Pete,

I can understand your long, jumbled list in what is so far an uninspiring crop. With the introduction of the new points system to qualify for the Kentucky Derby we can expect a lot of unexpected results leading up to the first Saturday in May.  2013 could very well be one of those rare years when the Derby winner did not race as a 2YO.

My watch list is quite short: 1) Overanalyzed ...the most impressive Derby aspirant so far IMO.  2)Darwin ...seen enough to book an early ticket on this fellow's bandwagon. 3)Violence ...the current buzz horse and understandably so. I really like his pedigree and propensity to win but am more impressed with the potential of his aforementioned stablemates. 4)Shakin It Up ...will not be under the radar after his next start. His closing kick has that classic knockout punch. 5)Flashback ...already looks likely to become California's Derby trail top dog. 6)Ore Pass ...unknown quantity now but bears serious watching as a "Bodemeister type" son of deceased champion War Pass.

7) Noble Tune ...classy colt with dirt pedigree but being a son of "brittle-leg-producing" Unbridled Song, one has to wonder if he'll last for longer than two more starts if campaigned on dirt.

Other high profile colts like Uncaptured and Shanghai Bobby do not have Derby-winning pedigree in my view.

My advice, for what its worth, to those who are once again becoming enarmoured with the sons of AP Indy: look elswhere for the Derby winner. Those AP Indys are mostly good for the Summer and Saratoga races.

Pete, thanks for your list.  

My list is smaller, and you have them all covered except for He's Had Enough.  

I hope Bobby stays healthy and goes to the starting gate.  He's a definite pay against in my book and will ensure good odds elsewhere.  

Here's my top 2yo like right now: Avie's Quality.

Elusive Quality X Fly For Avie, by Lord Avie. Not sure if he'll be pointed to the Queen'splate or the Derby, but hope it's the Derby. What I like: won at 8.5f in a decent time with a good final fraction. Four starts over 1 mile, all itm. Would like to see him close-stalking as he did in his maiden win. Distance breeding. Won over winners in a big field in the Display. Has trained on dirt. Hope he comes south.

No War Academy?

I like Tulira Castle's speed over stamina pedigree.  I'm not the biggest fan of Curlin, but I do like Palace Malice's breeding though turf might be his thing in the future.  Long River is beautifully bred and an AP Indy is going to win eventually.  And I do like Avie's Quality.  I'm not completely sold on Elusive Quality as a true Classic sire, but Lord Avie does help.  I wish I could see Noble Tune dirt, but I think that turf will be better for him physically and would rather see him on that surface for a couple of years so his skeleton matures.

Pete,

A horse left off that is very impressive and two for two is Vyjack. Headed to the Jerome. I believe DARWIN is out of training and at farm.

DerbyDream-

I liked Vykack's races a lot. Think I left him off due to the pedigree (?).

Rusty-

War Academy looked very good, but I left him off because he only has one start and when I reviewed the day's charts, his race looked slow.

Pete

Thanks for your interesting observations. Try to ignore Ranagulzion, he's still upset over his friend Shandler thankfully ending his career at Bloodhorse. lol

Mary

Haven't seen you around, thought your computer might be broken.

Ranagulzion

“I can understand your long, jumbled list in what is so far an uninspiring crop.”

Long yes jumble no. Uninspiring ? I think the 2YO class of 2012 is balanced and loaded with ability. There appears to be more stamina in the pedigrees and I am looking forwards to the 3YO preps as they should provide value for money. I am certainly inspired when a field does not contain a 1-5 cannot lose type. You no doubt considered the Curlin, Street Sense Hard Spun RTR group inspiring. Which of those horses broke two seconds for 10F? Monarchos remains the last to do so in the great race. With all the advancement made in equine medication, nutrition and training the average time for the Derby is still 2:01 and a fraction. I enjoy each new class as the evaluation and handicapping challenges remain the same.

“Overanalyze…the most impressive Derby aspirant so far IMO.”  

Won 5F Debut in 57.48; could only manage 4th in the Gll Hopeful;  won the Belmont Futurity in 1:11.46; soundly beaten in the Iroquois by Uncaptured; barely won the Remsen over Normandy Invasion who closed from another zip code.

If the above resume is reflective of the most impressive Derby aspirant, the threshold for impressiveness is very low. Your statement is either over the top or based on the consumption of the Pletcher’s Kool Aid. Your retraction is eagerly awaited.

“Violence ...the current buzz horse and understandably so”

He has a Gl & Gll victory in good times. Nice colt but not a buzz horse. He will not be in contention for the eclipse for Champion 2YO male. He has not blown away any of the runner ups.  If the blinker had been removed from Fury Kapcori  the outcome would have been different.

Shakin It Up ...will not be under the radar after his next start. His closing kick has that classic knockout punch.”

The leaders in his debut race recorded splits of 21.56, 44.25, and 56.55. It is overwhelming clear that the race fell apart and what appeared to be a ferocious closing kick is Shakin It Up merely passing two colts that essentially canceled themselves in a speed duel.

“Flashback ...already looks likely to become California's Derby trail top dog.”

A full brother to talented G1W Zazu! Based on historic data he will prove to be moderate at best. The mare has already produced her big horse from the particular mating.

“‘Ore Pass ...unknown quantity now but bears serious watching as a "Bodemeister type”

Impressive in debut victory. However, his stride pattern does not suggest he will be effective at the longer distances. You never know!

“Noble Tune ...classy colt with dirt pedigree but being a son of "brittle-leg-producing" Unbridled Song”

A well-bred colt that should remain on turf for his safety. Has the pedigree for dirt but one has to wonder why he has been restricted to the turf. Probably his better surface!

"Other high profile colts like Uncaptured and Shanghai Bobby do not have Derby-winning pedigree in my view"

Uncaptured: His sire was runner in the Derby. Dam sire Arch won at 9.5F and sired BCC winner Blame. Second dam was sired by Bold Ruckus  a son of Boldnesian  whose son Bold Reasoning gave us Seattle Slew. Third dam was sired by a son of Round Table. He has the pedigree to get the Derby distance but I will agree based on his KJC Stakes performance 10F will be challenging. He has class and the can be the equalizer.

Shanghai Bobby: I suspect your negative assessment of this colt’s 10F potential is based on his dam side as his sire was second in the Dubai World Cup and won many route races. Let me take this opportunity to remind you that Smarty Jones’s  dam was sire by  Breeder Cup Sprint champion Smile. Orientate is a grandson of Blushing Groom. The sire of Animal Kingdom Leroidsanimaux is also a grandson of Blushing Groom. Shanghai Bobby’s second dam was sire by Carson City who was dam sire to the ill-fated Barbaro and third place finisher in the 2012 Clarke Burbon Courage. His ability to stay 10F is not an issue but his trainer is.

“My advice, for what it’s worth, to those who are once again becoming enamored with the sons of AP Indy: look elsewhere for the Derby winner”

Ice Box and Nerho were Derby runner ups. Ice Box would have been the first Derby winner to the recently decease Pulpit if not for misfortune. Let me caution you again about your extreme position on this issue. Pete’s list contains the following colts that you have banished to Saratoga and the Mid-Summer Derby - Bold Dance, Dewey Square, Long River, Power Broker and Super Ninety Nine. These are very nice colts that are all capable of winning the great race. There is nothing audacious about hope!

No mention of Fury Kapcori yet, so I will throw him in.  FK seems to be a gritty horse and I think with just a little more improvement, he will be able to run with any of these.

You're wrong on the Curlins not showing speed. Comparing figures his babies are as competitive as any of the freshman sires generally. And overall he has more MSW winners than any other freshman sire. So they certainly are showing up with some class.

Coldfacts, cherry-picking facts is not the best way to back up arguments. For instance - Smile did indeed win the Breeders' Cup Sprint, but like many such winners in his day, he was capable of much more than 6f wins. He won the 8.5f Florida Stallion stakes race at 2. At 3 he won the 9f G1 Arlington Classic, then placed third in the 10f G1 American Derby. And at 4, he won 2 stakes races at 8f+. He didn't quite stay 10f, so his only option on BC day back then was the Sprint.

Seeing all those Tapits and Pulpits and Dixie Unions on Pete's list gives me major misgivings. These are miler sources at best who need plenty of back-up on the female side that I'm not sure many of them have. Yeah, some will win preps, but the Derby will likly be beyond their comfort zone. I will be looking elsewhere.

P.S. to all: The Remsen at 9f has proven to be a lousy indicator of Derby prowess of late. Only two recent Remsen winners have gone on to Derby glory, Go for Gin (on CD mud) and Thunder Gulch ('93 and '94), both well-bred for the distance. '05 winner Bluegrass Cat clunked up into a distant second behind Big Brown, and in '02 third Empire Maker would go on to be a close second in the Derby. Other than these, one could have safely ignored the Remsen runners in the Derby for several decades.

Pedigree Ann,

I am aware of Smile's race record. As a result I agree that he was more than just a sprinter. I mention his BC Sprint victory because my pal Ranagulzion is basing his conclusion on SB  ability to stay 10F based on BC Sprint winner Orientate. I do not concede my approach cherry picking.

Pete,

Your list certainly contains most of the prominent 3YO colts.  I see no filly made the cut and only four colts from the most successful sire line in Triple Crown history made the list. There are some notable exclusion as well.

Gulfport:  (Unbridled Song-Dream Supreme) A very talented colt who is blessed with brilliant speed. Won his last two races at CD and is a son of the brilliant Dream Supreme. A member of the million dollar broodmares club is due for a Derby winner.

Goldencents: ( Into Mischief – Golden Works) Second to Shanghai Booby in the Gl Champagne after only a 5 1/2F maiden victory. He finished ahead of Fortify who subsequently finished 4th in the BCJ. Impress winner of the Delta Jackpot.

Fear The Kitten: (Kittens Joy – Dyna Rhythm) The Ramsey bred colt was cheekily placed in a $40K Maiden Claim  with what appeared to be an attempt to improve their chances to being champion owners  at the Keeneland meet. He was claimed and 11 day later placed on dirt at CD and won at 11-1. He was then entered in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes where closed from last to be 5th beaten by 4L.  Three horses on your list finished ahead of him. He will run forever as his dam was sired by the stamina power Dynaforma. Revisit the KJC and for focus on post #3.

Smooth Bert: (Smooth Jazz  - Little Bertie) A May foal that has already recorded two victories at a mile and who is via an underutilized well-bred stallion and a well-bred lightly raced mare. He defeated the useful Notacatbutalla in his last effort. His sire Smooth Jazz bred only 14 mares in 2009. Smooth Jazz was a very fast colt with 1:20 speed for 7F. However he will probably be remembered for being the sire of Smooth Air who finished second to 3YO sensation Big Brown in the FL Derby.  Smooth Air finished 3rd in the PA Derby and was a respectable 7th in the Breeders’ Cup Classic won by Ravens Pass. His 4YO career featured a victory in the Gulfstream Park Handicap, second place finishes in the Met & Salvator Miles and a 6th place finish in the Whitney. He retired with earnings of $1.1M. Smooth Bert is a very nice colt.

Orb: (Malibu Moon – Lady Liberty). To properly understand how good this colt will be, revisit his debut race (8/17/2012 won Violence. He walked out of the gates and closed from two different zip codes for third. Titletown Five was second in that race. If Orb had left the gates in good order I am confident he would have won. He will be a better colt than Violence in time.

Fury Kapcori:  (Tiznow – Gin Running) A colt sired by Tiznow out of a Go For Gin mare should not be able lead from gate to wire to win a 5 1/2F race in 1:05.42. This colt is bred for stamina and has a lot of speed. This physically imposing colt is going to be a force on the Derby tail. I am praying his trainer will remove the blinkers. His cursing speed for a big horse will prove to be devastating when he gets stronger.

Transparent: (Bernardini- Habiboo). Most will laugh at my interest in this colt as he is unimpressive to date. However, he has a very fluent action and I think when he figures out what is required he will reward by interest handsomely.  Unbridleds Song is proving himself to be a very good broodmare sire and Bernardini needs no introduction. This is one to be follow despite is poor showing to date.

I'm disinclined to trust the opinion of a paid writer for a major website who doesn't check his facts, or at least review what he's written and run a spell check. No excuse for sloppy writing.

Fortify (c by Distortd Humor--Kotuku, by A.P. Indy) is well-bred for the Derby distance and has an excellent 2yo foundation (2nd in G2 7f Hopeful, 3rd in G1 8f Champagne, and 4th in 8.5f G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile). He should improve with distance..." making a case that the better the company and longer the distance the worse Fortify finishes, then stating that he should improve with distance?  What's wrong with that picture?

Noble Tune (c by Unbridled's Song--Serena's Cat, by Unbridled's Song) Serena's Cat is by Storm Cat.  

All three of his career starts have come on turf.... Pedigree and smooth action bode well for him to try new surfaces. His dam's only wins were turf sprints. She placed once on dirt in a maiden race., but she was kept to the lawn thereafter. Her half sibling Vocalized was a Gr.III sprinter in Ireland. True, the pedigree indicates that Noble Tune could have ability over other surfaces. Maybe Chad Brown will experiment with the dirt, but being noted mainly as a "turf trainer" he may not mess with what isn't broken.  Too many good horses have been messed up trying to make them something they are not.

Normandy Invasion (c by Tapit--Boston Lady, by Boton Harbor) Boston Harbor.  Pedigree doesn't scream 10F.  Remsen was slower this year than the last two years. Not an impressive race. As Pedigree Ann stated, the Remsen has lacked Classic quality for a while.

I suspect 90% of these colts will be distant memories by March. Few of them have the pedigree or have shown enough talent to become classic horses.

Dan Kelliher-

Thanks for the comment. Just for clarification, I didn't say the Curlins aren't showing speed. I said some people (and perhaps the commercial market) are questioning his progeny's speed based on the early returns.

Here is a previous blog I wrote on Curlin:

cs.bloodhorse.com/.../new-sire-analysis-curlin.aspx

Laura R -

We all learned to read & write in the 2nd grade and most of us went on to do better things like picking winners.

Pedigree Ann-

Totally agree with you about the sires on my list.

I thought the same thing-- "Many of these are not classic Derby sires."

But these are the best 20 2yos I came up with for now. I look forward to delving deeper into these pedigrees as it becomes more clear who might make the starting gate in Louisville.

Can a Tapit get 10f? I think Zazu could have. This might be the year we find out if a Tapit colt can do it.

Mary Z-

The 12/1 run at WO by Avie's Quality was pretty nice. Thanks for pointing him out.

Let's see how he handles dirt and better class opponents.

Tapit can sire a horse to get 10F... Careless Jewel romped in the 10F G1 Alabama by 10+ lengths

Good call by The Keymaster on the Tapit filly Careless Jewel winning the 10f Alabama.

Gainesway (the stud farm that stands Tapit) thanks you.

Good starting list.  With the new point system any discussion on horses who will actually be in the starting gate is pointless until March this year.  But that takes the fun out of the the whole process.  A few horses that I think have the pedigree and running style.  Code West, Dynamic Sky, General Election, Parnelli, Procurement, Stay in Dixie.

Clearly a very knowledgeable group of pedigree hounds and historians - good reading,  this.

My question would be how many of the bloggers that have posted, or will post, a comment will actually be involved in real Derby 2013 future book pools available only in Las Vegas ?

Laura R ,

I might not be a paid writer for a major website but I am the most egregious with spelling and grammatical errors. Sadly, I was not a very good English student and despite my valiant effort to improve my writing skills I remain a miserable failure. My editing skills are even worse than my writing skills. I remain optimist that I will someday get the writing of this complex language right.  Some with limitation can be excused and I am a primary candidate.

Allatime-

I hear you on Dynamic Sky. He makes sense and was one of my last cuts. I just decided not to take any more horses out of that puzzlingly slow BC Juvenile...

Another of my last cuts was Brown Almighty. I will be watching to see how he runs on dirt.

I was on Code West early, but so far not convinced he is top class.

Besides Careless Jewel, Tapit sired 2 other winners at 10F, Hawthorne Gold Cup hero Headache and Japanese horse Testa Matta.

Keymaster,

I learned to spell and write in first grade. Learning to pick winners was left for second grade. Perhaps your public school didn't do you any favors. :-)

Overanalyze

Shanghai Bobby

Violence

Pure Fun (f)

Bern Identity

Tesseron

Mylute

Normandy Invasion

Uncaptured

Hawaakom

Palace Malice

Absolute Beauty (f)

Made my first change (from when I posted my dozen in the previous blog).  Added Hawaakom (Jazil - Nafisah (IRE) by Lahib) from watching his maiden win.  He got a nice break, was 4th in the backstretch on the rail, Luis Goncalves started pulling back to work his way outside.  Came running near the top of the stretch about 5 or 6 wide and gobbled up ground at 36-1.   You can watch the replay of the race - Fairgrounds, 12/15 - Race 9.  He's the number 5 horse.  He'll be my dark horse, that was a maiden win so he needs to score points before I put him on top.  Hopefully he makes it.

I still have a lot on my maiden watch, some that haven't even run yet.  Ground Transport running at FG - R11 tomorrow.  Other maidens I'm waiting on are Big Sam, Inmyfathersimage, Surfspun, Pass The Hat, Champion Boy, Midnight Memories, Harponit, Smart Search, Fluent (g).  Fluent, Surfspun, Pass The Hat, Big Sam all had a workout yesterday so hopefully I'll see them run soon.

Kentucky Derby points leader board :

www.kentuckyderby.com/horses

Mike Relva, my friend,

Great to see that you still attend these blogs.  You're right that I miss Jason Shandler's contribution to Bloodhorse.com and I can understand why you were happy to see him go.  However you should've gotten over the result of the 2010 Breeder's Cup Classic by now ...if not I don't BLAME you (LOL).  How is your buddy Draynay doin'?  Fortunately or unfortunately there are no exciting 2YOs this year to lure the likes of him back to these blogs.  Perhaps next season we'll see a special one breakout like a bolt from the blue and remain sound all season to challenge the older horses, come Breeder's Cup time.

Overanalyze is your Derby winner.  Jason Shandler was like a brother to me.

Ha, that's funny Laura.  I guess I was supposed to be offended by your assumption that I went to public school.

Even if I did go to public school, your comment would not have offended me because basing a person's intelligence off which school their parents could afford to send them to is awfully shallow.  A comment like that would only come from the mouth of someone that was an overprivileged kid who still has their head stuck up where the sun doesn't (sorry, does not) shine.

I attended private school up until college, then I wised up and went to a public university.  Anyway, we had a cheer at my high school when the public school was beating us in sports... "That's alright, that's okay, you will be working for us someday!"  However, I grew out of that long ago.  I see you still resort to juvenile and unintelligent insults.

I don't really remember nor do I care what I was doing in the 1st or 2nd grade.  As I said before, most of us have gone onto better things than correcting other people's grammar.  May I suggest you do the same?  

Balance the Books all the way.

Coldfacts,

I see you've gotten your groove back. I'll restrain my response until the Derby preps get going next season. Only, I'm prepared to stick my neck out once again about the AP Indys and the sons of Bernardini, not winning the Derby.  I'm surprised that you think Shanghai Bobby, based upon pedigree, has a realistic shot for the Kentucky Derby.  You had a miserable 'Derby Trail" season last year so be cautious. Done talking!(LOL).

Regarding those posters that throw arbitrary insults around which have no bearing on the subject of the blog, you should think abuot ignoring, my friend.

For what little it's worth,  Laura did have one valid point and correction that was not acknowledged.  Serena's Cat was indeed sired by Storm Cat,  not Unbridled's Song,  as indicated in Pete's review of Noble Tune.

It's an odd, and imo, a meaningless one, considering it was likely a 'cut n paste' miscue.

Has anyone actually made Future Book wagers in Vegas already on any of the above horses ?

Pedigree Ann,

You're correct that mostly, the winners of the Remsen have flattered to deceive in recent years.  However you did mention exceptions and thats enough to support my fancy of Overanalyzed to be such on the Derby trail next year.  

Following upon Union Rags' Belmont Stakes success at 12 furlongs this year, I expect that Overanalyze will once and for all lay the stamina limitations stigma of Dixie Union offspring to rest. This colt has plenty of stamina on his dam side and showed multiple dimensions (pressing the pace, closing furiously and eyeballing while repelling a serious come-from-behind challenger) in his three victories from five starts.

Ted from LA,

You're a jolly good fellow.  I'm not calling Overanalyzed my Derby winner yet but he's the top classic colt of this crop so far but not overwhelmingly so, I'll admit.      

Ranagulzion : I see that you also like Overanalyze, if he does win the Derby, I don't think it'll be because of Dixie Union.  I picked him based on his remsen race, best race of the year for 2 yr olds for me personally.  I liked his Remsen win not because of who he beat, but how he won the race.  I thought he showed maturity in that race, I don't remember ever seeing a 2 yr old do what he did in that race.  The only thing I don't like about him is that he's trained by Todd Pletcher.  I knew he's a Dixie Union but I'm actually looking at his Unaccounted For side that will get him the 10F distance (3 generations back, not 5) and not his Dixie Union side.

Plod Boy Phil : Playing the Future on these horses is dumb IMO since you have no idea whether the horse will even make it to the prep races let alone the Derby.  Injuries, the new points system, there's just a lot of things that can happen and to put money on any horse on a Future bet is too much risk.  Remember Algorithm ?  I say save it and bet it all on the first saturday of May.

Keymaster,

No offense was intended towards anyone. I was making light of your comment regarding school and racing picks. I didn't mention a word about spelling or grammar in my original post, rather, to check facts regarding the pedigrees.

It is easy for posters to become offended when one takes into account only the written word.

I'm sorry you felt insult where none was intended.

Jay Jay,

Hopefully after the triple crown dust has settled next season you will have been humbled enough to admit that Dixie Union, albeit posthumously, is a genuine Classic winner-producing sire.  He has enhanced the family of the mares that he has covered and died as a fairly young stallion.

tp race 3 #3 its ruby

boom baby! 6 to 1 #2 that was   its ruby!!!!!

Ranagulzion : After the triple crown dust settled ?  Seems like you're already proclaiming Overanalyze the triple crown winner ?  or at the very least the Derby winner ?   I thought by now, you would've learned the lesson not to make such predictions.  It was just last May, last triple crown where you made the same prediction with Union Rags...and we all know what happened then.

I like this horse but I'm not going to predict he'll win the Derby, he still has to make the gate.  And again, I repeat, if he wins, I would give Unaccounted For the credit for him getting the distance rather than Dixie Union.  DU will give him the speed to stay close but his stamina I believe will be from Unaccounted For.   We dont' need to argue about it because it's a moot point since there's no way to prove it :)  For someone who loves and "knowledgeable" about pedigrees, I don't know how you think Dixie Union has the stamina, he won at 9Fs once, didn't even run 10F, he's a mile horse at best.   Unaccounted For was proven at 9F and ran 2nd at 10F .... I don't get it.

still cant understand how i got 6 to 1 on that last horse....how bout haw race 9...wp #9 to get a peice at least....family six

haw race 9 3rd at 6 to 1...tp race 4..5..or 6 look like good priced horses to upset...go w #6

Great odds at Gulfstream race #9 tomorrow.  I like the #10 at 6-1 ML.  

Laura R

   I interpreted your post as humor if that means anything. Didn't the nuns in second grade hit your hands with a ruler for betting on horses?

wow 65 to 1 wins at tp...beat the 4...longshot track....tp race 6 look out for the #1 to wake up big...musicinthe house

turway race 6 #1 wins easy after breaking slow and rushing....cha-ching!.....................pro

Pete,

      Yrou tpo twnety is godo fodo fro thuoght. Thsi yaer's ponit sytsem hsa me bewlidred. Cna't sya if teh satrtagye will be to foergo teh tow yaer odl racses and jsut piont to teh improtnat three odl racses. Olny tiem will tlel.

lets keep it up with the 7th at turfway.. #4wp.....to beat the even money 8 horse......look out for the #1 at 10 to 1

The only filly I would put in the mix is Flashy Gray. Looking forward to a future bet on her.

The only filly I would put in the mix is Flashy Gray. Looking forward to a future bet on her.

wow another bomb at tp 50 dollar winner.....ded race 5 #8

lost at ded......race 8 tp....wide wide open....#3 candy melody

boom baby!!! pro! 4 to 1 nice.....wire job......next.......

Phil, thank u for pointing out the error on Serena's Cat's pedigree. She is indeed by Storm Cat. (corrected)

Kenek-

I agree Balance the Books is a nice horse.

I wonder when/if he'll try dirt?

HERES AN INTERESTING HORSE....anyone see the replay of nick zito first out winner oct 18 race 6...DECLANS warrior...check out the monster move, and the stride of this horse....why is this horse interesting? class......anyone......anyone........bueller?.......thats right! nick zito never has 2 yr old cranked.....time was pretty good......just look for this horse to improve.............but.....he did show one very bad sign......can anyone see it?

keep it rolling...race 9 turfway.....when to bet a hurt horse....#7 mad jazz running for 5000 today..was 16000 horse 6 months ago...went bad in aug.....gave 3 months off, ran at 8000 last time and didnt get close to lead, and ran bad...but that race didnt take anything out of him...today he fires.....or is meat!

declans warrior at bel

I like that race from Declan's Warrior KY Vet. Looked good. U think he's a 10f horse?

Zito also has the Birdstone gelding Mountain Eagle, whom I mentioned last week.

jazz got 3rd....picked reverse tri...not good

Pete,

Congratulations, you have shaken the rafters and lured a few good names to the table.

Pedigree Ann,

as always, I'm glad to see you are  alive and posting with whip in one hand and logic in the other. Keep the feet of this hoard to the fire.

This new qualifying method for the derby will impact so much of what we have seen and what we will see. I think everyone realizes that the emphasis is to have the best 3 year olds and not the best 2 and 3 year olds. We have witnessed the best of what deeper barns have shown us, but I believe that everyone sees the points are slated to the races yet to come and that will have an influence on timing especially for the smaller barns. My guess is the fields will be bigger in February, March and April.  Look for talent coming out of the woodshed then and perhaps a horse who did not win or race as a two year old winning the derby. This system is a radical change. No more one trick ponies winning a valuable purse. You will need more races (points) under your belt and if you didn't get them at two you will have to campaign like a politician in November next year to get your points at 3. Bigger fields for Derby races will produce different results. Look for more shipping to get those points and that will be good for us capers trying to size up talent running East, West, MidWest. I like the new system, it's not perfect, but it will impact the fields and participation. That is a good thing. A very different year ahead for all of us. I'd love to hear from the trainers how it is impacting their decisions.

turfway race 10...the 6 horse is even money..broke slow and flew home to win only start....might win, but im guessing, because he has front wraps plus the bad break...means trouble....bet against....that makes it either 1 or 2 horse... im thinking the 2 horse STORMY EXCHANGE is bet of the day.......go large!!

