Holy Bull Stakes

We analyzed the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) on That Handicapping Show this week, and despite the presence of several big name three-year-olds, including 2yo champ Shanghai Bobby, I picked Calder-based Itsmyluckyday.

If you didn't see his performance in the Gulfstream Park Derby on New Year's Day, it is worth reviewing. This Lawyer Ron colt runs with a low head carriage and the relaxed rhythm of a two-turn horse, yet he was tracking some very fast fractions in that one-turn mile race. He pulled away under a hand ride, stopping the timer in 1:34.39.

Despite the fact he is in form and boasts the field's best speed figure (on Beyer and BRIS), Itsmyluckyday should be a good price. He is listed at 6-1 on the morning line and could go even higher. I think Shanghai Bobby, Frac Daddy, Bern Identity, and Dewey Square all take more money than him. The morning lines at Gulfstream have been off lately, and to me it looks like they blew the lines on Frac Daddy (8-1) and Dewey Square (12-1). Both of those look too long.

For multi-race purposes, I could see myself singling Itsmyluckyday on one ticket and going 4-deep on another, where I'll look to press other opinions in the sequence.

Both for entertainment purposes and betting, Gulfstream has put together a great Saturday card, full of intriguing three-year-old races. In addition to the Holy Bull, Gulfstream has the Forward Gal Stakes (G2), which features a matchup of My Happy Face, Spring Venture, Kuai Katie, and for added entertainment throw in the undefeated Puerto Rican filly Fusaichiswonderful.

The card also includes a pair of NW1X allowance races for three-year-olds going 1 1/8 miles on the dirt, a strong NW2X/Optional claimer for older horses, and another allowance race for three-year-olds going 1 1/8 miles on turf.

Time to get to work!

 ---

Just saw that a bunch of people on Twitter are giving trainer Graham Motion grief for putting Joel Rosario on Animal Kingdom on Feb. 9 in the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap (replacing the injured Ramon Dominguez). I think Rosario will be great on Animal Kingdom. The matchup vs. Point of Entry is going to be a good one.

248 Comments

Leave a Comment:

Mary Zinke

Re-sent comment:

sceptre, Thanks for the grouping generalization, whoever the heck you are. We're strangers to each other, so I don't know what group you're in.

Anyway, I had sent a longer comment this a.m. about the Salix subject and the nsaids. I'll check out that article you mentioned at the now defunct Thoroughbred Times. You do consider if someone, real scientists included, have a vested interest in keeping the diuretic, Salix, in use?  Of course you understand that the drug is not a cure nor a prevention for EIPH. You are satisfied with not considering any long term effects these drugs may have? Happy with the increased recovery time between races due to the fluid loss, since the diuretic does its work in that area, and you are okay with the calcium loss from bones to replenish the blood calcium levels? My earlier comment ,which was not posted, to KY concerned the use of Salix which acts upon the kidneys alongside of administering phenylbutazone which can have side effects of causing ulcers and kidney damage. Also, with most of a card being made up of claiming and allowance races, why not start with disallowing Salix for stakes races? This would affect a small percentage of overall racing, but it would affect the races that get the most new fan/tv attention. Understanding that the perception by those against Salix use  and those who don't feel as though it is a problem(and then there are those that are pro-Salix, stating that it is actually cruel to  run a horse without the diuretic) is that Salix gives an edge because of the weight loss through fluid loss, pre-race. The comments that since it is a first-time Salix user horse will improve, usually with no other reason given for that improvement. So, a perception that U.S. horses must be medicated to win, and not for health reasons.  sceptre, it would take some persuasion, and yes, scientific evidence, and long-term effects studies to change my mind about the administering of a strong diuretic to approximately 90% of U.S. racing Thoroughbreds. Tell me why I should think that's okay.

Uniform rules, nationwide, for drug usage and consequences for infractions are of course long overdue. Possibly that was the part of the comment that did not pass the moderator earlier.

To Mike, I saw your comment about visiting the Tucson rescue. How is Here Comes Frazier(if he's still there)?  Very, very good cause; will send another donation. Maybe you would weigh in on the Salix/nsaids issues as these concern the horses' well-being.

24 Jan 2013 3:55 PM
Rusty Weisner

I am on board with Myluckyday to at least show. The second quarter of that race was really fast.  Forbidden Apple also made the point that this looks like a race he's aiming at to punctuate his winter campaign.

I was tempted to exclude the horses from the Kentucky JCS in favor of Bern Identity but am not happy about his odds, and I think he might fall too far off the pace. Anyone have any thoughts on the KJCS?

Pletcher won this race last year and I think he will again.

It's the only race I'm playing all day.  I'll take the best horse and the speediest (and local) one, boxed: Shanghai Bobby, itsmyluckyday.

24 Jan 2013 4:05 PM
Rusty Weisner

Pete Denk,

How's Gulfstream playing?  

24 Jan 2013 4:07 PM
Rusty Weisner

Don't like the post for Shanghai Bobby.

24 Jan 2013 4:33 PM
Rusty Weisner

I'll change that.  I think the fast horse will toast anyone who challenges for the lead while holding on, and I prefer Bern Identity or Dewey Square over Frac Daddy and Shanghai Bobby to pick up the pieces.

Exactas:  Itsmyluckyday, Dewey Square; Itsmyluckyday, Bern Identity.

24 Jan 2013 4:42 PM
Little Bill

Came up with the same horse and was satisfied when I saw 6-1,but not much less. I'll also be using the #9 in exotics. I'm not a jockey-capper but JV never hurts, except for price. If the #9 runs OK I think he'll have a better shot with more ground in the FoY or Fla. Derby.

24 Jan 2013 4:58 PM
-Keelerman

Pete;

I can certainly see why you like the chances of Itsmyluckyday. But I would like to make note of one unusual factor -- which you may have already noticed -- about the internal fractions of one-mile races at Gulfstream Park.

The following excerpt was written by Steve Haskin in March 2009, following Quality Road's victory in the Fountain of Youth:

"There is one other note regarding Gulfstream. It is time to simply ignore the fractions in one-mile races run out of the chute. In order to give horses as much room as possible behind the gate for safety reasons, the gate is moved up, so instead of having a run-up before the teletimer is triggered, the timing starts as soon as the horses break. As a result, the opening quarter in the Fountain of Youth was a sluggish :23 4/5, while the  half was run in :45 2/5. That means the second quarter was run in :21 3/5 after a :23 4/5 first quarter. Sorry, but horses simply do not do that, so pay no attention to the fractions of this race."

The only reason I'm pointing this out is that the Gulfstream Park Derby was a one-mile race out of the chute, and it also had a highly unusual second quarter-mile fraction -- which may have been more the result of the unusual run-up situation, rather than an actual second quarter acceleration from Itsmyluckyday, Sr. Quisqueyano, and Undrafted.

On the other hand, perhaps it doesn't matter. Through the third quarter mile of the Gulfstream Park Derby, those three extended their advantage over the rest of the field by 6 1/2 lengths, and that's pretty impressive! Itsmyluckyday may very well be the best horse in the race, and I'm considering picking him myself. But I thought the quote about the run-up and internal fractions was interesting, and I thought everyone might enjoy reading it.

-Keelerman

24 Jan 2013 5:01 PM
KY VET

Excellent post by keelerman......

24 Jan 2013 5:24 PM
Pete Denk

Rusty-

Speed holds an edge at GP. Closers get no help from that track.

24 Jan 2013 5:33 PM
Plod Boy Phil

re: GP One-Turn Miles

It was evident from the onset that this new distance at the reconfigured Gulfstream Park had zero run-up.  This led to the 2nd quarter of the races being run faster than the 1st quarter of the races. Since 2009 (over 1340 races at the distance), the 2nd quarters are on average 1.10 seconds faster than the 1st quarter. Interestingly,  that is exactly the difference between the 1st and 2nd quarters of the GP Derby.

The important thing to understand is how the fractions and the final time worked together. Did the winner benefit from the pace and bias dynamics,  or did he do something above the norm?

We definitely have an opinion,  but since it is NHC weekend and a number of our subscribers are involved, mums the word,  for now.

The RF opinion of Shanghai Bobby is no mystery to anyone that has followed Pete's Blog over the past three months.

24 Jan 2013 5:44 PM
ned williams

Keelerman,

Thanks for reminding me of this quirky situation at Gulfstream. I was somewhat leery of the fractions in the Gulfstream Park Derby, but I could not put my finger on what may have happened.  I have to say that the speed figure jump made Itsmyluckyday in this race now seems more reasonable. However I will put my money elsewhere until Itsmyluckyday proves that the Gulfstream Park Derby was not simply his lucky day, caused by an unusual timing situation. As Pete so correctly states, it really did not appear that the horses were going as fast as they were.... maybe they wern't?

24 Jan 2013 5:46 PM
Pete Denk

No doubt the fractions on the one-turn miles at GP are flawed. But I still can't find any way not to like what Itsmyluckyday did that day.

I've been on board this horse since the Foolish Pleasure and I love him going back to two turns. My thinking also is that several of the name 3yos in this race should not be fully cranked for this.

I think he is a worth a shot at 6-1 or more.

24 Jan 2013 5:51 PM
Mary Zinke

Going with Shanghai Bobby in the Holy Bull. Why? Power, jockey won't let him lose focus(figure of speech; that's how I'm putting it.)Itsmyluckyday, even with the skewed speed figure(my wordage) still fast, Dewey Square, Frac Daddy, next fastest, shouldn't be too far back.

24 Jan 2013 5:55 PM
Mike from Michigan

I'm going with Shanghai Bobby to win, according to my calculations, he has the best BHF (biggest heart figure) of the bunch :)

24 Jan 2013 6:23 PM
Rusty Weisner

Keelerman,

That's a great comment.  I had noticed Imaluckyday's 21-something first split and wondered about it.

24 Jan 2013 6:30 PM
sceptre

Mary Zinke:

Perhaps, take another look at my last post on Pete's previous blog (the one to which you responded). I said Thoroughbred Daily News (TDN), not The Thoroughbred Times. I guess you're unaware of TDN, and this speaks volumes about your background in thoroughbred racing. You are obviously free to write paragraph after paragraph on the subject of EIPH and Salix, but I'd strongly suggest that you educate yourself a bit more before subjecting us to your nonsense.  

24 Jan 2013 7:24 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty-

While you've either missed the relative post, or chosen to ignore it, the 'mystery' surrounding the GP Derby splits has been put in context.  Also, Itsmy splits were ~23.15, 22.05.

While this game has many subjective variables handicappers choose to pursue,  there are some things that can be measured.  Some say it's not the end all, but it beats the heck out of guessing at everything.

24 Jan 2013 7:24 PM
Ranagulzion

From the #1 hole and going the mile and sixteenth at Gulfstream, Shanghai Bobby should take home the bacon here.  Itsmyluckyday and a few others (Bern Identity, Dewey Square and Frac Daddy) in the race should test his mettle. If "Bobby" fails to win here it could be the end of the Triple Crown road for him IMO ...but I think that he's equal to this task.

Keelerman,

Good work quoting the "Derby Dozen" icon, Haskin.

24 Jan 2013 7:45 PM
Mary Zinke

Yah, read it, sceptre, this anyway, at Thoroughbred Daily News since you failed to post a link.

www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/.../tdn130124_1.pdf

You don't address the percentage of U.S. horses on this diuretic, nor the fact that when horses are seen to bleed from the nostrils, not just the minute amount detected in a scope that they likely bled THROUGH Salix use. You don't discuss the leaching of calcium from the bones to return the blood calcium levels to normal.  If you want to cite a source, post the link. Thanks.

You are a bit heavy with the personal comments, but that's expected when one attempts to take a pacifier from someone else's baby's mouth. And I wasn't the one who said that this drug masks others.  It's a strong diuretic. That is its intended purpose.

24 Jan 2013 7:51 PM
sceptre

For those interested:

Google: Steve Sherack EIPH. There you'll find a link to the PDF- E.I.P.H. discussion takes centerstage. Click onto it, and read. --as many may not have access to TDN.

24 Jan 2013 7:55 PM
Ranagulzion

Keelerman,

Steve Haskin's observation about the Gulfstream one-turn mile was quite astute but the speed and class of the horse in question at the time, Quality Road made his warning of no effect ...as we now know by hindsight Quality Road was a "freight train".  Perhaps with some foresight Itsmyluckyay is anothr QR in the making but most prefer to wait and see unless you're as brave or enamoured by the horse as Pete is, to wager on it.  Good luck Pal.

24 Jan 2013 7:59 PM
KY VET

The brisnet rating for itsmyluckyday is 111.......obviously wrong.....everyone in that race improved 15 or 20 points? doubt it!  i dont have the beyer fig....does anyone know the winning beyer?

24 Jan 2013 8:04 PM
Pete Denk

ItsmyLuckyday's Beyer is 95, tops in the field by one point over Shanghai Bobby's Champagne (94).

24 Jan 2013 8:07 PM
Mary Zinke

And sceptre the sensationalism quoted in that article: removing all of their horses from training and selling off all stock if the performance enhancing diuretic is banned. "Like waterboarding in their own blood."  But to you, that's not nonsense. Actually, the doctor mentioned first in this article has a great idea for much more research to be done on the subject of the cause/cure of EIPH, and having that research funded. sceptre, he does want Salix use continued while the research goes on. When Salix use as a race day med is finally gone, are you going to blame me? If racing were gone, who should I blame?

