particular, good call in the 11th at Hollywood.

16 Dec 2012 10:31 PM
Forbidden Apple

Considering the slow pace of the Hollywood Starlet, I thought Pure Fun was much more impressive than Violence. Violence has already run too fast and I don't see him as a threat in a 1 1/4 mile race. Pure Fun has a solid foundation and plenty of talent.

A Hard Spun filly named Dawn's Charm roared down the stretch at Hollywood on friday December 14. If you missed the 6th race that day, go back and watch the replay. This girl went 21.81 44.52 and was galloping to the wire in 1:16.74. After Questing last year, I think Hard Spun is already proving that he is a valuable and potent sire.

17 Dec 2012 11:03 AM
-Keelerman

For those who are interested, a number of prominent horses turned in workouts this morning at Palm Meadows Training Center. Some of the more notable were . . .

Shanghai Bobby: 4f in :52.03, his first work since the Breeders' Cup.

Palace Malice: 4f in :49.55.

Discreet Dancer: 3f in :37.33, his first work since March 19th.

Soldat: 4f in :53.66.

17 Dec 2012 1:35 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Keelerman did you watch the workouts in person?

17 Dec 2012 2:05 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Pete do you have anything to do, as in a financial interest, in the Flow-O-Meter methodology?

17 Dec 2012 6:05 PM
Footlick

I don't quite understand the antagonism toward Plod Boy Phil, the demands to show how the data he uses works.  The website is there for anyone who is really interested.  And he seems to have just given you a big price winner.  Just saying.  Maybe I missed something somewhere.  Has he insulted all of you and I missed that comment?

17 Dec 2012 6:38 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Footlick -

To clarify,  I did not give either of the two Racing Flow upgrades that were on Sunday's Graded Report that produced the $1,2031 exacta in the 9th.  In fact, following that race,  I commented here that we were live to just the 3,  saying nothing about the 7.  There was a reason for that,  but more on it later.

There are few points that I do wish to make:

1) Everything posted on our humble web site or on this Blog is the truthful -  we have too many subscribers in the game for it to be otherweise.

For four years,  our subscribers have included multiple owners, a couple of trainers and a few people that have enjoyed long and respected careers in the sport. Of course,  the majority are just everyday smart horse bettors that know a good thing when they see it.

Two of our long time supporters are the hosts of TrackFacts LIVE (the show Pete and Kerry appeared on).  The Show has been a staple of the Saratoga racing community for decades.  Tom Amello,  always looking for innovative minds in the game,  was quick to see the brilliance of our work - perhaps driven by the name attached to two feature articles in the DRF in Jan/Feb 2009.

There is a reason we have been guests on Tom's weekly program roughly 30 times since Feb 2009 - we produce winners and provide great information.  Viewers of the seven Sunday shows during Saratoga in 2012 enjoyed a $5.83 ROI on our upgrades.

Additionally, as the site reveals,  we been the subject of several feature articles. They may be viewed on the About racing Flow page of racingflow.com for those interested in learning about what we do.

2) The free upgrades posted on the site have been enjoyed by hundreds of people daily for the same four years.  Of note, unlike most (all) racing sites,  every horse is viewable during the entire calender year and beyond, win or lose.  The ROI is posted all year long with monthly updates.  There is a reason why I've always done this - winners. The first horses I posted in December 2008 poduced a $26 winner and a $200 exacta.

Becasue we put Figures and races,  handicappers may read the posted info supporting one horse and use it to garnish insight to other horses from the day or race,  pending the specific write-up.

3) I came within an eyelash of posting on this Blog all the upgrades an hour before the Late P4 yesterday at Hollywood.  However, I could not do such a thing, as that information belongs to our paying customers, and nobody else.  It's worth noting that few of the Bonus Plays on the site ever come from a track that is part of the weekend subscriber Grades.  My loyalty to a very smart group of bettors is a no brainer.

4) Has anyone noticed that the Daily Double in Hollywood Race 9/10 was hit ~15 times ?  Seems like a lot of tickets for two $100 horses in full fields.  How many of those tickets do you think were held by Racing Flow subscribers ?  How about nearly every one.

Thanks for the support.

Best of racing luck.

-PBP

17 Dec 2012 7:41 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Back to the matter at hand, analyzing the past.

- The Cashcall Futurity was indeed favorably to Closers,  though not anywehere neaar the extent that the BC Juv was.  We'll give a modest downgrade to the winner, while Fury Kapcori gets the upgrade - impressive considering the margin back to third despite that one and those behind having favorable runs.  He's Had Enough,  the topic of heated debate on the Blog this week,  will slip even further into the depths of Downgrade world, with yet another failure despite favorable conditions for his style.