Declan may not be a derby horse....but zito never does have his 2 yr olds ready for best.....nobdy is a derby horse right now....i know a good horse when i see one......but this horse changed leads too early on the turn......dont like that.....we'll see if he does it again....

yes pete... mountain has the usual prep race, then improvement that you see with zito.....which makes declan look alot like dialed in...he improved 2 seconds after his 1st out.....

turway #1 nails the #2......exacta...but more the other way........oh well....good picking....somethimes you lose

tp race 11 looks like the 10 horse  GINGER VALENTINE.......good day no matter what happens

correction race 11 tp  scr #10.......so we go #7 sister linda

whoa boys........there is a big mistake.......no one knows about Avies Quality!  this horse can run....ill give you a few more...dewey squre/ normandy invasion/violence/palace malice/

Jay Jay,

Please read over my posts ...I have not anointed Overanalyze a triple crown winner or even picked him as my Derby horse. I've only put him atop my watch list and stated why I rate him as the best of this, so far, uninspiring crop.

Back to our discussion on Dixie Union, I'm saying that this sire produces speedsters as well as routers inspite of never winning further than 9 furlongs (his Hakell victory). He did finish fourth in the 2000 Travers Stakes (10 furlongs) won by Unshaded over Alber the Great.  His pedigree is blessed with both speed and stamina and he carries multiple inbreeding to the great class & stamina influence Hyperion. That should not be difficult to grasp JayJay because there are other examples of stallions whose offspring generally display more stamina than their sire, most notably Mr Prspector which was an out and out sprinter.

Dixie Union will have a fair representation among this crop of juvenles which has already featured Overanalyzed and Delholme.  Chances are, he could throw another classic winner following on the heels of Union Rags and the broodmare once again will not be entitled to all the credit. Thats all I'm saying.    

Ranagulzion : Gotcha.  I was gonna try and re-read your previous posts but it's lost from all of KY Vet's posts lol.  I think I got what you're saying though, I read your initial post as a prediction for Overanalyze since we were talking about him.  I've got no problems with DU producing a TC winner,  in fact, I hope you're right.  I hope DU produces another Classic winner but one that would win based on abilities, not because the race falls apart, the way UR won the Belmont.   But really, att this point, I don't care what pedigree, as long as I see a TC winner in my lifetime lol.  That would just be really awesome.

Any horse, even speedballs can get 10Fs or 12Fs or even 2M races, the question is whether they can win against top level horses.  Dixie Union came in 4th in the Travers beaten 9 lengths by Unshaded who never won a stakes race after that (but did win 2 allowance races.)

Laura R

Are you serious?

Ranagulzion

You've always written well despite the fact we haven't always agreed.

As for Shandler, yeah I broke open a bottle in celebration of his departure. You see, I don't respect a so called writer that's of the mindset that horses are nothing but machines. Kinda doubt he would care less if a horse broke down crossing a finish line as long as he cashed a ticket. That's something to really hang your hat on, isn't it?

Mike R,

Those of us who love this sport and have to listen to critics who don't understand it accuse all of us unfairly of participating in some form animal abuse must stick together on this issue. I for one do not think Jason has such callus feelings towards Thoroughbreds. But the worst thing we can do is throw one another into the fire and fan the flames of unfounded rhetoric around this issue. Plus, he's not here to defend himself so your remarks amount to nothing more than a cheap shot.  

Laura R,

“I didn't mention a word about spelling or grammar in my original post”

Below is an extract from your initial post:

“I'm disinclined to trust the opinion of a paid writer for a major website who doesn't check his facts, or at least review what he's written and run a spell check. No excuse for sloppy writing.”

One can infer from your suggestion to run a spell check that there were some spelling errors. Your suggestion that the moderator review what he's written, infers that there were likely grammar or editing issues. These two suggestions are distinct from the fact check fact check suggestion. This was my assessment of the above section of your post. If my it was incorrect, kindly accept my apology.

NB: I took no offense to the statemenst in the above extract as I am guilty of the offenses you cited.

JayJay -

With no malice intended, I must point out that the 2012 Belmont Stakes did not 'fall apart' in any way.  The relationship between the fractional splits and final time were well within the normal range for 12 furlongs at Belmont.

The phrase, 'fell apart',  popular with a certain talking head on a racing network,  is thrown about way too often without factual support.  

“ I'm not calling Overanalyzed my Derby winner yet but he's the top classic colt of this crop so far”

The cold facts do not support the above opinion. Shanghai Bobby is unbeaten, has two G1 victories and is heading toward the Eclipse for 2YO champion male. He comprehensively whipped Overanalyzed in the Hopeful. Uncaptured has six victories from seven starts and he destroyed Overanalyzed in the Iroquois.

It is inconceivable that one so knowledgeable can be so steadfast with a baseless conclusion. If you are of the opinion that Overanalyzed will eventually develop into the leading Derby contender, then your post should be more futuristic.

“You had a miserable 'Derby Trail" season last year so be cautious. Done talking!(LOL).”

I started my season with 10-1 Out OF Bounds a colt you thoroughly disparaged in your initial evaluation. The return from OOB provided a bankroll that took me well into the season. Many of my betting interest did not win but some made it to the top three and provided a small surplus or at least placed me in a break even position. It is interesting that you ended you quote with Done Talking. It is no doubt an attempt at ridicule. Let me take this opportunity to enlighten you that the returns made on 9-1 Done Talking superseded those made on the Dialed In/Shackleford 2011 FL Derby exacta. You do recall that Shackleford was 60-1. My learned colleague unlike you I do not focus on established horse but instead focus on the unknowns to identify significant factors that other will miss. Under such a scheme there will always be greater risk. My 2012 season was profitable financially but I will concede I had very little bragging rights. Which do you prefer?

NB: I am on record with Alpha being my pick for the 2012 Derby. Done Talking was just a money colt that I defended. One has got to defend those that provide a ROI.

Plod Boy Phil,

Great response to Jay Jay. He refuses to acknowledge that he was completely wrong about Union Rags' stamina and continues to defame the horse.

While I will not concur that the 2012 Belmont Stakes fell apart thus allowing Union Rags to win, it should be noted the final time of 2:30.42 ranks 38th for the last 40 renewals. Only the Belmont’s won by Ruler On Ice and Drosselmeyer were slower in last 40 years. What is disturbing about the last three Belmont’s is the fact that the times were 3-4 seconds slower than what is now the high water mark  for the Stakes i.e., 2:26 and a bit. Affirmed , Point Given, Risen Star, Easy Goer and A P Indy  all record time of 2:26 and a bit during this period.

Can anyone please give me a few tips on betting first time starters?

Sandy -

The silence may be due to nobody really wanting to open Pnadora's Box,  now that it's been put in the room.

'Don't' best summarizes my take,  though I do know thse who isolate on nothing but 1sters,  and do it well.

A personal favorite pattern of mine, back when I had aspirations of being a handicapper, was to look for a series of works in which each training move or moves, was at a longer distance.  For instance:  3f, 4f, 4f, 5f,5f, 6f,  or similar.

Best of racing luck.

Ranagulzion : There's a big difference between defaming and being realistic.  I'm sorry that you can't get over that fact.   UR was not and had he continued to race, would not have been competitive at classic distance races.  His record shows it, in fact, he is exactly like his Dad, Dixie Union.

PBP :  I watched the race, that's plenty factual support for me.  I don't really care about the splits or the final time.  Is that all the factual support you have or do you have more ?  I'm curious.  I know there's a lot of UR fans out there that will disagree and that's fine.  They saw what they wanted to see.

Koufax : Don't.  lol, j/k.  I bet first time starters mostly by pedigree and only those with a 6 or 7 days apart, I don't care if they're 2-1 or 50-1 morning line.

El Kabong

Really? Guess I'm going on the fact he never acknowledged in writing a tribute when a horse passed away, nothing. Many of his mindless opinions are a joke, such as stating Zenyatta's trainer wasn't even in the top hundred. lol Question? How many in the top tier of racing ever took him seriously? He's a disgrace. lmao

JayJay -

Again,  at the fear of being accused of tautology,  splits and final time and the statistically sound relationship between the two are factual.  With no mailce intended or implied,  do you know what 'p' value is in statistical analysis?

Formulating an opinion based merely on watching a race is purely subjective.  There is a reason why eye-witness testimony is the least relaible of all.  Show dozens of people the same event and you will receive varying interpretations of that event,  with many of the variations based on either conscious or subconscious pre-conceived beliefs or ideas.

I certainly wish the race had been Closer favoring,  as the Racing Flow upgrade in the Belmont, Atigun,  may have provided the cherry to our day.

Plod Boy Phil,

Great argument again ...if Jay Jay still doesn't get it there's only one reason ...disingenuity (I'm being gracious).

Coldfacts,

Those Belmont Stakes final times might have been slow but no honest, knowledgeable racing fan would deny that Drosselmyer or Ruler On Ice were genuine stayers, capable of bein competitive in a truly run 10 Furlongs race (Jay Jay's beratement of Union Rags talent). Indeed we all know what Drosselmyer did in the 2011 Breeder's Cup Classic, to my great surprise.

Jay Jay,

Man up and admit that you were totally at sea concerning your judgment of Union Rags' stamina. Its no shame since notable pedigree experts including Alan Porter also bungled on this. You should've listened to me and avoid egg all over your face Bro.

Sandy-

When evaluating first-timers, you can look to:

Trainer patterns

Workout analysis

Pedigree

Auction info

PBP : No, I don't know what 'p' value is in statistical analysis.   But before you tell me what it is (and I'm really interested in what it is), let me just say that watching the race is the most reliable way of handicapping for me and no, that doesn't mean I can pick the winner based on that, no forms or formulas will guarantee me a winner.  I never use the splits or final times as part of my handicapping, because those only apply to the last race.   Horses set track records, I'll use QR as an example, he looked like a monster when he runs at Gulfstream Park, but look at his record, he was never able to duplicate those outside of GP.  When he ran against better horses, he failed.

The 2nd paragraph of your last post applies to the splits and final times.  To me, it's really useless because there are way too many variables that changes from the last race to the horses' next race.  There's just no way I can rely on it to tell me whether a horse will win the race or not.  Things like post position, track condition, jockey, who they're running against etc etc etc.  Trinniberg is a speed freak, if you look at his splits, you'd think no one can run with him but last I checked, he doesn't have a perfect record.  On the flip side, if you look at zenyattas splits, you'd think she should'nt be wining as many races as she did.

I'm looking forward to your response explaining how splits and final time and the statistically sound relationship between them are factual and how you determine your pick based on that.   And this is also without malice, I'm here to read everyone's opinions and to learn.

I wasn't trying to convince everyone that UR is not a Classic distance horse, that was purely my opinion.  I stand by it because of what I've seen from his races.  Of course people will disagree, if everyone agrees to everything I say, I would be a King and last I checked, I'm still only 2nd in line to the throne, KY Vet is hoggin' all the King stuff at the moment.  :)

My point is,  if one is not using the only empirical data available in the race - splits and final time - to formulate an opinion of the race dynamics, then that opinion may be best left unsaid.  To take it one step forward and state, "I don;t care about splits and fianl time",  is at best uneducated.

What other information did you use to decide that the race' fell apart' ?  Did an opinion that Rags could not get 12f in a bus with a handful of tokens have anything to do with it ?

Finally,  I am not a fan of any horse. We upgraded Rags going into the Derby and were neutral on him going into the Belmont.  

koufax,

Since you asked...

1.bet trainers that have a good winning percentage with first time starters.

2.if a race has a prohibitive favorite,odds wise, like 3/5 for example, it probably means the horse is a known good one and you should be careful betting against.

3.look for an active and regular workout pattern, including gate works, this should help have a horse ready.

4. watch for trainer and jockey combinations that say the trainer wants his favorite jockey on this one.

5.look at the horse, with time you will be able to tell those that are in good shape and well cared for, so as to be physically fit and ready to race. If it is a filly race, look for the one that looks the most like a jackass, for she will be sure to run like crazy.

Those are just some things to look at, and with time and effort you will learn about breeding, and form your own opinions about what to look for, and of course always ask your fellow bloggers for their ideas on a horse, you will be amazed at what you learn, seriously. Always remember this is the greatest game in the world, it is you against everyone else, so good luck and most importantly have fun.

"no one"  Thanks, KY.

JayJay -

'P' value is a measure that confirms or denies the existence of ra elationship between inputted variables and a reult. I am not a statistician. The much smarter half or RF is.

I asked once before for you to contact me by e-mail so that I do not clutter the Blog with RF philosophy.

In a nutshell:  

- We analyze tha past to upgrade, downgrade, or provide neutral ratings on horses.  Nothing about today's race are considered when 'grading' a horse.

- We put Figures on races,  not horses.  We are looking for races that fall outside the 'normal range' for Flow and/or Bias.  It is these races that produce horses that tend to be either over-valued or under-valued.

- I (we) do not consider wagers on any horse that is not an upgrade.  I do not fear being beaten by 'faster' neutral horses.

- We never consider final time based speed figures in deciding if a horse should be bet.  The vast majority of people at a track will bet the 'fastest' horse. Give me a slow upgrade anytime.

- I do not attempt to handicap races.  In other words,  I will not pass on an upgraded speed horse in a race full of speed, nor will I pass on an upgraded closer in a race with no pace.  I do not concern myself with class, distance, surface, trainer, jockey, or the other competition, etc.  These are the variables that get handicappers off big price horses.  I

The threory of Regression towards the Mean will get me where I need to go as long as I am patient and consistent.  For the non-ststistical brain,  all events will migrate to the norm over time.  Thus, all things even out in time.  

- Upgrades do not win more often than the norm,  they just pay more when they do win.

The patience of Pete and his bloggers is appreciated.  I will not repeat myself again,  but rather refer future questions to posts already on the record.

Kevin, I like the 3 in GP9. Just doing a small wps. GL to you.

Koufax:  I meant horses that has a workout pattern of 6 to 7 days apart.

Ranagulzion :  How did you prove that UR has stamina ?  Also, I'm not the one that proclaimed and guaranteed a Derby and TC win.   How do you like your eggs ? :)

My play of the day is Ground Transport at FG - Race 11.  I'll go all out on this horse :  $2 WPS lol.   I'll probably single him on my .50 P3 and P4.  Will box him with the 4 and the 8 for my exacta.

re:  GP 9th

1 Bad Debt (12-1):  is there another kind ?

5 Salto (5-1)

I like the betting info and the lively debate.

GP Race 8 :  

Playing the 6 and 4 on top of the 3 and 2.

GP 10th

Kevin has the right horse.

A horse winning the Belmont in this day and age does not prove anything as far as stamina is concerned as no horse in the US is bred to get 12 f on the dirt anymore.  Union Rags is just like most US dirt horses, a 7-9f horse.

sorry mary.....howd i miss that post...................by the way.....you are one of the people on here that knows the game.....

haw 7th #5 peace now wp

haw race 8 #2 scappare

Not today though, KY.  My speed pick came in 9th.

correction  race 9 not 8 #2

I like the 10 horse at Haw R9 - 10 with 2,3,8 exacta and tri.  Juicy price at 6-1 with the bottom 3 fighting for favoritism.

#2 got nailed on wire.....ran good

#2 got nailed on wire.....ran good

Well, my single on Ground Transport didn't pan out.  I had the 4 in the first leg and and had 5, 8, 13 in the last leg.  I shoulda woulda coulda the 2!! I need to stop doing this to myself lol.  Oh well, I thought it was a good run by GT, will continue to watch him.

Back to horsespotting, some from my watch list running next week  :

Surfspun : 12/27 GP - Race 5, 5F (Turf)

Big Sam : 12/27 GP - Race 10, 8F (Turf)

Inmyfathersimage :  12/28 Aqu - Race 2, 1M (Inner Track)

Know More is running on Friday - 6F Allowance race.  Good to see him back.

JayJay -

He looked rank to me,  but did indeed perform well.

Seemed like as good a spot as any to wheel the exacta,  considering the high degree of unknown in the race.  From my view, races of this type (all debuts) fit the 'all or none' profile.  

Is was not a good race for Point #2 in Predicts' Rules of 1sters. I've heard people promote that view for years now and it has just never made much sense to me,  except perhaps at Saratoga.  If there is sound reason to back a horse in a race with a 3/5 shot in it,  then the handicapper should be all the more eager to get involved.

Just my opinion.

I could be wrong.

Eary handicapping for GP tomorrow, pick 6 again looks relatively sublime.  

1,7/2,3,7/2,9,10/5/1,2,5,7/8,14 (if drawn in).

I know Pete, I know.  

Best bet of the day is the #7 in the 9th.  Should be decent odds.  

Mike R,

I respect the opinion of everyone here but I reserve the right to challenge the basis of any claim. For the record, I'm a big fan of Mr. Sheriffs, The Moss' and of course Zenyatta:) but I never let Jason's opinions on this one issue distort the bigger picture of his work or my opinion of his overall contribution to his forum. Let's face it, the pig headed fool was wrong wrong wrong about her. The Bloodhorse staff has writers to fill the needs of the issues you addressed and yes, he was not one of them. But he accomplished plenty with his work by keeping a pulse for the sport alive with varied opinion and passion for the industry. I just don't want us to cut off our nose to spite our face. We are a sport on thin ice. We must have enough solidarity about our shared passion to not join the effort to demonize our own.

I think Jason achieved exactly what he wanted to achieve with his blogs.  He knew how to get people to react and he played people like a fiddle in order to get the blog hot.  Agree with him or disagree with him, and I did both many, many times, he knew exactly what he was doing with it.  And it was a very successful blog.

As others have said, I think we should acknowledge that Pete is doing very well with this blog and congratulate him, even though I don't contribute that often, I do read it and he and the bloggers offer alot of pertinent information.  

Kevin-

Racing Flow has 11 upgrades in the sequence.  The proposed P6 ticket shown above does include any of them - so you have that going for you,  which is nice.

You have included two short priced downgrades in the sequence.

We are 'neutral' on your single in the 7th.

Best of racing luck.

Predict

Your first post did not go unnoticed.  Funny!

KY Vet

WTH!!!

I thought Violence showed a tremendous level of class as has Sh Bobby.  I won't forget Rosie saying Bobby is the most talented horse she's ever been on.  Plus, he's very green & she knows a horse named Mucho Macho Man.  If he figures this stuff out he's a factor.  Union Rags put the Dixie Union issue to rest for me.

Footlick

Enjoyed over the past few years reading your comments. The difference between Shandler and someone that's respected like Haskin is when you're good there's no need in using theater.

Koufax,

Along with all of the other advice, one steadfast rule for me on first timers is they must have works from the gate(predict mentions this too) and preferably one where they still finish in top 5 of works that day. I was given a "hot tip" on first time starter not long  ago. Couldn't lose. Up against other first time starters. His works were blazing and consistent but not one work from the gate. I bet 20 to show on another horse who had good works and a couple good ones from the gate. The 3-5 sure thing blew the start at the gate and the collective moan from his backers could be felt for miles. I got back over 120 for my 20 show bet when the favorite failed to hit the board. My horse ran second. Gate works in my opinion are crucial and since most races for these horses are 5-6 furlongs, you can't blow the start and recover. I would look for some speed in the breeding as well.

Kevin -

Two Racing Flow upgrades that may prove problematic:

R9) 8 King's Over (12-1):  upgrade the last when vs an Extreme Race for Closers.  Note that both of his turf starts were in 'neutral' races - both make him dangerous and both were prior to the addition of Lasix.  

R10) 12 Exclusive Sage (8-1): turned back to a sprint last out off a series of routes - never an easy task and even more difficult given the fact he was behind the wire to wire winner of a modestly Speed favoring Flow.  He was also upgraded for the race two back - a race which contained one of today's two free posted horses on the site.  

We've also downgraded both the 1 in R5 and the 7 in R6 -the latter event contains the day's lone bold upgrade.

Best of racing luck with today's P6.

Whoever first mentioned Avie's Quality: I hope he has the class and soundness to go forward, because I have always loved Lord Avie, member of my "Blue-Collar Stallion Hall of Fame." Solid, winner-producing family (his dam Avie was a gem of a broodmare). And his dam was a G1 winner at 10f, albeit on turf. Sires down the damline - Arctic Tern and Pretense - say stamina, and he's from the classy family descending from Exclusive (1953, by Shut Out). If he's good enough, 10f ought to be no problem for Avie's Quality.

Thanks Mike.  Your's too and have a great holiday.  I really think Jason's objective was controversy and entertainment and he knew how to play it.  It worked for his blog, which arguably was one of the most popular in BH history.  Steve is a whole different entity, and the purpose of his blog is different.  I enjoy reading Steve, I was entertained by Jason.  I also think that horse racing is Steve's life, whereas this was a stopover for Jason.  Not sure they can really be compared.  Jason frustrated me a lot, and so did his blog and many of the people there.  But, I always went back and read the posts.  As I said, it was entertaining.  

Wow Pete, a really tough job but guess someone has to (begin the process of KD path) do it! My KD hopeful horse I am continuing to watch is "FEAR THE KITTEN", loves CD, smart, closes very strongly and dirt of turf bred to run, KJC race was very good and just worked bullet at GS 12/19, may continue to improve and look forward to next race to see how he does and if he dazzles may be on more of our CD radar, my longshot for now.

In light of recent history and the flash-in-the-pan 2YO speed craze, I'd guess there is not one of the above that will leave the gate on the 1st Saturday in May 2013. There's nothing really inspiring; there's nothing to hang a hope or a bet on. Watching this crop is about as interesting as watching grass grow, sorry to say.

HOWEVER, I hope everyone has a happy holiday season, and I wish cheers and safe trips to all.

Well said Footlick. I read Steve's blog as articles where his writing is the meat of the blog. Jason's blog had a totally different focus, the responses were the important aspect of the blog, that is also why his blogs were interesting long after they were initially published, the responses were well worth reading. I think Pete is leaning closer to Jason's interpretation of a blog and I'm learning a great deal about handicapping from nearly everyone who posts.  Good examples of blogs as a genre promote reader response and interaction including disagreement. I did enjoy Jason's blogs and miss them. However, I'm really looking forward to this blog's first whirl at the Triple Crown and anticipate it will become a very active and entertaining blog.

Footlick

Think you nailed it.... regarding the difference. Hope you also enjoy a great holiday.

Only one colt on my list:

BROWN ALMIGHTY

Like is daddy, started on the grass and will transition to dirt. I saw his impressive first start maiden win at Arlington Park at a mile on the lawn. Won a stakes  in his next start. GSP 2nd in third start. 2nd in stakes in his fourth start. Unplaced in the BCJT after being on the lead at the head of the stretch and being slammed and sandwiched by the winner and another horse.

He will be taking the Oaklawn route which has been successful in recent years. He has worked well on the poly at AP and on the dirt in CA and had his first work going nicely on dirt at Oaklawn this week.

He is trained by Tim Ice who won the Belmont with Summer Bird.

I'll take the long odds

Agree totally with Footlick about the previous blog.  He knew how to get it going - not sure if he was getting paid per comment, wouldn't surprise me.  All I know and care about is that he LOVES me and my posts, I AM his nay nay :)

Needler in Virginia : That's what makes it exciting for me, not one colt dominated.   It'll make it much more fun watching different horses mature and get better.  I'm fairly confident the winner of the Derby is still a maiden at this time :)  We've seen enough of the Uncle Mos and the Union Rags hype, it's just nice to start the year not knowing who's the best 3 yr old - I learn things by doing research on the 2 yr olds, and reading people's opinion on their picks, what made them pick the horse, what they like about 'em.  It's cool.

Two horrible jockey rides and I've missed the first 2 legs.  

Val sitting 10 lengths back on a 1:15 pace in the first leg and Nunez running into traffic deep in the lane on War on Limehouse in the 2d.  Had much the best horse at 11-1.  

Will say Phil was right on downgrades to both the 1 in race 5 and 7 in race 6.  

"a race which contained one of today's two free posted horses on the site"

Those who took a minute to check received 'Just say Hey' ($9.80) in the 3rd at FG.

Note two more failed downgrades at GP - each referenced in the earlier post.

FG  :  

7 with 3,4 exacta box.  7 with 3,4,2 with 3,4,2,5 tri.

Haw :

P4 : 2,3 / 3,6 / 5,6 / 9,3,8,4

Trifecta 2,3 with 2,3,7,8 with 2,3,7,8

Thanks Kevin -

We continue to be very successful with downgrades at short prices.  Each runner took advantage of very favorable Flows to inflate their most recent performances.  

When 'with Zip' runners find themselves in less favorable circumstances,  they fail much more often than not.

Those that check out the free Bonus Plays at Racing Flow went 2-2 today,  as 'The Sense Angel' returned $6.60 to win the 8th at Tampa.

Nice single Kevin

Short price, but I get my single right (5) in the 8th.  

Very nice best bet Kevin-

Sure hope you played the DD.

And got my best bet right in the 9th; #7 at 5-1 odds

Now singled to the 8 in the last for the late Pick 3.  

Odds on the #7 in the 9th were funny.  Opened as the 9-5 favorite from a 6-1 ML.  Then drifted back up to 5-1.  Somebody knew something.....not me, I don't bet big enough to move odds.    

Going to try and beat that 10 horse with the 12 at GP

12 with 10,11 with 10, 11, 6, 9 trifecta

OK, now I'm going to complain.  Sorry Phil, just venting, not looking for reassurance or sympathy.

When I made my bets, I played the Pick 6 and late Pick 4 (among single race wagers).  Always make them early before the family wakes up.  

AFter missing the first two legs and seeing that a few of my later horses were scratched, I cancelled the late Pick 4 and made it to a Pick 3.  

Late Pick 4 was 2,9,10/5/1,3,5,7/8,14; just as listed above.  

Didn't think anything of it because the 10 came in 2d first leg.  But just realized the 11 was the post time fave and won, so I would have gotten him with the scratch of the 9.  

Now with the 14 scratched, I would get the 10 in the last leg.  If the 10 wins, I would have gotten a pretty good late Pick 4 payout.  I'll be ticked at myself.  

Wife always tells me not to change my bets. Mistake I consistently make.  

Congrats Kevin - well done

Can those Pick 6s

OK, ticked I didn't get the Pick 4, but got the consolation by a nice Pick 3; using 2 singles.  

Nicely done Kevin!  

Two winning singles and a $12 best bet should be a lot more than a consolation

Focus on your opinions,  not trying to get live or stay live.