24 Jan 2013 8:28 PM
Pete Denk

Chad Brown is going to put Noble Tune on a turf-synth-? path. Would consider Ky Derby if he runs well in the Blue Grass S.

See my twitter feed (right column on this page) for link to DRF story.

24 Jan 2013 8:31 PM
KY VET

pete...thats about right.....111 brisnet out of whack.....

24 Jan 2013 8:35 PM
KY VET

Sceptre........there are alot of morons on here you should pick on.....mary z has common sense....she knows the game......

24 Jan 2013 8:40 PM
KY VET

What does everyone think about the forward gal stks.....i think my pick will win by 6.....

24 Jan 2013 8:41 PM
KY VET

Dont really like the holy bull......only know, that i wouldnt bet ITSMYLUCKYDAY.....sorry....please bet light guys....just trying to help..............btw.....horses i post will run bad almost always do.........if youre paying attention.......

24 Jan 2013 8:46 PM
Footlick

Horses seem to be performing just fine without meds in most other parts of the world.  Why is it so important to our thoroughbred in particular?  Maybe scepter could answer that.  It seems US bred and US bloodlines run all over the world, but only here do they need Salix.  Why is that?

24 Jan 2013 9:03 PM
KY VET

Sceptre....how come people dont understand,that is 90 percent use it.....it might be a good thing? Why cant these people let the people that "know" horses, make their living caring for horses, do what they know is good for the horse? Its funny...if it was bad...why would we risk the horse's health? Trust me...if it was hurting horses, we wouldnt do it..............why is that so hard to figure out? sceptre....do these people need the long list of problems that can happen to a horse that bleeds?  Its a little more serious than electrolytes.....or calcium.............ill say it again......they run once a month people! they are not on lasix everyday! get it?

24 Jan 2013 9:05 PM
Pete Denk

ItsMyLuckyday no more than a price play here. I think any of five can win, and Lucky is stepping up in class for sure in a lot of ways (including facing higher herd dynamic horses).

If the public shuns him, I can play him.  I have liked him a while. Believe he is a two turn horse.

Shanghai should hit the exacta if Rosie breaks him cleanly. But any of the others (Frac, Bern, Dewey) could run him down if they move forward first race at age 3, totally possible, or if Lucky is for real.

Lot of entertaining 3yo races on this GP card. I'll be looking to take value when I see it, but also just enjoy these races and watch for future plays.

24 Jan 2013 9:08 PM
Coldfacts

The 2013 Holy Bull is a very competitive field in spite of the presence of the unbeaten 2YO champion.  It’s interesting to note that in the last 23 years only one trainer had back to back winners.  Nick Zito’s Go For Gin and Suave Prospect were the 1994 and 1995 winners.  It is hard to believe that Mr. Todd Pletcher has trained only one winner of this race i.e., Algorithms

Seven of the likely starters will be making their 3YO debuts and will have to beat Itmyluckyday who has set the bar for a mile at GP at 1:34.39. This time was achieved while he was being eared down. There must have been a following wind as this colt was dusted in the Delta Jackpot.  If Itsmayluckyday is the horse to beat then Bern Identity has to be the one with the best shot. Both colts contested the $1M Delta Jackpot and Bern Identity finished a fast closing second to recent Sham Sakes winner Goldencents. He had a very trouble trip while Itsmyluckyday finished a badly beaten 6th.

The champion 2YO Shanghai Bobby easily handled Bern Identity in the Hopeful and therefore with expect improvements should finish ahead of both. Can any of the remaining colts be victorious? There is one colt that owes me money and this appears to be an ideal time to try to recoup. I lost a ton on Dewey Square in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. This colt reminds me lot of his sire and his breeders choose not to part with him for $575K. They must think he is special and based on his trainer’s disclosure that he has turned an important corner I will be all in.

24 Jan 2013 9:12 PM
Mary Zinke

Forward Gal, Going with Happy Face over Kauai Katie.

24 Jan 2013 9:29 PM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

Can you name the 2YO Champion that has won the Holy Bull? If the over hype Uncle Mo from the chosen one's barn was kept out of the race, shouldn’t Shanghai Bobby follow his illustrious former stable member? I was hoping to see Palace Malice another colt from your short list. The Todd Squad better stay in hiding as the late developers will not be taking prisoners.

24 Jan 2013 9:33 PM
JayJay

Keelerman : Thanks for posting that info about the splits at GP.  If there's ever going to be any info of value about splits, that is one of the more important ones.  That's what I call useful info, not useless lol.  Love the fact you post less but provide more important info everytime when you do.  Thanks!

Holy Bull : I'm sticking with my two derby dozen horses, Bern Identity to grind out a win against Shanghai Bobby with Dewey Square and Frac Daddy  for the tri and super.  I'll see how Itsmyluckyday's odds play on race time.

Pete : Thanks for Itsmyluckyday, didn't even notice him until I read this article.

24 Jan 2013 9:33 PM
Coldfacts

Footlick,

I await the answer to the question that ended your post. The experts of Salix now have an opportunity to put this issue to rest.

The US is the drug capitol of the world. Drug manufacturers have significant influence. Can you imagine the revenue loss if this product is prohibited as a race day medication. Revenue are down from steroids as special circumstance now govern usage.  

In many instances money trumps human interest. Does any one think equines are more important than humans?

24 Jan 2013 9:48 PM
Footlick

Then I guess most of the WORLD doesn't get it, KY VET.  If it was so beneficial for the horse, then why is it just the thoroughbreds running in the US who consistently need it to compete?  Anyone care to do something other than question people's reading skills and intelligence and actually answer the question?  US bloodlines are all over the world.  They run on Lasix here in NA.  They do not run on Lasix in Europe, Japan, Australia, etc.  Do their horses not bleed?  Are they less healthy than their Lasix dependent American counterparts?  I'm just a feeble-minded person who has watched horses run all over the world and somehow the rest of the world's horses stand up to racing just fine without it.  So, please enlighten me without insults to intelligence, reading comprehension or knowledge of horse racing.  Thanks in advance.

24 Jan 2013 9:52 PM
Age of Reason

To throw my proverbial 2 cents in, I couldn't be more delighted that one of my personal Derby favorites, Mountain Eagle, is pretty much flying totally under the radar on Gulfstream's card; he's entered in the 9-furlong NW1X allowance Pete mentioned. I'll be very intrigued to see how the speed figures from that race come back compared to the Holy Bull.

24 Jan 2013 9:58 PM
josh

Shanghai Bobby should win this race based on back class. However, I probably won't pick him again to win a race if he continues down the derby trail, his shaky pedigree makes him susceptible to defeat; 8 1/2 furlongs seems to be his max.  

From a betting perspective, I'm going with Dewey Square to improve off his last. Dale Romans just doesn't throw horses in spots for the sake of experience. Most of all, his workouts have drastically improved, and his last workout stands out.

Itsmyluckyday is a good play, I like horses that train on Calders' deep track. His last GP win was impressive and so was the final time.

If I am playing Dewey Square than I must play Frac Daddy too, but I am reluctantly doing so.

Good Luck!

24 Jan 2013 10:26 PM
sceptre

Mary Zinke:

Since you like to pluck out sentence fragments from context, it's revealing that you didn't select this one-(Below the heading): ...their consensus statement "...Horses administered furosemide on a routine basis have not been recognized to experience detrimental effects." Well, so much for your "leaching of calcium...", etc. Your "waterboarding" excerpt was not offered by any of the scientists or vets on the panel.

And, yes, EIPH, and its prevention and treatment certainly deserves more study. At present, however, furosemide has been proven to be an efficacious remedy, so until something better comes along (therapeutic, environmental, etc.) it would be immoral to withhold it from the racehorse. The fact that it isn't 100% effective in all cases is a meaningless argument, as long as there are no known treatments more effective. No Mary, it won't be the Mary Zinkes of this world that cause its ban, but rather those higher-ups in the industry who are similarly ill-informed. And, notice that none of them are people of science. Lastly, KY VET, while you seem to be an analytical type of guy, you're all wet in simply allowing the trainers to do their thing-believing that they'll do what's best for the horse. Trainers often have many agendas, and occasionally some of these agendas conflict with the horses' best interests (and let's face it, racing itself isn't in the best interest of the horse). But more importantly, perhaps, most trainers are not expert on the physiology, etc. of the horse, yet they are the ones who make the call when, and how often, a vet is to be consulted. This is among the reasons why I constantly preach that more oversight is needed. And, Pete, I notice that you've removed yourself from this discussion. Ok, it wasn't your "topic", but this is your blog. Could it be that The BloodHorse is owned by the TOBA (which are anti-lasix) or, perhaps, you haven't yet formed an opinion?        

24 Jan 2013 10:50 PM
sceptre

Footlick:

Google: Romans: in defence of lasix, Paulick Report. (I don't know how to post a link-poor computer skills). This might answer some of your points. The Rest Of The World argument has been debunked in many articles. Romans cites some of the evidence, but there's a lot more. But know this- the most thorough and scientifically pristine study ever done on EIPH/furosemide- Hinchcliff's (et al) S. African study, was performed on South African racehorses who had previously raced without lasix. Check out the study. Those horses "bled" similarly to our own, and lasix proved effiacious for them as well...So, let's get well read on the subject before forming opinions in concrete.  

24 Jan 2013 11:11 PM
Mary Zinke

More grouping, ad hominem, sceptre, because you need to do that. You have no problem with the administering of a strong diuretic to athletes, and you have not mentioned anything about long-term effects. Do you even question Salix being given to two year olds that have not even raced once? I hope you weren't using remedy as a synonym for cure, because you are so ill-informed as to think that Salix cures EIPH, and if YOU read and comprehended that article you would have seen that it is the heart itself that must also be studied. If you reference some article, next time do cite only the passages that pertain to your view, you know, just the humane ones.

I said what about just banning it from stakes races? Just a suggestion. Would want ya to think I was overstepping my bounds, ad hominem- using sceptre. What percentage of any card/week's worth of cards at any track are those?

One more thing. Salix/Lasix wasn't always in use and stakes horses ran more often throughout the year. So what did they do back then if a horse "bled"?

Awaiting my next grouping.

24 Jan 2013 11:20 PM
Mary Zinke

Where's the long-term study on the effects of Salix, sceptre. Do you have a link? What was the sample size of the horses from your plucked sentence above? Which systems of their bodies were studied? Musculoskeletal, circulatory, digestive,etc. Male, female, which ages, how often raced, grade of races, years raced, other factors. Tell me about this long term effects study of "Horses administered furosemide on a routine basis have not been recognized to experience detrimental effects."  Thank you. I'll await your link. I appreciate your time.

24 Jan 2013 11:29 PM
Footlick

sceptre- I have read many studies about Lasix and have never doubted that it can lessen bleeding.  But, I prefer to side with Criquette Head and others on the subject of how to control bleeding and that racing should be natural selection.  I actually like the statement that there are many stallions in the US that should not be stallions.  Also that if a horse's bleeding cannot be controlled naturally the horse is either retired or sent to the US.  You may like the fact that these horses are being allowed to breed on.  I feel that if they cannot race without meds, they should have a different career.  But, I'm not well-read enough for you.  Oh, also, look up what she says about allegations that Euros train on Lasix all the time.  Happy reading.

25 Jan 2013 12:48 AM
The Pope

To me 12-1 on Clearly Now looks like a longshot worth looking at. Inside post with speed and Saez, I think this ones gonna try to steal it on the lead. And there does not look like to be a lot of speed in the race. I'm playing Clearly Now to win with exacta boxes over Shanghai Bobby and Bern Identity.

25 Jan 2013 2:17 AM
ROBBIEJOE25

IDEA: Have two blogs, 1 for people to argue stupid topics, and one for the holy bull stakes...I love reading the racing info and everyones opinion but for some reason this blog always gets off track. have great and safe weekend.....

25 Jan 2013 6:37 AM
Footlick

Sorry about commenting on something that was already being commented about.  I'll stop.

25 Jan 2013 8:53 AM
Coldfacts

BlameItOn Zenyatta,

Are you sure the above ID is correctly composed? Wouldn’t ‘BlameItOn Blame’ be more appropriate?

I carefully reviewed Clearly Now as I was impressed with the two wins that started his career. In addition his dam was sired by Arch. I took a liking to I’ll Have another after I discovered his dam was sired by Arch. As you are aware Arch was the sire of Blame who handed Zenyatta her only defeat thus ‘BlameItOn Blame’. Zenyatta’s dam was sired by Kris S who also sired Arch. Kris S goes back to Hail To reason and the HTR dam line ranks second only to the Northern Dancer dam line.

His 3rd place finish in the Discovery suggested he might not be effective at 1 1/6M as he was one pace after leading comfortably. My conclusion might just be premature as the colt jumped from 6F to 1 1/6F. The Discovery winner Avie’s Quality had contested three previous races at 8F and longer and consequently had more foundation.

The true ability of this colt is unknown.  However, he has the most important asset a thoroughbred can possess and that’s speed. His speed and the Gulfstream Park speedway may very well be compatible. He will be included in my wagers as any colt that completed 6F in 1:09.68 and whose dam sire is Arch should not be ignored.

25 Jan 2013 9:25 AM
Pedigree Ann

I liked the way Frac Daddy kept trying in the KJCS. His connections have said they see more Skip Away than Scat Daddy in him, and not just because of the grey coat color, so expect improvement at 3. Dewey Square's running line in the KJCS looks like a horse who hadn't figured it all out yet; more to come from him, as well, IMHO.