- El Kabong was quite interested in the opener at Hollywood on Wednesday.  Additonally,  I did see a tweet out there somewhere in which someone commented on the final times of the two races (his and Violence) being similar. It's our opinion that Fury Kap would be too much for Manando at this stage.

Racing Flow gave the MSW race won by Manando a Speed favoring rating,  based in part on a modestly Speed favoring surface and a Race Flow (most importantly) that clearly favored a loose leader.  We'll DG him,  while Curly Top and Pesuasive Paul get the upgrades.  With lightly raced two year olds,  a recent upgrade will outway a previous downgrade,  especially if the DG was solely Bias driven,  as was CTs debut.

Regards.

17 Dec 2012 8:09 PM
KY VET

plod blog....why not just say youre a pace guy....why not start an even or odd horse picker site....that way you can say "see? i told you an odd number would win!"  the point being, you are convinced the reason the horse won, is the fact that he had an odd number......Look, pace is ONE PIECE of handicapping! You must be a master of many many things......your science is faulty....look no further, than the downgrade on violence....and the upgrade on fury cap......you dont seem to understand a horse that won playing...not all out....look at the pic of him winning in the drf.....ears up....the horse has way more talent, and ran just as fast as he had to.....this is what he did race before.....on the other hand, the fur horse, ran the best race of his life.......what do you think THATS gonna do to him?  Can you say bounce?.......hey....if you give half the horses upgrades, you can point out alot of winners after the race happend huh? Anyone realize this?      real good science!!!!!!!!!!!!!

17 Dec 2012 8:55 PM
KY VET

mnr race 6 #8 dream victory

17 Dec 2012 9:03 PM
KY VET

gotta go cash........see the 8 go from 7/2 going into gate to 2/1 in race? that was me!!!!        pro...

17 Dec 2012 9:09 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Actually,  the more upgrades we have in a race,  the less likely we are to have a good result.

Does anyone actually have to 'go anywhere' to cash tickets anymore ?

17 Dec 2012 9:47 PM
-Keelerman

I'm afraid not, Chief Picawinna. However, if you'd like details on Shanghai Bobby's breeze, a brief article on the subject can be found at DRF.com: www.drf.com/.../gulfstream-park-shanghai-bobby-gets-work-holy-bull-his-starting-point

17 Dec 2012 9:54 PM
JayJay

Plod Boy Phil : I'm a semi believer of your "flow" because I prefer watching the races to handicap than reading the form.  When I bet on a horse, my eyes are focused on that horse throughout the race or at least I try to.  I will make a note if I thought the horse ran their hearts out and just not good enough or if they had trouble, if they had trouble or the jockey never asked the horse, then I'll put them on my list for next time.  When that horse runs again, I'll have a deep look at them but still have to consider what type of race, distance and odds they have.   I'd like to give a shout out to Bloodhorse video team for putting out a lot replay videos out there lol.

So do you guys cover all races or only specific races ?  If I subscribe and I want to get the winners from you guys from Gulfstream, Tampa Bay and Fairgrounds, would those be available ?  I like the upgrades and downgrades.  I'll probably sign up after the holidays to try it out to see if you guys can beat my handicapping angles LOL.

There are folks who spends a lot of time reading the racing form over and over and over again, then plays the favorite with their big money on every race they play.  At the end of the day, they barely make their money back if they even do.  I just think it's such a dumb way and a waste of time but  to each their own.

17 Dec 2012 10:37 PM
JayJay

Oh and Keelerman, meant to thank you for the updates on Palace Malice!  Really appreciate the updates.   Have you started your TC list ?  Any horse you're following now ?

17 Dec 2012 10:38 PM
KY VET

i will challenge anybody....loser leaves blog for 2 weeks.....your choice of 2 full cards......w/p....2 diff ways to win....most winners/ most payout....anyone anytime......1 horse per race.......HOW ABOUT THE PRO VS> THE FLOW?  people that cant handicap say they box many in exactas....then their 3rd choice beats their 2nd choice, and tell you they picked race.......this is about knowlege and talent........how about it flow guy?   this can help you....let me teach you.....show you your bad picks and your good choices.....learn.......from the best

17 Dec 2012 11:10 PM
Plod Boy Phil

JayJay -

To clarify,  we do not use any subjective analysis in creating our Flow and Bias figures.  In other words,  I do not watch replays other than for the sole purpose of relishing victories.