Kevin : I thought that was a funny comment "  Always make them early before the family wakes up.  "   But yeah, I lost a lot by changing my bets so I stopped doing it.   If I'm given a ticket with the wrong bets at the window, I go back and make another bet with the right numbers.  Sounds stupid but can't let go an already printed ticket.  I'm very careful though, always check my tickets before I leave the window.

Again, nice job on the late P3 - always good to win on the last race, than the earlier races hehe.

Phil, at least I learned to play the Pick 3s and single race bets too; so the "close" Pick 6 wasn't wasted.  

And realize as close as my two losses were, the Rainbow wouldn't have paid out to me because so many more tickets would have been live without that 40-1 shot winning.  

Kevin-

Decisions are made with the information available at the time.  You will make yourself crazy dreaming about scores that should have been made.  

It's the same thing when people say that had a horse not broken slowly,  then it would have won.  There is no guarantee that subsequent events stay the same if one related event is changed.

There is what occured, and nothing else.

Just trying to help.

hawthorne race 8....like the 6 hollywood baba....5 to 1........the 10 horse is even, looks very tough, but think 6 might improve alot.....

10 wins easy...... wrong choice

haw race 9....how bout a longshot? #9 mystic royale...to close in the stretch....

Phil :  Are you saying that when you do your analysis for upgrades and downgrades, you don't take into account the troubles that horses get into during the race ?  I mean, at some level you have to recognize that troubles do affect the horse's performance right ?  

When you say " There is what occured, and nothing else. " , I just think it does have some effect.  If a horse does not break well and is 2 lengths behind early (when the horse is a normal speedball), re-rallies and loses by a nose, wouldn't you say that with a clean break, the horse may have won the race ?

Jay Jay

I'm an Army guy, so I'm wide awake by 5am every day; work or not.  Once the wife and kid gets up (by 8:00) I don't have the freedom to concentrate on handicapping.  

I usually review the night before then make final selections the morning of.  Today I actually didn't make any handicapping changes from night to morning.  

It was my best day handicapping in a long time.  $4 late Pick 3 ticket paid $170. I'm very happy.

JayJay -

We consider nothing that can't be quantified.  If the user wishes to take such events into account,  that is their perrogative.  My job is to provide expert analysis of our Figures as they relate to a particular running line.  Personally,  trouble lines are no factor for me.  

As for the example you give,  perhaps the fact that the horse missed the break put him in a more advantgageous spot realtive to the Flow.  Did the winner in your hypothetical come from behind the horse with the troubled start, or was the winner on the lead or in front of the troubled horse early.  For us, every horse in a race is measure against the winner's early position.  

I have seen countless races in which a runner genuinely benefitted by being left behind in a Closer favoring scenario.

To say something WOULD have happened 'if', is ridiculous.  There are a couple of posts in this thread that do just so.  Only the result is fact,  the rest is speculation,  and my stance on speculation is no mystery.

As a big baseball fan,  nothing annoys me more than the notion that a runner thrown out at 2nd base trying to steal would have scored on the ensuing triple.  There's no proof that the triple ever happens if an event that preceded it never happened.

Phil : Thanks for the explanation, I get where you're coming from now, everything and anything is based on your figures.  While I don't agree with it, I'm sure your customers benefits from how you view the races and how you analyze them.  I know you already put your "waiver" out to your customers that they still need to handicap.  I appreciate your devotion to your figures, hope it continues to work for you.

Kevin : Ahh ok.  Well, let me take this opportunity to thank you for your services, seriously.  I thought the late P3 paid more than that ?  It's still a nice return for a $4 investment.

Good news! Went the Day Well, unraced since finishing tenth in the Preakness, breezed a half-mile in :51.55 seconds this morning at Palm Meadows Training Center. He's on his way back!

Congratulations, Kevin! Keep up the good work!

Has anyone taken a look at the opening day card at Santa Anita? I haven't taken a very close look at it yet, but I think The Lumber Guy could be a vulnerable favorite in the Malibu. Personally, I feel that Fed Biz could be dangerous cutting back in distance off his poor showing in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, and Politicallycorrect ran exceptionally well in the Damascus Stakes at Santa Anita last month . . .

Any thoughts?

Keelerman :  Thanks for WTDW update, I really thought they retired him, it is indeed good news!  I had him in my derby tickets, but didn't have IHA at all lol.

Pete,

There is a relatively unknown colt that is unlikely to be on many lists. There are some details about him below:

Narvaez (Holy Bull – Miss Lulu) Like most Holy Bull’s runners he has no inbreeding in his first five generation.  Why the interest in this colt? His dam the highly raced Miss Lulu was sired by Unbridled who is a proven broodmare sire.  Wood Memorial winner and top class sire Tapit was produced from an unbridled mare. Preakness, Clarke winner and now retired Shackleford was also produce from an Unbridled mare. Several others sons of Fappiano have proven to be effective broodmare sires i.e., Quite American, Roy and Cryptoclearance . Narvaez second dam was sire by Private Account a son of Damascus. His third dam was sired by Tom Rolf a son of Ribot and his fourth dam was sire by Round Table. Assuming he has inherited some of the stamina for his laden dam line he should have no problems with the Derby distance.

He has one victory from 4 starts. He broke his maiden in his third start at the huge price of 42-1. It was the first time he had raced on a fast track as his two previous starts were on a sloppy track and a yielding turf course. In his last start he finished 4 3/4L behind Tulira Castle. He has tactical speed as displayed in his maiden victory where he was within 1/2L of the leader who set splits of 22.73, 46.44. He could not find enough in the stretch against Tulira Castle but maintained his gallop throughout.

I think this is a nice colt that bears watching. He has speed and his dam line has stamina to stay two miles. He could be another Holy Bull grey with no inbreeding in the 1st five generations that could turn out to be a champion. He is grey like champions Macho Uno and Giacomo and Flashy Bull.

The track record for a mile at Aqueduct is 1.32:40, set by Easy Goer.

Violence ran the distance in 1.35:32 while running erratically in the stretch.He remains unbeaten.

He seems to be an improving horse. If he runs the Kentucky in 2.5 seconds off the track record, he would win easily. The is a no-contest race if he stays fit and gets a good post.

Best not leave out GEORGE VANCOUVER

JerseyBoy,

I am well aware of your opinion for me and against my better judgment I am going to highlight some cold facts regarding the prospects of Violence being the winner of a no contest 2013 Derby.

If my recollection is correct you committed very early to Creative Cause as your choice for the 2012 Derby. I pointed out then that his sire Giants Causeway was one of a number of stallions that are regularly bred to 190 to 200 mares each year and historic data reflect that those stallions are not associated with Derby winners. In addition his dam was from a group that contains G1 winning millionaires and mares form this category rarely produces Derby winners. Well he finished off the board and continued the dismal Derby record of overbred stallions and G1 winning mares.

Violence’s sire Medaglia d’ Oro like Giants Causeway bred 194 mares in 2009. Medaglia d’ Oro has two colts on my list with Kentucky Derby points and Giants Causeway has none. My records reflect that no stallion that has bred that number of mare in a season has sired a Derby winner.  In fact very few of these foals make Derby field. His trainer Todd Pletcher cannot be considered a top Derby trainer with his dismal record. Each year he unleashes a trailer load of impressive 2YOs and for various reasons they go MIA come Derby time. He is tried and proven in the great race and he gets my overwhelming vote of no confidence. It might appear that I am being harsh on the top class trainer. However, if one considers that if one of his 2013 Derby starter’s finishes 15th he would have the distinction of having a finisher in every position since the introduction of the auxiliary gates. While he has one Derby winner from about 39 starters, his leading category is last and that accounts for five.

Violence is a nice colt but can hardly be considered one that will secure a Derby victory classified as a no contest. He hails from the Northern Dancer sire line that has produced 4 Derby winners in the last 26 years i.e., Ferdinand, Sea Hero, Charismatic and Big Brown. One cannot consider this sire line a prolific producer of Derby winners and it took the exceptionally brilliant Big Brown to break a 17 year drought. Interestingly this sire line is associated with most of the 2YO stakes performers i.e., Shanghai Bobby,  Goldencents , Delhomme, Overanalyze, Uncaptured, Frac Daddy, Smooth Bert, Den's Legacy etc. The 2YO class of 2012 is truly well represented by this sire line and there is always strength in number. However, the line’s moderate at best Derby record does not inspire confidence even with aforementioned numbers.

While Violence has produced fast times he has not been blowing away his opponents suggesting he is several lengths better. In his last race he took the entire length of the stretch to catch Fury Kapcori and when this  occurred he had to be hard ridden to repel the determined runner up. Third place finisher Dan’s Legacy appeared to be finishing best of all.  In his debut effort the Malibu Moon colt Orb stumble out of the gates and spotted the field 5L. He closed from several lengths last to be only beaten 2L for his third place finish. Considering the fractions of the race i.e., 22.74, 45.14, 1:09.91, Orb had to be regarded as being more impressive than those that finished ahead of him. Violence  is a nice colt but he has not delivered a performance that suggests he will be more dominant than either those on the short list for the Eclipse Award or the late developers. He has a number of hurdles to cross and being a betting man I would not bet on him doing so.

El Kabong - I was really stressed out in November over the sale of my 'freebie' weanling - the one my mare was carrying when I bought her. Cost about $7.5K just to raise and prep her to this stage. Bidding stalled just at that point for a bit, until she finally went for $11K. Less Kee's and agent's comissions, I will make a little bit of $, as opposed to losing it, which is happening to a lot of small breeders on their weanlings and yearlings.

Then as soon as I was recovered from that ordeal, I had to get to work on marrying off my son. I made the cake - did the decorating, too - and the restaurant engaged for the rehearsal dinner increased the stress by not communicating when it said it would. Not to mention cleaning for the onslaught of relatives. I don't take stress well; I am a 60yo with asthma and exhaust easily.

Haven't looked at PPs for what seems like weeks. All done, now, just recuperating, and just in time for Santa Anita. Huzzah!

Coldfacts:

Remember, pedigree and history mean nothing to me after a horse's record is available. All I care about is how fast the horse can run. That was my reason for picking Creative Cause last year. As insurance, I also backed I'II Have Another in my bets in the Future Pools because he beat Creative Cause. I came out winning.

I never change my system. But if the evidence changes, I change my pick. I will simply drop Violence if he evidence so dictates.

By the way, I had Fury Cap. to place in the start against Violence. He will be in an  exacta  with Violence in Pool 1. I will not back him to beat Violence on dirt, the surface on which the Kentucky Derby will be run.

Notice I gave my pick. I did not chicken out by listing half the field of prospects as some are prone to do. I say make your pick, then change if the circumstances change.

It is lovely here in the tropics.

Merry Xmas to all. Embrace Violence.

Coldfacts -

Impressive.

Keelerman,

Thanks for the update. He's a tremendous horse and I knew something was up right away when he ran so miserably in the Preakness. I hope his journey back is as good as Animal Kingdoms.

Pedigree Ann,

Enjoy the holidays, hope the dust settles so you can provide us with your valuable insight. I posted my list in Pete's last article but there are no real surprises in there except one, Manando. Take a look at him. I just got a work out notice from SA after his impressive maiden score at Hollywood, 46.2 handily, 1/74. He's worth a peak. Could be Baffert's best kept secret for now but I don't think that will last long. He's a Bluegrass Cat colt that ran his first two turn race like a pro.

Fractional Times: 24.65 48.90 1:13.60 1:37.67 Split Times: (24:25) (24:70) (24:07) (6:38) Run-Up: 80 feet  Final Time: 1:44.05

Won by 5 lengths, easily, hand ride against two decent colts, Curly Top and Persuasive Paul.

Keelerman -

re:  The Malibu - A favorite race of mine for a very long time.

We have no downgrades in the race and are 'neutral' on all but two horses.

The Lumber Guy was the lone Racing Flow upgrade going into the BC Sprint off a modest 'vs Flow Win' in the Vosburgh.  That win followed the strong upgrade he received in the very Closer favoring Peter Pan.  

As has been stated here repeatedly, we do not not classify the BC Saturday card as remotely Speed Biased,  however,  we did rate the FLOW of the Sprint as modestly Speed favoring.  While this rating was not enough to upgrade or downgrade any previously 'neutral' runners going into the Sprint,  it is enough for us the carry the upgrade on 'TLG'.  

Of the two next out, short priced winners that exited the BCS,  only Shining Tiger was given an upgrade,  as he too had a recent race which was used in combination with the Sprint.

Drill - This colt will be one of the two upgrades in the race for us.  His win in the Barrera was even better than looks considering the Extremely Speed favoring Flow of the race.  His defeat in the Northern Spur can be considered worthy of an upgrade as he was just off the winner in another Extreme Race for Speed.  Again,  this is a case in which two modest upgrades in back to back races combine to provide evidence of speed and stamina.

Private Zone,  upgraded along with Shining Tiger in the Underwood,  will drop down to a 'neutral' grade,  as the Racing Flow figures returned indicated that the race was perfectly fair for all.

Apparently, there was an unfounded concept being thrown about on a racing network famous for such misinformation,  that a slower than normal track automatically constitutes a Closer Bias.  It does not.

Happy Holidays Pete and to everyone, hope you all have a safe and awesome holidays and new years celebration.  I'm anxiously awaiting Santa Anita's opening.

Keelerman,

Thanks for the update on WTDW. He's a tremendous horse and I hope his return is as successful as Animal Kingdom's. I'll have to put him back in my barn.

Pedigree Ann,

Enjoy the Holidays. Sounds like you need a candle lit bubble bath, a glass of wine and a racing form:)

I posted my watch list on Pete's last column. Nothing to Earth Shaking but one horse, Manando is a little under the radar. Broke his maiden going 2 turns like a pro. Fractional Times: 24.65 48.90 1:13.60 1:37.67 Split Times: (24:25) (24:70) (24:07) (6:38) Run-Up: 80 feetFinal Time: 1:44.05 at Hollywood on AW. Won drawing off by 5 lengths under a hand ride and he beat a couple of good horses(Curly Top and Persuasive Paul) back on Dec 13th and just posted a workout today, 46.2, handily, 1/74. He's worth a look.

Have safe and family filled holiday everyone.

i havent had an anti-pletcher comment ive made get posted yet but i'll continue to send them. i agree that "bobby"s breeders cup win was gutsy. i also thought he was done at the head of the stretch..huge heart to win that one. however, every year pletcher gets the best bred horses in the country and every year he breaks them down or they prove to be early blooming sprinters that will be gone by may. i'd be stunned if bobby makes the derby

Merry Christmas anda happy New year to all.

Coldfacts,

You appear to be in sparkling form with your in depth analyses of the 2YOs right now...before the prep races start at any rate.  I'd like to know what you think of Todd Pletcher's "secret" weapon ...a colt that has disappeared from everyone's radar, Arch Warrior.

Spectacular Bid

Stated the same thing for years regarding Shandlers "friend" Pletcher. As many chances as he's had should've won three Derbys by now. He's everything i don't approve of. Bet Life At Ten is proud of him.

Happy Trails Mr. Klugman,

we'll miss you, but won't forget you.

Family is with family for the holidays, leaving me (had to work) with plenty of time for handicapping GP Wed card early.

3) 2, 10, 12

4) 6

5) 2,5,7

6) no clue, would appreciate other's thoughts.

7) 7

8) 4 (could have some bombs underneath though)

9) 4,7,8

10) 9, 12 (9 is my longshot of the day)

Will probably work on Santa Anita card later.  

Ranagulzion

Archwarrior - Mr. Pletcher’s secret weapon! To properly respond to your question I took the liberty of revisiting the definition of secret weapon.

“something or someone that no one knows about and that will give you an advantage over your competitors or enemies”

Archwarrior was launched twice to date and I am not sure he gave Mr. Pletcher’s competitors any indication that he has an advantage. A colt that breaks its maiden by 3 1/4 lengths then get whipped by three others in the Champagne can hardly be considered a secret weapon. Is this another of your extreme assessment? The fact that he has disappeared from action suggests he might be a dud instead of a scud. You must forgive my attempt of humor.

I like Arch warrior’s pedigree. He is bred along the same cross a 2010 Breeder Cup Classic winner and Zenyatta party spoiler Blame.  He only fetched $75K in the Keeneland Association November 2010 Breeding Stock Sale. A rather moderate price that suggests his conformation might not have matched his pedigree. I do believe if he is not one of the casualties of his usually injury plagued barn, he will be better as a 4YO. His pedigree suggests that’s when he is likely to show his true potential. His sire Arch is not known as a prolific 2YO or 3YO sire. Seeking the Gold does not have a stellar record as broodmare sire of precocious 2YOs.

He could return to the races and prove my assessment foolish. However, I have my doubts.

What’s your opinion of the following colts I have flagged for monitoring?

Mountain Edge – (Birdstone – Gulch Legacy by Gulch)

Boundless Heart – (Elusive Quality – Sacre Coeur by Saint Ballado)

Almost English – Tapit – Carol D by High Yield)

Silver Tounged – (Flatter – Whitelacenpromises by More Than Ready

Circle City – A P Indy- Miss Halory by Mr. Prospector)

Saint  X (Tiznow – Flaming Heart  by Touch Gold)

Anyone familiar with Henrythenavigator ?  I'm kind of intrigued by him as a sire, but not sure whether he's a mile horse since he mostly ran in mile races in europe.  His pedigree hints that he can go much longer (2nd in BC Classic when Raven's Pass won in 1;59) but I'm not an expert.  I'm hoping the pedigree gurus can provide more insight  (Footlick, Pedigree Ann, and others.)  He has Northern Dancer in him and that makes me think he could've gone longer.  Frankel ran mile  races and when he stretched out, it didn't make any difference, he still dominated.

I have a couple of Henry's maidens on my watch list :  Star Sight and Amerigo Vespucci.

Coldfacts:

Given your statement below why do you have the two sons on your list at all?

"Medaglia d’ Oro like Giants Causeway bred 194 mares in 2009. Medaglia d’ Oro has two colts on my list with Kentucky Derby points and Giants Causeway has none. My records reflect that no stallion that has bred that number of mare in a season has sired a Derby winner.  In fact very few of these foals make Derby field."

Kevin : I don't see a 12 horse in the 3rd race at GP, were you thinking of the 11 horse (Sharapova Slams) ?

JayJay, thanks, it is the #11.  

Coldfacts,

All the colts you mentioned in your 10:30 AM post are totally obscure and unknown quantities to me. I can neither support nor be critical except for two by AP Indy and his son Flatter. Your list involves too much guessing and covers too many horses at this stage.  I presume you want to be in a position to cover your risky touts and say down the road "I spotted that one early" However you need to support your hunches with more than pedigree and speculation based upon sales ring results. You included an AP Indy colt, Circle City and his grandson, Silver Tongued, a son of Flatter, knowing full well my stated position on the chances of these colts for the Derby ...why? I will repeat my position:no shot at winning the Derby. These types of pedigree are late developers better suited to the Summer stakes races.

Of the other colts that you've previously touted as worthy of observation for the Triple Crown trail, only Tulira Castle gets my attention.  He has indeed shown some ability and has outstanding pedigee being from the prolific Derby-winner-producing Raise A Native  sireline via Mr Prospector.

I've added Arch Warrior to my watch list nd I see you are not impressed because of his trainer. No problem. Looking forward for the prep races to get started in the New Year.

May you all pick the Derby winner in 2013.  Bless us everyone.

Hey.....gp contenders race1- 3,7

                     race2- 4,6

                   race 3-2,3,8,11

                     race4-3,5,7

                     race5- 1,5,7

                     race6-7,10,12

                     race7-3,7,11

                     race8- 4,6

                   race9-1,8,10,12

                     race 10- 2,12

picks tomorrow!

Hope 2013 is a smarter year for the blog........people spent half the year touting horse that never ran a beyer par for alw company...(check how to read racing form tutorial. 100 alw horses..).....yes UNION RAGS!......how people even put him in the same  league as uncle mo, (108 as 2 yr old 118 as 3 yr old) just shows how many people just dont know horses......stay thirsty was better than union rags....the owner and trainer knew thirsty wasnt in same league as mo.....

Why the endless talk over, and over,and over, over breeding? You people talk about it like its the most important thing! You argue about whos bred the best....coldcuts thinks of himself as the breeding guy, but NEVER picks the best bred horse...every year...horse after horse ...then when he picks some weird horse that isnt even the best bred...he likes unraced mares(wtheck?).lightly bred sires(yea)....and ranag...thinks horses bred by this or that sire are bred to run better 2 months down the line.........COME ON MAN!  Coldcuts throws out horses because of the month they are foaled!(jan)...or the color of a horse... HOW ABOUT THE HORSE? THE ATHLETE? Which is about 95% of it! .......................what? the site is called what?   ...................ok...nevermind!

JayJay- Henrythenavigator is a beautifully bred animal.  He is by Kingmambo out of a Sadler's Wells mare.  He was a miler through and through in Europe, so I don't really put as much stock in his BCC race as I do his Euro races.  To me he was a miler.  But his pedigree is a nice balance, so, imo, it would not be a stretch to see him sire 10f horses.  The dam's bloodlines would be important, but since he is a Kingmambo out of a Sadler's Wells mare, he does not lack in stamina influences.  BTW, I do not consider myself a guru.  I am just interested in bloodlines.  But thanks for including me.

Ranagulzion

My post dated 21 Dec 2012 10:54 AM advised Pete that his list covered most of the top 2YOs but some worthy colts were excluded. I then highlighted 7 colts that I though merited inclusion. Subsequent to that post I highlighted one other colt and that was the holy bull colt Narvaez. That brought the number of colt highlighted to eight. I have not provided a list of the horses that I have serious thoughts about. The colts I requested your opinions on are on watch based some reasonable past performances. If I have not provided details on a horse it means I have not placed it on a serious list.  I just wanted to know if you have seen any of their performances but clearly you have not. I hope this eliminates any confusion about quantity and potential bragging rights.

At this point it is highly unlikely that anyone is impressed with Archworrior and it has nothing to do with Mr. Pletcher. One maiden victory and a 4th place finish cannot be considered impressive.

NB: Official records reflect the colt's name as Archwarrior and not Arch Warrior.  Which is correct?

KY VET,

“stay thirsty was better than union rags”

Fact Check:

Union Rages:

2YO - won the Gll Saratoga Special, Gl Champagne and 2nd BCJ

3YO- won Fountain Of Youth,3rd FL Derby, 7th Kentucky Derby, 1ts Belmont.

Stay Thirsty:

2YO – 2nd Gl Hopeful, 5th BCJ

3YO – won Gll Gotham, 7th FL Derby, 12th Kentucky Derby, 2nd Belmont.

Union did not race beyond the Belmont thus the comparison is up to that point.  The cold facts do not support your claim. It is unlikely that you are capable of understanding any of the above but one can only hope.

NB: Names are proper nouns and the first letters should be capitalized.

Footlick : Thanks for the response, kind of what I was expecting.  I'm anxious to see his babies run on dirt, I just watched his BCC run and I thought he ran really well although that was when SA still had synthetic.  I'll check out his other babies who are already running to see how they're doing.   It would be exciting to see them run on turf, I've no doubt he'll have a really good turf runner soon.  I definitely think you're a guru when it comes to european horses and I think you know more about american horses too.

KY Vet : What league do you think Uncle Mo is in, I know he demolished the really tough fields in both the Timely Writer and Kelso Handicap but I can't remember which other races he won last year, do you ?  He was an example of a hyped up 2 yr old, which shows just because they win/dominate races at 2 doesn't mean they'll carry that form as a 3 yr old.

ColdFacts,

Done Talking was over 12-1 in a fourteen-horse field.

Coldfacts,

Archwarrior has shown a lot more at his excersise gallops in the mornings than he showed in his two performances todate.  Thats why there was so much hype about him leading up to his debut. He's obviously a good colt that is expected to get much better as a 3YO based on pedigree.  I think that the connections wanted to get some seasoning into him as a 2YO therefore he could be one of the ones to really break out before the Derby.  You should keep an open mind on this one inspite of not liking his trainer's Derby record.

Again, here's my watch list of 8 colts: Overanalyze, Darwin, Violence, Archwarrior, Flashback, Shakin It Up, Ore Pass and  Noble Tune.

There are a couple of others worth keeping an eye on but not yet "list-wortrhy": the filly Pure Fun, Super Ninety Nine, High Tail and Tulira Castle(this one I'm influenced by our insight).  

SA Stakes 12/26:  R4: 1,5,7 Mamma Kimbo for the steal.

R8: 4,3,5,8 Would have put Drill on top, but he already raced on the 21st.in the a.m.

I'm not sure why my post never showed up but I'll try again..

Footlick :  Thanks for the response, that's kind of what I was expecting.  I'm anxious to see his babies run on dirt.  SA still had synthetic when he ran 2nd in the BCC back in 2008 so I'm hoping his babies performs well on dirt.  I'm sure he'll have some good turf runners.

KY Vet : What league do you think Uncle Mo is in ?  He won the Timely Writer and the Kelso (G2) last year against allowance horses, Jackson Bend is the only legit horse he beat and JB was just starting to get good then.  He never won a G1 as a 3 yr old.   As I said before, UM and UR were both a classic examples shows just because they win / dominate races at 2 doesn't mean they'll carry that form when they turn 3.  

1st 2 at gp went well....2nd then a win.......gp race # 3 let go with #2   wp

pick 3 pretty nice at gp...will play alot of horizontal bets on contenders listed on earlier post at gp......sorry saginaw, just beat you w saratoga snacks 4/5 no biggie.....tam race 4 #5 essenceoftime...5 to 1   wp

Going to play the dime P6 and late P4 at GP

04 :  7, 6

05 :  7, 1

06 :  12, 3

07 :  8, 9, 1

08 :  6

09 :  3, 12

10 :  5, 12

SA Park picks :

01 :  3, 9

02 :  8, 10

03 :  12

04 :  2,5,3

05 :  3

06 :  12

07 :  2, 11

08 :  4,6,2,3

09 :  8,1,5

gp race 4 #3 wp at 5 to 1

aqu race 5 ...like 4 and 5......ill bet wp #5SEVENTY SIX

tam race 5 off a year layoff #1 wp chapa rita

gp horizonal p3 p6 p4s......but ill bet #7 in 5th..HAVANT

boom! nice run off year off #1 chaparita! 4 to 1 baby! tam5

Jayjay.....mo beat a jackson bend that ran beyers in the teens....like 112s   mo ran 118 beyer......he was awesome.....youre funny

aqu race 6... hate the favs...7 and 3.......that leaves the 5....reganomics.....this might be the play of the day......nice wp........chance to make real money here folks!

santa anita upset....sir bond is good but lets go #9 macho durado ....mike mitchell

re: Santa Anita 6th

The 12 Belvin rates as the lone Racing Flow downgrade on the card.  

