By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
The Arlington Million (G1)
dates back to 1981 and is fabled as the first Thoroughbred horse race offering
a $1 million purse, which it retains to this day.
Despite its prestige and
lengthy history, the Arlington Million has never been won by a Kentucky Derby
(G1) champion. Even though both races take place over 1 1/4 miles, the fact the
Derby is a dirt race and the Arlington Million a turf test discourages Derby
winners from giving the Million a try.
Perhaps #1 Mystik Dan (9-2) can complete the elusive double when the 2025
Arlington Million is contested at Colonial Downs this Saturday.
Mystik Dan has never run on
turf, but his talent is undeniable. In 2024, he won the 150th running of the
Kentucky Derby, prevailing in a three-horse photo finish over future Breeders'
Cup Classic (G1) winner Sierra Leone and eventual Saudi Cup (G1) conqueror
Forever Young. And while Mystik Dan went off form for a while, he's come around
in recent starts, winning the Blame (G3) and finishing fourth by 2 1/2 lengths
in a deep renewal of the Stephen Foster (G1).
Switching to turf is
obviously an obstacle, but not an insurmountable one. This year's Arlington
Million field has come up light by historical standards. Mystik Dan is the only
Grade 1 winner in the field, and the majority of his rivals are winless this
year.
From a pedigree perspective,
there's no reason to believe Mystik Dan will struggle on turf. His sire,
two-time Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1) winner Goldencents, has proved effective
as a sire of turf horses. One of his best runners is Going to Vegas, a two-time
winner of the 1 1/4-mile Rodeo Drive (G1).
Meanwhile, Mystik Dan's dam
is Ma'am, a daughter of Colonel John. Colonel John is the sire of 1 1/8-mile
Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) winner La Coronel and Breeders' Cup
Juvenile Turf (G1) runner-up Airoforce.
Moving beyond pedigree,
Mystik Dan's on-track performances suggest he's well-suited to grass racing.
He's shown time and time again that he loves saving ground inside and behind
rivals, winning the Kentucky Derby, Blame, and Southwest (G3) with such
tactics. This style is often effective in turf racing, and drawing the rail in
the Arlington Million affords Mystik Dan a picture-perfect opportunity to work
out his preferred trip.
Mystik Dan's acceleration is
also noteworthy. Turf races are often won with strong bursts of homestretch
speed, which Mystik Dan has shown on a few occasions. When he broke his maiden sprinting
5 1/2 furlongs, he blazed his fifth furlong in :11.35 and his final sixteenth
in :06.04 to win by 7 3/4 lengths. And in the 1 1/16-mile Southwest, he
rocketed his final sixteenth in :05.93, which is difficult to do in a dirt
route race.
For all these reasons,
Mystik Dan is my choice to win the Arlington Million. I envision him saving
ground behind speed horses #2 Time Song (30-1),
#3 Vesting (12-1), and #4 Runaway Storm (20-1) before
unleashing a sharp homestretch bid to become the first Kentucky Derby/Arlington
Million winner.
For second place, I'll
support #8 Integration (8-5),
runner-up in the 2024 Arlington Million. It's hard to believe Integration
hasn't managed to win a Grade 1 race yet, considering he's recorded a quintet
of top-three finishes at the highest level. That tally includes runner-up
finishes this year in the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1), Maker's Mark Mile (G1),
and Manhattan (G1). In the latter race, Integration closed nearly five lengths
in the final furlong to fall a head shy of Deterministic, who returned to win
the Fourstardave (G1) in his next start.
#5 Cairo (7-2),
a challenger from overseas, is my third choice. Although he's gone winless in
16 starts since taking the Patton S. in March 2023, Cairo is a capable group stakes
performer who exits a third-place finish in the one-mile Queen Anne (G1) at
Royal Ascot, one of his best efforts to date.
It's possible 1 1/4 miles is
farther than Cairo wants to run, given that he's winless in nine starts over
distances from 1 1/8 miles to 1 5/16 miles. But even though he was tiring at
the end of the 1 5/16-mile Huxley (G2) earlier this year, he still held for
second place, suggesting he can last for a top-three finish in the Arlington
Million.
Selections
1st: Mystik Dan
2nd: Integration
3rd: Cairo
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the Arlington Million?
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
