Pasco Stakes

This weekend's spotlight race in the 3yo division is the $100,000 Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs.

The 7f dirt race drew a field of 10, including the coupling from owner John Oxley and trainer Mark Casse of Dynamic Sky and Sky Commander. Dynamic Sky looks a lot like last year's Pasco winner Prospective, who also was an Oxley/Casse product. 

Mindspell: He cleared the NW1X condition last time at Tampa, and the horse that finished third to him (City of Weston) came back to run 2nd in a slowly run renewal of the Spectacular Bid S. at Gulfstream Park. The rail is not a great place to be going 7f, but he has the speed to get away. Company lines show losses to Brave Dave and Capital City, horses that today's foe Purple Egg handled in the Inaugural S. Mindspell will need to improve to compete for the win here.

Falling Sky: 2-for-3 lifetime. Won his debut at Calder, regressed first time vs. winners when 4th in the Inaugural, then took a step forward when gamely winning a NW1X at Gulfstream. Third-place finisher from his last (Singanothersong) returned to win a NW1X at GP. Falling Sky was no match for Purple Egg in the Inaugural, but he could put up a better fight this time with more experience under his belt. Another that will need a good break from the inside.

Dynamic Sky: He's made four starts, all in stakes, and his only off-the-board finish came in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. That also was his only dirt race. I didn't think he ran very well in the BC, but that's a difficult race to evaluate due to the severe inside speed bias that plagued the 2012 Cup. Plus, he was off Lasix that day. Casse is fine off the layoff, and Dynamic Sky's company lines and speed figures make him a big threat to win. Luis Contreras, the only rider he has ever had, ships in for the mount. Contreras has had some steering issues with this  talented but green colt, and note the addition of blinkers.

Lightning Stone: He's won two in a row on the turf by open lengths. The addition of blinkers have really helped him. His action looks a bit turfy, but he did run ok in the career debut on dirt. The biggest problem for him cutting back in distance is that he is going to be facing much quicker fractions than he is used to.

Purple Egg: He's undefeated, and it's impressive that he has won at three different tracks. Monmouth, PARX, Tampa ... he doesn't need to take his track with him. I loved his win in the Inaugural. He runs with a nice, relaxed stride and the way he gradually doles out his energy, the increase to 7f should be a positive for him. He missed the GP Derby reportedly with a fever, but fired a bullet here on Jan. 6. He should be stalking the leaders, looking for a seam turning for home.

Silver Day: Turns back off a 5th-place finish in a turf stake. He's going to find himself much further off the pace than he is accustomed to. Doesn't look fast enough.

O T B Bob: Is still a maiden and looks overmatched in here.

Divine Ambition: Won his debut by 8 lengths at Turfway and then was sold privately to Silverton Hills. New trainer Darrin Miller doesn't have great stats first-out with horses joining his barn. Beat nothing in the Turfway race but did it the right way. He was inside of the pacesetter when the rider pulled him back and steered him outside. He then drew off with a good-looking stride. The added distance should suit him, and this is a good post for his style. He'll need to jump way forward, but he is a candidate to do so in his second career start and first on dirt.

Hard to Name: Did not take to the turf in his last, but the pair of wins on the dirt at PARX were pretty good. Wide, stalk-and-pounce trip looks likely, and 7f on dirt is probably his game. Fast looking workout on Jan. 7, and I could see him bouncing back here.

Sky Commander: Coupled with Dynamic Sky. His best two races came on turf, and the coupling kills your value if you think he can run big going 7f on dirt.

Conclusion: Purple Egg is one of my favorite early 3yos and my top horse in this field. At 5-2 or above, he is a prime win bet for me. At 2-1 or below I would look to make a smaller play, keying him on top in the exotics. Divine Ambition interests me at 12-1 on the ML. He could get a nice pace pressing trip, and there is upside here. Hard to Name looks like he could get a piece, and if I play an exacta or trifecta wheel, he is one I will look to use. The Oxley/Casse coupling probably should be favored, but both have question marks for me. I'll bet that neither run their best here, and will confine them to underneath exotics action.

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-Keelerman

Following up on a topic from the last blog . . .

Forbidden Apple -- Out of Bounds finished a good second today in the Al Maktoum Challenge Round I (UAE-II). After breaking very well at the start of the one-mile race, he quickly took command of the lead while being tracked by longshot Rutland Boy. Barbecue Eddie, the eventual winner, was on the outside in fourth place, about 2 1/2 lengths from the lead.

With about 600 meters to go, Rutland Boy moved up to stick his head in front of Out of Bounds, and appeared to have the American colt beaten. But Out of Bounds dug back in tenaciously, regaining lost ground and reclaiming the lead turning for home.

Unfortunately, he didn't have quite enough left in the tank to stem off Barbecue Eddie, who rallied resolutely to claim the lead two hundred meters out and draw off for a 1 1/2-length triumph, with a final time of 1:37.25 seconds. Out of Bounds, in turn, finished a half-length clear of Rutland Boy and Fulbright, who dead-heated for third.

-Keelerman

10 Jan 2013 1:05 PM
Rusty Weisner

Pete Denk,

I've never made a bet at Tampa Bay Downs and won't start now, but I do have to handicap horses coming out of this, the Sam F. Davis and the TB Derby.   I seem to recall trainers saying it's a strange surface, but I've also heard that it's a speed strip.  Do you have a take on it?

10 Jan 2013 1:11 PM
KY VET

Pete.....try 6/5............purple egg.........i think its fair price too.....towers above these.....

10 Jan 2013 1:14 PM
Ranagulzion

Mind Spell, on the improve, tipped here to wire this field

10 Jan 2013 5:13 PM
longwaytomay

Rusty W.

Never heard it called a speed strip. I have always thought it to be a deep and sometimes very tiring track. Great for grinders.

10 Jan 2013 6:17 PM
Pete Denk

Rusty-

Tampa is a sandy track. A tad deep, but not necessarily slow. Forwardly placed horses do well, but it's a pretty fair track. I like their surfaces (turf and dirt).

10 Jan 2013 6:21 PM
Carlos in Cali

Looking at the BCJ replay, Dynamic Sky was bumped and squeezed pretty badly turning for home while making his move. The jock then basically wrapped-up on him and coasted home, losing by only 5L or so. He's clearly the class of the field and the addition of blinkers should have him forwardly placed from post#3 as he drops-back in distance. I think he scoots-away from them and wins,with Purple Egg chasing him home for 2nd. Chalky,but I can't see it any other way. I'll unload on the exacta then box em' just in case... if I even bet the race.

10 Jan 2013 7:00 PM
Pete Denk

Lady Banks, who I've highlighted in this blog previously, returns in the Ruthless Stakes in Aqu8 on Saturday.

10 Jan 2013 7:12 PM
Pete Denk

Carlos-

I agree Dynamic Sky had a little trouble, but I didn't get the feeling he was going anywhere, did you?

10 Jan 2013 7:56 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Dynamic Sky is a Racing Flow downgrade having failed to make an impact despite the very Closer favoring Flow of the BCJ on a track we deemed fair.

This is the same opinion we had of He's Had Enough.

10 Jan 2013 8:07 PM
Carlos in Cali

Pete,

I think he would've finished within 3L of Shanghai Bobby for whatever that's worth...

I like Kimono in the Ruthless on the cut-back in distance. She's been facing better opponents in her last 2 races going longer,and she should have enough stamina/class to run these down on the speed favoring inner-track.

10 Jan 2013 8:24 PM
Carlos in Cali

Plod Boy Phil,

I disagree with your assessment that the track was playing fair. The main-track was favoring forwardly placed runners on both days,that's why Mike Smith put the plodding stalker Royal Delta on the lead..

He's Had Enough certainly could've won if he hadn't encountered trouble turning for home.

Does Racing Flow take into account "troubled trips" in their downgrades?...  

10 Jan 2013 8:42 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

I think the two fractional favorites will be the entry from Casse and Purple Egg,but I think if they break the 2 Mind Spell and the 3 Falling Sky will be the most probable pacesetters they are in the 1 and 2 stalls in the strting gate.If one of them dosent break Purple Egg might be up with one of those two.Dynamic Sky has a chance to be in the garden spot trailing either one or two leaders.From the outside a possible pace presence could be the 8 Divine Ambition,but I dont think he will hold on for a piece,but I do think either the 2 or the 3 have a good chance to be in the exacta and their morning lines are 8-1 and 6-1, and since I always look at the win place and show odds as well as the exacta odds,I couldnt tell you who I would play while I write this.In a handicapping contest I would pick the 3 Falling Sky 1st or 2nd he is 6-1 on the morning line and is 2 for 3 on the track,his only loss coming right here at Tampa Bay in the Inagural to Purple Egg, that was a 6 horse field and on paper he looked like he was chasing from post 5 with others inside of him.I would like to see Lopez stay on and ship in to ride him.Something that I will check but not necessarily use it as a betting angle is the mounts lopez is shipping in to ride.He also rides in the 7 and in the 8th the Gasparilla Stakes the same conditions as the Pasco but for fillies, he is the 2nd choice on the morning line in that one, and if he wins, I wont play him to win both stakes, thats just something that I look at before finalizing my final bet.

10 Jan 2013 8:44 PM
Mary Zinke

I thought Mike Smith said that the not overrated Royal Delta caught such a good break that my Dubai World Cup win pick took him to the lead in the BCLC.

10 Jan 2013 9:19 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Carlos-

No,  trouble trips are not part of the equation.  We do not 'measure' anything that can not be quantified,  and trouble certainly can not.  Additionally, the physical impact on a horse that has truly encountered trouble is an unknown quantity as well.  How many times have you seen trouble trip horses lay a large egg when next seen ?  To make it worse,  these runners are almost always over-bet in this video age.

BC Friday was modestly speed favoring,  but certainly not enough to be classified as Biased.  The fact is,  the F&M Flow more than offset the speed friendly surface - her win was legit.

Finally, it was your post leading up to the that Cashcall, "..when He's had Enough wins....",  that triggered the firestorm of objections when I responded with 'HHE is a no-brainer downgrade.

To all bloggers here, no need to follow up looking for a response or fearing a re-ash on my end. This topic was thoroughly beaten to death in the aforementioned thread.

Best of racing luck.

10 Jan 2013 9:19 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Carlos-

No,  trouble trips are not part of the equation.  We do not 'measure' anything that can not be quantified,  and trouble certainly can not.  Additionally, the physical impact on a horse that has truly encountered trouble is an unknown quantity as well.  How many times have you seen trouble trip horses lay a large egg when next seen ?  To make it worse,  these runners are almost always over-bet in this video age.

BC Friday was modestly speed favoring,  but certainly not enough to be classified as Biased.  The fact is,  the F&M Flow more than offset the speed friendly surface - her win was legit.

Finally, it was your post leading up to the that Cashcall, "..when He's had Enough wins....",  that triggered the firestorm of objections when I responded with 'HHE is a no-brainer downgrade.

To all bloggers here, no need to follow up looking for a response or fearing a re-ash on my end. This topic was thoroughly beaten to death in the aforementioned thread.

Best of racing luck.

10 Jan 2013 9:19 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Mary -

If memory serves,  you called RD's win, "a tour de force".

Well said.

10 Jan 2013 9:38 PM
Mary Zinke

Plod Boy Phil (not sure if your name is Phil),

I don't use the term tour de force.  I don't think I ever commented here at BC time or even shortly after about Royal Delta's repeat in the BCLC because I was there, at Santa Anita, for it. I don't like to use a phone as a computer. Also, possibly people grow weary of my praising her, which I have done for over two years.

I'll work on this, but sometimes when you talk, I feel like I've done something wrong.

10 Jan 2013 9:52 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Mary -

It is Phil.  I make no effort to hide under a pseudonym. The last name is easily found on the website via published articles.

My apologies for crediting you with the quote.  Maybe it was Karen in Texas....

You've done nothing wrong.  While sarcasm (humor for the weak or sim) is a favorite of mine,  I don't use the phrase 'well said' in that tone.

BoRL

10 Jan 2013 10:09 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Mary -

Thanks for correcting me on the proper name of the race. These things are not my strength,  perhaps a result of seeing PPs for 12,000 races a year.

10 Jan 2013 10:11 PM
Mary Zinke

Getting back to the races, Phil, I looked at the San Fernando first. Looks like there are plenty to go after the lead, so I went with Tribal Jewel to sit just behind the front runners, then Mile High Magic, Fed Biz, Handsome Mike.

Pasco: The Egg, on numbers, Mind Spell, Hard To Name, and I find Divine Ambition interesting. I like him best, just that he's "new".

10 Jan 2013 10:28 PM
Carlos in Cali

Mary

He did say that.Along with acknowledging that the track bias was certainly in the back of his mind.

10 Jan 2013 10:38 PM
Karen in Texas

Plod Boy Phil,

What? I certainly don't remember calling RD's win a "tour de force"; don't remember commenting on her much at all really. Although I KNOW I never called her a "plodding stalker". Now back to regular programming.

10 Jan 2013 10:45 PM
Mary Zinke

She has beaten some exceptionally nice fillies that were other peoples' favorites. I realize that, Carlos.

10 Jan 2013 10:58 PM
Coldfacts

Pete,

Do not discount Divine Ambition’s chances of winning the Pasco as his profile has many positives. His sire Divine Park is a grandson of Mr. Prospector and consequently belongs to an elite group of stallions that have sired many champions. Unbridled, Street Cry, Distorted Humor, Elusive Quality and Quiet American have all sired winner of Triple Crown races. Divine Park bred only 70 mares in 2009 and consequently is not one of the abused stallions. His dam was lightly raced with only 3 starts. Mares belonging to the lightly raced and unraced category account for the majority of champions.

An impressive debut by a colt that is the product of a talented grandson of Mr. Prospector and a well-bred lightly raced broodmares, signals the potential to perform effectively at the highest level.

His chances of winning Pasco have to be good as what he lacks in experience he has in abundance in the class department. Purple Eggs could be cracked for the first time on Saturday.

11 Jan 2013 12:03 AM
Pete Denk

Very competitive card at GP on Saturday. Love the turf races.

11 Jan 2013 12:08 AM
KY VET

Wow....not hard to understand why i win at this game.......you people talk about the wrong things.....do you REALLY go on weather tampa is a speed or closer track? I see this over and over.....track bias? Again, how about the horse?  Shouldnt the best horse that day be 90 percent of the deal?......and pace....you people go on this alot........keep up the good work.........

11 Jan 2013 12:13 AM
JayJay

Pete : Any idea why Paco is not riding Purple Egg ?  Did Paco pick Falling Sky over PE or did PE's  connections picked Rocco ?

Pasco : I like Falling Sky and Hard To Name here.  Silver Day is my longshot to play in the exotics. I didn't pick Falling Sky because of Paco btw, it was the opposite.  I didn't pick PE because of Rocco and he'll probably go off at 4-5 anyway.

Very happy to see Oaklawn Park back, I like playing this track.  

11 Jan 2013 1:10 AM
JayJay

KY VET : Let me explain so you have an understanding of handicapping.  When people here post their picks, that means they already think their pick is going to be best horse in the race so they're past that "Shouldn't the best horse that day be 90 percent of the deal?" - they already looked at the field.  Read this blog, that's exactly how Pete did it, he looked at the field, broke it down to what he thinks of each horse in the race then posted his pick.  The other comments are handicapping other angles including the track surface, jockey, odds, people have different ways of handicapping but that's pretty much the basics.  Do you get it now ?  I'm fairly confident that most will agree with me.   I mean, who posts their picks thinking it's not going to be the best horse that day ??  Seriously.

Now, catch up and let us know the sleepyheads are and who you think will wake up that day and why do you think the horse will wake up ?  Looking forward to it.

A couple questions about your handicapping, if your horse finished 2nd or 3rd, does that mean the horse hit the snooze button and woke up late ?  Do you take that into consideration the next time the horse runs ?

11 Jan 2013 1:51 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

I think in stakes sprint races how the race unfolds and the advantagous positioning of each runner or not, and how it relates to the running of the race can help you come up with overlay winners.On paper Purple Egg has accomplished the most, and has beaten the colt that I picked for fun on this blog.I also wrote that I have many other factors that I check before betting my money on any race.Afterall I have been doing this for many years ,as many of you on here have, and with all those memories and experiences a lot of ideas come to me when that race is on the clock to make real bets.I am picking Falling Sky because his morning line odds I think are an overlay and he has a chance.But this pick is similar to a lot of online contests in that you have to make the pick in advance and when the race is minutes away I could decide to skip the race altogether.Eventhough Purple Egg has accomplished the most up to now,Falling Sky's connections have decided to ship him to Tampa knowing full well that Purple Egg is in the race.If you play this game long enough you know that you either like the favorite and what his odds are,or what you think they will be since we are picking in advance or you like another contender at his prices.BTW you can speculate who the best horse is but he might not be the best for this particular race, and the corresponding circumstances.GL everyone.