His debut received an inflated figure as he closed with the aid of a very Closer favoring Flow,  yet was unable to catch the winner.  It's worth noting that the winner of the race,  Distinctive Passion, was a bold upgrade going into that Nov 25th event, and will carry that top designation again when next seen,  as he recorded a rare 'vs Zip Win'.

The 6th features one upgraded runner coming out of a race that has been the topic of some discourse here.  

As previoulsy stated,  Racing Flow considered the main track on Nov 18th to be notably Closer Biased.  As a result, we dcowngraded the efforts of the Little Jeff as well as the 2nd place finisher Curly Top.  Since then,  Curly Top and Pervsuasive Paul impressed with a upgraded effort behind the wire to wire winner of a very Speed favoring Flow. Manando, the winner, will be downgraded when next seen

7 Forest Boy made what we term a 'Quick to' move,  having been significantly closer to the early pace that the eventual winner and having made a pre-mature move to the lead,  only to be caught from behind by runners that were beneficiaries of the Bias.  

My Late P4 ticket at SA looks like this:

7 / _ / 3, 4 / 2

Best of racing luck.

BEST OF THE DAY!!!! WHAT HAPPENED TO 5 to 1?  bet down to 5/2......sorry guys! THAT WAS ME!!!! he wins by 14? lol!!!!!!! rich!!!!!!!!!!

race 6 tam..small bet #6

gp race 6 #7 wp caps lady

Drove back to Lexington from Chicago in the middle of the night to avoid the snowstorm.

Thanks for all the comments and sharing of lists. Hope you all are enjoying the holiday season.

Just watched the opener from Santa Anita. Looks like the same surface - fast and speedy.

race 6 gp BOOM!!!! winner caps lady.......this is already a special day!

aqu race 7 look out for dutrow #1 box office......tampa #9 OPERA HALL  but look out for 12 to 1 one horse...

BOOM!!!!!! the pro!!!! aqu race 7 BOX OFFICE eaaaassssyyyy!!!!!4 to 1 baby.........what a day!!!!

sa race 2 wild lonshot to hit board...#13 mr candy bar

gp race 7 #7 ainsley......gg race 2 #6 tiz crowded

aqu race 8 lonshot #1 copper bluff wp......

JayJay -

Did you catch the SA R1 DD ?

Well done if so.

winner race 2 at gg! race 8 tam....#2 petak mountain....santa anita #3 TIMETODOUBLEDOWN

You know why I make money on racing? 204 comments and zero?? (maybe a few) notes on He's Had Enough. Should have won the BC. Forget all the synthetic and/or turf races. The horse obviously wants DIRT, but all you people see is "who beat who", the oldest, dumbest form of handicapping. The horse ran on Poly, Poly, Poly, DIRT & Cushion tracks. A seasoned handicapper only looks at the dirt race, which was pretty good.

tam race my horse scr.....aqu race 9 #11 wakes up today!!! w/p

BOOM!!!! santa anita TIME TO DOUBLE DOWN!!! YEA!!!!!! winner again!!!!!!!

Rusty Weisner,

You are correct regarding the final odds for Done Talking. He paid $27.20.  Many thanks        

Time to get involved at GP

9th:  11 Hariolus

yea!!!!!! did the aqu race 9 horse wake up?  how bout 5 length winner!!!! hot!!!!!!!!!!!

Ranagulzion,

“All the colts you mentioned in your 10:30 AM post are totally obscure and unknown quantities to me.”

This forum provides for the sharing of information.

Mountain Edge – (Birdstone – Gulch Legacy by Gulch) - Won an 8F maiden race at GP in 1:35.95. His sire Birdstone has the distinction being the sire of two colts that won the Derby and Belmont in the same year i.e., Summer Bird and Mine That Bird. A colt sired by a Belmont winner that wins his second start in 1:35 and a bit nerits watching.

Almost English – Tapit – Carol D by High Yield) – A May 23rd foal that has one victory at 7F from 3 starts. Finished 3rd to Fear The Kitten in an 8F race at CD after leading for 7F. Fear The Kitten was 5th to Uncaptured in his subsequent race. Almost English moves beautifully and being a May foal there is a lot of scope for improvement.

Silver Tounged (Flatter – Whitelacenpromises by More Than Ready) Finished 3rd to Oxbow in a fast run 7F race (1:22.97) at CD. Oxbow subsequent race was a 4th place finish in the Cash Call Futurity. A colt by a two times BCC winner via a dam by a Belmont winner that shows promise in his races merits watching.

Circle City – A P Indy- Miss Halory by Mr. Prospector – Another colt the product of A P Indy via a Mr. Prospector mare. This cross produced the recently deceased Pulpit and many other talented horses including HOY Mineshaft.  I am awaiting a route race to better evaluate this colt.

JerseyBoy,

The Derby is one race. There are several Derby preps to be contested and I do wager exotic bets.  I eliminate horse from overbred stallions from the Derby top spot but not from the race entirely.

gp race 10 #2 tango kid wp

gp race 10 #2 tango kid wp

santa anita...race 5 another good price on #8 SILENTIO wp

SILENCIO!!!!!!!!!!! winner at santa anita! nice 3 to 1......good horse....love this game!!!!!

top twenty is pretty tough so early, but here goes:

1.Violence

2.Noble Tune

3.Reckless Abandon-not sure what Goldolphin's plans are, but would love to see this one point for Derby

4.Park City

5.Positivley

6.Handsome Jack- has solid breeding

7.Rolling Fog-Baffert's special

8.Dawn Approach-hope he comes for Derby

9.Toronado

10.Normandy Invasion

11.Frac Daddy

12.Overanalyze

13.Goldencents

14.Power Broker

15.Lawn Man- I like him

16.Sonofasamurai

17.Joha

18.Archwarrior

19.Balance the Books

20.He's had Enough

...........................

also like..

21. Uncaptured

22.River Seven

23.Silk- think this filly is a good one

Can anyone explain the infatuation the betting public had with 2 Tango Kid ?

"Good thing we didn't step in it".

Hey everyone. Someone brought it to my attention that I was a topic of conversation on this blog. I thought I'd check in. I'm enjoying my new business in South Florida, especially the weather. I try to hit Gulfstream once per week if time allows. Truth be told, I don't miss BH all that much but I do miss the blog debates from time to time, especially during Derby season.

Good to see some familiar names on here. El Kabong, Footlick, Ranag, Ted, and others, I hope you're doing well.

Pete is doing a nice job with the blog. Good to see some people have remained.

Here's hoping everyone has a happy and healthy new year and 2013 is an exciting one in racing.

I would be remiss if I didn't mention that you Mike Relva are a big time loser/troll/angry/waste of oxygen.

Take care everyone! I'll check back every now and then.

Jason

ok......why is forest boy 9/2 in the sa 6th race? wow......wp

darn...nice 2nd by the 7 f boy....fav was too much

really plod? thats aimed at the pro?  funny....sa race 7 either 3,5,8.......ill go with 8 ringtoo wp...went off the 2..hope made right move....

RINTOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! you guys think im playing?   luck?    pro! 4 to 1 again!!!!!!!!! lordy lordy...

even on the lumber guy? ha ha.......i will stay out of that mess......dont bet the fav

ok dutch.....bet #2 and 3 in malibu

When youre hot youre hot!!!!!! JIMMY CREED!!!!! 8 to 1!!!! and other 10 to 1 4th......lumber guy? HAHA! told ya!   ............pro!

man.....knew race was wide open, but hated lumber guy.....odds were too crazy to stay out.....

I had such a good day today....didnt even post my exotics, which were wicked good....tell me, should i give some to charity?

Congrats, KY.  Just don't give it all back in one day :)  Nice picks.

Hey Jason, we r jealous of your weather right now. It's freezing up here.

Thanks for stopping by. They actually reminisce about you fairly often, from time to time.

Did anyone see the 9th race winner at santa anita today? What a freak....i know talent when i see it.....108 1/5! faster than everyone this day...same split as malibu.grade 1.......in his 1st out in months.......wow! SCORPION WARRIOR!

Coldfacts,

Of those colts hat yur are informing me about, only Mountain Eagle (not Mountain Edge as you incorrectly called him twice) has the pedigree to become a Derby horse.  The others have no shot ...I repeat none, nada zinc/zilch/zero my friend. You can quote me on that.

KY Vet : That's a really good argument about Uncle Mo,  lot of good that 118 beyer did him in his subsequent races.  I was going to say nice hits on some of your picks but seems like every time you post a winning pick it's after the race had run.  It's not hard to pick a winner after the race :)  Funny.  Anyway, enjoy your winnings.

PBP : Yes, I had the double and the P3 but had the 12 won, I would've had a $4 P3 ticket.  I bet a straight single ticket with 3,8 and 12 but learned my lesson from the other day so I played a $6 ticket with 3 with 8,10, 2 with 12, 3.  Having started my P5 ticket with the 3 and 8, I thought I was in for a nice payday but it all fell apart starting with the 3rd race lol.  Played the rest on my P6, would've had 5 out of 6 if Renee didn't get nipped at the wire.   SA track was weird today, those splits were ridiculous.  I'm interested to see what your downgrades and upgrades will be from the SA card today.

Kevin : Nice pick on that 11 horse, hope you hit the P3 starting with that leg and played all on the last, nice juicy payout ($1,100.)

Jay Jay

Thanks for saying what I'm sure most are thinking.

I see all of KY VETS posts about how he picked the winner; after the race is over.  

Even those where he posts "like the ## horse, its after the race is over and the next post brags about how he picked another winner.  

Ranagulzion,

My bad! How could I  confuse Flatter with Tiznow. My intension was to specify that Flatter sired two time Jockey Gold Cup winner Flat Out. Do accept my apology.

Ranagulzion,

My friend thanks for the correction. When an initial error is made and one copies and past the error is replicated. I never specified that any of the colts mentioned would be the Derby winner. However, I have learnt that none of these developing horses can be discounted. If they have the pedigree to effectively get 10F they have a chance.

Giacomo entered the Derby with only a maiden victory to his credit and exited with the crown. Mine That Bird squeezed in due to late scratches because of injuries and gave the best Derby performance in the last 40 years. I agree they are behind the eight ball at this stage but I am mindful of never saying never.

Transparent one of the maidens on my watch list will start at the Big A on Friday Dec 28. He will be facing Mr. Pletcher’s 8/5 Revolutionary with Mr. Dominquez. I am hoping this colt has finally figured out what racing is about and delivers the performance I think he is capable of. He certainly has the ability but seems confused in his races.  His morning line is 4-1 and he could provide the necessary funds for me to bring in 2013 in style. You will no doubt have no interest as he was sired by Bernardini.

Are we going by the "off at" times?

Gulfstream picks for Thursday.

Race 2) 4

Race 5) 1,9

Race 6) 7 (best bet)

Race 7) 12 (unless 13 draws in)

Race 8) Wide open, but like the 3 as a long shot

Race 9) leaving this alone.  Grade 1 runner dropping into low O/C.  

Race 10) 2

Mary Zinkie : I don't know, are we ?  I don't know where you and KY Vet bet but I'm pretty sure you can't bet after the race started, some OTB even close the betting like 1 or 2 minutes before they go off.

Kevin : I guess not ALL were thinking what we were thinking... :)

Ranagulzion,

My friend thanks for the correction. When an initial error is made and one copies and past the error is replicated. I never specified that any of the colts mentioned would be the Derby winner. However, I have learnt that none of these developing horses can be discounted. If they have the pedigree to effectively get 10F they have a chance.

Giacomo entered the Derby with only a maiden victory to his credit and exited with the crown. Mine That Bird squeezed in due to late scratches because of injuries and gave the best Derby performance in the last 40 years. I agree they are behind the eight ball at this stage but I am mindful of never saying never.

Transparent one of the maidens on my watch list will start at the Big A on Friday Dec 28. He will be facing Mr. Pletcher’s 8/5 Revolutionary with Mr. Dominquez. I am hoping this colt has finally figured out what racing is about and delivers the performance I think he is capable of. He certainly has the ability but seems confused in his races.  His morning line is 4-1 and he could provide the necessary funds for me to bring in 2013 in style. You will no doubt have no interest as he was sired by Bernardini.

JayJay / Kevin -

Just a thought,  but surely trscking the performance, legit or otherwise, of KY VET can't possible be beneficial to you,  Can it ?

I say waste not precious energy that could be used more effectively elsewhere.

JayJay -

Nicely done on the SA card.  That said,  I do find it intriguing that bloggers feel compelled to include wager size when speaking of successful tickets.

Be happy to share any pertinent info reagarding today's races at SA next week.

KY VET -

No question it was an impressive performance by Scorpion Warrior.  However,  before getting too carried away,  let's not forget to factor in the fact that the 1st Q and half mile splits associated with the 6f races at SA are significantly faster on average than those run at 7f.  

PBP :  It's a blog, people are welcome to post their opinions on it.  I find it fun to comment back to KY Vet, it's not necessarily for everyone to read.  Just like when you post your analysis, it's not beneficial to everyone since not everyone believes in your "flow" but they have the right to comment on it and for you to respond (as long as there's no insults which Pete already posted before as one of the rules.)

As for the wager size, a $4 ticket pays more than a $1 ticket.  I bet the races to make money I can take home, picking a winner is fun, but it's a lot more fun if I'm making a lot of money.  I don't get excited with a $2 double that pays $80, or a $2 win that pays $4.  That to me, seems like a waste of precious time and energy but that's only my opinion.

One of my derby dozen horse ran today, Mylute, with a new jockey, the gorgeous Rosie and won the allowance race quite easily at Fair Grounds.   I said before, this horse needs a new jockey and I'm glad they got Rosie.  I just added him to my watch list so I don't miss his next race.  Looking forward to seeing him in the prep races.

JayJay -

True - it is for opinions.

Mary Z did bring up a good point.  While you are monitoring his wagers and results,  you might as well check the official 'off at' times in the charts against the time stamp of the post before passing judgement.

To clarify, I did not say it was not beneficial to those reading such things.  Rather I questioned what the ROI was for those doing so.  ROI does not have to be monetary.

I simply find the psychology of such things as seeking comfort in losing, tracking KY VET and announcing how big a ticket was intriguing.  

JayJay, I only started including my last name due to there being another Mary who was an ardent admirer of a horse I only sort of liked. So, Mary would be fine, but no worries. I was only noticing that KY's picks have many times, including today, been posted before the "off" times for the races in question.  When I wager, it is at Turf Paradise. There is no online wagering allowed in Arizona. I see the track regulars making wagers at those self-serve machines when the horses are heading into the starting gate--yes, wagers for that race.

It's not like Mr Aloof would allow a groupie anyway--geez.

Jason

Seriously doubt BH misses you either. Nice to know I can still hit a nerve at will. lol

PBP : If you read my comments again, you'll see that I used the word "seems", who knows really, was waiting for him to respond but Mary already responded for him.  I'm a little intrigued at you following all my comments and posts.  Let me ask you, what's the ROI for you following my comments which are following KY Vet's comments ?  It seems to me it's an attempt to distract readers from your failed upgrades/downgrades from today's race cards.  I say that because when your upgrades and downgrades were hitting, you pretty much ignore my comments :)

I mention how big my ticket was because I'm a bet small to win big type of gambler.  Some people like to bet big to make enough profit, but you probably don't really understand that because you make your money selling your product where you charge money for your analysis, regardless of whether your users win or not, you already made your money.  It's really no different than Beyer, he put out a formula out there that people use, whether he is right or wrong, it doesn't matter because people already paid for the info.

Mary : First off, I apologize for misspelling your last name, that was an honest mistake, I'm still getting used to bifocals lol.  I really don't think you need to always defend KY Vet to me, I'm picking on him and vice versa but it's all just for fun.  I don't think he takes me seriously and I never take his posts seriously.  It's all fun and games.  You're welcome to ignore my posts if it offends you, I promise with all my heart I won't get offended :)

We are definitely off topic here, instead of talking about horses, we've turned to talking about personalities. So I promise, this is my last discussion on this topic.

But PBP, if you are mentioning "intrigue" I find it intriguing that you dove into my  and JayJay's psychology (wager size and what you call a cry for support) but ignore dozens of comments made by another that even if legit are made solely for arrogance.  

Believe me, I'm not wasting time on the topic, it takes only as long as it takes to type....and I'd make a great secretary.  A PRO!!    

JayJay,

Mylute is listed under my RAN/Mr. Prospector sire line. His 10 1/4L victory at FG was achieved with very slow fractions of 25, 50, 1:15, 1:40. Based on his Delta Jackpot 3rd place performance he should have been 8/5. However, there was another even money colt in the race i.e., General Election. I was impressed with his devastating move in the Delta Jackpot to get within striking distance of leader Goldencents. It appeared the move took its tool as he flattened out late in the short stretch.

He is a nice colt that has dam sire Carson City as major positive. Carson City was dam sire of Barbaro and the rapidly improving Bourbon Courage. Can he win the Derby? He will have to improve significantly in the speed department and the top ones have to be injured.

Ranagulzion,

“Again, here's my watch list of 8 colts: Overanalyze, Darwin, Violence, Archwarrior, Flashback, Shakin It Up, Ore Pass and Noble Tune.”

Exactly 50% of the colts on your list are trained by the 1 for 39 Mr. Pletcher. Your obsession with this trainer is only superseded by former BloodHorse operative Mr. Shandler who is convinced that there will not be a thoroughbred racing record left standing when his career ends. There are various reasons why records are kept. If he was to be judged on his multiple Eclipse Awards, record breaking stakes victories and single season earnings record, he would deserve the level of confidence you have maintained over the years. Just as Mr. Baffret has not figured out how to win the Breeder Cup Classic, Mr. Pletcher has not figured out how to prepare multiple horses for the big dance. I remain convinced that any trainer that publicly declares that he needs 4 weeks between races is not a serious Triple Crown trainer. Why? The Preakness is contested two weeks after the Derby and consequently this time frame does not fit within his comfort zone. Horses use to race twice per day in the olden days and this super trainer requires 4 weeks to restore a fit horse to race competitiveness.  Unbelievable! Of the four, Voilence appears to be the only one with a chance to hit the board but will not win the great race.

Of the remaining four, Noble Tune is clearly the best. His trainer has chosen to restrict him to turf and that suggest it his preferred surface. Your list is light and far off target for the likely winner. It’s early days yet and I am sure you will update it accordingly.

NB: Darwin – He was acquired for $1.3M and given a name used 17 times previously. Does he remind you of Dunkirk another high price colt ($3.7M) that was given a name used 11 times previously? If that type of money is going to be spent on a thoroughbred and the purchasers are bankrupt for names they have the option of requesting thoroughbred lovers’ assistance. To date only one million dollar purchase has won the Derby. The Gods of thoroughbred racing affords even a peasant with a little cash to be able to purchase a Derby winner.

Thanks for the giggles this morning guys.

El Kabong (aka "Quicks-draw") -

Thank you for the kind thoughts. Mostly I sat in the recliner and watched my daughter fry Reapers, Geth, Cerberus operatives, and Collectors. (Mass-Effect, a very popular video game. Shepherd lives!)

Henrythenavigator has an interesting pedigree. His sire Kingmambo was a miler who has sired classic-distance horses, to whit, Lemon Drop Kid (12f), El Condor Pasa (12f), King Kamehameha (12f), Campanologist (12f), etc. HOWEVER, Henry's dam was a champion 2yo in Ireland over 6-7f who didn't train on at 3. Moreover, he is closely inbred to the 'Footwear' family via Special, a formula that limited the distance ability of Kingmambo's high-class son Archipenko, IMHO. Couple that with a US miler family (Prayer Bell branch of Idle Fancy), and one has to have some doubts that Henry could really stay. That means I would consider only his offspring whose damside had some stoutness in it for a Derby run.

Kevin

Speaking of off topic, NTRA used to be a great site to share opinions until a certain few managed to ruin it.

Ranagulzion,

Did you see the debut of Footbridge the latest member of the Darley team?  He is a Street Sense colt by a mare sired by the exceptionally brilliant Dubai Millennium. His second dam was sired by Deputy Minister who needs no introduction as a broodmare sire. He finished 3rd  form and unfavorable post in 6F, MSW at Santa Anita  yesterday. He is no sprinter. One could not miss his long powerful strides. Dubai Millennium did not last long a stud due to his untimely death so it is unlikely that he has a large broodmare band. In spite of this he is the broodmare sire of 2011 Dubai World Cup winner Victoire Pisa. He is going to be a one of the top ones in CA.

GP :

06 :  6, 9, 4

07 :  8

08 :  1, 11

09 :  3, 6

10 :  14, 2, 8

FG :

05 :  5

06 :  4

07 :  1, 5

08 :  10 (single if he draws in), otherwise I'll single the 3

09 :  4, 7, 8

Informational site which has all the information you'll need about the new scoring system (make sure you scroll to the right to see the info :

www.kentuckyderbyinfographic.com

Coldfacts -

I happened to notice the 2 Footbridge warming up yesterday prior  to the 6th.  To my untrained eye, he looked very good. So good in fact,  that I put him under my play of the day, the failed Forest Boy,  who was of course beaten by the horse I downgraded in the same post.  

As for Dubai Millenium,  I have a DVD of him which covers three of his most powerful performances. Perhaps it's the race caller, but even a couple of non-racing friends have had shivers while watching.

TVG Handicappers really talked Footbridge up.  He will be low odds next race.  

Horrible handicapping so far at Gulfstream.  Only saving grace is a DQ moved my best bet from 3d to 2d.  

Pedigree Ann : Thanks for the post on Henry, I'm surprised to read that but that's really good info and will take that into account when I'm looking at Henry's maidens.  I just really like the way the horse looks lol.  He a stud!

Coldfacts : Yes, I know it was slow, that doesn't bother me.  I will have to assume that the Derby will be run in fast splits for Mylute to have a chance but like I said before, splits and final times does not matter to me.  This horse can run and given the foundation, I think can be competitive at the highest level.  I mentioned in my post in the previous blog, I thought they moved too early in the Delta and pretty much didn't have any left in the stretch and hence the need for a new jockey.  He's got a good jockey now, hope she stays so she gets used to him.

Played a $9 .50 P4 at GP with the 6 horse as a back up to my single 8 which I spent $26 on P4.  Alive to the 1, 9, 11 in this leg.  

JayJay:

"...have to assume that the Derby will be run in fast splits for Mylute to have a chance..........splits and final time do not matter...."

Which is it ?

Was the jockey switch really responsible for the 10 length win ?

One more point regarding the DeD Jackpot.  

You have a really hard sell trying to convince anyone that G Melon moved too soon in a race that was won by a wire to wire winner.

Please.

Thanks for the compliment guys....obviously i pick before the race is run...ive been posting my picks because for some reason, i was having bunch of winners, but not as many as normal every time i was posting on here....good but not great....when i wasnt posting, i was killing ....i know im a pro, how good i am, so i knew the cream always rises.......just normal day....................accusing me of cheating is a great compliment....anyone been noticing how good i am when i dont like the fav?  Go back and look.....beating 1/5s 3/5s evens 6/5s almost every time..........thats sick......

Jay jay.....Uncle mo won a champion 2 yr old award...one the the fastest bc ever.....best 3 yr old time(beyer) at 3....he was awesome......he lost a race? horses lose races...duh.....didnt like him in that turtle classic race.....

They are loading in the 9th at GP.  I put today's bankroll (whats left of it) on the 7 to win.  

That worked out well.  Knew it was a lock when the horse started to relieve himself before entering the starting gate.  watching the loaders (who usually lock arms around a horses backside to coax them into the gate) shy away from Cigar St as he pooped was hilarious.  

Well, Cigar Street killed my P4.   Time to go to the mall and play the banjo, maybe I can make enough for the races this weekend.

Taking 1/2 my winnings on the 7 and rolling it over on the 2 in the 10th at GP.  

Plod boy , trying to downgrade warriors performance? Maybe watch the horse run....his 1st out in months.....and putting down jay jays horse...the horse improves every race, and jay was right, horses cant keep going when they move that fast.......i wouldnt critic that pick.....heres a news flash....HORSES IMPROVE! This is the whole game...you go on one thing....you better expand your thinking....

KY VET -

That is not what I wrote.

I merely wanted to convey that comparing split times at different sprint distances on the same track is unreliable.

6f 1st Q times ar ~4 lengths faster than 7f 1st Qs at SA.

The half miles at SA are ~2.5 lengths faster than 7f half miles.

Nothing about downgrading the performance,  just giving it some context.

Always like ending on a good note; back to back winners.  

One thing I wonder about are "buzz" horses.  The 10 was down from 12-1 to 2-1 for quite a while, drifted back up to 4-1.  But then didn't run a lick.  

The DeD runner up 'waited' longer to make his move and still failed to catch the wire to wire winner.

The race was either favorable to Speed or the winner was just plain better.  In no way did the jockey lose that race anymore than the jockey won the race yesterday.

KY VET -

To correct you again.  I did not 'critic' (?) the pick of Mylute.  I did question the reasoning he gave for the horse's defeat in the DeD Jackpot.  

Another nice bullet work at GS for "Fear the Kitten" when will he run?  At GS? Anyone know?

PBP : I dont' know what it is with you and my comments.  I can't pinpoint it except that maybe you have this illusion that people here think really highly of me and my comments and that you feel that in order for people to take you and your analysis seriously, you have to make me look bad lol (your ROI ?).  Look, I checked your product, was intrigued by it and after seeing you post a couple of things made me realized it's not for me.  One, you don't watch races and two, you don't take into account troubles that horses encounter during the race.  Your analysis is purely on splits and times and it's really no different than all the other products out there like the beyer and formulator etc etc.   I also understand your mindset about "selling" to everyone, because that's exactly what you're doing here, selling your product.   I appreciate that you think your racing flow is the top product out there, you have to, but please keep in mind that not everyone believes in it.  

Now for the Delta Jackpot, I know you're disagreeing because you're stuck with your flow formula.  I watched the race and "I" thought the jockey moved too early.  That's MY opinion, I wasn't trying to convince anyone.  Of course you'd disagree because you don't watch races, my opinion was based on what I saw in the race.  Does it mean I'm right ?  NO, I could very well be wrong but then it would be MY money that would be lost if I go all in on Mylute right?  I'm not responsible for anyone who listens to me and bet their money on the horse.  I watched the FG race and Rosie was much closer and didn't really ask Mylute until the top of the stretch and guess what, they won by many lengths.   Does that mean I was right about the Delta ?  Again, NO, it's very possible he was just too good against that allowance field and he could've won starting the run from the backstretch but I'm feeling much more confident about the horse now that I saw the difference between starting the run at the backstretch vs at the top of the stretch.  But see, I recognize the fact that it's not just the run, nor the jockey.  That's why watching the race is important to me cause I also see how the horses he beat ran.