From the list of three tracks you provided,  we cover Gulfstream and Fair Grounds,  but only GP is part of the Graded Reports.  We do cover complete circuits for NY (AQ, BEl, Sar), Fl, KY, IL, SoCal, OP and SoCal.  PDFs provide full complete Figures for non-Formulator users.

I'll assume you have looked at the site.  As I encouraged earlier, please contact me via the e-mail found at the top of the Upgrades & Analysis page so we may discuss further.  I will not bother you with hard sell, or unwanted e-mails,  though I would like to answer answer additional questions you may have, regardless of your subscription status.  

Based on your regular late hours, I got the sense you were a West Coaster,  but your tracks of choice say otherwise.

Regards

Thanks Pete for making this conduit available.

-Phil

17 Dec 2012 11:33 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

OK Keelerman I wasnt interested in Shanghai Bobby's breeze but all the workouts from one trainer that I follow and sometimes go to Gulfstream in person to bet.

18 Dec 2012 6:03 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Plod Boy Phil what is your financial arrangement with Pete,that he allows you to advertise your service on this blog.

18 Dec 2012 6:04 AM
Footlick

Plod Boy Phil- I only saw the posts about Wewinnin being an upgrade.  I didn't look to see whether they were posted before the race.  Anyway, I just didn't understand the antagonism toward you.  

18 Dec 2012 11:19 AM
Rusty Weisner

All,

I humbly warn you off anyone who refers to himself in the second person plural.  Especially someone who watched the Breeder's Cup Sprint at Santa Anita and didn't see a bias.

18 Dec 2012 11:47 AM
THE KEYMASTER

Agreed Rusty.  That was one of the most biased tracks I've ever seen, and any methodology that would say otherwise seems to be flawed.  There are too many subjective variables in racing to rely on a computer system.

18 Dec 2012 11:59 AM
Rusty Weisner

Meant "first person plural".

18 Dec 2012 12:14 PM
-Keelerman

JayJay;

This isn't quite finished yet -- I'm still switching the order around a bit! -- but here's a draft of my first Derby Dozen:

1. Dewey Square

2. Normandy Invasion

3. Capo Bastone

4. Shanghai Bobby

5. Gulfport

6. War Academy

7. Violence

8. Titletown Five

9. Overanalyze

10. Long River

11. Uncaptured

12. Palace Malice

-Keelerman

18 Dec 2012 1:59 PM
El Kabong

Rusty,

Too funny, you didn't need to explain smeagol.

"We told him to go away...... and away he goes, Prescious! Gone, gone, gone!  Smeagol is free!

18 Dec 2012 2:31 PM
KY VET

how about this random race....race 5 tup......#1 hanger thirtyeight...back class....keeps running bad.....today he wakes up   w/p #1

18 Dec 2012 3:47 PM
El Kabong

PBP,

I'll upgrade Manando when I see the particulars of his next race.  He appears to me to be a smart, very relaxed runner with high cruising speed and not a true front runner like FK. When he runs up a against a Fury Kapcori, I do not believe he will slug it out for the lead and keep in mind how easily he ran those splits and drew off under a hand ride. Fury Kapcori put the pedal to the medal as I suspected he would and was impressive because he did hold up for a piece of the ticket which I was counting on for my trifecta. That said, and based on what I saw this race and the one before,  I would lose confidence on a horse like this when he starts to add a panel or even a sixteenth more, if he doesn't learn to rate. Manando based on his composure in only his third race, and his breeding, is going to only get better as the distance increases. They have a month or two to grow up and get ready for the road to Kentucky and alot can physically change, but I prefer the horse who has shown his ability to rate at this point.

18 Dec 2012 3:48 PM
KY VET

tup race 5...lost iron! come on man! pulled up

18 Dec 2012 3:52 PM
KY VET

tup race 8...either 4 or 5 horse...lets go with #4 astarforbush  tup race 10 #11 larey'''''

18 Dec 2012 4:00 PM
Rusty Weisner

El Kabong,

Now THAT's too funny.  

Go hits us some trifectases.

18 Dec 2012 4:24 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Chief Pic -

We have no financial arrangement with Pete Denk.

I appreciate his willingness to post my information on his Blog and have stated so from the beginning.

18 Dec 2012 5:15 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Footlick -

I do - no problem.

Be happy to send you the weekend's Grades and any other product you may have interest in. Shoot an e-mail to me - no strings or expectations.

If not interested, not a problem.

Best of racing luck.

18 Dec 2012 5:40 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty -

The reason I refer 'us', as 'we',  is beacause there actually are two of us.