This is just the beginning of the journey and any horse who doesn't win but runs decently shouldn't be tossed on the trash heap.

25 Jan 2013 9:37 AM
Deltalady

Pete:  apologies for being off-topic here.

Sceptre, I suggest you stop sniping and do some educating yourself.  Mary knows a great deal more than you obviously do. She cleary was referring to the article in the TDN. This is off-topic here, but I have to say I totally agree with Mary.

Bottom-line: lasix proponents never do address why the rest of the world gets along without lasix on raceday. The emperor has no clothes!

This conference was clearly geared to take aim at the Breeders Cup "no lasix" stand for the fall races. The effort will fail, and all the breast-beating about "systematically selling off all their Thoroughbred stock" just makes them look silly, like a bunch of school kids threatening to pick up their ball and going home because the other kids are threatening to change the rules of the game.  It is high time the rules were changed.  Have to love the timing of this conference: a week earlier and they could have made the front pages along with Lance Armstrong! LOL

25 Jan 2013 10:46 AM
JayJay

josh : Why "reluctantly" playing Frac Daddy?  Just curious as I like this horse to get a piece in the Holy Bull, like his chances better than Dewey Square.  To me, it's all coming down to the horses' workouts.  It's everyone's first start of their 3 yr old season so I'm not really sure who will run like they did as a 2 yr old, I do think Bern Identity is the horse to beat here but we'll see.

Mary : I'm not in any way , shape or form knowledgeable about Salix but I'm just wondering, what happens if you remove Salix cold turkey, would that have an effect on the horse ?  Like you said, they've been given it since they were 2 yr olds (or maybe just on some 2 yr olds) but I'm curious whether horses get dependent on these drugs or not or do they even know?

From what I've read so far, I'm with you on banning these drugs (slowly but surely) but I think it shouldn't be used at all as a 2 yr old unless they bleed a lot, and if they do bleed a lot, then the horse shouldn't be racing.  Yeah I know, easy to say for someone who doesn't own a horse but if I did, that would be how I would conduct my "business".

25 Jan 2013 11:47 AM
Rusty Weisner

Pete Denk,

You are correct, but I didn't take your word from it, having memories of a dull track in a recent (2011?) Florida Derby (I bet the increased heat and high humidity later in the season affect the track that way).

I looked at yesterday's six dirt races.  Most had the top 1-2 going that way all or most of the way around the track.  In three of them the winners pulled away by wide margins:  5 1/2, 7 3/4 and 6 lengths.

So, for an exacta, I'll try to pick the two fastest horses.  Itsmyluckdayis one of them.  Shanghai Bobby is another, not to mention the best horse, but I wonder about a mishap out of the 1 post.  I don't know who else (Frac Daddy?) has the best chance of being up on the pace and I have a feeling Bern Identity and Dewey Square could fall too far off it.

Someone help me.  I don't want to lose the $4 I'm going to be betting!

25 Jan 2013 11:48 AM
-Keelerman

Thank you, JayJay, for the kind words. I appreciate them!

Age of Reason;

Count me in on the Mountain Eagle bandwagon! I've got him ranked seventh on my Derby list, and if he runs like I hope he will on Saturday, I'm prepared to move him up a couple more notches.

I hope Mountain Eagle takes Nick Zito to the Derby. It just doesn't seem like the Derby when Zito doesn't have an entrant.

-Keelerman

25 Jan 2013 12:29 PM
Mary Zinke

Jay Jay, My long comment that appears at the beginning of these blog comments was also posted at the previous blog. I hope this set of comments is mainly about the Holy Bull(and I'most likely changing my picks, may post a super--not boxed) and other races held this weekend.

I'm of the opinion that there are not well over 90% of currently running horses in the U.S. that are known bleeders, so I don't think they need the Salix. As mentioned by KY, they aren't administered the drug on a daily basis, so there would be no "quitting cold turkey". Good question about how the drug has affected the horses long term. That needs to be studied. Haven't heard of dependencies on Salix, though, since it isn't given to horses for the same reason that furosemide is used for humans.    

25 Jan 2013 1:05 PM
Mary Zinke

And yes, sceptre, I did misread Thoroughbred Daily News as Thoroughbred Times from your NON-link, but that gave you the joy of correcting me, so all's well.

25 Jan 2013 1:07 PM
-Keelerman

Rusty Weisner;

I too am a little leery of Shanghai Bobby drawing the rail -- memories of poor Buddy's Saint in the 2010 Fountain of Youth come to mind -- but it's probably better than drawing the outside. With such a short run to the first turn, any horse drawing an outside post position risks getting hung wide on the first turn.

Here are a couple of interesting statistics on the subject from DRF.com:

"Fourteen of the 21 races already decided at 1 1/16 miles here this winter have been won by horses breaking from posts 1-3."

"Among the prime contenders who may have taken the worst of the draw were Dewey Square in post 6, Itsmyluckyday, post 7; and Tulira Castle, post 8."

Further adding to the intrigue of the Holy Bull is the fact that these 8.5-furlong races at Gulfstream end at the sixteenth pole, which could pose a problem for deep closers that might need more time to unleash their runs.

Taking this into consideration, along with your thoughts on the speed-favoring nature of Gulfstream, it would appear as though speed on the inside is going to have an advantage in the Holy Bull. Perhaps Shanghai Bobby and Frac Daddy will be able to take advantage of the situation?

I hope that helps. Good luck with your bet!

-Keelerman

25 Jan 2013 1:11 PM
JayJay

The horse that intrigues me and will get my eyes on is Fredericksburg.  I just can't ignore JV on this horse, so I'll have a long look at this horse during the post parade.  JV and Matz combo ?  I think it's worth a $6 investment, exacta box with the 3 favorites.

25 Jan 2013 1:43 PM
tjconway

Don't get too excited folks, over the Holy Bull, hold your breath for another month! By the way, Shanghai Bobby's post position is not a hindrance.......just a built-in excuse in case the colt loses!

25 Jan 2013 3:05 PM
Rusty Weisner

Keelerman,

Thanks. I'm beyond help, but it will be helpful for someone.  One thing, though -- I'm skeptical that 7 is that far out, even for a track with dimensions that disadvantages outside posts at this distance, and otherwise I like speed with an outside post.

25 Jan 2013 3:15 PM
Rusty Weisner

A note in Shanghai Bobby's favor:  he'll only have two Derby preps, this and the Florida Derby.

25 Jan 2013 3:31 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Pete -

If I recall correctly,  on your TrackFacts appearance, THT was high on Kauai Katie going into the BC.  While she failed trying two turns that day,  she certainly is one heck of a sprinter.

With the abundance of speed signed on tomorrow, the outside draw may prove to be quite luxurious.

25 Jan 2013 3:50 PM
Rusty Weisner

Keelerman,

I'll take Shanghai Bobby to win, over Itsmyluckyday and Frac Daddy (Scat Daddy did well in Florida) in trifectas.  Pletcher is not messing around with him here and he won the race last year.  Frac Daddy's daddy did well here.  Itsmyluckday will hold on for the money.  Good luck everyone!

25 Jan 2013 4:06 PM
sceptre

You can lead a horse to water...

(enough said on the EIPH/Furosemide subject here)

25 Jan 2013 4:40 PM
KY VET

All you have to do, is read this blog....and you will see the point i was making about the lasix issue....people that know nothing about it(jay jay) say the statement "im against all medications"..................it is an accepted statement by many, because they think meds are bad......it SOUNDS like a good idea........be nice to horses!........why let them run with wraps? if their ankles arent strong enough.............................blah blah!

25 Jan 2013 5:30 PM
KY VET

Horses bleed in other countries....who asked that idiotic question?.....ban all bleeders?   horses bleed! its a natural thing.....who cant figure that out?  

25 Jan 2013 5:35 PM
KY VET

hEY MARY.....YOU PICKED my forward gal stks  pick! by at least 6.......everybody likes k katie....see? we are the best pickers....

25 Jan 2013 5:38 PM
Plod Boy Phil

KY VET -

When my cousins, brothers and I were little kids, my aunt used to say, "Pick a green one, win a car".  Everytime you call yourself the best 'picker', it makes me think of her.

Thank you.

25 Jan 2013 6:19 PM
JayJay

KY VET : I said I don't think 2 yr olds shouldn't be given any medication at all, not ALL horses.  Stop trying to make yourself look good or smart at the expense of others.  I've seen 10 yr old kids that can argue or debate better than you.   How about you answer these two questions ?

What is your point about lasix / salix ?

Why should 2 yr olds take meds ?

Don't answer them with a bunch of questions, just straight answer as to why they're good / needed for horses.   You claim to be a horse owner so you should know something about horses right ?  So post something that actually makes sense, no more dumb comments because they just makes you look, well... dumb.  You haven't posted anything useful at all, says a lot about what you actually know, nothing.

I don't see anyone posting they like Kauai Katie, lol.  

25 Jan 2013 6:36 PM
Footlick

It was a rhetorical question, KY VET. Maybe that went over your head.

25 Jan 2013 6:36 PM
Mary

JayJay, I agree with you about Fredericksburg; the fact that JV has the mount on a Michael Matz trained horse is intriguing.  Fred's been training extraordinarily well, and his work a couple of weeks ago was kind of amazing.  That was an unusually fast work for an MM trained horse.  We shall see.

25 Jan 2013 7:45 PM
Mary

Stand corrected, Fredericksburg works on December 30th and a week ago were spectacular.  

25 Jan 2013 7:48 PM
Coldfacts

JajJay,

Your post on 25 Jan 2013 1:43 PM encouraged me to revisit Fredericksburg. Below is a summary of the age at which each colt contesting the HB made its first start and the distance.

1 Shanghai Bobby  (1ts Start - 2yrs. 2Mnt -41/2F).

2 Frac Daddy (1ts Start - 2yrs. 7Mnt -1m 40yrds)  

3 Clearly Now (1ts Start - 2yrs. 4Mnt -6F)  

4 Bern Identity  (1ts Start - 2yrs. 1Mnt -5F)

5 Sr. Quisqueyano (1ts Start - 2yrs. 1Mnt -4 1/2F)

6 Dewey Square (1ts Start - 2yrs. 6Mnt -71/2F)  

7 Itsmyluckyday (1ts Start - 2yrs. 3Mnt -41/2F)  .

8 Tulira Castle 1ts Start - 2yrs. 6Mnt -7F)  

9 Fredericksburg (1ts Start - 2yrs. 3Mnt -1 1/6F)  

10 Joshua's Comprise (1ts Start - 2yrs. 2Mnt -5 1/2F)  

Fredericksburg is the youngest colt in the field with a DOB of 8th May. His first 3 start were at 1 1/6m and he lunged at the break in his first and closed from 18L last to finish 4th beaten 2 3/4L. Five on the 10 colts made their fists start at 5 1/2F or less including 2YO champion Shanghai Bobby.  This colt did not win on debut but no ordinary colt close from 18L last to finish 2 ¾ behind the winner in a 1 1/6m Turf race completed in 1:42 and bit.

I agree he is worth a wager

25 Jan 2013 9:01 PM
Pete Denk

I don't give Fredericksburg any chance in this race. Way too slow. Bad Post. Blinkers on.

25 Jan 2013 9:26 PM
Pete Denk

Mary-

Curious if you personally watched said works by Fredericksburg.

25 Jan 2013 9:28 PM
predict

GP r-10, 1-26-13, Holy Bull stakes:

#8 Tulira Castle

25 Jan 2013 9:42 PM
JayJay

Pete : For $6 investment, I don't think I'm taking that much risk.  This is the first race as a 3 yr old for every horse in the race, this is the kind of race I like picking a longshot on because everything is unknown at this time.  Check out 2011 Holy Bull... Dialed In, slow horse, post position 9, 15 lengths off the lead at the first call.  Not saying Fredericksburg can do that but hey a small investment wouldn't hurt.

25 Jan 2013 10:27 PM
Age of Reason

Keelerman,

For some reason DRF gave Mountain Eagle a bad write up, but I agree with you-- Zito is long overdue a Derby win. What do you think of Omega Star? He's my other low-flyer that I'm really looking forward to seeing in action this weekend. Shhh...Don't tell anyone else! ;)

25 Jan 2013 10:37 PM
Kevin

Very competitive races throughout the GP Card.  

I like Bern Identity in the Holy Bull.  Primarily because of odds.  If he picks it up like Itsmyluckyday did first race at GP he should be tough. Training great.  

Also like Rightfully so in the 4th, Mountain Eagle in the 5th, and Spring Venture in the 8th.  

25 Jan 2013 10:55 PM
trackjack

Good Luck to all as we start down this trail.

Shanghai Bobby and Rosie will have a target on their back.  With the short run to the first turn, his natural ability to break well should keep him clear of trouble.  If there is any trouble at the break and Bobby is kept from the front, the others are going to do their best to keep him bottled up.

Shanghai Bobby to win but my bet will be a four horse tri box:

#1 Shanghai Bobby

#2 Frac Daddy

#4 Bern Identity

#7 Itsmyluckyday

26 Jan 2013 4:55 AM
Janis from Winnipeg

At the risk of being yelled at for being off-topic (why that doesn't happen when these dissolve into people putting up their picks for random races, I'm not sure), I thought I'd put in a link for an interesting article.

cs.bloodhorse.com/.../drugs-conditioning-and-the-american-racehorse.aspx

I'm with Mary on this one.