If you start watching races, maybe you'll start understanding the way I handicap.   The splits and the times of the race does not help me handicap because as I've stated before, there are too many variables that can change.  I really think it's a useless info when handicapping the horse' next race.   When I handicap, I use mostly how the odds move, I look at the pedigree, distance, type of race and jockey.  I'm sticking to it as I know it works for me and in the end, that's all that matters.  I picked 4 winners in yesterday's SA card, you downgraded the one horse I singled.  I don't know if you were able to pick winners from other tracks but your flow didn't do well at SA.

jay jay doesnt read the form...he guesses....plog boy takes peoples money for 1 peice of info....its like taking a knife to a battle field..................how many wars did the swiss win?

The reason WARRIOR was impressive....was not just the spectactular 108 1/5....it was the awesome he rebroke at the 18th pole...horses dont do this.......watch people.......

I thought the Swiss were "neutral" but I'm only guessing.   I don't guess when horses will wake up, that's too much guessing but if it works for you... Where's the 18th pole ?  Are we still talking about horse racing ?

/

JayJay -

General Note:  If you do not want rebuttle on your posts, then the solution is very simple.

As for Racing Flow being like Beyer, it is NOTHING like a Beyer fig or a Sheet fig, etc.  As I mentioned,  I spent two decades studying final time based speed figures.  The point you are missing, is that Final Time based Speed figures DO NOT incorporate the pace of the race.  

re: Mylute's win - Do you think that the splits of the race had anything to do with the horse being more forwardly placed ?  

re: Why analyzing the past

We measure relative speed, not absolute speed.  Our Flow figures give us insight into which runners are making important, and often hidden, accelarations during a race - something that is the very essence of handicapping. 'Seeing' speed that nobody else sees is where we have an edge.  Also, fwiw, Formulator is a great tool,  not a methodology.

Watching races and 'trouble lines' have already been covered.  So many preach it yet only a tiny percentage have even half a clue as to what they are seeng.  How many horses paying $40 or more have you uncovered by watching races or accounting for trouble ? We've had too many to count this year alone, all on nothing but Flow figures incoporated with running line analysis.

re: DeD Jackot - We do not have Flow figures for DeD. However, I do understand the importance of measuring one's horse in context with how the winner won the race. Had Mylute moved to the lead,  then been caught from behind,  we would not be having this discussion.

Congrats on your 6/5 single at SA. I encourage you to bet as many of our downgrades as possible.  While I'm aware of the pitfalls of DGing lightly raced 2 yr olds,  I'll continue to eagerly bet any upgrade if a short priced downgrade is in the race.

As for the Flow at SA yesterday,  you are correct.  Five upgrades produced just one runner up and a 3rd place finish at 15-1 in an off the turf event.  That said, the back to back $120 and $102 winners on the closing Sunday at Hol will keep our SoCal players in the black for a very long time to come.

And finally, you will never hear and read anything from me that mentions anyone's unsuccessful day at the races.  I'll leave that to those that are much more short-sighted.

Best of racing luck.

KY -

If 'rebroke' means he slowed down from his 5th 1/8 to his final 1/8th,  then I'm with you.

delta race 1 grab bag...double..6,8 with 2,3

plod.....you seriously believe people think you selected these 100 dollar winners? You are advising people to bet all horses w upgrades? thats silly...i think i'll start an even number site...i'll call it EVENFLOW! see? my subscribers had 5 winners this day.....even number horses won half the races....!!! Last 3 outs...that horse lost because he had an odd number! We were waiting for this day!.............youre welcome!

yes....he went 21change and came home in 12flat...what do you want? 1st out in months...........look....i get why you wont post any picks......oh....you did......i get it........

KY -

Each race had 2 upgrades.  We ran 1-2 in the 9th for a $1,200 exacta and the 2nd leg of the 2x2 Daily Double ($8) returned an underlayed $2K.  You know why there were 15 tickets on two 'impossible' horses ?   You guessed it - Racing Flow subscribers.

plod boy....wouldnt jays ded horse get a big upgrade for ded race? watch rerun...1 horse was moving hugely on the turn...blowing past horses....then he quit...why you think that was?  duh....

ded race 2....looks like 1/2/3/8 the contenders.....8 might go off form..........dont really like anyone again....hope later races better.....2 is 12 to 1......he runs good today...top 4.....ill bet in the money with the 2

ded race 2) 3,8,1  the 2 ran bad.....ded race 3....our first betting opportunity!#4 border play is assmussen horse..thatll draw all the money...ran good 1st out,then 2 months off was fav. and ran bad! shoulda fired...lets try to beat him with the #9 country saint......first prime bet of the card!

Don from PA/DE

Don't know the answer to your question, wish I could help.

You have to realize that this Blog is now called the Ky Vet, Plod Boy. Jay Jay and Kevin Blog. Don't think they even saw your question.

KY -

Already commented.

My only point was that it is very very unlikely that the result had anything to do with aq jockey moving too soon.

Here's a turn-about to all the 'watch the race' guys:  Read a chart and learn what the information provided means.

Racing Flow Bold Upgrade

Friday

12/28

Aqueduct

Race 3

2 Blue Creek

PBP : I'm happy to rebuttle, I just think it's a waste of time because you see things only with split times which I think is ridiculous.   I see that you're still trying to "defend" your product but you really need to sit back and accept the fact that I'm not impressed with it and will never be because of how you and your partner analyze the races.  I'm glad to hear that you can pick $40 winners, for the sake of your users, I hope you do otherwise it's a waste of money.  So $120 and $102 will keep your users in the black for a long time?  What's a long time ? I'm not sure how they bet but hey, if they can stay on a $120 budget for a long time, I commend them.  I'm not that good lol.

My handicapping has produce me some winners, and have paid off.  Here's the link to my posted tickets.  I haven't hit anything big in the last 3 months so I stopped posting but feel free to look at them.  I hit those winners using my own way of handicapping and yes, I'm in the black ... way black this year and will stay that way because most of those winnings are now my daughters college fund :)

www.facebook.com/.../set

Now put this in perspective and think that I don't use the form, I just "guess"... but I'll take my handicapping anytime over any ones. :)

PBP : Who provided the chart?  Some guy that watched the race...

wow! the fav killer was right....assmussen off the board...1/5 until gate opens..off at 4/5.......racing gods beat me! nailed by 30 to 1 shot at wire! funny game...oh well...nice place considering....

best comment ive seen lately!  jay! youre right! the clocker!

ded race 4...another crap race....dont like anyone...how bout al tee?#9   11 might be the horse....wp #9

ok.....is this real? my 8 to 1 shot nailed by 25 to 1.......really?  ha! pretty place payoff...but......wow...............pick any better? all the contenders looked to go off....and did..........geez

ok..race 5 ded....contenders 6,9,.......both look good....2nd prime bet of card...#6 ruston hero

ded r5 ..3rd...beat by two 11 to 1 horses...longshot day.....was about even, now slightly behind...

Don, If the previous comment didn't go through with the link to the nominations, Fear The Kitten was nominated to the Gulfstream Park Derby to be run on 1/1/13.

ded race 6....another crazy hard race....almost every horse is speed...weird stuff happens when thats the case....wild one #8 deadmansgun wp at 10 to 1

ded race 6....another crazy hard race....almost every horse is speed...weird stuff happens when thats the case....wild one #8 deadmansgun wp at 10 to 1

ded race 6....another crazy hard race....almost every horse is speed...weird stuff happens when thats the case....wild one #8 deadmansgun wp at 10 to 1

omg! another good selection gets 2nd...12 to 1 seconditis! excellent place payoff......killed another even money.....really picking good.....sheesh

ded race 7  another crap race lets go upset again #2 and #3 dutch!!!!

ded race 8 best wipeout of the day....#2 shared property.....big fav though....

Nice to see the 7 place in Delta Downs race 8.  

boom! ok 2/5 shared property wins....yea

ded race 9 #11 breezy knowles looks like cinch....but,last 5 brisnets 75/75/58/68/66...problems...2 months off might be good too....problem is, haldly anyone to bet in here...this field sucks....something doesnt feel right about this fav...#7 and#8 both 8 to 1.....dutch time? little more on #7 speed

ok...30 to 1 wins....i was spot on on the fav....30 to 1 on top of 50 to 1 on top of 15 to 1.......bombs away.....right idea...wrong horses...

ded 10th final bet...#9 passion lady...prime bet wp

Mr Denk I have a suggestion for guest appearances on That Handicapping Show. Have Ky Vet and Plod Boy Phil make their picks, and argue their case on the show.Both would probably like the attention for their own reasons,dont take this negatively just an idea.I think it would be an entertaining show.

KY VET

How's it going? Do you have updates regarding Zenyatta's half sister?

Pete

Congrats on your blog. Different views is what it's all about.

Nothing stands out to me at GP today.  May just watch for horses to play next time out .

CHIEF PICAWINNA

No way will THS replace Tom LaMarra on that show. Even with his handicapping record at

-$381.00 [which is closer to

-$500.00 because they haven't posted some of his loses] he is

co-producer of the show. He is absolutely the worst/terrible handicapper around. I believe he actually likes seeing his face on the computer. The Blood Horse should get rid of him on that show. If Pete was truthfull, he would agree. And I agree with your choices of Ky Vet & Plod Boy.

What P.B. Phil seems to have trouble understanding is that those of us who have been handicapping for a few decades on our own, starting without speed figures or other such tools, have developed methods that WORK FOR US and our particular brain patterns. Each of us probably have tools in our toolboxes that others find useless. That's fine; there is no one way to analyze a race that is ALWAYS the best way. Sometimes I throw up my hands in defeat over a race that you may think simple, and vice versa. I seem to do better with claiming races, while others of you can nail allowances regularly. Okay, we exploit our strengths and recognize our weaknesses and we all hit winners sometimes (if the jock stays on, or doesn't run into a blind switch, the horse doesn't fall down or get mugged, etc.). Everybody settle down.

Woodshade I wasnt thinking about replacing Mr.LaMarra just arranging the show so that they have enough time to let Ky Vet and Plod Boy Phil duke it out about their picks,they would probably need Denk and LaMarra present if the situation got too heated.

Don from PA/DE

My post dated 21 Dec 2012 10:54 featured Fear The Kitten as a colt to watch. I had a substantial across the board wager on Fear The Kitten in Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. I took my chances because I knew after that race I would never again get 80-1 on him. He closed from last to be 5th beaten only 4L. There was no ROI but I was a winner with his effort. He was a turf action and CD seems to be a good surfacr for turf horses. I do believe Barbaro was better on turf but the KD by a wide margin. I do not think he will be effective on the Gulfstream Park speedway. He will get 10F easily as he is stamina packed top and bottom.

Plod Boy Phil,

I am probably one of the biggest fans of the RAN/Mr. Prospector sire line. Presently this category is pretty wear in comparison to the A P Indy and Northern Dancer/Storm Cat lines. It appears Fortify and Capo Bastone are top colts from the Mr. Prospector line. Gulf Port, Little Distorted, Mountain Eagle and Boundless Heart are all nice colts that could have break through performances soon.

Footbridge is the latest addition to my RAN/Mr. Prospector sire line list. His sire Street Cry belongs to an elite category of Mr. Prospector line stallions. Mr. Prospector’s grandsons are the most successful sires in Kentucky Derby history. Unbridled leads as he like his grandsire by sired the winners of all three legs of the Triple Crown. Street Cry has sire horses that have won the Kentucky Derby, Breeder Cup Classic and Melbourne Cup. This makes a one of the top stallion in the world.

It’s not very often the pedigree on any horse reflects the sire and dam sire as Dubai World Cup winners. Both Street Cry and Dubai Millennium had big Time form ratings.  Footbridge is from the most successful sire line in Triple Crown history with 50 victories. He is impeccably bred, has shown ability and I do believe the sky is the limit if he run to his pedigree.

NB: Did I mention he was produced from a well-bred lightly race mares? Mares from this category are super producers of Derby winners.

MZ n CF thanks so much for your feedback, knowledge-based info! Don

Ranagulzion : I was looking over Pete's list and saw your first comment about Noble Tune and you had concern that he may not last more than 2 races when switched to dirt and yet, you put him on your list ?  Just wondering if you changed your opinion about his "brittle legs."  I had him in my BC tickets but have not put him in my list because he's a turf horse.  The new points system only gives points to turf races during the prep season which doesn't look like they have that many turf races next year (if any).  I'm not worried about his "brittle leg", just worried they haven't hinted at switching him to dirt.  I personally think they should keep him on turf, we need good turf horses.

Off to the track, going to play 3 tracks today, but not all the races.  Good luck to all betting real money at the races today!

SA :

01 :  3, 6

02 :  6, 9, 3

03 :  9

04 :  1

05 :  10, 11, 3

06 :  Have no idea whatsoever...

07 :  4, 3

08 :  4, 5, 6

09 :  1, 11

GP :

03 :  10, 8

04 :  9, 10

05 :  1

06 :  1

07 :  9

08 :  8, 2

09 :  9, 6, 3, 1

10 :  6, 1

FG :

01 :  12, 11

02 :  9

03 :  6, 2

04 :  1, 9, 8

05 :  1

06 :  2, 5

Pedigree Ann -

Thansks for clarifying the things I don't understand.

I began 'handicapping' races as far back as 1978,  well before the onset of Beyers being readily available via Crist's failed competitior to DRF.

I too spent the better part of 3/4s of a decade using soley running lines and running line patterns. I began making my own speed figures in 1985 at Finger Lakes using Beyer's methods,  before an expensive two decades of being a 'sheet wacko' - quoting Beyer from a Handicapping Expo in the early 90's as he shared a table with Len Ragozin.  

I did time making burdensome pace figs, researching pedigrees and even kept trainer profiles on index cards before the days of the PC.

Been there,  done that.

I'll continue to rebutt posts that I find fundementally incorrect by providing evidence based on the vast and accurate data we have compiled over the last ~10 years.

I don't think anyone got excited.  Is debate, be it heated, passionate, or otherwise, a no-no ?

Best of racing luck to all.

Chief

Do you really think Tom should remain on the show ? Looking at his record, one would think he would remove himself. He's not making the BH or himself look good.  I don't have anything against him personnally, seems like a nice guy. But you don't know someone until your around them for awhile. Again, must like seeing himself on the computer. Shame on the BH for keeping him there. I would like to see Claire on there. Much better looking too.

Racing Flow Bold Upgrade Blue Creek's late rush falls a long neck short in the 3rd at AQ.  Place money at 7-1 little consolation.

Just another loser posted here last night at 7:30pm

Woodshade I will be honest, I rarely watch the show, so I really dont have an opinion on keeping someone on that has a terrible record.If T. Lamarra co-produces he might have to pay someone else if they were to take his place,I dont know just guessing,then again we could have an informal vote among us bloggers for who we would prefer to see on there.Guest appearances would have to be made by web camara,so as to not have to fly KY Vet in to record the show.If Im not mistaken KY Vet lives in Kentucky dosent he?

re: THS

Without having ever seen the program - you know how I am about watching video - I think's it a great idea to have Pete take 5-7 mins weekly, or bi-monthly, to do a phone interview with a willing, long time Blogger at BH.  

Additionally, it seems requisite that those with the most posts on any thread in one week be assigned a number comparable to posts 11 and 12 in a dirt route at Gulfstream.

** the above opinion has been posted having never actually seen THS.  I might be wrong.

JayJay, great call with the #9 in the 7th at GP.  Couldnt believe the odds.  Went off at 11-1 after losing by a nose to the #1 who went off at 4-1.  

Amazed the jockeys filed objection on the #9 when they never got within a length of him.  Glad stewards disallowed it.  Cha Ching Jay Jay

race 2 sa...why is lemon hero big fav.....hate her.....longshot race...but ill go w #11

JayJay -

Adding to the financial profit,  you may take special joy in knowing that lone upgrade in the rce was the 3 Switchboard.

I had a hankering that weaning myself off of your posts would cost me money.

BoRL

SANTA ANITA race 2...lemon hero didnt hit board...winner winner! #11  at 9/2.........love this game!.....another big fav.i told you...nowhere!  by the way..lemon beat the 11 last time.....howd i know?

Kevin -

Great observation.  

Seriously.

A racing author by the name of William Scott wrote two books that I consider under valued in the world of handicapping works.  

While most of his methods are number driven,  there are a several excellent concepts that may prove valuable to Bloggers here that enjoy figure free handicapping.

The 'Tandem Rule' method he covered is based on the notion that when multiple horses ( two seems best in my opinion) exit the same race, a long term mentality dictatses that bettors seriously consider a wager on tne entry going off a considerably loner odds.

He had two stipulations:

1) the runner under consideration must finish 4th or better, beaten less than 4 lengths.

2) The shorter price of the two must be going postward as one of the top 3 favorites.  In other words,  the common race indicated that theb reace was competitive with today's competition.

really? s.a. race 3...8 horse is 6/5?   wow......good luck with that......1/5/7 contenders

Correction:

Bet the horse going off at considerably higher odds.

Sorry William.

really people?....even money? lost by 10? nowhere.....fav killer is good huh? didnt even play race...

JayJay in the 9th at GP your pick 9,6,3,1 if you play those under and over the favorite (2) you probably hit the exacta.

GP - Race 9

7 Batter Up:

very testing step up in company here considering it was conditioned claimers at Crc.

Impressed with closing run to win despite a very Speed favoring Flow last out

Two back closed wel despite Extreme Race for Speed.

Mary Zinke -

I do love the 'off at' information in race charts....

Considering RF subs had this one (AQ, GP, SA) as the lone upgrade in the 9th last night,  I'm pretty sure that there were no 'shut outs'.

BoRL

GP 10th

Flow players live to just the 6.

I don't go for comments addressed to me but meant for someone else.

SA 5th

Leave the 1 out of the win hole.

JayJay -

Big Wags........yes.

sa race 5...again? bad fav....the 3 sucks.....1/6/7 or 8 contenders....no selection

wow...fav won......knew it would happen soon.....good when i wasnt betting......i was wrong.....

Mary -

You are correct - thank you.

I clearly needed to mention you in the post,  rather than address it to you.

With due regret

No, plod, I just think threes a crowd, so I don't want to get in the tete a tete you have going.

sorry mary.....plod didnt get what you meant.....i got it....

santa anita....looks too easy.....#5 awesome year....small bet

Mary -

No negative thoghts intended,  ever on this BLog.

I intended only to credit you with having made the 1st mention of 'off at' times as 'proof of proper posting practices'.

awesome year! race 6.....it looked too easy! like a fastball right down the middle of the plate.....pro!

haw race 9 #2

JayJay -

GP Late P4 :  You / all / Me / all

Easy game....

tup race 9....fav #6 will go off form.....4/5/8/10  ill bet #5

had nice winner at gg race 6...pretty ride....thnx couton....santa anita race7..what am i missing? 1/3/4/5 are the contenders...starseeker ran as good as anyone 1st out for shereffs...now stretches out, he usually doesnt crank them...should be in the top 3....i guess 4 is one to worry about......choice wp #1 starseeker..5 to 1? why?

JayJay -

Brilliant, that

ok..ded...bombs last night....race 1 #8 wp elaines drama

gg race 7  #3 ribot belle show speed...closer today....wp

Just watched race replay of the 10th at GP.  I would recommend all put "Colorado Daydream" on your radar for next out.  If similar conditions, I'm betting.  

30-1 odds, never bet in either of 3 races.  

Made a huge middle move today into decent fractions to get sawed off at the rail and finish 2d to last.  Without getting cut off, he's in the top 3 at the top of the lane. Don't know how he finishes, but worth a look at what I'm sure will be long odds again.  

sa race 8...all i can tell you is the 1 horse is bad play....hes only other horse bet other than big fav #4.....just cant beat the fav.......#4 to win

wow.....totally wrong in the 8th.....been a while since that bad of race for me....

Interesting if nothing else.

Posted 12/26, 2:54pm

re: Santa Anita 6th

The 12 Belvin rates as the lone Racing Flow downgrade on the card.  

His debut received an inflated figure as he closed with the aid of a very Closer favoring Flow,  yet was unable to catch the winner.  It's worth noting that the winner of the race,  Distinctive Passion, was a bold upgrade going into that Nov 25th event, and will carry that top designation again when next seen,  as he recorded a rare 'vs Zip Win'.

ded race 2 #3 to improve.....wp

Perhaps tomorrow will be better.

Thanks.

sa race 9   derringer #12

ded race 3 #2 flighty uno

eeaaasssyyyyy! derriger 5 to 1?    just got rich!!!!!   me and tood schrupp!!!! winners!

Mary

Really? Never stopped you on another site.

fun..............ded race 5 #3 drifting win should run good....5 to 1 right now....worried about the 9 at 8 to 1..........pick #3 wp

JayJay one of your 4 picks to win the ninth at GP in your pic 4 came in second, but the 2 not in top two,I will run it back in the 9th at GP tommorrow with another from the same conditioner number 11 should be the favorite to come in first or second.

Not getting any good vibes in early handicapping for GP on Saturday.  

Race 7) #6 is only standout that I see offering value.  

Race 9) #8 depending on odds.  Gives up lots of experience but could be competitive at about 10-1.  

It was a very profitable day for me, I hit that tri in the 7th at GP  but I swear, I watched the race twice and saw a different result, I thought the 6 got the 2nd over the 3.   In the 9th race, the 9 was clearly the best horse.  I knew Rocco was in trouble when he stayed on the rail and he cost me my P4.  I think if they put him back in a similar type race, he'll win.

Kevin : I hope you played that 9 which from your post sounds like you did.  I too was surprised he went off at 11-1.   Did you play Dime Piece at SA R7 ?

CHIEF : Sounds like a good play, I had a quick look at the field, I'll probably play him with the 8 horse (Mott).

PBP : What's with the "You / All / Me / All " P4 ?  Not sure what that meant lol.  So you reposted your post from 11/25 but how come you didn't post that before the race was ran ?  Did you forget to tell your users what your analysis was on that 1 horse ?   I never saw any post from your regarding Distinctiv Passion until after the race or did I miss the "off at" times again??  Shouldn't you be reminding users of previous analysis ?  It wouldn't bother me (nor would I really care) if you wean yourself :)

JayJay -

I call it 'You can lead them to water'.

I believe I reminded readers of my failed downgrade of Belvin and of Blue Creek.

Subscribers have their Grades delivered the night before the races.  As I do every weeekend,  the Report is posted the next day on site.

Congrats on a good day,  proving once again that one can indeed make chicken salad out of chicken....

Racing Flow Bold Upgrade

Gulfstream

Race 8

7 Swagger Jack (8-1)

Going light today at GP as I still don't have much confidence in the races.

PIck 4 Race 2) 6,7/3,6/2,4,9/4,6

Pick 4 Race 7) 2,6,8,9/3,6/8,11/7

Win bets

7) 6

8) 3

9) 8

10) 7

Do not see "Fear the Kitten" entered at GS 1/1/13, oh well should be running somewhere soon

Lots of bragging about wagers! While my car was being fitted with an alternator on Dec. 28th, I visited an OTB that is close to the service center. I evaluated the 4th race at GP and wager $10 straight on a trifecta. The numbers were 4-8-9. The #9 was at 19-1. My bold wager returned $1,260. Not bad for a $10 wager.

On the Dec., 15TH I wagered $20 straight on an exacta at BHP on the Hollywood Turf Cup Stakes. The horses were Grandeur 8/5 and Interaction 29-1. My bold wager returned $1,060. I do not mess around with gambling as it can destroy ones finances. I go for maximum returns on exotic wager as I do not spend a lot.

Gulfstream

Race 7

Upgrade the 4 Holy Smoke (12-1) and the 7 Dominant Jeannes (4-1)

BoRL

Don -

Shouldn't Gulfstream Park be listed as GP,  not GS ?

Coldfacts -

Denomination aside, the 'perfection' only wagering style requires a unigue type of individual.

It seems to me that those that take on a 'be exactly right or lose' philosophy must be both financially secure and still be disciplined enough not to 'spread' trying to cash a ticket when entrenched in the inevitable droughts.

The upside is that when the bettor gets his perfect result, the requisite demand of winning players to maximize return with a winner is almost automatically met.

Pete : Any thoughts on this weekend's races ?

Agree on Coldfacts. I'm not good enough handicapper to bet straight anything and expect to cash tickets ever.  I'm usually just as confidant in my losing tickets as I am my winning ones before the races start.  So, good on you.  

PBP, why did you upgrade the #7 in the 7th at GP?  Taking blinkers off for the first time when the horse has been running well, scared me off that horse.  

Dominant Jeannes:

Last out made our 'Quick to Zip' move last time (the jockey moved too soon....) having made a pre-mature move to the lead in a Closers race only to be run down from behind.  Her previous three in the cycle were 'neutral' (they are what they appear to me)

The B-Off had nothing to be with the Grade,  though I do like it much better than B-On.  I do my job and let trainers do theirs.

Additionally,  not Flow related,

I also like the 9f dirt race to set up this 9f turf race.

Of course, the presence of the two more traditional handicapping factors without Flow support would make the horse unbettable for me.

Time to scratch Know More and Super Ninety Nine from your Derby watch lists? I think so. But, what about Distictiv Passion, looked awfully good winning yesterday. This horse can surely sprint, but what about if he can carry that speed. One to watch for sure. 3-1 was a gift.

Before you just discount Distinctive Passion as a sprinter, note that he is a great grandson of 4 very capable sires, Storm Bird, Alydar, Gone West and Greinton. Greinton for one ran a ntr at Hollywood for 10f in 158 2/5. So, put DP in my top twenty, somewhere near the top.

Predict -

Talent is talent.  Anything is possible with it,  little is achievabe without it.

DP has been on RF radar since the week after his debut.  I have no opinion regarding his ability to be as good or better going further.

PBP : I can make much more than a chicken salad, I can cook the chicken feet too.   I guess you can call it that but I'm wondering if you kept your "upgrade" analysis on the 1.  I find it interesting that you reminded readers here.   Still wondering what the "you / all / me / all" meant...

Off to breakfast.  I'll try Tampa Bay today as well.  Good luck to all betting real money at the tracks today!

GP :  

01 :  3

02 :  2, 6, 5

03 :  

04 :  9, 3, 6

05 :  

06 :  6

07 :  8, 5, 7

08 :  6

09 :  8, 4, 11, 2

10 :  7, 8

SA :

01 :  4

02 :  7

03 :  2, 3

04 :  no idea

05 :  3, 1

06 :  8

07 :  9, 7

08 :  this is a doozy…i forgot how to handicap the downhill turf at SA lol

09 :  9, 6, 10, 3, 8

SA, Daytona Stakes r.8, on turf: 1 Great Mills, 11 Ain't No Other, 6 Clubhouse Ride, 10 Wilkinson. If switched to the main track: 7 Capital Account, 11 Ain't No Other, 3 Comma To The Top.