18 Dec 2012 5:45 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty - Part 2

Perhaps you are confused.

A Bias takes into account all the races run on a particular surface during a race card.  Thus, one could not argue, at least not intelligently, that watching any one specific race would provide enough information to form a reasonable opinion.

Flow is the measurement WE assigned to a particluar race.  Without knowledge of Flow ('race shape' to over simplify), any judgement of track Bias is purely subjective speculation and meaningless.

Like I said before, if those attempting to ascertain the presence of a track Bias by observing races, they would do themselves a great service by not looking at the PPs or the odds of the card they were attempting to classify.  

How likely is that to happen ?

18 Dec 2012 6:02 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Keymaster -

I agree that racing is filled with subjective varibales - establishing track Bias should not be one of them.

Guessing He's Had Enough did not handle the track....

18 Dec 2012 6:16 PM
Plod Boy Phil

El Kabong -

As you see fit,  of course.

He's a DG for us whether it's an Alw1x in a field of 8 at 6/5, or a stakes race at 8-1.  

Upgrades and Downgrades do not take into account anything regarding 'todays' race (conditions, competition, surface, etc),  thus,  I do no conventional handicapping in assigning them.

I stopped handicapping horse races several years ago.  That's for people much smarter than me.

18 Dec 2012 6:37 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Did I miss anyone ?

18 Dec 2012 6:38 PM
JayJay

Plod Boy Phil: Yes, I'm from the west coast but I don't like playing the local track here (Golden Gate), so I only play the Southern CA tracks.  I like playing  GP, FG and TB as the payouts are great for the type of betting I do.

I just wish I win more.

18 Dec 2012 9:21 PM
JayJay

Footlick : I don't get it either.  I'm not a full believer of the "flow"  but it's something different so I'll try it, if not for curiousity.  People still use the Racing form as their basis for handicapping and even worse, the Beyer.  I applaud PBP for being level headed and responded with his reasons without having gone postal lol.

I don't think anyone here has a perfect handicapping skills, anyone who claims they do are just full of it and delusional.  I'm not changing my handicapping angles by checking out Flow, if it works for me, I'll keep it in mind, if it doesn't ... well it doesn't.    My rule is, it's my money, I'll play and gamble it my way, if I lose, I'll lose because of my bet, not because I listen to someone.  Some insight does help and that's why I go to this blog, to read other people's opinions.

I find it funny that KY Vet insults everyone here and spams the blog with his picks and is welcomed but PBP posts his handicapping angles and everyone jumps him lol.   Makes me wonder...

18 Dec 2012 9:44 PM
Plod Boy Phil

JayJay -

Understood.

With AQ on Christmas break,  we'll be adding FG to the three track Graded Report this weekend.  Unfortunately,  with the number of horses entered from minor tracks that we do not cover tend, upgrades tend to be few and far between. This will pass as we get into February.

18 Dec 2012 9:46 PM
KY VET

Race 8 tup Winner!!! on the 4.....race 10 lost.winner 30/1

18 Dec 2012 10:05 PM
KY VET

Insults?

Not really....Pointing out flaws in the science, isnt insulting....if you come in here claiming to be some sort of expert, or innovator....be ready to be challenged......the guy wont give any picks...just "oh, this upgrade horse won.....i actually look forward to some picks......but none come.....jay jay doesnt claim to know anything and doesnt even read a form.....thats fine......but someone trying to get people to join.....as some kinda expert is another thing...............

18 Dec 2012 10:16 PM
KY VET

shanghai bobby downgraded because he was a closer? He was right there...not a closer....the bcjuv race was horrible time.....partly because bobby completely pulled himself up...(see zenyatta)...bobby just jogged...that race was a workout...to downgrade bobby is laughable.....same story with violence...slow race, weak field....that horse just goes as fast as he has to.......YOU SHOULD WATCH A RACE!!! you want people to take you seriously? dont rely on one little thing.............good day sir..........MASTER OF ALL TRADES...(PRO)

18 Dec 2012 10:28 PM
Plod Boy Phil

KY VET -

Just sharing information that can actually be substantiated.

Nothing more.

Perhaps the cohesive thoughts and full sentences are throwing you off.

Good luck.

18 Dec 2012 10:58 PM
JayJay

KY VET : The only information I'm really hoping to get out of you is the color of the sky in your world because you've  obviously lost it.  Your handicapping angle of guessing when horses will wake up has not worked well for you so to claim bloggers here does not know anything and you do shows how delusional you are.  I dare you to go back and check all your picks and post your winning percentage.