26 Jan 2013 5:01 AM
Mary Zinke

Holy Bull: 6/1,4/1,2,4,9/1,2,3,4,7,9

26 Jan 2013 5:07 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Age of Reason-

Not that you asked me,  but I concur on Omega Star, at least for today's race.

26 Jan 2013 7:06 AM
ROBBIEJOE25

SHANGHAI BOBBY Has too much class and foundation not to get the job done, and if he grows up just a little the sky is the limit.....not a Pletcher fan and i hope bobby dont end up like algo and eske..... got my fingers crossed

26 Jan 2013 8:24 AM
Age of Reason

Plod Boy Phil, feel free to jump in anytime! There's always a little bit of a question mark, I suppose when a handy type like Omega Star tries two turns for the first time, but he definitely appears the class of the field from a visual standpoint; that maiden win was a thing of absolute beauty. If Shirreffs shows up in Louisville with this one, watch out!

26 Jan 2013 9:24 AM
-Keelerman

Age of Reason;

It's funny that you should mention Omega Star, as I'm almost more excited about watching his race than the Holy Bull! If he can transfer his spectacular turn-of-foot around two turns, I think the sky could be the limit for Omega Star.

I find it encouraging to note that, in his debut, Omega Star finished second in a very sharp performance to Clawback, who came back to win the Jimmy Winkfield Stakes at Aqueduct last Monday.

-Keelerman

26 Jan 2013 9:53 AM
Pedigree Ann

"I looked at yesterday's six dirt races.  Most had the top 1-2 going that way all or most of the way around the track.  In three of them the winners pulled away by wide margins:  5 1/2, 7 3/4 and 6 lengths."

Ah, the infamous Gulfstream 'no-passing-zone'. The rebild of the track to a 9f oval from its 8f original configuration has made it less fair of a track. On the 8f oval, Monarchos could make a sweeping move from the back around the turn and go on past the leaders; probably couldn't win with that kind of move on the current surface.

26 Jan 2013 10:12 AM
Mike from Michigan

Something about Shanghai Bobby reminds me so much of Smarty Jones.  When 'Bobby' runs, he looks like he has that same running style as Smarty.  Hard to equal Smarty's success, but I hope 'Bobby' does great this year.

26 Jan 2013 11:46 AM
Coldfacts

Mr. SOS,

“people that know nothing about it(jay jay) say the statement "im against all medications".

Kindly stop embarrassing yourself with posts like the one above as they only underscores what is common knowledge about you.

If you meant to state that JayJay is ignorant regarding the issue, then you should state he does not know anything as opposed to nothing. For the last time this is not a forum where participants speak. JayJay therefore did not say that you are against medication. His is opinion was communicated in writing.

For one that literally hogs all  Pete’s blogs, you serve to continually diminish them by using them as a bully pulpit. You should at least respect the fact that your posts are displayed at the desertion of the moderator. You therefore have an obligation to respect his supporters and maintain some semblance of civility. To ignore these cold facts is to disrespect the process and the moderator..  

26 Jan 2013 11:49 AM
iceman92

romans much improved trainer in last 10 years. finally getting some quality derby horses to work with. dewey square will be ready to run.

26 Jan 2013 11:55 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Pedigree Ann -

re: GP 'Bias'

Regarding yesterday's races on the GP dirt,  I'm inclined to disagree with your perceptions, but can't confirm until we do our figs on Monday night. In very simplistic form:

R1: w-w, very favorable race Flow

R2: deep closer

R3: deep closer

R4: mid-pack closer

R5: mid-pack closer

R6: mid-pack closer

R8: up close stalker

The early leader held 2nd three times in the 7 dirt races, while the early second place runner finished 2nd once and 3rd twice.  

Of course,  none of this accounts for the all-important pace dynamics of each race.

Furthermore, during this year's meeting (thru 1/21/2013) there have been three important Speed Bias and one important Closer Bias.

During the 2011-2012 GP meeting, there were just two important Speed Bias days and nine important Closer Bias days.  In addition,  there were four days that came up modestly speed favoring and five days that came up modestly closer favoring.

26 Jan 2013 11:58 AM
derbygal

Gulfstream;

R1 5,8,9

26 Jan 2013 12:37 PM
derbygal

R1 #4, not #8

26 Jan 2013 12:39 PM
derbygal

Gp;

R2 2,12,1

26 Jan 2013 1:01 PM
JayJay

SA :

06 :  4

07 :  6

08 :  5

09 :  7, 3, 6

GP :  

07 :  6

09 :  9

10 :  4, 1, 9

11 :  7, 10, 12

26 Jan 2013 1:04 PM
Forbidden Apple

Gulfstream 1/26/13

Race 3- #4 Craving Carats 5-1 Rosario (plenty of talent, could wire this field)

Race 6- #1 Sister State 5-1 J.V. (speedy filly has a bright future, may not be cranked up today)

Race 7- #6 Bold Dance 5-2 Rosario (finishing fast as likely favorite)

Race 10- Itsmyluckyday 6-1 Trujillo (strong win over this surface, can sit off the pace and win from any post) Exacta's w/ Frac Daddy & Shanghai Bobby

26 Jan 2013 1:11 PM
Kevin

Closers win the first two at GP.  

26 Jan 2013 1:16 PM
derbygal

GP;

r3 2,7,3

26 Jan 2013 1:31 PM
Mike from Michigan

Gonna go out on a limb today and put $100 to win on 'Uptown Anthem' in the 5th race at Gulfstream.  Morning line longest shot on the board, but he is a big horse and once he gets cruising, he might just pull it off.

26 Jan 2013 1:50 PM
-Keelerman

Coldfacts;

Great call on Transparent! I know you've been excited about him for a while, and I must say, his victory today at Aqueduct was simply amazing. To recover from that incident on the backstretch, and still win like he did, stamps him as a very good colt indeed! How many paths wide do you suppose he was carried? Twelve? Fourteen? Watching the head-on replay, it looked as though he got taken almost to the outside rail, yet he still recovered to win by six!

-Keelerman

26 Jan 2013 1:55 PM
Forbidden Apple

Santa Anita 1/26/13

Race 3- #3 Buckleberry Grey 9-2 He ran a winning race last out, run down late by a freakish lawnmower. Wire to wire today, speedster breaks his maiden.

Race 6- #8 Doinghardtimeagain 3-1 This filly is improving with every start, made me a believer after last out win at Hollywood.

Race 8- #8 Kindle 4-1 Razor sharp, could wire this field even on dirt.

Race 10- #1 Mark of a Gem 5-1 Needs more speed today, can win from off the pace with a well timed ride from Mike Smith.

26 Jan 2013 2:12 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Kevin-

I know I'm wasting my time,  but it's imperative that one understand how races set up (the actual running,  not a preconceived notion) before judging anything about a track.

For instance, the 4th race was very fast early. Not only the 1st Q, but the fact that the 2nd Q was faster than the first at this distance all but buried the leaders.

26 Jan 2013 2:14 PM
JayJay

SA :

06 :  4

07 :  6

08 :  5

09 :  7, 3, 6

GP :  

07 :  6

09 :  9

10 :  4, 1, 9

11 :  7, 10, 12

26 Jan 2013 2:22 PM
josh

JayJay:

I know this may sound weird, but here's my reasons. Dewey Square is more of a hunch play than anything, however I love his breeding and that he is trained by Dale Romans. Since he ran 3rd behind Frac Daddy in the KJC last year. If I use Dewey Square than I must use Frac Daddy, that's just a common betting angle, but Dewey Square will offer better value the Frac Daddy. I am reluctantly using Frac Daddy because I limit myself to 3 horses behind the favorite, (unless it is a vulnerable favorite, in this case, shanghai bobby is not vulnerable) in the race in order to make my margin for profit. I don't think Frac Daddy offers much value, but there isn't any other horse in the race that I think has the same value and chance of winning. Bern Identity's odds will be low, 4/1, but I am looking for a little bit more without making a bet I don't feel comfortable with. So that's why I am using Frac Daddy, reluctantly. I guess I might be over reaching for some value, but we'll see.

26 Jan 2013 2:28 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Mike from M -

If you insist on posting wagers size,  it should be given some context. Are you normally a $10 win bettor,  $20 ?,  $200?

Good luck.....

26 Jan 2013 2:28 PM
Pete Denk

Agree Phil.

In two-turn route racing, the leader should be settling in the second quarter, not accelerating. If he wants to be around at the end...

26 Jan 2013 2:29 PM
Kevin

PBP, you may be wasting your time, depending on what you are trying to say.  Earlier in the blog, others posted speed speed speed at GP.  I was merely stating that today, so far, the track wasn't a conveyer belt.  

26 Jan 2013 2:34 PM
Plod Boy Phil

re: ME

Put another run of the mill MSW winner to sleep...it's all very mysterious to me the excitement created over these unaccomplished horses.

Very impressive race by the winner.

26 Jan 2013 2:44 PM
derbygal

GP;

R6 6,5,3

26 Jan 2013 2:50 PM
Pete Denk

Wilkes doesn't win a high enough %, but I like his 3 Gigglin Gal to hit the board at 8-1 in GP6.

26 Jan 2013 3:04 PM
Plod Boy Phil

RF Upgrade Dutch/Exacta Box

FG, Race 5

5: made modest 'quick to' move last out,  impressed in debut with a solid effort behind an Extreme for Speed.  Note - 2nd dam was an exceptional turf horse.

6: upgrade the 'Quick to' move at 8.5f last out,  turns back today

26 Jan 2013 3:42 PM
Age of Reason

Congratulations to all who pointed out Transparent today at Aqueduct; I won't jump on his bandwagon yet, but at least he'll make a nice stand-in on my Derby list to replace Mountain Eagle (may ME's Derby hopes rest in peace...) Transparent certainly did show the mental poise and professionalism one looks for in a Derby contender, and being by Bernardini (though that might be an automatic DQ-er to some) I look forward to seeing how much he can improve in the future.

26 Jan 2013 3:47 PM
Pete Denk

Herd dynamic fav Kuai Katie looked great there at unbettable odds.

Can't fault those who tried to beat her...

Will be interested to see hat the plan is for her this year.

26 Jan 2013 4:22 PM
koufax

What horse has a legit shot beating Shanghai Bobby ?

26 Jan 2013 4:28 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Koufax -

We have upgrades on the 1, 7, 8 in the Holy Bull.

26 Jan 2013 4:44 PM
Kevin

Last time I bet against Kuai Katie.  Don't know how far she will stretch out though.

So who is alive in the Pick 3 or 4 after the 25-1 shot won the 9th?  I could bet that race 10 times and never pick that horse.  

26 Jan 2013 4:50 PM
Mike Relva

I like T. Castle or Matz's horse today to win.

26 Jan 2013 5:07 PM
josh

Wow, Itsmyluckyday a new track record. This horse is legit! Great job Pete!

26 Jan 2013 5:13 PM
ROBBIEJOE25

Nice call Pete, Bobby second best today....

26 Jan 2013 5:13 PM
Pete Denk

Itsmyluckyday is for real.

26 Jan 2013 5:13 PM
Plod Boy Phil

re: Holy Bull -

Very nice races from both colts!

Itsmyluckyday did indeed run against both the Flow and the Speed favoring track in the GP Derby.

Big race from Bobby off the shelf as well setting legit fraction.

The rest should look for softer.

Congrats all.

26 Jan 2013 5:14 PM
ROBBIEJOE25

Kevin,I totally agree. I wouldnt have bet that 6 with stolen money....I thought for sure that the 4 horse was going to reel him in..

26 Jan 2013 5:20 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

If you picked Itsmyluckyday in the HB great pick.Going forward he is the NOW horse and might have really improved since switching to the Gulfstream track.Shanghai Bobby had a great 2yo campaign but going forward I will have to see how he races in the next to have any conviction he will improve from last year.

26 Jan 2013 5:27 PM
Rusty Weisner

Well done, Pete.  I like to see a blog host able to pick winners.

I didn't put him on top, but I was just playing a few bucks for the mental exericse, to get in handicapping shape after the holidays.

26 Jan 2013 5:30 PM
-Keelerman

Congratulations, Pete! That was a terrific run from Itsmyluckyday. Clearly, this horse is something special.

Also, congratulations to BlameItOn Zenyatta and Coldfacts for their insightful thoughts on Clearly Now. He outran his odds in a huge way today.

-Keelerman

26 Jan 2013 5:33 PM
Pete Denk

Thanks guys.

A good day will turn into a great day if I get the 7 home in the  nightcap at GP.

26 Jan 2013 5:37 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Pedigree Ann -

I see that your most recent post was quoting Rusty from Friday morning,  so 'never mind'.

That said, it does nothing to change to the overall content of my post which attempts to provide perspective on this main track at GP.

I did the same by providing valuable perspective regarding the truth about the one turn miles at GP and, more importantly, how the GP Derby fit perfectly into the data.

Of course, if split times mean nothing,  then one might land on Bern identity...

26 Jan 2013 5:42 PM
Pete Denk

Trafficy end for Joe Rocco and my 7...

26 Jan 2013 5:43 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Pete-

Obviously, you were included in the 'Congrats All'.

26 Jan 2013 6:01 PM
derbygal

SA;

R8 9,2,4,5

26 Jan 2013 6:15 PM
koufax

Nice pick Pete and thanks for the upgrades Phil.

