We analyzed the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) on That Handicapping Show this week, and despite the presence of several big name three-year-olds, including 2yo champ Shanghai Bobby, I picked Calder-based Itsmyluckyday.
If you didn't see his performance in the Gulfstream Park Derby on New Year's Day, it is worth reviewing. This Lawyer Ron colt runs with a low head carriage and the relaxed rhythm of a two-turn horse, yet he was tracking some very fast fractions in that one-turn mile race. He pulled away under a hand ride, stopping the timer in 1:34.39.
Despite the fact he is in form and boasts the field's best speed figure (on Beyer and BRIS), Itsmyluckyday should be a good price. He is listed at 6-1 on the morning line and could go even higher. I think Shanghai Bobby, Frac Daddy, Bern Identity, and Dewey Square all take more money than him. The morning lines at Gulfstream have been off lately, and to me it looks like they blew the lines on Frac Daddy (8-1) and Dewey Square (12-1). Both of those look too long.
For multi-race purposes, I could see myself singling Itsmyluckyday on one ticket and going 4-deep on another, where I'll look to press other opinions in the sequence.
Both for entertainment purposes and betting, Gulfstream has put together a great Saturday card, full of intriguing three-year-old races. In addition to the Holy Bull, Gulfstream has the Forward Gal Stakes (G2), which features a matchup of My Happy Face, Spring Venture, Kuai Katie, and for added entertainment throw in the undefeated Puerto Rican filly Fusaichiswonderful.
The card also includes a pair of NW1X allowance races for three-year-olds going 1 1/8 miles on the dirt, a strong NW2X/Optional claimer for older horses, and another allowance race for three-year-olds going 1 1/8 miles on turf.
Time to get to work!
Just saw that a bunch of people on Twitter are giving trainer Graham Motion grief for putting Joel Rosario on Animal Kingdom on Feb. 9 in the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap (replacing the injured Ramon Dominguez). I think Rosario will be great on Animal Kingdom. The matchup vs. Point of Entry is going to be a good one.