11 Jan 2013 8:35 AM
Mary Zinke

I read the heading first, then the comments, then the blog, so sorry to have used Pete's "interesting" about Divine Ambition. It was the MER in his PPs that led me to find the training center and its owners. They've had a few nice horses and I think he probably had a good start to his training. He's also been off since his September win, so even though he received a speed rating in the 80's for that, he's what I'd call an unknown. Either his connections are confident in his ability to step up to stakes level or they figure he's good enough to maybe hit the board and ready for a race now. But, that's all just stuff having nothing to do with how he'll run in this field. Just interesting.

11 Jan 2013 9:19 AM
predict

totally agree with Pete, this race will most likely be won by Purple Egg (this name comes from the way a pregnant woman looked wearing a purple top- love the name). If I was to bet this race, and I probably won't, it would depend on PE's odds. I would also go with Hard to Name underneath, hoping he would run to his breeding, but this would be just a guess.

Who knows, anything can happen, that's why they run the race..it will be fun to watch.

11 Jan 2013 10:32 AM
Coldfacts

Mary Zinke,

Divine Ambition’s sire Divine Park has some very nice 3YOs. He was a talented runner and his sire was brilliant but did not have a long stud career due to his untimely death.

Dancinginthecircle – 1st in $100K, By The Light Stk at Delta Downs (7F).

Blonde Fog – 3rd in $150K,  Arlington Washington Lassie (8F)

                        2nd in $500K Hollywood Starlet (81/2F)

Cmonbabylitemyfire  - won minor stakes

He has four other 3YO winners including Divine Ambition. He bred only 70 mares in 2009 so he I doing well with what is a small book. It is interesting to note that of his 7 3YO winners six have been fillies. Based on Divine Ambition’s manner of victory at Turfway I will be using him to crack purple eggs on Saturday. Do not be afraid to join me. This colt has a ton of ability.

11 Jan 2013 10:57 AM
Rusty Weisner

longwaytomay,

Thanks.  I heard it was "speedy" from somebody at the track near me who happened to be betting it that day, but here are a lot of dummies at the track.  I recall it looking sandy, light, almost the color of Florida's Gulf coast sand.  Crazy longshots were winning.  I wouldn't mind going there, but otherwise don't want any part of it.  

11 Jan 2013 11:06 AM
Rusty Weisner

KY VET,

That last remark is really disqualifying.  The idea that track conditions/biases aren't important betrays such ignorance I don't even know where to start.  Do you actually watch the races you claim to bet on, much less the big races the rest of us all watch?  Did you see this year's Breeder's Cup, or the past two Derby's?  Do you even know where these races were run?

11 Jan 2013 11:10 AM
Rusty Weisner

CHIEF PICAWANNA,

You're causing me anguish by using the term "overlay".  It's a mental feat for me to remember that "overlay" means underbet and "underlay" means overbet.

11 Jan 2013 11:12 AM
Pete Denk

KY Vet obviously can't behave for very long.

It's very important to know your track, including surface tendencies. His criticism of this discussion is way off base.

11 Jan 2013 11:34 AM
Pete Denk

Coldfacts-

I certainly did not discount Divine Ambition. Thought I gave him a pretty good review all things considered. He is a candidate to jump up going first-time dirt off the impressive TP debut. He also could be nowhere. Trainer Miller is 0-for-17 with horses making their first start for him, per the DRF guys.

11 Jan 2013 11:37 AM
Pete Denk

Just finished this week's Locksmith report.

A local Internet outage here in Lex plus some very competitive races made for a long night!

I found the turf races at GP on Saturday to be really interesting and tough. Races 4-6-8-10 are good handicapping puzzles.

11 Jan 2013 11:41 AM
KY VET

Point was.......alot of you go way way too much on this bias stuff.....read all these comments...rusty, what about this years breeders cup? or those derbies? what do you think? those horses won because a bias? really?.......again, you people go way too much on this stuff..........and pete, its a valid point im making,not missbehaving in any way....no one challenges these rediculous statements...................track biases are much more rare than you people believe, usually do to extreme weather conditions......tell me a couple of tracks, and their tendencies........im waiting....

11 Jan 2013 12:13 PM
Pete Denk

Carlos-

To respond to your earlier post about the Ruthless Stakes at Aqu, I agree Kimono makes sense on the cutback.

11 Jan 2013 12:19 PM
Pete Denk

KY Vet-

I can tell you the profile of any/every track I bet.

Gulfstream is a fast ground turf course where tactical speed and turn of foot rule the day.

Outside posts on the GP turf are terrible. The 12 hole is 1-38 so far at the current meet.

The best comparable course to GP is Monmouth. A horse that likes GP turf is likely to run well at Monmouth turf, and vice versa. Horses that skip across the top of the ground will like these surfaces.

11 Jan 2013 12:48 PM
Pete Denk

After they added tons of sand to Santa Anita last year, the main track became an inside speed biased mess. It was dull (in terms of energy return, not times) AND speed favoring, one of my least favorite surfaces. If the best speed horse didn't win, the 2nd or 3rd best speed were the next most likely winners. Closers/sustained pace runners had no chance.

I'm not privy to the recent track maintenance, but I can say the SA surface has improved by leaps and bounds at the current meet. It's a fair surface again. It's fast, but closers can win, especially if the leaders go too fast early. Last year the speed bias was so severe that horses were setting ridiculous fractions and not backing up. Glad to see that is no longer the case.

11 Jan 2013 1:04 PM
KY VET

AQu race 3 ....on paper BEELINER is a cinch.....2 races at str. mdn, now dropping to m60000...82 brisnet then 77 brisnet...no excuse for not improving that 2nd out.......im predicting he will not run good.....either win a slow race, or lose.....hes 6/5......all but #3 deterrent are 1st outers....deterrent has run terrible all 3 races run..lost by16lengths,27L,18L....sounds bad huh? this horse will wake up with a good effort today.....might not be good enough......wp #3 detterent

11 Jan 2013 1:14 PM
Minnesota Kid

Sad Clown (aka KY Vet)--

The inner track at Aqueduct has been speed-favoring for several decades now.

Ever wonder why lone speed types get hammered down to chalk, sometimes from a 10-1 ML.

BTW, as stated previously, we all know that a genuine pro would never play as many races as you apparently do.

Tell me, will you be making multiple Derby future wagers again this year? Yet another sign of a real clown.

11 Jan 2013 1:15 PM
JayJay

KY VET : Instead of telling people what they shouldn't look for, why don't you tell us what to look for ?

Headin' out to see if I can hit a longshot at Oaklawn park.  Good luck to all betting real money at the track today !

11 Jan 2013 1:23 PM
Pedigree Ann

Phil -

Re: Royal Delta's "tour de force." That was me (I, if I want to be grammatically correct; Great-Aunt Sadie, a high school English teacher before/during WWI sometimes yells in my ear). You remembered it was a female, at least.

11 Jan 2013 1:24 PM
KY VET

right about even money! im the chalk killer...........but 2 firsters 1st 2nd.....chalk way back in 3rd.....my 3 had clear lead and quit.........you can be right, and still lose.....only pick 3s alive......hated fav.....

11 Jan 2013 1:30 PM
KY VET

figured the aqu speed fav thing would show up.......you guys are funny.....ever wonder why? maybe tracks that have 5 horse fields all the time.....gg/aqu/sa......speed does good huh?  big fields....oaklawn/tampa/turfway etc...closers.......has more to do with pace,more speed horses, and in small fields,jocks ask horses sooner.........................bad science guys.........horses that relax...go farther.....horses relax better less horses................learn!!!!!!

11 Jan 2013 1:39 PM
Rusty Weisner

KYVET,

Derby 2011 -- severe bias against speed inside, all day, with winners coming wide

Derby 2012 -- the opposite, multiple track records Oaks/Derby Day

Breeder's Cup 2012 -- speed inside both days

The winners didn't win "because" of the bias.  It was one of several factors that favored them, or that went against the strengths of competitors.  The easy bias to spot is when the track favors speed inside, of course:  even without looking at times, when the 1-2-3 start and finish that way all day and when the fields are strung out.  The opposite is likely true when you see more than one race where plodders at long odds clunk up to win, especially if times are slow.

For me one of the hardest things to do was believing in a bias and changing my picks I had so lovingly doped out the night before.  My worst individual loss in this regard was on Fly Down in the '10 Travers.  I was prepared bet $250 on him at 6-1 with the utter certainty that Zito was set to win that race (He had three entries, all closers).  As I played the card I saw there was a bias that day for speed.  But hey, my big pick was 6-1, and I had been fiendishly astute in picking him, so I disbelieved my lying eyes.  He closed furiously and lost by a literal whisker. Fly Down subsequently trotted along third behind Blame on another biased track at Belmont that favored Haynesfield, then showed how sharp he was finishing third behind that same Blame and Zenyatta in the BC.  That race featured a separate painful lesson, this one in bad betting:  I had a single straight $20 exacta: Blame, Fly Down.

11 Jan 2013 1:57 PM
predict

before I would bet too much on Divine Ambition, I would like to see a race over this track. Purple Egg has won over the track, DA trys for the first time. This is a totally different surface than that which DA has won over. Just throwing a little caution to the wind.

11 Jan 2013 1:58 PM
KY VET

well...chalky day...alot of winners, but no prices,,,hes another fav that on paper should smoke...race 5aqu...#2 hackleton..83 rating 1st out...then dissapointed with an 80.....claim by assmussen then dropped again.....looks like cinch, but im trying to beat him.....looks like 3 or 6....wp #3 fat 9/2........PROMISED DESTINY

11 Jan 2013 2:04 PM
Rusty Weisner

JayJay,

Speaking of bias, I've only played Oaklawn three times.  The first time I played the whole card the day of the 2011 Rebel and won on The Factor and a couple of other races after seeing speed holding (the short stretch is a disadvantage to closers, e.g., Nehro).  Last year I took a swing at Bodemeister-Secret Circle-Cozzetti because of that prior experience.  Another thing about Oaklawn:  it's easier to get a feel for the surface because every race is on the dirt.

11 Jan 2013 2:07 PM
KY VET

big fav at tampa race 4 bobbys bell....think he regresses, but not much to like....maybe speed horses #1 or #4.....ill go #1 regina twain wp

11 Jan 2013 2:08 PM
Pete Denk

KY Vet-

Your comment that "horses relax better (in smaller fields)" is not true across the board, but there is some truth to it.

And the reason is rooted in herd dynamics, which u don't understand and say u don't believe in. But if u open your mind just a little u might learn something.

Individual dynamic horses will struggle more in the traffic of bigger fields, that's why they need to be forwardly placed. They have less to manage if their "herd" consists of just themselves and another target or two.

Group dynamic horses feed off of the group/herd motion. The bigger the field the better and the longer the race the better.

Ron the Greek is an example of a primarily group dynamic horse.

As is Purple Egg (which makes him a bit unique for a son of Lion Heart)

Shackleford is an example of a primarily individual dynamic horse (a very powerful one).

11 Jan 2013 2:11 PM
KY VET

i had fly down that day too...he got bobbed...he won then lost then won...what he do after....2011 best horse by far won derby....2012 speed ran great...unreal effort by the speed horse....ill have another wasnt a closer....he had speed.....he won again didnt he......? bad examples..

11 Jan 2013 2:15 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Rusty Weisner thats not the first time I have heard that said,the terms overlay and underlay sound counterintuitive when you first hear the word and the meaning.I just think of an overlay as an overlooked contender as in by the betting pool for the particular race.

11 Jan 2013 2:18 PM
KY VET

pete....ive been using that for years....you call it herd dynamics....i dont......its common sense.......you claim a horse always has it.....but if 10 same horses run 10 times.....i say diff winner about 4 or 5 times.....your theory is flawed

11 Jan 2013 2:19 PM
Rusty Weisner

...I'm sorry, he had a rabbit and two closers (the other was the hopeless Ice Box) in that race.

11 Jan 2013 2:21 PM
KY VET

wow.....just lost on best horse at tam...#1 pure speed broke last, ran unreal....got nailed by fav......good bet....not fair...

11 Jan 2013 2:22 PM
KY VET

aqu race 5 wrong....2/5 wins.....

11 Jan 2013 2:25 PM
Carlos in Cali

Who bets on a horse that got dusted by double-digits in their previous 3 starts because they think they'll "wake-up"?...

I would understand if they had only 1 prior start and they backed-up down the lane,possibly needing a race, but after 3 starts- same results.

They got dusted by double-digits,again. I mean,if it walks like a duck,then...  Learn.Novice.

11 Jan 2013 2:26 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Pete one thing I dont like about small fields is that you get races where the competitors are not running as hard to make the lead as they would have to in a large field,the reason its simple less horses are being sent. This leads to a slower pace by the front runners and the entire field front to back is 5 lengths.Also it is common sense that if you win in a small field it was easier than winning in one where you have to beat more competitors and run harder to do so.Of course their are exceptions to all of this because of the make-up of a large field vs a small field.

11 Jan 2013 2:30 PM
Rusty Weisner

KYVET,

In last year's Derby the best horse won, but with the surface the winner had to have early speed; IHA remained in contact with the leaders through the whole race.  Why would I claim he was a "closer" when my point was the surface favored speed?

Which brings up another memorable case of surface playing a prominent role:  last year's Preakness, where without the deep, slow, tiring track that day Bodemeister might have won at the shorter distance (I had IHA).

Watch and learn!  Or at least watch.

11 Jan 2013 2:40 PM
KY VET

tam race 5 wp #4 belmont road

11 Jan 2013 2:44 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Rusty Weisner the reason I said the terms overlay and underlay are counter intuitive, at least they were for me when I first heard the words is that I related overbet and underbet to overlay and underlay.They are the exact opposite.

11 Jan 2013 2:46 PM
KY VET

carlos....the horse was dropping....went off like 5/2 bet down....relax......its just one race.....fav looked vulnerable....i bet 2nd fav.....not really crazy.....youre funny

11 Jan 2013 2:47 PM
Rusty Weisner

To me, turf biases seem both rarer and harder to spot.  On a hot, dry, dusty August day I sometimes see a speedy turf strip, but even then it's hard to predict who's going to take advantage of it.

11 Jan 2013 2:50 PM
KY VET

aqu race 6 wp #2 blondcat

11 Jan 2013 2:52 PM
KY VET

aqu race 6 good 2nd blondcat...winner 8 to 1 #5

11 Jan 2013 2:55 PM
KY VET

bodemeister ran like a freak....went too fast...way too fast........ran great race....you give examples that dont mean anything....those 2 were way the best horses.....thats my point....you people make a bias out of the best horses winning....if they went slower, they still would win....

11 Jan 2013 2:59 PM
Rusty Weisner

CHIEF PICAWINNA,

Same exact thing here.  

11 Jan 2013 3:03 PM
KY VET

tampa race 6 wp#3 fast and strong 5 to 1........aqu race 7 prime bet #6 True fortune

11 Jan 2013 3:11 PM
Plod Boy Phil

re: Bias

According to Racing Flow, roughly 5 to 8% of all racing days at the 7 major circuits we cover register a Bias of real significance.

11 Jan 2013 3:11 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Pete -

Please clarify the time frame at Santa Anita when you believed the track to be unusually and consistently favorable to speed as a result of added sand.

Thanks.

11 Jan 2013 3:14 PM
Rusty Weisner

KY VET,

There's nothing mutually exclusive about saying the best horses won and that there was a bias.  I wasn't just talking about KY Derby, race 12; I was talking about a whole two days' worth of Oaks/Derby racing.  I'll take a better example that you'll comprehend more easily:  last year's Oaks, where the obvious speed went 1-2 around the track.  I believe you liked Grace Hall?  I sure did.  But I was really dying to bet Summer Applause -- I didn't, though, when I saw how the track was playing.  I can't say spotting the bias made me money, but it kept me from losing some.  

11 Jan 2013 3:15 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

Does that cover dirt and turf?  I'm just talking about dirt.

11 Jan 2013 3:17 PM
KY VET

yea...tampa race 6 7 to 1 on #3 fast and strong!!!!!!!!boom!!!!!!! pro!!!7 to one! yeahawwwww!

11 Jan 2013 3:20 PM
KY VET

still no examples.....

11 Jan 2013 3:22 PM
Plod Boy Phil

re:  2011 Derby Day Main Track

The track was indeed Biased towards Closers. So much so in fact,  that while most were absorbed with the 'slow pace' set by Shackleford (including a who's who list of household names)  Racing Flow upgraded the Derby pace setter heading into the Preakness.

As a general rule, a closer Bias will result in outside swoops and a speed Bias will favor those on the inside.  It's the nature of the game.

That said,  the 2011 Derby Day rail was clearly the wrong place to be.