Speaking of taking you seriously, you need to try something else besides "this horse will wake up" angle, it's really just guessing.   Like I said, if you bet EVERY race, you're bound to hit one or two.  If guessing is all it takes to be a PRO, then I'm a freakin' genius.

PS: I'm glad you learned something from my post above about watching races, at least you're on your way to learning how to handicap.  Let me know if you have any questions.

18 Dec 2012 11:02 PM
Plod Boy Phil

JayJay -

You'd think after nearly 30 years of 'handicappping', including nearly two decades as a 'sheet wacko' (Andrew Beyer's great line from the 1993 Handicapping Expo),  I'd have learned something by now.

Thanks for the offer, much appreciated.....good stuff.

I'm interested in the 8th at GP tomorrow.  It's posted on site.

-Phil

-PBP

18 Dec 2012 11:13 PM
Coldfacts

Keelerman,

I hope you do not mind my commenting on your initial Derby Dozen. The list contains some expected horses and some not so expected i.e., War Academy, Titletown Five and Palace Malice.

At your convenience evaluate Tulira Castle and you might find that he is more worthy of inclusion than the above three. I am surprised he has not been purchased by a big outfit after his recent victory at Gulfstream. He is probably not for sale. He has to be a serious Derby horse base on his pedigree and performances to date.

His sire War Pass needs no introduction in the speed department. In spite of repeated correction, the KY Vet persists with his claim that Uncle Mo holds the record for the highest beyer in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. That distinction belongs to War Pass. Tulira Castle high cruising speed is definitely attributable to his sire.

His dam line has an oversupply of stamina. His dam Tulira was sired by General Assembly a son of the immortal Secretariat. General Assembly finished second in the 1979 Kentucky Derby and won the Travers. Tulira's dam was sired by Unconscious who finished 5th as the beaten favorite in the 1971 Kentucky Derby. Unconscious was sired a Prince Royal an Arc winning son of two times Arc winner Ribot. The dam of the 1993 Derby Winner Sea Hero was sires by Graustrak a son of  Ribot  so there is some Derby history from this dam line.

Tulira Castle currently races as a homebred and this category has accounted for 6 of the last 9 Derby winners. If I have provided a bit more information than you need, I request your forgiveness.

18 Dec 2012 11:24 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

Let me go to two quotes of yours.  First:

"HHE failed to go by the winner Shanghai Bobby despite the extremely favorable Closers Flow on a track that was not biased."

I interpreted that the same way everyone else here did.  You didn't perceive a bias that prevailed all day.  I cited the Sprint as the epitome of that bias -- again, everyone else here understood that.

One of your answers to that was this:

"Flow is the measurement WE assigned to a particluar race.  Without knowledge of Flow ('race shape' to over simplify), any judgement of track Bias is purely subjective speculation and meaningless."

Does everyone here understand what a tautology is?

To quote Groucho Marx, "Who do you believe, me or your lying eyes?"

Pardon me!  That should have been "...US or your lying eyes".

19 Dec 2012 10:44 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty -

What about the BC Sprint made you believe it was the 'epitome' of the Biased track ?

Do you know the magnitude of a Bias that would have been required to merely offset the Flow of the BC Juvenile so that it would be fair to all,  never mind to make it favorable to Speed ?  

In retrospect,  I should have written,  'subjective speculation and of little value', rather than 'meaningless',  or stipulated (again) that it is meaningless to us.

Does the commonality of an opinion garnished using the same flawed methods somehow make it 'correct'?  Everyone said so,  so it must be true.

We're big fans of Groucho and Brothers.  a truly funny racing video has been posted on the last page of our site for the btter part of a year now.

19 Dec 2012 11:51 AM
predict

I have already seen the winner of next year's Kentucky Derby. His name is Violence, three for three now, and will be the choice come the first Saturday in May. This horse must be one of the best kept secrets ever or the connections are surprised like everyone else. I don't think anyone here was tooting his horn before the Cash

Cal, but you should be now. I don't care that the race was run in slow time, I don't care that he is a Medaglia D'Oro(never showed great 1 1/4 mile ability), but everything changed for the Kentucky Derby scene when he won this race. There was someone who was aware of his ability before the Cash Cal, because he or they dropped one hundred grand on him to win the race, which moved him from what I think was about 7 to 2 odds down to I think it was 6 to 5 at post time. If anyone has seen a better prospect for the Derby next year, I would love to hear about it.

19 Dec 2012 12:27 PM
Coldfacts

Predict,

Do you remember a colt by the name Union Rags? He was produced from a Gone West mare like Violence. He was more impressive than Violence and was the early favorite for the Derby.  It’s way too early to commit to any one horse.