26 Jan 2013 6:43 PM
josh

Pete,

You asked about Kaui Katie's plans.Well here it is from the trainers mouth.

"I'd say that's it for her at Gulfstream with the next two races at a mile-and-a-sixteenth and a mile-and-an-eighth. As I've said before, the major summer goals for her will be the Prioress and Test at Saratoga. She'll freshen up a little for now."

26 Jan 2013 6:50 PM
koufax

I am curious did anyone like Oflee Fast in the 9th at GP and if so why?

26 Jan 2013 6:50 PM
derbygal

SA;

R9 2,6,5,1

26 Jan 2013 7:00 PM
trackjack

Godd call Pete, Forbidden Apple and all who had Itsmylucky day.  

Yes, Pete, he's for real. Stalker, fast times, solid 2 y.o. foundation, strong finisher.

Bobby needed the race but I think it's time for team 'Bobby' to re-orientate their goal of wearing the rose blanket.  He may get 9f but he's not a 10.

Saw a couple good ones in Cerro and Orb.  

26 Jan 2013 7:05 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Koufax -

The race Oflee Fast ran raises eyebrows considering the way the pace scenario that he carved out.  Not sure what caused the freakish improvement,  but the horses on the Pellegrini feed are doing very well these days.

26 Jan 2013 7:55 PM
trackjack

koufax:  Did not bet it.  Watched the post parade and warm-up.  IMO Oflee Fast looked best.  Went out without a pony, under control, keen, ready.

26 Jan 2013 8:04 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Pete -

I think you are being a bit too kind in writing you don't blame anyone for trying to beat KK in the Forward Gal.  There are favorites worth taking a shot against and those that should be left alone.  While the price on her was unplayable except as a single in rolling gimmicks, the prices on the other 'contenders' were equally unplayable considering any number of basic handicapping factors.

The idea that another horse would defeat her by 6 lengths was, well,  just par for the course considering the source.

The again,  the same source scoffed at Itsmyluckyday as well.

26 Jan 2013 8:09 PM
JayJay

Pete :  Nicely done on "lucky", congrats on a great pick!  and congrats to those who jumped in on Pete's pick at the last minute, nice to see Pete got you guys a winner :)

CHIEF : Agreed, he's the NOW horse, hopefully he'll be able to keep it up throughout the GP trail (FOY, FD).  I'll have to throw a line on Bern Identity's race today, I'd like to hear what Paco and Kelly has to say about his run today, specially Paco.  I'm guessing when they got bumped at the start, he may have panicked a little and tried to rush BI to get close to Bobby, or maybe I'm just trying to find an excuse lol.   BI will stay in my derby dozen and probably move him up a notch.  Hard to gauge how the track at GP was today, closers wins some races, speedballs wins some races…it was a doozy.

26 Jan 2013 8:23 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Trackjack-

The RF boys were high on Orb going in today - thankful that the Mountain Sparrow was in the race to keep the price reasonable. Thought he ran exceptionally well considering the scenario that unfolded.

26 Jan 2013 8:24 PM
Mary Zinke

So much for picking today.  You were almost right about the margin of victory for the Forward Gal, just wish the win and place were reversed, KY. Replay time. Only played one SA race due to the rain.

Congrats to all who had the 7 in the Holy Bull.  

26 Jan 2013 8:50 PM
Age of Reason

Keelerman (and anyone else reading, feel free to jump in), was it just me or did Omega Star seem uncomfortable in the slop today--not really striding out that much? Or am I grasping at straws?

26 Jan 2013 9:04 PM
KY VET

Great pick on itsmylucky day people.....ya got me on that one......kk ran super too....knew the race was over after start....but mr happy needs the lead.....bad start.......congrats on taking so much pleasure in that race plod............nice to make you happy.......

26 Jan 2013 9:08 PM
Coldfacts

Keelerman,

I have been patiently waiting on this colt to deliver a performance like the one today. I know he was the 2-5 favorite but he easily lost 10L or more during the race and still finished in a fast time. I was very happy that the rider let him know he was in a race throughout the stretch as he is a very lazy horse and is taking his own sweet time to come to hand. Many riders would have coasted home but with lazy immature horses that’s a not a good idea. I hope he gets a lot out of the race and has finally turned the corner.

Clearly Now:

I caught the Tri and was very annoyed at myself for not catching the Super as I made a post about the toughness of Joshua's Comprise when he contested the GP Derby. Forbidden Apple advised me that he could not see him hitting the board then and he did.

I had $20 to win on Oflee Fast  but got a bad beat on Duke of the City. Consequently I was able to purchase a few more drinks to ease the pain of a missed opportunity.

27 Jan 2013 12:30 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

ItsmyLD's connections are considering sending him directly to the FD,which makes sense if the Derby is their goal, because it is a 100 pointer in the new Derby qualifying point system.

A colt that fit the Derby profile I am following, Mountain Eagle ran differently from his last mile race when he pressed the pace from the outside and had no kick left in the stretch.

27 Jan 2013 6:51 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Cerro will take trainer Motions successful prep trail in the Spiral,as Animal Kingdom and Went The Day Well did the last two years.

27 Jan 2013 6:55 AM
Coldfacts

"We got a good trip and didn't expect to break the track record by three-fifths of a second in order to win.”

What exactly does Mr. Pletcher mean by the second part of the statement above? Do trainers discount track records when races are contested? This statement sound similar to the one he made when Dunkirk was bested by Quality Road in the 2009 FL Derby. In that statement he just fell short of accusing the GP maintenance crew of preparing a speed favoring track thus giving Quality Road with an advantage.  He made no such statement when Keyed Entry set a NTR in his 3YO debut at the same venue.

As specified in a previous post the over hype Uncle Mo was kept out of HB and placed in a race specifically written for his 3Yo debut. The history of this race does not favor  2YO champions as my research reflect none  have won it. In addition Mr. Pletcher with all his dominance has only won the race once.

In the words of the former Bloodhorse operative,” He lost get over it!”

27 Jan 2013 7:49 AM
Forbidden Apple

Itsmyluckyday was on my radar even before his allowance win. Now he runs the race of his life and not even the cover story on Bloodhorse!After the allowance win, his trainer said the horse loves dirt. I believe he broke Quality Roads track record, not sure. I think he still has room for improvement, he did not appear to be all out, just comfortable with his effort.

Frac Daddy was hot and bothered before the race, not even interested in loading into the gate.

Shanghai Bobby in my opinion was gutted in the Breeders Cup. He looked like a very tired horse that managed to keep on fighting for that victory. Of course he can improve, not convinced that he wants any part of a 1 1/8 or 1 1/4 mile race.

27 Jan 2013 8:40 AM
Ranagulzion

Well Pete, it seems pretty clear now that Itsmyluckyday is a "Quality Road" type of colt after all ...track record to boot.  Congratulations on spotting that one early.  The way he disposed of Shanghai Bobby up the lane suggests big things ahead if he remains sound...got to be in the upper echelons of everybody's Derby Watch list now (I put him in my top four).  As for "Bobby" he showed his class as well as his limitatons (10 Furlongs will be a trifle long for him) ...pedigree is a big deal when it comes to the Triple Crown trail but some self proclaimed Pro doesn't seem to get it ..."Bobbby" would be a pace factor but not a winning factor in the Kentucky Derby IMO, if they keep him on the trail. However I do believe that with his obvious class and accomplishments to date, he's earned his spot in the Derby line up and his presence in the starting gates on the first Saturday in May should totally be at the discretion of his connections rather than at the mercy of this arbitrarily hatched-up points system.

27 Jan 2013 9:07 AM
Read the Footnotes

Way to go Pete! Nice pick. He'll have to show his grit in the FOY like ol'Footnotes.

27 Jan 2013 9:29 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Age of Reason-

re: Omega Star

A preliminary review of the Flow for SA's 7th indicates the race was fair for all. I'll pass along our final analysis of the race on Tuesday night after any bias is incorporated.

I can't really speak to his 'comfort' level or 'stride',  as that is not my forte. Perhaps someone more skilled at such things may have more to offer.

27 Jan 2013 9:38 AM
Forbidden Apple

I still don't understand why some people here were so concerned about the fractions of Itsmyluckyday's allowance win. The final time of 1:34 1/5 is what was clear and important.

Even the local newspaper here in Saratoga Springs had the Holy Bull covered with a title of, Shanghai Bobby defeated. Come on horse racing world, give Itsmyluckyday his due respect. So sorry to ruin the day of all you Pletcher groupies.

27 Jan 2013 10:12 AM
Plod Boy Phil

re: Mountain Eagle

"ran differently than his last race...."

Seriously?

A simple review of his modest 'w/ Flow' MSW win shows that he was lapped on the early leader as he was yesterday.  It's a very similar running line under splits that indicate a very Speed favoring scenario.  The 13-1 pacesetter was game throughout due to the soft early splits. Orb was half an hour best while ME had no excuse other than being just a horse.

27 Jan 2013 10:23 AM
Forbidden Apple

Coldfacts,

I don't remember saying anything about Joshua's Comprise, maybe I did. In case you missed my comment from a previous blog, I have a clear bias against anything that Kent Desormeaux touches. I also have a bias towards anything related to Patrick Biancone and Dick Dutrow.

As for Pletcher, it's no surprise to me that he is unhappy. Shanghai Bobby looks like the next coming of Uncle Mo, used up early and often at age 2. And I have still not heard the truth about Violence. Did he breeze on sunday 1/20/13 or not?

27 Jan 2013 10:25 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Coldfacts-

Perhaps TP was merely giving the winner, and his colt as well, a compliment in referencing the track record and the huge margin back to 3rd.  On that note, there's an awful lot being made of the 'successful' selection(s) of Clearly Now and Joshua's Compromise...one of the others had to run 3rd and fourth, nearly three seconds behind the winner.

Regarding the 2009 Florida Derby,  we know that there was no Speed Bias that day,  almost proving my point that looking to trainers for handicapping knowledge or race analysis is dubious at best.

27 Jan 2013 10:37 AM
Pedigree Ann

Congratulations to Forbidden Apple - $31.40 exacta for $4 investment.

27 Jan 2013 10:45 AM
ROBBIEJOE25

Coldfacts, just curious what did you see in Offlee Fast...

27 Jan 2013 10:53 AM
Linda in Texas

Hi Pete - i read your blog on Friday and wanted to respond to your's and -Keelerman's great choice of Itsmyluckyday as i totally agreed regardless that i really admire Shanghai Bobby. The mere name of Itsmyluckyday just rang my bell then and i also liked Kuaoi Katy though most didn't and i was afraid someone would poke fun at me if i said i thought she would win. So i deleted my remarks.  

And they both won.

I am sticking with my first thoughts from now on. Fredericksburg looked awesome and i had reservations about my  choice. Still like Shanghai Bobby and agree it is way too early for the trash heap for any of them. Just makes the road to the Derby more interesting.

Thanks Pete. I am way out of my comfort zone with so many experienced handicappers but i do enjoy the comments and information from all.  

27 Jan 2013 11:13 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Perhaps someone can enlighten me on exactly what owners and trainers should do with talented 2 yr olds.

When they run infrequently, or not at all,  they lack proper foundation...

When they are run once a month, winning multiple Graded Stakes, they are 'used up'...

It's the same people here that are overly engrossed in the Kentucky Derby in January that criticize owners and trainers for how they handle their horses - emphasis on their.

In case it's been overlooked,  Shanghai Bobby has earned nearly $2M for his connections. He's probably treated like a king, happy and healthy.

27 Jan 2013 11:17 AM
Coldfacts

Forbidden Apple,

Kindly forgive my error the actual contributor was El Kabong. My bad!

27 Jan 2013 11:42 AM
predict

Pete,

 YOU THE MAN! Nice call on Itsmyluckyday. ..Nice run by Shanghai Bobby, just looked alittle short, he'll be better next time. Can't wait for more great prep races, things are getting interesting, we might have a ton of speed in the Derby this year...

27 Jan 2013 11:44 AM
Karen in Texas

Forbidden Apple,

Yes, Violence breezed at Palm Meadows on 1/20/13. He went 4f. in 50.9; 41 out of 45.

27 Jan 2013 11:47 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

To me Mountain Eagle had a different running style.You can present an opposing opinion which is what we ALL have.This is not anything close to an absolute science or any science there are TOO MANY FACTORS THAT CANNOT BE QUANTIFIED.

27 Jan 2013 12:52 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Whatever works is what we will probably do.If a trainer has been successful at doing something more than twice he will probably repeat it.Some trainers and or jockeys have a high percentage at doing certain things and the sample could be in the thousands,although in Motions case he has done it twice and has announced he will take the same route with Cerro as far as a final prep race.

27 Jan 2013 12:56 PM
derbygal

Violence also breezed today (1-27-13), at Palm Meadows. He went 4f in 48.09; 4/43.

27 Jan 2013 1:07 PM
Kevin

Credit to all who picked Itsmyluckyday.  

Definitely will be the buzz horse, for the next few weeks anyway.  Interested to see the path they take with him. He's had 20 point beyer increases at GP from previous form.  Is this from the track or growing up as a 3 year old. I'd like to see him run somewhere else.  

My top 3 for the Derby (not right now but for the Derby) are Oxbow, Always in a Tiz and Violence.  

27 Jan 2013 1:28 PM
Kevin

Easy money in 3d at GP.  I always bet a horse whose ML starts as a mid favorite, then the betting public ignores and odds go up drastically (this case 6-1 ML to 24-1).  Finished good 2d.  $17.40 to place, 6.80 to show.  