11 Jan 2013 3:23 PM
KY VET

your bias science is flawed...most biases i here are speed holding ones.......horses that feel good and fire a great race show more speed usually....the 17.60 winner i just had, went wire to wire....didnt look like the speed....felt good today and freaked...he figured to fire...now it looks like speed holding on....thats why your science is flawed........the horse felt good today........period!

11 Jan 2013 3:30 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty -

We concur on the 2012 Derby Day Speed Bias.  While we've recorded many of more significance,  it was notable.

The Oak's track the day before was not anywhere near as favorable.  In fact,  coincidentally,  that day's Bias figure and the Bias figure we recorded on the 2012 BC Saturday were identical.  Both had little if any impact on the days results.

While our figures take into account the movements of the Top 3 finishers (weighted accordingly), there was not a single w-w winner on the Oaks Day card.

11 Jan 2013 3:31 PM
Plod Boy Phil

KY VET -

What in heavens are you talking about.

One thing I must make clear.  We NEVER attempt to rate a track during the running of the card in question.  Our figures are used NEXT time the horses race.

Trying to judge a Bias with each result is fools-play that is best left for TVG talking heads.

11 Jan 2013 3:34 PM
Pete Denk

Agree that CD was outside/closer bias on Derby Day 2011. Very strong.

Phil-

I don't have exact dates on when I think Santa Anita went from speed to normal.

I just know the last couple weekends the track has been playing fairly, which was rare at the 2012 fall meeting.

11 Jan 2013 3:35 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty -

Just dirt.

We require a minimun of 5 races on a surface before we'll calculate a Bias figure.  We used to use 6 (preferably),  but during the turf season, too many days were left without figures.

11 Jan 2013 3:36 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty -

Correction to previous:

Any day that we record a Bias is part of that 5-8%.  Again,  we are talking about thousands of race cards over a 10 year period.

11 Jan 2013 3:38 PM
Pete Denk

Re: turf track biases

Rusty-

The Saratoga turf has consistently had periods of severe speed bias the last few summers.

I guessed that might be what u were referring to "on a hot, dry, dusty August day."

KY Vet-

Saratoga is a speed track (turf and dirt). Angle of turns may be a large contributor.

11 Jan 2013 3:38 PM
Plod Boy Phil

re:  Overlay / Underlay

Both terms that make my blood warm to dangerous levels.

Each must be relative to an idividual's handicapping and not based on the ML or what someone onn TV says.

One man's Overlay can be another man's Underlay.

One man gathers what another man spills.

11 Jan 2013 3:42 PM
Plod Boy Phil

KY VET -

Cograts on the Tam winner.

You are up $1.60 on win bets.

11 Jan 2013 3:47 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Pete -

Not looking for exact dates.  I'll assume 2012, Jan 1 - Dec 31.

11 Jan 2013 3:49 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Pete -

My fault.....got it now:  

Fall 2012

11 Jan 2013 3:51 PM
Pete Denk

PLod Boy Phil-

Your policy of not making a call on track bias within a racecard will lead to tons of missed opportunities.

If you suspect a bias, plug in the Flow-o-meter halfway through the card and see what it says!

11 Jan 2013 3:55 PM
Rusty Weisner

Pete Denk,

Yes, and Monmouth.  I regularly played both tracks during August of 2010 & 2011.  

11 Jan 2013 3:55 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Pete -

re:  SA Fall 2012

In general I'll concur,  though the term Bias is used too often.  We like to distinquish between Bias and 'favoring'.  

A quick scan of our figs for the meet in question reveal two genuine Speed Biases (10/18 and 10/26) and one genuine Closer Bias (11/ 18 - see Little Jerry).

We also recorded six days 'favorabale' to Speed. To us, this means that unless the Flow was also speed favoring, the track trend would not be strong enough to 'stand-alone' for the pruposes of upgrading runners,  unless one really widen the permissable ranges we encourage.

Only two such days of Closer favoring were recorded during that meet.

11 Jan 2013 4:05 PM
Mary Zinke

Hal's Hope:

Associate

Reason: Fast, always comes back with a win.

Pants On Fire, was going to be win pick. Not sure why he acted up last time. Could be fear of drowning. I hope he is gelded upon retirement.

Soldat, trainer liked him better on dirt, like him sentimentally(not a good reason), but he has liked this track.

Swagger Jack, beat the the other last of the Edward Evans breds last out. Keeps improving on dirt.

Lots of "stuff" here. 2,9,4,1

11 Jan 2013 4:12 PM
Plod Boy Phil

correction:

remove 11/18 from SA - that was of course Hollywood Park.

11 Jan 2013 4:19 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Pedigree Ann -

Thanks for cleaning up the matter of Royal Delta's 'tour de force'.

11 Jan 2013 4:34 PM
Mary Zinke

I just set some of her wins to music, Phil :)

11 Jan 2013 4:53 PM
Ranagulzion

KY Vet,

I see you're taking a lot of fire on here ...gotta have skin as thick as an alligator.  Regarding track bias I believe that good horses with experienced jocks overcome those factors therefore i don't weigh that factor much ...but I wouldn't say ignore it. Stay cool.  

11 Jan 2013 5:01 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Minnesota Kid -

This is not your daddy's Inner Dirt track anymore.

In fact,  since the beginning of 2009,  Severe Closer Bias days have far, far outweighed Severe Speed Biased days by a magnitude of roughly 7-1.

Expanding the parameters to include those days we classify as impoortant to moderate does nothing to change those numbers.

I believe it's worth noting that this drastic change in track tendency coincided with the hiring of a new track supeintendant prior to the 2009 meet.

11 Jan 2013 5:05 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

KY  Vet Ill give you a practical example of why sometimes there may be a  bias,its vey simple business.On a big day for the track for instance KY Derby day, the track caretaker wants records broken because it is good for the business of the track, and good for the sport of horseracing.So what does he do, he tightens up the track so it is closer to running on asphalt than dirt.  Track records are broken in more than one race.If you dont think he can do this after spending years working in this profession maybe even at the same track,then forget about any bias.IMO the biggest bias is gone,it was at the dirt track Keenland had before they replaced it with AW.

11 Jan 2013 5:14 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Chief Pica -

It may be all simple business in your mind.  However,  until you can show me a sound correlation between Speed Bias and faster than par tracks (or Closer Bias and slower than par tracks),  it's a concept that is nothing more than one of many accepted myths in racing.

11 Jan 2013 5:29 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Oaklawn Park

The 5th Season Stakes

1 Skyring: has been on the wrong side of the 'Flow' in two consecutive turf races (one speed favoring,  the other closer favoring).  For those concerned with the dirt,  his gutty win on May 5, 2012 at CD was worthy of a modest upgrade as the strong Closers Flow outweighed a track that favored speed.

11 Jan 2013 5:35 PM
-Keelerman

According to DRF.com, here are some of the horses under consideration for the LeComte and Smarty Jones Stakes next weekend:

LeComte Stakes:

Avie's Quality

Fear the Kitten

General Election

Golden Soul

Hawaakom

I've Struck a Nerve

Malibu High

Mylute (may wait for Risen Star)

Oxbow

Tour Guide

Smarty Jones Stakes:

Brown Almighty

Malibu High

Texas Bling

Tour Guide

Will Take Charge

-Keelerman

11 Jan 2013 5:38 PM
Pete Denk

I concur that the Aqu inner's rep for speed bias is a bit overblown.

It certainly has its speed bias days, but it's been pretty fair so far this meet.

11 Jan 2013 5:54 PM
Plod Boy Phil

re: SA 5th

That was a bit unfortunate for Flow Players,  most of whom were live on a 2x1 DD play to Mayan Eyes ($112).  Before we get excited for next time at a pitance of todays 24-1,  we'll check the Fig.

11 Jan 2013 6:11 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Plod Boy Phil I will leave the showing to someone else.I dont worry about the bias, but I know it exist sometimes.The way I play regularly, dosent involve complicating this endeavor as if this was an absolute science which it is far from.So if it works for you fine.I will keep doing what works for me.But as for me proving to you that speed bias exist,its not going to happen.

11 Jan 2013 6:58 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Bloggers playing the ponies is not and will NEVER be an ABSOLUTE science.It is a game of chance and it ALWAYS will be.Anyone that thinks otherwise is not rational.Thats not to say if you are successful picking  using a methodology,I say keep using it.Trying to convince others especially me to pay for your opinion,your wasting your blog post.

11 Jan 2013 7:07 PM
KY VET

You all proved my point....you cant agree even on a bias....people always follow the inner track is speed favoring at aqu.....and sa...and gg....im saying bias is way overblown....which the guy who disagreed w me just said.......i didnt say it doesnt exist...OVERBLOWN! again...weather related most of the time....probably because the track is being taken care of the same every day.....................and can we still keep hearing the they roll the track so track records will be set story again? yea i read that book too......you keep believing that ok?   you people believe anything...

11 Jan 2013 8:11 PM
KY VET

You all proved my point....you cant agree even on a bias....people always follow the inner track is speed favoring at aqu.....and sa...and gg....im saying bias is way overblown....which the guy who disagreed w me just said.......i didnt say it doesnt exist...OVERBLOWN! again...weather related most of the time....probably because the track is being taken care of the same every day.....................and can we still keep hearing the they roll the track so track records will be set story again? yea i read that book too......you keep believing that ok?   you people believe anything...

11 Jan 2013 8:11 PM
KY VET

Plod boy Phil.........you dont handicap.....you post upgrades, downgrades............you are not foolish enough to tell people to blindly bet those upgrades their next time out are you? Doesnt it matter where they run? who they run against? you claim all these winners, you must not tell people this.......

11 Jan 2013 8:20 PM
KY VET

Cheif....believe what you want....my house/car/bank acct.says its not luck.....ive been killing this game for years.....i study for hours a day....the cashiers at my track ask me who i like.....they know.................need more proof?

11 Jan 2013 8:24 PM
KY VET

To take peoples money, by inferring betting those upgrade horses no matter who they run against, is not right...............call the bbb!

11 Jan 2013 8:26 PM
Forbidden Apple

KY Coldcuts,

Boom! Boom! You went 1/8 today, you are a true PRO.

Enough of this tour de force talk with Royal Delta. When she beats Fort Larned or any highly regarded colts in a Grade I on dirt, then I will call her a force. The 2012 Breeders Cup Classic was wide open for her to take on colts and she was a no show.

11 Jan 2013 8:50 PM
Pete Denk

I didn't do any OP races in my analysis this week, as the meet just opened and there is a chance for slopfest, but checking them out now.

OP Race 5

2 Twin Engine (5-2 ML odds) will be tough. 4th to Dewey Square and 3rd to Gulfport. Can get the 1 1/16 miles.

11 Jan 2013 8:54 PM
El Kabong

Plod Boy Phil,

"Just sharing great information. My ROI here is unmatched over the last two months."

I think your noggin would have a tough time fitting through the door of most racetracks. Here's a tip for you, Handicapping and betting are two different disciplines. You have only attempted to manage one.

Best of luck betting.

11 Jan 2013 9:00 PM
Plod Boy Phil

KY VET -

Study for hours ?

Tough gig.

I Grade a card in ten minutes using the greatest handicapping tool there is, DRF Formulator.

I have not made a win bet on a non-upgrade in half a decade. I never throw horses out due to class, surface, or distance, trainer, jockey, etc, etc - that's a great way to become part of the public and miss the big price horses.

I don't 'claim' anything that is not true. I have posted five Racing Flow bold upgrades on this blog since I first came here on Nov 2:

Gabriel Charles - $11.80

Swagger Jack - $17.00

Exeter Road - $18.00

Stanwyck - $7.40

Skunko - off the board

Our customers are very happy one month at a time for years.

11 Jan 2013 9:12 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Forbidden Apple -

To quote Charles Howard in Seabiscuit,  "son, what are you so mad at? "

Awards that people vote on are not worth getting up in arms over.

11 Jan 2013 9:18 PM
Mary Zinke

Royal Delta ran in the correct BC race for her in 2012. I didn't have a question about that, Forbidden Apple, and yes, I know you were not referring to my devotion to her, but to another's word choice.  Her team has a plan for her.  I don't dole out the word great easily. She will be judged after her career is over.  

11 Jan 2013 9:25 PM
KY VET

a friend just texted me about a horse for a show bet....race 9 tp ill give him a longshot that figures to improve...#1 Kels dreamer......lets see what happens

11 Jan 2013 9:25 PM
KY VET

i gave him ded race 7 #5 goldzar

11 Jan 2013 9:27 PM
Plod Boy Phil

El Kabong -

Betting is pure entertainment is purely at this point.

Good luck with the grind.

11 Jan 2013 9:29 PM
El Kabong

Plod Boy Phil,

While Pete offers his best advice to help those who endeavor in handicapping and betting make the best of their efforts, you offer handicapping advice then refer to the actual betting of such efforts as nothing more  than a grind? You are quite the opportunist with nothing to add by your own admission. Say goodnight.

11 Jan 2013 9:39 PM
Mary Zinke

"Enough of this" Oh really? You just made Phil's infomercials a joy to read, and when KY was losing, I wished him GL, so then he won big. LOL

11 Jan 2013 9:39 PM
Plod Boy Phil

El Kabong -

The comment was directed specifically at you. It had nothing to do with Pete. Very odd response,  that.

You might want to stay up for a bit as I'm considering posting Bold Upgrade #6.

BoRL El Kabong

11 Jan 2013 9:57 PM
Mary Zinke

Bring on the upgrade, Phil, and what is BoRL?  

11 Jan 2013 10:04 PM
KY VET

So.....Boy only bets Bold Upgrades............ohhhhh!!! Notice he doesnt say to bet the upgrades....just assumes no matter what, whenever an upgrade wins, his people had it........SNAKE OIL ANYONE?   I have no problem with someones deal........but putting yourself out there as an expert,taking peoples money, and then telling you he doesnt handicap, tells you something.....i dont even think this dude even bets..........be careful people!!!!

11 Jan 2013 10:12 PM
KY VET

mary...i was losing because i was having horrible breaks/luck.....had the best horse by far one of those races.......but i was ahead the whole day.......i just posted random races........im fine.....i can lose every race i post for a month, im still a winner......

11 Jan 2013 10:15 PM
El Kabong

Plod Boy Phil,

Phil, you're odd, not my response. Try to weasel out of my claim that you "try" to handicap but do not bet. They are very different endeavors. You'd love to make a buck off (handicapping advice) but not betting. My guess is because you failed miserably at the latter. And now you want to attract the Bloodhorse Audience to your web of advice that does not have the courage to bet anymore. I would rather here a weasel explain himself.

11 Jan 2013 10:16 PM
Mary Zinke

I'm not worried about you, KY.  Do what you do.  I'll take what I will from that.

11 Jan 2013 10:18 PM
El Kabong

Phil,

The difference between you and everyone else posting here, is we're not afraid to bet our post. How can you claim ROI if you never bet your info?

Best of Betting Luck!

11 Jan 2013 10:27 PM
Plod Boy Phil

KY VET -

Is that how you interpreted my latest to you ?  

For the record,  I've posted five regular grades here.  No winners, two seconds:  Bull Time $5.80 place and Skyring (today) $8.40 place.

All the bold grade were posted the night before the race.

11 Jan 2013 10:29 PM
Forbidden Apple

Plod Boy Phil,

I'm only mad at myself for leaving the local betting parlor after Point of Entry (J.V.) lost the Turf. I was all in at Saratoga on Trinniberg, I made the biggest bet of my life on a double, Trinneberg/Alpha. I was so frustrated after the Turf, that I skipped the Sprint and made my bets and went home. Trinneberg paid $39 and then my next 2 picks won, Wise Dan and Fort Larned. I did have a nice payday on the late double, but I pushed myself out the door without playing a pick 3. I'm over it, just here trying to give some love to Fort Larned. I believe he is a far better horse than people give him credit for. And Wise Dan is a very close 2nd for me. I want to see the best go head to head with the best. Wise Dan, Royal Delta, and Fort Larned, now that's a horse race.

11 Jan 2013 10:31 PM
Plod Boy Phil

El Kabong -

1) You have not a clue about my wagering tendencies. The mere fact that you think you do is just plain silly.  Then again, if it walks like a duck...

2) With the exception of Manando,  I do not recall you 'posting' a single runner on this page in the last nine weeks.  If I'm wrong,  please correct me.

How about some substance El K.

"Please tell me you didn't fly me all the way up here for questions about underwear and phone calls"  

11 Jan 2013 10:41 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Forbidden Apple -

At the risk of backlash from the bitter in the room,  Fort Larned was an upgraade for us in the Classic - it was a good result. He deserves full credit for unaided win on a fair track.

As I've admitted here before,  I look at so many races a year, roughly 12,000, that it's been years since I treated any of them as special.

Hmmmm.

Sounds like a grind.