Violence is trained by Todd Pletcher who has won one Derby from 39 starters. He holds the record for consecutive last place finishers in the great race. The colt might be talented but his trainer’s Derby program does not inspire confidence.

Here are 10 colts that are flying under the radar that you can evaluate. Tulira Castle, Little Distorted, Purple Egg, Mountain Eagle, Boundless Heart, Smooth Bert, Fear The Kitten, Orb, Transparent and Narvaez.

19 Dec 2012 1:01 PM
El Kabong

Predict,

Whoa Nelly(belle)!!! It's still December and the talent of any of these possible contenders is subject to all the growth and maturity that will take place over the next 2-3 months. Violence is a very good two year old and 3-0 is a great record but even that is subject to the "who did he beat" question come April. I didn't exactly toot his horn, nor really anyone else in particular in CashCall, but I did put Violence in a group of 4 that I thought stood out and would take the tri of that race. Two very good races and the fact that Pletcher saw fit to ship him against a horse(HHE) he presumed would run as well as Shanghai was a pretty good clue this was a serious horse. My only question on Violence was the track surface but he handled it well. That time for 1 1/16th isn't bad at all for 2 year olds, in fact, I think it's a good one. Most of the AW times are typically slower than the fast dirt times. This guy is a player and should be followed but a derby shoe in call this soon is very bold my seasoned capper :0

Current  Derby watch list:

Uncaptured, Normandy Invasion, Manando, Violence, Dewey Square, Overanalyze, Frac Daddy, Capo Bastone, He's Had Enough, Shanghai B, River Seven, Indiano Jones, Tesseron, Gulfport, Joha, Power Broker and of course, Hi-Hat. All have shown some talent(some in film) but even if you gave me a future win on them all, I wouldn't feel real confident about cashing at this point. Don't let Derby Fever get you in December. If your fever persists, Call Dr. Hugo Z.Hackenbush and have him prescribe you something. I swear by him. And stay away from the tutsi fruitsy ice-a-cream.

19 Dec 2012 2:09 PM
-Keelerman

Coldfacts;

You needn't worry about providing me with too many details; I enjoy every last one!

Thank you for bringing Tulira Castle to my attention. He does look like a good one.

I am also intrigued by the runner-up in Tulira Castle's most recent start, that being the Michael Matz-trainee Fredericksburg. After spending the first four starts of his career on turf, the switch to dirt yielded a much-improved performance. Being of a son Speightstown out of a Dynaformer mare, I have the feeling that distance will not be an issue for Fredericksburg. Do you have any thoughts?

-Keelerman

19 Dec 2012 2:13 PM
Rusty Weisner

Keelerman,

I'm game for any list.

What do you like about Dewey Square so much to put him first?  And why'd you leave off Frac Daddy?

19 Dec 2012 4:22 PM
Footlick

Plod Boy Phil- been away from BH for a few days.  Thanks for the offer, but I really only concentrate on Euro racing anymore. I follow racing in the US, but rarely bet unless I am at Arlington Park, and then I bet to support the track.  I usually break even once beer and food are included without being too serious about it.  And the people are good people there so when it is open I =like to go on Sundays and just relax and have a nice time.  I will drop by your site soon though and have a look around.  I'll drop you an e-mail there to say hi!

Thanks again.

19 Dec 2012 10:59 PM
Pete Denk

Good discussion folks.

There are no graded stakes this Saturday, so Tom and I will talk 2yos on That Handicapping Show tomorrow.

Save your lists to post on the new blog tomorrow.

Keelerman, I like a couple of your's.

Dewey Square is interesting. Perhaps a slight reach at #1, but I really liked how he looked physically in the Ky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill.

20 Dec 2012 12:01 AM
Pete Denk

Anyone, including Plod Boy Phil, is welcome to post picks and handicapping logic whenever they want.

But one rule: if u r on here representing your own website or "system," don't crow about selections that were not posted on this blog. It amounts to unsubstantiated advertising. I am going to delete those posts if I see them, especially from repeat offenders.

So post your plays, share your logic, accept plaudits or defeat, and we can all form our own opinions and learn.

I appreciate all the posts on this blog. It is even entertaining at times.

20 Dec 2012 12:48 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Plod Boy Phil as per the previous post by blogmaster Pete Denk since you dont post the picks on here before the race I personally dont think your advertising will be effective.If Im not mistaken I read that your site has been operational for four years,if you are so confident in the method what about a free trial?