27 Jan 2013 1:48 PM
El Kabong

Coldfacts,

In all fairness, my comment about Joshua's Comprise in the Gulfstream Park Derby was made before the scratch of Purple Egg and Uptown Anthem, either of which I still believe would have outrun Joshua's Comprise. Still, it's heart warming to know you were influenced by my advice even after those two horses representing 25% of the field of 8 were scratched,leaving only two other horses in the field of six to outrun Joshua for 4th place. I need a tissue.

27 Jan 2013 2:26 PM
trackjack

Coldfacts:

What I heard TP say with that comment was: 'The winner had a track record performance and we were right there in 2nd.  After 3 months off, didn't expect we'd need that kind of effort.'

Congrats on hitting the Tri (? HB) and having $20 to win on Oflee Fast.  Appreciated your comments on five of the entrants in the HB but I didn't see any picks from you before the race.  Maybe I missed those.

Wondering what you think of Cerro?  

27 Jan 2013 3:36 PM
El Kabong

Holy Bull,

Itsmyluckyday looked at home, and he was. He's also a Lawyer Ron with no stamina on the Dam side. He may have a say in the Florida Derby but I would be reserved at enthusiasm for his chances in the Derby. I would also be reserved if he ran in any other prep derby other than the GP raceway he prefers. Don't get me wrong now, I had him in the GP Derby and I had him yesterday, but I think this guy will find it hard to continue his success elsewhere and definitely when stretching out to 10 panels.

In all honesty, the Pletcher haters on this site who are praising Itsmyluckyday would be crucifying Pletcher  right now, if he was the trainer. Back to back 110 beyers in January? Indeed, Are the cries of gutting reserved only for Pletcher?  I don't understand the double standard and I certainly don't accuse Mr. Plesa of gutting this horse. He's running beautifully and I hope he continues to do so, but there is a double standard that seems to only apply to Mr. Pletcher.

27 Jan 2013 4:06 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

These preps are the 10 pointers for the win to qualify for the Derby field.The 100 pointers dont start until the end of March.I dont think I would want to be the NOW horse in January,that means they will have to stay at the same level for 14 weeks or so.In todays racing its more unlikely than not.

27 Jan 2013 4:16 PM
Plod Boy Phil

As previously stated numerous times,  handicappers choose to be influenced by any number of subjective factors, important or otherwise. And as stated many times,  there are things that can be measured in this game.

It's just plain nonsense to say that a horse that is a half length of a leader for two calls in one 'route' race and then is a half length off the leader for the first two calls of a second route race employed a different running style.

27 Jan 2013 4:50 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Posting bet sizes out of context is simply meaningless.  How many $20 win bets were made on that race, or on that day....

27 Jan 2013 4:56 PM
Plod Boy Phil

'Always'....

27 Jan 2013 4:58 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

To look at Mountain Eagle,s last two races only on paper I would agree that they looked the same,but in his previous race it seemed to me that he relaxed a lot more and didnt want to press the pace 3 or four wide like it seemed he did in his last race.He swooped by in his previous race with a lot of energy left while in the last race he emptied the tank pressing or chasing the pace and was empty in the stretch.

27 Jan 2013 5:28 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Fair Grounds - Race 9

4 Thespian's Fate: recorded modestly upgraded win at 10f on the WO 'wax' when last seen in Nov on a the heels of a solid race chasing the wire to wire winner of a very Speed favoring Flow.

Pace scenario may prove to very lively,  so an off the pace style could be advantageous.

27 Jan 2013 5:55 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

In the world of the horseplayer I think over the long term,lets say a year betting is more important than picking winners because you will pick more losers than winners and how you structure your bets will determine if you are in the black or in the red.If you are just betting in the win,place and show pools you need to wager more money on your winners than losers.In these pools your margin will be a lot tighter than betting in lets say exacta pools where you get a multiple of the winners win price for the majority of the races you will bet.

27 Jan 2013 6:45 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

If what is called handicapping is close to a science off the top of my head I would say it is a social science, because there are humans involved.Mathematics is an absolute science but statistics is not in most applications for the simple fact that there is always the question of how many samples are needed to get an acurrate stat for the event or quantity being measured.

I consider myself a horseplayer a lot more than a handicapper.

27 Jan 2013 6:50 PM
Plod Boy Phil

CP -

They always look good winning.  Really a miserable effort since the leader went on with it.

27 Jan 2013 7:13 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Heres the part of the remaining schedule of preps when the winner gets at least 50 points for first except for the Lexington which is not really a prep for the Derby in 2013.

Kentucky Derby Championship Series

Date Race Distance Track Location Winner 1st 2nd 3rd 4th

First Leg of Series

2/23/13 Risen Star 1 1/16M Fair Grounds Louisiana 50 20 10 5

2/23/13 Fountain of Youth 1 1/16M Gulfstream Florida 50 20 10 5

3/2/13 Gotham 1 1/16M Aqueduct New York 50 20 10 5

3/9/13 Tampa Bay Derby 1 1/16M Tampa Bay Downs Florida 50 20 10 5

3/9/13 San Felipe 1 1/16M Santa Anita California 50 20 10 5

3/16/13 Rebel 1 1/16M Oaklawn Arkansas 50 20 10 5

3/23/13 Spiral 1 1/8M (S) Turfway Kentucky 50 20 10 5

3/24/13 Sunland Derby 1 1/8M Sunland Park New Mexico 50 20 10 5

Second Leg of Series

3/30/13 Florida Derby 1 1/8M Gulfstream Park Florida 100 40 20 10

3/30/13 UAE Derby 1 3/16M (S) Meydan UAE 100 40 20 10

3/30/13 Louisiana Derby 1 1/8M Fair Grounds Louisiana 100 40 20 10

4/6/13 Wood Memorial 1 1/8M Aqueduct New York 100 40 20 10

4/6/13 Santa Anita Derby 1 1/8M Santa Anita California 100 40 20 10

4/13/13 Arkansas Derby 1 1/8M Oaklawn Park Arkansas 100 40 20 10

4/13/13 Blue Grass 1 1/8M (S) Keeneland Kentucky 100 40 20 10

"Wild Card"

4/20/13 Lexington 1 1/16M (S) Keeneland Kentucky 20 8 4 2

27 Jan 2013 8:08 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

After watching his last my preliminary conclusions (not at all final)are that Mountain Eagle will not be ready to win a triple crown race until the Belmont a race that his sire Birdstone defeated Smarty Jones and ended his triple crown quest in 2004.

27 Jan 2013 8:26 PM
JayJay

El Kabong : I think Forbidden Apple was the only one that mentioned the word "gutted" but I don't think he meant it to reflect on Pletcher.  He said he believes Bobby was gutted in the BC, which I read as, his run in that race pretty much bottomed him out and I agree.  That looked like a very tough race for Bobby.  Is he gutted, who knows, it was his first race of the year after a long break.  I personally think Bobby will come back and win a prep race but I also agree that he is not a 10F horse.  If I have missed the pletcher haters, then my apologies and ignore this.  I promise not to pop a vein.

CHIEF : Agree with your 4:16, 6:45 and 6:50 posts.  I'm not sure about Mountain Eagle, not following that horse.  Some people will never understand the fun that is the Derby Trail.  Finding horses that will potentially make the derby field before they qualify is just one of the nice things about this whole Derby fever thing, it's doesn't always have to be business stuff.  I, of course, would like to find the longshots during the prep races and hopefully they win and I have them :)

27 Jan 2013 8:42 PM
-Keelerman

Age of Reason;

You may have a point regarding Omega Star not striding out particularly well . . . I rewatched both yesterday's race and his maiden victory, and he didn't seem quite as comfortable in the slop as he did over the fast track on December 31st.

On the other hand, being a son of Candy Ride, he might be better suited in general to turf or synthetic tracks rather than dirt. I'll be curious to see if his connections try him on those surfaces in the future.

On a side note, was that not a breathtaking late rally from Tiz a Minister? I was so impressed by his performance that I went back and hand-timed his last half-mile to see just how fast he was running. By my estimates, he ran the last half of the race in about :47 2/5 seconds, with splits of :11 2/5, :23 1/5, and :35 1/5. Perhaps he's just a mud-lover that won't be able to repeat it on a fast track, but it's not like his performance yesterday was completely unexpected -- it was his first start on dirt, wet or otherwise, and he had previously flashed a similar turn-of-foot on turf. I look forward to seeing where he turns up next!

-Keelerman

27 Jan 2013 9:58 PM
JON R

Itsmyluckyday...with that Doneraile Court/Seattle Slew connection was all I needed to know. He ran to his pedigree and his looks in the Holy Bull.  He's my horse!

28 Jan 2013 8:54 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Pete-

Looking forward to the Saturday recap.

Thanks

28 Jan 2013 9:26 AM
Coldfacts

El Kabong,

I do not regularly post picks as I much prefer to wager after I have view the post parade.  There is a lot a horse’s appearance can tell about its likely performance. The PPs and works contained in programs/forms are important but there is no substitute for what the eyes tell. If I am high on a horse and it does not look the part I will not use it.

Cerro:

An impressive front running winner at 9F, on a track that currently favors horses with tactical speed. He is a nice colt who hails from the dominant Mr. Prospector sire line. His late sire Mr. Greeley belongs to the most successful category of stallions that go back to Mr. Prospector.  Mr. Greeley’s prodigies are not regularly seen on the Derby trail but he was the sire of 2006 post time Derby favorite Greeley’s Galaxy who was also run away winner of the 2006 IL Derby.

His dam sire Giant’s Causeway has not distinguished himself as a broodmare sire of dirt racers. The dam of El Padrino the 13th place finisher in the 2012 Derby was sired by Giant’s Causeway. Cerro’s second and third dam sires Nijinsky and Buckpasser makes him very appealing at the Derby distance.  His clocking of 1:50 and a bit is significant as with expected improvement he should get into the 1:48 to 1:49 ball park required to be competitive in the Derby.

I like him but have reservations about a Giant’s Causeway broodmare producing a Derby winner.  I much prefer Elnaawi another recent maiden winner from the Mr. P sire line. He is half-brother of To Honor and Serve.

28 Jan 2013 10:27 AM
Forbidden Apple

El Kabong,

It's okay to single me out, even though you are not correct about my statement. I was only pointing out that Shanghai Bobby looked tired in the Breeders Cup. I was not going to assume that he was going to dominate after a tiring effort. I don't care who trained him, he looked tired to me. He ran the race of his life in the Holy Bull, only losing by 2 lengths. I bet that he gets around a 100 or 101 for his effort. To correct you, Itsmyluckyday ran a 95 in his allowance win and a 104 in the Holy Bull. A good horse can come from any state or out of any trainers barn. The truth is that Itsmyluckyday will have to run first or second in the FL Derby in order to even qualify for the KY Derby. Shanghai has his points and he has already been sold for stud, bought and paid for. I think Plesa knows what he has and is smart to wait for the FL Derby. He loves dirt, why not Churchill Downs? It's early, just another colt on my KY Derby watch list at this point.

28 Jan 2013 10:55 AM
Coldfacts

In an address to the League of Nation, Haile Selassie  the late Emperor of Ethiopia specified that until certain issues are finally and permanently discredited and abandoned the dream of lasting world peace would be a ‘fleeting illusion to be perused but never attained’.  

To many the dream of His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum of winning the Kentucky Derby with a horse prepared in Dubai is likewise a fleeting illusion to be perused but never attained. Well, the Champagne 3rd place and Breeder Cup Juvenile 4th place finisher Fortify who is now under the care of the very dangerous Mahmood Al Zarooni has been nominated to the Triple Crown. This is a clear indication that the man who is known for stating that 'In the race for excellence there is no finish line’ has resume his quest.

Can Mahmood Al Zarooni succeed where Saeed bin Suroor has failed? Well, his record of winning big races with horses at long odds is well known. His recent giant killing act was to take down the previously unbeaten and Triple Crown seeking Camelot with 25-1 Encke in the English St. Ledger.  He used the 16-1 Blue Bunting to take down the 2011, 1000 Guineas. He used Rewilding to take down the highly regarded So You Think in the Price Of Whales Stakes at Royal Ascot. If Mahmood Al Zarooni  gets Fortify to the Derby I would not discount his chances as this trainer has a proven track record for winning the big ones with horses that are not fancied.

28 Jan 2013 11:30 AM
El Kabong

Forbidden Apple,

I didn't point you out because you're not the only one who holds Mr. Pletcher to a different standard. Your remark just happened to be the most recent.  If you watch the replay of the BCJ on the Kentuckyderby.com site, Donna Brothers asks Rosie about Trevor Denman's remark of Shanghai Booby looking "exhausted". You should listen to her response. Shanghai was anything but gutted or exhausted.  Point is I do see unfounded comments here from you and others that seem to apply only to Pletcher.

For instance, when you said:

"As for Pletcher, it's no surprise to me that he is unhappy. Shanghai Bobby looks like the next coming of Uncle Mo, used up early and often at age 2.

Now I don't deny you your opinion but Shanghai was raced 5 times as a 2 year old, It'smyluckyday, 7 times. And It'smylucky day has a taxing deuce in the bag before the end of January. So why is Shangai "used up early and often"?

This is the double standard of which I speak.