11 Jan 2013 10:54 PM
predict

With all the success of reality shows on TV, after reading these blogs lately, I have a great idea for a new show. Get Plod boy Phil, KY Vet, COLDFACTS, El Kabong, Mary Zinke and Chief Picawinna to sit together at a race track and film them discussing and handicapping a race; and then watch the race; and revisit the group discussing the result. Get some overly botoxed, ridiculously siliconed bimbos to sit with them and you have a fantastic success for yourself. I know I find these blogs very entertaining, but also educational, and I would be willing to bet a show like that would be tremendous for increasing public interest in racing.

11 Jan 2013 10:56 PM
El Kabong

PBOYP,

Spoken like a man on the run.

"1) You have not a clue about my wagering tendencies. The mere fact that you think you do is just plain silly.  Then again, if it walks like a duck..."

Yes indeed I don't and nor does anyone else here..... if it bets like a fool we'd never know. You don't post it.

2) With the exception of Manando,  I do not recall you 'posting' a single runner on this page in the last nine weeks.  If I'm wrong,  please correct me.

Very good PBOYP, I do not post many. Biggest reason is that I have many considerations, including how they look when they step on the track, how the track is playing racing leading up, etc. but once in a while I do post when I feel not much will change.

Pete, for the Cash Call Futurity.

Tri Box-HHE, FK, V, DenL. 1,2, 5, 6 box.

El Kabong 15 Dec 2012 11:54 AM

Some of us don't shoot our pie holes off without specifics. You should try it. It lends credibility.

11 Jan 2013 10:57 PM
Plod Boy Phil

re: statistics

Anyone see that statistician Nate Silver predicted a NE Patriots - Seahawk Super Bowl.

and I just ate.......

11 Jan 2013 11:00 PM
KY VET

Predict...........your wife says "hi!"

11 Jan 2013 11:05 PM
KY VET

I for one....give plod boy credit for posting some very nice winners on here.........but its not handicapping..........but hes had good luck................you give people a tool.....i think its a small tool......(no pun intended).........but it aint handicapping............

11 Jan 2013 11:09 PM
El Kabong

re: statistics

Did anyone see PBOYP's remark about the Redskins/Seahawks game made 15 minutes into the game when the Redskins were up by 14.

KY VET -

Stick to horses.

Seattle 2-6 on the road travels 3K miles to play on grass against a team that has won 7 straight games.

LOL

Plod Boy Phil 06 Jan 2013 5:12 PM

I can't believe he went here. What a stooge. You didn't have the guts to say something before the game like KY VET did, then you got all tough and mighty when the Redskins were up by 14 playing at home on the crap ass field. But even with those advantages you still failed to give this audience good advice. I would sooner buy miracle tonics from a traveling band of carnival clowns than here another word of your gutless dribble.

11 Jan 2013 11:09 PM
KY VET

hey drosselmeyer had first foal born....in jan......another throw out for coldcuts......he hates jan foals......the horses dna change miraclously in jan. i guess.....just kill that foal huh coldcuts.........yes....he actually posted that jan foal almost never win the derby.....nevermind, that not alot of foals born in jan......think that might skew the numbers?......another wacky gem from coldcuts......

11 Jan 2013 11:13 PM
Footlick

I see nothing has changed since I left.  It is amazing to me how many people are so concerned with cutting down others information.  Maybe everyone should just concentrate on their own process instead of criticizing others.  All information is useful and all information can educate, can teach you what is useful to you and what is not.  But remember, what is not useful to you may work for someone else.  As far as I can tell, nobody here is a world champion handicapper.  Everyone has room to improve.  

11 Jan 2013 11:27 PM
Plod Boy Phil

El Kabong -

Should I post how much I bet ?

Or post tickets on Facebook.

All I do is provide the information before the race with complete detail. It's all anyone can do that has what it takes to provide information for loyal paying customers.  You should try it for a day, or a week.  Could you do it ?  Unlikely.  Could you do it for four years and keep them coming back montha after month and grow your business every year ?  Not a chance.

And if you are going to address me,  use the name correctly.

BoRL

11 Jan 2013 11:43 PM
predict

GG- Sat.R-4, Calif. Derby

Zeewat is going to be favorite, will try to beat him with #1-Will True Up, he should like the surface and distance no problem, he can run with these, $20 WPS

11 Jan 2013 11:54 PM
El Kabong

Plod Boy Phil,

Your passive aggressive pot shot at the Seahawks did not go unnoticed.

Re: statistics

does anyone remember Plod Boy Phils advice on the Redskins/Seahawks game that came 15 minutes into the game after the Redskins had a 14 point lead.

KY VET -

Stick to horses.

Seattle 2-6 on the road travels 3K miles to play on grass against a team that has won 7 straight games.

LOL

Plod Boy Phil 06 Jan 2013 5:12 PM

You obviously have lost money betting football too, given you couldn't even pick the winner of a game that had already started and favored a team playing at home, up by 14 that still lost. LOL.

11 Jan 2013 11:56 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Racing Flow Bold Upgrade          

Saturday

SANTA ANITA, Race 6

8 Persuasive Paul (4-1):  two back, he recorded a 'Quick to' move when moving prematurely to the lead on a track that was importantly Closer Biased. Of note is his early calls beaten lengths compared to that of the winner and the fact that he made the lead only to be run down from behind by two deep closers.

Last out,  Paul was in a hopeless chasing role behind the wire to wire winner of a Speed favoring Flow on a track that was playing favorably to Speed.  The combination of the two made the race nearly 'Extreme'.

Tries turf today.

Flow players will be using the 9 Wild Student who is upgraded off a variation of the 'quick to Zip' concept.

11 Jan 2013 11:56 PM
Plod Boy Phil

El Kabong:

Its's rare to find a champion on two surfaces.  I'm no exception.

12 Jan 2013 12:05 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Plod Boy Phil glad that you think your ROI is UNMATCHED on this blog,and KY Vet I think you and Plod Boy have the same accountant that figgers out your ROI.When the IRS catches up with him they will be mailing his PPs to the federal pen.

12 Jan 2013 12:07 AM
Forbidden Apple

Tampa Bay

Race 8- #1 This Is How 9-2

stalk & pounce move,weak beyers,solid works for 38% trainer at the meet,2/2 on fast track

Race 9- #9 Hard To Name 9-2

stalk & pounce move,back to dirt and back to the winner's circle

Gulfstream

Race 4- #2 Side Road 6-1

first time turf,solid layoff trainer,could be a lawnmower

Race 8- #12 Which Market 3-1

deserving favorite,needs a good trip from the outside post,never runs a bad race,trainer is due for a win

Race 10- #2 Nikki's Sandcastle 5-1

looking for 3 in a row after winning from 13 post,exactas over Fifty Proof & Dominus

Santa Anita

Race 7- #1 Battle Force 9-2

always runs hard & picks up Gomez,exactas over Fly Lexis Fly & Fed Biz,doubles over No Silent & Sweet Swap

Race 8- #4 No Silent 4-1

loves to run 2nd,needs a good trip and he can win,exacta box with Sweet Swap

12 Jan 2013 12:13 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Chief Picawiina

It's all here for the record.

This is an easy one to research.

12 Jan 2013 12:21 AM
KY VET

Footlick....good luck on your trip to the middle east........safe travels.....

12 Jan 2013 12:24 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Attention hear ye hear ye master Plod Boy Phil is picking PPaul to win race 6 at SA today good luck to you hope you can convince others on here you can pic a winna and pay you $175 is that right thats what Jay Jay posted it was.Yur ROI is on the line Phil.

12 Jan 2013 12:30 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Chief Picawwina -

Any opinions on horses from you or just the same anonymous shouting whie hidden in the herd ?

12 Jan 2013 12:34 AM
KY VET

sorry predict....just looked at your gg horse.......advice? bet light.....sorry

12 Jan 2013 12:37 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Chief Picawinna -

see the following from the 'Lady Banks' thread:

Plod Boy Phil since you know the methodology best,I am patient, and can wait until you get a play that in your mind is a standout, at a good price and post it before the race on this blog.IMO that will provide you with the most credibility on this blog,then any after the fact scores.I myself rarely post any picks unless I think they are my best ideas.

Apparently,  you missed the posts I made on the nights Dec 28, Dec 29 and Dec 30 for Swagger Jack(12/29), Exeter Road (12/30) and Stanwyk (12/31) respectively.  Simply task paying attention, or so it would seem.

The subscription rate is $60/month or $720/yr.  

12 Jan 2013 12:40 AM
KY VET

plod boy....your pick is obvious contender....dont think youll get 4 to 1....but im not really onboard...on paper looks good though...

12 Jan 2013 12:46 AM
Plod Boy Phil

KY VET -

I think the 10 will draw a lot of money for obvious reasons - finish position last time, final time based speed figure, and trainer.

I think he's a standout, so the ML means little to me.

Will be betting flat and playing in an exacta with the 9.  Both will be used in rolling gimmicks that start in the 8th, as we have UGs in the next three races.  The P4 will be a 2x2x1x1 ticket.

12 Jan 2013 12:54 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Yes I posted that Plod Boy how did you get that old post? And I do remember your post of Swagger Jack and I remember your bold upgrade on a maiden that didnt hit the board.If you want I can keep a record for you and post it periodically.My only opinion that I have posted recently,you tell me what it was since you have taken the trouble to post what I wrote on here in November?

12 Jan 2013 12:55 AM
KY VET

60 dollars a month for NO PICKS!!! jay jay should charge 60 for his trouble video picks....youre probably better off people.......ill start a "horses with 4 legs" report....only 75 dollars!! SEE! i KNEW one of our hw4l horses would win!!! yea!!!!

12 Jan 2013 12:57 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Someone posted on here about no one being a champion handicapper that reminded me of something I read recently on the forms website.The guy who was the champion handicapper for the DRF tour contest quote I must have played in hundreds of contests this year.The point being if you want to win a handicapping contest its going to cost you in time and money.I hope you didnt think that this guy just walks on the track and prints money daily like the Fed.Its a lot of hard work to be a champion handicapper and yes he was very lucky that year eventhough he entered hundreds of contests.

12 Jan 2013 1:00 AM
Plod Boy Phil

KY VET -

We provide Flow and Bias figures for as many as 7 tracks every week of the year.  In additon,  we provide Grades for the three major tracks Fri-Sun, as well as holiday Monday and Pick 6 carryover days.  The Figures are unlike any other.

No need to keep ranting about what I do.  Just keep doing your thing.  I'm only an amateur.

12 Jan 2013 1:09 AM
Plod Boy Phil

The old threads area available here in the top left under the add for Pete's Locksmith Plays.

I have a very good memory.

12 Jan 2013 1:10 AM
Plod Boy Phil

KY VET -

Sounds great.

Let me know how it works out for you.

12 Jan 2013 1:12 AM
Mike Relva

KY VET

Must confess I got a laugh when recently you stated something of a slam regarding Jerry and Ann's Derby winning horse. I'm certain you would be singing a different tune if you owned him instead of them.

12 Jan 2013 1:22 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

If Pete could invite a professional gambler that has been doing this for more than a handful of years we could read on the reality of this endeavor.The average ROI is 5% for a year.Of course the amount wagered would be around a million dollars.I remember reading about the guy that won the world handicapping championship in Vegas he said his ROI was 8% for the year.Everyone remembers Beyer and his book my $50,000 year at the track.It was written in the 70s when that amount of money could buy a ton more than it can now.He sold his figures to the DRF,after writing a book about his exploits at the track using them.Why, because in the information age everyone has figures and to make that same $50,000 amount he would have to wager a million or more.

12 Jan 2013 1:23 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Well then Plod Boy Phil lets test your memory what is my most recent pic on this blog?

12 Jan 2013 1:25 AM
Mike Relva

Coldfacts

I visited Divine Park, among others last Sept.

12 Jan 2013 1:25 AM
Mike Relva

Predict

Agree with you, more about Mary Z. If you ever read her many twisted posts on NTRA. Especially the threads about breaking individuals limbs,etc. She's quite the card, which I would safely say has nothing to do about the subject of racing. She's quite the card.

12 Jan 2013 1:37 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Being skeptical and relying on what I think comes with being self-employed most of my life and living on the streets more than one time in my life.I have heard all the BS the BS from street people is as good or better than any politiians or corporate CEO.After all it is their livlihood also how they use it to panhandle.

12 Jan 2013 2:06 AM
JayJay

PBP : "  Flow players will be using the 9 Wild Student who is upgraded off a variation of the 'quick to Zip' concept.  "

How do you know they'll be using the 9 horse ?  Don't they have the option not to bet your upgrades ?  or bet your downgrades ?  Do you take their money and make the bets for them ?  Just curious about how you worded that comment.

Also,  what is your ROI in the last 2 months ?

KY VET :  I'm quite sure that when you start posting your picks on this blog, it means you already blew your budget at the track and you went home to play "virtual bet on the blog" game.  I agree, I probably should charge $60 for my "guess" picks, my ROI for 2012 was exceptional!

12 Jan 2013 4:53 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Jay Jay that dosent surprise me that your ROI was a lot higher than 5% the norm for win or win place show bettors.When someone becomes proficient at playing exotics the ROI is a lot higher than if you play well in the WPS pools.I myself like the vertical variety, but if memory serves me you excel at the horizontal type.

12 Jan 2013 7:59 AM
Pete Denk

PBP-

So you're not counting all the upgrades and "mild upgrades" you've posted that lost in your ROI?

Would you count them if they won?

It's just the bold upgrades that count?

12 Jan 2013 9:26 AM
Rusty Weisner

Pete Denk,

Yes.  Both Monmouth and Saratoga.  I played both regularly August '10 and '11.

12 Jan 2013 9:38 AM
koufax

Does Mile High Magic have a shot in the San Fernando at SA?

12 Jan 2013 10:12 AM
Coldfacts

Mr. SOS,

You continue to expose your lack of capacity to understand. Let me try again.

Many January fold are as a result of mares being placed under lights to simulate their estrous cycle. This cycle generally occurs during the spring and summer months. Some mares may be receptive to stallion in late fall. The estrous cycle is first triggered when the days begin to lengthen. By placing the mares under lights in the winter months with its shorter days, they get the impression the days are lengthening instead of shortening and thus their estrous cycle is triggered. This allows them to be receptive to stallions in winter months leading to January foals.  Most January foals are as a result of human intervention. I will always default to the schedule determined by Mother Nature.  

12 Jan 2013 10:13 AM
Pete Denk

I would be suspicious of any service that does not make picks, but then takes credit as if they endorsed a specific horse when they win. Either you give specific wagering advice, or you don't.

Same thing goes for information services (such as workout reports) who give positive reviews of multiple horses in the same race, then claim they "had the winner."

12 Jan 2013 10:13 AM
Pete Denk

Koufax-

I don't love Mile High Magic, but I don't dislike him enough to talk you off of him.

I like his chances better if Baffert scratches Fed Biz, as he seems like the other speed.

Note that Mile High goes blinkers off, a great move for Baffert.

12 Jan 2013 10:17 AM
koufax

Thank you Pete.

12 Jan 2013 10:32 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Pete -

As indicated many times here, the Graded Report is only a small part of what we provide.

Racing Flow's Bias and Flow numbers are unlike any other.  That is the true appeal.

I look forward to 50 more weeks of the Locksmith summaries.

BoRL

12 Jan 2013 10:34 AM
koufax

I also think we might see some mile high magic from Peyton Manning in Denver this afternoon.

12 Jan 2013 10:37 AM
Kevin

Playing 3 races at GP today.

Racec 4) #6 Change of Command.  Only beyer threats are coming off long layoffs.  7 for 7 in exacta.  will be short price, but might get even money.

Race 6) #13 All Alex (if draws in).  Huge improvement once moved to grass, great grass breeding for distance.  

Race 11) #9 Brat.  Biggest bet of Day.  Even race in first after poor start.  More involved from get go.  Now blinnkers.  Great trainer stats (although small population).  Maybe 10-1 odds.  

12 Jan 2013 10:41 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Pete -

The growing number of Flow Players and the dedication of those that have been with us for 2 years or more is the only endorsement we need.

The one endorsement that put us in the public eye in Jan and Feb 2009 are available for viewing on the 'About Racing Flow' page of the website.

As you were.

12 Jan 2013 10:43 AM
Pete Denk

Kevin-

I found Brat interesting also.

Moved well on turf in the debut but looked like he needed the race.

Will be using him in the pick 4, although not a single for me.

12 Jan 2013 10:48 AM
Pete Denk

PBP-

You say track bias is your unique specialty, yet you are afraid to make a call on track bias within a racecard. That will result in gigantic missed opportunities.

12 Jan 2013 10:56 AM
Pete Denk

Purple Egg and Falling Sky have scratched from the Pasco.

12 Jan 2013 10:59 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Pete -

I disagree - it has nothing to do with fear but a more practical understanding of what is required to accurately quantify' Bias. It is our belief that severe Flows in either direction are capable of overcome almost any Bias.  Therefore, as a card develops, a perceived Speed Bias in a room will lead to more riders going for the lead which leads to unfavorable Flows.  result: an off the pace type wins.