20 Dec 2012 3:28 AM
Coldfacts

Rusty Weisner,

The extract from a previous post might provide some insight into why Keelerman is high on Dewey Square:-

Ranagulzion,

“It is well known that you have labeled horses from the A P Indy sire line as being affected by Late Development Syndrome (LDS). After consuming portions of the rather large bird that is featured on the tables of each household on TG day. Try to digest the fact that a Bernardini colt will romp in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and in so doing will remain undefeated in 3 starts.

Dewey Square did not meet his reserve in the Select 2YO sale in which he was entered. His breeders refused $575K suggesting he is considered to be something special. Bernardini’s stud fee is $140K and therefore $435K should have been sufficient to all costs with plenty left for a significant profit.

His connections should have been charged with a crime for his 11 3/4L thrashing of the 1-2 favorite in his debut at Hoosier Park. He was then entered in an Optional Claiming race at CD and won under minimum urging.

This colt covers ground effortlessly just like his sire. I am aware the Uncaptured will be the overwhelming favorite but I suspect Dewey Square will be asked to run on Saturday and I am looking forward to an impressive performance that will launch him as one watch on the Derby trail.

NB: 3-1 or 4-1 will not be available on this colt after Saturday.”

Needless to say when I saw 6-1 in the KJC Stakes I went in for the kill and lost a ton. I was not pleased with the ride he received as he was no allowed to engage the leaders as he did in his previous two starts. The pace was moderate and there was no way he was going to make up sufficient ground on the leaders in the stretch to win.  He recently worked 59 effortlessly in Florida and his trainer commented after that he has turned the corner. He was a physically imposing Select Sale yearling

20 Dec 2012 9:14 AM
Rusty Weisner

By the way, since Keelerman's shown himself for a long time here to be a good handicapper and picker, and since he follows the rules of the site Pete mentions above, I thought I'd mention that he has his own site.  You can google him.

20 Dec 2012 9:31 AM
tcc

Don't let Derby Fever get you in December. El Kabong 19 Dec 2012 2:09 PM.

Sometimes it can happen, as I was able to find Smarty Jones and Big Brown in December before their Kentucky Derby wins.  

20 Dec 2012 9:36 AM
Rusty Weisner

Coldfacts,

Thanks for the detailed response.  I really enjoy your comments at this early stage of the trail, when pedigree is the big subject of discussion.  Sorry to make you relive a losing pick, though, even if it's one you shouldn't regret.  

20 Dec 2012 9:42 AM
Pete Denk

ColdFActs-

I agree that Dewey Square was ridden too conservatively early in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill. Nice moving horse. He will be on my initial top 20.

20 Dec 2012 9:54 AM
-Keelerman

Rusty Weisner;

Sorry I didn't reply to you sooner than this -- I had written a rather lengthy reply, but accidently erased it . . .

Regarding Dewey Square, I was very impressed by his effort in the Kentucky Jockey Club. After being hung wide on both turns, he appeared to be on his way to a distant defeat at the top of the stretch, but seemed to find another gear when challenged by Tesseron and finished very well in the final eighth of a mile, winning his personal duel with Tesseron and closing 2 1/2 lengths on the winner. Coming off of two very easy victories, I was pleased to see him dig deep when it mattered and give it his all. And as Coldfacts mentioned above, he is training very well at Gulfstream.

As for Frac Daddy, he certainly could be in my top dozen -- there are just so many other colts that I like just as well or better! I'm sure he'll work his way on to my list before too long, as I continuously shift things around and around . . . :)

-Keelerman

20 Dec 2012 10:02 AM
-Keelerman

Pete -- when will you be posting your initial top twenty? I look forward to hearing your thoughts!

20 Dec 2012 1:44 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Pete -

Any thoughts on your post of Dec 14 - 2:07pm,  in which you 'crow' about a successful, yet unposted, 3rd leg of a Pick 4.  While I have no doubt that the ticket was legit - it does seem to fall outside the 'rules'.

Rusty -

I'm a bit disappointed that you did not provide any support for your opinion about the BC Sprint.  We do have an modest opinion about the race,  but posting it here would likely be consider tautological in nature.

Chief Picawinna -

Details to obtain free Graded Reports and Flow figures have been made available on this thread, twice.  A sign up form may be found at the bottom of the home page.

The important thing to note is our large subscriber base that has been with us for two years or more.  There is a reason these players and a growing number like them spend between $600-$720/yr.

Racing Flow subscribers are intelligent, pace and bias driven handicappers with the requisite understanding of the difference between long term productivity and short term results.

