By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
Who will prevail in Saturday's
$1 million Whitney (G1) at Saratoga? The 1 1/8-mile "Win and You're In"
qualifier for the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) has drawn a tremendous field with
plenty of viable win contenders.
A quick pace is expected.
Even with #1 Mindframe (5-2) expected to scratch, there's plenty of speed in
the entries. #8 Contrary Thinking (50-1)
is slated to serve as a pacemaker for stretch-running stablemate #5 Sierra Leone (2-1). #4 Mama's Gold (50-1) is a pure frontrunner
who has carved out the pace in each of his last six starts. #7 White Abarrio (4-1), winner of the Whitney
and Breeders' Cup Classic two years ago, often races close to the pace. So too
does 2023 champion two-year-old male #9
Fierceness (9-5).
But will the pace be
extreme? I don't think so. Contrary Thinking was a stretch-running sprinter
before leading gate-to-wire (through modest fractions) to win a one-mile
allowance at Aqueduct last time out. Mama's Gold may be a frontrunner, but he
hasn't run six furlongs faster than 1:11.02 in his last six starts. White
Abarrio has speed, but he's not a need-the-lead type and only rarely leads
during the first three calls of a race. Meanwhile, Fierceness hasn't found
himself setting the early pace since wiring the 2024 Florida Derby (G1).
The presence of Contrary
Thinking as a pacemaker should ensure honest fractions, but I don't see the
tempo being destructive. That's why I'm willing to back Fierceness as my top
choice in the Whitney.
Fierceness loves Saratoga.
He's won three of his four starts over this track, including the 2024 Travers
(G1) over future Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna and champion three-year-old
male Sierra Leone. His lone defeat at Saratoga came over a sloppy, sealed track
in the Metropolitan H. (G1) two months ago, a race in which Fierceness finished
second to Malibu (G1) winner Raging Torrent.
Two starts back, over a fast
track, Fierceness unleashed an eye-catching burst of speed to win the Alysheba
(G2) at Churchill Downs by 1 1/2 lengths against Oklahoma Derby (G3) winner
Most Wanted. He earned a powerful 107 Beyer Speed Figure, one of the highest
numbers posted by any Whitney entrant this year.
Fierceness ran even faster
on the Beyer scale last year. He posted a 111 in the Travers and repeated that
number in the Breeders' Cup Classic, when he finished second by 1 1/2 lengths
against Sierra Leone. I would argue Fierceness ran the best race in the
Breeders' Cup Classic, considering he pressed and set intense fractions of
:22.43, :44.96, and 1:09.44 that favored deep-closing Sierra Leone.
If Fierceness, on his best
day, can chase a sub-:45 half-mile and still finish second in the 1 1/4-mile
Breeders' Cup Classic, I don't think he'll be bothered by pace in the shorter
Whitney. Drawing outside all the other speed horses should afford him options
for working out a perfect trip. I believe Fierceness can settle behind Contrary
Thinking and Mama's Gold, pounce when called upon, and deliver a fourth win
from five starts at Saratoga.
For second place, I'll take
Sierra Leone. When he gets a fast pace to chase, he can strike at the highest
level, as he demonstrated in the Breeders' Cup Classic and also in the 2024
Blue Grass (G1). When facing relaxed fractions, he tends to settle for second
or third place, as he's done in six of his last seven starts. He exits a runner-up
finish to Mindframe in the Stephen Foster (G1), in which he closed into
fractions of :47.94 and 1:11.46. Any quicker pace fractions in the Whitney
should help Sierra Leone secure a spot in the top two.
If you want to add a
longshot to your tickets, #10 Post Time (12-1)
is another runner who stands to benefit from a contested pace. The
stretch-running five-year-old enjoyed a strong 2024 season, finishing second in
the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1) and Metropolitan H. (G1) and third (beaten
only 2 1/2 lengths) in a fast edition of the Whitney.
Post Time has won two out of
three starts this year and exits a fast-finishing 3 1/2-length triumph in a
slow-paced renewal of the Deputed Testamony S. at Laurel Park. Consistency is a
strong suit for Post Time (he's never finished out of the trifecta), and his
best Beyers are fast enough to put him in the hunt for another top-three Whitney
finish.
Selections
1st: Fierceness
2nd: Sierra Leone
3rd: Post Time
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the Whitney?
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