Predict : Yes, I've jumped off Know More's ship awhile back.  I think the horse is capable of winning races but I don't know of O'Neill knows yet what or where he's capable.  At this point, I'm not confident he'll be effective on the dirt.  He might be a synthetic horse (Blue Grass ?)  but who knows.  I never had Super Ninety Nine in my derby list or watch list.

PBP : In your RF world, what would you call Mylute's run in the Delta Downs... wasn't that a quick to zip move as well ?  I just checked the splits for the Delta Downs race and they were going very fast upfront which I think makes the race a "Closers" race.   I'm intrigued as to what the difference was between DJ and Mylute's run.  It makes me wonder if you're just guessing with your analysis...or better yet, seeing what you wanted to see since you're not responsible to anyone for the "picks" you put out there.

"I'll continue to rebutt posts that I find fundementally incorrect by providing evidence based on the vast and accurate data we have compiled over the last ~10 years." - PBP

Does your method of analysis accurately foretell the performance of every horse every time? No? Then for some races, the tools you use are not as useful for predicting winners as those of other folks, who may have methods that are. Different, not 'incorrect.' Your analysis of the past race may well be correct, but unless the conditions of that past race are reproduced exactly, that knowledge may not apply to today's race.  

I am a mathematical statistician by training and I understand the allure of large databases. Most of the time it is too small a sample that is the problem in analyses. But large samples have their problems, too, especially when the data has a wide spread. Then there is the whole problem of correlation and causation being too often equated.

By the way, in the Belvin race, my methods identified the first and second as my top picks. In maiden races, I use pedigree analysis as a tool and Belvin, as a half to Apriority from a professional winning family, had an edge, IMHO. Doesn't always work, of course - no method does. No, I didn't bet the exacta - price too low.

SA;

Race 8 is off the turf, so far the 4,5,8,9, are now scratched along with the 2 who was scratched earlier.

Santa Anita race 4: Nana Beach breaks her maiden on 40th try?

Anyone on the Revolutionary bandwagon? Colt may have just figured that two turning is his gig. Nice blend of speed and stamina in the pedigree while posting 102 beyer. Needless to say he was green as grass switching leads multiple times down the lane. Ultra impressive with more improvement in the tank!

Pedigree Ann -

The statistical analysis is of the highest merit, done by a highly regarded numbers guy outside of racing. The fact that he has been a handicapper is what gives the product it's depth.

Our analysis of the past using relative speed is valuable 'today', is because we detect unseen bursts of speed at varying parts w/in the race.  With the exception of the horse that must get the lead (not that common really) a t'breds speed may be used at difffernt times.  The concept of Regression toward the Mean covers the rest.  We are willing to play upgrades knowing that when their Flow comes, and it will,  good things will happen,  often at over-layed mutuals for us.

I have never claimed to have a crystal ball, if fact,  I' have been on record here as saying a winning result does not mean the bettor was 'right',  anymore than a bad result indicates that they were 'wrong'.

As for Belvin,  I've often noted the inherant pitfalls of downgrading lightly raced two yr olds,  especially off a debut race.  My opinion was that Forest Boy had a better than odds chance of beating t5he favorite.  Wrong result.

BoRL

JayJAy -

re: Mylute - 'QtZ' ?

Good question,  but not,  it was not.

To qualify the runner must make a run towards or two the lead and get caught from behind.  The horse must absolutely beat the runner that set the pace, otherwise, the latter is the one that ran a better race.

The beaten lengths of the winner is the measuring stick by which all others in a race of merit are graded.

Again,  I have made this distinction in prior posts,  though I understand that the sheer volumes of my pontifications makes one less inclined to read any of it.

JayJay, good handicapping so far at Gulfstream.. See you got the winner and two straight exactas.  

I missed the 3 in the 4th. One of those in hindsight, not sure how I left him out.  

For instance,  in GPs 7th,  the 3 Flatter This is a downgrade from the same race as that one closed from a position behind the winner at the first two calls.  Far back was the place to be.

SA r-1, Starzilla, think he is going to be a good one. Name comes from a relative, remember Star Billing. 1 mile should be perfect.

JayJay -

Do not follow,  "kept your upgrade analyziz of the 1".  The analysis of the 1 Distinctiv Passion was contained in 12/26 comment posted here.  It was also available to everyone that comes to the site via the Recap done regarding Dec 1st Graded Report.

Predict -

Common ownership noted.

Otherwise, from what I can see, the two share only the grandsire on the dam's side.

I'd be remiss in failing to point out that Starzilla is a downgraded for us,  as she failed to close into a very favorable Flow.

Good and bad.  Good handicapping to leave the 2-1 fave out of my pick 3.  But I finished 2d, 3d, and 4th behind a 13-1 shot.  

sa race #3

comp...froze....meant to say 7 was cinch...3 to 1 in 3rd

Only one upgrade remains on each card at GP and SA.

On to Sunday.

BoRL

SA r-5, the 5,Teddy's Promise, Espinosa knows about the slop, has best horse, should win.

Floral Romance is something special.  Awkward start, went 6 wide on the far turn and still ran away in first start against winners.  

sa race 5.....its either #1 or #5....pink lollipops or teddys promise.....ill go w #5....but baffert scares me...

haw race 8....wide open...alot of horses can win...ill go w #10

re: Swagger jack

Neutral turf race last out (nice prep) followed back to back upgrades.  

Three back, he drew clear from a pressing position before getting run over by three in a Closer favoring race.  

Two back, he put in a sustained closing run while wide behind a very Speed favoring Flow.

Today, he sat a perfect trip behind what appeared to be a Closer favoring scenario. With plenty of speed in hand,  jock let him run to the lead and open up.

Upgraded runners catching favorable scenarios often make big forward moves.

teddys promise by 5......boom!

gg race 5 # 9

gg race 5 # 9

nice winner on swaggar plod.....knew you had it in you,,,

santa anita race 6.....lets try to upset w the 5 horse under review...improves today......wp

thanks

gg race 6 grab bag wide open....ill bet #3 crown over wp

my horse bk down...gg6th....fun...

Does anyone have a horse for FG 11th?

FG 11th:  upgrades both horses exiting the Extreme Race for Closers on Dec 21.

That said,  the 2 and 8 are multiple failures at this bottom level maiden claimer.

The 5 would benefit being behind a potential speed duel.

Pass for me.

sa race 7 dont bet the 2....she has problems......i'll bet #9 tizthetide...

gg race 7....like the 5 and 9.....wp big closer #5

probably crazy....but i never think commatothetop is sound...hope he breaks bad, drifts out....leaving big longshot #11 to run as far as he can....hit the board first 2nd....i make money...keying longshot top and underneath...aintnother!!!!!!

Thanks Phil I keyed the 5 horse in FG 10 and hit a nice exacta with longshot 12 horse.

Sandy -

Well done -

Was it an 'all exacta', or did you include the 12 since she had shown speed in her first try at the bottom ?

Notable that the 8 bid nicely from off the pace today before flattening - speed is a wonderfully versatile thing.

Just returned to find the news of Nana Beach's fall. Watched her run many times. Such a sad ending.

SUNDAY-Gp race 1-#9 ultimate choice

         race 2-#4 peekytoes

         race 6-#5 ss pinafore

         race 10-#9 proud soldier

aqu       race 3-#2 go olivia go

         race 5-#10 mywayordubai

         race 8-#3 rice to riches

         race 9 #3 parachute cowby

santa anita race1-#5 grannycallin

           race 2-#1 charmthemaker

           race 4-#2 scraparelli

           race 8  quraaba

make some money!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

R.I.P. Nana Beach.  

Racing Flow Bold Upgrade

Gulfstream

Race 9: 10 Exeter Road (10-1)

Has been on the wrong side of four straight Speed favoring Races on the turf,  including Extremes for Speed in the 1st and 3rd races back.  Note that the Nw2 win three back was an impressive 'vs Plod Win',  as he ran through the adverse Flow from back third of the field.

Flow players have been interested in this one since his upgraded race on July 7.  

Best of racing luck.

KY VET -

We share only one horse in common today based on the list you provided.

SA 42 Sciaparelli (7/2) - gets bold grade

Hi Phil I did use the 12 because she showed speed I used 5 horses for a 20$ investment and a nice profit.Thanks again

Koufax -

Nice.

Thought it was important to stress the difference between those that are multiple bottom level maiden claiming failures and those with one or no failed runs at the bottom.

Very basic, yet valuable angle to be more successful in that race condition.

Really Sad-

Out of the 430 posts, 281 have been made by 4 people. Jay Jay,

Plod Boy Phil, Kevin, [and the most

post] Ky Vet. Thats 65.3% of the post. Maybe try doing something with the wife, kids, grandkids,

or helping someone else. Get your nose out of the past performances, and get a life.

By the way Tom LaMarra lost "another" pick on THS yesterday. Thats probably about 30 straight. Blood Horse, get him off the show. He terrible as a handicapper.

Woodshed -

'get a life'......says the guy that just took the time to go back through every post to come up with this useful stat.

really ?

The conversation does not in any way prevent others from continuing on with responses to the original topic of this Blog.

I suspect that those figures will be drop precipitously now that the battle for territory has come to a gracious end.

Guessing I am not the only reader waiting for a new Topic from Pete.

Woodshade -

Imagine if you had more than one means of income, and that one of the sources was also a great passion. Would I be justified in telling you to 'get a life.' ?  

You have not a clue what any of us does beyond horses.

The criticism leveled above is far different from me making Kevin aware that I believed that his focus on bad results as more valuable than good ones, likely to be negatively impacting his process.  

Getting better means addressing the parts of one's game that are weakest,  not being content with keeping the strong points strong.

Please do not listen to him,(woodshade),I have never returned to a blog so much as i have this one!I cant stop coming back to read posts! These guys are great! insightfull...comical...and profitable,IF, one disects the information objectivly. Besides, this would make a great reality show, kinda like horse racing meets jesey shore.

keep up the good work guys!

GP, R-1, #8 Turbo Cannon

woodshade......i have the best job in the world....its like stealing....taking money from people that dont understand this game....i bought a couple horses this year...racing is the best game.....that was the funniest post ive seen in a long time.........no one was posting in these blogs so decided to make some posts.....i dont even post half of the races i bet, just random ones......nice car....nice house nice woman...nice horses(on the shelf couple more months).....pay attn.....you might learn something...

tp race 1 #2 do the charleston

gp....thought i had it! 8 to 1 got nailed by 2 horses at wire....got 3/5 winner tampa....

turfway starts off winner with #2 almost 3 to 1! boom!

wow...nailed again at gp...peeky ran great...beat by 17 to 1! 9/2! great place payoff.....but BOOM!!!! WINNER WINNER VIA DQ!!!! YESSSS!!!

KY VET -

Painful DQ for us.  Lone upgrade was the 1,  who set the pace of an Extreme for Closers in last. Nice trainer confidence with the big step up.

All for not.

Good result for you.

aqu...race #3 go olivia go wins!!! boom!....so far my 12 horse list...lost by less than length at 8 to 1.......9/2 winner...8/5 winner........

plod....post before race.....u have no cred if dont...pretty easy concept

tamp..race 3 4 or 8...both 5 to one...ill take either...

had nice 3 to 1 at gp...next aqu race 4 pletcher

Did not intend to mention the horses if it had not been DQed - now, it's just another loser.

I'm not looking for 'credit',  or to discredit you.  

tp race 3 #2 telususaythebetter wp

tam race 4 #4 putitinmypocket

woodshade :   What's even sadder is that you spent all that time, reading our posts and then... you took the time to COUNT THEM!  Now, THAT is sad.  It would maybe help if you post something worth reading, rather than counting people's posts and then whining about it.  :)

Off to the track, good luck to all betting real money today!

SA :

01 :  7

02 :  

03 :  2,5

04 :  10, 11

05 :  2, 4

06 :  6

07 :  10, 8

08 :  9

09 : 2, 9, 8

GP :  

04 :  9

05 :  4

06 :  6, 3

07 :  7

08 :  3, 4

09 :  11, 10

10 :  6, 3, 11

people.....aqu race 5 #10 mywaydubai..will fire today.....this is the freak of the day.....hasnt fired and already ran as fast as the best in here.....6 to 1.....wow....#1 is 1/2....worried about him....but load up

haw 1st got luck

wtf? dubai got left at gate.....unreal!

lost by a had!!!!!! unbelievable effort!!!!!!!!!!! robbed!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

tam race 5 how bout a longshot to hit board....#1

JayJay -

We have four DGs on the GP card:

4) 1

5) 2

6) 4,6

8) 3

BoRL

The exclamation from KY woke me up. SA race 8: Going with Dolly. 2,9,5,1.

as well as three DGs at SA:

5) 7

6) 6

7) 8

Way to go in the SA 1st KY VET.

No question that's a good result for KY fans.  Well done

re: Exeter Road

Much like yesterday's bold upgrade Swagger Jack,  this one took command with a devestating turn of foot to go clear as much the best.

Now,  that,  is what happens when runners on the wrong side of Speed favoring Flows find themselves in a race with some life on the front end.

Nice pick Phil #10 GP 10th for 18$ you guys are on fire and your making me money.

PBP.  Good call on Exeter Road.  

I actually liked the horse as well, for my own reasons.  When I saw your upgrade, I doubled down on him.  Good payout.  

Glad to hear.

Did anyone else notice the DD return on the Late 10-4 combination ?

A paultry $305 - an $18 horse to a $102 horse....really ?

Never mind previous......genuine nonsense.

Failed to realize the non-existdent 10th was from AG

doh

Had it right originally,  there was a 10th at GP

Point is that the number is awfully short - wheel guys rejoice.

really hard race santa a. race6 #5 trucial state wakes up for a peice...

I'm singled to the 2 Won Won

Good job with your Qaraaba pick, KY.  I am not happy about her beating Dolly,though.

Yeah, the DD payout at GP makes no sense.  I've always heard you take 1/2 of the $2 parlay to get you "in the ballpark."  I was expecting $450.  

Kevin -

The average Daily Double should be more than the natural $2 Win Parlay since there is only one take-out on the Double wager vs one on each of two win bets.

Take a look at a few examples of DDs between $50-$150.  

Racing Flow Bold Upgrade

SANTA ANITA

Race 8

4 Stanwyk (9/2):  been on the 'wrong side of three very Speed favoring Flows in her last four races. The lone 'neutral' race was her solid win on SA dirt.  

Turf or dirt is fine with us.

HOWS THAT FOR PRO PICKING?  i posted 10 races...12 but 2 scr......10 out of ten in the money!! 4 winners 4 close 2nds(mywaydubaiway was much the best) and 2 3rds.......whopping +27.50 for every 2 dollars bet...+275.00 for 20bet....or +2,750...200 bet.....which one do i bet on prime bets?....8 place payoffs= +39.70or +19.70...or +1,970 ..............and one of the 3rds was 8 to 1 lost by less than one length........................................................PRO!    hope you listened!!!!!!!!!

It was a very very profitable day for me but this one ticket made my day... CHA CHING!!!!  This is what I play for, bet small and WIN BIG... as in college fund BIG!!!  

www.facebook.com/.../set

You did have a nice day, KY, but I don't use others' picks, unless I already like the horse's chances myself. I can't hear sincerity through the black words on the white screen anyway. GL to you on your full card picks. You're doing well lately. I'm sticking to stakes races this year.  You need someone good to play with. Maybe they would without the leave the blog condition.

Congrats to Jay Jay, too. If my tickets ever deserve a fb page maybe they will friend yours.

Mary ever since I have been reading this blog, KY Vet has not been we shall say a handicapping wizard.I dont think its a coincidence that he didnt post for awhile after J Shandlers departure.This dosent seem like the same poster,but I will give him the benefit of the doubt.Pick one race a day from Aueduct,Gulfstream or Santa Anita and make your pick when I see it Ill make mine.

Chief, if I may make a suggestion, you should both post, trying for simultaneously, lol, maybe 5 mtp on pre-selected races.

Monday's value picks.  I don't play WPS, will play these in tri and supers.  Will probably play some of these on P4s as well. I'll see how their odds move at race time.

SA :

01 :  3

02 :  3

03 :  7

04 :  10

05 :  2

06 :  4

07 :  5

08 :  12

09 :  7, 6

AQ :  

04 :  1

05 :  2

06 :  2

07 :  5

08 :  1

09 :  4, 10

Mary the old version of KY Vet BD(before Denk)never took me up on any of the challenges that I presented him,I doubt the AD KY Vet does it either.

JayJay -

Not a FB person,  but do not need to see the ticket.....well done.

Today's DGs:

AQ - 1)2, 5)8

SA - 3)2, 3)5, 4)8, 5)2, 6)9, 7)1, 8)6, 8)12

BoRL

PBP : Why did you look at it then ?  

PBP : Why did you look at it then ?  Also, what's up with all the downgrades ?  I think it's easier to pick a horse that is not going to win vs a horse that will win.

I can post at least 2 horses for each race that I can guarantee will not win the race, I wonder if anyone would pay me for that.  In fact, I can switch my picks and say these are the horses that will not hit the board and we're' pretty close with the list lol.  The hard part is actually picking a longshot winner or even a 2nd place finisher... that's the valuable info.

Happy New Year everyone.  

Pete, thanks for this blog.  

Just reviewed my online account.  

Lost money for the year.  

Profit at Saratoga, Gulfstream and Louisiana.  

Biggest losses at Keeneland, Del Mar, and Woodbine.  New Year's Resolution, avoid poly track.  

JayJay -

Downgrades:

there are two main reasons why we belive that the DGs are as important as the Upgrades.  Since each is derived using the same principles we are capable recording the ROI for each over the long term in order to make comparisons between them.  Again,  since neither incorporates any handicapping factor,  except the occasional date limitation, setting a fact driven baseline is easy.

2) The nature of the pari-mutual game dictates that leaving vulnerable, short-priced runners off of horizontal wagers is advantageous, provided that one does it correctly often enough.

KY VET -

Indeed - a very good day for your horses.

Happy New Year everybody!

I appreciate all the comments and sharing of insights.

Purple Egg is in the GP Derby tomorrow. I am staying on board.

Coldfacts,

I'm adding Gulfport to my Derby watch list (influened by yur post dated 21 Dec 2012 10:54 AM). I agree with you that he's a talented colt and I like his workout report and his pedigree (especially the quality of his Grade 1 winning dam, Dream Supreme -daughter of Seeking The Gold out of a mare by Dixieland Band and carrying the blood of immortal, Secretariat, 1956 champion 2YO, Barbizon and Epsom Derby winner, Never Say Die). His sire Unbridled Song has thrown some very fast and talented colts over the years but they usually dont last the Triple Crown series. Gulfport seems to be an ultra-talented one but we'll have to wait 'til the Holy Bull to find out more. I have a very good feeling about this colt and may be getting ahead of myself here but I'm going to poition him as my #2 behind Overanalyze for the time being.  I also like the fact that his trainer Dale Romans is vry high on his popects. More anon.

I was of the opinion that days of 2YOs starting 14 times were over. Alas! Joshua’s Comprise has proven my opinion wrong. He has made 14 starts and will make his 15th on January 1, 2013. Interestingly his sire Comprise made 58 starts and his dam Princess Alert 32 starts.  Could the toughness of the parents account for Joshua’s Comprise capability to make 14 starts at two and be still around to make a start on January 1st? For his toughness I think he merits a wager in the Gulfstream Park Derby

JayJay -

What did I 'look at' ?

I did scan the posted lists to look for commonality and DGs.  It's an added bonus to have insight on how the donwgraded selections of good handicappers perform. I did not look at actual horses, accept those we shared (rare) or those that were DGed.

I did not go back to check individual results, except in terms of how we fared.  Thus, I am still unaware of the particulars of your good fortune.

BoRL

PBP : Huh ?

My good fortune was a 14K payout for a $14 High 5 ticket with a 45-1 horse singled.

So a couple of questions :   How did you fare and what is your definition of "good handicappers" ?  I'm curious because I only know one handicapper that was so obssessed with the splits and times and can never pick a winner unless it's the heavy favorite.  Knowing your world relies on splits and times I'm curious what your definition is.

Jay jay....You are trying to say you are good at what? You dont go on anything, so....you are lucky? we get it......any actual knowlege isnt what you are about....horses times dont matter....nothing....we get it.............you cant figure out, knowing when good horses run bad can be of value?  what is your point? youre really just the guy that brings no substance.....at least plod has a science.....you are a dart thrower...

wow...i know i cant post that i just bet #9 at 10 to 1 sa 6th.....so i wont....it doesnt count....

New Years card for GP is really really tough. Race 8 could be an "All."  

Biggest bet may be against KK in race 5; I like the #3.  

Also like the #3 in the 10th.  

tup race 9 #1

darn...another horse fired.....but got 2nd,,,at 6 to 1......nice run....they all have been firing..borrego babe 2nd

JayJay -

You are my definition of a good handicapper.

BoRL

Kevin -

Good call on the winning DG wager -

Perhaps a parlay to the 7)1 is in the cards.

advice kev....stay out race 5 gp tues....pletcher horse looks like winner

turfway race 8 #4 st.louie slew wp

Tuesday's DGs are as follows:

GP - 3)1

SA - 5)4, 5)9, 8)3

DG Correction -

Santa Anita

DG the 8 (5-1) in race 5,  not the 9

santa anita race 8 #8 candy trophy wp

gg race 8 best bet of day #4 kindofnaughty

sheesh....candy ran good too....2nd again......my horses almost always run good....

tp race 9 upset...#2 miss gigi wp

re: Stanwyk

Tons.

What do Swagger Jack ($17.00), Exeter Road ($18.00), and Stanwyk ($7.80) all have in common ?

best bet wins!!!!!!!!! gg race 8

Kevin -

Only the DGed winner keeps some of us from being Pic 4 live - smarty guys used the 'all'.

The Racing Flow Graded Report for Monday, posted on the site this morning (9:42am ET) as an End of Year thank you to all site visitors,  is live to just in 1 in the Late Pic 3.  

The two upgrade exacta in the 7th suitednicely, as did the Daily Double ticket to Stanwyk.  

tp race 10...come and catch me....#6  NEON MOON wp

tp race 10...come and catch me....#6  NEON MOON wp

ugggg!!!!! 2nd again.....man! fire every time.......oh well.....i always run good....#6 tp nailed at wire

Racing Flow Bold Upgrade

Gulfstream

Race 2

6 Retrieve (3-1): no chance in last two behind dominant winners of Extreme Races for Speed.

For those that have lost track with all the postings,  three of the four Bold Upgrades I've posted beginning Friday have returned $17, $18, and $7.80 (Swagger Jack, Exeter Road, and Stanwyk). Schiaparelli failed in a curious race on the wet main track yesterday.

KY Vet :  What substance do you bring ?  You guess when the horse will wake up, that's guessing at its best.  For all the form reading that you do, you end up guessing.  You know what they say about coming in 2nds... you're the first loser every time.

Unlike you, I don't claim to be anything on this blog.  Like I said, your win % isn't anything to brag about but hey, if you feel like you need to put that out in a blog to make yourself feel better...

JayJay -

Admittedly curious after reading the details of your big hit,  I do need to ask,  how does one go from listing the 2,9,8 horses here,  then end up hitting a 5 horse vertical wager keying a 47-1 shot,  with none of the three selections hitting the ticket ?

If I have something confused regarding the dates (I see a $21K HF at SA on Sunday),  then I beg your pardon.

In the words of Johnny Carson,  "that's wacky, wacky stuff".

PBP : It's called taking a shot.  What post here is what I look at the night before.  But as I've said before, I play the odds and I bet on longshots.  I can because I don't go crazy on my bets.  I'm a .50 trifecta and super player and it's almost always a $4 tickets.  I took a shot at this 4 horse and played it with the 3 favorites, and I picked another longshot to throw in there.  That's how I hit my first high five back in 2010 which paid 18K.  The P5 (5 races) I hit at Tampa Bay last January, I singled a 60-1 shot to start with.  When I saw how much this HF paid, with a 45-1 and 25-1 in the 3rd hole,  I thought the payout was wacky... wacky stuff.  I honestly thought I was the only one that hit the high five.

I'm perfectly happy with my 11K which will keep me in the black for a long long long long long long time.  As for the payout, you should look at the details of the ticket, it has the date in there, that way you don't get confused.

JayJay -

I have never been to facebook. That will almost assuredly be the case when I am buried.

I know nothing about the wager, but am willing to bet it's the closest thing to a horse racing lottery ticket as there is in the game.

Couldn't facebook be free advertising?

"I don't own a tv."  LOL

I do watch tv, just thinking of something else that makes me laugh.

I have a couple of Henry's maidens on my watch list :  Star Sight and Amerigo Vespucci.

JayJay 25 Dec 2012 1:00 PM.

Saturday’s Grade 2, $200,000 Jerome Stakes for 3-year-olds at Aqueduct. entered are Siete de Oros, Amerigo Vespucci.

PBP : You make it sound like it's a very very very hard thing to do comparing it to a lottery ticket.  I'm happy hitting two of those types of ticket this year :)

tcc : Thanks, I have him on my watch list.  I'm holding off getting excited about my watch lists.  I was really excited about Inmyfathersimage but then he went after Revolutionary lol.  I really like Amerigo though and I'm glad they're not running on the inner track... let's see how he does.  Unfortunately, this race is not one of the prep races so he won't earn points but it'll be good to see him run.

Palace Malice had another workout but still not entered in any race, hope he's okay.

JayJay;

Though the Jerome does not offer qualifying points to the Kentucky Derby, it kicks off a lucrative program for 3-year-olds eyeing the Triple Crown races. The Jerome leads to the $200,000 Withers on Feb. 2, the $400,000 Gotham on March 3, and the $1 million Wood Memorial on April 6.

With regards to Gulfport there are some obvious positives and negatives. You are correct his sire Unbridles Song is associated with some very soft horses that normally do not stay in training long enough to make the Derby field. Of those that have made the Derby field, Eight Bells remain the most successful with her second place finish. She was produced from a Dixieland Band mare. I do believe Dunkirk and Mission Impazible were top 10 finishers.  Gulfport has a high cruising speed like the filly Eight Bells and needs only to be trained to carry it. Gulfport’s sire belongs to the most powerful force in Derby and Triple Crown history and this enhances his chances at the big dance if he can get there.