Chasing a Bias,  perceived (most likely) or otherwise based on each result is a great way to zig and zag through the day.

Subjective input impacts accuracy whether you wish to admit it or not. It would hold more water if it was done without looking at PPs or the tote or listening to the inevitable talk of a 'bias' after two races won by w-w winners.

12 Jan 2013 11:10 AM
Coldfacts

In the Ruthless Stakes take Railtown Girl. A lot does not have to be wagered as the ML is 12-1.   This Candy Ride filly out of an Orientate mare has long fluent strides. Orientate is the dam sire of Shanghia Bobby and could be emerging a n excellent broodmare sire.

12 Jan 2013 11:24 AM
Mary Zinke

Hollinger in the Fort Lauderdale.

I see that The Egg was scratched. Coldfacts, I like our longshot Divine Ambition's chances better now, lol.  Having fun at the track today. GL all.  

12 Jan 2013 11:34 AM
predict

Beginning to look like we aren't getting the true story on Purple Egg, ...spiked a fever last time, what is it this time?

12 Jan 2013 11:48 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Allright Plod Boy Phil your bold upgrade is SA 6th race Persuasive Paul. Now if you want to calculate ROI Return on Investment you have to make a calculation that requires the amount wagered and the amount returned.So what is your bold wager on the 6th at SA?(this is a maiden race)My pick in the Pasco Falling Sky has been scratched acording to Pete Denk.

12 Jan 2013 12:18 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

JayJay Falling Sky has been scratched that leaves jockey Paco Lopez with an AE mount in the 7th and a single digit odds morning line in the 8th the Gasparrilla.Do you think Lopez will ship into Tampa for just these two chances?

12 Jan 2013 12:30 PM
JayJay

PBP : You didn't answer my question, maybe you missed it...but I'm interested in wheteher you make the actual bets for your users?  

Growing number of users does not mean you have a good product, just means that you're good at marketing it.  There's also a flipside to that number, you didn't say how much have continued to use your product after the initial sign up.  Have you had any new users from this blog ?

CHIEF : Yeah I know, I was actually kidding about bragging lol.  I don't play WPS at all, there's really not much money to be made until you invest a big amount of money and I don't like taking my winnings back to the track.  I put those away and start new with my weekly budget.   I think you've done really well when you post your picks here as well, I remember you schooling KY Vet once as well lol.  There's a quite a few here that I watch when they post their picks because they actually know what they're doing.

My plays for the day, the full report includes P3 and P4 combinations for a small fee of $20  :

SA :

01 :  3

04 :  2, 10

06 :  11

07 :  2, 5

09 :  12, 6

GP :

06 :  12, 11

10:   8, 3

11 :  3

TB: Pasco

09: 9, 1, 6

Note : No Refunds.  You can bet these or you can ignore it but I'm not responsible if they all didn't hit the board and you lost all your money and your family kicks you out of the house, don't call me.

12 Jan 2013 1:05 PM
Plod Boy Phil

For what it's worth, the DRF Race of the Day features Racing Flow figures in the free Formulator PPs offered.  

The figures found under the company line in bold type belong to us.

Today's race is the San Fernando.

12 Jan 2013 1:11 PM
KY VET

Pete...did he REALLY just say, that jockeys ride harder early? on a bias day? therefore you bet closers? what the...........what good is a bias then?  so you go back, see closers win late in the day...and claim it was speed bias track? answer for everything...........this guy should stop talking.......hes losing credibility

12 Jan 2013 1:12 PM
JayJay

CHIEF : He's probably already there, since I don't see him riding any horses at GP.  It sucks cause Falling Sky was one of my big plays for the day.  I play Paco when he's 6-1 or more.  I've been lucky playing jockeys lately.

12 Jan 2013 1:13 PM
KY VET

aqu race 3....horse with problems.....dropping.....starforaday........win

12 Jan 2013 1:23 PM
KY VET

pete......boy has had bold upgrades run well....its small sample size.....let the people decide..........we understand he doesnt bet..........who claims 100 dollar winners were actually bet? relax.....its a blog...

12 Jan 2013 1:32 PM
KY VET

aqu race 4 why do i think enaawi will win by 6? big bet...win#8

12 Jan 2013 1:54 PM
KY VET

darn.....my 600win bet only won by 4......i guess i was wrong.....ha! how did i get 9/5 on 1/5 horse? gotta take advantage when that happens...

12 Jan 2013 1:58 PM
KY VET

I dont know about you...but that pasco race is way too tough for me....i see a cattle drive in stretch.....ill pass....good luck all

12 Jan 2013 2:01 PM
Plod Boy Phil

KY VET -

Starforday is such a noble warrior.  He's been a favorite of ours for years.  

12 Jan 2013 2:41 PM
Plod Boy Phil

re: The Pasco

Despite the scratches,  I'll stick by the downgrade of the new favorite, Dynamic Sky.

12 Jan 2013 2:43 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

PBP you still havent responded to the question of what is your bet on the bold upgrade of Persuasive Paul in the 6th at SA,without the bet we cant figger out if you are winning or losing much less ROI.

JayJay yeah I tried the jockey angle by itself the very first time I went to Calder.I have also tried it afterwords, but for a jockey and his mounts at the same track.I think when jockeys leave the track they are based at and ship to another location it is a factor horseplayers should pay attention to.I dont mean any jockey, I mean for example like P Lopez a high percentage jockey that rides speed well in sprints.He only has one mount on the card at Tampa if his AE dosent draw in.If that is the case look for his mount to make money at  where the connections get paid.If not the only reason that I can think of right now where he would ship for one mount is because he has made an arrangement with the owner or trainer to ride another horse,or be the first call jockey at a meet.

12 Jan 2013 2:55 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

JayJay Im not so sure when Lopez got on a plane to go to Tampa,but even if he is flying on a commercial airliner instead of a private jet like a NetJets once off the ground Miami to Tampa takes about a half hour.I think he knew before he left that he was probably only gonna have ONE mount and he knew that Falling Sky would be scratched hours before the betting public did.

12 Jan 2013 3:10 PM
predict

TB r-7, #10,call Maritza, good bet

12 Jan 2013 3:15 PM
predict

will get it back with Martha's moon

12 Jan 2013 3:40 PM
KY VET

aqu race 8 #2 kimono should be there....wp

12 Jan 2013 3:46 PM
Pete Denk

Just hit the tri in the Ruthless Stakes with Lady Banks, the subject of a previous blog here.

Lady Banks, one of today's Locksmith Smart Plays, also was the top horse on herd dynamics at the 2011 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky July yearling sale.

Trifecta in 6-horse field paid $151 for a buck.

12 Jan 2013 3:56 PM
KY VET

tprace7 really like #4 limerick lady! wp....

12 Jan 2013 4:12 PM
KY VET

limerick lady!!!!!!! huge bet at 3 to 1.............cha.......................ching!

12 Jan 2013 4:16 PM
KY VET

nice hit pete! we taking their money today!

12 Jan 2013 4:52 PM
Kevin

Horrible day handicapping.  Back at it tomorrow.

12 Jan 2013 5:48 PM
KY VET

sa race 6 wine list #9.....like the 11 also (13 to 1)

12 Jan 2013 6:08 PM
KY VET

nice get plod.....both chalks ran great.......

12 Jan 2013 6:22 PM
Pete Denk

In FG 8 I like Request a Puck on the drop off the troubled try vs. better.

12 Jan 2013 6:26 PM
KY VET

gg race 6 ....9 foreseeable future! wp   prime.....9/5 2nd fav

12 Jan 2013 6:27 PM
Pete Denk

Rough trip 3rd for Request a Puck. Rallied trough traffic...

12 Jan 2013 6:30 PM
KY VET

both picks got 2nd....

12 Jan 2013 6:32 PM
KY VET

wow...san ferando looks like a wall of horses at wire.....

12 Jan 2013 6:36 PM
Pete Denk

I'm trying Guilt Trip in the San Fernando. 2nd-time Baffert. Ran pretty well in the Malibu, and that was a fast race.

12 Jan 2013 6:42 PM
Pete Denk

Guilt Trip runs a troubled third at 7-1. Flying late after traffic filled trip...

12 Jan 2013 6:49 PM
KY VET

upgrade on guilt trip.....

12 Jan 2013 6:50 PM
Pete Denk

LoL, yeah. Talamo mucked that trip up.

12 Jan 2013 6:52 PM
KY VET

gg race 8 #4 tossthedice wp

12 Jan 2013 7:23 PM
KY VET

what messed you up pete was the speed getting left....on guilt...he ran his hair off

12 Jan 2013 7:25 PM
KY VET

tossthedice lost all chance on backside.....delta race 3 #9 illusive halo wp

12 Jan 2013 7:33 PM
KY VET

sa race 9 #7 generations...lost by 26..5 and 9 lengths...wake up horse!!!wp

12 Jan 2013 7:37 PM
koufax

Way to go Phil 28-1

12 Jan 2013 7:50 PM
koufax

Phil you saved my day.Thanks

12 Jan 2013 7:57 PM
Plod Boy Phil

You are welcome.

Most of the 200 regular visitors to that page on the weekends rarely say thank you.

Hope you had the Bold Upgrade Persuasive Paul (SA 6th) I put here last night.

12 Jan 2013 8:15 PM
Pete Denk

Nice pick on Persuasive Paul earlier.

Phil and KY Vet-

My contact information is not a secret (but I don't want to post it here). It is available at www.thomasherdingtechnique.com under contacts. E-mail me.

12 Jan 2013 8:27 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Plod Boy Phil The good is that for people that are thinking of subscribing to your service Persuasive Paul won in the 6th at SA and paid over 10 dollars on a bold upgrade.The bad is that Dynamic Sky which you posted that even with the scratches was a downgrade won the Pasco.So since you havent named any betting strategy you bet the base bet of 2 dollars to win, and have a profit of 8.40.

12 Jan 2013 8:28 PM
Pedigree Ann

Forbidden Apple -

Let me explain to you the French expression 'tour de force,' which has been current in English for some time as well. It means an unusual feat of strength or skill, and I used it in reference to Royal Delta's race in the BC Distaff, wherein she set a fast pace and repelled every challenger.

12 Jan 2013 8:31 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Lets' add today's $10.40 to the other 5 bold upgrade winners.

11 bolds

6 winners returning $73.20

12 Jan 2013 8:48 PM
KY VET

ded race6 upset #6 lil lalu

12 Jan 2013 8:56 PM
KY VET

ahead all day....just fell behind.......best bet of day either win big or lose ,,,,,ded race 7 #9 SIR MAXWELL....big time w/p

12 Jan 2013 9:06 PM
Mary Zinke

GL, KY.

Congrats to all of the winners today.  At least the field trip to the track was fun.

12 Jan 2013 9:13 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Sorry Plod Boy Phil if only tout services like yours we could use an accounting like this seeing the world in rose colored glases.As far as I know you picked Swagger Jack who won but you also had a loser dont remember his name.I am starting fresh with today 2 dollars bet 8.40 profit, ROI after one race here is the calculation if not in accord with the formula consult wilkopedia ROI=gain from investment-cost of investment divided by cost of investment in this case 10.40-2.00=8.40/2.00=420%

12 Jan 2013 9:21 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Bold Upgrades here:  11

Bold Upgrades Winners:  6

Gabriel Charles, Distinctiv Passion, Swagger Jack, Exeter Road, Stanwyk, Persuasive Paul

Total win returns = $73.20

12 Jan 2013 9:38 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Anyone wondering what Koufax meant by 'way to go Phil 28-1' ?

Or 'Thanks Phil you saved my day' ?

12 Jan 2013 9:40 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Bold Upgrades here:  11

Bold Upgrades Winners:  6

Gabriel Charles, Distinctiv Passion, Swagger Jack, Exeter Road, Stanwyk, Persuasive Paul

Total win returns = $73.20

12 Jan 2013 9:40 PM
Mary Zinke

See? It works :)

12 Jan 2013 9:42 PM
Mary Zinke

I meant the GL wish worked.

12 Jan 2013 9:49 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Mary -

Did you get a good look at Persuasive Paul today at SA ? Thought he looked fantastic from what I could see of them in the parade and going to the gate....calm, ears alert.  

12 Jan 2013 9:58 PM
KY VET

good news bad news.......good news-best bet won easy......bad news...my huge bet at small track knocked him from 4 to 1 to 2 to one..........ill have to settle for the1,200 i won.............

12 Jan 2013 10:01 PM
KY VET

thanks mary.....rough day...roller coaster...only won 900....tomorrows another day...........notice my best bets are doing good...........

12 Jan 2013 10:05 PM
KY VET

plod boy deserves credit for the recent postings......period.......his mistake is, he implies he bet the 28 to one shots, 50 to 1 shots.....which is fine.....i get the feeling he doesnt bet much.......but he deserves credit for the last few......chief relax..................what is it about this blog? that people dont give credit? lets see anyone just post random race after random race.......again, plod just gives a report...he doesnt tell people to bet these.....just so happens, alot have won lately.......200 subscribers? JIM JONES had 600.........DONT DRINK THE KOOL AID!!!!!!

12 Jan 2013 10:12 PM
Footlick

Plod Boy Phil- It isn't your successful upgrades that they care about.  It is your unsuccessful ones that they focus on.  Hope you keep being successful and good luck!

12 Jan 2013 10:12 PM
Pete Denk

I scored well on Lady Banks but am even more excited because she was THT's top ranked filly at the 2011 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky July yearling sale. There were probably ~250 fillies in that sale, so this is a nice result for THT's developing bloodstock research.

12 Jan 2013 10:22 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Thanks Footlick -

My fault for not being more cautious with regards to the horses mentioned in passing or the regular grades posted here without names or a write-up.

12 Jan 2013 10:31 PM
Pete Denk

Was kinda off for the rest of the day.

Locksmith went 1-for-6. Had a couple SCR horses and a couple others get overbet.

Tried to rally late at FG and SA but had two tough luck 3rds. Guilt Trip would have been nice at 7-1.

Will review Locksmith tomorrow.

This Packers-49ers game is excellent.

Phil- don't keep linking to your website (those posts will be deleted), and follow the rule about not redboarding winners u didn't post here. Feel free to share all the picks u want. Nice pick on Persuasive Paul. Let's watch for the other horse that finished behind Manando (Curly Top) to return.

12 Jan 2013 10:32 PM
Plod Boy Phil

The number 200 mentioned was the number of regular visitors to the Upgrades & Analysis page of our website on a Saturday.

They all saw the posting of Chasing the Heat who was posted there at 10;24am ET.

Koufax not only has a great fastball,  but great sensibility.

12 Jan 2013 10:33 PM
Plod Boy Phil

KY VET -

Last night, I indicated that my SA Late P4 ticket would be a 2x2x1x1 play.

One of the 7th race grades was scratched as was the lone upgrade in the 8th.  The anchor horse was Chasing the Heat - one of two free plays I gave out on site this morning.

12 Jan 2013 10:38 PM
Mary Zinke

I didn't see the 6th at SA yet, Phil.  Nice pick or upgrade for you.  

12 Jan 2013 10:38 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Mary -

Made the assumption when you talked about being at 'the track' for BC that the track was SA.

Poorly done,  me

Disregard inquiry.

12 Jan 2013 10:47 PM
Plod Boy Phil

I'm completely bewildered by this growing notion that I don't bet our upgrades.

Bitter group,  this.

12 Jan 2013 10:52 PM
Footlick

KY VET- most don't bet everything they tout.  Thoro-graph doesn't bet everything they tout.  Globeform doesn't bet everything they tout.  They bet what they think is a smart bet.  Whether it is Phil's system, or Jerry's system or Pete's system, they are just putting it out there and it is up to the person to bet what they think is a smart bet.  Part of the process is to figure out what is the smart bet and what isn't.  I learned alot reading everyone's interpretations of the data on the Thoro-graph site. Same data, so many different interpretations! I was taught a long time ago, look at all races, analyze all races, bet the few races that are worth it.  Now, I rarely bet Euro races, so I really don't have any input to these blogs as they are US race/bet driven.

12 Jan 2013 10:53 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Pete -

Will do.

I will not be contributing much in the future.

12 Jan 2013 10:55 PM
Mary Zinke

Phil, I took my sons to Turf Paradise today. We left before the 6th at SA. I traveled to SA with my daughter for the BC. (Even though you said to disregard your inquiry)

12 Jan 2013 11:03 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Mary -

Thanks for clarifying.

I go to Scottsdale every March for Spring training.  Made it to TuP a couple of times - it's a nice change of pace to just relax and watch the animals. It's not one of our tracks.

12 Jan 2013 11:16 PM
Footlick

That should be rarely bet US races.  Sorry for the typo.  

Phil- I've enjoyed reading your posts.  Good luck in the future.  One day I'll drop by the site and say Hi.

Take care.

12 Jan 2013 11:22 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Footlick -

Sounds good.