28 Jan 2013 1:44 PM
Pete Denk

Locksmith Smart Plays did ok this week, going 2-for-7.

For the second consecutive week, I picked the winner of the featured race on THS, robbing my sheet of a good play. (I generally don't put the free plays on the sheet, but maybe I should if I really like them)

I am now a little more than six months into my run as a public selector and I continue to make mistakes and learn about the types of plays that make sense to put on a tip sheet that has to be turned in about ~36 hours in advance.

28 Jan 2013 2:29 PM
Pete Denk

Locksmith Smart Plays are 27: 8-3-2 on the year.

Picking 29.6% winners with a $2 win bet ROI of $2.36.

$6 across the board wager stands at $5.83.

28 Jan 2013 2:33 PM
Pete Denk

Recap of the Locksmith Smart plays begins here...

Tampa Bay Downs

Race 8 3:55 ET

Claiming $25,000 NW2L   (1 1/16 miles on turf)

4 Chief Redneck (7-2 ML odds) drops in for a tag in the first time in his life. He went to the lead early last time vs. allowance foes, but a horse dead set on the front end flew up on the outside and put Redneck in a tough spot. The jock pulled back rather than blaze hot fractions, then made another run at the lead turning for home. He couldn’t out-finish allowance horses, but he held ok. Could be the controlling speed today vs. easier.

Odds: 3.30

Result: Nice pace/class angle winner. Sat just off the leader and rolled home by three lengths, paying $8.60 to win.

28 Jan 2013 2:36 PM
Pete Denk

Tampa

Race 10   4:57 ET

Lightning City Stakes F&M (5 furlongs on turf)

5 Madame Giry (5-2 ML odds) got caught last time after breaking poorly and then making an eye-catching early advance. That broke a 5-race win streak. The filly who beat her returns, but Madame Giry did all the work that day (put away the other speed) while the winner got a perfect trip. Madame Giry’s stalk and pounce style is perfect for this course. She gets back on the winning track today.

Odds: .70

Result: I fell for the awful morning line (5-2), thinking this would be easy money. Madame Giry didn't even run well, finishing 5th. Not the type of horse I like to tout. Was a poor decision by me.

28 Jan 2013 2:39 PM
Pete Denk

Gulfstream Park

Race 3   1:41 ET

Optional Claiming $75,000/Allowance NW1X 3yos (1 1/8 miles on dirt)

2 Cerro (Ire) (4-1 ML odds) is rounding into form nicely and should be ready to fire his best shot here third off the layoff. He finished a distant third in a fast allowance race on January 1, but he was running on well and should like the added distance today. He posted a very nice in-company work at Palm Meadows on January 19.

Odds: 2.00

Result: Wire-to-wire winner, and he set a pretty good pace doing it. One to watch maybe with more development. I did notice him bearing out a little in deep stretch but he had a right to be tired.

28 Jan 2013 2:52 PM
Pete Denk

Race 5   2:37 ET

Optional Claiming $75,000/NW1X   3yos (1 1/8 miles on dirt)

7 Mountain Eagle (3-1 ML odds) impressed when breaking his maiden by 4 ½ lengths at the one-turn mile distance. He finished in :24-2 that day, a very strong final quarter on the dirt, and his final time was two lengths faster than a NW1X later that day (won by Tulira Castle, who goes in the G III Holy Bull Stakes later today). This gelding distributes his energy very evenly, and that bodes well for the stretchout to 1 1/8 miles today.

Odds: 1.60

Result: Overbet and finished 4th. Thought he would handle the added distance much better, but this was another reminder to be picky and demand a price when betting a horse trying a new distance and facing winners for the first time.

28 Jan 2013 2:55 PM
Pete Denk

Gulfstream

Race 9 4:35 ET

Maiden   3yos (1 1/8 miles on turf)

I don’t tout first-time starters very often, but there are a bunch of things to like about 2 Twining Hearts (12-1 ML odds), who is by second-crop stallion Big Brown (off to a great start with first-time starters and turf runners). The bloodstock market was a bit cold on Big Brown when he first went to stud, but note this colt cost $120,000 as a July yearling, and was purchased by Ken McPeek, one of the best at selecting runners at auction. That means this horse is probably an impressive physical specimen. Love the workout pattern – three stiff 5f moves, then McPeek backed off of him with a 3f breeze, followed by a 5f breeze.

Odds: 14.80

Result: 9th. An overly creative tout. I will revert to my previous policy of not touting first-time starters unless I have personally seen their workouts.

Ok to like them on raceday, but need to see the horse in paddock, PP, or warming up...

28 Jan 2013 3:00 PM
It aint easy being good!

Coldfacts I agree that TP sounded like a sore loser with his comments. I always thought he was a punk and looks like one too. Also wish his derby drought would continue because he doesnt know how to get a horse ready for the derby. What is his record now with how many horses?

I also agree that Bobby is uncle mo 2.0! Keep your eye on orb he has stamina and should get 10f easily. Hopefully our hype horses can stay healthy until May 4th!

28 Jan 2013 3:03 PM
Forbidden Apple

Regardless of what Rosie said, the horse was all out and finished slow. Either way, Itsmyluckyday finished fast and pulled away easily in my opinion. He also has wins at Monmouth and Calder, not only at Gulfstream. If a 104 beyer is so taxing for Itsmyluckyday, then it must also be taxing for the horse that set the pace and was only 2 lengths behind. You can't have it both ways either. My comment of being used up is a noticable trend that I have found with highly regarded colts trained by Pletcher. Shanghai Bobby has run fast and hard in all 6 career races. I like Plesa's horse because he is just getting good and he ran straight and strong to the wire with something left.

In my opinion Violence is the more interesting Pletcher horse. If he is sound, I think he will be tough in the FoY or wherever he runs.

28 Jan 2013 3:03 PM
Pete Denk

Gulfstream

Race 11 5:35 ET

Maiden Claiming $35,000 (One mile on turf)

His running lines at Woodbine from last year aren’t pretty, but 7 Money’s Worth (4-1 ML odds) ran really well to finish third last time here at Gulfstream. He ran into traffic twice in that race and closed with good energy when guided to the outside. The winner that day was a class dropper, and it could be argued Money’s Worth was best. If he can run back to that race and get a relatively clean trip, he should win this.

Odds: 4.50

Result: Rallied for 4th after a horse backed up in his face on the turn. I liked this play. Had a big double Itsmyluckyday to this horse...oh well. I'll put Money's Worth in the stable mail just in case he lands in an easy spot next time. He can win at this level. 1 1/16 would be better for him.

28 Jan 2013 3:04 PM
Pete Denk

Sam Houston

Race 8   10:15 ET

John B. Connally Turf Cup (G3) (1 1/8 miles on turf)

4 Seal Cove (6-1 ML odds) is a lightly raced, but talented five-year-old who put together a pair of nice runs in late 2012. I really like how this horse moves into space with confidence. He had to be redirected through an opening up the rail last time and he came through beautifully. This distance is great for a steady mover like him, and I am taking a positive view that the connections are shipping to Texas for this race on the layoff and a top rider is named (JJ Castellano).

Odds: 3.20

Result: Bet down to half the morning line  and ran a wide 4th. Race was dominated on the front end. Still Like Seal Cove but will want a little easier spot next time to play him.

28 Jan 2013 3:07 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Pete-

The term 'public selector' implies free to all interested.  You are a Private Selector,  as the 'Smart Plays' are for sale.  Thus, you have much more leeway in the types of horses you use.  True public selectors tend to limit themselves to one of the top three ML choices, and, for the most part, these handicappers should not be taken too seriously.  I'm guessing that is a subset into which you have no desire to be included.

28 Jan 2013 3:38 PM
Secreteriat

Pete

We all make mistakes ot just unlucky sometimes.

After picking 3 straight P4 at Gulfstream I tried my hand at the 10c p6 for the last 3 weeks. I singled Muchu Macho and did a hedge p4 using Ron the Greek and got knocked out in the 9 by a longshot beating my picks who were 2nd 3rd and 4th.

Last Saturday I got beat by another 59.00 horse with my 2 horses finishing 2nd and 3rd.Oh the Thrill of Victory and the Agony of defeat. I did hit the Tri in the Holy Bull thanks to Coldfacts 40 to one shot so it was'nt all bad. Did well at Sam Houston in the Last P4 even though it was chalky.

28 Jan 2013 4:41 PM
KY VET

Wow! the Special group came back with its findings..........lasix helps horses!    Next....they will appoint a special group about letting horses eat something everyday........good or bad for horses?   ...................

28 Jan 2013 4:54 PM
KY VET

ITMYLUCKYDAY has as much chance winning the derby.......as coldcuts being asked to join MENSA....

28 Jan 2013 5:00 PM
Coldfacts

The 2012 Derby winner was sired by Flower Alley that was trained during his racing career by Todd Pletcher. ITSMYLUCKYDAY was sired by Lawyer Ron who ended his racing career with Tood  Pletcher.  Lawyer Ron shattered the 9F track record at Saratoga and lost the 10F Jockey Club Gold Cup by a whisker to Curlin. ITSMYLUCKYDAY dam was sired by Doneraile Court a son of Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew. Do you recall Slewacide a little known son of Seattle Slew who did not win a race and earned $2,160? You probably do not.  He was the dam sire of Funny Cide.  Doneraile Court won 6 races and earned $361K.

ITSMYLUCKYDAY has run a mile in 1:34.39 and 1 1/6M in 1:41 and a bit. Can you mention a 3YO in recent time that has been this fast? I’ll Have Another ran the 1 1/6M Bob Lewis in 1:40 and a bit on the SA Park speedway. He went on to win the Derby.  Itsmylucky day has a lot of stamina in his pedigree to carry his speed. You regarded him as an allowance horse, consequently you are expected to continue be yourself. SOS!

28 Jan 2013 8:08 PM
Lammtarra'sArc

Mary Mary....I come onto Bloodhorse and you are up to your typical tricks.  So nit picking my spelling on HRN isn't enough to satisfy that large ego of yours?.  Do you EVER contribute anything constructive to any debate?  Oh and how did your pick in the Forward Gal do?..... I bet she is still feeling that beating that KK laid on her huh?

28 Jan 2013 8:51 PM
ROBBIEJOE25

KY VET why go there.....Both statements were out-of-bounds....

28 Jan 2013 8:56 PM
Mary Zinke

It might be best to just state what the drug does, KY, but maybe not here. I get why there's this bit of delayed reaction this evening, too. Busy, busy, charming :)  

Now for more Libraic balancing. Coldfacts, I took time today to find more Derby prospects/interesting 3yos. I like the colt you mentioned, Transparent. Maybe he's finally figuring things out.

28 Jan 2013 9:51 PM
Mary Zinke

Coldfacts, Any thoughts on Winning Cause?

28 Jan 2013 9:54 PM
Mary Zinke

QP/Gallopingnamechanges.  I don't care if you like All Along's record more than Ruffian's. How do any of your sucktacious picks ever go? My Happy Face fared better than the dead last filly in the 2011 Alabama. I know; all my fault. Or am I still being smug? That chip must weigh a ton by now, QP.  

28 Jan 2013 10:42 PM
JayJay

What's HRN ?

Coldfacts : You don't need to defend lucky to KY VET, you have to remember, he's desperate to be the king of this blog (and probably other blogs.)  He'll say anything to make himself feel impotant ...

28 Jan 2013 11:02 PM
KY VET

Coldcuts.....who said itsmyluckyday was an alw horse? answer...nobody......he ran 2 great races back to back.....very nice horse!........but he wont win the derby! get your facts str.....

28 Jan 2013 11:18 PM
KY VET

people love that 3/5 kaui katie won!  great great pick people! youre awesome!

28 Jan 2013 11:21 PM
Rusty Weisner

It's idiculous that people comparing Shanghai Bobby to Uncle Mo as overhyped.  Uncle Mo ran a very fast Breeder's Cup Juvenile and then the poor horse got sick, while Shanghai Bobby was all out to win a slower Juvenile -- he wasn't hyped, he was just an ordinary legitimate favorite in this race.  

I picked him.  Glad to get that out of the way.  Hearing those bad vibes Pletcher's giving off I think he's going to have a worse Derby trail than last year, when he lost Algorithms and then Gemologist and El Padrino in the Derby.

29 Jan 2013 11:05 AM
Forbidden Apple

Transparent at $2.80 was another amazing pick!

I'm not convinced that Itsmyluckyday is my KY Derby horse. He is clearly my pick for the FL Derby if he stays sound.

29 Jan 2013 12:42 PM
JayJay

Anyone thinks the Derby winner is running this weekend ?  3 prep races : Withers, Robert Lewis and Sam Davis.

Pete : When are you posting your updated derby dozen ?

29 Jan 2013 2:53 PM
KY VET

2000 win #24 ALL OTHER 3YR OLDS! pool 1 feb 8-10.......................................EASY MONEY!

29 Jan 2013 4:11 PM
Ranagulzion

KY Vet,

Which horse will win the Derby? Please give us your top ten and maybe we can understand your berating of the top 3YO to race so far this year, Itsmyluckyday.

It not cool to knock down a classy horse without saying why or naming which ones you think are superior. You gotta act like a real Pro my friend ...earn some respect.

29 Jan 2013 5:29 PM
Mike Relva

El Kabong

Think it's highly unlikely Bobby can get 14f. It has nothing to do with my dislike for Pletcher, just an observation.