His dam sire Seeking The Gold has not featured as the dam sire of a serious Derby contender in years.  He has sired some brilliant fillies/mares but none have really distinguished themselves as top class broodmares for Derby and Triple Crown prospects. Heavenly Prize, Flanders, Cash Run, Catch The Ring, Dream Supreme and Pleasant Home are some of the top females sired by Seeking The Gold.  None of their foals to date have features as serious Triple Crown horses. Can Dream Supreme breakthrough for her sire? One can only remain optimistic. The brilliant Dubai Millennium a son of Seeking The Gold was the broodmare sire of the winner of the 2011 Dubai World Cup.  You never know!

Coldfacts,

I don't see it. I like Star Contender and Itsmyluckyday for the top honors with Purple Egg, Undrafted and Almost English to complete the tri under those two. I felt bad about kicking SrQuiscayano to the curb. I think Joshua is in over his head today. Enjoy the race, it will be a fun watch and you have proven me wrong in Florida before. But no matter how I try, I cannot see Joshua even hitting the board here.

JayJAy -

Not the point I was trying to make.

AQ 5th: 6 and 8 make the grade

Back to full days at work tomorrow and family is back from vacation so won't be on here as much in the coming weeks.

My big bet of the day is a Pick 3 at GP

Race 8) 3,4,6,8,11,14/2,5,7/3,7

Hoping to get the 3 home in the 8th and 10th for this to pay out big.  Also have big WPS bets on both.  

Also have a big win bet against KK in the 5th; going with the 3.  

Ranagulzion

My dear colleague you are not sharing information as is required for the process of evaluating the Derby class of 2013. Is there any acceptable reason why you did not inform me about Whiskey Romeo.  This colt has the most natural speed of any 3YO seen to date. He is a son of Forestry and as we all aware when Forestry colts show speed they normally carry it over a distance of ground i.e., Discreet Cat and iron horse Shackleford. His dam sire is the Danzig stallion Belong To Me who was also the dam sire of champion 2YO & 3YO Lookin At Lucky. He is unbeaten in three starts.

Whiskey Romeo reminds me a lot of Smarty Jones who also broke his maiden at the same Philly track.  His trainer specified that he would be off for 30 days after his last race. He is fast and resolute in his gallops has to be one of the most exciting amongst the unbeaten colts heading into Derby Preps. You tried to hide him but I caught you. If my accusation is incorrect, check him out.

PBP,

8 is scratched in the 5th.

PBP,

Scratch that, I mean, 6 is out. 8 is in.

Kevin-

My ticket shares the 8)3 and the 10)3...looking forward to the latter

We are 'none' in the 9th.

Good luck - like to see you hit it.

El Kabong,

I agree with your assessment of Joshua Comprise. On paper his numbers do not compare to most in the field. However, he is no stranger to beings thrown in at the deep end. After a 2nd place finish in his third maiden race he was placed in a $100K stakes where he finished 2nd at 19-1. He returned to maiden company in his next race and finished 3rd. His next three starts were all stakes i.e., Dr. Fager, Affirmed and Flourish Pleasure. He finally broke his maiden in an Allowance race. It was back to stakes in his next two starts i.e., In reality and App Jv Turf. This colt has only one victory in an allowance race and has contested six stakes races. The 30 days between his last starts is longest span between races. He is battle tested and as tough as nails. These characteristics could get him on the board despite his low numbers.

Coldfacts,

Whiskey Romeo will not make my list because apart from having Storm Cat very close up on the sire line (this tanslates to stamina limitation more often than not) , he's really bred to be a sprinter/miler type on the dam side. I know that Shackleford will be your reason but its not that simple pal.  

PBP :  Yeah, I know what your point is.  It's tough to handicap huge longshots on top and have the discipline to use other longshots underneath but that's how I play and that's how I hit the big payouts.  Appreciate the fact that you think it's tough, I'm sure you probably will pick one some day and your users will feel exactly how I feel (if they follow your pick.)

SA :

01 :  3

02 :  4

03 :  6, 9

04 :  9

05 :  7

06 :  4, 11

07 :  5, 14

08 :  4, 10

09 :  6, 14

GP :  

06 :  1, 7, 6

07 :  6

08 :  11, 14, 8

09 :  4

10 :  3, 7, 5

PBP,

I'll box my 2 and 7 with your 8:).  tri and exacta in the 5th, AQ.

JayJAy -

Again, missing the point.

Using the prior posts and facts as stated, I find the handicapping prowess associated with cashing such a ticket comparable to that required to hit the lottery.

You have the score as your reward - the bottom line for gamblers.

Really do not believe comments regarding the IQ of our subscriber base is either valid or appropriate.  

aqu... race #3 slam dunk....#4 rgypseygold....one horse race....

Retreive was surprisingly horrid.

Historically, short priced bold upgrades are not the bargain their counterparts are.

Enjoy the respite - back on the weekend.

Best in 2013

kevin...sale back your #3 in 5th aqu.....trust me.....

What's the difference between the Grand Slam races (Four races) vs. a P4 ?  I see it at AQ but it's minimum is a buck.  I wanted to play the late P4 there.

unreal trip in 4 horse race! #4 got nipped....want rematch....every horse firing...

tp race 2 hard race...#7 wp jabbawakki

gp race 3 #5

PBP : LOL, okay I have to apologize, I was stringing you along.  I knew exactly what you meant but wanted to see how you'd react to what I posted... lol.  In any case, I'm happy with my handicapping, and I'm sure you're way satisified with what you're giving your users.  I'm starting to agree with CHIEF, I think you and KY Vet would be a very good show on THS.  

KY VET :  You're really good at 2nds...  you should play PLACE all the time and hold back on the WIN bets.  Leave the WIN bets to PBP ;)

aqu race 4 # 3 gee linz

easy!!! gee linz!!! boom!!!!!!

JayJay -

It's three horses to show or better in the 1st 3 legs, then the winner of the feature.

tp race 3...#2 desert doc wp

gp race 4 #4 wp wild lively

biggest bet of day...desert doc at tp eassyyyy!!!!! boom

GRAND SLAM

The overlays come when there is at least one betting favroite off the board in the 'show' legs since three horses are capable of carrying the ticket forward each of the opening three races.  

Get that to occur and a nice anchor it may prove to be a cheap way to finish a horizontal to the card's feature race.

gp live lively....3rd fav....wins! by 9? ha! guessing? no, knowing!!! i can keep busting you guys all day!!!!!!!!! deal!!!!!!boom!!!!!!!!

what the heck....lets go upset...race 5 aqu wp  #8

what the heck....lets go upset...race 5 aqu wp  #8

tup race #1   #7 deputy innovator wp

tup race #1   #7 deputy innovator wp

tp hard for me to see #2 run bad.....#2 gentel moment wp

Retrieve is in PP lines for several later runners on the card.  The poor showing could add some insight.  

Alive to the #3 the early Pick 4 at GP.  Should pay big if we can beat the 1-9.  Ticket cost $3.  6,9/1/1,4,6/3

tup 2nd again at 4 to 1 deputy.....

gp race 5,,,#1 kaui katie in romp....kev, hope you sold ticket on 3

fired again tp...2nd #2....2nd alot lately

Yeah well, that didnt work out.  Should have taken the easy Pick 3 money.  

katie by 8...........any questions?,,,,,,,,,,

maybe im nuts.....but isnt #2 race 6 a cinch?  sweet sway....

rediculously easy......sweet sway by 12 lengths....wasnt even fav,till i bet....hammerd down with min to go......boom.....

Kevin -

I saw only one remaining runner from either race exited by Retreive.  

That is Bad Hombre in the 6th,  whom, of course, is on my ticket

very tough race #2 tup...lets upset w #7 mag bridge wp

wild one race tp 5th....#3 chelian dream wp

PBP:  Also the 7 in the 7th.  In my notes last night, I wrote to watch retrieve for impact on later card races....guess in my mind there were more common races than just the 2.  

boom!!!!!!!!! tp race 16.80 winner!!!!!!!! by 4.......do you know how much i win?  pro.........

aqu race 7 #2

aqu race 7 #2

2nd again at aqu race #7....fired

2nd again at aqu race #7....fired

Correction on my GP race 7 - I picked Black Onyx on this race, not the 6 horse, used the wrong number from equibase entries.

gp race 7 #3 bradster looks like a good thing.......is it that easy?

GP R7 : Going to box 2-5 and put those on top for trifecta.  I do think the 5 wins this easily, hopefully I'm right.

aqu race 8 ...2 is 1/5....just think #8 singlet will give good race......wp #8

bradester wins easy!!!!! yes this game is too...

race 4 tup...upset #6 wp

sa race 2 # 6

sa race 2 # 6

gp race 8....#14 kittens dumplings...wp

I'm not gonna make any money today if favorites keeps winning... I think I'll go watch TV instead lol.

tup race 5....#2 master demand

sa race 2 #2 wakes up!!!!!!!!

sa race 2 #2 wakes up!!!!!!!!

how ya like me now?  sa race 3 #2 flys home at 7/2...bet down by me.........cha ching!!!!!

gp race 9...think #5 runs good....alot of speed in race wp5

how bout 7 lengths? easy winner 3 to 1 steal!!!!!!!! you people think i'm playing? you wanted to see the pro prove it huh? all day! every day!

yes #5 wins by 7 gp race 9.....sa race 4 they only betting 4 and 9, and 4 will run off form......guess that leaves 9........lookout for a price horse......

sa race 5 #10 lit the bet

bad ride gomez...van brit lost by 1

tp race 9 #6 corleone

gp race 10....how does 7 run bad?   wp #7 atlantic dream

gp race 10....how does 7 run bad?   wp #7 atlantic dream

gp beat by 20 to 1 firster....2nd....another horse fires......good pick

tup race 7 #1

lol #1 tup fires closing 10 l in stretch but loses by 1/2 length....good try...

sa race 9.....great day...just a little action bet #12 holiday rose

gg race 9 big fav #7 looks great on paper...dont like him....#2 the pick.......wp

As Don King used to say "Only In America"Who would have thunk a vetenarian/professional gambler/prolific blog poster on BH.

What happened to the point of this blog?  I keep coming back, seeing all the posts, and hoping there will be something more than weird numbers, crowing, whining or scratchin' and spitting'

I never thought I would say this about what used to be Shandler's blog but I.m bored with this.

(Also I really don't like focusing only on post position numbers ... Can't you use a horse's name?)

Never mind

I will guess not a veterinarian.

Mary Z.---I will most definitely guess not a veterinarian.

mz----I know. It looks like a bunch of jumbled code from some of John Nash's delusions.

That's how all live chats go, and how the guys at the track talk about their wagers by numbers, not names, just like how you tell your wager to the person who prints out your ticket.  After you talk this way for a while, you get used to it.  I still say the names though, since I call that the girl way.

Hey Karen, how's it going?  I'm feeling a little lost at this blog now so I haven't been in touch for a while.  I miss all you guys.

And just for the record, I, mz, am not one and the same as Mary Zinke.

I so swear.

Ranagulzion ,

Storm Cat is a grandson of Northern Dancer who won the Derby and Preakness. His dam was sired by TC winner Secretariat. What Stamina limitation are you referring to? Storm Cat sired Tabasco Cat who won the Preakness, Belmont and was 2nd in the Breeders' Cup Classic. He sired Cat Thief winner of the Breeder Cup Classic and Giants Causeway who was 2nd in said race. Bluegrass Cat was 2ND in the Derby. The list goes on and on.

Did you watch his three races? He is not a sprinter. He has a lot of pace and his stride a pattern suggests he is the type that will run opponents into the ground. In 2nd start he recorded a time of 1:11.70 for 6F in hand. His next start is likely to be in the Hutcheson Stakes.  Mr. Pletcher will have his hands full to lower the colors of this colt.

I'm good, mz, thanks. Yes, this is certainly a different cast of characters, but I guess it's due to the changing focus of the blog. Ted/Bob almost never visits anymore.

Ranagulzion : I don't understand how you look at pedigrees and breeding.  You tell me Dixie Union will be represented and will most likely have a derby winner (who from looking at the paper is a true miler.)  You tell Coldfacts that Whiskey Romeo can't win because he's by a sprinter/miler ?  So when it comes to Dixie Union, the racing gods will smile and get him to produce a stamina horse because... you said so ?  Coldfacts latest posts seems to indicate that Whiskey Romeo does have some stamina from his breeding.  I like reading you and Coldfacts banter but I have to say, Coldfacts seems to be a little bit more consistent and also true to his posts than you are.

I'm still wondering if you changed your mind about Noble Tune's "brittle legs" since you put him in your derby list.

tcc : The Jerome looks like it's coming up tough, just saw the lineup...  Vyjack, Long River, Mudflats and a few others I've never heard of.  I like Amerigo's chances in this race but I don't know what kind of ML he'll get.

JayJay,

Amerigo Vespucci was whipped by Whiskey Romeo twice. His performance in the Jerome will give additional insight into the just how good Whiskey Romeo is in comparison to the Jerome field.

My guess not veternarian anymore because of substance abuse inducing grandiose delusions.

Lol, Chief.

I lost a TOUGH one on Scarlet Strike yesterday at Santa Anita. Thought I cashed a big win bet at the wire, but the photo came back differently.

ok.....back to the topic.........number of 3 yr olds fast enough to win the derby...........ZERO!!!!! Which means someone will improve!       NEXT TOPIC......

Pete not adding insult to injury,do you wear glasses?I know we have a retired(by force) veternarian but dont think an optometrist post on the blog.

It must be time for a new blog.

Wow, 616 comments with at least half of them from KY LOCO. I don't have time to look through and read any valuable comments.

KY LOCO,

Could you try and limit yourself to 2 or 3 comments per day?

Anyway, I did manage to come up with a short list of 3 year old colts and fillies to watch for in 2013. I was very impressed by Valid's maiden victory on monday at Laurel. Even though Fortify shipped to Dubai after the B.C., I still view him as a KY Derby threat. Itsmyluckyday was razor sharp yesterday, he is a dangerous horse moving forward at Gulfstream.

colts:

1)Fortify 2)Frac Daddy 3)Itsmyluckyday 4)Flashback 5)Hear The Ghost 6)Long River 7)He's Had Enough 8)Gulfport 9)Bold Dance 10)Valid

Pure Fun is set to make plenty of noise on the KY Oaks trail. Summer of Fun is a turf horse with plenty of upside to her, looking forward to her 2013 debut. Dawn's Charm was scary good in her latest start, I'd look for her in the winner's circle next time out too.

Fillies:

1)Pure Fun 2)Summer of Fun 3)Dawn's Charm 4)Cue The Moon 5)Sign

KY Vet-

U r correct in saying that none of these 3yos have run fast enough to win the Derby, yet.

The trick is figuring out which ones have the tools to develop into Derby horses.

Chief-

I was with 3 people, and I was the only one who bet Scarlet Strike, but all 3 thought she got up at the wire.

Tough beat considering the trip. Prime win bet at 5/2. Thought she was best.

Forbidden Apple-

I touted Itsmyluckyday in his last three starts. Was happy to see him take a step fwd yesterday in the GP Derby. He runs with a relaxed energy. He'll probably crack my top 20 next time.

Little Distorted was a big disappointment.

Coldfacts : Yes, I'm well aware of those two losses, however, those were at sprints.  Let's see how Amerigo does stretching out, I don't know if he will get better or not but I like him to do better going longer.   I'm adding WR to my watch list too so I'll know when they stretch him out to see how he does.

tam race 4 #7   6 to 1?    wp armachan

Coldfacts,

Regarding the stamina of Storm Cat ofspring, you mentioned the three exceptional standouts: Tabasco Cat, Cat Thief and Giants Causeway. The list does NOT go on and on, and you should rather think about the hundreds of Storm Cats that, like the progeny of AP Indy were touted year in, year out as Top Derby candidates with nothing to show.  Their popularity in the market place and sales ring has not translated into Triple Crown success. I'll state categorically that Whiskey Romeo will come up short on stamina for the Derby like Shackleford did or worse. His broodmare's pedigree has a distinct sprinter's bias.

Jay Jay,

My analysis of pedigrees may be a bit too deep or sofisticated for your comprehension and I don't mean that facetiously.  I look at bloodlines of both the sire and dam going back further than the first five generations and my conclusions have served me pretty well over the years.  This is not meant to pour salt into your wounds but I got it right about Union Rags  ...I wont let you forget that my friend (LOL).  

yes....its wide open for the derby......my point is....its way way too early.......all other 3 yr olds in pool 1 looks like the play......so far....its not just look for best horse, its how they come up to the race...

Pete,

The second 1/4 was lightning fast and Itsmyluckyday was right there. That was an extremely fast race and I'm somewhat shocked that he ran such a big race. It brought back memories of Big Brown storming down the stretch in his Gulfstream debut. I hope this is not another case where a horse is purchased privately and then turned over to Pletcher or another high profile trainer.

Did you get to watch Valid's race on monday? I worked at the GreenTree stables this past summer and fall, I kept telling myself that Valid might be a good one.

Where can I find a list of all horses nominated to the 2013 triple crown?

Coldfacts,

Regarding Storm Cats' pedigree you said the following "Storm Cat is a grandson of Northern Dancer who won the Derby and Preakness. His dam was sired by TC winner Secretariat. What Stamina limitation are you referring to?"

I wish to respond by saying that you tend to focus more on the paternal side in your pedigree commentaries.  I look equally at both paternal and maternal sides.  In the case of Storm Cat, his dam Terlingua, although sired by Secretariat, was produced from the out and out sprinter Crimson Saint, which has stained most of the Storm Cats with speed and not classic distance stamina. Terlingua herself was not effective beyond a mile. I do believe that this is common knowledge among most of the pedigree experts.

I thought Scarlet Strike got her head down for the win, too, Pete. I'll add one big pal thought so also, so that now makes 5.  I see comments about this barn's use of blinkers. I don't ask why they make the change, since they know what they're doing. Just another guess, and my one posted last night was not meant meanly, just an observation, possibly Scarlet Strike's small cup blinkers are for her to focus during the race, not to speed her up.

ranag......exactly what sire does the list go on and on............this derby science is flawed......why? too small of sample....you people make me laugh...your point i guess is storm cat is bad breeding....you people use these "facts"...but it take 1 good horse to come along, and change the percent a huge amount.....most people know storm cat is great sire....this sire that sire,,,,,the top sires arent hard to figure out people......you argue over stupid facts, bad data........HOW ABOUT IF A HORSE CAN RUN? how about the athlete......"oh this horse can run a 118 beyer, but his breeding isnt good...........really really stupid........

6, now that I re-read your comment Pete.

tamp race 5.....2 horses 3 and 4....both running bad....both might wake up.......wp #4

well....right and 3 wins....4 lost rider........nice 4 to 1.....more tix on 4 though.....good picking

Ranagulzion :  You didn't answer my question about Noble Tune nor Whiskey Romeo.  I'm just curious at those two contradictions you posted.  UR didn't win the Derby and he didn't win the Triple Crown, enough said.  :)

update...3 at tampa dq'd for tripping my 4......ran good though

KY Vet : News flash! Tampa R5 - neither the 3 nor the 4 hit the board, "good picking" ? You post so many "bets" here that I think you don't even know what track or horse or number you're actually betting.  Keep up with yourself man.

tam race 6....2 is even money.....hard to see #7 sweet ballad run bad.....wp#7

I didn't know there's racing today until KY Vet started posting.  I'm starting to believe in KY Vet... that this is his day job... lol.  He's the only one I know that bets races every day.

Oops, my bad.  The 3 did win R5, but man, he took out the 1, 2, 4, and 5 at the start.  I think that jockey earned an early (unpaid) vacation this year lol.

tam.race 8   best bet of day....#9 angelofdistinction.....has run has run worse 3 straight times.....wakes up today ........wp...7/2

BOOM!!!!!BOOM!!!!! # 9 best bet of day nails #6 on wire!!!! absolutely flew home!!!! i'm pretty good.....huge bet!!!!! day off?    dont think so........start believing!!!!!

KY Vet,

Evidently you dont buy into the pedigree philosophy of judging the quality of horses ...no problem, however that doesn't mean you should be dismissive of those who do. In case you didn't realise, the thoroughbred is founded on pedigree science.

Jay Jay,

I have two sons of Unbridled Song on my Derby watch list, Gulfport and Noble Tune. I have promised myself that if neither make it into the starting gates on the 1st Saturday in May because of leg injury I'll treat all Unbridled Songs in the future like I do Storm Cats and AP Indys with respect to the Kentucky Derby ...I'll not consider them live shots anymore. This is the cut-off year for Unbridled Song in my book.

Regarding stamina, the broodmare family of Noble Tune is definitely deeper in stamina than Whiskey Romeo and he has already convinced me by his Breeder's Cup Juvenile Turf performance that he stays.

Note the top message on my twitter feed. There is a link to Free BRIS PPs to every 3yo that has odds at the Wynn in Vegas. Awesome.

Forbidden Apple not surprised you have chosen to give a moniker to Kentucky Veterinarian(Ky Vet)for short.I am guessing but thats probably why the regulators in Kentucky forced him into retirement.One more thing when they find out where Ky Loco resides, they will send the wagon over there so he can be fitted for the white jacket and take him away in his new attire for the new year.

Jay Jay,

Union Rags was finishing with a furious drive at the end of the 12 Furlongs test of the champion aka Belmont Stakes after you'd branded him a miler.  I see you're now suffering memory loss ...conveniently (LOL).  I'm not shy to say my pedigree analysis works ...maybe not 100% of the times but not far off.

Chief Picawinna,

Take a look at KY LOCO's 9th of 10 posts today. He made #9 in race 8 at Tampa his best bet of the day at 4:03. Post time for race 8 was 4:09, so what good is it to post 6 min. before the race went off? I think he makes his picks after the races go off.

Pete,

Thanks for the bris heads up. It's bare bones, but it's good chum in the shark infested waters of January. Bon Appetit!

Looking forward to the Sham. Should be a good gauge for Manando. He sure looked professional last out and I will go on record right now, he will not set the pace. He'll be a stalker. I just hope he has the mojo to excel at the next level. I know our pal will give him the downgrade but I'm giving him two thumbs up and a round the world back snap.

? No.

Ranagulzion : lol at "furious".  I believe Union Rags IS a miler at his best.  Just because a horse wins the Belmont, does NOT mean they're a classic horse.  It does NOT mean they have stamina.   Remember Da' Tara ?  He won the Belmont in 2:29 and by many lengths, and he beat Big Brown!  In your world, Da' Tara must be a genuine classic distance horse LOL.

Let me remind you again, the chances of the DNA of a 5th or 6th generation still having an effect on the horse today is almost non-existent.  But hey, you can claim to know about pedigree using 4 or 5 generations back because there's nothing that will prove it right or wrong.  Your claim of Hyperion being the reason UR got 12F is the most ridiculous statement I've ever read in a blog, wait... anywhere and everywhere lol.

Jay Jay,

Believe me, you're exposing your ignorance on pedigree maters talking about Union Rags being a miler even after the Belmont FACT...making me feel sympathy for you.  Anyway its all fun.

lets have some perspective....union rags never ran a beyer over 100...doesnt that mean anything to anybody? many of the belmont stks in the past 15 yrs were very weak.....da tara was alw horse....yes there are reasons why they have been weak.....mostly attrition...the best horses resting, hurt,,,,,,whatever....who did union beat?   i thought so........i know making sense means nothing to alot of people on here.....but please.........

The question mark was for the time stamps/post times thing. It's math, not black magic. Sham: Goldencents, Mananado, Den's Legacy, Dry Summer,Greeley Awesome, Dirty Swagg.

2,6,1,4,3,5

ok.....someone explain to me what posting 6 mins before race, has to do with cheating.......people are so strange........thanks for the compliment

mary....youre picks look flawless....on paper those top 3 look much the best....i believe dens legacy may run off form a little....2/6 way back to 3rd....

ded race 5 #3 little comache wp...4 to 1...

charlestown race 4....try to beat the 2..hes 2/5.....#6 figpen wp

Forbidden Apple one of the things about Ky Vets posts that I remember were his proclamation that Uncle Mo would win the classic by open lengths and in the same post that he was declaring himself a professional gambler and his professing his very profound understanding of the sport.After that I knew where he was coming from.Also he never picked a colt to finish 1st or 2nd in any of last years TC preps or races.How do I know because I would check his pick so that I didnt have the same number in 1st or 2nd in any keyed exotic wagers.His best finish was 3rd in the Preakness with Creative Cause.He was a contra indicator for the exacta in any TC races for 2012.

ded race 6 ...5 or 6....ill go wp #6 5 to 1.........ct race 5 wp #6

believe what you want....uncle mo was the best of his generation.....but i didnt like him in classic.......so now what?  ill keep taking your money all day............keep watchin....

darn....im good....5 wins at 6 to 1....6 lost 2nd by a ns.....good good picking....but lost money.....happens.....couldnt decide.....chose wrong

ded race 7   5 horse 1/5? ok i dont wanna pick #1 but i will...wp baja oklahoma

ded race 7....3/5 #5 nowhere....but got 2nd at 5 to 1.....good pick again...close to alot of money.. 5.60 place only solice

ct race .....guess i take even money on the 5

ct race 6 #5 wins by 6......even money a steal...

KY Vet,

Your constant harping on Beyer figures is a one dimensional type of reasoning ...shallow and sometimes hollow.  Union Rags unfortunately didn't stay around long enough to run up his Beyer figures but several of his vanquished oponents did that to his credit ...Creative Cause (your favourite), Dullahan, Paynter etc. Speak easy Mr Vet.

Jay Jay,

Do you know what a "flash-in-the-pan" is?  Da Tara was one such, oherwise called a one race wonder in his Belmont victory. By seeking shelter from Da Tara in defending your defamation comments on UR's obvious stamina, you compound lack of understanding of pedigree matters with denial and dishonesty my friend.  Shame on you.

hate these next 2 races....small bets wp....ct race 7 #1.......ded race 8...#1 off 6 months

beat a head at ct....7th race

ded race 10.....worried about the#2    but ill pick #7 mud brute wp

ct race 9 #9 wp

figures...went off the 2 at ded....7 got left at gate...2 wins.....sometimes go off winner

2nd again...9th ct

Ranagulzion : LOL, can you please remind me what UR did that makes him not a one time wonder ?   He won the Belmont... what else ? Oh yeah, the G2 FoY.    Besides the Belmont, how many times did he win a race over 1 mile ?  How many  graded races did he win ?  Wow, he's a beast.  I'm in denial... lol right.  You know, it's okay that you were so wrong about UR, it's not the end of the world.   I look at his record which are facts, you're still seeing him in a fantasy / virtual world where he's running marathons all day... wake up my friend :)  I do agree that it's shameful I compared him to Da' Tara, he won on the lead and held off legitimate horses that year, I'm ashamed for even comparing him to UR.  My apologies to Zito and his owners...shame on me.