While we have subscribers spread out over 18 states and Canada, it is no coincidence that the market in which we've had the longest and most regular exposure, upstate NY via Capital OTB, has produced the most users.  

Best of racing luck to all.

20 Dec 2012 2:19 PM
JayJay

I tried posting my picks last night but it's either I clicked refresh before the submit button or it went to the internet blackhole :)

Keelerman : Nice list, going to keep an eye out of some of your not so well known picks.   My derby watch list keeps growing, lots of good prospects out there that have yet to be seen.  Here's my first stab on a derby dozen.  Of course, this is subject to change.  I'm one of those that waits until I see the horses run after turning 3.  I liked the way these horses ran their races and that's how I ranked them.  I can't say they'll all be there on derby day but these are the horses I'll be watching closely.

Overanalyze : Horse looks to still learning how to race, although he could be a monster in the making and was just toying with Normandy in the Remsen after putting away Delhomme.

Shanghai Bobby : Was really impressed with his BCJ run, mainly due to the change of not using lasix for the first time and still managed to grind out a win.  Let's see how he does in the major preps.  I don't know if the TP curse is on him.

Violence : His freight train run was totally impressive.  He was my 2nd pick in the Cashcall, behind Den's Legacy but his run just blew me away.

Pure Fun (f) : I think at this time, this filly is at the same level as the top boys this year.  I hope they go to the Oaks instead of the derby though.  She seems special and would not want to see her ruined for the glory of the derby.

Bern Identity  : I liked his Delta race a lot, his jockey put him in a tough position and had to make him work hard swinging outside (maybe 4 or 5 wide).  That's the kind of run I like to see in the Derby.

Tesseron : I'm not sure if they'll travel with him but is my pick over River Seven in a synthetic major prep.

Mylute (Needs a jockey change) : I think he moved way too early in the Delta and didn't really have that much left in the stretch.  I hope they put Jose Lezcano on him.  I'm looking forward to seeing him run in the major preps.  Anyone want to bet he ends up with Baffert come derby time ?

Normandy Invasion : I'm still not sure how he lost to Overanalyze with his sustained run in the Remsen.  He looked really good gobbling up grounds.

Uncaptured : Have to draw a line in his Grey race in Woodbine.  I don't think he liked the surface.  I'll see how he does in his next race.

Palace Malice : I like the fact that he's got one race as a 2 yr old, and working on his comeback slowly.  I'd like to see him in a minor stakes for his next race.

Absolute Beauty (f)  : Nice maiden win, like the breeding.

Value Trap : Another nice maiden win and breeding.  I don't if he's got the distance in him but I wouldn't be surprised if he wins a prep race next year.

20 Dec 2012 2:20 PM
Pete Denk

PlodBoy-

Considering the above column that talked about Lady Banks (and the previous column touting her before her debut), I was clearly on the record with my selection.

I posted who I had in the last leg of the P4 (before the race), as a matter of interest and to show the mechanics of how I pressed an opinion on an even money shot. The p4 play was a single on Lady Banks and to cover all the logical contenders in the other legs.

I got lucky that some of the longer priced horses on my ticket popped in the "spread" legs.

20 Dec 2012 3:04 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Plod Boy Phil since you know the methodology best,I am patient, and can wait until you get a play that in your mind is a standout, at a good price and post it before the race on this blog.IMO that will provide you with the most credibility on this blog,then any after the fact scores.I myself rarely post any picks unless I think they are my best ideas.

20 Dec 2012 6:03 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Chief Pica -

You are missed the point - what a surprise.

I am not looking for credibility here or anywhere else - Racing Flow already has it.

When I do post my next horse here,  it will be minutes before the race,  especially if it is an upgrade that is part of the subscribers' Graded Report.

20 Dec 2012 6:58 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Plod Boy Phil good luck with your business and your pics,if I missed the point then we dont think alike so I guess I will keep playing the way I do.

20 Dec 2012 9:10 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Chief Pic-

I'll leave with the following point to consider.

We're all familiar with a popular definition of insanity.  It goes something along the lines of 'repeating the same actions over and over with the expectation of a getting a different result'.

This description fits the losing horseplayer to a T.  

Each year,  the same methods,  the same routine,  and the same flawed thinking will lead to the exact same result,  yet most will persevere, or as you put it, 'keep playing the way I do'.

Thanks for the good wishes.

Best of racing luck to you in 2013. I hope your methods leave you inspired, invigorated and within easy striking distance of a year in the black at any moment.

20 Dec 2012 11:08 PM

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