Let me know when you are at AP - I'll send along anything worthy of interest between your sunning and cocktails.

12 Jan 2013 11:31 PM
JayJay

Footlick: I don't think it's fair to say we were just focusing on his failed hits, you have to read his posts as well.  Pete brought the fact that he's not being forthcoming about his failed upgrades/downgrades and only counting his successful upgrades when claiming his ROI is "unmatched".  For a statistician that's all about numbers, he forgot (or intentionally forgot) to count his failed upgrades and downgrades.

Even with his upgrades hitting, it added up to roughly about $55 for the last 2 months.  He charges $60/month.  You do the math, do you think his ROI is good ?  If I'm not mistaken, his users would be in the red with the amount they pay as well as what they have lost on his failed picks.  Even if his users hit his upgrades at $100 bets, that would still be the same because we'll have to assume his users also had $100 bets in his failed picks.  I believe he has more failed upgrades/downgrades than successful ones.  I just don't think his posts about his product being one of the best out there... the results doesn't support it.

13 Jan 2013 3:49 AM
brad auger

I own FALLING SKY's half sister , a 4 yr old filly by Grand Slam.

Any idea why he scratched??

13 Jan 2013 5:56 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Pete-

re: Curly Top

Thanks for pointing out what I told bloggers here the week after Manando's over-hyped MSW win:  Upgrade Paul and Curly.  Curly will not be a bold grade,  since he was DGed two back and UGed last out, whereas Paul had back to back upgrades.

Better late than never I suppose.  

13 Jan 2013 10:39 AM
KY VET

Jay Jay.....the dude had a hot streak.....give him credit.......you dont even read a form.......we get its your deal, no matter what, you dont think people win.....we get you think you guess better than anyone.......you dont handicap.....the dude had a streak.......now he will stop giving horses because he knows what will happen........we get it....

13 Jan 2013 10:47 AM
Pete Denk

I thought Manando ran pretty well first time vs. winners when stepping up in class and finishing 3rd in the G3 Sham S.

Beyer gave him an 89 (same as maiden win). Not sure what BRIS gave him.

From a developmental standpoint, I like it when maiden winners pair their speed figure first vs. winners. Those types often move forward next out.

13 Jan 2013 10:51 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Vet relax as well as any of the other posters on here that think I am critisizing Plod Boy Phil.I havent played this game daily since 2010.In that year I made a profit betting multiple races almost every day.I didnt bet every race, I start simply by looking at the races contained by only ONE factor.After that I get the PPs and I know how to get the vast majority of the races Im betting FREE.I rarely download an entire card at ONE track.Thats what most players do thinking that they will be able to find the right races to bet on that card.I dont do that I start with a HIGH PERCENTAGE FACTOR.Dont ask me what it is because 1 most of us on this blog have been playing this game for years and know what works for them and the way we think. 2 I dont need to defend my strategy Im not selling anything.3Its so simple I have thought about writing a book(believe me Ill have an editor)or having my own service,but its so simple at least the way I percieve it that neophytes could do it without much trouble.I think to monetize it more effiently would be a ONE TIME THING.

At the moment Im not playing with much of a bankroll and my primary objective is buiding up that bankroll without much risk to at least what it was in 2010.

Im on the Derby trail as a handicapper because I have NO DOUBT in my mind that either Im very good at betting this race or Im very lucky and have convinced myself that I will win something every year,posibly picking up all the marbles one of these years.

In any sport having ability and then using that ability to play with confidence ALWAYS works well.

 Phil I will look at your bold upgrades that you post on site with the idea of betting it as part of a vertical exacta.Time permitting I will keep my log of the upgrades and downgrades  with my regular postings on site.

I also participate in another endeavor which can be considered a game of chance,and I HAVE TO devote more time to that than horseracing because it has more of an affect on my life.

13 Jan 2013 11:00 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Pete-

I already pointed out that Manando ran well in the Sham.  The race came back perfectly 'neutral' for Flow and Bias.

He is now 'just another horse'.

13 Jan 2013 11:12 AM
Footlick

JayJay- I read everyone's posts on here.  I just choose not to comment much anymore because of the animosity.  If you assume that people blindly bet everything a system touts and blindly throws out everything a system doesn't tout, then you can come to that conclusion. But, most people who are willing to pay for data from a site like Plod Boy Phil's or Thoro-graph or Ragozin, or Globeform, etc, assume that people will learn about the data and use their own interpretation.  They giv the data and interpret every race because that is why people are paying, but not every race is something to be bet.  If you read the Ask the Experts section on Thoro-graph you will see that data can be interpreted in many different ways.  Therefore, there are people who will pay for the info but not agree with the interpretation.  But maybe that is the way you do bet.  I don't know.  Anyway, I must have missed your comment congratulating him on his touting Persuasive Paul, since you don't focus only on his failures.  If I did miss it, I apologize but I couldn't find it.  I also would like to know if you have found a system out there, or if anyone has for that matter, that is infalliable and when they say a horse will run well, the horse always run well and when they say a horse won't run well the horse always runs poorly?  I haven't found that, and I have explored many because I find them interesting.  If you or anyone else knows of one, please let all of us know because I'm sure we all would like to find something infallible.  Many here come off as "experts" and delight in being contrary. If that makes people feel better, then so be it.  Maybe I'm just on the wrong blog.

13 Jan 2013 11:19 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

For a vertical exotic player a 20 horse field with colts that I have followed over the course of their most recent races watching their races,as opposed to trying to play off a peice of paper works for me.

Its not just watching the races but knowing that THE ENTIRE FIELD with a few exceptions are running this race TO WIN not as a prep.Believe me I have followed horses and I KNOW WITHOUT A DOUBT that todays thorobred dosent have as many races in their career as those of decades ago,so they run more than ONE race as a prep for a shot at bigger winnings and more prestigeous races that impact breeding rights.There is just too much money nowadays that the ONE HIT WONDERS are more prevalent.

With the Derby I can figure out which owners just want to run their colt to be at this event.

13 Jan 2013 11:19 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

We are still recovering economically from the effects of a recession in the US.Now IMO is not the right time to try a ONE TIME THING which could fail.

13 Jan 2013 11:24 AM
Pete Denk

The Locksmith analysis went 6: 1-2-1 this week (2 plays were SCR).

Santa Anita

Race 1 3:30 ET

Maiden 3yo fillies (7 furlongs on dirt)

3 Tizmetizyou (5-2 ML odds) had a useful debut sprinting on the turf. She stalked a solid pace, was blocked turning for home, steadied, then showed some ability and grit to finish 5th, beaten 2 ½ lengths. The winner Escape Act returned to finish 4th, beaten a neck, in a stakes race. Tizmetizyou is bred more for dirt, and she should move forward here in her second lifetime start.

Odds: 1.8

Result: 2nd. Opened up a two-length lead after putting away the pacesetter, but got run down by 2nd-time starter Branding (nice ride by Gary Stevens)

13 Jan 2013 11:30 AM
Footlick

BTW, Phil, thanks for the offer.  And how did you know Arlington was a great track to sun and sip?  It is a beautiful facility.

13 Jan 2013 11:33 AM
Pete Denk

Santa Anita Race 6 6:05 ET

Maiden 3yos (One mile on turf)

10 Wine List (2-1 ML odds) ran big in his turf debut when caught 3-4 wide on both turns. His final quarter in :23-4 was very good on the day, and the top two drew off from the rest of the field. If he can run back to that effort, he will be extremely tough to beat. He’s a win bet for me at the 2-1 morning line and a pick-4 single.

Odds: .90

Result: Grossly overbet from the time the pool opened, I couldn't play him since he was never close to my 2-1 value line. Wine List ran well, losing a photo to Persuasive Paul, who exited the potential key maiden race won by Manando.

13 Jan 2013 11:34 AM
Pete Denk

Aqueduct

Race 8 3:48 ET

$75,000 Ruthless Stakes 3yo fillies (6 furlongs on dirt)

5 Lady Banks (7-2 ML odds) was extremely impressive in her debut when finishing second to Live Lively. She broke slowly from the rail, advanced outside, then was steered inside, where she split horses and was rallying inside the winner late. Live Lively came back and won an allowance race by 11 lengths in her next start, and the 2-3-4 finishers also returned to win. Lady Banks has shown a lot of good attributes in her first two starts, and she should be able to stalk all that speed inside of her and pounce in the lane.

Odds: 2.90

Result: Won impressively by 2 lengths after a 4-wide trip. I remain very high on this filly. $1 tri paid $151 for a buck, my best result of the day.

13 Jan 2013 11:37 AM
Pete Denk

Glfstream Race 6 3:05 ET

Maiden 3yos (1 1/16 miles on turf)

4 Efficient Market (8-1 ML odds) had a trouble-filled debut race, then took a step forward in his second start when well beaten by a very strong winner (Rydilluc, who stepped up off the maiden win and won an allowance race at GP by 6 lengths.) The time Efficient Market ran probably sells him short, as the turf course at Aqu on 11-23 was very slow despite the firm rating. Efficient Market made two moves in that race – an early acceleration and stop, then the rally to grab second on the wire. There is additional upside here. Good post, some tactical speed, and a rider switch to Joel Rosario all are positive factors. I love him at the morning line and will look to key him 1st-2nd in the exotics. Perhaps my value play of the day.

Odds: 9.10

Result: Late jock switch from Rosario (my fav jock) to Cohen (one of my least fav) was a bad sign. Efficient Market indeed got a bad ride, but really didn't fire, and the race was dominated by a pair of well-bred firsters. I will stick with Efficient Market for another race, as I believe he is better than he showed here.

13 Jan 2013 11:41 AM
Pete Denk

Gulfstream Race 8 4:05 ET

Optional Claiming $62,500/NW2X (One mile on turf)

5 Exothermic (10-1 ML odds) flashed graded stakes talent at this time last year on the Gulfstream lawn. Out with an injury for eight  months, he ran well to get 2nd at Keeneland in his comeback despite some traffic. The winner that day (Miami Deco) came back and ran 3rd in a strong Grade 3 on the Keeneland turf. The horse Exothermic beat by a nose that day (Temeraine) came back and won a NW2X at Churchill by 3 ½ lengths with a big speed figure.  Exothermic’s Nov. 23 race at Churchill is a toss (he was behind horses through the entire stretch run). Now you get him on a seven-week freshening, with perfectly spaced works, a good post, and a jock switch to Castellano. Doubt he’ll be 10-1 like the morning line suggests, but something around 6-1 would still be enough for me to take a shot with this very well-bred colt.

Odds: 4.00

Result: Another tout that fell well below my value line, Exothermic opened as the chalk. He was sent to the lead and tired badly. This result ends my support for a horse that looked like graded stakes material in early 2012.

13 Jan 2013 11:44 AM
Pete Denk

Tampa Bay Downs

Race 7 3:14 ET

Claiming $16,000 NW2L F&M (1 1/16 miles on turf)

4 Sweetdreamsgallore (6-1 ML odds) goes second off the layoff here following a troubled trip that saw her boxed on the turn and checked hard in early stretch. Her previous turf race at Delaware fits at this level, and note she came back to work a fast 5f on Jan. 5. With nine starts (only three on the turf), she’s still relatively lightly raced compared to a lot of these fillies and mares who are still eligible for a NW2.

Odds: 6.10

Result: Middle moved into traffic but couldn't rekick late. Finished third.

13 Jan 2013 11:46 AM
Pete Denk

Two weeks into 2013, the Locksmith Analysis is 14: 5-3-2.

$2 win bet ROI stands at a healthy $3.06 (and that includes the horses that went off below my value line).

Higher ROI if I exempt those.

13 Jan 2013 11:51 AM
Pete Denk

Let's all try to be a little thicker skinned and more civil to our fellow posters.

The Derby trail heats up with the Lecomte S. at Fairgrounds next weekend. Avie's Quality, trying dirt for the first time, is one of the probables.

13 Jan 2013 11:53 AM
Pete Denk

Still haven't heard why Purple Egg scratched from the Pasco.

With him out, I played my second choice Divine Ambition, who ran well at 10-1, but couldn't hold off the entry (at 3-to-5).

13 Jan 2013 11:56 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

I dont know about the rest of you but knowing the final goal in a series of prep races helps me to make a decision on if a colt belongs and will be ready to win on the first Saturday in May

If you follow any other horses with the intent of catching and betting their peak effort,it is much harder if you dont know the race their pointing to.

In todays world some trainers will realize they will have a better chance in the 2nd or 3rd in the series of races,the Preakness and the Belmont.Having more data points helps me in making a decision as opposed to more of a guessing aspect of horseplying picking a winner off of reading a piece of paper the PPs.

Thats one of the reasons the majority lose a LOT more than they win they are doing what everyone else does following the herd so to write(speak)

13 Jan 2013 11:59 AM
koufax

Pete I asked you yesterday about Mile High Magic in the San Fernando you could not endorse him he broke in the air and was eased at 4-1.

13 Jan 2013 12:12 PM
Forbidden Apple

Pedigree Ann,

Yes, Royal Delta dominated my Miss Aurelia. If she is so good, then she will step up and face colts in a Grade I race.

KY Vet,

Good call on skipping the Pasco, I'm done with Tampa Bay donkeys.

Plod Boy Phil,

I bet Paul to win and boxed him up with the favorite, nice pick. Any idea of how Mario Gutierrez is? He took a wicked fall in the last race yesterday, he went down hard. My picks were ugly, I thought Nikki's Sandcastle was kept in jail by Lanarie. He had no business being so far back. And Battle Force looks like he needs to go back to the turf. Paul capped a 3 race win streak for me, I hit Backseat Memories(Gulf.) and My My My Maria (F.G.) before the S.A. 6th went off.

Was anyone else impressed by Calistoga in the 9th at Gulfstream? This filly blazed down the track, stakes caliber for sure.

13 Jan 2013 12:13 PM
Footlick

Chief- you are certainly right that knowing a final goal is helpful.  There will be horses on the TC trail who aren't going to be in the Derby, per se but can be major players in the preps.  Also knowing the patterns of certain trainers can help immensely.  I think I am agreeing with you when I say the more data I can accumulate the better for me.  And the personal interpretation of all the data was the point I was trying to make.  

13 Jan 2013 12:18 PM
Pete Denk

Forbidden Apple-

Calistoga, the Speightstown filly you mentioned, looked to be an awesome physical specimen.

Mott doesn't win too often first out either...

13 Jan 2013 12:53 PM
JayJay

Footlick : No, I never posted congratulating him on Persuasive Paul because I didn't even know he posted anything about that horse.  You made my point, there are no products out there that will consistenly give you winners but PBP seems to think his product is.  My whole point is, his product isn't any better than any of the services out there.  For him to post such claims is false advertising.  And to answer your question, no, I haven't found a system that would help me pick winners, that's why I stick to my own.  I'm not paying for any service unless I see results specially at $60/month to have someone analyze the races for me and really only looks at splits.   I know he'll pick winners, I have no doubts about it, just don't think his product gives him any advantage and I don't think he'll be consistently picking winners using his product.

If you have forgotten, I'm the first one that asked about his product because initially I thought it was a good product.  It wasn't until I inquired more about it that I realized it wasn't for me.  I even defended him from some of the folks here for getting slammed about his product but his posts started to become ridiculous regarding how well his product worked when the results doesn't really support it.

He also believes the only true fact is numbers when it comes to handicapping and dismisses / questions other people way of handicapping.  In his world, nothing works except reading numbers.  I think you missed those comments from Phil, in fact, it seems you missed a lot of his posts other than the ones questioning him about his picks.  He questioned/insinuated that my handicapping is pure luck, I really don't care honestly but I would still comment on his comments because... well, it's a blog.

KY VET :  Give credit ?? This coming from you... LOL.  You're a comedian.  You make me laugh specially that you can't get over the fact I don't read form lol.  Must be frustrating for you.

13 Jan 2013 1:20 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Footlick -

re: AP

I've never been there,  but from what I can see,  it has that look.

You also mentioned some weeks ago that it is (one) of your favorite spot to go to enjoy a relaxing day at the races.

13 Jan 2013 1:34 PM
Plod Boy Phil

JayJay -

This is my last post directed at you. It is one more than I intended and one more than CP will get.

The reason I insinuated a 'lottery ticket' type score was because you posted the race as 2,9,8 early in the day, then you apparently showed a winning ticket on facebook (no chain of custody provided) in which the 'key' was the 45-1 shot that ran 3rd while none of the three posted horses were in the top 4 (or 5).

Carry on and BoRL

13 Jan 2013 1:41 PM
Mary Zinke

I'll use Scatman since Swagger Jack was scratched from the Hal's Hope.

Change to Pants On Fire, Associate, Soldat, Scatman.

Personal fav Jeranimo in the San Gabriel.