Now let's move on to this year... who's your guaranteed Derby and TC winner ?  Any Hyperion horse this year ?

On the subject of UR he was another that was great as a tyo but didnt improve very much,and he won a very weak Belmont race.He was defintely one of the most overhyped colts in recent years,Uncle Mo was a lot better than UR.On the breeding angle comparison of those two, check out the stud fees for each I havent checked but would be willing to bet UMs is higher than URs.

Pete,

I am always critical when knowledgeable thoroughbred enthusiasts endorse the views of the KV. You likewise will not be spared my criticism.  

“K Vet, U r correct in saying that none of these 3yos have run fast enough to win the Derby, yet.”

I would appreciate your answers to the questions below:

Does the above endorsement extend to the top 2YOs now 3?

How fast exactly must a 3YO run to qualify as potential Derby winner?

How fast did Derby winners Mine That Bird, Giacomo and Charismatic run as 3YOs?

How many of the fastest 2YOs have made their 3YO debuts?

What is the point of stating that the second stringers and late developing 3YOs have not run fast enough to qualify as a Derby winner?

Bellamy Road won the Wood in track record time. It was probably one of the most impressive Derby prep seen in the last 10 years. His 1:47 and a bit clocking would no doubt represent the requisite speed for a potential Derby winner. He did not hit the board.

Fast enough and good enough should not be confused.

Hidden in the litany of posts that are irrelevant to the theme of the blog are some from knowledgeable and bright supporters. They may be hard to find but your time would be better spend choosing wisely the ones to endorse.

CHIEF PICAWINNA,

“UR was definitely one of the most overhyped colts in recent years”

You cannot be serious with the above assessment. Uncle Mo was regarded as the next coming of Christ. He had a Facebook page; his owner was given guest blogger’s privileges; it was projected that most trainers would hide the 3YOs whenever he was nominated; the purse for the Wood Memorial was increased to $1M to attract him; his owner wanted a match race with Franke.l I could go on and on. Union Rage was never held in such high regards. The crown for most over hyped colt in recent years goes overwhelmingly to Uncle Mo. It’s not even close!  

Coldfacts-

The Beyer par for the Derby is 108. None of these horses have run that fast, yet. (certainly not around two turns)

The BRIS par is 107. GP Derby winner Itsmyluckyday (who I've liked for a while and will be in my new top 20) has hit that mark going a one-turn mile. I touted him a couple times in the Locksmith Smartplays, finally cashing on him earlier this week.

Here's what I said when I picked him in the Delta Jackpot: "[Itsmyluckyday] moves with a very controlled, efficient motion, and he has been begging for more ground. He finally got it last time in the Foolish Pleasure Stakes at a mile and 70 yards and he produced an easy, 3-length win."

I am not overly reliant on speed figures in my handicapping, but I do think they are useful in assessing the development of young horses.

Ranagulzion,

“I'll state categorically that Whiskey Romeo will come up short on stamina for the Derby like Shackleford did or worse. His broodmare's pedigree has a distinct sprinter's bias”

There might be some merit to above. However, Shackleford was produced from an Unbridled broodmare. Unbridled won the Derby and Breeder Cup Classic both contested at 10F. The mare was supposed to enhance the stamina limitation of Forestry.  Shackeford won as far as 9.5F. If my recollection is correct Forestry did not win beyond 8F but was a determined runner up in the 9F Haskell. Shackeford could not be considered as genuine 10F horse. The $16M Green Monkey was a Forestry colt out of an Unbridled mare as well and he never won a race.  

The Forestry colt Discreet Cat was produced from a Private Account mare. Private Account was a son of the stamina laden Damascus.  Discreet Cat won up to a 9F. These two classy colts sired by Forestry were products of broodmares that belong to stamina laden lines. Both would struggle to get 10F in good company.

Whiskey Romeo’s dam sire Belong To Me was essentially a sprinter with most of his stakes races contested at 6F. However, he is the dam sire of Lookin Ay Lucky who won the Preakness and finsihed 4th in the Breeder Cup Classic. Lookin At Lucky was sired by Smart Strike who like Forestry was effective up to 8.5F.

Breeding speed to speed does not always result in stamina limitation. Brilliant thoroughbreds are the ones capable of sustaining early or late speed over various distances. Whiskey Romeo’s running style suggests he is ratable. He has energy efficient strides and this is significant for sprinters stretching out.

An effortless running style can carry a classy stamina deficient thoroughbred a long way.

Chief---Uncle Mo and Union Rags both stand for $35,000.

Coldfacts---Nice posts this A.M.

"Hidden in the litany of posts that are irrelevant to the theme of the blog are some from knowledgeable and bright supporters. They may be hard to find but your time would be better spend choosing wisely the ones to endorse."

Well said, Coldfacts.

I, for one, checked in today to see if anyone had any comments on the Sham and instead get the usual spam of after-the-race picks (why would a real bettor be spending his time posting picks on a blog two minutes before the gate opens?) by you know who.  The site host should consider exercising some restrictions here.

Ranagulzion,

“I'll state categorically that Whiskey Romeo will come up short on stamina for the Derby like Shackleford did or worse. His broodmare's pedigree has a distinct sprinter's bias”

There might be some merit to above. However, Shackleford was produced from an Unbridled broodmare. Unbridled won the Derby and Breeder Cup Classic both contested at 10F. The mare was supposed to enhance the stamina limitation of Forestry.  Shackeford won as far as 9.5F. If my recollection is correct Forestry did not win beyond 8F but was a determined runner up in the 9F Haskell. Shackeford could not be considered as genuine 10F horse. The $16M Green Monkey was a Forestry colt out of an Unbridled mare as well and he never won a race.  

The Forestry colt Discreet Cat was produced from a Private Account mare. Private Account was a son of the stamina laden Damascus.  Discreet Cat won up to a 9F. These two classy colts sired by Forestry were products of broodmares that belong to stamina laden lines. Both would struggle to get 10F in good company.

Whiskey Romeo’s dam sire Belong To Me was essentially a sprinter with most of his stakes races contested at 6F. However, he is the dam sire of Lookin Ay Lucky who won the Preakness and finsihed 4th in the Breeder Cup Classic. Lookin At Lucky was sired by Smart Strike who like Forestry was effective up to 8.5F.

Breeding speed to speed does not always result in stamina limitation. Brilliant thoroughbreds are the ones capable of sustaining early or late speed over various distances. Whiskey Romeo’s running style suggests he is ratable. He has energy efficient strides and this is significant for sprinters stretching out.

An effortless running style can carry a classy stamina deficient thoroughbred a long way.

I am in favor of the free market of ideas and don't like deleting posts.

But I agree that endless strings of picks, mentioning only horse #, with little reasoning involved, is a questionable contribution (especially considering the lagtime between entry and publication).

KY VET, for our sake and the sake of your bankroll, please consider a little selectivity.

Rusty Weisner,

I have not fully evaluated the Sham field but I think Goldencents is a classy colt. He has tactical speed that he sustains over a distance of ground and if he has made additional improvement since his Delta Jackpot win he will be tough. Manando may pressure Goldencents on the lead and they may compromise their respective chances of victory. This might set up the race for a closer. Dan’s Legacy is an interesting entrant. He has returned rather quickly off his 3rd place finish in the Cash Call Futurity. He was 5th in his only dirt start and seems to be better on turf but who can question Speedy Bob’s decision? Dirt Swagg has been refitted with the blinkers but his sole effort on dirt was just horrible. I think a live outsider is Greeley Awesome a recent impressive winner of a maiden claiming race. I would never underestimate a son of Mr. Greeley even from the claiming ranks.

Coldfacts :   "   An effortless running style can carry a classy stamina deficient thoroughbred a long way.  "

The question is whether they can do it competing at a high level.

Amergio Vespucci is 12-1/ML IN Jerome. Wow! Looking to see this one run big this weekend. I LOVE THOSE BABY HENRY's!

Pete: re your 12;04 post --  Hallelujah!!

I find that a little pruning sure helps my roses bloom later in the year

JayJay,

Any colt that records 1:11 and bit in hand can perform at the highest level. He fell on his nose in his last start and recovered  to lead comfortably and win going away. This colt has exceptional cruising speed but is not a tear away sprinter. His strides have never shorten in any of his races. He will get a distance of ground easily.

Just saw the ML for the Jerome and I'm not feeling too good about my Amerigo lol.  He's 12-1 and two recent maiden winners are 3rd and 4th favorites (Long River and Mudflats).  I guess they are running the race on the inner track, is this like the "winter" track at Aqueduct ?  I don't bet Aqueduct races too much because of this track lol.   Street Life won two races on this track last year and looked like a monster winning them from way behind but couldn't duplicate it outside of this track.   Amerigo, not having run on this track will be my play - he might like the track and blow away this field :)    

Sham : I'm sticking to my Cashcall horse, Den's Legacy.  His cashcall was a typical Gomez ride, coming from way way behind (kind of reminds me of Lookin At Lucky).  I don't think he'll be that far behind this time.  Den's Legacy with Goldencents and Dirty Swagg underneath for the tri.    Dirty is intriguing to me, he didn't break that well in his only dirt race, this being his 2nd and a small field, he might actually get a chance to run.

Coldfacts : I'm familiar with WR, I watched his last two races because he beat my horse twice in those races lol.  Your posts to Ranagulzion about his pedigree kind of made me really anxious to see him go long.

Coldfacts : "  Any colt that records 1:11 and bit in hand can perform at the highest level. "  

I don't think that's true at all, just seems you're generalizing too much.  I think you need to consider who they were running against when they went 1:11 and bit in hand.   It's really way too early to say that WR has been beating good horses, for all we know, the horses he beat are all duds including Amerigo.  If Amerigo shows some promise in the Jerome then yes but again, just because a horse went fast and in hand doesn't mean they can carry that to a classic distance and at a high level, IMHO.  Trinniberg comes to mind.

Pete,

Many thanks for your perceptive on the Beyer/BRIS threshold for potential Derby contenders. I do not pay attention to Beyer figures as they are too many variables that impact performance. It must not be forgotten that steroids is no longer allowed and consequently times have been impacted.

Are you aware that Union Rags and Shanghai Bobby recorded the same time of 1:35.55 for their respective Champagne victories? The times in the BCJ 2011 & 2012 BCJ were 1:44.44 and 1:44.58 respectively. If Union Rags and Hansen were legitimate Derby contenders, Shanghai Bobby and other 3Yos recording similar times should be viewed as contender accordingly.

I wagered on Giacomo in the 2005 Derby. He entered the race with only a maiden victory to his credit and couple of place and show finishes in stakes races.  His Beyers were certainly not at the threshold you specified. However, what was blatantly obvious was the fact that he had to be ridden shortly after the  start of each race to stay within striking distance of horses with superior cruising speed. Despite being ridden all the way in all his races, he still found extra in the stretch to close of the leaders on the speed favoring tracks of California.  The fairer 10F strip of CD was ideal for this colt who gave the impression that he would run forever. His $100 plus dividend brought immense joy to my soul.

There are only two colts that I have seen that gives me the impression that they will run forever and they are Long River and Fear The Kitten. Neither has come close to the Beyer/BRIS threshold you highlighted. Viewing a horse’s sustained energy level in route races is a great indicator as to whether it will be effective at 10F with 126LBS. Beyers/BRIS ratings are no substitute for the eyes.

JayJay,

Alpha also won two stakes on that track.

ColdFacts,

Any idea where Whiskey Romeo is going next?  The superficial Smarty Jones similarities (Phi, Stewart Elliott) are already intriguing enough.

JayJay,

Bet your Amerigo after he finished runner-up twice to ColdFacts' Whiskey Romeo!  Show some faith in ColdFacts if nothing else.  If he wins he tells us something about the other horse.  Problem is he circles the field (what is that a sign of in a developing horse?), which I would guess is a liability on Aqueduct's inner track. But it seems like the ML favorite, Vyjack, is vulnerable, having won big in slop in a four-horse field and now facing some potentially classy competition.

people....questioned my pro ability...i think ive proved over and over, this past couple weeks....play after play, that i truly am a professional handicapper....people said prove it, post your pick before the race, and i did.....i made a ton of money playing random races....posted a list of my real prime bets one time,,,,4w 4seconds 2 thirds after 10 races...i made almost 3 grand......people asked me to prove it.....i did....so well that people thought i was cheating......instead of doubting, get on board, and make some money....i tried to save kev money.....................point made........ok lets talk horses....

Coldfacts.....you apparently missed the point....no 3 yr old has run fast enough...point being, its way, way too early....and to everyone else....THERE IS NO BEST HORSE! meaning,horses are good early, then go off form....or vice versa....who was best last year? when? Wouldnt the horse you like in the derby, be the horse you like in the belmont? thats your deal, looking for well bred stamina horses huh?   IS THIS NOT A VALID POINT?

giacomo and da tara won because no one ran good.....most longshots can be explained by slow times...drossylmeyer too....those races were very slow....its not rocket science....minethat bird and charismatic ran fast.....you asked.........any other questions?

Gary Stevens is Back!!

What a surprise. And he returns riding for an old Northwest Trainer, Jim Penney, one of the smartest trainers we've had over the years up here. Best of luck to both. I sure hope Dr. Dedomenico's facility has made a monster out of Gary. At 50, he'll need to be to keep up in this game. Coincidently, I ran into Gary and Randy Moss while leaving the Breeders Cup on Friday night, they were heading back in as I was leaving. Chatted briefly and wouldn't you know, he never breathed a word of this. Bloggers can not be trusted with juicy dirt.

jay jay....please save money on dens legacy......not a good chance sat....

coldfacts.......why no mention of the best bred horse in the jerome? youre the breeding guy....yet youll come up with something wacky....tell me who im referring to..

bellamy road was way....way better than giacomo.......why is it, when horses go bad, they were not very good...............horses go bad...

I like Notacatbutallama in the Jerome.  He looks like the best, so long as he likes the dry dirt this time.  Just watched some replays of his races. He might be a favorite turf colt of mine if the surface switch doesn't work out.

JayJay,

You are correct regarding the suspect level of competition Whiskey Romeo has faced. The same could have been said about Smarty Jones when he started. If he were either a Todd Pletcher or Speedy Bob colt he would be highly regarded. Despite the lack of competition there is something about this colt that appear to me. He is one of many on my list.  His natural speed and the way he cover ground just reflects class. He could very well turn out to be a pretender when he faces quality opponents. I would be disappointed as I think I know a good horse when I see one. The Hutchinson will be his first serious class test.

KY Whatever,

Not cheating, I was only pointing out that it does no good to post a few minutes before post time. How could anyone possibly get on bored with your expert picks with such a short notice? How do you find time to post 20 times per day?

The best bred distance horse in the Jerome is Long River. The problem is accepting the 5/2 morning line on an unproven horse.

What is your expert opinion of Ultimate Eagle in the San Pasqual on saturday?

And your expert opinion on Goldencents in the Sham?

Based on Long River’s last performance it appears he has turned the corner. VyJack is fast and will have to be caught but I will gladly take 5-2 on Long River at his expense.

I expect that a 3YO colt is going to wake up and show up in the Jerome ...he's a son of Hard Spun and a half brother to 2009 Whitney winner, Bullbay, called Vegas No Show. He is bred to stay and if he wins this he'll make everybody's top ten or Derby Dozen because he should be at a stage of rapid improvement. Draw a line through his Remsen no show.  

Coldfacts UKM was hyped more than UR but he was undefeated as a tyo and UR wasnt.UM was defintely better and Karen if they stand for the same price I am very surprised because Mo was a lot better.It could  possibly be beacause of his health issues.Remember Mo had health issues but even with that he accomplised more than UR. Part of URs appeal was his trainer,but UR doesent come close to Matzs Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro.Thats my opinion and anyone can argue it but it wont change what I think.

Rusty : Forgot about Alpha, but yeah, Alpha didn't really show much during the preps,  I'm still not sure how good Alpha is.  I'm just wondering if there's something about this track that works well for some horses.  I don't know what kind of track it is at all.  I'm betting Amerigo purely on instinct that he'll like the added distance.  I don't necessarily want Amerigo to tear it up during the preps, just want to see him progress and move forward in each race.  

Coldfacts : I have no doubt WR would be on everyone's list if he were trained by either of those two but that's the beauty of finding the hidden gems.  I like Amerigo because I think he'll do better going long, the end goal is the derby but finding the horses that will win the prep race is part of the fun.  There's only one Derby winner and there's a whole lot of prep races.  I'd like to find the blooming 3 yr olds that has value to win the prep races.  Spotting the winner of the Derby this early is almost impossible.  Take pride that you found WR first, he might turn out to be a really good one (or prepare for Ranag's wrath if he turns out to be a dud.)  I'm tracking quite a few myself, mostly still maidens.

KY Vet : Now that you "proved" you're a professional handicapper... what now ?  I asked you this before, do you need everyone to acknowledge you're a pro ?  I mean, I don't get it why someone would spend all the energy and money to prove they're a pro... in a BLOG.  

Also, can you promise you won't bet Den's Legacy ?  You won't change your mind and dump thousands on him at the last minute ?   Da' Tara won the Belmont in 2:29, UR in 2:30.  UR wasn't a longshot.  

Lastly, people talk about pedigree because at this time of the year, there's not enough races to see how good these colts are.  While it's "boring" to you, I like reading peoples insights and opinions about them.  You don't need to pop a vein on your forehead reading these comments, you can just ignore them.

Chief---I'm not arguing which colt was more hyped. It's just that their respective stud fees aren't really a secret. I'll find a couple of links for you.

www.coolmore.com/.../uncle-mo

Here's the Lane's End fee roster.

www.lanesend.com/.../roster-fees.html

Jay Jay,

LOL!!!!

"You don't need to pop a vein on your forehead....."

Well said. :)

yes...i think mary zenkie got it right...goldencents...manando....look like only 2 in race....and yes i missed coldfacts posting of long river....might be hard to beat vijack....longriver will run well...san pasqual hella tough..cant fault eagle..cant fault much....except jacito is gonna run bad......alot of speed in there, cant help your eagle....

San Pasqual: Ultimate Eagle, Coil, Tres Borrachos, John Scott.  I think Hoorayforhollywood is in this to take out UE, but UE can beat him to the lead.

Mary Zinke,

I'm with you on Notacatbutallama in the Jerome. Mudflats and Long River to complete the tri.

It's Manando's coming out party at SA. Very talented son of Bluegrass Cat that should get better with more distance. Although he is cutting back a bit here, I still think he will hit that gear in the lane to carry him past Goldencents.

My race of the day, GP Race 5.

Maiden 35,000 Turf 7 1/2 furlongs.

#8 Here Comes DRZ and #9 Full Cry are the ML favorites in what looks like will be wide open race.  

Here Comes DRZ has average Beyers and 9 races over turf without a win; against similar company.  #9 Full Cry is dropping from MSW, but was claimed by a trainer with a worse win percentage and stats, an angle I never play.  Also taking blinkers off after showing no early speed last race....not sure of that intent.  

I'm going with #5 Dr Goldfarb.  Up in class after good 3d at 1 1/8th.  Tired at 7 1/2 furlongs earlier in Dec, but maybe the recent stretch out gives him more in the lane.  Comparable beyer figures and good tomlinson numbers.  6-1 morning line.

Will bet WP at odds of 4-1 or higher.  The 3 and the 12 are the other horses I'd play in rolling exotics.  

Karen TY for the links,I wasnt implying that you were going to argue who was most hyped between UM and UR.I thought someone would argue  that they disagreed with my opinion that UM was the better between those two.I still believe in the US, because of the hard dirt tracks,training methods, and the sheer amount of colts that are on the KY Derby trail,most of the good tyos will not make the starting gate in the Derby.If they make it in the gate they will enter as a colt that has already peaked at this stage in his career.Last year 9 colts entered the gate that were in the G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile the ONLY one to crack the top three was Dullahan in 3rd.

I am not a great student of the English language but I try to write with clarity to avoid ambiguity.

“number of 3 yr olds fast enough to win the derby...........ZERO!!!!! Which means someone will improve ”

The above quote suggests that 3YOs need to run fast or attain certain Beyer/BRIS ratings to win the Derby. This is not the case. There are many factors that determine a Derby winner and speed is just one of them. Mine That Bird, Giacomo and Charismatic and many other long priced Derby winners did not run great times as 3YOs prior to the Derby.

Algorithms was probably the best 2012, 3YO on the east coast. He recorded a time of 1:36.17 in winning the Holy Bull.  Give a second for track conditions and adjust his time to 1:35.17. Algorithm was undoubtedly a top Derby contender with his HB time and potential winner. Quality Road won the Fountain Of Youth in 1:35.01 and his time was considered fast enough to be a potential win the Derby.

Itmyluckuday recorded a time of 1:34.39 in the Gulfstream Park Derby. How can it be concluded that no 3YO has run fast enough to win the Derby with a comparison of the times recorded by Derby contenders Algorithms & Quality Road?  When is 1:34.39 considered not fast enough to be a potential Derby winner? The average mile split the last 10 Derbies is 1:36 and a bit.  

We are all entitled to formulate opinions but I do recommend that they be based on cold facts.

May be Gary Stevens will be developing one of Pete's horses. That's why he says he's returning to riding: to develop horses while riding selectively and remaining in his role as an HRTV and NBC racing analyst, but not to ride $25,000 Maiden Claimers on a daily basis. That will be an interesting prospect to have an active rider as an HRTV analyst especially if he's riding Graded races again and involving himself in the Triple Crown and Breeders Cup contests.  I was wondering why I had not seen Gary recently on HRTV with Lafit. Now I know why. He's been in the gym and working horses. His weight is down, but will his knees hold up after 13 knee surgeries ? He says he's good for awhile. We'll see.

The sport needs a boost from a professional and classy guy like Gary Stevens. He is clearly on my top 5 riders of all time list. I'd love to see him pick up a KY Derby mount or possibly head to Dubai and take home some oil money.

Uncle Mo is by far the most hyped horse in my lifetime and i've been watching races for a touch over 30 years. But hey, he did beat the immortal Boys At Tosconova. He's bad for racing when he got so cranked up at 2 and then his career went bust after that. I must keep in mind that some folks love that type of training, use them up early and off to stud!

It's hard to put a line through the Remsen for Vegas No Show. He showed nothing and then finished like a turtle. Why is he going to run big tomorrow?

Alpha might be better off in Dubai, he shipped out with Fortify and Emcee after the Breeders Cup. I'd like to see Alpha try a turf race, he might love the green. And the same goes for Emcee, he might be a lawnmower. I think Emcee is pointed towards the Golden Shaheen dragstrip race.

I can not see any horse beating Ultimate Eagle or Goldencents. They are both most likely favorites that can be keyed in any exotics.

And i'd take a win bet on Long River at 3-1, he should run the speed down late.

I agree that it will be good for the sport to see Gary Stevens riding again, even on a selective basis. He was always one of my favorites. I was sure he would be the next Triple Crown jockey--maybe there is still a chance...

JayJay,

No shame betting Amerigo V. at these odds, and I like this angle of two runner-up finishes to W:  betting Amerigo V. amounts to making a bet on the potential of the other horse.  I also like the odds on Vegas No Show, a respectable known quantity with a lot of appearances under his belt.  Long River has the obvious upside, and McLaughlin took Alpha this route last year, but he doesn't have enticing odds.  I think I'd take Long River with either of these in an exacta. I'm not betting, though, so glad I don't have to decide.  

Despite the ML I think Long River will wind up the favorite at 2-1 or lower.

Kevin,

I like it when people dope out picks and post their thinking.  I'm going to check in later to see how you did.  Good luck!

Congratulations, Pete--with a whopping 721 comments I'll bet this has proved to be the most popular blog in a long time. The infamous "She lost get over it" article garnered a little over 1,000 comments if memory serves correctly, but of course that's water under the bridge.

Unlike others no doubt far more passionate that I who try to keep track of every single promising colt (if I tried that I'd never get any sleep, burn out my short-term memory and probably go crazy), I tend to try and have a little more fun at it; so, right now I've been thinking about recent trends of Derby winners and how those trends should be applied to prognosticating this year's race so far out. First off, recent Derby winners have had more Classic-oriented pedigrees (shocker): Big Brown by a Danzig son out of a Nureyev mare, Mine That Bird with 3 consecutive Classic winners in his sire line, Super Saver by Maria's Mon who already had one Derby winner, Animal Kingdom who's by was a Grade 1 winner at nine furlongs and out of Dalicia (whom I believe was a group stakes winner at 12 furlongs) by Deutsches Derby winner Acatenango, and I'll Have Another by Travers winner Flower Alley out of an Arch mare. Further, with the exception of Chip Wooley (Mine That Bird), the winning trainers have been veterans--Dutrow, Pletcher, Motion, O'Neill. And third, while some of the recent Derby winners were more frequently raced than others, all were managed with the Derby seemingly in mind and not allowed to peak in their 2yo year. With that in mind, here's a few newly-turned 3yos which have caught my fancy, in addition to meeting all the above requirements that I think will help to identify legit Derby contenders:

Mountain Eagle (Birdstone-Gulch Legacy, by Gulch; Nick Zito); Footbridge (Street Cry-Thousand Island, by Dubai Millenium; Eoin Harty); Mentor Cane (Mizzen Mast-Vixana, by Gone West; John Shirreffs); Belvin (Empire Maker-Midway Squall, by Storm Bird; Bob Baffert); and Declan's Warrior (Majestic Warrior-Commanche Star, by Saint Ballado; Nick Zito). The past performances for each can easily be found on HRN, and replays here on BloodHorse. Best of luck to all!

You don't have to go home, but you can't stay here.

New blog is up for weekend picks.

Feel free to repost from here for documentation/discussion...

PLAGIARISM ALERT

That's all right.

It's okay.

You'll all work

For us some day.

A Yale cheer.

Hello friends,

Enjoying the posts and education!  IMO...Any "serious" Derby selections have little value until we know the post positions.  I'm looking forward to posting my Superfecta selection the day before the OAKS.  Shall I be so bold as to act like I have it cold, or can I get approval for a four house super box?  With the assumption that the following four get post positions from 4-16, here's what I'm thinking based on odds and hopefully hitting a BIG one!

(BOXED)  ORB-JAVA'S WAR-OVERANALYZE-NORMANDY INVASION   (ALTERNATE FOR ODDS=REVOLUTIONARY)       Regardless....this should be so MUCH FUN!!!!   What a day!!!!!!!   Good luck all.  I hope one of you hits the BIG one!!