29 Jan 2013 8:00 PM
Mike Relva

Rather 10f

29 Jan 2013 8:01 PM
KY VET

RANAG...i dont have a top 10.....dont like any....3 yr old that has run the best? ITSMYLUCKYDAY.........who wont win the derby......pletcher has a bunch.............saying a horse wont win the derby has nothing to do with knocking him.............all other 3 yr olds is a great bet....most top 3 yr olds on the list are running weak times, are mostly close to the alw pars, even str mdn......which means what? that theres about 60 3 yr olds just below them....i. e. theres a small advantage.......and i have 60 horses.....like those odds......

29 Jan 2013 8:02 PM
KY VET

You people can put me down all you want.....i know what i am doing.....im on top of my game, having a great month..........just because you dont understand why i dont like itsmyluckyday,to win the derby, doesnt mean i dont think hes a bad horse.....do i have to list the top horses that dont win the derby?........you can put me down AFTER ther derby if he wins ok?..............

29 Jan 2013 8:15 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Vetky thats not easy money betting all others in the first Derby wager,easy money is going down to your nearest water fountain or decorative pond after midnight and scooping up all the nickles,dimes,and quarters the people tossed in for good luck.

29 Jan 2013 8:25 PM
Coldfacts

Mary Zinke.

This colt was not previously known to me. I watched his 2nd place finish in the Jimmy Winkfield after stumbling at the start. The first thing that struck me about him was his absolutely beautiful head.  He had to be ridden to get into contention and consequently he did not show a lot of stride extension in the last furlong.

His pedigree screams turf but he could be a colt that can perform on multiple surfaces. I have noted that his sole victory was achieved on a synthetic track and he was unplaced on turf in what appeared to be his debut race.

His sire Giants Causeway is easily the most overbred stallion in the last 9 years. Stallions that are bred to 150-200 mares each season have never been associated with a Derby winner. That said Creative Cause finished 5th in the 2013 Derby. If there is a major positive associated with Winning Cause it is the fact he is a chestnut.  Interestingly, the chestnuts sired by Giants Cause have been by far his best performers. Fountain Of Youth/ Wood winner Eskendereya was probably of his best dirt runner. Giant Oak who won the Clarke & Don and Red Giant who Set NWR of 1:57.16 for 1-1/4 miles on turf in Clement Hirsch Turf Championship at Santa Anita are chestnuts as well.  

His dam sire Kingmambo is primarily a turf sire. However, he was the sire of Belmont Lemon Drop Kid.

Winning Cause appears to be a nice colt with a stellar turf pedigree that loaded with stamina. Of his sire’s five Derby starters none have hit the board. If dirt is his preferred surface he should have a very long shot to win the Derby.

29 Jan 2013 10:39 PM
Coldfacts

KY Vet,

Listed below is a post I made on 4th Jan 2013 in response to your statement below.  

“number of 3 yr olds fast enough to win the derby...........ZERO!!!!! Which means someone will improve ”

The above quote suggests that 3YOs need to run fast or attain certain Beyer/BRIS ratings to win the Derby. This is not the case. There are many factors that determine a Derby winner and speed is just one of them. Mine That Bird, Giacomo and Charismatic and many other long priced Derby winners did not run great times as 3YOs prior to the Derby.

Algorithms was probably the best 2012, 3YO on the east coast. He recorded a time of 1:36.17 in winning the Holy Bull.  Give a second for track conditions and adjust his time to 1:35.17. Algorithm was undoubtedly a top Derby contender with his HB time and potential winner. Quality Road won the Fountain Of Youth in 1:35.01 and his time was considered fast enough to be a potential win the Derby.

Itmyluckuday recorded a time of 1:34.39 in the Gulfstream Park Derby. How can it be concluded that no 3YO has run fast enough to win the Derby with a comparison of the times recorded by Derby contenders Algorithms & Quality Road?  When is 1:34.39 considered not fast enough to be a potential Derby winner? The average mile split the last 10 Derbies is 1:36 and a bit.  

We are all entitled to formulate opinions but I do recommend that they be based on cold facts.

29 Jan 2013 11:02 PM
Coldfacts

The manner in which Revolutionary dismissed Transparent who subsequently had jaw dropping performance, suggest he should be an easy winner of the Withers. Revolutionary is from the high octane barn of Mr. Todd Pletcher and is likely to go MIA at any time. In reviewing his impressive maiden victory it was noticeable that he changed his lead several times while under rap by Mr. Dominguez.  Is it greenness or soundness issues?  Who knows!

The Darley pair of Long River and Valid hail from a stable that is rounding into form and their chances should not be discounted. Long River in particular will relish 1 1/6M of the Withers.

I will be paying keen attention to Smooth Bert as I think he is a colt that will be seriously under bet and will represent good value for money. He is May foal who is sneakily good. His sire only bred 19 mares in 2009 and I respect good horses from small books.

30 Jan 2013 8:46 AM
Coldfacts

ROBBIEJOE25,

Kindly accept my apology for the late response.

I normally evaluate MSW races a couple days ahead. I review the entries to determine the horses that have made starts and then review their races to see how they performed irrespective of where they finished. I am always on the lookout for 3YOs that show ability and whose sires bred small books of mares.   Oflee Wild the sire of Oflee Fast bred only 56 mares in 2009.  In Oflee Fast debut race he was up with the leaders and then fell back. He then made mid race move and did not appear tired but rather green. His strides were not shortening but he just looked loss. When I got the Form and saw his trainer had at 40% win rate I though he was worth the gamble as he was the speed in the race.

Smooth Bert who will likely make his next start in the Withers was sired by Smooth Jazz who bred only 19 mares in 2009. His dam sire Devil His Due hails from the Hail To Reason sire line that has been a very successful broodmare line. He is the type of colt that I like  to take chance on as he fits into one of my categories of interest.r  

The likes of Big Brown, Animal Kingdom, I’ll Have Another, Mine That Bird etc., were all products of stallion with very small books.

Do not waste your time advising the K Vet he is beyond redemption.

30 Jan 2013 9:26 AM
Pete Denk

JayJAy-

New Derby rankings after this weekend.

30 Jan 2013 10:07 AM
Mary Zinke

Coldfacts, Thank you for your reply to my question about Winning Cause.  I liked that he didn't rush up after his nose to the dirt stumble in the Jimmy Winkfield. Creative Cause was my favorite 3yo and Derby pick, so I'm not against Giant's Causeway as a Derby winner sire. I know you like Raise A Native line,statistically, though. Winning Cause is just one I'm watching, Coldfacts. No big favorite, yet. About the coat color, someone else told me to watch out for chestnut offspring of Smart Strike. How does coat color affect ability?                    

30 Jan 2013 11:11 AM
THE KEYMASTER

The IL Derby now has a $750K purse and is run on 4/20/13.  I hope the horses that run in the IL Derby end up the best in the crop and go on to trouce any horses that run in the KY Derby.  Down with CD and the most overrated race on the planet, the KY Derby!

30 Jan 2013 12:13 PM
KY VET

COLDCUTS! what are you saying? YOU LIKE ITSMYLUCKYDAY? No you dont.....so why the post? you will do what you always do......knock the horses on top, then post 30 wacky horses with good breeding.....then when one of those 30 horses wakes up to run 3rd, youll post that you talked about him earlier than anyone on here........you will knock the top trainer in the game.....question why a horse that lost a mdn race in only start isnt in the top 20 of someones list........you are a contrarian

30 Jan 2013 2:17 PM
Forbidden Apple

Freak of the week:

Friday @ Gulfstream Race 8

Midnight Watch

Stormy Atlantic-Trade Only-Unbridled

This filly can run, her works are fast. First timer that deserves a long look.

30 Jan 2013 2:50 PM
Ranagulzion

KY Vet,

It seems that you're saying the Derby winner is still "incognito" ...well, you could be right in a year like this ...we'll see but I'm liking Itsmyluckyday more and more ...until I see Overanalyze make his 3YO debut.

30 Jan 2013 2:51 PM
KY VET

1/2 shots win sometimes.....you cant beat them all the time.....(see kaui katie)......aqu race 8..#2 zero yeild just beat #5traffic sister by almost 6 a month ago......#5 traffic sister wp. to turn tables

30 Jan 2013 3:46 PM
KY VET

aqu 8th...3/5 wins...

30 Jan 2013 3:53 PM
KY VET

aqu race 9...unbeleivably hard, wide open race...ill go with #8 ice pilot wp.......7 to 1

30 Jan 2013 4:18 PM
JayJay

Pete : Looking forward to it...

Robert Lewis has 4 entries!  Den's Legacy, HHE, Flashback and Little Jerry.  What's up with that ?  I'm not even thrilled at Den's Legacy in this race, Baffert said he'll be shipping him out of town after this race so he probably won't crank him up for this race at all.  He's probably thinking Oaklawn all along for this horse.

30 Jan 2013 5:51 PM
ROBBIEJOE25

Charlestown race 5: A GRUMPY LION, His mother Roberta grump has produced a runner or too and i dont think this will be any different. His brothers and sisters all had cheap West Virginia Sires while his daddy is Lion Hearted, dont know if it makes a difference but i am headed to the window, Runco has a nice homebred on the outside by readys image so we shall see.

Pete was on 5 of the 6 locksmith plays so close yet so far away..

Jay Jay I think the derby winner is running every week lol...

Coldfacts thanks for the info...

30 Jan 2013 6:55 PM
El Kabong

Mike Relva,

Where did I say Shanghai Bobbly could get 10F's? You read into that one pal. He is not on my list of Horses who can win the Derby. I expect him to do well next out but I don't hold any hope for him or Itsmyluckyday to get 10F's, and by get I mean win or be close to the winner.  You missed my whole point that if Itsmyluckyday was trained by Pletcher, team hate todd would be blasting him for using up his colt in the prep races with no regard for the Derby. A double standard that only applies to Mr. Pletcher. It's a tired old song with no basis in reality.

30 Jan 2013 7:37 PM
JayJay

AQU Late .50 P4 ($12.00)

06 :  7

07 :  2,3,4

08 :  7,8

09 :  3,4,5,8

31 Jan 2013 11:27 AM
JayJay

Pete : Is this blog still active ?  or did you move the blog somewhere else ? :)

04 Feb 2013 12:35 PM
Coldfacts

Mary Zinke,

The coat of a horse has nothing to do with its ability. However, the majority of Storm Cat's best performers have been chestnuts and he is a bay. His dam was sired by Secretariat who was a chestnut. Could the Secretariat influence be the reason? Your guess it  as good as mine.

Smart Strike is the sire of   English Channel and Curlin who won the 2007 Breeders Cup Turf and Breeders Cup Classic. Both are chestnuts and this could be the reason for your friend conclusion.

While the coat of a horse has nothing to do with its ability, if I were in the market for Storm Cat or Giants Causeway horse, a chestnut would be my preference.

04 Feb 2013 8:53 PM
Mike Relva

El Kabong

Got news for you, if there's a "team hate Todd" he put himself there. Guess Life at Ten is a loyal fan. Right.

04 Feb 2013 11:18 PM
Forbidden Apple

El Kabong,

Verrazano just ran a 105 beyer, that had to be a taxing race early in the year. I am not a hater, I just don't fall in love with every Pletcher horse like Ranagulzion and some others on this blog. I don't know why, but I have a strong feeling that Itsmyluckyday is a quality animal. To so easily dismiss his chances in the future because of 2 good races would be foolish on my part. I like the way he pulled away at the end of the Holy Bull, he still has plenty of upside to him.

05 Feb 2013 2:31 PM
El Kabong

Forbidden,

I will take it under advisement on itsmyluckyday, my big concern for him is his running style, and breeding for the distance. Horses do outrun that dilemma but I would be more convinced of that if he ran somewhere else which I am sure he will not. Still, his performance will count. I just don't like the scenarios that bring us to his attention. It screems of 9F and no more.

05 Feb 2013 9:44 PM
Coldfacts

Mary Zinke,

“Did any of the Smarty Jones first three make your list?”

Interesting question! Are you aware that Will Take Charge and Texas Bling were both sired by stallions that are grandsons of the influential Fappiano  i. e., Unbridled’s Song and Too Much Bling.

The fact that Will Take Charge is a half-brother of the 2012 Florida Derby winner Take Charge Indy he should at least be an interesting colt. His sire Unbridled’s Song was sire of Derby runner up Eight Bells.

Texas Bling appears to be tough little guy that get no respect. After lighting up the board in the Remington Springboard Mile at 99-1 as a 2YO, he was sent from the gates in the Smarty Jones at 18-1. His dam was lightly raced and earned only $4200 from her 4 starts. She belongs to a category of mares that have an affinity with champions. His dam sire, the rarely seen Country Pine is son of His Majesty sire of Derby winner Pleasant Colony and dam sire of Preakness and Belmont winner Risen Star.

Any horse from the Mr. Prospector sire line that shows ability should not be ignored and are always dangerous in the Derby.

06 Feb 2013 10:00 AM
Forbidden Apple

Again, Itsmyluckyday has already proven that he can win outside of Gulfstream Park. He won races at Monmouth and Calder on dirt. He also ran okay on turf, I have no concerns about him getting more distance. Zero 3 y/o colts will have 1 1/4 mile experience before the KY Derby.

06 Feb 2013 10:47 AM
Forbidden Apple

This blog is so old. Is it possible to get a new unlocking winners blog every week?

12 Feb 2013 11:49 PM

Recent Posts

More Blogs

Archives