13 Jan 2013 1:41 PM
Footlick

JayJay- As I said before, but maybe you missed that part of my post, I read everyone's posts.  I know exactly what he said about his product.  It is the same that Thoro-graph and Ragozin say about their product.  And, if I remember correctly, he is not the first who has called your handicapping luck, so to be bothered by it enough to call him out and not call everyone else out about it since Jason's blog is interesting.  It doesn't matter to me what method someone uses if they are happy with it.  I still find it interesting that it bothers you so much.  Chief, Pete and KY all have had their differences with Plod Boy Phil, but they all acknowledged his pick and all congratulated him.  You somehow didn't even see his pick, but at the same time you accuse me of missing posts by him.  Again, interesting.  Anyway, I hope you have a very successful handicapping season.

13 Jan 2013 1:44 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Forbidden Apple -

Nice set.

Looks like paul may have inherited some of Grandpa Lure's tenacity.

I still recall vividly the war between Lure and Devil His Due.  Tom Durkin's race call still sends a shiver down my spine:  "They are leg weary, but Brave"

Great, great stuff, that.

13 Jan 2013 1:55 PM
JayJay

Footlick : The fact that you're now saying it bothered me that he questioned my handicapping tells me you're not understanding my point at all about PBP.  Like you said, Jason, Draynay and others have questioned my handicapping, I really don't care because I win more than most of those people.  I'm quite happy with my handicapping.  I'm not sure where you got that it bothers me what PBP thinks of my handicapping.  And it's not about me questioning his handicapping, I've told him before I wish for him to pick winners for the sake of his users who are paying an absurd amount for his picks.  This discussion was about PBP's claim that his product is better than anyone's, that his ROI is unmatched.  If you tell me that those two statements are accurate, then I'll stop.   Well, I'll stop anyway cause I think we've beaten this discussion to death lol.  I hope you do well with your handicapping this season as well.

PBP :  What I post here is what I handicap the night before or in the morning.  Just because I posted some horses here doesn't mean that's all I bet.  People who actually go to the track and bet live racing often finds things that alter their picks.   You can learn this type of handicapping if you're willing but judging from your posts, you're not willing to go beyond your database and that's perfectly fine too.

13 Jan 2013 2:55 PM
Footlick

JayJay- you seem to have many points about him.  Have a good day.

13 Jan 2013 3:31 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Racing Flow provides Flow (race shape) and Bias figures for as many as 7 tracks each week.

13 Jan 2013 3:48 PM
derbygal

Just trying a couple of races at S.A. today.

R2 4,1,5

R7 4,7,8

13 Jan 2013 3:50 PM
Ranagulzion

Carlos in Cali,

Great call in the Pasco. The lay-off seems to have done your handicapping some good. Try to avoid the "bounce" when the next Derby prep comes up (LOL). Dynamic Sky looked really good ...but I'm still skeptical of the AP Indy? Storm Cat close up pedigree.

13 Jan 2013 4:15 PM
derbygal

missed R2 6.5 turf, next 6.5 turf, R6 will try 7,6,1,10

13 Jan 2013 4:23 PM
Kevin

2-1 for Csaba in the Hal's Hope is a gift.  Keeying in the tri and super.  

13 Jan 2013 4:50 PM
KY VET

how does jay handicap the night before? with dice? darts? he doesnt use a form...

13 Jan 2013 5:06 PM
KY VET

remember,,,,,im the one that posted mandano has problems......we will see huh?

13 Jan 2013 5:07 PM
KY VET

does anyone believe to pasco is a derby prep? come on man!

13 Jan 2013 5:09 PM
Plod Boy Phil

re: Csaba

Huge race - time for a little break

13 Jan 2013 5:10 PM
Carlos in Cali

Thanks Ranagulzion,

It was pretty easy to figure-out Dynamic Sky was the class of the field. He was much the best and would've broken the Stakes record with a smoother trip.Not bad for a horse that was labeled a 'Downgrade' by PBP,et al, after his troubled-trip in the BCJ. He was facing much lesser this time and it showed.

Too bad they scratched Purple Egg,it made the race unbettable for me.

13 Jan 2013 5:38 PM
Carlos in Cali

Ranagulzion,

There's yet another Slew/AP Indy lined colt to look-out for this coming spring:

Demonic > a grand-looking son of Bernardini who just broke his maiden today @ Santa Anita in his debut going 7f. He made a big move heading into the top of the lane,idled a bit and just got-up by a head. Clearly he's still a bit green, but has loads of talent. Evidently John Sadler is very high on him and is expecting him to be on the TC Trail soon,stay tuned...

13 Jan 2013 5:56 PM
koufax

Why does everyone here kill Phil he posts free picks that win .

13 Jan 2013 6:00 PM
koufax

FG late DD 10$ horse with a 63$ horse paid 223$ isn't that a little light.

13 Jan 2013 6:06 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Koufax -

Thought we were going to get home today at 9-1.  Place price took away some of the pain.

13 Jan 2013 6:20 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Koufax -

The parlay is $315...so yes, it seems a bit light.  

The ML on the second one may have had some impact.

13 Jan 2013 6:21 PM
Mike Relva

JayJay

Jason suffers from an over inflated sense of importance.

13 Jan 2013 6:22 PM
koufax

Sylvia T ran very well Phil good jockey trainer combo will look for her next time.

13 Jan 2013 6:34 PM
koufax

The comment I made about good jockey trainer was wrong it's not that good in 62 mounts for Morrison Luzzi is 8-8-11.

13 Jan 2013 6:42 PM
JayJay

KY Vet : I'm not surprised because you're dependent on the form.  There are other ways to handicap races.  I've explained it to you before but it seems you can't grasp it lol.  Keep doing what you're doing though.

Mike Relva :  I had a good run with my disagreements with him, I will take credit for getting him away from his dependency on Beyer figures but I"m sure he won't admit it lol.

13 Jan 2013 7:05 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Mary -

Jeranimo - nice

13 Jan 2013 7:08 PM
Mary Zinke

Yeah, Jeranimo !

13 Jan 2013 7:11 PM
Mary Zinke

Phil, thanks. Very nice to see him get a win.  He ran one of his fastest personal mile times in the BC, and that was excellent company, even though he finished 6th. Not sure about the Citation, but I gave him the excuse of being tired, since he's such a favorite of mine. I screamed him home.  That has to help, lol.

13 Jan 2013 7:26 PM
KY VET

santa anita race.....9..........#7 duke street king....hard to see him run bad......#10 big fav...looks good..but 9/2 on the 7 is too high.....wp #7   kathy walsh great trainer.....alot of works....

13 Jan 2013 7:35 PM
KY VET

mary z.......2nd best picker on here..........

13 Jan 2013 7:36 PM
KY VET

darn.....hate it when ya try to beat the even money horse, but lose anyway.....

13 Jan 2013 7:42 PM
KY VET

gg race 9 #4 kern river

13 Jan 2013 7:49 PM
Mary Zinke

The 2 paid a big price, personally, to win, KY.  I was looking at 3,5 and 7 in that finale.  I'm definitely not the second best picker here. If I could just stick to betting on my winners only and not any losers. What's the trick to that?

13 Jan 2013 7:50 PM
Footlick

Congrats Mary Z!

13 Jan 2013 8:14 PM
Footlick

Even though it would have been better for me if Temple Door won.  I know you love Jeronimo and it was really nice to see him win again.

13 Jan 2013 8:17 PM
Pete Denk

Couple good looking works from my stable mail today.

Footbridge went 5f at Hollywood in :59-3 h, ranked 1/33.

And Bold Dance went 4f at Payson in :49-flat b, ranked 3/23.

13 Jan 2013 8:28 PM
Mary Zinke

Thanks, footy.  I do love Jeranimo.

13 Jan 2013 8:43 PM
Weekend

Pete, it's just getting started... Have fun

14 Jan 2013 9:00 AM
Coldfacts

Pete,

Divine Ambition ran an extremely good race considering his inexperience. I am predicting that the two that finished ahead of him will be viewing his rear when next they meet. Does he appear to be heavy and not fully in racing shape or is it just his body type? He is certainly a talent and I am hoping he will be packing less weight for his next start.

Carlos in Cali,

I was just alerted to a $1.4m A P Indy colt named Powerful trained by Neil Drysdale who will be making his debut shortly. He was produced from a Deputy Minister. One more colt impacted by LDS.

Mr.SOS

The Tampa Bay Derby was never considered a serious Derby Prep some year ago. Now it bears significance due to Derby winners Street Sense and Super Saver. Add Derby runner up Bluegrass Cat and Derby third place finisher Musket Man and you get four on the board horses that contested the TBD.

The Sunland Derby was never considered Derby prep until 4th place finisher Mine That Bird won the Derby. Any lowly regarded stake will be propelled to prominence if a Derby winner contested it en route to a Derby victory.

14 Jan 2013 11:16 AM
Rusty Weisner

The Sunland Derby was a negative key race last year.  

14 Jan 2013 11:26 AM
Footlick

Carlos in Cali, $3.20 to win.......... what odds did you think you would get if Purple Egg didn't scratch?  Have you ever thought a horse was not going to run well and made that statement and then watched as that horse did run well?  Just wondering.  

14 Jan 2013 12:16 PM
Carlos in Cali

Footlick,

I thought 5-2 would've been reasonable had Purple Egg not scratched,along with that other horse(Falling Sky?). That's why I didn't bet the race- odds way too low. The entry took all the money.

Regarding your question; can you please be more specific.. thanks.

"I think he scoots-away from them and wins,with Purple Egg chasing him home for 2nd. Chalky,but I can't see it any other way. I'll unload on the exacta then box em' just in case... if I even bet the race."

Carlos in Cali 10 Jan 2013 7:00 PM

14 Jan 2013 1:37 PM
Pete Denk

Coldfacts-

I concur with what u said about Divine Ambition. I also noticed the rider did not ride him very hard in the stretch. It was a pretty good first dirt run. I believe he still has some upside.

Rusty-

Totally agree on the Sunland Derby being a negative key race last year. I bet against Daddy Nose Best the rest of the year! Beyer gave him a false # for that race (100) and the bettors played him all year to run back to it, and then Derby week the workout guys were all falling in love with the horse because he delivered a couple effortless 4f moves...which any good Asmussen horse will do.

If exchange betting had been legal, I would have been making money laying that horse all year.

14 Jan 2013 1:57 PM
Footlick

Carlos in Cali, I thought it was a pretty straight-forward question.  I guess not.  Don't bother about it.

14 Jan 2013 3:30 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Q: What is a Racing Flow downgrade A:  It is a horse that we believe looks better on paper to the majority of horseplayers not using Racing flow figures, than it does to us.  

Q:  Do Racing Flow downgrades win?

A:  Yes, of course they win.  There is a brief column posted on the U/A page of our site devoted to just this question.

Q: Will horseplayers drain their bankrolls quicker betting our downgrades to win than they otherwise would ?

A:  Yes. One can tap out even quicker betting our downgraded runners going off at less than 3-1.

14 Jan 2013 4:24 PM
Plod Boy Phil

re: 2012 Sunland Derby

While we do not make figures for Sunland,  any reasonably knowledgeable handicapper with even a rudimentary understanding of pace could see that the winner did nothing more than pass runners that had stopped moving. At the risk over simplifying, first half miles in 46.2 and second half miles in 49.6 will tend to put deep closers in their happy place.

14 Jan 2013 4:30 PM
Pete Denk

Interesting maiden race on Friday at Santa Anita, 3yos going a mile on dirt.

Race 4

Curly Top

Footbridge

Starzilla

Dr. Spin

Syndicatd

Colburn

Forest Boy

Coastal Breeze

Apostle Paul

Python

AE Moreno

14 Jan 2013 4:56 PM
Pete Denk

Back to the Pasco...that was a nice run by Dynamic Sky.

He enters my Derby Top 20 with that run. I like his pedigree. He is 100-1 in Vegas right now.

14 Jan 2013 6:29 PM
Forbidden Apple

I just finished watching MSG races of the week. They said that Calistoga ran a 98 beyer, what a horse. I hope that she stays sound and stretches out well.

Soldat had every chance to win the Hal's Hope, he still seems to have a little extra weight on him. He loves the Gulfstream dirt, on to the Donn Handicap.

Again today I heard comments about My Miss Aurelia as a possible 3 y/o filly champion. She only won the Cotillion because of her large frame/head and the poor ride by Ortiz. Ortiz had Questing out for a crawl, at least 20 lengths slower than in the Alabama. After he let her go 1:14 3/5 for 6f, I would have started looking for a new jockey.

When is Rick Dutrow going to be banned from racing in NY? It's troubling that he's facing at least a 10 year ban, yet he won a grade I this past summer at Saratoga. Enough is enough, it's time to move to another state Mr. Dutrow.

14 Jan 2013 6:50 PM
Carlos in Cali

Pete,

What's your take on Demonic's winning debut yesterday at SA?..

14 Jan 2013 7:07 PM
Footlick

I'll wait nd see how Dynamic Sky steps up in class.  I do like his breeding also.  I liked Sky mesa, and I think his offspring are doing well.

14 Jan 2013 7:21 PM
Coldfacts

Rusty Weisner,

“The Sunland Derby was a negative key race last year.”

My point was not to suggest that the 2012 Sunland Derby was either negative or positive. However, this Derby gained graded status after Mine That Bird won the Kentucky Derby. Prior to his feat it was an ungraded and insignificant race. There were many Derby preps in 2012 that fit your assessment above.

Pete:

I am eagerly awaiting Footbridge’s next start as I think he is a monster. I know he has not cracked your top 20 but that will change after Friday.

The recent MSW winner Demonic is an attractive son of Bernardini. He has a very smooth action with good extension. I particularly like his dam line as it has a rich history of success. His dam sire Meadowlake was also dam sire of top class crack sprinter Henny Hughes. Meadowlake’s sire Hold Your Peace was the dam sire of 3rd place Derby finisher Peace Rule and LA Derby winner Mission Impazible.

If anyone wants to see how a racehorse’s head should sit on its neck view Demonic while on his way back to the winner’s enclosure.

14 Jan 2013 8:29 PM
KY VET

Footbridge.....3rd in mdn race......and youre talking top 20?  Isnt this race a mdn race?

14 Jan 2013 9:48 PM
Pete Denk

I LOVE Meadowlake mares. Demonic looked good.

Footbridge looked like he wanted more distance in the debut. Race 4 FRI at Santa Anita will be very interesting.

14 Jan 2013 9:55 PM
Pete Denk

Through a friend, I placed Derby futures on Dynamic Sky (100-1) and Avie's Quality (125-1) tonight at the Wynn in Vegas.

14 Jan 2013 11:11 PM
JayJay

Pete : Good luck with that.  Made me look up the odds of the futures at Wynn.  Top 3 - Violence (12-1), Uncaptured (14-1) and Shanghai Bobby at (18-1) through 01/09, looks like you dumped a load of cash on Dynamic Sky as his odds were 200-1 on 01/09 :)

I picked two colts to follow last year.  Know More and Palace Malice, KM ran multiple times and Palace Malice didn't race and have not raced yet.  Futures on Palace Malice is 35-1, Know More at 300-1 lol.  PM at 35-1 is really surprising to me.   Mylute currently at 100-1.

15 Jan 2013 12:36 AM
Mike Relva

Forbidden Apple

Totally agree with your comments regarding Dutrow. Like how much longer shall we wait for this to play out? He's a disgrace who doesn't deserve to train.

15 Jan 2013 1:19 AM
Coldfacts

Pete,

“Through a friend, I placed Derby futures on Dynamic Sky (100-1) and Avie's Quality (125-1) tonight at the Wynn in Vegas”

Are you referring to the same Avie’s Quality -

That listed as a possible starter in the either the Lecomte or the Holy Bull?

That will be making his dirt debut in either race?

That is from the dominant Mr. Prospector sire line?

That has one start at 1 70yds and three at 1 1/16m on two different surfaces?

Whose sire gave us Smarty Jones, Quality Road, Sepoy and Ravens Pass?

Whose dam won the 2000 (G1)  E P Taylor Stakes contested over 10F?

Whose dam sire Lord Avie was a son of Lord Gaylord who was a son of Sir Gaylord sire of Drone who was dam sire of Derby winners Grindstone and Charismatic?

If this is the same colt you have made an excellent wager. If possible cancel the wager on Dynamic Sky as he has no hopes of beating AQ if he makes the transition to dirt.

15 Jan 2013 8:21 AM
Coldfacts

Mr. SOS,

A Street Cry colt that is 10L off 21, 44, 1:08 fractions that had to be taken 5-6L wide for a final run and is only beaten 4L in a 61/2F race run in a brisk 1:14.97 deserves to be in every top 20. These are pertinent cold facts based on the colt's pedigree.

15 Jan 2013 8:29 AM
Pedigree Ann

Pedigree Ann,

Yes, Royal Delta dominated my Miss Aurelia. If she is so good, then she will step up and face colts in a Grade I race.

Oh, I agree completely. I was referring to that one performance. She has run out of competition among females, so must step up against the open division. Or suffer the opprobrium (rightly) heaped upon Zenyatta's connections.

15 Jan 2013 10:59 AM
Forbidden Apple

Pedigree Ann,

I'm not trying to beat up on Royal Delta at all. I only want to see her face Fort Larned, Wise Dan, and whoever else is man enough to run against her. Keep an eye out for her little sister in 2013, a 3 year old filly named Carnival Court. She was unraced at 2 for team McLaughlin/Darley.

Mike Relva,

Ten years does seem like extreme punishment for Mr. Dutrow. I think finding needles in his barn was the last straw for NY. Patrick "snake venom" Biancone only received a 1 year ban from racing. A guy who was booted out of France and Hong Kong came here to continue his abuse of horses. He should have received a longer ban than one year. I blame lasix for masking any illegal activity.

I also find it hard to believe that so many horses that move to the barns of David Jacobson and Rudy Rodriguez turn into win machines.

15 Jan 2013 12:06 PM
Carlos in Cali

Footlick

Back to the question you asked: Yes. Tapizar in last yr's BC Dirt Mile still stings a bit. I thought he was heading in the wrong direction going into it after backing him with my wallet ever since his facile maiden victory. Rail Trip took most of my money,but fortunately, I punched a last second ex/tri box keying those 2 on top after watching them warm up.

Sorry for the brain-fart,hope that answers your Question.

15 Jan 2013 12:25 PM
Mike Relva

Pedigree Ann

In Zenyatta's last race she only lost by a head by spotting the field twenty as well as being the oldest horse in the race. I support her connections one hundred per cent regarding their choices.

15 Jan 2013 12:31 PM
Rusty Weisner

ColdFacts,

I was supporting your point.  Mine That Bird inflated a minor race into a supposed Derby stepping stone.

I'm wondering which the weak circuits will be this year; maybe it's just that all of them were weak due to California's utter domination.

Last year Lousiana was particularly bad, though.  Curious what comes out of the Lecomte this weekend.

15 Jan 2013 1:21 PM
Weekend

Dude, get over it. She Lost. So sorry that you are still dwelling on this 2 years later. Let it go Mike, let it go.

15 Jan 2013 4:39 PM
Mike Relva

Billy's Empire

Was hoping you would take Jason's cue and go to Miami where you could continue being his yes man.

15 Jan 2013 7:25 PM
predict

If you like Avie's Quality? Why not My Name is Michael, also?

15 Jan 2013 8:42 PM
Pete Denk

Predict-

I liked Avie's Quality's run in the Display Stakes quite a bit better than My Name is Michael. I also prefer Avie's pedigree.

Additionally, and I know this is kinda silly, but could you see a horse named "My Name is Michael" winning the KY Derby? Doesn't seem right.

15 Jan 2013 11:38 PM
Pedigree Ann

"I'm wondering which the weak circuits will be this year; maybe it's just that all of them were weak due to California's utter domination.

"Last year Lousiana was particularly bad, though.  Curious what comes out of the Lecomte this weekend."

I discovered this fact with straight comparisons; when Rousing Sermon finished so close up in Louisiana, I knew what I needed to know. Also reflected poorly on Florida contingent.

Figuring out which circuits are strong this year and which are weak is one of the challenges of the Derby season. But one must be flexible - Snow Chief went east and slaughtered the Florida Derby field, indicating that the California contingent was stronger. The Derby winner had been third behind him in the Santa Anita Derby but was better bred for the distance.

16 Jan 2013 10:51 AM
Rusty Weisner

Pete Denk,

That's why I'll be rooting against "Violence" (if not necessarily betting against him).  

16 Jan 2013 12:27 PM
KY VET

tampa...race 1 longshot hunting....#4 to improve LANDING MY WAY......hit the board plz

16 Jan 2013 12:38 PM
KY VET

once again...right about favs running bad.....got 3rd at 7 to 1...........6 to one #1 wins...right but wrong.....this is the game.....

16 Jan 2013 12:47 PM
KY VET

sometimes you see why some trainers dont know what they are doing....shivmangal doodnaugth...race 3 aqu.....str.mdn....inspeightofitall promising horse prob. was worth 200k...runs 81,86,81,91....then after best race of his life...then runs 5 DAYS LATER!!!! thats stupid......races since 81,63,68.......what a shame!!! he actually figures to run better today........but trainer blew it....

16 Jan 2013 1:26 PM
KY VET

right about that horse speightofit all....good 2nd.....but inconsistant pattern will catch up to him...

16 Jan 2013 1:38 PM
KY VET

just saw backtrack #2 chapman didnt change leads.......im on #1 mainly aqu 5....comadente....both still keyed in horizontal...

16 Jan 2013 2:22 PM
KY VET

lol......#2 wins chapman...but #1 got bad trip,, was best.....5 to one nice for pk 3....but too bad switched main tks off the 2.....but 5 to 1 on #2 the best i could hope for....it pays more......fav had no excuse, cut in front of #1 had things own way, and lost.....

16 Jan 2013 2:27 PM
KY VET

aqu race 6 #9 comstock prize is one of the fav.....throw out,,,,that leaves. 2,3.5.7....almost all months off.....tough race! got all of those going in pk 3...but ill pk #2 ganador....wire to wire

16 Jan 2013 2:47 PM
KY VET

#5 wire to wire.....whoever got lead was gonna win......race 6 aqu...come on pk 3....

16 Jan 2013 2:53 PM
KY VET

come on key horse! #1 springcourt aqu race 7...10x 49.75 payoff...beat favs in 1st 2 legs...gotta get key horse first....2 horses to 4 horses to one...pretty good payoff if i hit....

16 Jan 2013 3:06 PM
-Keelerman

JayJay;

Palace Malice has been entered in a seven-furlong allowance optional claiming race on Saturday at Gulfstream Park.

16 Jan 2013 5:29 PM
Pete Denk

Yep, Palace Malice is in the opener at Gulfstream on Saturday.

7f dirt, 3yos, NW1X 8-horse field, including

Pepe

City of Weston

Palace Malice

Majestic Hussar

Jay Eye See

16 Jan 2013 7:14 PM
JayJay

Keelerman : Thanks for that! Yes, I've been watching for emails for his entry.  Really excited because I have another horse running in the same race that's in my watch list :  Jay Eye See, I like his breeding and the way he won his maiden.  I wasn't planning on going to the track this weekend but now it's not an option lol.  Been waiting for him for a long long time.

16 Jan 2013 9:18 PM
JayJay

One of my other watch list, Ground Transport is also running this weekend.  Looking forward to seeing them all run!  

Keelerman : Any updates to your derby dozen, spot any potentials lately ?

16 Jan 2013 9:21 PM
tcc

JayJay;

Fair Grounds notes: Mylute will wait for Risen Star.

16 Jan 2013 10:10 PM
-Keelerman

JayJay;

I'm very excited about a colt named Maleeh, a Kiaran McLaughlin-trained son of Indian Charlie that broke his maiden first time out on January 6th at Aqueduct. The race was six furlongs in distance; Maleeh did not race with Lasix.

After getting off to a beautiful start and briefly attempting to challenge for the early lead, Maleeh was allowed to settle back in fourth place as the field moved down the backstretch. He made a nice, smooth run around the turn to reach contention entering the homestretch, but appeared beaten when the free-running leader Bellamy Storm scorched the fifth furlong in :11.51 seconds to bring a two-length advantage to the eighth pole. Nevertheless, Maleeh closed in strongly under a hand ride in deep stretch, edging Bellamy Storm in the final strides while running his own final eighth in about :11.74 seconds.

Of course, as with just about any three-year-old this time of year, there are some negatives as well. Since he didn't race as a two-year-old, he does have the Apollo Curse hanging over his head. Furthermore, his pedigree isn't the strongest from a Derby perspective, being a son of Indian Charlie out of the millionaire sprinter Gold Mover, who never won a race longer than seven furlongs. Nevertheless, I was very impressed visually with Maleeh; he struck me as a true "push-button" type horse that responded very professionally to his rider's instructions, especially considering that it was his first start.

As for my Derby Dozen . . .

1. Dewey Square

2. Normandy Invasion

3. Capo Bastone

4. Shanghai Bobby

5. Titletown Five

6. War Academy

7. Violence

8. Mountain Eagle

9. Overanalyze

10. Power Broker

11. Proud Strike

12. Palace Malice

I am also intrigued by Honorable Dillon, who broke his maiden last summer at Saratoga before heading to the sidelines for many months. He recently returned to finish a fast-closing second in a 6-1/2 furlong allowance optional claiming race at Gulfstream Park. I look forward to seeing where he turns up next.

-Keelerman

16 Jan 2013 10:23 PM
tcc

Keelerman;

Found this about Titletown Five.

Titletown Five : D. Wayne Lukas trainee is out 60-90 days after suffering a knee chip.

16 Jan 2013 11:32 PM
Coldfacts

Pete,

Kindly do not display my last post as it contains inaccurate information.

Thanks

17 Jan 2013 2:19 AM
predict

Also on Saturday, R-3 at GP, there is a 3 year old MSW at 1 1/8 miles. Every horse in the race is well bred, like they were bred to win the Triple Crown, but they are all 2nd,3rd or 4th starters. Only mention this race as it is at a mile and an eighth and there is a horse named Trinni Heart, whose dam sire is Brocco, something you don't see often.

17 Jan 2013 3:10 AM
Pete Denk

Coldfacts-

Which post did u want me to delete?

I can't tell if one of the moderators already took care of it for u. Your most recent post that I can see is the one about Avie's Quality's pedigree. Was there a mistake there?

Lemme know!

Getting ready to head to BH to film THS. We are doing the Sunshine Millions and the Lecomte this week.

Also, Kerry Thomas, aka the herd whisperer, is in town. We'll be touring stud farms and working on a few projects.

17 Jan 2013 8:07 AM
Forbidden Apple

Is it true that Violence has a tendon injury? I just received an email stating that Violence is damaged goods since his last start.

17 Jan 2013 8:19 AM
Weekend

Looking forward to this season. No one is really talking about Uncaptured. He has a nice pedigree, his daddy Lion Heart was a nice colt, and he is out of a mare by Arch. Casse is a great trainer, and he had proven himself 2x on dirt at Churchill. Am I missing something here?

17 Jan 2013 9:34 AM
Pete Denk

Billy-

I personally don't think Uncaptured is a 10f horse.

17 Jan 2013 10:05 AM
-Keelerman

Thanks, Tcc! I've been wondering what's up with Titletown Five. I guess this explains it!

Fortunately, Lukas has said that Titletown Five will be ready to run in March, so I guess the 60-90 days are just about up.

Forbidden Apple;

I haven't heard anything about Violence being injured. As of a few days ago, Pletcher stated the colt was still on track for a start in the Fountain of Youth.

-Keelerman

17 Jan 2013 11:38 AM
Weekend

Keelerman, I understand Titletown Five is a nice colt, but I would not bet a Lukas horse with your money. His record in stakes over the last 2 years is like 1-60... His time is up

17 Jan 2013 12:12 PM
Rusty Weisner

predict,

"Like they were bred to win the Triple Crown"...

By the way, when are the actual nominations?

17 Jan 2013 12:27 PM
predict

It is a self nomination by achievement, ending in June. The reason for stating what I did, all of the sires of the race participants, are sires that I would consider were chosen to breed for a route of ground as found in the Triple Crown races.

17 Jan 2013 1:17 PM
Rusty Weisner

Jan. 26.

17 Jan 2013 2:10 PM
KY VET

aqu race 8....#9 james jingle wp

17 Jan 2013 3:49 PM
derbygal

Santa Anita

R1 5,2

R2 4,3

R3 3,1,6

R4 2,6,4,8

17 Jan 2013 3:56 PM
KY VET

sa race 1  my first prime bet of day....horse w problems dropping....#2 donato.....today runs good, then jump off him....wp

17 Jan 2013 3:59 PM
KY VET

comp froze...donato's saddle slipped, goes out by 6.....still holds on.....that was dicey!

17 Jan 2013 4:13 PM
El Kabong

Billy E,

I am with you on Uncaptured and for exactly the reasons you stated, especially the dam sire line which if it shows up just a little, should carry this guy to 10f's. I mentioned him a while back on my 20 horse watch list but he hasn't popped up yet in action. I like the crowd he has been running against too. Frac Daddy, Dewey Square and Tesseron are good horses.  I would give anything to hear what Mena said to Cohen right after the wire in the KJC. Keep the faith on Uncaptured. Like Steve noted, he's a throwback to a tougher day. He has one of the best foundations and a real winning desire. He's my favorite so far, but this is too early to surround anyone with wagons.

17 Jan 2013 4:30 PM
Forbidden Apple

Avie's Quality is still an unkown on dirt and the 5/2 morning line is low for me. I looked back at the charts for every horse and I think Golden Soul looks interesting at 5-1.

17 Jan 2013 4:31 PM
KY VET

wow,,,just had winner at sa race 3...tri cold......but there was inquiry...did anyone see that? they left my horse up...i think they should have took #2 down! #3 had lead, but pricked ears up and pulled himself up, fought back...bumped twice.....unreal!

17 Jan 2013 5:17 PM
KY VET

gg race 4...russell b even! wow....thats overbet...ill bet #2 wp alias micheal

17 Jan 2013 5:19 PM
KY VET

gg race 4...russell b even! wow....thats overbet...ill bet #2 wp alias micheal

17 Jan 2013 5:19 PM
KY VET

2nd at gg....too far back...russell b 4th...another chalk killed....but didnt get the win.....good place payoff...

17 Jan 2013 5:22 PM
KY VET

gg race 6....look for arathorn to improve.....wp#7

17 Jan 2013 6:16 PM
JayJay

Keelerman : Watched Maleeh's race, and yeah, that was an impressive race (exactly how you described it.)  I'm not a fan of indian charlie's but you never know.  Also, there's a lot of prep races to win but like you said, his breeding doesn't scream 10Fs.  One thing I noticed, he looked a lot smaller than Bellamy Storm, you see it more as they crossed the wire but maybe it's the camera's angle or maybe it's my eyes lol.

tcc : Thanks for the info on Mylute, where did you get that info ?  I tried searching the fairgrounds website but couldn't anything about mylute and risen star.

El Kabong : Is Tesseron on your (early) derby list ?   He's on mine, just curious if you like him too and what do you like about him.

18 Jan 2013 12:04 AM
JayJay

Predict :  Thanks for the heads up on that 9F race at GP for 3 yr olds.  I'll probably play Gentleman's Honor again here but I'm also intrigued by Quiros.  I like betting Mott's horses but I see that he switched riders (Jr Alvarado), Cornelio rode him the last time, not sure if it's a good move or not.   You're right, if betting based on breeding, I'll probably pass this race as I won't be able to pick one lol.   Just a gut feeling, Mott's going to have a big day on saturday.

18 Jan 2013 12:27 AM
Weekend

El Kabong, well there are two of us then. I think he has the pedigree to get there. He has a strong female family, and Lion Heart was the leading third year sire. He showed a lot of grit and heart in his races, and I think he has passed that down to this colt. His only loss he was stopped in the lane and got 5th, other than that we just wins. I am going to keep a close eye on Uncaptured.

18 Jan 2013 9:17 AM
predict

JayJay,

Thanks for heads up on Mott, I agree he should have a good day. In race 3 I'm watching Elmutahid because he is first time off the turf and he is bred so similar to Street Sense, being sired by Street Cry and out of a Dixieland Band mare. I like the connections and I wonder if they haven't just been careful with this guy, having kept him on the turf. Should be an interesting race.

18 Jan 2013 10:53 AM
El Kabong

JayJay,

Jay Jay,

Tesseron's by Tapit, who has been terrific so far producing graded stakes winners. He's had two G runs at two turns against very good company and performed well, in fact he looked very relaxed striding easy, not fatigued in both. In the KJC he had a bad start which didn't help but he finished up well along side Dewey Square. The top 4 horses in this race are all very good horses, and all are worth a close eye to see how they improve in their 3 year old frames.  Tesserons pedigree does not scream 10f's but he'll be a factor up to 9 for sure. Let's see how he handles that. Dosage isn't bad but it is border line, same as Bodemeister's. If he gets a little bigger, stronger, and hopefully faster, he can compete with anyone. Who you ran against means more to me than times. Watch those four as they compete and hopefully it won't be against one another.

18 Jan 2013 3:42 PM
El Kabong

Billy,

I was watching that race live where you mentioned he stopped in the lane and I think he was pulled up by mena because the lane he wanted between tesseron and river seven closed like a barn door. In my opinion, River Seven drifted out center right after his jock smacked him twice on the left inside. Mena claimed a foul but it was disallowed. No matter, it will make him smarter and tougher going forward. Did I mention his dosage is 2.0?

18 Jan 2013 5:39 PM
derbygal

Santa Anita:

R7 2,6,7,5

18 Jan 2013 6:35 PM

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